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1.
王雪梅  翟晓燕  郭良 《水文》2023,43(4):45-52
流域暴雨山洪过程时空异质性强,准确评估雨洪变化特性和洪水危险性对山洪灾害防治具有重要意义。以7个降雨特征指标和6个洪水特征指标刻画流域场次雨洪特性,采用中国山洪水文模型和洪水频率指标相结合,模拟和评估口前流域洪水过程及其危险性。结果表明：场次洪水洪峰模数、洪峰时间偏度、高脉冲历时占比、涨落洪速率与降雨总量、平均雨量、最大雨强、雨峰位置系数、基尼系数等降雨特征指标显著相关,三场致灾洪水过程的降雨均呈现量级大、强度大、历时短、暴雨中心偏中下游的特点;率定期和验证期的平均径流深相对误差均在9%以内,平均洪峰流量相对误差均在11%以内,平均峰现时间误差均在1.7 h以内,平均Nash-Sutcliffe系数为0.80和0.76;各场次洪水有0.0%～93.3%的河段流量达到一般危险及以上等级,三场致灾洪水过程的危险性等级最高,分别有80.0%、35.0%和1.7%的小流域河段流量达到高危险及以上等级。研究可为山区小流域暴雨洪水危险性评估、灾害响应和复盘等提供技术支撑。  相似文献   

2.
A flood risk model was developed for the Czech Republic to calculate the probability of insured losses from flood events. The model was GIS based, making use of a 100 m horizontal resolution DTM and a network of the major rivers in the country. A review of historical flooding was undertaken to define the worst and most widespread flood events. Synthetic flood events were generated based on a study of the spatial variation in magnitude of river flows from selected historical flood events going back to 1935. A total of 30 synthetic events were generated each providing peak flows at 25 gauging stations throughout the country. The flows were converted into flood levels using rating equations based on information provided by the Czech Hydrological and Meteorological Institute. The extent of and depth of flooding was mapped on a cell by cell basis by applying an automated procedure developed using the grid option within the Arc/Info GIS. The flood depths were combined with maps of the postal codes to define an average flood depth per post code. The model was calibrated using maps of the observed flood extents from 1997 and 2002.  相似文献   

3.
Flood events have the highest damage costs and losses among natural hazards. There are different types of measures to mitigate flood damage costs and their negative consequences. Application of flood-control reservoirs or detention dams, as one of the main measures, may decrease devastating flood effects or even may cause to intensify flood damages in the watershed by a poor design with tremendous construction costs. Optimal design of a flood-control multi-reservoir system can simultaneously minimize investment costs of constructions and potential flood damage costs. This study proposes a simulation-based optimization approach to optimize the design of multi-reservoirs for flood control in the watershed by coupling the MIKE-11 hydrodynamic model and the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization model. The present approach provides the Pareto optimal solutions between two conflict objectives of minimizing total investment costs and the expected flood damage costs in the watershed. Application of the proposed model for a small watershed in central part of Iran as a case study shows that optimal designs of multi-reservoir systems can efficiently reduce construction costs, flood peaks and their corresponding damage costs at the downstream reaches of the basin.  相似文献   

4.
In April 2010, an ice/rockfall into Lake 513 triggered a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) along the Chucchun River in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru. This paper reconstructs the hydrological characteristics of this as yet undocumented event using a 1D flood model prepared with HEC-RAS. The principle model inputs were obtained during detailed field surveys of surface characteristics and topography within the river and across the adjacent floodplain; a total of 120 cross-sections were surveyed. These inputs were refined further by eyewitness accounts and additional geomorphological observations. The flood modelling has enabled us to constrain the extent of the water surface and its elevation at each cross-section in addition to defining the peak discharge (580 m3 s?1). These modelling results show good agreement with other information about the flood including: flood marks and minimum flood levels; the lake displacement wave height; the extent of the flooded area; and the travel time from Lake 513 to the confluence with the Santa River. This demonstrates that the model offers a reliable reconstruction of the basic hydrological characteristics of the GLOF. It provides important information about the flood intensity and significantly improves our ability to model future flood scenarios along both the studied river and within neighbouring catchments. The flood hazard, defined by the flood depth during peak discharge, shows that the majority of the damaged infrastructure (houses, bridges, and a drinking water treatment plant) was only subjected to low or medium flood intensities (defined by a maximum water depth of less than 2 m). These low flood intensities help to explain why the flooding caused comparatively minor damage despite the significant public attention it attracted.  相似文献   

5.
Regional snowmelt flood disasters (RSFDs) can cause significant direct tangible damage which generally refers to the physical destruction due to direct contact with the flood water, such as damage to buildings, croplands, livestock, and infrastructure. Information about people, habitations, and infrastructure affected by the flood is essential for disaster responders and the humanitarian community to plan and coordinate emergency response activities. However, this direct tangible damage information obtained in the ground is limited, incomplete, contradictory, and sometimes impossible to obtain in a short time. Earth observation satellites help overcome operational uncertainties after the RSFDs. Here, we present an improved rapid direct tangible damage assessment model using HJ-1 and GF-1/2 satellite images. We selected the Altay region in northern Xinjiang, China, as the study area, and investigated a RSFD occurring in spring 2017. A series of HJ-1 and GF-1 images were used to track the flood extent over the duration of the disaster, and the maximum affected flood area was assigned as the area in which direct tangible damage occurred. Pre-disaster GF-2 images were then used to estimate direct tangible damage to habitations (2375 households and 6388 rooms), infrastructure (102 km of roads), and affected population (7125) in the flood area, which covered an area of 185,240 m2. Our method is an effective approach for the design of rescue plans and disaster subsidy programs.  相似文献   

6.
Grid system for flood extent extraction from satellite images   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  
Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards in the world, affecting more people and causing more property damage than any other natural phenomena. One of the important problems associated with flood monitoring is a flood extent extraction from satellite imagery, since it is impractical to acquire the flood area through field observations. This paper presents a new method to the flood extent extraction from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images that is based on intelligent computations. In particular, we apply artificial neural networks, self-organizing Kohonen’s maps (SOMs), for SAR image segmentation and classification. We implemented our approach in a Grid system that was used to process data from three different satellite sensors: ERS-2/SAR during the flooding on the river Tisza, Ukraine and Hungary (2001), ENVISAT/ASAR WSM (Wide Swath Mode) and RADARSAT-1 during the flooding on the river Huaihe, China (2007).  相似文献   

7.
This paper aims to address the question of how the parameter uncertainty associated with a mixed conceptual and physical based rainfall-runoff model (AFFDEF) has influences on flood simulation of the semiarid Abolabbas catchment (284 km2), in Iran. AFFDEF was modified and coupled with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) algorithm to simulate four flash flood events. Analysis suggests that AFFDEF parameters showed non-unique posterior distributions depending on the magnitudes and duration of flash flood events. Model predictive uncertainty was heavily dominated by error and bias in soil antecedent moisture condition that led to large storage effect in simulation. Overall, multiplying parameter for the infiltration reservoir capacity and multiplying parameter for the interception reservoir capacity along with potential runoff contributing areas were identified the key model parameters and more influential on flood simulation. Results further revealed that uncertainty was satisfactorily quantified for the event with low to moderate flood magnitudes while high magnitude event exhibited unsatisfactory result.  相似文献   

8.
In the middle of 2007, a severe flood affected the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. This is a natural disaster that takes people’s lives, destroys livestock, infrastructures and communication systems and, damages crops and fish ponds. Despite many adverse impacts, the flood situation is an accepted phenomenon to the citizens of Bangladesh, due to the immense increase of soil fertility due to the flood, plus, the recharge of aquifer, ecosystem and fish. The flood of 2007 was the 5th major flood of the last 20 years when more than thirty-five percent of the area of the country was inundated with flood water. As in the past, the flood of 2007 had its own significance. The geography of the country contains a floodplain delta of three major river basins: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna (GBM). The mean monthly rainfall plot from the TRMM satellite data has shown that for both the Meghna and Brahmaputra basins, the rainfall was higher during July 2007 than any other months of the last 2 years. This excess rainfall had accumulated in the Brahmaputra and Meghna rivers and carried downstream to Bangladesh. This was the main cause of the flooding in 2007. The first crossing above the danger level of the river waters was observed at Durgapur station of the Someswari and at Sunamganj station of the Surma on the nineteenth of July, 2007 inside Bangladesh. In terms of magnitude of the peak and duration of the flood, the Brahmaputra was higher in 2007 than during 2004. However, the Ganges river water level never crossed the danger level during flood of 2007. The Meghna was lower during the flood peak for the duration of the flood in 2007. The year–to-year variability in both the magnitude and duration of the flood suggests changes in rainfall and landuse pattern of the catchment.  相似文献   

9.
Global Perspectives on Loss of Human Life Caused by Floods   总被引：14，自引：4，他引：10  
Every year floods cause enormous damage all over the world. This study investigates loss of human life statistics for different types of floods and different regions on a global scale. The OFDA/CRED Database contains data on international disasters and is maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels (CRED) in cooperation with United States Office for Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). Information from this source on a large number of flood events, which occurred between January 1975 and June 2002, is evaluated with respect to flood location and flood type. Due to the limited availability of information on coastal flood events, the scope of this study is limited to three types of freshwater flooding: river floods, flash floods and drainage problems. First, the development of loss of life statistics over time is discussed. Second, the dataset is analysed by region, by flood type and by the combination of type and region. The study shows that flash floods result in the highest average mortality per event (the number of fatalities divided by the number of affected persons). A cross analysis by flood type and location shows that average mortality is relatively constant for the different types over various continents, while the magnitude of the impacts (numbers of killed) and affected for a certain type varies between the different continents. On a worldwide scale Asian river floods are most significant in terms of number of persons killed and affected. Finally, a comparison with figures for other types of natural disasters shows that floods are the most significant disaster type in terms of the number of persons affected.  相似文献   

10.
Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island’s severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum.  相似文献   

11.
Flood frequency analysis is a pre-requisite for setting up and safeguarding of many hydraulic structures, such as dams, barrages, check-dams, culverts and urban drainage systems. In the flood frequency analysis, partial duration series (PDS) may be considered when dealing with values exceeding certain limits causing floods. In fact, the PDS is capable of getting more information about extreme events than the annual maximum series (AMS). Additionally, an assumption that, the magnitude of the extreme events of a PDS is best described by a generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The present work investigates the at-site flood frequency analysis to find the average number of peaks (λ) for modelling the PDS on the basis of the PDS/GP assumption and variability in the GP parameters coupled with the quantile estimation with an increase in the value of average number of peaks (λ) each year in the Mahanadi river system, Odisha, India. Also, to verify the PDS/GP assumption we tested seven different frequency distributions (Exponential, Gumbel, logistics, generalized extreme value (GEV), Lognormal (LN), generalized logistics (GL) and Pearson Type 3). Extensive daily discharge data collected from 23 gauging sites were used for the analysis. The results indicate precision and stability of GP distribution parameters for λ?=?4 for almost all the discharge sites. The peak flood estimated for various return periods in the Mahanadi river system using GP distribution is endowed with high correlation statistics for this λ value.  相似文献   

12.
The Scheldt is a tidal river that originates in France and flows through Belgium and the Netherlands. The tides create significant flood risks in both the Flemish region in Belgium and the Netherlands. Due to sea level rise and economic development, flood risks will increase during this century. This is the main reason for the Flemish government to update its flood risk management plan. For this purpose, the Flemish government requested a cost-benefit analysis of flood protection measures, considering long-term developments. Measures evaluated include a storm surge barrier, dyke heightening and additional floodplains with or without the development of wetlands. Some of these measures affect the flood risk in both countries. As policies concerning the limitation of flood risk differ significantly between the Netherlands and Flanders, distinctive methodologies were used to estimate the impacts of measures on flood risk. A risk-based approach was applied for Flanders by calculating the impacts of flood damage at different levels of recurrence, for the base year (2000) and in case of a sea level rise of 60 cm by 2100. Policy within the Netherlands stipulates a required minimal protection level along the Scheldt against storms with a recurrence period of 1 in 4,000 years. It was estimated how flood protection measures would delay further dyke heightening, which is foreseen as protection levels are presently decreasing due to rising sea levels. Impacts of measures (safety benefits) consist of delays in further dyke heightening. The results illustrate the importance of sea level rise. Flood risks increased fivefolds when a sea level rise of 60 cm was applied. Although more drastic measures such as a storm surge barrier near Antwerp offer more protection for very extreme storms, a combination of dykes and floodplains can offer higher benefits at lower costs.  相似文献   

13.
Hydrodynamic flow modeling is carried out using a coupled 1D and 2D hydrodynamic flow model in northern India where an industrial plant is proposed. Two flooding scenarios, one considering the flooding source at regional/catchment level and another considering all flooding sources at local level have been simulated. For simulating flooding scenario due to flooding of the upstream catchment, the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the main river is routed and its flooding impact at the plant site is studied, while at the local level flooding, in addition to PMF in the main river, the probable maximum precipitation at the plant site and breaches in the canals near the plant site have been considered. The flood extent, depth, level, duration and maximum flow velocity have been computed. Three parameters namely the flood depth, cross product of flood depth and velocity and flood duration have been used for assessing the flood hazard, and a flood hazard classification scheme has been proposed. Flood hazard assessment for flooding due to upstream catchment and study on local scale facilitates determination of plinth level for the plant site and helps in identifying the flood protection measures.  相似文献   

14.
The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk assessment methodology for the Elbe River. A 1D hydraulic routing model is extended by including the effect of planned (regulated and unregulated) and unintended retention (dike breaches) on the peak water levels. We further add an inundation model for dike breaches due to dike overtopping and a macroscale economic approach to assess the flood damage. The flexible approach to model the effects of measures by means of volume storage functions allows for rapid assessment of combinations of retention measures of various proposed dimensions and at multiple locations. The method allows for the comparison of the flood risk at the scale of the main river trajectory, which has not been possible for the Elbe River to date. The model is applied to a series of exemplary flood risk mitigation measures to show the downstream effects and the additive effects of combinations of measures on the flood risk along the river. We further demonstrate the increase in the downstream flood risk resulting from unilateral decisions to increase the dike height at upstream locations. As expected, the results underline the potential effectiveness of increased retention along the river. The effects of controlled retention at the most upstream possible location and largest possible extent generate the most pronounced reduction of average annual damage. As expected, the effect of uncontrolled retention with dike relocations is significantly lower.  相似文献   

15.
This study presents a chronology of historical and measured flood events in the Papaloapan River basin of Mexico during 450 years. Twenty-eight historical floods were recorded during the period 1550–1948 on this river and one flood event (1969) in the instrumental era (1949–2000), of which 14 were extraordinary floods and only 15 were catastrophic ones. There were several flood-rich decades during 1860–1870, 1880–1890, 1920–1930 and 1940–1950. Wavelet analysis found a significant flooding periodicity of 58 years. The wavelet coherence analysis found that flooding had an in-phase relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and also with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Logistic regression corroborated that there exists a positive relationship between floods events and these two natural climatic oscillations. The logistic regression model predicted correctly 92% of flood events.  相似文献   

16.
Peter R. Waylen 《GeoJournal》1991,23(4):361-373
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17.
河漫滩是洪水漫溢过自然堤而在河流两岸水流流速降低的地貌环境下所塑造的河流地貌单元,是洪水过程所形成的独特沉积体系,蕴含着大量的河流水文信息,但由于河流侧向摆动、河漫滩沉积速度较快等原因,造成河漫滩沉积环境变化较快,河漫滩沉积体系长期以来没有得到足够的重视。以鄱阳湖修河下游永修三角乡修河右岸的近现代河漫滩沉积序列为例,基于137Cs比活度测试和事件性沉积建立时间标尺,依据粒度组份等指标,结合气象和水文观测数据,探究了器测以来河漫滩沉积体系对洪水事件的记录及记录特点。研究结果表明:较大洪水期间水动力不稳定、粒度较粗、分选差(或者好)、粒度跨度宽;该剖面揭示了1953年来16次较大洪水年份的14次,检出率高;平均粒径(μm)和SS(分选系数×粒径跨度)等指标对洪水事件的检出最好。这样揭示出来的洪水,可称为异常洪水,有别于基于滞水沉积所反演的极端洪水事件。研究在一定程度上能拓宽古洪水的研究内容与研究内涵。  相似文献   

18.
河流堰塞的地貌响应   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
堰塞作为一种极端地表过程,深刻影响着河流地貌的变化,特别是河流纵剖面的变化。其对河流纵剖面的影响主要体现在两方面:一方面,堰塞坝将抬高局地的侵蚀基准面,阻碍了上游河道侵蚀,形成河流裂点;另一方面,堰塞坝溃决往往形成大型/巨型洪水,造成下游河道和岸坡的剧烈侵蚀。稳定的堰塞坝形成后,在1~105 a的时间尺度上对河流裂点的发育以及河流纵剖面变化上甚至会超过构造、气候和岩性作用,占据主导。本文在简要概述堰塞地貌相关概念的基础上,介绍了部分河流堰塞的研究方法和案例,以及河流堰塞的发育过程和研究意义。目前多仅从堰塞坝与河流纵剖面的空间关系的相关性来论证其地貌响应,并且发现一些堰塞坝与河流纵剖面的相关性,但是也有一些古堰塞坝对现代河流纵剖面的影响并不显著,原因可能与堰塞坝规模、溃决洪水次数、堵江的持续时间和距今年代的不同有关,目前还缺乏深入研究。  相似文献   

19.
Land use has changed in the Daqinghe watershed during 1956–2005, and it has influenced the flood peak and volume. In order to reveal the effects of land use change on flood characteristics in Daqinghe watershed, we selected 2 sub-watersheds and used remote-sensed land use data of 1980 and 1996 to analyze changes in land use and also selected several combinations of similar rainfall events and the corresponding flood events to show how changes in land use affect floods. The forest and urban area increased and other types decreased, and flood peaks and volumes tended to decrease under similar rainfall events. To quantify the extent of change in land use affecting floods, a hydrological model incorporating the land use was established. The model combines infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff generation mechanism in each type of land use, and the simulation results agreed well with the measured flood processes in the two selected watersheds. Several floods of different return intervals were selected to be modeled under the 1980 and 1996 land use conditions. The results show that both flood peak and volume decreased under the 1996 land use condition in comparison with the 1980 land use condition in the two watersheds. Most of the flood peaks decreased <5 %, but the volume decreased to a greater extent. This result can be helpful in modifying design flood.  相似文献   

20.
Extreme sea-level events (e.g. caused by storm surges) can cause coastal flooding, and considerable disruption and damage. To understand the impacts or hazards expected by different sea levels, waves and defence failures, it is useful to monitor and analyse coastal flood events, including generating numerical simulations of floodplain inundation. Ideally, any such modelling should be calibrated and validated using information recorded during real events, which can also add plausibility to synthetic flood event simulations. However, such data are rarely compiled for coastal floods. This paper demonstrates the capture of such a flood event dataset, and its integration with defence and floodplain modelling to reconstruct, archive and better understand the regional impacts of the event. The case-study event comprised a significant storm surge, high tide and waves in the English Channel on 10 March 2008, which resulted in flooding in at least 37 distinct areas across the Solent, UK (mainly due to overflow and outflanking of defences). The land area flooded may have exceeded 7 km2, with the breaching of a shingle barrier at Selsey contributing to up to 90 % of this area. Whilst sea floods are common in the Solent, this is the first regional dataset on flood extent. The compilation of data for the validation of coastal inundation modelling is discussed, and the implications for the analysis of future coastal flooding threats to population, business and infrastructure in the region.  相似文献   

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