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1.
The results of the observations, using partial reflections, of the lower ionosphere over Tumannyi station in the Murmansk region (69.0° N, 35.7° E) during strong solar flares on January 15–20, 2005, are presented. The structure of the D region of the polar ionosphere and the effects of X-ray flares and fluxes of high energy protons on this region are considered. The anomalous values of electron density in the lower part of the D region, unusually low values of the height of the lower ionospheric boundary, complete or partial absorption of short and medium radiowaves, and bursts of the meter cosmic radio emission were detected during solar disturbances.  相似文献   

2.
In this study, pre-seismic and post-seismic total electron content (TEC) anomalies of 63 Mw?≥?5.0 earthquakes in Turkey (36°–42°N, 26°–45°E) were statistically investigated. The largest earthquake that occurred in Turkey during 2003–2016 is the Mw 7.1 Van earthquake on October 23, 2011. The TEC data of epicenters is obtained from CODE-GIM using a simple 4-point bivariate interpolation. The anomalies of TEC variations were determined by using a quartile-based running median process. In order to validate GIM results, we used the GPS-TEC data of available four IGS stations within the size of the Van earthquake preparation area. The anomalies that are detected by GIM and GPS-TEC show a similar pattern. Accordingly, the results obtained with CODE-GIM are reliable. The statistical results show that there are not prominent earthquake precursors for Mw?≤?6.0 earthquakes in Turkey.  相似文献   

3.
The changes of the ionospheric electric field before and after four huge earthquakes, which include the Ms 8.7 earthquake of 2004 and the Ms 8.5 earthquake of 2005 in Sumatra of Indonesia, the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of 2008 in China, the Ms 8.8 earthquake of 2010 in Chile, and their strong aftershocks are studied in this paper. The significant results revealed that the power spectral density of low-frequency electric field below 20 Hz in the ionosphere, a kind of electromagnetic radiation phenomena, increased abnormally before and after the earthquakes and partially corresponded to the increased power spectral density of the low-frequency geoelectric field in time. This research preliminarily indicates that the low-frequency electromagnetic radiation during the imminent stages before such earthquakes could be detected by the observation of the ionospheric electric field. However, the spatial, temporal, and intensive complexities of the electric field anomalies in the ionosphere before earthquakes have come in sight also.  相似文献   

4.
Two large earthquakes occurred in the western part of China in 2008, one of them being the Yutian (35.6°N, 81.6°E) M7.3 earthquake that occurred on March 21 (BJT) and the other the Wenchuan (31.0°N, 103.4°E) M8.0 earthquake that occurred on May 12 (BJT). In this paper, the West Continental China (included in 20.0°–50.0°N, 70.0°–110.0°E region) was the study region for verifyong the predictability of the pattern informatics (PI) method using the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) test and R score test. Different forecasting maps with different calculating parameters were obtained. The calculating parameters were the grid size Δx, base time t b, reference interval t b to t 1, change interval t 1 to t 2, and forecasting interval t 2 to t 3. In this paper, the base time t b fixed to June 1, 1971, the ending forecast time t 3 fixed to June 1, 2008, and the forecasting interval t 2 to t 3 changed from 1 to 10 years, and the grid sizes were chosen as 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, respectively. The results show that the PI method could forecast the Yutian M7.3 and Wenchuan M8.0 earthquakes only using suitable parameters. Comparing the forecast results of grid sizes 1° × 1° and 2° × 2°, the models with 2° × 2° grids were better. Comparing the forecast results with different forecasting windows from 1 to 10 years, the models with forecasting windows of 4–8 years were better using the ROC test, and the models with forecasting windows of 7–10 years were better using the R score test. The forecast efficiency of the model with a grid size of 2° × 2° and forecast window of 8 years was the best one using either the ROC test or the R score test.  相似文献   

5.
The present study reports the analysis of GPS TEC prior to 3 earthquakes (M > 6.0). The earthquakes are: (1) Loyalty Island (22°36′S, 170°54′E) on 19 January 2009 (M = 6.6), (2) Samoa Island (15°29′S, 172°5′W) on 30 August 2009 (M = 6.6), and (3) Tohoku (38°19′N, 142°22′E) on 11 March 2011 (M = 9.0). In an effort to search for a precursory signature we analysed the land and ocean parameters prior to the earthquakes, namely SLHF (Land) and SST (Ocean). The GPS TEC data indicate an anomalous behaviour from 1–13 days prior to earthquakes. The main purpose of this study was to explore and demonstrate the possibility of any changes in TEC, SST, and SLHF before, during and after the earthquakes which occurred near or beneath an ocean. This study may lead to better understanding of response of land, ocean, and ionosphere parameters prior to seismic activities.  相似文献   

6.
A possible mechanism of earthquake triggering by ionizing radiation of solar flares is considered. A theoretical model and results of numerical calculations of disturbance of electric field, electric current, and heat release in lithosphere associated with variation of ionosphere conductivity caused by absorption of ionizing radiation of solar flares are presented. A generation of geomagnetic field disturbances in a range of seconds/tens of seconds is possible as a result of large-scale perturbation of a conductivity of the bottom part of ionosphere in horizontal direction in the presence of external electric field. Amplitude-time characteristics of the geomagnetic disturbance depend upon a perturbation of integral conductivity of ionosphere. Depending on relation between integral Hall and Pedersen conductivities of disturbed ionosphere the oscillating and aperiodic modes of magnetic disturbances may be observed. For strong perturbations of the ionosphere conductivities amplitude of pulsations may obtain ~102 nT. In this case the amplitude of horizontal component of electric field on the Earth surface obtains 0.01 mV/m, electric current density in lithosphere –10–6 A/m2, and the power density of heat release produced by the generated current is 10–7 W/m3. It is shown that the absorption of ionizing radiation of solar flares can result in variations of a density of telluric currents in seismogenic faults comparable with a current density generated in the Earth crust by artificial pulsed power systems (geophysical MHD generator " Pamir-2” and electric pulsed facility " ERGU-600”), which provide regional earthquake triggering and spatiotemporal variation of seismic activity. Therefore, triggering of seismic events is possible not only by man-made pulsed power sources but also by the solar flares. The obtained results may be a physical basis for a novel approach to solve the problem of short-term earthquake prediction based on electromagnetic triggering phenomena.  相似文献   

7.
In this paper we investigate the tidal triggering evidence on the earthquakes of the seismic area of the Hellenic Arc using the Hist(ogram)Cum(mulation) method. We analyze the series of the earthquakes occurred in the area which is confined by the longitudes 22° and 28°E and latitudes 34° and 36°N in the time period from 1964 to 2012. In this time period 16,137 shallow and of intermediate depth earthquakes with ML up to 6.0 and 1,482 deep earthquakes with ML up to 6.2 occurred. The result of the this analysis indicate that the monthly variation of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence is in accordance with the period of the tidal lunar monthly variations, and the same happens with the corresponding daily variations of the frequencies of earthquake occurrence with the diurnal luni-solar (K1) and semidiurnal solar (S2) tidal variations. These results are in favor of a tidal triggering process on earthquakes when the stress in the focal area is near the critical level.  相似文献   

8.
A great earthquake of M S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.  相似文献   

9.
The GPS-derived total electron content (TEC) and NmF2 are measured at the Chung-Li ionosonde station (24.9°N, 121°E) in order to study the variations in slab thickness (τ) of the ionosphere at low-latitudes ionosphere during 1996–1999, corresponding to half of the 23rd solar cycle. This study presents the diurnal, seasonal, and solar flux variations in τ for different solar phases. The seasonal variations show that the average daily value is greater during summer and the reverse is true during equinox in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) region. Moreover, the τ values are greater during the daytime (0800–1600 LT) and nighttime (2000–0400 LT) for summer and winter, respectively. The diurnal variation shows two abnormal peaks that appear during the pre-sunrise and post-sunset hours. The peak values decrease as the sunspot number increases particularly for the pre-sunrise peak. Furthermore, the variation in the F-peak height (hpF2) indicates that a thermospheric wind toward the equator leads to an increase in hpF2 and an enhancement in τ during the pre-sunrise period. Furthermore, the study shows the variations of τ values for different geophysical conditions such as the geomagnetic storm and earthquake. A comprehensive discussion about the relation between τ and the geophysical events is provided in the paper.  相似文献   

10.
—A succession of precursory changes of seismicity characteristic to earthquakes of magnitude 7.0–7.5 occurred in advance of the Kobe 1995, M = 7.2, earthquake. Using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) regional catalog of earthquakes, the M8 prediction algorithm (Keilies-Borko and Kossobokov, 1987) recognizes the time of increased probability, TIP, for an earthquake with magnitude 7.0–7.5 from July 1991 through June 1996. The prediction is limited to a circle of 280-km radius centered at 33.5°N, 133.75°E. The broad area of intermediate-term precursory rise of activity encompasses a 175 by 175-km square, where the sequence of earthquakes exhibited a specific intermittent behavior. The square is outlined as the second-approximation reduced area of alarm by the "Mendocino Scenario" algorithm, MSc (Kossobokov et al., 1990). Moreover, since the M8 alarm starts, there were no swarms recorded except the one on 9–26 Nov. 1994, located at 34.9°N, 135.4°E. Time, location, and magnitude of the 1995 Kobe earthquake fulfill the M8-MSc predictions. Its aftershock zone ruptured the 54-km segment of the fault zone marked by the swarm, directly in the corner of the reduced alarm area. The Kobe 1995 epicenter is less than 50 km from the swarm and it coincides with the epicenter of the M 3.5 foreshock which took place 11 hours in advance.  相似文献   

11.
An interpretation of the parameters of earthquake sources is proposed for the two large earthquakes in the Rat Islands of February 4, 1965 (M W = 8.7), and November 17, 2003 (M W = 7.7–7.8), based on the analysis of focal mechanisms, the manifestation of aftershocks, and the specific features of the geological structure of the island slope of the Rat Islands. The source of the earthquake of 1965 is a reverse fault of longitudinal strike, with a length of ～350 km. It is located in the lower part of the Aleutian Terrace and probably is genetically connected with the development of the Rat submarine ridge. The westward boundary of the earthquake source is determined by the Heck Canyon structures, and the eastward boundary is determined by the end of Rat Ridge in the region of λ ～ 179°E–179.5°E. The source of the earthquake of 2003 is a steep E-W reverse fault extending for about 100 km. It is located in the eastern part of the Rat Islands, higher on the slope than the source of the earthquake of 1965. The westward end of the earthquake source is determined by Rat Canyon structures, and the eastward end is an abrupt change in isobaths in the region of λ ～ 179°E. According to the aftershock hypocenters, the depth of occurrence of the reverse fault could reach ～60 km. According to our interpretation, on the southern slope of the Rat and Near islands, there is a complex system of seismogenic faults that is caused by tectonic development of different structural elements. The dominant types of faults here are reverse faults, as in other island arcs. During earthquakes, reverse faults oriented along the island arc and also faults that intersect it exhibit themselves. The reverse faults of northeastern strike that intersect the arc characterize the type of tectonic motions in a series of canyons of the western part of the Aleutian Islands.  相似文献   

12.
The Gujarat and adjoining region falls under all four seismic zones V, IV, III and II of the seismic zoning map of India, and is one of the most seismically prone intracontinental regions of the world. It has experienced two large earthquakes of magnitude M w 7.8 and 7.7 in 1819 and 2001, respectively and several moderate earthquakes during the past two centuries. In the present study, the probability of occurrence of earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 has been estimated during a specified time interval for different elapsed times on the basis of observed time intervals between earthquakes using three stochastic models namely, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal. A complete earthquake catalogue has been used covering the time interval of 1819 to 2006. The whole region has been divided into three major seismic regions (Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh) on the basis of seismotectonics and geomorphology of the region. The earthquake hazard parameters have been estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The logarithmic of likelihood function (ln L) is estimated and used to test the suitability of models in three different regions. It was found that the Weibull model fits well with the actual data in Saurashtra and Kachchh regions, whereas Lognormal model fits well in Mainland Gujarat. The mean intervals of occurrence of earthquakes are estimated as 40.455, 20.249 and 13.338 years in the Saurashtra, Mainland Gujarat and Kachchh region, respectively. The estimated cumulative probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur at a time later than some specific time from the last earthquake) for the earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 reaches 0.9 after about 64 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra, about 49 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 29 years from the last earthquake (2006) in the Kachchh region. The conditional probability (probability that the next earthquake will occur during some specific time interval after a certain elapsed time from last earthquake) is also estimated and it reaches about 0.8 to 0.9 during the time interval of about 57 to 66 years from the last earthquake (1993) in Saurashtra region, 31 to 51 years from the last earthquake (1969) in Mainland Gujarat and about 21 to 28 years from the last earthquake (2006) in Kachchh region.  相似文献   

13.
A joint analysis of variations in the ionospheric parameters at three vertical-incidence stations (Heiss Island, Dixon Island, and Sodankyla) and the solar wind plasma characteristics (i.e., the PC magnetic index characterizing the IMF geoeffective part) indicated that the PC index can be used as a predictor in order to diagnose the electron density level in the polar ionosphere. An increase in the PC level corresponds to positive and negative gradients in variations in the F region??s critical frequencies. As PC becomes larger than 1.5, the electron density increases at night in winter and, on the contrary, decreases during the day in summer and during daylight hours in winter. A delay in the ionospheric F region??s response to PC variations depends on the station latitude: this delay is no more than 1 and 2 h at the Heiss Island and Dixon Island stations and can be more than 6 h in summer and 0?C1 h in winter at Sodankyla. An increase in the PC amplitude as a rule corresponds to an anomalous increase in foEs relative to the median values at these stations with a delay of 1 h.  相似文献   

14.
—Properties of the earthquake sequence of the 23 January, 1992 (5.8 M S ?) earthquake in Cephalonia Island, Western Greece, are investigated. The parameter b in the frequency-magnitude relation is found equal to 1.084 while the decay parameter p of the time distribution of the aftershock sequence is found equal to 0.991. The principal parameters method is applied to the aftershock sequence and the average strikes of N156°E (±20°) and N61°E (±10°) were obtained denoting also very small dips. The major strike which resulted from the aftershock epicentre distribution was NW–SE, similar to Miocene-Neogene basins on Cephalonia Island.  相似文献   

15.
Investigation and understanding of the present-day geodynamic situation are of key importance for the elucidation of the laws and evolution of the seismic process in a seismically active region. In this work, seismic moments of nearly 26000 earthquakes with K p ≥ 7 (M LH ≥ 2) that occurred in the southern Baikal region and northern Mongolia (SBNM) (48°–54°N, 96°–108°E) from 1968 through 1994 are determined from amplitudes and periods of maximum displacements in transverse body waves. The resulting set of seismic moments is used for spatial-temporal analysis of the stress-strain state of the SBNM lithosphere. The stress fields of the Baikal rift and the India-Asia collision zone are supposed to interact in the region studied. Since the seismic moment of a tectonic earthquake depends on the type of motion in the source, seismic moments and focal mechanisms of earthquakes belonging to four long-term aftershock and swarm clusters of shocks in the Baikal region were used to “calibrate” average seismic moments in accordance with the source faulting type. The study showed that the stress-strain state of the SBNM lithosphere is spatially inhomogeneous and nonstationary. A space-time discrepancy is observed in the formation of faulting types in sources of weak (K p = 7 and 8) and stronger (K p ≥ 9) earthquakes. This discrepancy is interpreted in terms of rock fracture at various hierarchical levels of ruptures on differently oriented general, regional, and local faults. A gradual increase and an abrupt, nearly pulsed, decrease in the vertical component of the stress field S v is a characteristic feature of time variations. The zones where the stress S v prevails are localized at “singular points” of the lithosphere. Shocks of various energy classes in these zones are dominated by the normal-fault slip mechanism. For earthquakes with K p = 9, the source faulting changes with depth from the strike-slip type to the normal-strike-slip and normal types, suggesting an increase in S v . On the whole, the results of this study are well consistent with the synergism of open unstable dissipative systems and are usable for interpreting the main observable variations in the stress-strain state of the lithosphere in terms of spatiotemporal variations in the vertical component of the stress field S v . This suggests the influence of rifting on the present-day geodynamic processes in the SBNM lithosphere.  相似文献   

16.
Using the Cut And Paste (CAP) method, we invert the focal mechanism of 38 moderate earthquakes (MS ≥ 3.0) recorded by Yunnan seismic network and analyze the corresponding focal mechanism consistency based on the minimum spatial rotation angle. Our results indicate that the MS 6.4 mainshock is induced by a lateral strike slip fault (with a rake angle of ～ ?165°) and a little normal-faulting component event along a nearly vertical plane (dipping angle～ 79° and strike ～138°). Combining our results with high resolution catalog, we argue that the seismogenic fault of this earthquake sequence is a secondary fault western to the major Weixi-Qiaohou-Weishan fault. The focal mechanism evolution can be divided into three periods. During the first period, the foreshock sequence, the focal mechanism consistency is the highest (KA<36°); during the second period which is shortly after the mainshock, the focal mechanism shows strong variation with KA ranging from 8° to 110°; during the third period, the seismicity becomes weak and the focal mechanism of the earthquakes becomes more consistent than the second period (18°<KA<73°). We suggest that the KA, to some extent, represents the coherence between local tectonic stress regime and the stress state of each individual earthquake. Furthermore, high focal mechanism consistency and high linearity of seismic distribution may serve as indicators for the identification of foreshock sequence.  相似文献   

17.
The variations in the total electron content (TEC), obtained from the data of 11 ground-based GPS stations in the region (5°S–80°N; 110–160°E) in the period August 2–15, 2006, have been analyzed in order to search for possible ionospheric manifestations of the SAOMAI powerful typhoon (August 5–11, 2006) near the south-eastern coast of China. The global TEC maps (GIM) have also been used. In the region of the typhoon action during the magnetic storm of August 7, 2006, an intensification of the TEC variations in the evening local time within the 32–128 min periods range was detected. However, this effect was most probably caused by the dynamics of the irregular structure of the equatorial anomaly and by the disturbed geomagnetic situation (Kp ～ 3–6, Dst varied from ?74 to ?153 nT). The analysis of the diurnal variations in the absolute values of TEC and TEC variations with periods of 2–25 min did not reveal a substantial increase in the intensity and changes in the spectrum of the TEC variations in the period of typhoon action as compared to the adjacent days. Thus, we failed to detect ionospheric disturbances unambiguously related to the SAOMAI typhoon.  相似文献   

18.
In this paper, we analyze the TEC data for April 2013 observed at Agra station, India (geogr. lat. 27.2° N, long. 78° E) to examine the effect of earthquake of magnitude M = 7.8 which occurred on 16 April 2013 at Pakistan–Iran border region. We process the TEC data using the s statistical criterion to find out anomalous variation in TEC data. We also study the VLF propagation signal from NPM, Hawaii (21.42° N, 158° W), which is monitored at the same station (Agra station) in the light of this earthquake as well as solar flares. The nighttime fluctuation method is used to analyze the VLF data for the period of ±5 days from the day of earthquake (11–21 April 2013). The anomalous enhancements and depletions are found in TEC data on 1–9 days before the occurrence of event.  相似文献   

19.
Regular measurements of the atmospheric electric field made at Vostok Station (φ=78.45°S; λ=106.87°E, elevation 3500 m) in Antarctica demonstrate that extremely intense electric fields (1000–5000 V/m) can be observed during snow storms. Usually the measured value of the atmospheric electric field at Vostok is about 100–250 V/m during periods with “fair weather” conditions. Actual relation between near-surface electric fields and ionospheric electric fields remain to be a controversial problem. Some people claimed that these intense electric fields produced by snowstorms or appearing before strong earthquakes can re-distribute electric potential in the ionosphere at the heights up to 300 km. We investigated interrelation between the atmospheric and ionospheric electric fields by both experimental and theoretical methods. Our conclusion is that increased near-surface atmospheric electric fields do not contribute notably to distribution of ionospheric electric potential.  相似文献   

20.
Based on data from the Japanese Kokubunji and Wakkanai stations of vertical sounding of the ionosphere, the variations in the foF2 critical frequency prior to the strong earthquakes of March 9 and 11, 2011 (M 7.2 and 9.0, respectively), are analyzed. It is found that significant positive disturbances of foF2 had been recorded approximately one day before the first earthquake. Notably, at the Irkutsk reference station, which is located about 3300 km from the earthquake epicenters, there were no significant disturbances of foF2. This suggests that the effects of increased foF2, observed at the Kokubunji and Wakkanai stations, were probably caused by the earthquake preparation processes. The seismo-ionospheric manifestations of the stronger earthquake on March 11, 2011, even if they took place, were hidden by the geomagnetic storm’s effects.  相似文献   

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