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1.
The Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory has developed conceptual daily models for simulating moisture storages in and runoff from the 121 watersheds draining into the Laurentian Great Lakes, over-lake precipitation into each lake, and the heat storages in and evaporation from each lake. We combine these components as net basin supplies for each lake to consider climate change scenarios developed from atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). Recent scenarios of a doubling of atmospheric Co2, available from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and Oregon State University are considered by making changes in historical meteorological data similar to the changes observed in the GCMs, observing the impact of the changed data in the model outputs, and comparing outputs to model results using unchanged data, representing comparison to an unchanged atmosphere. This study indicates a 23 to 51% reduction in net basin supplies to all the Great Lakes; there is significant variation in the components of these supplies among the three GCMs. The basins various moisture storages become dryer and the lakes are warmer with associated hydrological impacts.GLERL Contribution NO. 646.  相似文献   

2.
Hydrological models of the Great Lakes basin were used to study the sensitivity of Great Lakes water supplies to climate warming by driving them with meteorological data from four U.S. climate zones that were transposed to the basin. Widely different existing climates were selected for transposition in order to identify thresholds of change where major impacts on water supplies begin to occur and whether there are non-linear responses in the system. The climate zones each consist of 43 years of daily temperature and precipitation data for 1,000 or more stations and daily evaporation-related variables (temperature, wind speed, humidity, cloud cover) for approximately 20–35 stations. A key characteristic of these selected climates was much larger variability in inter-annual precipitation than currently experienced over the Great Lakes. Climate data were adjusted to simulate lake effects; however, a comparison of hydrologic results with and without lake effects showed that there was only minor effects on water supplies.  相似文献   

3.
Experiments with a coupled lake-catchment model show that lakes in temperate humid climates are highly sensitive to changes in both mean annual and seasonal precipitation. Simulations of three lakes from northern Europe (Lake Bysjön, Sweden; Lakes Karujärv and Viljandi, Estonia) show that lake level is more sensitive to decreases than to increases in precipitation. Increased precipitation results in increased runoff, but this is largely compensated by increased outflow and the change in lake level is small. Reductions in winter (November-April) precipitation have a bigger impact on simulated lake level than changes in summer (May-October) precipitation. Evapotranspiration is highly sensitive to reduction in precipitation, particularly in summer, but relatively insensitive to increased precipitation. Runoff decreases more rapidly with a decrease in winter precipitation and increased precipitation will linearly increase runoff. To match observed lake-level changes at Lake Bysjön at 9000 and 6000?y. BP (ca 6–7?m and 4–5?m lower than present respectively), without changing other climate parameters, would require a decrease in annual precipitation of about 400–500?mm and 350–400?mm respectively. The same changes in lake level could be produced by decreasing precipitation in winter precipitation by about –200?mm and about ?175?mm respectively. The simulations suggest that a lake, which is large relative to its catchment, is more likely to register lake-level changes caused by changes in climate.  相似文献   

4.
Regional climate modelling represents an appealing approach to projecting Great Lakes water supplies under a changing climate. In this study, we investigate the response of the Great Lakes Basin to increasing greenhouse gas and aerosols emissions using an ensemble of sixteen climate change simulations generated by three different Regional Climate Models (RCMs): CRCM4, HadRM3 and WRFG. Annual and monthly means of simulated hydro-meteorological variables that affect Great Lakes levels are first compared to observation-based estimates. The climate change signal is then assessed by computing differences between simulated future (2041–2070) and present (1971–1999) climates. Finally, an analysis of the annual minima and maxima of the Net Basin Supply (NBS), derived from the simulated NBS components, is conducted using Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Results reveal notable model differences in simulated water budget components throughout the year, especially for the lake evaporation component. These differences are reflected in the resulting NBS. Although uncertainties in observation-based estimates are quite large, our analysis indicates that all three RCMs tend to underestimate NBS in late summer and fall, which is related to biases in simulated runoff, lake evaporation, and over-lake precipitation. The climate change signal derived from the total ensemble mean indicates no change in future mean annual NBS. However, our analysis suggests an amplification of the NBS annual cycle and an intensification of the annual NBS minima in future climate. This emphasizes the need for an adaptive management of water to minimize potential negative implications associated with more severe and frequent NBS minima.  相似文献   

5.
A catchment model coupled with a lake thermal model has been used to simulate the lake water balance of Lake Qinghai, a large inland lake on the northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. The sensitivity analyses show that changes in precipitation will produce larger changes in runoff than temperature and cloudiness, whereas changes in lake level are equally sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation. With a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, four GCMs experiments predict warmer and wetter conditions in the Qinghai region than at present. The total runoff in the lake basin and evaporation will, in most cases, increase as conditions become warmer and wetter. The lake level changes would remain uncertain because the effects of an increase in precipitation are countered by the rise of temperature.  相似文献   

6.
Climate change impacts on Laurentian Great Lakes levels   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  
Scenarios of water supplies reflecting CO2-induced climatic change are used to determine potential impacts on levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes and likely water management policy implications. The water supplies are based on conceptual models that link climate change scenarios from general circulation models to estimates of basin runoff, overlake precipitation, and lake evaporation. The water supply components are used in conjunction with operational regulation plans and hydraulic routing models of outlet and connecting channel flows to estimate water levels on Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, Erie, and Ontario. Three steady-state climate change scenarios, corresponding to modeling a doubling of atmospheric CO2, are compared to a steady-state simulation obtained with historical data representing an unchanged atmosphere. One transient climate change scenario, representing a modeled transition from present conditions to doubled CO2 concentrations, is compared to a transient simulation with historical data. The environmental, socioeconomic, and policy implications of the climate change effects modeled herein suggest that new paradigms in water management will be required to address the prospective increased allocation conflicts between users of the Great Lakes.GLERL Contribution No. 645.  相似文献   

7.
A new method is proposed to estimate future net basin supplies and lake levels for the Laurentian Great Lakes based on GCM projections of global climate change. The method first dynamically downscales the GCM simulation with a regional climate model, and then bias—corrects the simulated net basin supply in order to be used directly in a river—routing/lake level scheme. This technique addresses two weaknesses in the traditional approach, whereby observed sequences of climate variables are perturbed with fixed ratios or differences derived directly from GCMs in order to run evaporation and runoff models. Specifically, (1) land surface—atmosphere feedback processes are represented, and (2) changes in variability can be analyzed with the new approach. The method is demonstrated with a single, high resolution simulation, where small changes in future mean lake levels for all the upper Great Lakes are found, and an increase in seasonal range—especially for Lake Superior—is indicated. Analysis of a small ensemble of eight lower resolution regional climate model simulations supports these findings. In addition, a direct comparison with the traditional approach based on the same GCM projections used as the driving simulations in this ensemble shows that the new method indicates smaller declines in level for all the upper Great Lakes than has been reported previously based on the traditional method, though median differences are only a few centimetres in each case.  相似文献   

8.
Changes in lake levels during the last 12000 years in eastern North America show spatially coherent patterns, implying climatic control. Conditions were generally wetter than today during the late glacial, becoming more arid towards 6000 years BP when most lakes were low. Lakes rose after 6000 years BP, reaching modern levels by about 3000 years BP. These palaeohydrological changes broadly agree with simulated changes in moisture balance derived from experiments with the NCAR Community Climate Model (Kutzbach and Guetter 1986) with changing orbital parameters and lower boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature and ice extent). However, the model simulates maximum aridity at 9000 years BP. Data and model show broadly similar spatial patterns, implying that the lake-level changes can be explained by the changing boundary conditions and their effects on atmospheric circulation. At 12000 years BP most lakes were high because of increased precipitation along the jet-stream storm-track south of the ice sheet. By 9000 years BP, with the much reduced ice sheet, many lakes along the eastern seaboard and in the southeast were lower than present because of greater evaporation due to high summer insolation. The warming of the continental interior generated an enhanced monsoon low in the southwest, causing increased southerly flow which helped to maintain higher lakes in the Midwest. Dry conditions spread eastwards across the Midwest between 9000 and 6000 years BP. This effect is not shown by the model, which continues to bring monsoonal precipitation into the Midwest while simulating enhanced westerly flow and drier conditions further to the west. Such displacements of circulation features are unimportant at the continental scale, but could be significant if general circulation models are used for regionalscale predictions of changes in the moisture balance.  相似文献   

9.
This paper represents an attempt to combine the output of several models that deal with future climatic, hydrologic and economic conditions in the Great Lakes and makes some predictions about the possible impact of one scenario of 2 × CO2 climate on Great Lakes shipping. It is realized that there is a great deal of uncertainty in all the models and that improvements are continually being made. Data from a General Circulation Model of future temperature and precipitation in the Great Lakes basin, a Great Lakes levels and flows model from the Canada Centre for Inland Waters and an International Joint Commision's Great Lakes economic model modified by the University of Wisconsin were used. The 1900–1976 period of lake levels and flows was used. The hydrologic model indicated that future mean lake levels may be reduced by one-half meter, and that the extreme low levels of the mid 1960's could occur 77% of the time in the future. No ice cover is predicted for any lake except Erie, permitting an eleven month shipping season. Five scenarios of future impact on shipping were evaluated. It was found that mean annual shipping costs may increase by 30% and the frequency of years when costs exceed those of the period of low lake levels (1963–65) could rise to 97%. Possible policy options in a future with climatically induced lower lake levels could include regulation to keep levels artificially high by diversions into the system, or increased dredging of the connecting channels.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract

This study reports on the implementation of an interactive mixed‐layer/thermodynamic‐ice lake model coupled with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). For this application the CRCM, which uses a grid mesh of 45 km on a polar stereographic projection, 10 vertical levels, and a timestep of 15 min, is nested with the second generation Canadian General Circulation Model (GCM) simulated output. A numerical simulation of the climate of eastern North America, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, is then performed in order to evaluate the coupled model. The lakes are represented by a “mixed layer” model to simulate the evolution of the surface water temperature, and a thermodynamic ice model to simulate evolution of the ice cover. The mixed‐layer depth is allowed to vary spatially. Lake‐ice leads are parametrized as a function of ice thickness based on observations. Results from a 5‐year integration show that the coupled CRCM/lake model is capable of simulating the seasonal evolution of surface temperature and ice cover in the Great Lakes. When compared with lake climatology, the simulated mean surface water temperature agrees within 0.12°C on average. The seasonal evolution of the lake‐ice cover is realistic but the model tends to underestimate the monthly mean ice concentration on average. The simulated winter lake‐induced precipitation is also shown, and snow accumulation patterns on downwind shores of the lakes are found to be realistic when compared with observations.  相似文献   

11.
Recent and Future Climate Change in Northwest China   总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24  
As a consequence of global warming and an enhanced water cycle, the climate changed in northwest China, most notably in the Xinjiang area in the year 1987. Precipitation, glacial melt water and river runoff and air temperature increased continuously during the last decades, as did also the water level of inland lakes and the frequency of flood disasters. As a result, the vegetation cover is improved, number of days with sand-dust storms reduced. From the end of the 19th century to the 1970s, the climate was warm and dry, and then changed to warm and wet. The effects on northwest China can be classified into three classes by using the relation between precipitation and evaporation increase. If precipitation increases more than evaporation, runoff increases and lake water levels rise. We identify regions with: (1) notable change, (2) slight change and (3) no change. The future climate for doubled CO2 concentration is simulated in a nested approach with the regional climate model-RegCM2. The annual temperature will increase by 2.7 ^ C and annual precipitation by 25%. The cooling effect of aerosols and natural factors will reduce this increase to 2.0 ^C and 19% of precipitation. As a consequence, annual runoff may increase by more than 10%.  相似文献   

12.
Scenarios of CO2-induced climatic change, based on models produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), were used to estimate future changes in water supply in the Great Lakes Basin. The major components of annual Net Basin Supply, surface runoff and lake evaporation, were estimated using the Thornthwaite water balance model and the mass transfer approach, respectively. Two scenarios were derived from each climatic change model, one based on present normal winds, the other assuming reduced wind speeds. A third scenario was derived from GFDL, using wind speeds generated by the GFDL model. Results varied from a decrease in Net Basin Supply of 28.9% for GISS-normal winds, to a decrease of 11.7% for GFDL-reduced wind speeds. All five scenarios projected decreases. These differences in projection will have to be considered when performing climate impact studies, since economic activities affected by lake levels would probably experience different impacts under these scenarios.  相似文献   

13.
The response of lake levels and areas to climatic change   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The levels and areas of lakes, particularly closed lakes (those without outlet) are known to be sensitive indicators of changes in climate, and so in principle they can play a role in monitoring current and future climatic changes. In this paper we derive solutions to the water balance equation giving the response of the level and area of closed lakes to steps, spikes and sinusoidal variations in aridity, and show that such a lake acts approximately as a simple low pass filter having a characteristic equilibrium response timeτ e. We also review the similar response of open lakes to changes in runoff. It is shown howτ e depends on lake geomorphology and climate, and for a number of lakes we calculateτ e values, ranging from 1.5 to 350 yr for closed lakes, and from 2.9 days to 2 yr for open lakes. We propose methods involving Fourier analysis for inverting closed lake level or area records to obtain plots of a simple aridity index C. It is shown that for all ≈ 200 of the world's large (? 100 km2) closed lakes, satellite remote sensing of lake levels and areas is currently sensitive enough to monitor variations in C (e.g. in average basin precipitation) of order 1% to 10% on the time-scale of years to decades.  相似文献   

14.
Lake-level records provide a rich resource of information about past changes in effective moisture, but water-balance fluctuations can be driven by a number of different climate variables and it is often difficult to pinpoint their exact cause. This understanding is essential, however, for reconciling divergent paleo-records or for making predictions about future lake-level variations. This research uses a series of models, the NCAR CCSM3, a lake energy-balance and a lake water-balance model, to examine the reasons for lake-level changes in monsoonal Asia and arid central Asia between the early (8.5 ka), middle (6.0 ka) and late (ca. 1800 AD) Holocene. Our results indicate that the components of the lake water balance responsible for lake-level changes varied by region and through time. High lake levels at 8.5 and 6.0 ka in the monsoon region were caused by the combined effects of low lake evaporation and high precipitation. The low lake evaporation resulted from low winter solar radiation and high summer cloud cover. Precipitation associated with the mid-latitude westerlies increased from the early to middle Holocene and maintained high lake levels throughout most of arid central Asia ca. 6 ka. The modeled evolution of lake level in arid central Asia from the mid to late Holocene was spatially heterogeneous, due to different sensitivities of the northern and southern parts of the region to seasonally-changing insolation, particularly regarding the duration of lake ice cover. The model results do not suggest that precipitation and lake evaporation changes compete with one another in forcing lake-level change, as has been hypothesized.  相似文献   

15.
We investigate the effect of changes in daily and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation on yields simulated by the CERES-Wheat model at two locations in the central Great Plains. Changes in variability were effected by adjusting parameters of the Richardson daily weather generator. Two types of changes in precipitation were created: one with both intensity and frequency changed; and another with change only in persistence. In both types mean total monthly precipitation is held constant. Changes in daily (and interannual) variability of temperature result in substantial changes in the mean and variability of simulated wheat yields. With a doubling of temperature variability, large reductions in mean yield and increases in variability of yield result primarily from crop failures due to winter kill at both locations. Reduced temperature variability has little effect. Changes in daily precipitation variability also resulted in substantial changes in mean and variability of yield. Interesting interactions of the precipitation variability changes with the contrasting base climates are found at the two locations. At one site where soil moisture is not limiting, mean yield decreased and variability of yield increased with increasing precipitation variability, whereas mean yields increased at the other location, where soil moisture is limiting. Yield changes were similar for the two different types of precipitation variability change investigated. Compared to an earlier study for the same locations wherein variability changes were effected by altering observed time series, and the focus was on interannual variability, the present results for yield changes are much more substantial. This study demonstrates the importance of taking into account change in daily (and interannual) variability of climate when analyzing the effect of climate change on crop yields.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.  相似文献   

16.
The sensitivity of climate to orbitally-related changes in solar radiation at 9000 yr BP (before present) is examined using fixed and interactive soil moisture versions of a low resolution general circulation model. In both versions of the model increased solar radiation for June–August at 9000 yr BP (compared to present) produced enhanced northern monsoons and warmer continental interiors in comparison to present whereas decreased solar radiation at 9000 yr BP in December–February produced weaker southern monsoons. The increased rainfall in the northern tropics in summer increased soil moisture and runoff at 9000 yr BP in the interactive model; in the southern hemisphere decreased rainfall in summer led to decreased soil moisture and runoff. Conditions in summer became drier (decreased soil moisture and runoff) at 9000 yr BP in the northern extratropics.The experiments showed that the magnitude (but not the sign) of model sensitivity to 9000 yr BP radiation is altered by the effects of interactive soil moisture. Decreased soil moisture (about 20%) over northern Eurasia in the interactive model led to smaller evaporative increases, greater temperature increases and greater reduction of precipitation than for the model with fixed soil moisture. Over northern tropical lands, slightly smaller temperature increases and greater evaporation and precipitation increases in the interactive model are linked to the simulation of increased soil moisture at 9000 yr BP. The differences in sensitivity between the two versions of the model over northern Eurasia are statistically significant at the 95% level whereas those for the tropics are not.Overall, the results of the simulations are generally supported by the geologic evidence for 9000 yr BP; however, the evidence lacks sufficient precision and the model resolution is too coarse for detailed model/data comparisons and for assessment of the relative accuracy of the two 9000 yr BP experiments.The computed sensitivities of temperature and soil moisture to 9000 yr BP radiation differ from those simulated under equilibrium conditions in the various general circulation model experiments for increased atmospheric concentration of CO2. In contrast to the effects of the enhanced seasonal cycle of solar radiation at 9000 yr BP, a CO2 increase causes a broad warming of both the ocean and land with little modification of land/ocean temperature difference. The experiments for 9000 yr BP indicate a clearer signal for summer drying than is obtained in the experiments for increased CO2. The results suggest that the 9000 yr BP climate may be of limited utility as an analog to future warm climates.  相似文献   

17.
Sensitivity experiments with a simple water-balance model were used to constrain the possible climatic causes of distinct Holocene patterns of lake-level variation in different regions of Europe. Lakes in S Sweden were low at 9 ka, high around 6.5 ka, low again around 4 ka and are high now. Lakes in Estonia show similar but weaker trends. Lakes in S France were highest around 9 ka, lowest around 4 ka, intermediate now. Lakes in Greece were also high around 9 ka but continued rising until 7.5 ka, then fell gradually from 5 ka with a brief high phase around 3 ka, and are low now. The model was forced with insolation anomalies deduced from orbital variations, temperature anomalies inferred from the pollen record and cloudiness anomalies derived from changes in the position of the subtropical anticyclone (inferred from reconstructed changes in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient), in order to evaluate the effects of resultant evaporation changes on catchment water balance. The resulting simulated changes in runoff (precipitation minus actual evapotranspiration) were slight, and frequently opposite to the observed trends. Larger changes in precipitation are plausible and are required to explain the data. The required precipitation increase in N Europe from 9 ka (low) to 6 ka (high) is suggested by GCM experiments to have been a consequence of interacting insolation and residual ice-sheet effects on the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The explanation of other observed changes, including the drying trend during the Holocene in S Europe, has not been provided by GCM experiments to date. Explanations may lie in changes in mesoscale circulation, sea-surface temperature patterns and the coupling between these phenomena that may not follow orbital changes in any simple way. Correspondence to: SP Harrison  相似文献   

18.
ABSTRACT

Because of the high elevation and complex topography of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the role of lakes in the climate system over the Tibetan Plateau is not well understood. For this study, we investigated the impact of lake processes on local and regional climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which includes a one-dimensional physically based lake model. The first simulation with the WRF model was performed for the TP over the 2000–2010 period, and the second was carried out during the same period but with the lakes filled with nearby land-use types. Results with the lake simulation show that the model captures the spatial and temporal patterns of annual mean precipitation and temperature well over the TP. Through comparison of the two simulations, we found that the TP lakes mainly cool the near-surface air, inducing a decreasing sensible heat flux for the entire year. Meanwhile, stronger evaporation produced by the lakes is found in the fall. During the summer, the cooling effect of the lakes decreases precipitation in the surrounding area and generates anomalous circulation patterns. In conclusion, the TP lakes cool the near-surface atmosphere most of the time, weaken the sensible heat flux, and strengthen the latent heat flux, resulting in changes in mesoscale precipitation and regional-scale circulation.  相似文献   

19.
A regional model of the atmosphere (version 4 of the NCAR mesoscale model, MM4) was used to assess whether lake-effect precipitation was a significant component of the late-Pleistocene hydrologic budgets of Lakes Lahontan and Bonneville. Control simulations for January and July of 1979 were made using MM4, and the Pleistocene highstand surface areas of the lakes were added to the model and the simulations repeated. In the January simulations, 18% of the moisture added to the modeled atmosphere by Lake Lahontan returned to the Lahontan basin as precipitation, while 32% of the water evaporated from Lake Bonneville fell as precipitation over the Bonneville basin. In the July simulations, 7% of the moisture added to the modeled atmosphere by Lake Lahontan returned to the Lahontan basin as precipitation, and 4% of the water evaporated from Lake Bonneville fell as precipitation over the Bonneville basin. An additonal January simulation was made with the lake surface areas set at onehalf their highstand extents (the average surface area 20 to 15 ka BP). Results from this simulation were similar to the simulation with the highstand lakes, indicating lake-effect precipitation could have been a significant component of the hyrologic budgets of the lakes before and during the highstand period.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation Offprint requests to: SW Hostetler  相似文献   

20.
流域水文模型是区域水资源评价的重要工具,基于普林斯顿全球气象驱动数据集和澜沧江-湄公河流域（简称：澜湄流域）八个水文站实测资料,分析了澜湄流域不同区间的水文特性,采用RCCC-WBM模型（Water Balance Model developed by Research Center for Climate Change,RCCC-WBM）开展了区间径流及水量平衡模拟研究。结果表明：1）澜湄流域不同区间气候水文差异显著,上游气温低且年内变幅大,下游气温高年内变幅小;尽管不同区间降水、径流的年内分配特征总体一致,但径流的年内分布峰值大多滞后降水峰值一个时段。2）RCCC-WBM模型能够较好地模拟出澜湄流域不同区间的径流过程,率定期和验证期的月径流模拟效率系数（Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency,NSE）均在60%以上,总量模拟误差（Relative Error,RE）也均控制在±10%以内,模型具有较好的区域适应性。3）模拟的土壤含水量都具有先衰减后增加再衰减的年内分配特征;不同季节径流和蒸发耗散的水源不同,降水是汛期水分耗散的主要来源,而土壤含水量是非汛期径流和蒸发消耗的主要水源。  相似文献   

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