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1.
The Himalayas are one of very active seismic regions in the world where devastating earthquakes of 1803 Bihar–Nepal, 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar–Nepal, 1950 Assam and 2011 Sikkim were reported. Several researchers highlighted central seismic gap based on the stress accumulation in central part of Himalaya and the non-occurrence of earthquake between 1905 Kangra and 1934 Bihar–Nepal. The region has potential of producing great seismic event in the near future. As a result of this seismic gap, all regions which fall adjacent to the active Himalayan region are under high possible seismic hazard due to future earthquakes in the Himalayan region. In this study, the study area of the Lucknow urban centre which lies within 350 km from the central seismic gap has been considered for detailed assessment of seismic hazard. The city of Lucknow also lies close to Lucknow–Faizabad fault having a seismic gap of 350 years. Considering the possible seismic gap in the Himalayan region and also the seismic gap in Lucknow–Faizabad fault, the seismic hazard of Lucknow has been studied based on deterministic and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Results obtained show that the northern and western parts of Lucknow are found to have a peak ground acceleration of 0.11–0.13 g, which is 1.6- to 2.0-fold higher than the seismic hazard compared to the other parts of Lucknow. 相似文献
2.
The seismicity and the associated seismic hazard in the central part of the Pannonian region is moderate, however the vulnerability is high, as three capital cities are located near the most active seismic zones. In our analysis two seismically active areas, the Central Pannonian and Mur-Mürz zones, have been considered in order to assess the style and rate of crustal deformation using Global Positioning System (GPS) and earthquake data.We processed data of continuous and campaign GPS measurements obtained during the years 1991–2007. Velocities relative to the stable Eurasia have been computed at HGRN, CEGRN and EPN GPS sites in and around the Pannonian basin. Uniform strain rates and relative displacements were calculated for the investigated regions. GPS data confirm the mostly left lateral strike slip character of the Mur-Mürz–Vienna basin fault system and suggest a contraction between the eastward moving Alpine-North Pannonian unit and the Carpathians.The computation of the seismic strain rate was based on the Kostrov summation. The averaged unit norm seismic moment tensor, which describes the characteristic style of deformation, has been obtained from the available focal mechanism solutions, whereas the annual seismic moment release showing the rate of the deformation was estimated using the catalogues of historical and recent earthquakes.Our analysis reveals that in the Central Pannonian zone the geodetic strain rate is significantly larger than the seismic strain rate. Based on the weakness of the lithosphere, the stress magnitudes and the regional features of seismicity, we suggest that the low value of the seismic/geodetic strain rate ratio can be attributed to the aseismic release of the prevailing compressive stress and not to an overdue major earthquake. In the Mur-Mürz zone, although the uncertainty of the seismic/geodetic strain rate ratio is high, the seismic part of the deformation seems to be notably larger than in the case of the Central Pannonian zone. These results reflect the different deformation mechanism, rheology and tectonic style of the investigated zones. 相似文献
3.
针对2015年4月25日尼泊尔M8.1地震后喜马拉雅造山带的未来地震危险性问题,通过对喜马拉雅带历史大地震应变能释放和在尼泊尔地震发震前后的区域地震活动图像进行了分析研究。结果发现喜马拉雅带很可能已进入新-轮的地震活跃期。此次尼泊尔大地震不足以将喜马拉雅带中段的地壳应变能全部释放,喜马拉雅带中段的地震活动和藏南裂谷带地震活动具有密切的关联,在喜马拉雅带中段和藏南裂谷带还将有大地震活动。同时研究结果还显示现今在喜马拉雅带的东段存在阿萨姆围空区和不丹围空区,在喜马拉雅的西段出现噶尔围空区,喜马拉雅西段新德里和西藏接壤地区以及喀喇昆仑断裂上噶尔县地区地震危险性很高,喜马拉雅东段林芝山南地区以南的阿萨姆和不丹地区危险性很高,应引起重视。 相似文献
4.
M. R. Pandey R. P. Tandukar J. P. Avouac J. Vergne Th. Hritier 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》1999,17(5-6)
The National Seismological Network of Nepal consists of 17 short period seismic stations operated since 1994. It provides an exceptional view of the microseismic activity over nearly one third of the Himalayan arc, including the only segment, between longitudes 78°E and 85°E, that has not produced any M>8 earthquakes over the last century. It shows a belt of seismicity that follows approximately the front of the Higher Himalaya with most of the seismic moment being released at depths between 10 and 20 km. This belt of seismicity is interpreted to reflect interseismic stress accumulation in the upper crust associated with creep in the lower crust beneath the Higher Himalaya. The seismic activity is more intense around 82°E in Far-Western Nepal and around 87°E in Eastern Nepal. Western Nepal, between 82.5 and 85°E, is characterized by a particularly low level of seismic activity. We propose that these lateral variations are related to segmentation of the Main Himalayan Thrust Fault. The major junctions between the different segments would thus lie at about 87°E and 82°E with possibly an intermediate one at about 85°E. These junctions seem to coincide with some of the active normal faults in Southern Tibet. Lateral variation of seismic activity is also found to correlate with lateral variations of geological structures suggesting that segmentation is a long-lived feature. We infer four 250–400 km long segments that could produce earthquakes comparable to the M=8.4 Bihar–Nepal earthquake that struck eastern Nepal in 1934. Assuming the model of the characteristic earthquake, the recurrence interval between two such earthquakes on a given segment is between 130 and 260 years. 相似文献
5.
Garhwal Himalayas are seismically very active and simultaneously suffering from landslide hazards. Landslides are one of the most frequent natural hazards in Himalayas causing damages worth more than one billion US$ and around 200 deaths every year. Thus, it is of paramount importance to identify the landslide causative factors to study them carefully and rank them as per their influence on the occurrence of landslides. The difference image of GIS-derived landslide susceptibility zonation maps prepared for pre- and post-Chamoli earthquake shows the effect of seismic shaking on the occurrence of landslides in the Garhwal Himalaya. An attempt has been made to incorporate seismic shaking parameters in terms of peak ground acceleration with other static landslide causative factors to produce landslide susceptibility zonation map in geographic information system environment. In this paper, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out to calculate peak ground acceleration values at different time periods for estimating seismic shaking conditions in the study area. Further, these values are used as one of the causative factors of landslides in the study area and it is observed that it refines the preparation of landslide susceptibility zonation map in seismically active areas like Garhwal Himalayas. 相似文献
6.
Seismicity of Gujarat 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Paper describes tectonics, earthquake monitoring, past and present seismicity, catalogue of earthquakes and estimated return periods of large earthquakes in Gujarat state, western India. The Gujarat region has three failed Mesozoic rifts of Kachchh, Cambay, and Narmada, with several active faults. Kachchh district of Gujarat is the only region outside Himalaya-Andaman belt that has high seismic hazard of magnitude 8 corresponding to zone V in the seismic zoning map of India. The other parts of Gujarat have seismic hazard of magnitude 6 or less. Kachchh region is considered seismically one of the most active intraplate regions of the World. It is known to have low seismicity but high hazard in view of occurrence of fewer smaller earthquakes of M????6 in a region having three devastating earthquakes that occurred during 1819 (M w7.8), 1956 (M w6.0) and 2001 (M w7.7). The second in order of seismic status is Narmada rift zone that experienced a severely damaging 1970 Bharuch earthquake of M5.4 at its western end and M????6 earthquakes further east in 1927 (Son earthquake), 1938 (Satpura earthquake) and 1997 (Jabalpur earthquake). The Saurashtra Peninsula south of Kachchh has experienced seismicity of magnitude less than 6. 相似文献
7.
The Himalayan fold-thrust belt has been visited by many disastrous earthquakes (magnitude > 6) time and again. This active collisional orogen bordering Indian subcontinent in the north remains a potential seismic threat of similar magnitude in the adjoining countries like India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and China. Though earthquake forecasting is riddled with all conjectures and still not a proven presumption, identifying likely source zones of such disastrous earthquakes would be an important contribution to seismic hazard assessment. In this study, we have worked out spatio-temporal clustering of earthquakes (Mb ?? 4.5; 1964?C2006) in the Himalayas. ??Point density?? spatial statistics has helped in detecting 22 spatial seismicity clusters. Earthquake catalog is then treated with a moving time-distance window technique (inter-event time 35 days and distance 100 ± 20 km) to bring out temporal clusters by recognizing several foreshock-main shock-aftershock (FMA) sequences. A total of 53 such temporal sequences identified in the process are confined within the 22 spatial clusters. Though each of these spatio-temporal clusters deserves in-depth analysis, we short-listed only eight such clusters that are dissected by active tectonic discontinuities like MBT/MCT for detail study. Spatio-temporal clusters have been used to constrain the potential source zones. These eight well-defined spatio-temporal clusters demonstrate recurrent moderate to large earthquakes. We assumed that the length of these clusters are indicating the possible maximum rupture lengths and thus empirically estimated the maximum possible magnitudes of eight clusters that can be generated from them (from west to east) as 8.0, 8.3, 8.2, 8.3, 8.2, 8.4, 8.0 and 7.7. Based on comparative study of the eight cluster zones contemplating with their temporal recurrences, historical seismic records, presence of intersecting faults and estimated magnitudes, we have guessed the possibility that Kangra, East Nepal, Garhwal and Kumaun?CWest Nepal clusters, in decreasing order of earthquake threat, are potential source zones for large earthquakes (??7.7 M) in future. 相似文献
8.
The Indian subcontinent is one of the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. The Himalayas are well known for high seismic activity, and the ongoing northwards drift of the Indian plate makes the Himalaya geodynamically active. During the last three decades, several major earthquakes occurred at the plate interiors and boundaries in this subcontinent causing massive losses. Therefore, one of the major challenges in seismology has been to estimate long recurrence period of large earthquakes where most of the classical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Approaches fail due to short catalogues used in the prediction models. Therefore, during the past few decades, the Himalayan region has been studied extensively in terms of the present ongoing displacements. In this context the present study has been carried out to estimate the surface displacement in a seismically active region of the Himalaya, in between Ganga and Yamuna Tear, using multi-temporal Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Interferometry. A displacement rate of 6.2–8.2 mm/yr in N14°E direction of the Indian plate towards the Tibetan plate has been obtained. It has been noted that the estimated convergence rate using Differential SAR Interferometry technique is relatively low in comparison with those obtained from previous classical studies. The reported low convergence rate may be due to the occurrence of silent/quite earthquakes, aseismic slip, differential movement of Delhi Hardwar ridge, etc. Therefore, in view of the contemporary seismicity and conspicuous displacements, a study of long-term observations of this surface movement has been recommended in future through a time-series SAR Interferometry analysis. 相似文献
9.
Aristoteles Vergara Muñoz 《Natural Hazards》1990,3(3):233-248
The definition of earthquake sources in the Panama region on the basis of both tectonics and average seismicity rates, have recently led to the concept of a microplate surrounded by seismically active areas. The effects of these earthquakes on the place where the most important concentration of investments and population is located, the capital city of Panama, are analyzed in this paper using statistical approaches.The parameters of Gumbel's Type-I distribution of extreme values for a continuous interval of 60 yr annual maximum magnitudes were used to make probabilistic estimations of the seismic hazard in Panama City. An earthquake with magnitude 7.5 is capable of producing a modified Mercalli intensity VII in Panama City, provided the source distance is of the order of 100 km. This earthquake has a probability of occurrence of 69% in 50 yr. 相似文献
10.
Impact of seismic factors on landslide susceptibility zonation: a case study in part of Indian Himalayas 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards in high mountain terrains such as the Himalayas, which are one of
the youngest tectonically and seismically active mountain ranges in the world. The crustal movements along the longitudinal
thrusts and transverse faults give rise to earthquakes and in turn initiate landslides in the region. In fact, in addition
to various static factors causing landslides, earthquakes are one of the major causes of landslides. It is thus imperative
to incorporate seismic factor also while carrying out landslide susceptibility zonation map preparation in a seismically active
areas like Garhwal Himalayas. In this paper, a study on the effect of earthquakes on landslide susceptibility zonation has
been demonstrated by taking Chamoli earthquake as an example. 相似文献
11.
Temporal behavior of the background seismicity rate in central Japan, 1998 to mid-2003 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock. 相似文献
12.
In estimating the likelihood of an earthquake hazard for a seismically active region, information on the geometry of the potential
source is important in quantifying the seismic hazard. The damage from an earthquake varies spatially and is governed by the
fault geometry and lithology. As earthquake damage is amplified by guided seismic waves along fault zones, it is important
to delineate the disposition of the fault zones by precisely determined hypocentral parameters. We used the double difference
(DD) algorithm to relocate earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone (KWSZ) region, with the P- and S-wave catalog data
from relative arrival time pairs constituting the input. A significant improvement in the hypocentral estimates was achieved,
with the epicentral errors <30 m and focal depth errors <75 m i.e. errors have been significantly reduced by an order of magnitude
from the parameters determined by HYPO71. The earthquake activity defines three different fault segments. The seismogenic volume is shallower in the south by 3 km,
with seismicity in the north extending to a depth of 11 km while in the south the deepest seismicity observed is at a depth
of 8 km. By resolving the structure of seismicity in greater detail, we address the salient issues related to the seismotectonics
of this region. 相似文献
13.
Recovering seismic information contained in old analog records could increase our knowledge of seismic source characteristics and the seismicity of a region. This is particularly important in zones with low to moderate seismicity.To extract the available information, it is necessary to digitize the seismic records. This is not an easy task especially owing to the generally poor quality of the original records, with illegible or missing parts. However some exceptions were found in the records of a few seismological stations in Germany, Sweden and France.This paper presents an example of the recovering of source parameters and can be divided in two parts: the first one presents a simple semi-automatic technique for digitization of old analog seismic records, developed using commercial software on a PC; the second part describes the methodology of assessing the seismic moment, using empirical and theoretical relations, as well as the seismic source dimensions.The earthquake selected to illustrate this procedure is the 23 April 1909 Benavente (Portugal) earthquake. This earthquake occurred in the Lower Tagus Valley region and caused great destruction in the meizoseismal area. It is the biggest earthquake that occurred during this century in the central part of the country and its magnitude has been estimated between 6.6 and 7.6.The digitization procedure allowed the recovery of seismic information contained in old analog records, in particular, the seismic moment estimation. The results obtained indicated that 7.6 was a very high value for the magnitude of the 23 April 1909 earthquake, suggesting that the magnitude reported in the Portuguese catalogue is overestimated. The estimated moment magnitude is 6.0. 相似文献
14.
Imtiyaz A. Parvez 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):397-412
The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic
zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information
on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic
parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude.
These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each
zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M
w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M
w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high
probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11
show moderate probabilities. 相似文献
15.
M. Radha Krishna 《Journal of Earth System Science》1995,104(4):693-706
A detailed seismicity map of the Central Indian Ridge for the period 1912–1993 is presented, and the earthquakes pertaining
to four major transforms offsetting the ridge are utilized to study the moment release pattern. The scalar moment release
for the period 1912–1993, and the summed moment rate tensors for both short period (1977–1993) and long period (1912–1993)
bring out a unified picture of moment release pattern.
The fraction of seismic slip calculated based on depths of 100°C and 400°C limiting temperatures suggests that the Marie-Celeste
transform requires a slip almost to a depth of 400°C isotherm to account for the observed moment, and the Argo transform requires
depth of faulting much above the 400°C isotherm. A very small fraction of slip is accounted seismically for Vema (53%) and
12° 12′S (23%) even to depths of 100°C isotherm, suggesting a very low order of moment release along these transforms.
The horizontal plate velocities and the corresponding strain rates obtained from moment tensor summation of long period data
(82 years) give rise to (V
y
y
; V
y
x
mm. yr−1) of 6.0 and 6.1 along Marie-Celeste, 1.3 and 0.50 along Argo, 0.06 and 0.06 along 12° 12′S, 1.6 and 0.25 along Vema transforms.
The corresponding strain rates (ε
y
y
;ε
y
x
× 10−15 S−1) are 12.7 and 6.8 along MarieCeleste, 6.9 and 1.4 along Argo, 0.27 and 0.14 along 12° 12′S, 7.3 and 0.58 along Vema transforms.
These results suggest that the strain rates were highest and almost all predicted motion is taken up seismically along the
Marie-Celeste transform. The strain rates are lower along Argo transform and the observed moment release require shallower
depth of faulting in order to slip to be accounted seismically. The Vema and 12° 12′S transforms are characterized by low
strain rates and less than 15 per cent of motion is accommodated seismically within the seismogenic layer. It is proposed
that the deficiency of moment release along the Vema and 12° 12′S multiple transform system may be due to most of the plate
motion occurring aseismically. 相似文献
16.
Surface displacement estimation along Himalayan frontal fault using differential SAR interferometry 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The Himalayan region has been studied extensively during the past few decades in terms of present ongoing deformations. Various models have been proposed for the evolution of the Himalaya to explain the cause of earthquake occurrences and to understand the seismotectonics of the Himalayan collision zone. However, the information on displacements from field geodetic surveys is still too scarce in time and spatial domains so as to provide convincing evidences. Moreover, classical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Approaches also fail due to paucity of data in higher magnitude range, thus emphasizing the need of spatial level displacement measurements. It is in this context that the present study has been carried out to estimate the surface displacement in a seismically active region of the Himalaya between Ganga and Yamuna Tear using Differential SAR interferometry. Three single-look complex images, obtained from ASAR sensor onboard ENVISAT satellite, have been used. A displacement rate of 8?C10?mm per year in N15°E direction of Indian plate has been obtained in this three-pass SAR interferometry study. It has been noted that the estimated convergence rate using Differential SAR interferometry technique is relatively low in comparison with those obtained from previous classical studies. The reported low convergence rate may be due to occurrence of silent/quite earthquakes, aseismic slip, differential movement of Delhi Hardwar ridge, etc. Therefore, in view of the contemporary seismicity and conspicuous displacements, a study of long-term observations of this surface movement has been recommended in future through a time-series SAR interferometry analysis. 相似文献
17.
In this study, we accurately relocate 360 earthquakes in the Sikkim Himalaya through the application of the double-difference algorithm to 4?years of data accrued from a eleven-station broadband seismic network. The analysis brings out two major clusters of seismicity??one located in between the main central thrust (MCT) and the main boundary thrust (MBT) and the other in the northwest region of Sikkim that is site to the devastating Mw6.9 earthquake of September 18, 2011. Keeping in view the limitations imposed by the Nyquist frequency of our data (10?Hz), we select 9 moderate size earthquakes (5.3????Ml????4) for the estimation of source parameters. Analysis of shear wave spectra of these earthquakes yields seismic moments in the range of 7.95?×?1021 dyne-cm to 6.31?×?1023 dyne-cm and corner frequencies in the range of 1.8?C6.25?Hz. Smaller seismic moments obtained in Sikkim when compared with the rest of the Himalaya vindicates the lower seismicity levels in the region. Interestingly, it is observed that most of the events having larger seismic moment occur between MBT and MCT lending credence to our observation that this is the most active portion of Sikkim Himalaya. The estimates of stress drop and source radius range from 48 to 389?bar and 0.225 to 0.781?km, respectively. Stress drops do not seem to correlate with the scalar seismic moments affirming the view that stress drop is independent over a wide moment range. While the continental collision scenario can be invoked as a reason to explain a predominance of low stress drops in the Himalayan region, those with relatively higher stress drops in Sikkim Himalaya could be attributed to their affinity with strike-slip source mechanisms. Least square regression of the scalar seismic moment (M 0) and local magnitude (Ml) results in a relation LogM 0?=?(1.56?±?0.05)Ml?+?(8.55?±?0.12) while that between moment magnitude (M w ) and local magnitude as M w ?=?(0.92?±?0.04)Ml?+?(0.14?±?0.06). These relations could serve as useful inputs for the assessment of earthquake hazard in this seismically active region of Himalaya. 相似文献
18.
Evaluation of the seismic moment tensor for earthquakes on plate boundary is a standard procedure to determine the relative velocity of plates, which controls the seismic deformation rate predicted from the slip on a single fault. The moment tensor is also decomposed into an isotropic and a deviatoric part to discover the relationship between the average strain rate and the relative velocity between two plates. We utilize this procedure to estimate the rates of deformation in northern Central America where plate boundaries are seismically well defined. Four different tectonic environments are considered for modelling of the plate motions. The deformation rates obtained here compare well with those predicted from the plate motions models and are in good agreement with actual observations. Deformation rates on faults are increasingly being used to estimate earthquake recurrence from information on fault slip rate and more on how we can incorporate our current understanding into seismic hazard analyses. 相似文献
19.
Kumar Ashvini Sinvhal A. Joshi A. Kumar D. Sandeep Kumar Parveen 《Natural Hazards》2015,75(2):1057-1074
Natural Hazards - Uttarakhand Himalayas are among one of the most seismically active continental regions of the world. The Himalayan belt in this region is divided into Kumaon and Garhwal Himalaya.... 相似文献
20.
Mustafa Toker 《Central European Journal of Geosciences》2013,5(3):423-434
The Van earthquake (M W 7.1, 23 October 2011) in E-Anatolia is typical representative of intraplate earthquakes. Its thrust focal character and aftershock seismicity pattern indicate the most prominent type of compound earthquakes due to its multifractal dynamic complexity and uneven compressional nature, ever seen all over Turkey. Seismicity pattern of aftershocks appears to be invariably complex in its overall characteristics of aligned clustering events. The population and distribution of the aftershock events clearly exhibit spatial variability, clustering-declustering and intermittency, consistent with multifractal scaling. The sequential growth of events during time scale shows multifractal behavior of seismicity in the focal zone. The results indicate that the extensive heterogeneity and time-dependent strength are considered to generate distinct aftershock events. These factors have structural impacts on intraplate seismicity, suggesting multifractal and unstable nature of the Van event. Multifractal seismicity is controlled by complex evolution of crustal-scale faulting, mechanical heterogeneity and seismic deformation anisotropy. Overall seismicity pattern of aftershocks provides the mechanism for strain softening process to explain the principal thrusting event in the Van earthquake. Strain localization with fault weakening controls the seismic characterization of Van earthquake and contributes to explain the anomalous occurrence of aftershocks and intraplate nature of the Van earthquake. 相似文献