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1.
— Earthquake fault systems are now thought to be an example of a complex nonlinear system (Bak, et al., 1987; Rundle and Klein, 1995). The spatial and temporal complexity of this system translates into a similar complexity in the surface expression of the underlying physics, including deformation and seismicity. Here we show that a new pattern dynamic methodology can be used to define a unique, finite set of deformation patterns for the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). Similar in nature to the empirical orthogonal functions historically employed in the analysis of atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena (Preisendorfer, 1988), the method derives the eigenvalues and eigenstates from the diagonalization of the correlation matrix using a Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) (Fukunaga, 1970; Rundle et al., 2000; Tiampo et al., 2002). This KLE technique may be used to determine the important modes in both time and space for the southern California GPS data, modes that potentially include such time-dependent signals as plate velocities, viscoelasticity, and seasonal effects. Here we attempt to characterize several of the seasonal vertical signals on various spatial scales. These, in turn, can be used to better model geophysical signals of interest such as coseismic deformation, viscoelastic effects, and creep, as well as provide data assimilation and model verification for large-scale numerical simulations of southern California.  相似文献   

2.
In the early eighties Rundle (1980, 1981a,b, 1982) developed the techniques needed for calculations of displacements and gravity changes due to internal sources of strain in layered linear elastic-gravitational media. The approximation of the solution for the half space was obtained by using the propagator matrix technique. The Earth model considered is elastic-gravitational, composed of several homogeneous layers overlying a bottom half space. Two dislocation sources can be considered, representing magma intrusions and faults. In recent decades theoretical and computational extensions of that model have been developed by Rundle and co-workers (e.g., Fernández and Rundle, 1994a,b; Fernández et al., 1997, 2005a; Tiampo et al., 2004; Charco et al., 2006, 2007a,b). The source can be located at any depth in the media. In this work we prove that the perturbed equations representing the elastic-gravitational deformation problem, with the natural boundary and transmission conditions, leads to a well-posed problem even for varied domains and general data. We present constructive proof of the existence and we show the uniqueness and the continuous dependence with respect to the data of weak solutions of the coupled elastic-gravitational field equations.  相似文献   

3.
Rundle模式地震滞后环和突变现象研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
基于耗散结构理论详细研究了地震活动的主要特征。研究结果表明，地震活动呈现双稳态及尖拐突变现象，主要表现是：发生在应力临界值区间[-pc,pc]内的滞后现象和发生在临界值pc和-pc处的突变现象，前对应系统变能积累过程，后（即强震过程）地该系统能量的主要耗散机制。  相似文献   

4.
— An algorithm recently developed by RUNDLE et al. (2002) to find regions of anomalous seismic activity associated with large earthquakes identified the location of an M w = 5.6 earthquake near Calexico, Mexico. In this paper we analyze the regional seismicity before this event, and a nearby M w = 5.7 event, using time-to-failure algorithms developed by BOWMAN et al. (1998) and BOWMAN and KING (2001a,b). The former finds the radius of a circular region surrounding the epicenter that optimizes the time-to-failure acceleration of seismic release. The latter optimizes acceleration based on the expected stress accumulation pattern for a dislocation source. Both methods found a period of accelerating seismicity in an optimal region, the size of which agrees with previously proposed scaling relations. This positive result suggests that the Rundle algorithm may provide a useful technique to identify regions of accelerating seismicity, which can then be analyzed using signal optimization time-to-failure techniques.  相似文献   

5.
The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is a proposed technique to predict earthquakes that was first put forward by Yin (1987). LURR is based on the idea that when an area enters the damage regime, the rate of seismic activity during loading of the tidal cycle increases relative to the rate of seismic activity during unloading in the months to one year preceding a large earthquake. Since earth tides generally contribute the largest temporal variations in crustal stress, it seems plausible that earth tides would trigger earthquakes in areas that are close to failure (e.g., Vidale et al., 1998). However, the vast majority of studies have shown that earth tides do not trigger earthquakes (e.g., Vidale et al., 1998; Heaton, 1982; Rydelek et al., 1992). In this study, we conduct an independent test of the LURR method, since there would be important scientific and social implications if it were proven to be a robust method of earthquake prediction. Smith and Sammis (2004) undertook a similar study and found no evidence that there was predictive significance to the LURR method. We have repeated calculations of LURR for the Northridge earthquake in California, following both the parameters of X.C. Yin (personal communication) and the somewhat different ones of Smith and Sammis (2004). Though we have followed both sets of parameters closely, we have been unable to reproduce either set of results. Our examinations have shown that the LURR method is very sensitive to certain parameters. Thus it seems likely that the discrepancies between our results and those of previous studies are due to unaccounted for differences in the calculation parameters. A general agreement was made at the 2004 ACES Workshop in China between research groups studying LURR to work cooperatively to resolve the differences in methods and results, and thus permit more definitive conclusions on the potential usefulness of the LURR method in earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

6.
—?The aim of our study consists of analyzing potentially non-double-couple seismic events recorded at regional distances. In order to define the nature of the seismic source, a moment tensor inversion is carried out as this method is general enough not to initially constrain the source mechanism. In this paper we present an application to a seismic event induced by a mine collapse which occurred near the town of Halle in Germany. Because of its induced nature, many parameters such as the location and geometry of this seismic source are known. This information allows us to test the influence of inadequate propagation modeling on the moment tensor obtained from the inversion. Green's functions have been computed with the reflectivity method in a flat layered medium, using the European model EurID (Du et? al., 1998; Dufumier et al., 1997). From the inversion of P-wave seismograms recorded by the German Regional Seismic Network will, we obtained a source time function which can be decomposed into two subevents. The first one has a large isotropic part and a deviatoric mechanism with near vertical nodal planes. No volume change is observed for the second subevent, but a deviatoric component opposite of the first one. The addition of S-waves does not change the results of the inversion which are stable. Surface waves were not used because of their poor dispersion curves. Based on the moment tensor obtained from these inversions, the physical process at the source is compatible with a large cavity collapse.  相似文献   

7.
— Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (Mora et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(k T) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, A T/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.  相似文献   

8.
Because seismic activity within mid-continents is usually much lower than that along plate boundary zones, even small earthquakes can cause widespread concerns, especially when these events occur in the source regions of previous large earthquakes. However, these small earthquakes may be just aftershocks that continue for decades or even longer. The recent seismicity in the Tangshan region in North China is likely aftershocks of the 1976 Great Tangshan earthquake. The current earthquake sequence in the New Madrid seismic zone in central United States, which includes a cluster of M ~ 7.0 events in 1811–1812 and a number of similar events in the past millennium, is believed to result from recent fault reactivation that releases pre-stored strain energy in the crust. If so, this earthquake sequence is similar to aftershocks in that the rates of energy release should decay with time and the sequence of earthquakes will eventually end. We use simple physical analysis and numerical simulations to show that the current sequence of large earthquakes in the New Madrid fault zone is likely ending or has ended. Recognizing that mid-continental earthquakes have long aftershock sequences and complex spatiotemporal occurrences are critical to improve hazard assessments.  相似文献   

9.
Recently the equilibrium property of ergodicity was identified in an earthquake fault system (Tiampo et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 238501, 2003; Phys. Rev. E 75, 066107, 2007). Ergodicity in this context not only requires that the system is stationary for these networks at the applicable spatial and temporal scales, but also implies that they are in a state of metastable equilibrium, one in which the ensemble averages can be substituted for temporal averages when studying their behavior in space and time. In this work we show that this property can be used to identify those regions of parameter space which are stationary when applied to the seismicity of two naturally-occurring earthquake fault networks. We apply this measure to one particular seismicity-based forecasting tool, the Pattern Informatics index (Tiampo et al., Europhys. Lett. 60, 481–487, 2002; Rundle et al., Proc. National Acad. Sci., U.S.A., Suppl. 1, 99, 2463, 2002), in order to test the hypothesis that the identification of ergodic regions can be used to improve and optimize forecasts that rely on historic seismicity catalogs. We also apply the same measure to synthetic catalogs in order to better understand the physical process that affects this accuracy. We show that, in particular, ergodic regions defined by magnitude and time period provide more reliable forecasts of future events in both natural and synthetic catalogs, and that these improvements can be directly related to specific features or properties of the catalogs that impact the behavior of their spatial and temporal statistics.  相似文献   

10.
—Large, extended fault systems such as those in California demonstrate complex space-time seismicity patterns, which include repetitive events, precursory activity and quiescence, and aftershock sequences. Although the characteristics of these patterns can be qualitatively described, a systematic quantitative analysis remains elusive. Our research suggests that a new pattern dynamics methodology can be used to define a unique, finite set of seismicity patterns for a given fault system. In addition, while a long-sought goal of earthquake research has been the reliable forecasting of these events, very little progress has been made in developing a successful, consistent methodology. In this report, we document the discovery of systematic space-time variations in seismicity from southern California using a new technique. Here we present examples of this analysis technique on data obtained prior to events in seismically active areas that show coherent regions associated with the future occurrence of major earthquakes in the same areas. These results strongly support the hypothesis that seismic activity is highly correlated across many space and time scales within large volumes of the earth's crust.  相似文献   

11.
Advances in sensor techniques, digital acquisition, communication and computing allowed establishment of the field of real-time seismology (Kanamori et al., 1997) and the design of earthquake information systems that provide rapid information on ground motion and potential damage in an area for which a ground motion estimation data base is available and where the inventory of buildings and infrastructure and its vulnerability to shaking is known. We discuss a system for the Romanian capital of Bucharest, where an early warning system with about 30 seconds lead time, shake maps and a sophisticated damage estimation tool for Bucharest have been developed in the frame of the Collaborative Research Center on Strong Earthquakes ().  相似文献   

12.
Universality of the Seismic Moment-frequency Relation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
—We analyze the seismic moment-frequency relation in various depth ranges and for different seismic regions, using Flinn-Engdahl's regionalization of global seismicity. Three earthquake lists of centroid-moment tensor data have been used the Harvard catalog, the USGS catalog, and the Huang et al. (1997) catalog of deep earthquakes. The results confirm the universality of the β-values and the maximum moment for shallow earthquakes in continental regions, as well as at and near continental boundaries. Moreover, we show that although fluctuations in earthquake size distribution increase with depth, the β-values for earthquakes in the depth range of 0–500 km exhibit no statistically significant regional variations. The regional variations are significant only for deep events near the 660 km boundary. For declustered shallow earthquake catalogs and deeper events, we show that the worldwide β-values have the same value of 0.60 ± 0.02. This finding suggests that the β-value is a universal constant. We investigate the statistical correlations between the numbers of seismic events in different depth ranges and the correlation of the tectonic deformation rate and seismic activity (the number of earthquakes above a certain threshold level per year). The high level of these correlations suggests that seismic activity indicates tectonic deformation rate in subduction zones. Combined with the universality of the β-value, this finding implies little if any variation in maximum earthquake seismic moment among various subduction zones. If we assume that earthquakes of maximum size are similar in different depth ranges and the seismic efficiency coefficient, χ, is close to 100% for shallow seismicity, then we can estimate χ for deeper earthquakes for intermediate earthquakes χ≈ 5%, and χ≈ 1% for deep events. These results may lead to new theoretical understanding of the earthquake process and better estimates of seismic hazard.  相似文献   

13.
Western Turkey has a long history of destructive earthquakes that are responsible for the death of thousands of people and which caused devastating damage to the existing infrastructures, and cultural and historical monuments. The recent earthquakes of Izmit (Kocaeli) on 17 August, 1999 (M w  = 7.4) and Düzce (M w  = 7.2) on 12 November, 1999, which occurred in the neighboring fault segments along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), were catastrophic ones for the Marmara region and surroundings in NW Turkey. Stress transfer between the two adjacent fault segments successfully explained the temporal proximity of these events. Similar evidence is also provided from recent studies dealing with successive strong events occurrence along the NAF and parts of the Aegean Sea; in that changes in the stress field due to the coseismic displacement of the stronger events influence the occurrence of the next events of comparable size by advancing their occurrence time and delimiting their occurrence place. In the present study the evolution of the stress field since the beginning of the twentieth century in the territory of the eastern Aegean Sea and western Turkey is examined, in an attempt to test whether the history of cumulative changes in stress can explain the spatial and temporal occurrence patterns of large earthquakes in this area. Coulomb stress changes are calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in elastic half space, taking into account both the coseismic slip in large (M ≥ 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for strike-slip and normal faults. In each stage of the evolutionary model the stress field is calculated according to the strike, dip, and rake angles of the next large event, whose triggering is inspected, and the possible sites for future strong earthquakes can be assessed. A new insight on the evaluation of future seismic hazards is given by translating the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability using an earthquake nucleation constitutive relation, which includes permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes.  相似文献   

14.
In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recurrence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and considering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of M S≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.  相似文献   

15.
—?The maximum possible (regional) magnitude Mmax and other seismic hazard parameters like β which is the slope of Gutenberg-Richter law, and λ which is the intensity (rate) of seismic activity are estimated in eight seismic regions of the west side of the circum-Pacific belt. The Bayesian approach, as described by (Pisarenko et?al., 1996; Pisarenko and Lyubushin, 1997, 1999) is a straightforward technique of estimating the seismic hazard. The main assumptions for the method applied are a Poissonian character of seismic events flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg-Richter's type with cutoff maximum value for the estimated parameter and a seismic catalog, which have a rather sizeable number of events. We also estimated the quantiles of the probabilistic distribution of the “apparent” Mmax for future given time-length intervals.  相似文献   

16.
Rundle模式地震的爆发判据   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文
介绍了Rtadle模式地震分叉结构理论的要点,在此基础上,根据能量极小值原理,分别推导出Rundle模式地震的弱震和强震爆发判据．  相似文献   

17.
We develop a data set of aftershock recordings of the 1999, M = 7.4 Izmit and M = 7.2 Duzce (Turkey) earthquakes to study their source parameters. We combined seismograms from 44 stations maintained by several sources (organizations) to obtain a unified data set of events (2.1 ≤ Mw ≤ 5.5). We calculate source parameters of these small earthquakes by two methods that use different techniques to address the difficulty in obtaining source spectra for small earthquakes subject to interference from site response. One method (program NetMoment (NM), Hutchings, 2004) uses spectra of direct S waves in a simultaneous inversion of local high-frequency network data to estimate seismic moment, source corner frequency (fc), site attenuation (k) and whole-path Q. This approach takes advantage of the source commonality in all recordings for a particular earthquake by fitting a common Brune source spectrum to the data with a and individual k. The second approach (Mayeda et al., 2003) uses the coda method (CM) to obtain “nonmodel-based” source spectra and moment estimates from selected broadband recording sites. We found that both methods do well for events that allow the comparison with seismic moment estimates derived from waveform modeling. Also, source spectra obtained from the two methods are very closely matched for most of the events they have in common. We use an F test to examine the trade-off between k and fc picks identified by the direct S-wave method. About half of the events could be constrained to have less than a 50% average uncertainty in fc and k. We used these source spectra solutions to calculate energy and apparent stress and compare these to estimates from the selected “good quality” source spectra from CM. Both studies have values mutually consistent and show a similar increase in apparent stress with increasing moment. This result has added merit due to the independent approaches to calculate apparent stress. We conclude that both methods are at least partially validated by our study, and they both have usefulness for different circumstances of recording local small earthquakes. CM would work well in studies for which there is a broad magnitude range of events and NM works well for local events recorded by band-limited recorders.  相似文献   

18.
We estimate seismological fracture energies from two subsets of events selected from the seismic sequences of L’Aquila (2009), and Northridge (1994): 57 and 16 selected events, respectively, including the main shocks. Following Abercrombie and Rice (Geophys J Int 162: 406–424, 2005), we postulate that fracture energy (G) represents the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve, which is described by the evolution of shear traction as a function of slip. Following a direct-wave approach, we compute mainshock-/aftershock-source spectral ratios, and analyze them using the approach proposed by Malagnini et al. (Pure Appl. Geophys., this issue, 2014) to infer corner frequencies and seismic moment. Our estimates of source parameters (including fracture energies) are based on best-fit grid-searches performed over empirical source spectral ratios. We quantify the source scaling of spectra from small and large earthquakes by using the MDAC formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001). The source parameters presented in this paper must be considered as point-source estimates representing averages calculated over specific ruptured portions of the fault area. In order to constrain the scaling of fracture energy with coseismic slip, we investigate two different slip-weakening functions to model the shear traction as a function of slip: (i) a power law, as suggested by Abercrombie and Rice (Geophys J Int 162: 406–424, 2005), and (ii) an exponential decay. Our results show that the exponential decay of stress on the fault allows a good fit between measured and predicted fracture energies, both for the main events and for their aftershocks, regardless of the significant differences in the energy budgets between the large (main) and small earthquakes (aftershocks). Using the power-law slip-weakening function would lead us to a very different situation: in our two investigated sequences, if the aftershock scaling is extrapolated to events with large slips, a power law (a la Abercrombie and Rice) would predict unrealistically large stress drops for large, main earthquakes. We conclude that the exponential stress evolution law has the advantage of avoiding unrealistic stress drops and unbounded fracture energies at large slip values, while still describing the abrupt shear-stress degradation observed in high-velocity laboratory experiments (e.g., Di Toro et al., Fault lubrication during earthquakes, Nature 2011).  相似文献   

19.
《Journal of Geodynamics》2003,35(1-2):59-81
Main features of the August–December 2000 earthquake swarm which occurred in the major focal area of the North-West Bohemia / Vogtland swarm region are presented. Seismograms from four stations of WEBNET were automatically processed to get arrival times, first motion amplitudes and hypocentre coordinates of a representative set of events. Altogether 7017 microearthquakes in the magnitude range of ML=0–3.3 were identified. It is shown the decay of activity of individual swarm phases followed the modified Omori law, which points to a partial similarity with aftershock sequences of tectonic earthquakes. The space-time distribution of a subset of 2913 events with low location residuals shows a strong space clustering of the earthquake hypocentres and their pronounced migration between individual swarm phases. Most of the activity took place along an elliptical, nearly vertically dipping, 6 km long N-S oriented fault plane in depths ranging from 10.5 to 6.5 km. The P and T axes were estimated by FOCMEC for the 782 strong events and three groups of earthquakes with similar faulting type were distinguished. In contrast to the normal and strike-slip faulting events that created the prevailing portion of the swarm and were distributed uniformly within the focal area, the reverse events were clustered in time and space.  相似文献   

20.
—?We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r ?p dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.  相似文献   

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