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1.
Abstract There is a lack of consistency and generality in assessing the performance of hydrological data-driven forecasting models, and this paper presents a new measure for evaluating that performance. Despite the fact that the objectives of hydrological data-driven forecasting models differ from those of the conventional hydrological simulation models, criteria designed to evaluate the latter models have been used until now to assess the performance of the former. Thus, the objectives of this paper are, firstly, to examine the limitations in applying conventional methods for evaluating the data-driven forecasting model performance, and, secondly, to present new performance evaluation methods that can be used to evaluate hydrological data-driven forecasting models with consistency and objectivity. The relative correlation coefficient (RCC) is used to estimate the forecasting efficiency relative to the naïve model (unchanged situation) in data-driven forecasting. A case study with 12 artificial data sets was performed to assess the evaluation measures of Persistence Index (PI), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSC) and RCC. In particular, for six of the data sets with strong persistence and autocorrelation coefficients of 0.966–0.713 at correlation coefficients of 0.977–0.989, the PIs varied markedly from 0.368 to 0.930 and the NSCs were almost constant in the range 0.943–0.972, irrespective of the autocorrelation coefficients and correlation coefficients. However, the RCCs represented an increase of forecasting efficiency from 2.1% to 37.8% according to the persistence. The study results show that RCC is more useful than conventional evaluation methods as the latter do not provide a metric rating of model improvement relative to naïve models in data-driven forecasting. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis, Associate editor D. Yang Citation Hwang, S.H., Ham, D.H., and Kim, J.H., 2012. A new measure for assessing the efficiency of hydrological data-driven forecasting models. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (7), 1257–1274. 相似文献
2.
Z. W. Kundzewicz V. Krysanova R. Dankers Y. Hirabayashi S. Kanae F. F. Hattermann 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(1):1-14
This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned 相似文献
3.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(15):1932-1942
ABSTRACTThe UK Hydrological Outlook (UKHO) is a seasonal forecast of future river flows and groundwater levels. The UKHO contains both presentations of outputs from models simulating future conditions and a high-level summary. The summary is produced by an expert panel of forecasters that considers the model outputs together with other recent hydrological and meteorological information. Whilst the skill and uncertainty of the individual models have been explored and published, this study sets out to establish the performance of the high-level summary, and presents such an assessment of the river flow forecasts at the 1-month timescale. Both qualitative and quantitative assessments are presented and compared with two naïve forecasting methods. The UKHO summary is found to have a similar Gerrity skill score to a “same as last month” forecast, an outcome that generates suggestions for improvements in how the different model outputs should be considered and presented in the high-level summary. 相似文献
4.
The life‐cycle cost can be regarded as a benchmark variable in decision making problems involving the retrofit and upgrading of existing structures. A critical infrastructure is often subjected to more than one hazard during its lifetime. Therefore, the problem of evaluating the life‐cycle cost involves uncertainties in both loading and structural modeling parameters. The present study is a preliminary study aiming to calculate the expected life‐cycle cost for a critical infrastructure subjected to more than one hazard in its service lifetime. A methodology is presented that takes into account both the uncertainty in the occurrence of future events due to different types of hazard and also the deterioration of the structure as a result of a series of events. In order to satisfy life safety conditions, the probability of exceeding the limit state of collapse is constrained to be smaller than an allowable threshold. Finally, the methodology is implemented in an illustrative numerical example which considers a structure subjected to both seismic hazard and blast hazard in both upgraded and non‐upgraded configurations. It is demonstrated how expected life‐cycle cost can be used as a criterion to distinguish between the two choices while satisfying the life safety constraint. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Mohammadreza Moharrami Ioannis Koutromanos Marios Panagiotou Sadik Can Girgin 《地震工程与结构动力学》2015,44(5):677-694
This paper uses nonlinear truss models for the analysis of shear‐dominated reinforced concrete (RC) columns subjected to cyclic loading. A previously established method, aimed to the analysis of RC walls, is enhanced to allow simulations of column members. The concrete constitutive equations are modified to account for the contribution of the aggregate interlock to the shear resistance. Additionally, an equation is proposed to determine the inclination angle of the diagonal members in the truss models. The modeling approach is validated using the results of quasi‐static and dynamic tests on shear‐dominated RC columns. The combination of predictive capabilities and conceptual simplicity establishes truss‐based models as an attractive approach for the systematic analysis of shear‐dominated RC frame construction. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Model performance evaluation for real-time flood forecasting has been conducted using various criteria. Although the coefficient of efficiency (CE) is most widely used, we demonstrate that a model achieving good model efficiency may actually be inferior to the naïve (or persistence) forecasting, if the flow series has a high lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient. We derived sample-dependent and AR model-dependent asymptotic relationships between the coefficient of efficiency and the coefficient of persistence (CP) which form the basis of a proposed CE–CP coupled model performance evaluation criterion. Considering the flow persistence and the model simplicity, the AR(2) model is suggested to be the benchmark model for performance evaluation of real-time flood forecasting models. We emphasize that performance evaluation of flood forecasting models using the proposed CE–CP coupled criterion should be carried out with respect to individual flood events. A single CE or CP value derived from a multi-event artifactual series by no means provides a multi-event overall evaluation and may actually disguise the real capability of the proposed model. 相似文献
7.
A structure's health or level of damage can be monitored by identifying changes in structural or modal parameters. However, the fundamental modal frequencies can sometimes be less sensitive to (localized) damage in large civil structures, although there are developing algorithms that seek to reduce this difficulty. This research directly identifies changes in structural stiffness due to modeling error or damage using a structural health monitoring method based on adaptive least mean square (LMS) filtering theory. The focus is on computational simplicity to enable real‐time implementation. Several adaptive LMS filtering based approaches are used to analyze the data from the IASC–ASCE Structural Health Monitoring Task Group Benchmark problem. Results are compared with those from the task group and other published results. The proposed methods are shown to be very effective, accurately identifying damage to within 1%, with convergence times of 0.4–13.0 s for the twelve different 4 and 12 degree of freedom benchmark problems. The resulting modal parameters match to within 1% those from the benchmark problem definition. Finally, the methods developed require 1.4–14.0 Mcycles of computation and therefore could easily be implemented in real time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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9.
This paper presents a Lebedev finite difference scheme on staggered grids for the numerical simulation of wave propagation in an arbitrary 3D anisotropic elastic media. The main concept of the scheme is the definition of all the components of each tensor (vector) appearing in the elastic wave equation at the corresponding grid points, i.e., all of the stresses are stored in one set of nodes while all of the velocity components are stored in another. Meanwhile, the derivatives with respect to the spatial directions are approximated to the second order on two‐point stencils. The second‐order scheme is presented for the sake of simplicity and it is easy to expand to a higher order. Another approach, widely‐known as the rotated staggered grid scheme, is based on the same concept; therefore, this paper contains a detailed comparative analysis of the two schemes. It is shown that the dispersion condition of the Lebedev scheme is less restrictive than that of the rotated staggered grid scheme, while the stability criteria lead to approximately equal time stepping for the two approaches. The main advantage of the proposed scheme is its reduced computational memory requirements. Due to a less restrictive dispersion condition and the way the media parameters are stored, the Lebedev scheme requires only one‐third to two‐thirds of the computer memory required by the rotated staggered grid scheme. At the same time, the number of floating point operations performed by the Lebedev scheme is higher than that for the rotated staggered grid scheme. 相似文献
10.
This paper presents findings from a comprehensive analytical and experimental study on the uplift‐restraining XY‐FP sliding isolation system. To investigate the effectiveness of the XY‐FP isolator and provide a rational basis for evaluating the efficacy of the developed mathematical model, an extensive experimental program was conducted on the earthquake simulator at the University at Buffalo. The experimental program involved a slender, five‐storey, scale‐model frame seismically isolated with four XY‐FP isolators subjected to simulations of historical horizontal and vertical ground motions. The experimental response demonstrates the validity of the concept and provides evidence for the effectiveness of the XY‐FP isolator in preventing uplift. A comprehensive analytical model capable of emulating the mechanical behaviour of the XY‐FP isolator is developed and implemented in program 3D‐BASIS‐ME. The newly enhanced program is used to predict the dynamic response of the seismically‐isolated model structure. Comparison of analytical predictions with experimental results attests to the efficacy of the analytical model for simulating the response of the XY‐FP isolator. With its appealing conceptual simplicity and its proven effectiveness, the new uplift‐restraining isolator has the potential to facilitate the application of seismic isolation even under the most extreme of conditions, including but not limited to near‐fault strong ground motions and uplift‐prone structural systems. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
This study proposes an improved energy‐based approach for quantitative classification of velocity‐pulse‐like ground motions. The pulse amplitude is determined, in its value and in time location, by the amplitude of the half‐cycle pulse having the largest seismic energy. After conducting statistical analyses, a newly‐determined threshold level for selecting pulse‐like ground motions is derived; and then what followed is a comparison analysis of three pulse‐detecting schemes, one using the wavelet analysis, the other two using the energy concept. It is believed that other than providing a useful way of classifying pulse‐like ground motions for structural demand analysis, knowledge of this work could also benefit the development of the ground motion prediction equations accounting for pulse effects, and further to aid the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in a near‐fault environment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
An efficient algorithm for identifying pulse‐like ground motions based on significant velocity half‐cycles 
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下载免费PDF全文 Ground motions with strong velocity pulses are of particular interest to structural earthquake engineers because they have the potential to impose extreme seismic demands on structures. Accurate classification of records is essential in several earthquake engineering fields where pulse‐like ground motions should be distinguished from nonpulse‐like records, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic risk assessment of structures. This study proposes an effective method to identify pulse‐like ground motions having single, multiple, or irregular pulses. To effectively characterize the intrinsic pulse‐like features, the concept of an energy‐based significant velocity half‐cycle, which is visually identifiable, is first presented. Ground motions are classified into 6 categories according to the number of significant half‐cycles in the velocity time series. The pulse energy ratio is used as an indicator for quantitative identification, and then the energy threshold values for each type of ground motions are determined. Comprehensive comparisons of the proposed approach with 4 benchmark identification methods are conducted, and the results indicate that the methodology presented in this study can more accurately and efficiently distinguish pulse‐like and nonpulse‐like ground motions. Also presented are some insights into the reasons why many pulse‐like ground motions are not detected successfully by each of the benchmark methods. 相似文献
13.
This paper explores the notion of detailing reinforced concrete structural walls to develop base and mid‐height plastic hinges to better control the seismic response of tall cantilever wall buildings to strong shaking. This concept, termed here dual‐plastic hinge (DPH) concept, is used to reduce the effects of higher modes of response in high‐rise buildings. Higher modes can significantly increase the flexural demands in tall cantilever wall buildings. Lumped‐mass Euler–Bernoulli cantilevers are used to model the case‐study buildings examined in this paper. Buildings with 10, 20 and 40 stories are designed according to three different approaches: ACI‐318, Eurocode 8 and the proposed DPH concept. The buildings are designed and subjected to three‐specific historical strong near‐fault ground motions. The investigation clearly shows the dual‐hinge design concept is effective at reducing the effects of the second mode of response. An advantage of the concept is that, when combined with capacity design, it can result in relaxation of special reinforcing detailing in large portions of the walls. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
Ramesh S.V. Teegavarapu 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):383-406
Abstract New mathematical programming models are proposed, developed and evaluated in this study for estimating missing precipitation data. These models use nonlinear and mixed integer nonlinear mathematical programming (MINLP) formulations with binary variables. They overcome the limitations associated with spatial interpolation methods relevant to the arbitrary selection of weighting parameters, the number of control points within a neighbourhood, and the size of the neighbourhood itself. The formulations are solved using genetic algorithms. Daily precipitation data obtained from 15 rain gauging stations in a temperate climatic region are used to test and derive conclusions about the efficacy of these methods. The developed methods are compared with some naïve approaches, multiple linear regression, nonlinear least-square optimization, kriging, and global and local trend surface and thin-plate spline models. The results suggest that the proposed new mathematical programming formulations are superior to those obtained from all the other spatial interpolation methods tested in this study. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Grimaldi Citation Teegavarapu, R.S.V., 2012. Spatial interpolation using nonlinear mathematical programming models for estimation of missing precipitation records. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (3), 383–406. 相似文献
15.
《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(6):1478-1495
In soil‐structure interaction modeling of systems subjected to earthquake motions, it is classically assumed that the incoming wave field, produced by an earthquake, is unidimensional and vertically propagating. This work explores the validity of this assumption by performing earthquake soil‐structure interaction modeling, including explicit modeling of sources, seismic wave propagation, site, and structure. The domain reduction method is used to couple seismic (near‐field) simulations with local soil‐structure interaction response. The response of a generic nuclear power plant model computed using full earthquake soil‐structure interaction simulations is compared with the current state‐of‐the‐art method of deconvolving in depth the (simulated) free‐field motions, recorded at the site of interest, and assuming that the earthquake wave field is spatially unidimensional. Results show that the 1‐D wave‐field assumption does not hold in general. It is shown that the way in which full 3‐D analysis results differ from those which assume a 1‐D wave field is dependent on fault‐to‐site geometry and motion frequency content. It is argued that this is especially important for certain classes of soil‐structure systems of which nuclear power plants subjected to near‐field earthquakes are an example. 相似文献
16.
Geoffrey W. Rodgers Kevin M. Solberg J. Geoffrey Chase John B. Mander Brendon A. Bradley Rajesh P. Dhakal Luoman Li 《地震工程与结构动力学》2008,37(13):1549-1564
Ductile‐jointed connections, which generally require some form of supplementary energy dissipation to alleviate displacement response, typically employ mild steel energy dissipation devices. These devices run the risk of low‐cycle fatigue, are effective only for peak cycles that exceed prior displacements, are prone to buckling, and may require replacement following an earthquake. This study presents an experimental investigation employing an alternative to mild steel: a high force‐to‐volume (HF2V) class of damper‐based energy dissipation devices. Tests are performed on a near full‐scale beam–column joint subassembly utilizing externally mounted compact HF2V devices. Two configurations are considered: an exterior joint with two seismic beams and one gravity beam framing into a central column, and a corner joint with only one seismic beam and one gravity beam framing into a column. Quasi‐static tests are performed to column drifts up to 4%. The experiments validate the efficacy of the HF2V device concept, demonstrating good hysteretic energy dissipation, and minimal residual device force, allowing ready re‐centring of the joint. The devices dissipate energy consistently on every cycle without the deterioration observed in the yielding steel bar type of devices. The effectiveness of the HF2V devices on structural hysteretic behavior is noted to be sensitive to the relative stiffness of the anchoring elements, indicating that better efficiency would be obtained in an embedded design. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
The scaled boundary finite‐element method is extended to simulate time‐harmonic responses of non‐homogeneous unbounded domains with the elasticity modulus and mass density varying as power functions of spatial coordinates. The unbounded domains and the elasticity matrices are transformed to the scaled boundary coordinates. The scaled boundary finite‐element equation in displacement amplitudes are derived directly from the governing equations of elastodynamics. To enforce the radiation condition at infinity, an asymptotic expansion of the dynamic‐stiffness matrix for high frequency is developed. The dynamic‐stiffness matrix at lower frequency is obtained by numerical integration of ordinary differential equations. Only the boundary is discretized yielding a reduction of the spatial dimension by one. No fundamental solution is required. Material anisotropy is modelled without additional efforts. Examples of two‐ and three‐dimensional non‐homogeneous isotropic and transversely isotropic unbounded domains are presented. The results demonstrate the accuracy and simplicity of the scaled boundary finite‐element method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Inverse modeling studies employing data collected from the classic Henry seawater intrusion problem give insight into several important aspects of inverse modeling of seawater intrusion problems and effective measurement strategies for estimation of parameters for seawater intrusion. Despite the simplicity of the Henry problem, it embodies the behavior of a typical seawater intrusion situation in a single aquifer. Data collected from the numerical problem solution are employed without added noise in order to focus on the aspects of inverse modeling strategies dictated by the physics of variable-density flow and solute transport during seawater intrusion. Covariances of model parameters that can be estimated are strongly dependent on the physics. The insights gained from this type of analysis may be directly applied to field problems in the presence of data errors, using standard inverse modeling approaches to deal with uncertainty in data. 相似文献
19.
Passive high force‐to‐volume (HF2V) dampers offer significant displacement reduction and energy dissipation, but cannot customise overall response. Semi‐active resettable devices offer adaptive, custom hysteresis loops that reduce displacement and base shear, but have limited dissipation. This paper presents a new, combined concept to maximise displacement reduction without increasing base shear – a net‐zero base‐shear concept. HF2V devices, up to a maximum of 10% structural weight, are combined with fixed stiffness resettable devices. Spectral analyses are run for the three SAC ground motion suites that iteratively size the HF2V device at each structural period to achieve maximum displacement reductions without increasing median base shear. HF2V velocity dependence and the need to scale HF2V capacity to spectral velocity are examined in terms of their impact on the results of these analyses. The net‐zero approach reduces base shear by up to 50% and displacements by 30–70% over all ground motions, exceeding reductions obtained by either device separately by 30–50% (relative). The net‐zero condition is not reached within the device limits defined, except at relatively long periods (>3.5 s) because of a virtuous circle of reduced displacement from the resettable and HF2V devices outweighing the increased base shear from the HF2V devices alone. These results are independent of HF2V device scaling, design and velocity dependence. The overall net‐zero concept offers a significant advantage in a combination that cannot be achieved by passive or semi‐active solutions alone. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
S. Mossa Hosseini B. Ataie‐Ashtiani M. Kholghi 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2011,31(4):82-94
There are many fundamental problems with the injection of nano‐zero‐valent iron (NZVI) particles to create permeable reactive barrier (PRB) treatment zone. Among them the loss of medium porosity or pore blocking over time can be considered which leads to reduction of permeability and bypass of the flow and contaminant plume up‐gradient of the PRB. Present study provides a solution for such problems by confining the target zone for injection to the gate in a funnel‐and‐gate configuration. A laboratory‐scale experimental setup is used in this work. In the designed PRB gate, no additional material from porous media exists. NZVI (d50 = 52 ± 5 nm) particles are synthesized in water mixed with ethanol solvent system. A steady‐state condition is considered for the design of PRB size based on the concept of required contact time to obtain optimum width of PRB gate. Batch experiment is carried out and the results are used in the design of PRB gate width (~50 mm). Effect of high initial NO3–‐N concentration, NZVI concentration, and pore velocity of water in the range of laminar groundwater flow through porous media are evaluated on nitrate‐N reduction in PRB system. Results of PRB indicate that increasing the initial NO3–‐N concentration and pore velocity has inhibitor effect—against the effect of NZVI concentration—on the process of NO3–‐N removal. Settlement velocity (S.V.) of injected NZVI with different concentrations in the PRB is also investigated. Results indicate that the proposed PRB can solve the low permeability of medium in down‐gradient but increasing of the S.V. especially at higher concentration is one of the problems with this system that needs further investigations. 相似文献