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1.
不同机器学习预测滑坡易发性的建模过程及其不确定性有所差异, 另外如何有效识别滑坡易发性的主控因子意义重大。针对上述问题, 以支持向量机(support vector machine, 简称SVM)和随机森林(random forest, 简称RF)为例探讨了基于机器学习的滑坡易发性预测及其不确定性, 创新地提出了"权重均值法"来综合计算出更准确的滑坡主控因子。首先获取陕西省延长县滑坡编录和10类基础环境因子, 将因子频率比值作为SVM和RF的输入变量; 再将滑坡与随机选择的非滑坡样本划分为训练集和测试集, 用训练好的机器学习预测出滑坡易发性并制图; 最后用受试者工作曲线、均值和标准差等来评估建模不确定性, 并计算滑坡主控因子。结果表明: ①机器学习能有效预测出区域滑坡易发性, RF预测的滑坡易发性精度高于SVM, 而其不确定性低于SVM, 但两者的易发性分布规律整体相似; ②权重均值法计算出延长县滑坡主控因子依次是坡度、高程和岩性。实例分析和文献综述显示RF模型相较于其他机器学习模型属于可靠性较高的易发性模型。   相似文献   

2.
A comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility maps are prerequisite for developing and implementing landslide mitigation strategies. Landslide susceptibility maps for the landslides prone regions in northern Pakistan are rarely available. The Hunza-Nagar valley in northern Pakistan is known for its frequent and devastating landslides. In this paper, we have developed a landslide inventory map for Hunza-Nagar valley by using the visual interpretation of the SPOT-5 satellite imagery and mapped a total of 172 landslides. The landslide inventory was subsequently divided into modelling and validation data sets. For the development of landslide susceptibility map seven discrete landslide causative factors were correlated with the landslide inventory map using weight of evidence and frequency ratio statistical models. Four different models of conditional independence were used for the selection of landslide causative factors. The produced landslides susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and area under curves criteria. The prediction power of the models was also validated with the prediction rate curve. The validation results shows that the success rate curves of the weight of evidence and the frequency models are 82% and 79%, respectively. The prediction accuracy results obtained from this study are 84% for weight of evidence model and 80% for the frequency ratio model. Finally, the landslide susceptibility index maps were classified into five different varying susceptibility zones. The validation and prediction result indicates that the weight of evidence and frequency ratio model are reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map, which may be helpful for landslides management strategies.  相似文献   

3.
Newmark位移模型是研究地震滑坡易发性的经典模型,机器学习方法支持向量机模型也越来越多的应用到滑坡易发性评估研究。本文将Newmark位移模型与支持向量机模型相结合,建立基于物理机理的地震滑坡易发性评估模型并应用于2008年汶川地震重灾区汶川县。从震后遥感影像目视解译出汶川县1900处地震诱发滑坡,并将其随机划分为70%的训练数据集和30%的验证数据集。选择地形起伏度、坡度、地形曲率、与构造断裂带距离、与水系距离、与道路距离6个因子与Newmark位移值共同作为地震滑坡易发性影响因素。利用ROC曲线和模型不确定性等指标对模型结果进行评估,并与二元统计模型频率比和多元统计模型Logistic回归的结果进行对比。结果表明:与频率比和Logistic回归模型相比,支持向量机模型的正确率最高,训练集和验证集ROC曲线下的面积分别为0.876和0.851。将模型应用于绘制汶川县地震滑坡易发性图,结果显示滑坡易发性图与实际的滑坡点位分布一致性较高,有80.4%的滑坡位于极高和高易发区。这说明支持向量机与Newmark位移方法结合建立的地震滑坡易发性评估模型有较高的预测价值,可以为滑坡风险评估和管理提供依据。  相似文献   

4.
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC)is a framework of regional connectivity,which will not only benefit China and Pakistan but will have positive impact on Iran,Afghanistan,India,Central Asian Republic,and the region.The surrounding area in CPEC is prone to frequent disruption by geological hazards mainly landslides in northern Pakistan.Comprehensive landslide inventory and susceptibility assessment are rarely available to utilize for landslide mitigation strategies.This study aims to utilize the high-resolution satellite images to develop a comprehensive landslide inventory and subsequently develop landslide susceptibility maps using multiple techniques.The very high-resolution(VHR)satellite images are utilized to develop a landslide inventory using the visual image classification techniques,historic records and field observations.A total of 1632 landslides are mapped in the area.Four statistical models i.e.,frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression were used for landslide susceptibility modeling by comparing the landslide inventory with the topographic parameters,geological features,drainage and road network.The developed landslides susceptibility maps were verified using the area under curve(AUC)method.The prediction power of the model was assessed by the prediction rate curve.The success rate curves show 93%,92.8%,92.7%and 87.4%accuracy of susceptibility maps for frequency ratio,artificial neural network,weights of evidence and logistic regression,respectively.The developed landslide inventory and susceptibility maps can be used for land use planning and landslide mitigation strategies.  相似文献   

5.
Roads constructed in fragile Siwaliks are prone to large number of instabilities. Bhalubang–Shiwapur section of Mahendra Highway lying in Western Nepal is one of them. To understand the landslide causative factor and to predict future occurrence of the landslides, landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) of this region was carried out using frequency ratio(FR) and weights-of-evidence(W of E) models. These models are easy to apply and give good results. For this, landslide inventory map of the area was prepared based on the aerial photo interpretation, from previously published/unpublished reposts, and detailed field survey using GPS. About 332 landslides were identified and mapped, among which 226(70%) were randomly selected for model training and the remaining 106(30%) were used for validation purpose. A spatial database was constructed from topographic, geological, and land cover maps. The reclassified maps based on the weight values of frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence were applied to get final susceptibility maps. The resultant landslide susceptibility maps were verified andcompared with the training data, as well as with the validation data. From the analysis, it is seen that both the models were equally capable of predicting landslide susceptibility of the region(W of E model(success rate = 83.39%, prediction rate = 79.59%); FR model(success rate = 83.31%, prediction rate = 78.58%)). In addition, it was observed that the distance from highway and lithology, followed by distance from drainage, slope curvature, and slope gradient played major role in the formation of landsides. The landslide susceptibility maps thus produced can serve as basic tools for planners and engineers to carry out further development works in this landslide prone area.  相似文献   

6.
利用机器学习模型进行滑坡易发性评价时, 不同的超参数设置往往会导致评价结果的不同。采用贝叶斯算法对4种常见机器学习模型(逻辑回归LR、支持向量机SVM、人工神经网络ANN和随机森林RF)的超参数进行了优化, 探索了该算法对滑坡易发性机器学习模型的优化效果。以湘中地区4县(安化县、新华县、桃江县和桃源县)滑坡易发性评价为例说明该算法的可行性与适用性。基于滑坡历史编录, 确定研究区内1 017个滑坡点, 并选定15个滑坡影响因子, 以此构建滑坡易发性模型的训练集和测试集。利用贝叶斯优化算法对4种机器学习模型的主要超参数进行了优化, 依据优化后的超参数建立了4种优化模型, 并使用AUC值等指标来比较其预测能力。结果表明: 经超参数优化后的4种机器学习模型预测性能均有所提高, 且基于贝叶斯优化的随机森林模型表现最好。   相似文献   

7.
Rudraprayag in Garhwal Himalayan division is one of the most vulnerable districts to landslides in India. Heavy rainfall, steep slope and developmental activities are important factors for the occurrence of landslides in the district. Therefore, specific assessment of landslide susceptibility and its accuracy at regional level is essential for disaster management and proper land use planning. The article evaluates effectiveness of frequency ratio, fuzzy logic and logistic regression models for assessing landslide susceptibility in Rudraprayag district of Uttarakhand state, India. A landslide inventory map was prepared and verified by field data. Fourteen landslide parameters and generated inventory map were utilized to prepare landslide susceptibility maps through frequency ratio, fuzzy logic and logistic regression models. Landslide susceptibility maps generated through these models were classified into very high, high, medium, low and very low categories using natural breaks classification. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, spatially agreed area approach and seed cell area index (SCAI) method were used to validate the landslide models. Validation results revealed that fuzzy logic model was found to be more effective in assessing landslide susceptibility in the study area. The landslide susceptibility map generated through fuzzy logic model can be best utilized for landslide disaster management and effective land use planning.  相似文献   

8.
Landslide database construction is one of the most crucial stages of the landslide susceptibility mapping studies. Although there are many techniques for preparing landslide database in the literature, representative data selection from huge data sets is a challenging, and, to some extent, a subjective task. Thus, in order to produce reliable landslide susceptibility maps, data-driven, objective and representative database construction is a very important stage for these maps. This study mainly focuses on a landslide database construction task. In this study, it was aimed at building a representative landslide database extraction approach by using Chebyshev theorem to evaluate landslide susceptibility in a landslide prone area in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey. The study area was divided into two different parts such as training (Basin 1) and testing areas (Basin 2). A total of nine parameters such as topographical elevation, slope, aspect, planar and profile curvatures, stream power index, distance to drainage, normalized difference vegetation index and topographical wetness index were used in the study. Next, frequency distributions of the considered parameters in both landslide and nonlandslide areas were extracted using different sampling strategies, and a total of nine different landslide databases were obtained. Of these, eight databases were gathered by the methodology proposed by this study based on different standard deviations and algebraic multiplication of raster parameter maps. To evaluate landslide susceptibility, Artificial Neural Network method was used in the study area considering the different landslide and nonlandslide data. Finally, to assess the performances of the so-produced landslide susceptibility maps based on nine data sets, Area Under Curve (AUC) approach was implemented both in Basin 1 and Basin 2. The best performances (the greatest AUC values) were gathered by the landslide susceptibility map produced by two standard deviation database extracted by the Chebyshev theorem, as 0.873 and 0.761, respectively. Results revealed that the methodology proposed by this study is a powerful and objective approach in landslide susceptibility mapping.  相似文献   

9.
不同的易发性评价模型可以得到有差异的滑坡空间预测结果,选取最优模型甚至综合各模型的优势是提高易发性评价精度的有效方法。为检验模型融合思路的有效性,以鄂西地区五峰县渔洋关镇为研究区,提取坡度、地层、断层、河流、公路等7个滑坡成因条件,分别采用信息量模型、证据权模型和频率比模型进行滑坡易发性评价;并将3种模型分别进行归一化、主成分分析(PCA,Principal component analysis)和优势融合,得到了6幅易发性分区图。结果表明:优势耦合模型精度最高(90.3%),频率比模型次之(89.7%),归一化融合模型和PCA融合模型分别为89.3%和89.1%,以上4种结果的精度均高于证据权模型(87.7%)和信息量模型(87.6%);6幅预测图对应的评价结论与历史滑坡空间分布的实际情况相符。空间一致性对比结论表明,主成分融合模型与优势耦合模型的同格率高达68%,其预测结果避免了单个模型预测结论带来的偶然性和片面性,说明多模型融合方法与优势耦合模型在提高滑坡易发性预测精度上是可行性的,该思路对其他地区滑坡灾害易发性评价具有借鉴意义。   相似文献   

10.
Landslide susceptibility maps(LSMs) play a vital role in assisting land use planning and risk mitigation. This study aims to optimize causative factors using logistic regression(LR) and an artificial neural network(ANN) to produce a LSM. The LSM is produced with 11 causative factors and then optimized using forward-stepwise LR(FSLR), ANN, and their combination(FSLR-ANN) until eight causative factors were found for each method. The ANN method produced superior validation results compared with LR. The ROC values for the training data set ranges between 0.8 and 0.9. On the other hand, validation with the percentage of landslide fall into LSM class high and very high, ANN method was higher(92.59%) than LR(82.12%). FSLR-ANN with nine causative factors gave the best validation results with respect to area under curve(AUC) values, and validation with the percentage of landslide fall into LSM class high and very high. In conclusion, ANN was found to be better than LR when producing LSMs. The best Optimization was combination of FSLR-ANN with nine causative factors and AUC success rate 0.847, predictive rate 0.844 and validation with landslide fall into high and very high class with 91.30%. It is an encouraging preliminary model towards a systematic introduction of FSLR-ANN model for optimization causative factors in landslide susceptibility assessment in the mountainous area of Ujung Loe Watershed.  相似文献   

11.
多分类器决策融合方法在提高遥感影像分类的准确性和可靠性方面已表现出了巨大潜力,但这一过程中对所有像元多次分类会产生巨大的时间代价,为改善这一问题,本文提出了主分类器的概念。在青海湟水流域确定2个试验区,对7种常用的分类器进行评估,排除精度较低的3种分类器后,选择支持向量机(Support Vector Machine, SVM)、多层感知机(Multilayer Perceptron, MLP)、随机森林(Random Forest, RF)和梯度提升树(Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, GBDT)4种不同的分类器,建立决策规则共同对SPOT-6影像分类。为提高分类效率,以精度最高的GBDT作为主分类器对影像分类后,仅对结果中可信度不高的像元使用多分类器共同决策。研究结果表明,2个区域内主分类器独立完成分类的像元分别占38.10%和65.26%,错分率为1.57%和2.18%;多分类器共同决策的区域,相比GBDT的分类结果,总体精度分别高出2.49%和3.66%。整体上看,决策融合使2个区域的总体分类精度分别提高了1.18%和1.09%,能够有效减少分类结果中的“椒盐噪声”,精度更加均衡。相比现有的决策融合方法,主分类器的使用在保证分类精度的同时有利于分类效率的提高及分类结果保持良好的一致性。  相似文献   

12.
GIS based spatial data analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping   总被引:5,自引:4,他引:1  
Landslide susceptibility map delineates the potential zones for landslides occurrence. The paper presents a statistical approach through spatial data analysis in GIS for landslide susceptibility mapping in parts of Sikkim Himalaya. Six important causative factors for landslide occurrences were selected and corresponding thematic data layers were prepared in GIS. Topographic maps,satellite image,field data and published maps constitute the input data for thematic layer preparation. Numerical weights for different categories of these factors were determined based on a statistical approach and the weighted thematic layers were integrated in GIS environment to generate the landslide susceptibility map of the area. The landslide susceptibility map classifies the area into five different landslide susceptible zones i.e.,very high,high,moderate,low and very low. This map was validated using the existing landslide distribution in the area.  相似文献   

13.
编制科学的滑坡易发性分区图,可以有效降低灾害带来的损失。以云南省芒市为研究区,利用确定性系数模型(certainty factor,简称CF)方法计算各个因子的敏感值,作为随机森林(random forests,简称RF)的分类数据,选取合适的训练数据和最优化的模型参数进行模型预测,从而对研究区进行滑坡易发性评价分区。采用频率比方法将连续性因子离散化,从而通过确定性系数计算因子不同区间的滑坡易发性,同时利用CF先验模型,对研究区负样本进行选取。通过计算袋外误差得到最优化的RF参数,随后利用RF模型对研究区模型进行训练及预测。绘制ROC曲线和三维遥感影像对预测模型结果分别进行定量和定性评价,结果表明,所得到的模型精度为91%,优于随机抽样得到的结果。最后,采用平均基尼不纯度减少和平均准确度下降两种计算方法计算、评价了研究区各个因子的重要性。基于以上对研究区进行的滑坡易发性评价结果,可以为该区灾害风险评估和管理提供依据。   相似文献   

14.
A detailed landslide susceptibility map was produced in the Youfang catchment using logistic regression method with datasets developed for a geographic information system(GIS).Known as one of the most landslide-prone areas in China, the Youfang catchment of Longnan mountain region,which lies in the transitional area among QinghaiTibet Plateau, loess Plateau and Sichuan Basin, was selected as a representative case to evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides.Statistical relationships for landslide susceptibility assessment were developed using landslide and landslide causative factor databases.Logistic regression(LR)was used to create the landslide susceptibility maps based on a series of available data sources: landslide inventory; distance to drainage systems, faults and roads; slope angle and aspect; topographic elevation and topographical wetness index, and land use.The quality of the landslide susceptibility map produced in this paper was validated and the result can be used fordesigning protective and mitigation measures against landslide hazards.The landslide susceptibility map is expected to provide a fundamental tool for landslide hazards assessment and risk management in the Youfang catchment.  相似文献   

15.
Wudu County in northwestern China frequently experiences large-scale landslide events.High-magnitude earthquakes and heavy rainfall events are the major triggering factors in the region.The aim of this research is to compare and combine landslide susceptibility assessments of rainfalltriggered and earthquake-triggered landslide events in the study area using Geographical Information System(GIS) and a logistic regression model.Two separate susceptibility maps were produced using inventories reflecting single landslide-triggering events,i.e.,earthquakes and heavy rain storms.Two groups of landslides were utilized: one group containing all landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events between 1995 and 2003 and the other group containing slope failures caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Subsequently,the individual maps were combined to illustrate the locations of maximum landslide probability.The use of the resulting three landslide susceptibility maps for landslide forecasting,spatial planning and for developing emergency response actions are discussed.The combined susceptibility map illustrates the total landslide susceptibility in the study area.  相似文献   

16.
机器学习模型广泛应用于区域性滑坡易发性分析。模型的选择关系到评价结果的可信度、准确率和稳定性。现有滑坡易发性分析模型对比研究侧重模型的预测精度。模型的稳定性和数据量敏感性对机器学习模型的性能评估同样非常重要。本文以福建省南平市蔡源流域为研究区,以四川省绵阳市北川县为验证区,从预测精度、稳定性和数据量敏感性3个方面深入对比BP(Back Propagation)人工神经网络模型和CART(Classification and Regression Tree)决策树模型在滑坡易发性分析中的效果,主要结论如下:① 在逐渐增加一定数量训练样本的过程中,BP人工神经网络模型预测精度的增长率更高。在蔡源流域内,当训练样本数量增加10 000时,BP人工神经网络模型的预测精度上升5.22%,CART决策树模型的预测精度上升2.11%。② BP人工神经网络的预测精度高于CART决策树模型,且较为稳定。在100组数据集上,BP人工神经网络模型验证集预测精度的均值和验证集滑坡样本预测精度的均值分别为81.60%和84.86%,高于CART决策树模型的72.97%和76.59%。与此同时,BP人工神经网络模型对应预测精度的标准差分别是0.32%和0.37%,小于CART决策树模型的0.35%和0.67%。③ BP人工神经网络模型分析的滑坡易发区相比CART决策树模型,更接近实际滑坡的空间分布。最后,北川县的验证实验也出现了相同的现象。  相似文献   

17.
In this study, a novel approach of the landslide numerical risk factor(LNRF) bivariate model was used in ensemble with linear multivariate regression(LMR) and boosted regression tree(BRT) models, coupled with radar remote sensing data and geographic information system(GIS), for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) in the Gorganroud watershed, Iran. Fifteen topographic, hydrological, geological and environmental conditioning factors and a landslide inventory(70%, or 298 landslides) were used in mapping. Phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar data were used to extract topographic parameters. Coefficients of tolerance and variance inflation factor were used to determine the coherence among conditioning factors. Data for the landslide inventory map were obtained from various resources, such as Iranian Landslide Working Party(ILWP), Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Organisation(FRWO), extensive field surveys, interpretation of aerial photos and satellite images, and radar data. Of the total data, 30% were used to validate LSMs, using area under the curve(AUC), frequency ratio(FR) and seed cell area index(SCAI).Normalised difference vegetation index, land use/land cover and slope degree in BRT model elevation, rainfall and distance from stream were found to be important factors and were given the highest weightage in modelling. Validation results using AUC showed that the ensemble LNRF-BRT and LNRFLMR models(AUC = 0.912(91.2%) and 0.907(90.7%), respectively) had high predictive accuracy than the LNRF model alone(AUC = 0.855(85.5%)). The FR and SCAI analyses showed that all models divided the parameter classes with high precision. Overall, our novel approach of combining multivariate and machine learning methods with bivariate models, radar remote sensing data and GIS proved to be a powerful tool for landslide susceptibility mapping.  相似文献   

18.
本文以山西省霍西煤矿区为研究区,利用遥感和GIS方法对滑坡灾害的敏感性进行了数值建模与定量评价。利用交叉检验方法构建了径向基核函数支持向量机滑坡敏感性评价模型,并基于拟合精度对模型进行了定量评价;对各评价因子在模型中的重要性进行对比分析;基于空间分辨率为30m的评价因子,通过径向基核函数支持向量机模型获得了霍西煤矿区滑坡敏感性指数值,并利用分位数法将霍西煤矿区的滑坡敏感性分为极高、高、中和低4个等级。结果表明:拟合精度建模阶段和验证阶段分别为87.22%和70.12%;与滑坡敏感性关系最密切的5个评价因子依次是岩性、距道路距离、坡向、高程和土地利用类型;极高和高敏感区域分布了93.49%的滑坡点,面积占总面积的50.99%,是比较合理的分级方案。本研究不仅可以为研究区人工边坡调查和煤矿资源合理开采提供借鉴,对相似矿区的相关工作也具有参考价值。  相似文献   

19.
Ethiopia has a mountainous landscape which can be divided into the Northwestern and Southeastern plateaus by the Main Ethiopian Rift and Afar Depression. Debre Sina area is located in Central Ethiopia along the escarpment where landslide problem is frequent due to steep slope, complex geology, rift tectonics, heavy rainfall and seismicity. In order to tackle this problem, preparing a landslide susceptibility map is very important. For this, GISbased frequency ratio(FR) and logistic regression(LR) models have been applied using landslide inventory and the nine landslide factors(i.e. lithology, land use, distance from river fault, slope, aspect, elevation, curvature and annual rainfall). Database construction, weighting each factor classes or factors, preparing susceptibility map and validation were the major steps to be undertaken. Both models require a rasterized landslide inventory and landslide factor maps. The former was classified into training and validation landslides. Using FR model, weights for each factor classes were calculated and assigned so that all the weighted factor maps can be added to produce a landslide susceptibility map. In the case of LR model, the entire study area is firstly divided into landslide and non-landslide areas using the training landslides. Then, these areas are changed into landslide and non-landslide points so as to extract the FR maps of the nine landslide factors. Then a linear relationship is established between training landslides and landslide factors in SPSS. Based on this relationship, the final landslide susceptibility map is prepared using LR equation. The success-rate and prediction-rate of FR model were 74.8% and 73.5%, while in case of LR model these were 75.7% and 74.5% respectively. A close similarity in the prediction and validation rates showed that the model is acceptable. Accuracy of LR model is slightly better in predicting the landslide susceptibility of the area compared to FR model.  相似文献   

20.
对于滑坡易发性预测中的水系、公路和断层等线状环境因子, 现有研究大多采用缓冲分析提取距离线状因子的距离。但缓冲分析得到的线距离属于离散型变量, 带有大小不等的随机波动性且对点或线要素的误差较为敏感, 导致滑坡易发性建模精度下降。提出了使用水系和公路的空间密度等连续型变量改进线状环境因子的适宜性。以江西省安远县为例, 选取高程、地形起伏度、距水系和公路距离等14个环境因子(原始因子), 再将距水系和公路距离2个线状因子改进为水系密度和公路密度(改进因子); 之后采用逻辑回归、多层感知器、支持向量机和C5.0决策树等机器学习模型, 分别构建了基于原始因子和改进因子的机器学习模型以预测滑坡易发性; 最后利用ROC曲线和易发性指数分布特征等来研究建模规律。结果表明: ①改进因子机器学习预测精度均高于原始因子机器学习模型, 表明空间密度对于易发性预测的适宜性更好; ②在4类机器学习模型中C5.0模型对于滑坡易发性预测性能最好, 其次是SVM、MLP和LR; ③水系和公路两类环境因子的重要性较高且使用改进因子机器学习后这两类环境因子重要性排名依然非常靠前。   相似文献   

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