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1.
The geomagnetic Kp-index data for the 1932–1969 period have been investigated by means of a modified power spectrum technique on the basis of overlapping 2-yr intervals. The observed 27-, and 13.5-day periodicities show an obvious solar cycle dependence through the whole period concerned. Also, periodicities in the range of 9?4 days have been observed through years of minimum and decreasing phases of solar activity. The periodicities observed are found to be related to the existence of variations in the interplanetary medium structure which modulates the geomagnetic activity.  相似文献   

2.
TheK p-indices measured at Misallat station [ø = 29°45 N; = 30°54 E] during the period 1958–1989, have been compared with the data of two geomagnetic stations; one of them has similar longitude as Misallat and the second has almost similar latitude. The spectra of daily and hourly data of the three stations are compared together to define the latitude and longitude-effects on the detected periodicities. Daily periodicities ofK p-index activities at the values 32.7, 21.2, 12.9, 11.6 and 9.2 days have been obtained to be common in the spectra of the three stations. The existence of 5-days periodicity in these stations has also been detected.  相似文献   

3.
Heikki Nevanlinna 《Solar physics》2004,224(1-2):395-405
We have compiled archived geomagnetic observations from the Helsinki magnetic observatory as well as visual sightings of auroral occurrence in Finland. The magnetic database comprises about 2 000 000 observations of H- and D-components measured during 1844–1909 with time resolution of 10 min to 1 h. In addition, magnetic observations carried out in the First and Second Polar Years in Finland have been recompiled. Magnetic activity indices (three-hour K-and daily Ak-figures) have been derived from the magnetic observations. Comparisons between the Finnish indices and simultaneous global aa-index (starting in 1868) show a good mutual correlation. The Helsinki activity index series can be used as a (pseudo) extension of the aa-index series for about two solar cycles 1844d –1868. On the annual level the correlation coefficient is about 0.9 during the overlapped time interval 1868–1897. The auroral database consists of about 20 000 single observations observed in Finland since the year 1748. The database of visual auroras has been completed by auroral occurrence (AO) index data derived from the Finnish all-sky camera recordings during 1973 –1997 at several sites in Lapland. The AO-index reveals both spatial and temporal variations of auroras from diurnal to solar cycle time scales in different space weather conditions.  相似文献   

4.
The 11-year modulation of cosmic-ray intensity is studied using the data from nine world-wide neutron monitoring station over the period 1965–1975. From this analysis the following relation among the modulated cosmic-ray intensityI, the relative sunspot numberR, the number of proton eventsN p and the geomagnetic indexA p has been derived which describes the long-term modulation of cosmic rays $$I = C - 10^{ - 3} (KR + 4N_P + 12A_P ),$$ whereC is a constant which depends on the rigidity of each station, andK is a coefficient related to the diffusion coefficient of cosmic rays and its transition in space. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values of cosmic-ray intensity is about 5–9%. This relation has been explained by a generalization of the Simpson solar wind model which has been proved by the spherically symmetric diffusion-convection theory.  相似文献   

5.
Periodicities of 22, 8 and 6 years have been found by a statistical analysis of the coefficient of atmospheric activity R of Jupiter for the time period 1910–1985.We have also found variations of the coefficient of asymmetry of the activity Z measured by the Observatory of Athens for the time period 1956–1985 with periodicities of 12, 8, 6 and 4 years by statistical analysis.The same periodicities have been recently found in an analysis of the total number of solar flares and in the number of high velocity solar wind streamers.  相似文献   

6.
The geomagnetic effect of active centers of the Sun has been investigated statistically dividing into three groups according to the values of — Bo of the active centers and using the method of superposed epochs. Some interesting results between active centers and recurrent and sporadic storm days have been found; that is, recurrent storm days do not increase significantly while the frequency of sporadic storm days increases when the active centers approach to the Sun-Earth line. We have also investigated new periodicities of aa, Ap and Ci indices using Discrete Fourier Transforms, and have found some new periodicities and confirmed the known ones.  相似文献   

7.
The solar inertial motions (orbits) (SIMs) in the years 1840–1905 and 1980–2045 are of a disordered type and they are nearly identical. This fact was used for assessing predictive capabilities for the sizes of three future sunspot cycles and for the time variation of the geomagnetic aa-index up to 2045. The author found that the variations in sunspot numbers in the interval 1840–1867 and in the interval 1980–2007 are similar, especially after 1850 (1990). The differences may be ascribed to the lower quality of the sunspot data before 1850. A similarity between the variations in geomagnetic aa-index in the intervals 1844–1867 and 1984–2007 is also found. Moreover, the aa-index in these intervals have the same best fit lines (the polynomials of the fourth order) with close positions of the extrema. The extrema of the best fit line for the aa-index in the interval 1906–1928 which corresponds to the first half of the ordered, trefoil interval of the SIM have the opposite positions to them. The correlation coefficient between the aa-indices in the interval 1844–1866 and in the interval 1984–2006 is 0.61. In contrast, the correlation coefficient between the aa-indices in the interval 1844–1866 and in the interval 1906–1928 is ?0.43. Cautious predictions have been made: the author believes that the cycles 24–26 will be a repeat of cycles 11–13, i.e. they could have heights around 140 (100), 65 and 85, they will have lengths of 11.7, 10.7 and 12.1 years. The maxima of the cycles should occur in 2010, 2023 and 2033, the minima in 2007, 2018, 2029 and 2041. Up to 2045, the aa-index could repeat its values for the interval 1868–1905. The results indicate that solar and geomagnetic activities are non random processes. If these predictions may come true, then further evidence of the primary role of the SIM in solar variability is established.  相似文献   

8.
Selecting the most appropriate source functions among the various solar, interplanetary and terrestrial activity indices we have attempted to reproduce to a certain degree the long-term modulation of galactic cosmic-rays. For this study monthly cosmic-ray data from nine world-wide neutron monitor stations for the period 1975–1985 have been analysed. The empirical formula which has been used to compute the long-term cosmic-ray variations follows the observations fairly well.It is noteworthy that the residuals in the cosmic-ray intensity between that observed and that calculated by this empirical formula exhibits a still remaining short-term variation in all stations of 2.7 and 3.7 months. Possible interpretations of these observed periodicities related to galactic origin are given.  相似文献   

9.
We studied the dependence of the A p -index describing the geomagnetic disturbance on the Moon’s phase. We processed available data for cycles 20–23 of the solar activity by the epoch super-position method. We discovered that, in the declining branch of the solar cycle, the highest values of the A p -index relative to an average value are observed near new moon. The difference of the A p -index values for new moon and full moon is approximately 18%. In the branch of increase and maximum of the solar cycle, we observed minimum values of the A p -index during several days before full moon, and maximum values of the A p -index take place during several days after full moon. The conclusion follows from this that the mechanism of the Moon’s effect on the earth’s magnetosphere is different essentially for intervals near new moon and full moon.  相似文献   

10.
During the second interval of the Study of Travelling Interplanetary Phenomena (STIP, 20 March–5 May, 1976) a series of solar, interplanetary, geomagnetic and cosmic-ray events have occurred. These are surprising events, since this period falls into the minimum of the solar activity of the past solar cycle. The present analysis is concentrated on Forbush decreases, cosmic-ray increases, geomagnetic variations and the related solar wind disturbances recorded by the heliocentric satellites Helios-1, 2 and the geocentric IMP-8, in the period 23 March–7 April, 1976. The cosmic-ray enhancements on 26 March and 1 April were of geomagnetic origin and particularly expressed in middle latitude stations during the largeDst magnetic field depressions. The detected multiple Forbush decreases are related with the type IV solar flares, all produced by the same active region (McMath Plage 14143). The relative positions among the satellites Helios-1, 2, the Sun, and the Earth were very favorable in this period for studying these events, since Helios-1 approached the Sun to its perihelion and Helios-2 was lined-up with the Earth. Helios-2 detected two shock fronts on 30 March and 1 April, respectively, and Helios-1 detected a tangential discontinuity on 26 March. An attempt is made to relate these shock fronts with the erupted solar flares and Storm Sudden Commencements (SSC) recorded on the Earth and to estimate a lower limit of the deceleration distance of the involved shock waves.  相似文献   

11.
We use observations of the green corona low-brightness regions to construct a time series of a polar coronal hole area from 1939 to 1996, covering 5 solar cycles. We then perform a power-spectral analysis of the monthly data time series. Several persistent significant periodicities appear in the spectra, which are related with those found in solar magnetic flux emergence, geomagnetic storm sudden commencements and cosmic-ray flux at Earth. Of particular importance are the peak at around 1.6–1.8 yr recently found in cosmic-ray intensity fluctuations, and the peak at around 1 yr, also identified in coronal hole magnetic flux variations. Additional interesting features are the peaks close to 5 yr, 3 yr and the possible peak at around 30 yr, that were also found in other solar and interplanetary phenomena. Our results stress the physical connection between the solar magnetic flux emergence and the interplanetary medium dynamics, in particular the importance of coronal hole evolution in the structuring of the heliosphere.  相似文献   

12.
A reference catalogue of 430 well-defined high-speed plasma streams detected in solar-wind observations from 1972 to 1984 is presented. We have given the main characteristics of the streams as the beginning time and the duration of the stream, the interplanetary magnetic field polarity, etc. We have also separated them with respect to their origin into two categories: the corotating and the flare-generated streams. As a first application of this useful catalogue, a correlative study between the maximum speed of streams and the A p -index of geomagnetic activity is carried out.  相似文献   

13.
Du  Zhanle 《Solar physics》2011,270(1):407-416
The correlation coefficient (r) between the maximum amplitude (R m) of a sunspot cycle and the preceding minimum aa geomagnetic index (aa min), in terms of geomagnetic cycle, can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-cycle periodicity superimposed on a declining trend. The prediction index (χ) of the prediction error relative to its estimated uncertainty based on a geomagnetic precursor method can be fitted by a sinusoidal function with a four-and-half-cycle periodicity. A revised prediction relationship is found between the two quantities: χ<1.2 if r varies in a rising trend, and χ>1.2 if r varies in a declining trend. The prediction accuracy of R m depends on the long-term variation in the correlation. These results indicate that the prediction for the next cycle inferred from this method, R m(24)=87±23 regarding the 75% level of confidence (1.2-σ), is likely to fail. When using another predictor of sunspot area instead of the geomagnetic index, similar results can be also obtained. Dynamo models will have better predictive powers when having considered the long-term periodicities.  相似文献   

14.

Forbush decreases (FDs) are sharp reductions of the cosmic-ray (CR) intensity, following intense solar activity such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their corresponding interplanetary shocks. In some cases, shocks create sudden storm commencements (SSCs) at the Earth’s magnetosphere with significant interest for space-weather studies. Preincreases and/or predecreases of CR intensity before the onset of FDs, known as precursory signals, have been widely examined by many authors. In this work, an attempt to define precursory signals that are not related to SSCs is presented. For the present analysis, CR data recorded by the ground-based Neutron Monitor Network as well as data on solar flares, CMEs, solar-wind speed, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic indices for the years 1969?–?2019 are used. To identify FDs that present precursors, the adopted criteria are mainly the FD amplitude (> 2%) and the equatorial CR anisotropy before the onset time (> 0.8%). The analysis of FDs and the study of their asymptotic-longitude CR distribution for precursors are based on the Global Survey Method and the Ring of Stations Method, respectively. Precursory signals are identified in 17 out of 27 events without SSCs.

  相似文献   

15.
Long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays were compared with the behavior of various solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the current solar cycle. This study continues previous works where the cosmic-ray intensity for the solar cycles 20, 21, and 22 was well simulated from the linear combination of the sunspot number, the number of grouped solar flares, and the geomagnetic index A p. The application of this model to the current solar cycle characterized by many peculiarities and extreme solar events led us to study more empirical relations between solar-heliospheric variables, such as the interplanetary magnetic field, coronal mass ejections, and the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and cosmic-ray modulation. By analyzing monthly cosmic-ray data from the Neutron Monitor Stations of Oulu (cutoff rigidity 0.81 GV) and Moscow (2.42 GV) the contribution of these parameters in the ascending, maximum, and descending phases of the cycle was investigated and it is shown that a combination of these parameters reproduces the majority of the modulation potential variations during this cycle. The approach applied makes it possible to better describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of the solar maxima, which could not be done before. An extended study of the time profiles, the correlations, and the time lags of the cosmic-ray intensity against these parameters using the method of minimizing RMS over all the considered period 1996 – 2006 determines characteristic properties of this cycle as being an odd cycle. Moreover, the obtained hysteresis curves and a correlative analysis during the positive polarity (qA>0, where q is the particle charge) and during the negative polarity (qA<0) intervals of the cycle result in significantly different behavior between solar and heliospheric parameters. The time lag and the correlation coefficient of the cosmic-ray intensity are higher for the solar indices in comparison to the heliospheric ones. A similar behavior also appears in the case of the intervals with positive and negative polarity of the solar magnetic field.  相似文献   

16.
Application of analyzing time-series into trigonometric series allows the investigation of cosmic-ray intensity variations in a wide periodicity range from a few months to 10 or even more years. By this technique, the amplitude and the phase of all observed fluctuations can be given. For this purpose, cosmic-ray data of five ground-based neutron-monitor stations for the time interval 1964–1985 have been analyzed.Two kinds of periodicities appeared in these data. The first one includes occurrences at periods greater than two years, as the ones of 10.41, 8.41, and 5.50 yr, which differ very little in amplitude from station to station but are similar in phase, and the second one includes periodicities smaller than two years (24, 12, 8, and 6 months) which are similar in all stations but appeared in variable time intervals.The possible origin of each observed variation due to a contribution either of cosmic-ray interaction in the upper atmosphere or to the solar dynamics is discussed.  相似文献   

17.
A careful correlation analysis is made between various types of solar activity as observed at photospheric levels and the daily variations of the geomagnetic Kp-index which, in turn, is a measure of the solar wind speed. We find that in no case does a significant enough correlation exist to pin-point a physical relation between some aspect of photospheric activity and the solar wind speed. It is concluded that the physical processes that do determine the wind speed occur at coronal heights.  相似文献   

18.
It has been proposed that the observed solar neutrino flux exhibits important correlations with solar particles, galactic cosmic rays, and the sunspot cycle, with the latter correlation being opposite in phase and lagging behind the sunspot cycle by about one year. Re-examination of the data-available interval 1971–1981, employing various tests of statistical significance, however, suggests that such a claim is, at present, unwarrantable. For example, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic-ray flux with the Ap geomagnetic index, neither were found to be statistically significant (at the 95% level of confidence), regardless of the choice of lag (-1, 0, or +1 yr). Presuming linear fits, all correlations with Ap had coefficients of determination (r 2, where r is the linear correlation coefficient) less than 16%, meaning that 16% of the variation in the selected test parameters could be explained by the variation in Ap. Similarly, on the associations of solar neutrino flux and cosmic ray flux with sunspot number, only the latter association proved to be of statistical importance. Using the best linear fits, the correlation between yearly averages of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r 2 19%, the correlation between weighted moving averages (of order 5) of solar neutrino flux and sunspot number had r 2 45%, and the correlation between cosmic-ray flux and sunspot number had r 2 76%, all correlations being inverse associations. Solar neutrino flux was found not to correlate strongly with cosmic-ray flux, and the Ap geomagnetic index was found not to correlate strongly with sunspot number.  相似文献   

19.
A three-dimensional model for the calculation of cosmic-ray intensity of the Inuvik station during the 20th and 21st solar cycles is given. Especially we have studied the coefficient K of the used parameter of sunspot number in terms of high-speed solar-wind streams and have tried enough successfully to relate this coefficient with the diffusion process of cosmic rays in the interplanetary space.Analyzing these two data sets for the time-period 1964–1985 into a network of trigonometric series we have observed similar period in the two sets. It means that we have the same in general line variations in the high-speed streams as well as to the coefficient K expressed by this way the diffusion coefficient of cosmic-rays.  相似文献   

20.
The behavior of a number of solar wind, radiation belt, auroral and geomagnetic parameters is examined during the recent extended solar minimum and previous solar cycles, covering the period from January 1972 to July 2010. This period includes most of the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24, which was more extended than recent solar minima, with historically low values of most of these parameters in 2009. Solar rotational periodicities from 5 to 27 days were found from daily averages over 81 days for the parameters. There were very strong 9-day periodicities in many variables in 2005?–?2008, triggered by recurring corotating high-speed streams (HSS). All rotational amplitudes were relatively large in the descending and early minimum phases of the solar cycle, when HSS are the predominant solar wind structures. There were minima in the amplitudes of all solar rotational periodicities near the end of each solar minimum, as well as at the start of the reversal of the solar magnetic field polarity at solar maximum (～?1980, ～?1990, and ～?2001) when the occurrence frequency of HSS is relatively low. Semiannual equinoctial periodicities, which were relatively strong in the 1995?–?1997 solar minimum, were found to be primarily the result of the changing amplitudes of the 13.5- and 27-day periodicities, where 13.5-day amplitudes were better correlated with heliospheric daily observations and 27-day amplitudes correlated better with Earth-based daily observations. The equinoctial rotational amplitudes of the Earth-based parameters were probably enhanced by a combination of the Russell-McPherron effect and a reduction in the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling efficiency during solstices. The rotational amplitudes were cross-correlated with each other, where the 27-day amplitudes showed some of the weakest cross-correlations. The rotational amplitudes of the >?2 MeV radiation belt electron number fluxes were progressively weaker from 27- to 5-day periods, showing that processes in the magnetosphere act as a low-pass filter between the solar wind and the radiation belt. The A p/K p magnetic currents observed at subauroral latitudes are sensitive to proton auroral precipitation, especially for 9-day and shorter periods, while the A p/K p currents are governed by electron auroral precipitation for 13.5- and 27-day periodicities.  相似文献   

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