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1.
The purpose of the present study is the analysis of landslide risk for roads and buildings in a small test site (20 km2) in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). For this purpose, an evaluation is performed integrating into a GIS information obtained from multiple sources: (i) landslide hazard; (ii) elements at risk; and (iii) vulnerability. Landslide hazard is assessed on a probabilistic basis for three different types of slope movement (shallow translational slides, translational slides and rotational slides), based on some assumptions such as: (i) the likelihood of future landslide occurrence can be measured through statistical relationships between past landslide distribution and specified spatial data sets considered as landslide predisposing factors; and (ii) the rainfall combination (amount–duration) responsible for past slope instability within the test site will produce the same effects (i.e. same type of landslides and similar total affected area), each time they occur in the future. When the return period of rainfall triggering events is known, different scenarios can be modelled, each one ascribed to a specific return period. Therefore, landslide hazard is quantitatively assessed on a raster basis, and is expressed as the probability for each pixel (25 m2) to be affected by a future landslide, considering a rainfall triggering scenario with a specific return period. Elements at risk within the test site include 2561 buildings and roads amounting to 169 km. Values attributed to elements at risk were defined considering reconstruction costs, following the guidelines of the Portuguese Insurance Institute. Vulnerability is considered as the degree of loss to a given element resulting from the occurrence of a landslide of a given magnitude. Vulnerability depends not only on structural properties of exposed elements, but also on the type of process, and its magnitude; i.e., vulnerability cannot be defined in absolute terms, but only with respect to a specific process (e.g. vulnerability to shallow translational slides). Therefore, vulnerability was classified for the three landslide groups considered on hazard assessment, taking into account: (i) landslide magnitude (mean depth, volume, velocity); (ii) damage levels produced by past landslide events in the study area; and (iii) literature. Finally, a landslide risk analysis considering direct costs was made in an automatic way crossing the following three layers: (i) Probabilistic hazard map for a landslide type Z, considering a particular rainfall triggering scenario whose return period is known; (ii) Vulnerability map (values from 0 to 1) of the exposed elements to landslide type Z; and (iii) Value map of the exposed elements, considering reconstruction costs.  相似文献   

2.
During the last decade, slope failures were reported in a 500 km2 study area in the Geba–Werei catchment, northern Ethiopia, a region where landslides were not considered an important hazard before. Field observations, however, revealed that many of the failures were actually reactivations of old deep-seated landslides after land use changes. Therefore, this study was conducted (1) to explore the importance of environmental factors controlling landslide occurrence and (2) to estimate future landslide susceptibility. A landslide inventory map of the study area derived from aerial photograph interpretation and field checks shows the location of 57 landslides and six zones with multiple landslides, mainly complex slides and debris flows. In total 14.8% of the area is affected by an old landslide. For the landslide susceptibility modelling, weights of evidence (WofE), was applied and five different models were produced. After comparison of the models and spatial validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Kappa values, a model combining data on elevation, hillslope gradient, aspect, geology and distance to faults was selected. This model confirmed our hypothesis that deep-seated landslides are located on hillslopes with a moderate slope gradient (i.e. 5°–13°). The depletion areas are expected on and along the border of plateaus where weathered basalts rich in smectite clays are found, and the landslide debris is expected to accumulate on the Amba Aradam sandstone and upper Antalo limestone. As future landslides are believed to occur on inherently unstable hillslopes similar to those where deep-seated landslides occurred, the classified landslide susceptibility map allows delineating zones where human interventions decreasing slope stability might cause slope failures. The results obtained demonstrate that the applied methodology could be used in similar areas where information on the location of landslides is essential for present-day hazard analysis.  相似文献   

3.
Landslide hazard mapping is a fundamental tool for disaster management activities in mountainous terrains. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the predictive power of weights-of-evidence modelling in landslide hazard assessment in the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal. The modelling was performed within a geographical information system (GIS), to derive a landslide hazard map of the south-western marginal hills of the Kathmandu Valley. Thematic maps representing various factors (e.g., slope, aspect, relief, flow accumulation, distance to drainage, soil depth, engineering soil type, landuse, geology, distance to road and extreme one-day rainfall) that are related to landslide activity were generated, using field data and GIS techniques, at a scale of 1:10,000. Landslide events of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s were used to assess the Bayesian probability of landslides in each cell unit with respect to the causative factors. To assess the accuracy of the resulting landslide hazard map, it was correlated with a map of landslides triggered by the 2002 extreme rainfall events. The accuracy of the map was evaluated by various techniques, including the area under the curve, success rate and prediction rate. The resulting landslide hazard value calculated from the old landslide data showed a prediction accuracy of > 80%. The analysis suggests that geomorphological and human-related factors play significant roles in determining the probability value, while geological factors play only minor roles. Finally, after the rectification of the landslide hazard values of the new landslides using those of the old landslides, a landslide hazard map with > 88% prediction accuracy was prepared. The methodology appears to have extensive applicability to the Lesser Himalaya of Nepal, with the limitation that the model's performance is contingent on the availability of data from past landslides.  相似文献   

4.
Giant landslides, which usually have volumes up to several tens of km3, tend to be related to mountainous reliefs such as fault scarps or thrust fronts. The western flank of the Precordillera in southern Peru and northern Chile is characterized by the presence of such mega-landslides. A good example is the Latagualla Landslide (19°15′S), composed of ~ 5.4 km3 of Miocene ignimbritic rock blocks located next to the Moquella Flexure, a structure resulting from the propagation of a west-vergent thrust blind fault that borders the Precordillera of the Central Depression. The landslide mass is very well preserved, allowing reconstitution of its movement and evolution in three main stages. The geomorphology of the landslide indicates that it preceded the incision of the present-day valleys during the late Miocene. Given the local geomorphological conditions 8–9 Ma ago (morphology, slopes and probably a high water table), large-magnitude earthquakes could have provided destabilization forces enough to cause the landslide. On the other hand, present seismic forces would not be sufficient to trigger such landslides; therefore the hazard related to them in the region is low.  相似文献   

5.
Sedimentary impacts from landslides in the Tachia River Basin, Taiwan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Chien-Yuan Chen   《Geomorphology》2009,105(3-4):355-365
A case study of coseismic landslides and post-seismic sedimentary impacts of landslides due to rainfall events was conducted in the Tachia River basin, Taichung County, central Taiwan. About 3000 coseismic landslides occurred in the basin during the ML 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999. The deposits from these landslides provided material for numerous debris flows induced by subsequent rainfall events. The estimated 4.1 × 107 m3 of landslide debris produced in the upland area caused sediment deposition in riverbeds, and flash floods inundated downstream areas with sediment during torrential rains. The landslide frequency-size distributions for the coseismic landslides and the subsequent rainfall-induced landslides were analyzed to determine the sediment budgets of the post-seismic geomorphic response in the landslide-dominated basin. Both the coseismic and the rainfall-induced landslides show a power–law frequency-size distribution with a rollover. It was found that the rainfall-induced landslide magnitude was smaller than the coseismic one, and that both have comparable negative scaling exponents in cumulative form, of about − 2.0 for larger landslides (> 10− 2 km2). This may be attributed to ongoing movement or reactivation of old landslides, and a natural stabilisation of small landslides between 10− 4 and 10− 2 km2. It is proposed that the characteristics of geological formations and rainfall as well as changes in landslide area are reflected in the power–law distribution.  相似文献   

6.
在对金沙江流域内的部分大型水电站工程区内的滑坡分析基础上,以两个滑坡为例,针对水电站工程区讨论了单体滑坡的风险评价方法。选取滑坡稳定性,规模和可能造成的涌浪高度3个指标进行危险性评价;并且定性地将大坝的易损性确定为高、中、低三个等级。在此基础上,对研究区的牛滚函滑坡和东岳庙滑坡进行了危险性分析和易损性评价,得出这两个单体滑坡的风险分析结果：牛滚函滑坡为低度风险,东岳庙滑坡为中度风险。研究成果为水电站工程区滑坡减灾防灾与风险管理提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

7.
This paper deals with the heuristic approach used for landslide hazard zonation along the coastal slopes and cliffs of the Cilento region between Agropoli and Sapri (Italy). This sector of coastline (about 118 km in length) is formed mainly of Mesozoic carbonates and Miocene flysch; Quaternary marine sandstones together with beach sands also crop out. Due to the destructive force of the waves, the coastline is affected by several landslides (mainly rock-falls and slides). The major geomorphological, geological and structural features of about 154 slopes and cliffs have been analysed and several parameters affecting the rock-masses were detected and measured. These parameters deal with topographical, geological, geomechanical, environmental and wave hydraulic characteristics of the studied area. In order to perform the heuristic approach, the Rock Engineering Systems (RES) proposed by Hudson was adopted with several modifications. The main steps of this work were: (1) the choice of parameters relevant to landslide hazard zonation, (2) the analysis of binary interaction between parameters, (3) the weighting of interaction importance, (4) the rating assignment to different classes of parameter values and (5) the final computation of an “Instability Index” (I.I.). A database containing the measured parameters was prepared, and using an interaction matrix, the outputs were linked into a Geographic Information System. It contains the following elements: geological and geomorphological features, historical data regarding landslides, images and values of I.I. for the studied slopes and cliffs. If new landslides occur or near-shore engineered structures are built, then the I.I. values will be automatically upgraded.Values of the I.I. were grouped into 3 classes marking low, medium and high landslide hazard. Both carbonatic rock-masses and flysch were distinguished with respect to I.I. values to show the differences in landslide susceptibility. In fact, rapid but small rock-falls can cause more casualties than moderate speed but large slides. High landslide hazard affects about 41% of carbonate cliffs and about 53% of slopes in arenaceous-marly flysch.  相似文献   

8.
Representative rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Nepal Himalaya   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  
Measuring some 2400 km in length, the Himalaya accommodate millions of people in northern India and Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and parts of other Asian nations. Every year, especially during monsoon rains, landslides and related natural events in these mountains cause tremendous damage to lives, property, infrastructure, and environment. In the context of the Himalaya, however, the rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation are not well understood. This paper describes regional aspects of rainfall thresholds for landslides in the Himalaya. Some 677 landslides occurring from 1951 to 2006 were studied to analyze rainfall thresholds. Out of the 677 landslides, however, only 193 associated with rainfall data were analyzed to yield a threshold relationship between rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, and landslide initiation. The threshold relationship fitted to the lower boundary of the field defined by landslide-triggering rainfall events is I = 73.90D− 0.79 (I = rainfall intensity in mm h− 1 and D = duration in hours), revealing that when the daily precipitation exceeds 144 mm, the risk of landslides on Himalayan mountain slopes is high. Normalized rainfall intensity–duration relationships and landslide initiation thresholds were established from the data after normalizing rainfall-intensity data with respect to mean annual precipitation (MAP) as an index in which NI = 1.10D− 0.59 (NI = normalized intensity in h− 1). Finally, the role of antecedent rainfall in causing landslides was also investigated by considering daily rainfall during failure and the cumulative rainfall to discover at what point antecedent rainfall plays an important role in Himalayan landslide processes. Rainfall thresholds presented in this paper are generalized so they can be used in landslide warning systems in the Nepal Himalaya.  相似文献   

9.
Sanjit K. Deb  Aly I. El-Kadi   《Geomorphology》2009,108(3-4):219-233
The deterministic Stability INdex MAPping (SINMAP) model, which integrates a mechanistic infinite-slope stability model and a hydrological model, was applied to assess susceptibility of slopes in 32 shallow-landslide-prone watersheds of the eastern to southern areas of Oahu, Hawaii, USA. Input to the model includes a 10-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM), an inventory of storm-induced landslides that occurred from 1949 to 2006, and listings of soil-strength and hydrological parameters including transmissivity and steady-state recharge. The study area of ca. 384 km2 was divided into four calibration regions with different geotechnical and hydrological characteristics. All parameter values were separately calibrated using observed landslides as references. The study used a quasi-dynamic scenario of soil wetness resulting from extreme daily rainfall events with a return period of 50 years. The return period was based on almost-90-year-long (1919–2007) daily rainfall records from 26 raingauge stations in the study area. Output of the SINMAP model includes slope-stability-index-distribution maps, slope-versus-specific-catchment-area charts, and statistical summaries for each region.The SINMAP model assessed susceptibility at the locations of all 226 observed shallow landslides and classified these susceptible areas as unstable. About 55% of the study area was predicted as highly unstable, highlighting a critical island problem. The SINMAP predictions were compared to an existing debris-flow-hazard map. Areas classified as unstable in the current study were classified as low-to-moderate and moderate-to-high debris-flow hazard risks by the prior mapping. The slope-stability maps provided by this study will aid in explaining the causes of known landslides, making emergency decisions, and, ultimately mitigating future landslide risks. The maps may be further improved by incorporating heterogeneous and anisotropic soil properties and spatial and temporal variation of rainfalls as well as by improving the accuracy of the DEM and the locations of shallow landslide initiation.  相似文献   

10.
A landslide-hazard map is intended to show the location of future slope instability. Most spatial models of the hazard lack reliability tests of the procedures and predictions for estimating the probabilities of future landslides, thus precluding use of the maps for probabilistic risk analysis. To correct this deficiency we propose a systematic procedure comprising two analytical steps: “relative-hazard mapping” and “empirical probability estimation”. A mathematical model first generates a prediction map by dividing an area into “prediction” classes according to the relative likelihood of occurrence of future landslides, conditional by local geomorphic and topographic characteristics. The second stage estimates empirically the probability of landslide occurrence in each prediction class, by applying a cross-validation technique. Cross-validation, a “blind test” here using non-overlapping spatial or temporal subsets of mapped landslides, evaluates accuracy of the prediction and from the resulting statistics estimates occurrence probabilities of future landslides. This quantitative approach, exemplified by several experiments in an area near Lisbon, Portugal, can accommodate any subsequent analysis of landslide risk.  相似文献   

11.
This study attempts to reconstruct the history of the Collinabos landslide, a landslide with a fresh morphology that is representative for more than 150 dormant, deep-seated (> 3 m) landslides in the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium). A geomorphological map was created based on LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)-derived maps and detailed field surveys. The map showed that the landslide consisted of three zones with significant differences in surface topography. The northern landslide zone 1 is characterised by at least five reverse slopes, whereas zones 2 and 3, the southern landslide zones, have only two reverse slopes and a convex foot. Electric resistivity profiles measured in zones 1 and 2 revealed that the differences in surface topography were not related to differences in internal structure as both parts of the landslide were initiated as a rotational earth slide with a surface of rupture at 15 m deep, where the displaced material broke apart in two blocks. However, two shear surfaces of reactivations within landslide debris were only distinguished in the accumulation area of zone 1. The observed differences in surface morphology can be caused by a temporary conversion of a forest into cropland in zone 2. It is suggested that reverse slopes of smaller reactivations within landslide debris were obliterated during the agricultural activities. AMS radiocarbon dating of organic material found in ponds located in reverse slopes generally resulted in relatively recent dates (i.e. 1400–1950 Cal AD) suggesting that several of the small local reactivations occurred in that period. One dating at 8700–8440 Cal BP of organic matter collected in a reverse slope in zone 1 suggests that an initiation under periglacial conditions cannot be excluded for the Collinabos landslide. By combining different technologies, this study provides valuable information for a better understanding of dormant landslides.  相似文献   

12.
Geomorphological information can be combined with decision-support tools to assess landslide hazard and risk. A heuristic model was applied to a rural municipality in eastern Cuba. The study is based on a terrain mapping units (TMU) map, generated at 1:50,000 scale by interpretation of aerial photos, satellite images and field data. Information describing 603 terrain units was collected in a database. Landslide areas were mapped in detail to classify the different failure types and parts. Three major landslide regions are recognized in the study area: coastal hills with rockfalls, shallow debris flows and old rotational rockslides denudational slopes in limestone, with very large deep-seated rockslides related to tectonic activity and the Sierra de Caujerí scarp, with large rockslides. The Caujerí scarp presents the highest hazard, with recent landslides and various signs of active processes. The different landforms and the causative factors for landslides were analyzed and used to develop the heuristic model. The model is based on weights assigned by expert judgment and organized in a number of components such as slope angle, internal relief, slope shape, geological formation, active faults, distance to drainage, distance to springs, geomorphological subunits and existing landslide zones. From these variables a hierarchical heuristic model was applied in which three levels of weights were designed for classes, variables, and criteria. The model combines all weights into a single hazard value for each pixel of the landslide hazard map. The hazard map was then divided by two scales, one with three classes for disaster managers and one with 10 detailed hazard classes for technical staff. The range of weight values and the number of existing landslides is registered for each class. The resulting increasing landslide density with higher hazard classes indicates that the output map is reliable. The landslide hazard map was used in combination with existing information on buildings and infrastructure to prepare a qualitative risk map. The complete lack of historical landslide information and geotechnical data precludes the development of quantitative deterministic or probabilistic models.  相似文献   

13.
At the end of March 2006, the Czech Republic (CZ) witnessed a fast thawing of an unusually thick snow cover in conjunction with massive rainfall. Most watercourses suffered floods, and more than 90 shallow landslides occurred in the Moravian region of Eastern CZ, primarily in non-forested areas. This region, geologically part of the Outer Western Carpathians, is prone to landslides because the bedrock is highly erodible Mesozoic and Tertiary flysch.The available meteorological data (depth of snow, water equivalent of the snow, cumulative rainfall, air and soil temperatures) from five local weather stations were used to construct indices quantitatively describing the snow thaw. Among these, the Total Cumulative Precipitation (TCP) combines the amount of water from both thawing snow and rainfall. This concurrence of rain and runoff from snow melt was the decisive factor in triggering the landslides in the spring.The TCP index was applied to data of snow thaw periods for the last 20 years, when no landslides were recorded. This was to establish the safe threshold of TCP without landslides. The calculated safe threshold value for the region is ca. 100 mm of water delivered to the soil during the spring thaw (corresponding to ca. 11 mm day− 1). In 2006, 10% of the landslides occurred under or at 100 mm of TCP. The upper value of 155 mm covered all of the landslides.  相似文献   

14.
GIS支持下的黄土高原地震滑坡区划研究   总被引：20，自引：4，他引：16  
分析了影响黄土滑坡的各项影响因子,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各影响因子的权重。在GIS支持下,建立包括各因子图的空间数据库,对各因子进行分级赋值,然后进行因子加权叠加分析,完成三种超越概率下(50年超越概率2%、10%和63.5%)黄土高原地震滑坡区划图。黄土地震滑坡灾害最严重地区一个是宁夏南部及与其相邻的甘肃白银地区,另一个是甘肃天水地区。  相似文献   

15.
Large-scale, low-gradient ancient landslides estimated at 5.4–18.9 km2 in area and  0.2–1.2 km3 in volume have been studied in the northern hilly periphery of the Crimean Mountains (Ukraine). They originated on slopes along wide water gaps of rivers (Belbek, Kacha, Alma and Biyuk–Karasu) crossing the cuestas of the northern foothills. The slopes generally consist of slightly northward tilting Miocene (mainly Sarmatian) limestones overlying weak, clay-rich Lower Neogene–Palaeogene substratum with a significant content of smectite. Although the region is characterised by the least active contemporary morphodynamics within the Crimean Mountains, the landslides which were studied are of the same size or even larger than various types of landslides occupying active geomorphic domains of the highest mountain range in the southernmost part of the peninsula. The landslides are generally a spreading type, but the sliding mechanics were probably very complex, involving toppling, rotational slides, gravitational folding and translational block slides. All the landslides which were studied are located in the vicinity of regional faults and three of them have headscarps aligned along faults. A common feature is also a location close (within several km) to the Mesozoic suture zone which is the most important tectonic feature in the northern periphery of the Crimean Orogene. This suture was formerly classified as aseismic; however, evidence of strong, low-frequency palaeoearthquakes was collected during the last decade within both the Mesozoic suture and the low-lying northern part of the Crimean Peninsula. Radiocarbon dating of deposits associated with the landslides has revealed at least two phases of increased landslide-activity during the Late Glacial chronozone and Holocene epoch. The main landslide phase presumably took place at some time between the Late Glacial and Atlantic chronozones. Minor reactivation of landslide toes occurred during the Subatlantic chronozone and some of them have been active up to recent times. The first major landslide phase was possibly triggered by an earthquake, whereas late Holocene activity can be attributed both to seismic and hydroclimatic factors.  相似文献   

16.
The distribution of a large number of clay slides in the Målselv valley, northern Norway, is analysed and put into context with the stratigraphic organization of the valley-fill sediments. About 32% of the landslides larger than 104 m3 occur close to the valley margins, where mud is either exposed or at shallow depth. About 57% of the landslides occur mid-valley, where relatively thin (< 15 m) coarse-grained deltaic sediments overlay fine-grained marine and glaciomarine sediments, and about 11% of the landslides occur in front of ice-contact deposits. The slide-prone areas are all characterized by the occurrence of heterogeneous sediments (interbedded clay, silt and sand), in addition to the presence of steep slopes eroded by rivers. The heterogeneous nature of the sediments probably enhanced groundwater drainage and leaching of salts from the clay, increasing sensitivity. Thus, the distribution and organization of the valley-fill sediments and groundwater drainage probably controlled the position of the slide scars and sliding planes. Since deglaciation of the valley (11,500 BP–present), isostatic rebound has enhanced fluvial incision and the creation of steep slopes due to a fall in relative sea level of up to 80 m.Arcuate-shaped, ‘bottleneck’ landslide scars ranging from c. 104 to 107 m3 in size is the dominant morphological signature of the slides, typical for quick clay slides or earth flows involving fluid mud. Their most common triggering mechanism is probably erosion at the toe slopes by the river Målselv or its tributaries. River erosion close to the valley margin, where glaciomarine and marine sediments are present, seems to give the most severe slides. The overall valley-fill organization controls the distribution of clay slides, which may apply to other fjord valleys having similar sediment distribution.  相似文献   

17.
A quantitative geomorphological study has been made on 27 river basins in Tahiti-Nui volcanic island (French Polynesia) to reconstruct the erosional evolution of a young oceanic island subjected to heavy tropical rainfall. Tahiti-Nui is composed of a main shield volcano cut by two huge landslides on each side of a main E–W rift zone. The northern landslide depression was rapidly buried by the construction of a second shield, the late activity of which overflowed the crest and then filled the southern landslide depression. The island is now volcanically inactive and is deeply dissected by erosion. The present geometries of the river basins are first compared using dimensionless parameters derived from a digital elevation model. The original volcanic surfaces are then reconstructed to estimate the volumes removed by erosion and determine the average rates of long-term erosion. The basins developed on the flanks of the main shield are wider, shallower, and gentler than the basins incising the post-landslide second shield, indicating a higher degree of evolution. Rainfall concentration on the windward (eastern) side of the island also contributed to increase the vertical lowering of the volcanic relief and the enlargement of the valleys. The magnitude of erosion, however, is neither directly linked with the age of the units incised nor with the differential amounts of rainfall. Erosion rates determined over the last 1 Myr range between 10− 3 km3 kyr− 1 and 0.25 km3 kyr− 1. The highest values occur in the basins incising the main E–W rift zone and/or the lateral rims of the northern and southern landslide depressions. Long-term dissection has thus been enhanced along the geological discontinuities of the eruptive system. Deep erosion was first constrained along the axis of the main E–W rift zone, where numerous dykes compartmentalize the volcanic structure into large unstable blocks. Dykes most probably acted as mechanical discontinuities along which shallow gravitational landslides recurrently occurred. Such mass-wasting episodes produced significant amounts of debris, partly preserved as highly indurated sedimentary breccias of various ages exposed at various locations. Subsequent dissection of Tahiti-Nui was enhanced to the north and to the south, leading to the rapid evolution of the Papenoo and Taharuu drainage systems over the last 500 kyr. Long-term dissection on Tahiti-Nui has been responsible for the removal of at least 350 km3 of volcanic material from the surface, and for the partial exhumation of a shallow intrusive complex partly composed of coarse-grained plutonic rocks (gabbros and syenites) in the central part of the eruptive system. Structurally controlled erosion is thus a key component of landscape evolution on such high-relief oceanic tropical islands.  相似文献   

18.
Probability maps of landslide reactivation are presented for the Pra Bellon landslide located in the southern French Alps based on results obtained with dendrogeomorphic analysis. Spatiotemporal patterns of past landslide activity was derived from tree-ring series of 403 disturbed mountain pine trees growing in the landslide body. In total, 704 growth disturbances were identified in the samples indicating 22 reactivation phases of the landslide body between 1910 and 2011. The mean return period was 4.5 years. Given the spatiotemporal completeness of the reconstruction, probabilities of landslide reactivation were computed and illustrated using a Poisson distribution model and for 5, 20, 50, and 100 years. Probability of landslide reactivation is highest in the central part of the landslide body and increases from 0.13 for a 5-year period to 0.94 for a 100-year period. Conversely, probabilities of reactivation are lower at its margins. The proposed method differs from conventional approaches based on statistical analyses or physical modeling that have demonstrated to have limitations in the prediction of spatiotemporal reactivation of landslides. Our approach is, in contrast, based on extensive data on past landslides and therefore allowed determination of quantitative probability maps of reactivation derived directly from the frequency of past events. This approach is considered a valuable tool for land managers in charge of protecting and forecasting people and their assets from the negative effects of landslides as well as for those responsible for land use planning and management. It demonstrates the reliability of dendrogeomorphic mapping that should be used systematically in forested shallow landslides.  相似文献   

19.
In the Mediterranean area, forest fires have become a first-order environmental problem. Increased fire frequency progressively reduces ecosystem recovery periods. The fire season, usually followed by torrential rains in autumn, intensifies erosion processes and increases desertification risk. In this work, the effect of repeated experimental fires on soil response to water erosion is studied in the Permanent Field Station of La Concordia, Valencia, Spain. In nine 80 m2 plots (20 m long × 4 m wide), all runoff and sediment produced were measured after each rainfall event. In 1995, two fire treatments with the addition of different biomass amounts were applied. Three plots were burned with high fire intensity, three with moderate intensity, and three were unburned to be used as control. In 2003, the plots with the fire treatments were burned again with low fire intensities. During the 8-year interval between fires, plots remained undisturbed, allowing regeneration of the vegetation–soil system. Results obtained during the first 5 months after both fire experiments show the high vulnerability of the soil to erosion after a repeated fire. For the burned plots, runoff rates increased three times more than those of 1995, and soil losses increased almost twice. The highest sediment yield (514 g m− 2) was measured in 2003, in the plots of the moderate fire intensity treatment, which yielded only 231 g m− 2 of sediment during the corresponding period in 1995. Runoff yield from the control plots did not show significant temporal changes, while soil losses decreased from 5 g m− 2 in the first post-fire period to 0.7 g m− 2 in the second one.  相似文献   

20.
The paper describes a methodology to detect landslide triggering scenarios in geological homogeneous areas and for some specific landslide categories. In these scenarios, the rainfall–landslide relationship as well as the pluviometric load conditions influencing slope instability have to be investigated.The methodology is applied to an area located in northern Calabria (Italy) and affected by widespread and different slope instability phenomena. Outcropped, fractured, and deeply weathered crystalline rock masses, determining geologic homogeneous conditions, are present. In the same area, suitable and homogeneous climatic features have also been found.According to the methodology adopted, the hydrologic analysis of rainfall time-series is initially carried out notwithstanding historical data concerning landslide mobilization, but using simple models to determine critical pluviometric scenarios for the three landslide categories: shallow, medium-deep, and deep. Landslide-triggering scenarios individualized according to this procedure are less significant as compared to the landslide mobilization detected in the study area by means of historical research and ascribed to the three landslide categories according to geomorphologic analysis.Subsequently, the possible landslide triggering scenarios are outlined by carefully investigating the hydrologic analysis limited to the periods identified according to the historical data.In the study area and approximately for all the areas characterized by the outcrop of fractured and deeply weathered crystalline rocks, significant triggering scenarios can be outlined. In particular, shallow landslide triggers could be activated by rainfall events with intensities exceeding 90 mm/day and/or with amounts exceeding 160 mm. As for medium-deep and deep landslides, triggering mechanisms are more complicated; and effective rainfall contribution must be taken into account compared to groundwater storage. Moreover, a more complex link between deep landslides and precipitation is confirmed.The results obtained to date highlight the potential of this methodology, which enables us to define and progressively improve the knowledge framework by means of a work sequence integrating different disciplinary tools and results.  相似文献   

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