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1.
Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992–2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for  55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as − 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.  相似文献   

2.
Sea level trends and inter-annual variability in the Mediterranean Sea for the period 1960–2000 is explored by comparing observations from tide gauges with sea level hindcasts from a barotropic 2D circulation model, and two full primitive equation 3D ocean circulation models, a regional one and the Mediterranean component of a global one,. In the 2D model, 50% of the sea level variance was found to result from the wind and atmospheric pressure forcing. In the 3D models, 20% of the sea level variance was explained by the steric effects. The sea level residuals at the tide gauges locations, calculated by subtraction of the 2D model output from the sea level observations are significantly correlated (r = 0.4) with the steric signals from the 3D models. After the removal of the atmospheric and the steric contributions the tide-gauge sea level records indicate a period where sea level was stable (1960–1975) and a period where sea level was rising (1975–2000) with rates in the range 1.1–1.8 mm/yr. A part of the residual trend can be explained by the contribution of local land movements (0.3 mm/yr) while its major part indicates a global signal, probably mass addition, appearing after 1975.  相似文献   

3.
Seasonal and inter-annual change in land water storage (expressed in terms of water volume change) over 27 large river basins worldwide are estimated from monthly GRACE geoids solutions computed at GFZ from February 2003 to February 2006. The largest annual water volume change is found in the Amazon basin, followed by the Parana, Ob, Orinoco, Tocantins, Niger, Congo, Ganges, Mekong, and Brahmaputra. In terms of trend over the 3-year period, positive and negative values are observed but in a number of cases computed trends are at the noise level. However significant negative trends are found in the Amazon, Ganges, Mississippi, Nile, Parana, and Zambezi basins, indicating water mass loss over that period. Positive trends (water mass gain) are marginally significant. We have computed the land water contribution to sea level change. On average over the 3-year time span, we find that the net effect is positive (net loss of water in terrestrial reservoirs), on the order of 0.19 +/− 0.06 mm/yr. If sustained over a longer time span than considered here, such a value may become comparable to the ice sheets contribution to sea level rise.  相似文献   

4.
Reconstruction of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1945–2000   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
The distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea is recovered for the period 1945–2000 by using a reduced space optimal interpolation analysis. The method involves estimating empirical orthogonal functions from satellite altimeter data spanning the period 1993–2005 that are then combined with tide gauge data to recover sea level fields over the period 1945–2000. The reconstruction technique is discussed and its robustness is checked through different tests. For the altimetric period (1993–2000) the prediction skill is quantified over the whole domain by comparing the reconstructed fields with satellite altimeter observations. For past times the skill can only be tested locally, by validating the reconstruction against independent tide gauge records. The reconstructed distribution of sea level trends for the period 1945–2000 shows a positive peak in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.5 mm yr− 1) and a negative peak of − 0.5 mm yr− 1 in a small area to the south-east of Crete. Positive trends are found nearly everywhere, being larger in the western Mediterranean (between 0.5 and 1 mm yr− 1) than in the eastern Mediterranean (between 0 and 0.5 mm yr− 1). The estimated rate of mean sea level rise for the period 1945–2000 is 0.7 ± 0.2 mm yr− 1, i.e. about a half of the rate estimated for global mean sea level. These overall results do not appear to be very sensitive to the distribution of tide gauges. The poorest results are obtained in open-sea regions with intense mesoscale variability not correlated with any tide gauge station, such as the Algerian Basin.  相似文献   

5.
Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies.  相似文献   

6.
This study investigates past sea level reconstruction (over 1950–2003) based on tide gauge records and EOF spatial patterns from different 2-D fields. In a first step, we test the influence on the reconstructed signal of the 2-D fields temporal coverage. For that purpose we use global grids of thermosteric sea level data, available over 1950–2003. Different time spans (in the range 10–50 yr) for the EOF spatial patterns, and different geographical distributions for the 1-D thermosteric sea level time series (interpolated at specific locations from the 2-D grids), are successively used to reconstruct the 54-year long thermosteric sea level signal. In each case we compare the reconstructed trend map with the reference. The simulation indicates that the longer the time span covered by the spatial EOFs, the closer to the reference the reconstructed thermosteric sea level trends. In a second step, we apply the method to reconstructing 2-D sea level data over 1950–2003, combining sparse tide gauge records available since 1950, with EOF spatial patterns from different sources: (1) thermosteric sea level grids over 1955–2003, (2) sea level grids from Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry over 1993–2003, and (3) dynamic height grids from the SODA reanalysis over 1958–2001. The reconstructed global mean sea level trend based on thermosteric EOFs (case 1) is significantly lower than the observed trend, while the interannual/decadal sea level fluctuations are well reproduced. Case 2 (Topex/Poseidon EOFs over 1993–2003) leads to a global mean sea level trend over the 54-year time interval very close to the observed trend. But the spatial trends of the reconstruction over 1950–2003 are significantly different from those obtained with thermosteric EOFs. Case 3 (SODA EOFs over 1958–2001) provides a reconstruction trend map over 1950–2003 that differs significantly from the previous two cases. We discuss possible causes for such differences. For the three cases, on the other hand, reconstructed spatial trends over 1993–2003 agree well with the regional sea level trends observed by Topex/Poseidon.  相似文献   

7.
Two Mediterranean sea level distributions spanning the last decades are examined. The first one is a reconstruction of sea level obtained by a reduced-space optimal interpolation applied to tide gauge and altimetry data. The second distribution is obtained from a 3D (baroclinic) regional circulation model. None of the two representations includes the mechanical atmospheric forcing. Results are presented for two different periods: 1993–2000 (for which altimetry data are available) and 1961–2000 (the longest period common to both distributions).The first period is examined as a test period for the model, since the reconstruction is very similar to altimetry observations. The modelled sea level is in fair agreement with the reconstruction in the Western Mediterranean and in the Aegean Sea (except in the early nineties), but in the Ionian Sea the model departs from observations. For the whole period 1961–2000 the main feature is a marked positive trend in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.8 mm yr− 1), observed both in the reconstruction and in the model. Also the distribution of positive trends in the Western Mediterranean (mean value of 1.1 mm yr− 1) and the smaller trends in the Aegean Sea (0.5 mm yr− 1) are similar in the reconstruction and in the model, despite the first implicitly accounts for sea level variations due to remote sources such as ice melting and the second does not. The interannual sea level variability associated with key regional events such as the Eastern Mediterranean Transient is apparently captured by the reconstruction but not by the model (at least in its present configuration). Hence, the reconstruction can be envisaged as a useful tool to validate further long-term numerical simulations in the region.  相似文献   

8.
The problem of correcting the tide gauge records for the vertical land motion upon which the gauges are settled has only been partially solved. At best, the analyses so far have included model corrections for one of the many processes that can affect the land stability, namely the Glacial-Isostatic Adjustment (GIA). An alternative approach is to measure (rather than to model) the rates of vertical land motion at the tide gauges by means of space geodesy. A dedicated GPS processing strategy is implemented to correct the tide gauges records, and thus to obtain a GPS-corrected set of ‘absolute’ or geocentric sea-level trends. The results show a reduced dispersion of the estimated sea-level trends after application of the GPS corrections. They reveal that the reference frame implementation is now achieved within the millimetre accuracy on a weekly basis. Regardless of the application, whether local or global, we have shown that GPS data analysis has reached the maturity to provide useful information to separate land motion from oceanic processes recorded by the tide gauges or to correct these latter. For comparison purposes, we computed the global average of sea-level change according to Douglas [Douglas, B.C., 2001. Sea level change in the era of the recording tide gauge. Int. Geophys. Ser., 75, pp. 37–64.] rules, whose estimate is 1.84 ± 0.35 mm/yr after correction for the GIA effect [Peltier, W.R., 2001. Global glacial isostatic adjustment and modern instrumental records of relative sea level history. Int. Geophys. Ser., 75, pp. 65–95.]. We obtain a value of 1.31 ± 0.30 mm/yr, a value which appears to resolve the ‘sea level enigma’ [Munk, W., 2002. Twentieth century sea level: an enigma. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 99(10), pp. 6550–6555].  相似文献   

9.
From the IPCC 4th Assessment Report published in 2007, ocean thermal expansion contributed by ～ 50% to the 3.1 mm/yr observed global mean sea level rise during the 1993–2003 decade, the remaining rate of rise being essentially explained by shrinking of land ice. Recently published results suggest that since about 2003, ocean thermal expansion change, based on the newly deployed Argo system, is showing a plateau while sea level is still rising, although at a reduced rate (～ 2.5 mm/yr). Using space gravimetry observations from GRACE, we show that recent years sea level rise can be mostly explained by an increase of the mass of the oceans. Estimating GRACE-based ice sheet mass balance and using published estimates for glaciers melting, we further show that ocean mass increase since 2003 results by about half from an enhanced contribution of the polar ice sheets – compared to the previous decade – and half from mountain glaciers melting. Taking also into account the small GRACE-based contribution from continental waters (< 0.2 mm/yr), we find a total ocean mass contribution of ～ 2 mm/yr over 2003–2008. Such a value represents ～ 80% of the altimetry-based rate of sea level rise over that period. We next estimate the steric sea level (i.e., ocean thermal expansion plus salinity effects) contribution from: (1) the difference between altimetry-based sea level and ocean mass change and (2) Argo data. Inferred steric sea level rate from (1) (～ 0.3 mm/yr over 2003–2008) agrees well with the Argo-based value also estimated here (0.37 mm/yr over 2004–2008). Furthermore, the sea level budget approach presented in this study allows us to constrain independent estimates of the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) correction applied to GRACE-based ocean and ice sheet mass changes, as well as of glaciers melting. Values for the GIA correction and glacier contribution needed to close the sea level budget and explain GRACE-based mass estimates over the recent years agree well with totally independent determinations.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper we compare sea level trends observed at a few selected tide gauges of good quality records with thermosteric (i.e., due to ocean temperature change) sea level trends over 1950–1998 using different gridded ocean temperature data sets from Levitus et al. (2000) [Levitus, S., Stephens, C., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., 2000. Yearly and Year-Season Upper Ocean Temperature Anomaly Fields, 1948–1998. U.S. Gov. Printing Office, Washington, D.C. pp. 23.], Ishii et al. (2003) [Ishii, M., Kimoto, M., Kachi, M., 2003. Historical ocean subsurface temperature analysis with error estimates, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 51–73.] and Levitus et al. (2005) [Levitus S., Antonov, J.I., Boyer, T.P., 2005. Warming of the world ocean, 1955–2003. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L02604. doi:10.1029/2004GL021592.]. When using the Levitus data, we observe very high thermosteric rates at sites located along the northeast coast of the US, north of 37°N. Such high rates are not observed with the Ishii data. Elsewhere, thermosteric rates agree reasonably well whatever the data set. Excluding the northeast US coastline sites north of 37°N, we compare tide gauge-based sea level trends with thermosteric trends and note that, in spite of a significant correlation, the latter are too small to explain the observed trends. After correcting for thermosteric sea level trends, residual (observed minus thermosteric) trends have an average value of 1.4 ± 0.5 mm/year, which should have an eustatic (i.e., due to ocean mass change) origin. This result supports the recent investigation by Miller and Douglas (2004) [Miller, L., Douglas, B.C., 2004. Mass and volume contributions to 20th century global sea level rise. Nature 428, 406–408.] which suggests that a dominant eustatic contribution is needed to explain the rate of sea level rise of the last decades observed by tide gauges, and shows that Cabanes et al. (2001) [Cabanes, C., Cazenave, A., Le Provost, C., 2001. Sea level rise during past 40 years determined from satellite and in situ observations. Science 294, 840–842.] arrived at an incorrect conclusion due to peculiarities in the gridded Levitus et al. (2000) [Levitus, S., Stephens, C., Antonov, J.I., and Boyer, T.P., 2000. Yearly and Year-Season Upper Ocean Temperature Anomaly Fields, 1948–1998. U.S. Gov. Printing Office, Washington, D.C. pp. 23.] data set.  相似文献   

11.
The sediment load delivered from the Huanghe (Yellow River) to the sea has decreased sharply to 0.15 × 109 metric tons per year (0.15 Gt/yr) between 2000 and 2005, and now represents only 14% of the widely cited estimate of 1.08 Gt/yr. The river seems to be reverting to the pristine levels characteristic of the middle Holocene, prior to human intervention. Datasets from 1950 to 2005 from four key gauging stations in the main stream reveal distinct stepwise decreases in sediment load, which are attributed to both natural and anthropogenic impacts over the past 56 yr. Completions of two reservoirs, Liujiaxia (1968) and Longyangxia (1985), in the upper reaches of the river and their joint operations have resulted in stepwise decreases in sediment load coming from the upper reaches. Effective soil conservation practices in the middle reaches since the late 1970s, combined with the operation of the Sanmenxia and Xiaolangdi reservoirs, have also caused stepwise decreases in sediment load at Huayuankou in the middle reaches, but the decrease differs from that observed in the upper reaches. Decrease in precipitation is responsible for 30% of the decrease in sediment load at Huayuankou, while the remaining 70% is ascribed to human activities in the river basin, of which soil conservation practices contribute 40% to the total decrease. Sediment retention within reservoirs accounts for 20% of the total sediment load decrease, although there was notable sediment retention within the Xiaolangdi reservoir from 2000 to 2005. The remaining 10% of the decrease in sediment load is a result of the operation of reservoirs in the upper reaches. In the lower reaches, 20% of the sediment passing Huayuankou has been lost as a result of channel deposition and water abstraction. Soil conservation practices and the operation of reservoirs have lowered the content of coarser sediment (D > 0.05 mm) at Huayuankou, and reduced channel deposition in the lower reaches. In contrast, sediment loss owing to water abstraction in the lower reaches has increased considerably as water consumption for agricultural needs has increased. Therefore, the combined effects of climate change and human activities in the upper, middle, and lower reaches have resulted in stepwise decreases in the sediment load delivered from the Huanghe to the sea. The Huanghe provides an excellent example of the altered river systems impacted by climate change and extensive human activities over the past 56 yr. Further dramatic decreases in sediment load and water discharge in the Huanghe will trigger profound geological, morphological, ecological, and biogeochemical responses in the estuary, delta, and coastal sea.  相似文献   

12.
Most of the East European Craton lacks surface relief; however, the amplitude of topography at the top of the basement exceeds 20 km, the amplitude of topography undulations at the crustal base reaches almost 30 km with an amazing amplitude of ca. 50 km in variation in the thickness of the crystalline crust, and the amplitude of topography variations at the lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary exceeds 200 km. This paper examines the relative contributions of the crust, the subcrustal lithosphere, and the dynamic support of the sublithospheric mantle to maintain surface topography, using regional seismic data on the structure of the crystalline crust and the sedimentary cover, and thermal and large-scale P- and S-wave seismic tomography data on the structure of the lithospheric mantle. For the Precambrian lithosphere, an analysis of Vp/Vs ratio at 100, 150, 200, and 250 km depths does not show any age-dependence, suggesting that while Vp/Vs ratio can be effectively used to outline the cratonic margins, it is not sensitive to compositional variations within the cratonic lithosphere.Statistical analysis of age-dependence of velocity, density, and thermal structure of the continental crust and subcrustal lithosphere in the study area (0–62E, 45–72N) allows to link lithospheric structure with the tectonic evolution of the region since the Archean. Crustal thickness decreases systematically with age from 42–44 km in regions older than 1.6 Ga to 37–40 km in the Paleozoic–Mesoproterozoic structures, and to ca. 31 km in the Meso-Cenozoic regions. However, the isostatic contribution of the crust to the surface topography of the East European Craton is almost independent of age (ca. 4.5 km) due to an interplay of age-dependent crustal and sedimentary thicknesses and lithospheric temperatures.On the contrary, the contribution of the subcrustal lithosphere to the surface topography strongly depends on the age, being slightly positive (+ 0.3 + 0.7 km) for the regions older than 1.6 Ga and negative (− 0.5–1 km) for younger structures. This leads to age-dependent variations in the residual topography, i.e. the topography which cannot be explained by the assumed thermal and density structure of the lithosphere, and which can (at least partly) originate from the dynamic component caused by the mantle flow. Positive dynamic topography at the cratonic margins, which exceeds 2 km in the Norwegian Caledonides and in the Urals, clearly links their on-going uplift with deep mantle processes. Negative residual topography beneath the Archean-Paleoproterozoic cratons (− 1–2 km) indicates either a smaller density deficit (ca. 0.9%) in their subcrustal lithosphere than predicted by global petrologic data on mantle-derived xenoliths or the presence of a strong convective downwelling in the mantle. Such mantle downflows can effectively divert heat from the lithospheric base, leading to a long-term survival of the Archean-Paleoproterozoic lithosphere.  相似文献   

13.
We have coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) offline to simulate palaeodischarge of nineteen rivers (Amazon, Congo, Danube, Ganges, Krishna, Lena, Mackenzie, Mekong, Meuse, Mississippi, Murray–Darling, Nile, Oder, Rhine, Sacramento–San Joaquin, Syr Darya, Volga, Volta, Zambezi) for three time-slices: Early Holocene (9000–8650 BP), Mid-Holocene (6200–5850 BP) and Recent (1750–2000 AD). To evaluate the model's skill in retrodicting broad changes in mean palaeodischarge we have compared the model results with palaeodischarge estimates from multi-proxy records. We have compared the general trends inferred from the proxy data with statistical differences in modelled discharge between the three periods, thereby developing a technique to assess the level of agreement between the model and proxy data. The quality of the proxy data for each basin has been classed as good, reasonable or low. Of the model runs for which the proxy data were good or reasonable, 72% were in good agreement with the proxy data, and 92% were in at least reasonable agreement. We conclude that the coupled climate-hydrological model performs well in simulating mean discharge in the time-slices studied. The discharge trends inferred from the proxy and model data closely follow latitudinal and seasonal variations in insolation over the Holocene. For a number of basins for which agreement was not good we have identified specific mechanisms which could be responsible for the discrepancy, primarily the absence of the Laurentide ice sheet in our model. In order to use the model in an operational sense within water management studies it would be useful to use a higher spatial resolution and a daily time-step.  相似文献   

14.
New paleovegetation and paleoclimatic reconstructions from the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) in northwestern Mexico are presented. This work involves climate and biome reconstruction using Plant Functional Types (PFT) assigned to pollen taxa. We used fossil pollen data from four Holocene peat bogs located at different altitudes (1500‑2000 m) at the border region of Sonora and Chihuahua at around 28° N latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.; Ortega-Rosas, C.I., Peñalba, M.C., Guiot, J. Holocene altitudinal shifts in vegetation belts and environmental changes in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Northwestern Mexico. Submitted for publication of Palaeobotany and Palynology). The closest modern pollen data come from pollen analysis across an altitudinal transect from the Sonoran Desert towards the highlands of the temperate SMO at the same latitude (Ortega-Rosas, C.I. 2003. Palinología de la Ciénega de Camilo: datos para la historia de la vegetación y el clima del Holoceno medio y superior en el NW de la Sierra Madre Occidental, Sonora, Mexico. Master Thesis, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México D.F.). An additional modern pollen dataset of 400 sites across NW Mexico and the SW United States was compiled from different sources (Davis, O.K., 1995. Climate and vegetation pattern in surface samples from arid western U.S.A.: application to Holocene climatic reconstruction. Palynology 19, 95–119, North American Pollen Database, Latin-American Pollen Database, personal data, and different scientific papers). For the biomization method (Prentice, I.C., Guiot, J., Huntley, B., Jolly, D., Cheddadi, R., 1996. Reconstructing biomes from paleoecological data: a general method and its application to European pollen data at 0 and 6 ka. Climate Dynamics 12, 185–194), we modified the pollen-PFT and PFT-biomes assignation of Thompson and Anderson (Thompson, R.S., Anderson, K.H., 2000. Biomes of western North America at 18,000; 6000 and 0 14C yr BP reconstructed from pollen and packrat midden data. Journal of Biogeography 27, 555–584) for a better representation of the modern vegetation of NW Mexico. The biome reconstruction method was validated with the modern pollen sites and applied to the fossil sites. Our results show that, during the early Holocene, a cool conifer forest extended at least down to 1700 m, while today this biome is present above 2000 m in the Chihuahua state. The Younger Dryas event was recorded in one site with cold and dry conditions. The reconstructed annual temperature for this period was 3°–6 °C colder than today, and annual precipitation was 250 mm lower than at present (900 mm/yr). The middle Holocene after 9200 cal yr BP was marked by a warming trend, reaching temperatures 2 °C warmer than today at 7000 cal yr BP, and by the installation of a warm mixed forest, the present day biome, at 1700 m elevation, while at higher elevations (1900 m) the cool conifer forest was still present. Summer precipitation was 200 mm/yr above the early Holocene values, suggesting that monsoon-like conditions strengthened since 9200 cal yr BP at this region. During the last 4000 yr, the same warm mixed forest was reconstructed below 1700 m and a conifer forest above 1700 m. A great variability of vegetation and climate patterns was recorded for the last 3000 yr particularly at high elevation sites, where warming and cooling trends would be coeval of the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, likely related to ENSO variability.  相似文献   

15.
Mean-sea-level data from coastal tide gauges in the north Indian Ocean were used to show that low-frequency variability is consistent among the stations in the basin. Statistically significant trends obtained from records longer than 40 years yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm yr− 1, with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr− 1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data. These estimates are consistent with the 1–2 mm yr− 1 global sea-level-rise estimates reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  相似文献   

16.
A digital 3D-reconstruction of the Baltic Ice Lake's (BIL) configuration during the termination of the Younger Dryas cold phase (ca. 11 700 cal. yr BP) was compiled using a combined bathymetric–topographic Digital Terrain Model (DTM), Scandinavian ice sheet limits, Baltic Sea Holocene bottom sediment thickness information, and a paleoshoreline database maintained at the Lund University. The bathymetric–topographic DTM, assembled from publicly available data sets, has a resolution of 500 × 500 m on Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection allowing area and volume calculations of the BIL to be made with an unprecedented accuracy. When the damming Scandinavian ice sheet margin eventually retreated north of Mount Billingen, the high point in terrain of Southern central Sweden bordering to lower terrain further to the north, the BIL was catastrophically drained resulting in a 25 m drop of the lake level. With our digital reconstruction, we estimate that approximately 7800 km3 of water drained during this event and that the ice dammed lake area was reduced by ca. 18%. Building on previous results suggesting drainage over 1 to 2 years, our lake volume calculations imply that the freshwater flux to the contemporaneous sea in the west was between about 0.12 and 0.25 Sv. The BIL reconstruction provides new detailed information on the paleogeography in the area of southern Scandinavia, both before and after the drainage event, with implications for interpretations of geological records concerning the post-glacial environmental development.  相似文献   

17.
Uranium series dating has been carried out on secondary uranyl silicate minerals formed during sub-glacial and post-glacial weathering of Proterozoic uraninite ores in south west Finland. The samples were obtained from two sites adjacent to the Salpauselkä III ice marginal formation and cover a range of depths, from the surface to more than 60 m. Measured ages fall into three distinct groups, 70–100 ka, 28–36 ka and < 2500 yr. The youngest set is associated with surface exposures and the crystals display clear evidence of re-working. The most likely trigger for uranium release at depths below the surface weathering zone is intrusion of oxidising glacial melt water. The latter is often characterised by very high discharge rates along channels, which close once the overpressure generated at the ice margin is released. There is excellent correspondence between the two Finnish sites and published data for similar deposits over a large area of southern and central Sweden. None of the seventy samples analysed gave a U–Th age between 40 and 70 ka; a second hiatus is apparent at 20 ka, coinciding with the Last Glacial Maximum. Thus, the process responsible for uranyl silicate formation was halted for significant periods, owing to a change in geochemical conditions or the hydrogeological regime. These data support the presence of interstadial conditions during the Early and Middle Weichselian since in the absence of major climatic perturbations the uranium phases at depth are stable. When viewed in conjunction with proxy data from mammoth remains it would appear that the region was ice-free prior to the Last Glacial Maximum.  相似文献   

18.
In response to climatic warming, eustatic sea level has been predicted to rise by about 50 cm in the next century. While feedbacks between vegetation growth and sediment deposition tend to allow marshes to maintain their morphology under a constant rate of sea level rise, recent observations of marsh deterioration suggest that changes in the rate of sea level rise may induce loss of economically and ecologically important marshland. We have developed a three dimensional model of tidal marsh evolution that couples vegetation growth and sediment transport processes including bed accretion and wave erosion. We use the model to simulate the response of marshes and tidal flats along the Fraser River Delta, British Columbia to 100 yr forecasts of sea level change. Under low sea level-rise scenarios, the delta and its marshes prograde slightly, consistent with historical measurements. While accretionary processes greatly mediate the response to increased rates of sea level rise, vegetation zones transgress landward under median and high sea level rise rate scenarios. In these scenarios, low marsh erosion and constriction of high marsh vegetation against a dyke at its landward edge result in a 15–35% loss of marshland in the next century. Several important behavioral changes take place after 2050, suggesting that predictions based on field observations and short term model experiments may not adequately characterize (and sometimes underestimate) long-term change. In particular, the replacement of highly productive high marsh vegetation by less productive low marsh vegetation results in continued reduction of the system's total biomass productivity, even as the rate of loss of vegetated area begins to decline.  相似文献   

19.
The growth of two high-elevation inland lakes (at 4600 m) was analyzed using satellite imagery (2000–2005) and data were collected over the last decade (1997–2006) at a plateau meteorological station (at 4820 m) and stream gauging data from a station (at 4250 m) in central Tibet. We examined the lake water balance responses to meteorological and hydrological variables. The results show that the lake areas greatly expanded by a maximum of 27.1% (or 43.7 km2) between 1998 and 2005. This expansion appears to be associated with an increase in annual precipitation of 51.0 mm (12.6%), mean annual and winter mean temperature increases of 0.41 °C and 0.71 °C, and an annual runoff increase of 20% during the last decade. The changes point to an abrupt increase in the annual precipitation, mean temperature and runoff occurring in 1996, 1998 and 1997, respectively, and a decrease in the annual pan evaporation that happened in 1996. The timing of lake growth corresponds closely with abrupt increases in the annual precipitation and runoff and with the decrease in the annual evaporation since the mid-1990s. This study indicates a strong positive water balance in these permafrost highland lakes, and provides further evidence of lake growth as a proxy indicator of climate variability and change.  相似文献   

20.
Climatic changes of the 20th century have altered the water cycle in the Andean basins of central Argentina. The most visible change is seen in the mountain glaciers, with loss of part of their mass due to decreasing thickness and a substantial recession in the last 100 years. This paper briefly describes the results of glacier mass balance research since 1979 in the Piloto Glacier at the Cajón del Rubio, in the headwaters of Las Cuevas River, presenting new results for the period 1997–2003. Very large interannual variability of net annual specific balance is evident, due largely to variations in winter snow accumulation, with a maximum net annual value of + 151 cm w.e. and a minimum value of - 230 cm w.e. Wet El Niño years are normally associated with positive net annual balances, while dry La Niña years generally result in negative balances. Within the 24-year period, 67% of the years show negative net annual specific balances, with a cumulative mass balance loss of - 10.50 m water equivalent (w.e.). Except for exceptions normally related to El Niño events, a general decreasing trend of winter snow accumulation is evident in the record, particularly after 1992, which has a strong effect in the overall negative mass balance values. The glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River runoff is analysed based on the Punta de Vacas River gauge station for a hypothetical year without snow precipitation (YWSP), when the snowmelt component is zero. Extremely dry years similar to a YWSP have occurred in 1968–1969, 1969–1970 and 1996–1997. The Punta de Vacas gauge station is located 62 km downstream from Piloto Glacier, and the basin contains 3.0% of uncovered glacier ice and 3.7% of debris-covered ice. The total glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River discharge is calculated as 82 ± 8% during extremely dry years. If glacier wastage continues at the present trend as observed during the last 2 decades, it will severely affect the water resources in the arid central Andes of Argentina.  相似文献   

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