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1.
A group of three earthquakes in 2000 June in SW Iceland included the two largest earthquakes in Iceland in the past 30 yr. Previously, temporal changes in shear-wave splitting had not been recognized before these earthquakes as there were too few small earthquakes to provide adequate shear-wave data, and they were not stress forecast, even with hindsight. These large earthquakes were subject to a special investigation by the European Community funded PREPARED Project during which the seismic catalogue was extended to include smaller magnitude earthquakes. This more detailed data set, together with a semi-automatic programme for measuring the parameters of shear-wave splitting greatly increased the number of time-delay measurements.
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time.  相似文献   

2.
Most seismic hazard estimations are based on the assumption of a Poisson process for earthquake occurrence, even though both observations and models indicate a departure of real seismic sequences from this simplistic assumption. Instrumental earthquake catalogues show earthquake clustering on regional scales while the elastic rebound theory predicts a periodic recurrence of characteristic earthquakes on longer timescales for individual events. Recent implementations of time-dependent hazard calculations in California and Japan are based on quasi-periodic recurrences of fault ruptures according to renewal models such as the Brownian Passage Time model. However, these renewal models neglect earthquake interactions and the dependence on the stressing history which might destroy any regularity of earthquake recurrences in reality. To explore this, we investigate the (coupled) stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound hypothesis. In particular, we are interested in the time-variability of the occurrence of large earthquakes and its sensitivity to the occurrence of Gutenberg–Richter type earthquake activity and fault interactions. Our results show that in general large earthquakes occur quasi-periodically in the model: the occurrence probability of large earthquakes is strongly decreased shortly after a strong event and becomes constant on longer timescales. Although possible stress-interaction between adjacent fault zones does not affect the recurrence time distributions in each zone significantly, it leads to a temporal clustering of events on larger regional scales. The non-random characteristics, especially the quasi-periodic behaviour of large earthquakes, are even more pronounced if stress changes due to small earthquakes are less important. The recurrence-time distribution for the largest events is characterized by a coefficient of variation from 0.6 to 0.84 depending on the relative importance of small earthquakes.  相似文献   

3.
Summary. The MARNET telemetered seismic network spanning the Marmara Sea supplements the ISK network of conventional seismic stations and increases the resolution for monitoring the seismicity in Western Turkey. Seismicity maps for the period 1976 to 1981 display pronounced swarm-type activity where small earthquakes cluster in the same locality. Three types of seismic activity can be identified and related to present-day tectonic deformation: normal earthquake episodes associated with the main line of the North Anatolian Fault; continuous swarm activity, but with marked fluctuations and bursts of activity in the tensional regime south of a line from Izmir to Adapazari; and continuous activity with only minor fluctuations within the Marmara region as it is sheared by the westward movement of the main Anatolian plate.  相似文献   

4.
The frequency–energy distribution of global seismicity is studied using broad-band radiated energy of shallow earthquakes from January 1987 to December 1994 estimated by NEIC. Rank-ordering statistics are applied to enhance the resolution in retrieving the power-law distribution with undersampled data, namely a few tens of events. Seen in the perspective of broad-band radiated energy with higher resolution, a single (Gutenberg–Richter-type) power-law distribution can fit the data. For earthquakes with energy larger than 1014 J, the number N of events with energy E depends on E via N∝E −B , with the scaling constant B = 0.64 ± 0.04, corresponding to b = 0.95 ± 0.06. This relation is different from that of scalar seismic moment, which shows a transition of power-law distributions between small and large earthquakes. To demonstrate such a difference we use the same set of earthquakes with both broad-band energy estimation and CMT estimation. It is found that for the same data set, the energy distribution and the moment distribution show different patterns. The moment distribution has a clear kink between small and large earthquakes, while the energy distribution shows a single power law with no convincing kink between small and large earthquakes. To investigate the effect of different focal mechanisms and different seismic regions, events with strike-slip mechanisms and events within the Japan–Kuril region are considered. For these subsets of events, a similar pattern exists, in which the moment distribution shows a kink between small and large earthquakes, while the energy distribution shows a single power law.  相似文献   

5.
In view of increasing damage due to earthquakes, and the current problems of earthquake prediction, real-time warning of strong ground motion is attracting more interest. In principle, it allows short-term warning of earthquakes while they are occurring. With warning times of up to tens of seconds it is possible to send alerts to potential areas of strong shaking before the arrival of the seismic waves and to mitigate the damage, but only if the seismic source parameters are determined rapidly. The major problem of an early-warning system is the real-time estimation of the earthquake's size.
We investigated digitized strong-motion accelerograms from 244 earthquakes that occurred in North and Central America between 1940 and 1986 to find out whether their initial portions reflected the size of the ongoing earthquake. Applying conventional methods of time-series analyses we calculate appropriate signal parameters and describe their uncertainties in relation to the magnitude and epicentral distance. The study reveals that the magnitude of an earthquake can be predicted from the first second of a single accelerogram within ±1.36 magnitude units. The uncertainty can be reduced to about ±0.5 magnitude units if a larger number (≥8) of accelerograms are available, which requires a dense network of seismic stations in areas of high seismic risk.  相似文献   

6.
Summary. A seismic study of the Lesser Antilles arc has been carried out, first for the period 1950–1978, for which we can use local seismic networks to draw maps of instrumental seismicity, then for the period 1530–1950, for which we have catalogues of felt earthquakes. The striking feature of the spatial distribution of foci is the cluster of epicentres in the northern half of the arc; all large earthquakes ( M > 7.5) are located north of 14° latitude. Seismicity cross-sections through the arc show a variable dipping subduction zone along the arc; the deep seismic zone is steeper in the centre of the arc than on the extremity.
The time-space diagram for historical seismicity, and the evidence of a seismic gap at the east of Guadeloupe lead us to consider the northern half arc as a likely site for a large earthquake in the near future.
The seismic slip rate calculated from all major earthquakes since 1530 is of much greater value than that obtained from recent plate tectonic models, suggesting that the recurrence rate of earthquakes is more than many hundreds of years with a possible aseismic creep.  相似文献   

7.
An isolated swarm of small earthquakes occurred in 1992, near Dongfang on Hainan Island, southern China. The Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau of China, monitored the swarm with five DCS-302 digital accelerometers for three months from 1992 June 1. 18 earthquakes, with magnitudes M L ranging from 1.8 to 3.6, were well located by five stations, and shear-wave splitting varying azimuthally was analysed on 27 seismic records from these events. The mean polarization azimuth of the faster shear wave was WNW. Time delays between the split shear waves at two stations varied with time and space. The time delays at one station fell abruptly after earthquakes of magnitudes 3.1 and 3.6, but did not change significantly at the second station. This behaviour is consistent with the delay-time changes being caused by changes in the aspect ratio of vertical liquid-filled (EDA) cracks. Thus, the variation in shear-wave-splitting time delay could be due to changes in crustal stress related to nearby small-magnitude earthquake activity. The connection between earthquake activity and crustal stress variation measured by shear-wave splitting leaves the door open for possible observations of crustal stress transients related to the onset of an earthquake; however, our data cannot be considered as definite evidence for such precursors.  相似文献   

8.
Summary . The great Etorofu earthquake of 1958 November 6 is characterized by a relatively small aftershock area (70 × 150 km2) and an extremely large felt area. The felt area is more extensive than those of any other large earthquakes which have occurred in the southern Kurile to northern Japan arc since the beginning of this century. The mechanism is a pure thrust fault typical of most great earthquakes in island arcs. A body wave magnitude of m b = 8.2 is obtained at periods around 6 s using more than 40 observations, although an m b value of only 7.6–7.7 would be expected empirically from the observed surface wave magnitude of M s= 8.1–8.2. Both an unusually large felt area and a high m b indicate a dominance of high-frequency components in the seismic waves. A seismic moment of M o= 4.4 × 1028 dyne cm is determined from long-period surface waves from which a high stress drop of Δσ = 78 bar is obtained using a relatively small aftershock area. Historic data indicate an anomalously long time interval between the 1958 event and any earlier great earthquake from the same source region. The observed high stress drop can be interpreted as a consequence of this long intervening period through which strain built up. The dominance of the high-frequency seismic waves can then be interpreted as a result of this high stress drop. Stress drops, seismic wave spectra and recurrence intervals of great earthquakes are in this way closely related to each other. The 1958 event may represent a high strength extreme of stochastic fluctuation of fracture strength relevant to great earthquakes.  相似文献   

9.
Summary. The ScSp wave converted from the ScS wave at the boundary between the descending lithospheric slab and the mantle above it was clearly observed from a nearby deep earthquake with magnitude 7.7 at some stations of the seismic network of Tohoku University which covers the Tohoku District, the northeastern part of Honshu, Japan. By applying the three-dimensional seismic-ray tracing method, the location of this boundary was determined from the difference in arrival time between the ScS and ScSp waves. The result shows that the upper boundary of the descending slab lies exactly on the upper plane of the double-planed deep seismic zone found in the Northeastern Japan Arc.
There is an additional evidence that the boundary is located on the upper plane of the double-planed deep seismic zone. The hypocentre distribution of intermediate-depth earthquakes located by the small-scale seismic-array observation is extremely different from that obtained by the relatively large-scale seismic network. The discrepancy in the distribution of hypocentres of the same earthquake independently located is well explained by the inclined lithospheric slab model derived from the difference in arrival time between the ScS and ScSp waves.
The earthquakes with reverse faulting or with down-dip compressional stresses occur at the upper boundary of the descending slab. Within the descending slab, the earthquakes with down-dip extensional stresses also occur in a very narrow zone from 30 to 40 km below the dipping boundary in the depth range from 50 to about 200 km, and these shocks form the lower plane of the double-planed deep seismic zone.  相似文献   

10.
中国地震发生频率与烈度的空间分布   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  
考虑不同区域地震记录具有时间长度不等的特点,对“震中分布分震级网格点密集值”算法进行改进,结合 GIS 的空间分析方法将地震目录中的点数据空间化为能反映地震发生频率的栅格数据;依据地震震级和烈度的关 系以及地震烈度在空间上的椭圆衰减模型,选择逼近和近似的计算手段,并结合空间插值方法得到中国地震烈度 分布的栅格图。从地震频率分布结果上看,大致以宁夏、甘肃、四川和云南为界,中国西部地区3 级以上的地震发生 频率要高于东部地区;从地震烈度分布结果看,中国甘肃、陕西、宁夏、山西、河北、四川、云南等位于地震带内的区 域在发生地震时产生的烈度较高。  相似文献   

11.
The purpose of this study is to develop a technique to discriminate artificial explosions from local small earthquakes ( M ≤ 4.0) in the time–frequency domain. In order to obtain spectral features of artificial explosions and earthquakes, 3-D spectrograms (frequency, time and amplitude) have been used. They represent a useful tool for studying the frequency content of entire seismic waveforms observed at local and regional distances (Kim, Simpson & Richards 1994). P and S(L g ) waves from quarry blasts show that the frequency content associated with the dominant amplitude appears above 10  Hz and Rg phases are observed at close distances. P and S(L g ) waves from the Tongosan earthquake have strong amplitudes below 10  Hz. For the Munkyong earthquake, however, a broader frequency content up to 20  Hz is found.
  For discrimination between small earthquakes and explosions, Pg/L g spectral ratios are used below 10  Hz, and through spectrogram analysis we can see different frequency contents of explosions and earthquakes. Unfortunately, because explosion data recorded at KSRS array are digitized at 20  sps, we cannot avoid analysing below 10  Hz because of the Nyquist frequency. In order to select time windows, the group velocity was computed using multiple-filter analysis (MFA), and free-surface effects have been removed from all three-component data in order to improve data quality. Using FFT, a log-average spectral amplitude is calculated over seven frequency bands: 0.5 to 3, 2 to 4, 3 to 5, 4 to 6, 5 to 7, 6 to 8 and 8 to 10  Hz. The best separation between explosions and earthquakes is observed from 6 to 8  Hz. In this frequency band we can separate explosions with log ( Pg/L g ) above −0.5, except EXP1 recorded at SIHY1-1, and earthquakes below −0.5, except the Munkyong earthquake record at station KMH.  相似文献   

12.
The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.  相似文献   

13.
b
Current earthquake prediction experiments investigate behaviour before potentially large earthquakes. There is some evidence that comparatively small typical events in isolated swarms of earthquakes may have precursory behaviour similar to that before much larger earthquakes in more complicated areas of seismicity. Such typical events in isolated swarms frequently recur with similar magnitudes in similar locations with repetition times sometimes as little as a few days. It is argued that monitoring such typical events in isolated swarms could be an effective way to gain experience of precursory activity, and might well be a good guide for investigations of precursors to large earthquakes.  相似文献   

14.
Geostatistics offers various techniques of estimation and simulation that have been satisfactorily applied in solving geological problems. In this sense, conditional geostatistical simulation is applied to calculate the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with a lower than or equal magnitude to one determined during a seismic series. It is possible to calculate the energy of the next most probable earthquake from a specific time, given knowledge of the structure existing among earthquakes occurring prior to a specific moment.  相似文献   

15.
We investigated the detection capability of global earthquakes immediately after the occurrence of a large earthquake. We stacked global earthquake sequences after occurrences of large earthquakes obtained from the Harvard centroid-moment tensor catalogue, and applied a statistical model that represents an observed magnitude–frequency distribution of earthquakes to the stacked sequence. The temporal variation in model parameters, which corresponds to the detection capability of earthquakes, was estimated using a Bayesian approach. We found that the detection capability of global earthquakes is lower than normal for several hours after the occurrence of large earthquakes; for instance, the duration of lowered detection capability of global earthquakes after the occurrence of an earthquake with a magnitude of seven or larger is estimated to be approximately 12 hr.  相似文献   

16.
Summary. Moment tensor inversion methods can be applied with success in the determination of source properties of simple earthquakes. However, these methods utilize the assumption of a point source, which is inadequate for modelling many complicated, shallow earthquakes. For complex earthquakes, an inversion using finite faulting models is desirable but the number of parameters involved requires that a good starting model be found or that independent constraints be placed on some of the parameters. A method is presented for low-pass filtering both the data and Green's functions, passing only signals with wavelengths greater than the dimension of the entire fault. The filter tends to smooth complications in the waveforms and allows application of the point source moment tensor inversion. This method is applied to body waves from the 1978 Thessaloniki, Greece, earthquake, the 1971 San Fernando earthquake and to a multiple-point source synthetic model of the San Fernando event. For the Thessaloniki event, although a multiple-source mechanism has been suggested, inversion results before and after filtering were essentially identical, indicating that a point source mechanism is sufficient in modelling the long-period, teleseismic body waves. In the case of the San Fernando earthquake, the point source Green's functions were incapable of simultaneously modelling the P - and SH -waves. Inversion of P -waves alone resulted in extreme parameter resolution problems, but allowed constraint in one axis of the moment tensor and suggested an overall source time function. Inversion of a synthetic San Fernando data set yielded similar results, but allowed an investigation of the shortcomings of the method under controlled circumstances. Although the results may require substantial interpretation, the method presented represents a simple first step in the analysis of complex earthquakes.  相似文献   

17.
This is the second paper of a series of two concerning strong ground motion in SW Iberia due to earthquakes originating from the adjacent Atlantic area. The aim of this paper is to use the velocity model that was proposed and validated in the companion paper for seismic intensity modelling of the 1969 ( M s= 8.0) and 1755 ( M = 8.5–8.7) earthquakes.
First, we propose a regression to convert simulated values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) into Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) in SW Iberia, and using this regression, we build synthetic isoseismal maps for a large ( M s= 8.0) earthquake that occurred in 1969. Based on information on the seismic source provided by various authors, we show that the velocity model effectively reproduces macroseismic observations in the whole region. We also confirm that seismic intensity distribution is very sensitive to a small number of source parameters: rupture directivity, fault strike and fault dimensions. Then, we extrapolate the method to the case of the great ( M = 8.5–8.7) 1755 earthquake, for a series of hypotheses recently proposed by three authors about the location of the epicentral region. The model involving a subduction-related rupture in the Gulf of Cádiz results in excessive ground motion in northern Morocco, suggesting that the source of the 1755 earthquake should be located further west. A rupture along the western coast of Portugal, compatible with an activation of the passive western Iberian margin, would imply a relatively low average slip, which, alone, would could not account for the large tsunami observed in the whole northern Atlantic ocean. A seismic source located below the Gorringe Bank seems the most likely since it is more efficient in reproducing the distribution of high intensities in SW Iberia due to the 1755 earthquake.  相似文献   

18.
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19.
Seismic series can be taken as examples of correlated unstationary sets of time-stochastic sequences. We investigate the possibility of estimating what is most probable to occur subsequently, if we know the events that have occurred up to a given moment.
The stochastic methods can be used with data of the seismic series, irrespective of their genesis and origin. Using three stochastic methods, namely (1) simulating the likelihood of occurrence by conditional geostatistical simulation; (2) developing a stochastic analysis of the energy release by means of energy packages; and (3) calculating the occurrence time of the most probable next earthquake, we were able to simulate the occurrence of earthquakes that took place during the Alborán Sea seismic series (1997–1998).
We conclude that it is possible to set limits on the time of occurrence and energy release, understood as the magnitude of the most probable earthquake, during the development of a seismic sequence and prior to the actual occurrence of the earthquake.  相似文献   

20.
Summary. The frequency of earthquake occurrence in a given region can be formulated as

where n ( t ) is the number of earthquakes per unit time, and r, k and α are constants. Empirically determined values of α range from 0.67 to 1.0. This is a generalization of the modified Omori formula for aftershocks, the latter being an approximation of the former for n > k. This formula adequately describes the initial increasing and later decreasing activity of earthquakes during the Matsushiro and Wakayama swarms as well as aftershocks of large earthquakes.
When a random external force is added to this system as a driving mechanism, the equation above becomes

where v = l n ( n/k ) and R ( t ) is the random Gaussian noise. Repetitive seismic patterns with bursts, which are commonly observed in real earthquake sequences, are predicted from this formulation under stationary conditions. These formulations appear to be quite promising in helping to understand macroscopic features of the microearthquake activity.  相似文献   

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