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1.
Paola Traversa David Baumont Kévin Manchuel Emmanuelle Nayman Christophe Durouchoux 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2169-2193
The estimation of the seismological parameters of historical earthquakes is a key step when performing seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions as France. We propose an original method to assess magnitude and depth of historical earthquakes using intensity data points. A flowchart based on an exploration tree (ET) approach allows to apply a consistent methodology to all the different configurations of the earthquake macroseismic field and to explore the inherent uncertainties. The method is applied to French test case historical earthquakes, using the SisFrance (BRGM, IRSN, EDF) macroseismic database and the intensity prediction equations (IPEs) calibrated in the companion paper (Baumont et al. Bull Earthq Eng, 2017). A weighted least square scheme allowing for the joint inversion of magnitude and depth is applied to earthquakes that exhibit a decay of intensity with distance. Two cases are distinguished: (1) a “Complete ET” is applied to earthquakes located within the metropolitan territory, while (2) a “Simplified ET” is applied to both, offshore and cross border events, lacking information at short distances but disposing of reliable data at large ones. Finally, a priori-depth-based magnitude computation is applied to ancient or poorly documented events, only described by single/sporadic intensity data or few macroseismic testimonies. Specific processing of “felt” testimonies allows exploiting this complementary information for poorly described earthquakes. Uncertainties associated to magnitude and depth estimates result from both, full propagation of uncertainties related to the original macroseismic information and the epistemic uncertainty related to the IPEs selection procedure. 相似文献
2.
The macroseismic field of the Balkan area 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A catalogue of 356 macroseimic maps which are available for the Balkan area was compiled, including information on the source parameters of the corresponding earthquakes, the macroseismic parameters of their strength and their macroseismic field. The data analysis of this catalogue yields new empirical relations for attenuation, which can be applied for the calibration of historical events, modelling of isoseismals and seismic hazard assessment. An appropriate analysis allowed the separation and estimation of the average values of the geometrical spreading, n, and anelastic attenuation factor, c, for the examined area which were found equal to –3.227 ± 0.112 and –0.0033 ± 0.0010. Scaling relations for the focal macroseismic intensity, If, and the epicentral intensity I0, versus the earthquake moment magnitude were also determined for each Balkan country. A gradual decrease of the order of 0.5 to 1 intensity unit is demonstrated for recent (after 1970) earthquakes in Greece. Finally the depths of the examined earthquakes as they robustly determined (error <5 km) on the basis of macroseismic data were found to have small values ( 10 km). However large magnitude earthquakes show higher focal depths ( 25 km), in accordance with an increase of the seismic fault dimensions for such events. 相似文献
3.
探讨地震宏观破坏场分布的影响因素 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
提出震后根据仪器定位的微观震中和断层构造的关系快速确定可能的宏观震中位置,并依此使用烈度经验分布模型来进行震害快速评估。这将提高直接用微观震中位置进行震害快速评估方法的精度。通过对全国133个主要地震的微观震中与宏观震中偏离量进行统计可知。偏离量在35km范围内的占88％,其余基本都在75km范围内。这样就给出了判定宏观震中的重点区域和分析区域。详细分析南北地震带66个震例及其与断层空间分布特征的关系。以及震源机制解结果后发现,影响宏观震中偏离的因素除仪器定位本身的误差外,主要还有断层展布方向、活动规模、断层相互交接特征及震级大小等。通过对这些影响因素的分类处理分析,建立了震后室内快速判定可能的宏观震中位置的原则和步骤。以该方法为基础,通过建立包含有关因素的全国断层数据库,即可在实际的震害快速评估中得以应用。 相似文献
4.
5.
R. E. Tatevossian N. G. Mokrushina J. Ya. Aptekman T. N. Tatevossian 《Seismic Instruments》2013,49(2):115-138
Earthquakes that occurred in the Baikal seismic region in 1725, 1742, 1769, and 1829 are studied on the basis of original macroseismic information. Due to the fact that their parameters were previously determined using the combination of macroseismic and paleoseismic data, the goal of our investigation is to verify how well the solutions agree with the macroseismic evidence. Careful examination of macroseismic data includes, first of all, the searching for original sources, which cannot be replaced by any other data types, for instance, paleoseismic information characterized by questionable reliability. The completeness of analysis is achieved when different components are inspected separately before mixing. In the case when unequivocal data interpretation is impossible, it is better to consider different alternative solutions characterized by relatively narrow error ranges. Variants can be weighted correspondingly (at least, evaluated qualitatively). Otherwise we have to deal with the so-called “average” solutions, often useless due to great determination errors. Magnitudes of all earthquakes estimated previously on the basis of macroseismic and paleoseismic data are not confirmed by the original macroseismic information, and revised magnitudes are essentially lower. 相似文献
6.
Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake
maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability
also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy.
This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes
in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties
in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained
through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes
the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function
of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations
are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in
the magnitude range M
w = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible
in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region
and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit. 相似文献
7.
Yan B. Radziminovich 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(1):93-107
The parametric catalogues of historical earthquakes in East Siberia contain large data gaps. Among these is a 15-year period in the late nineteenth century (1886–1901). This period was not covered by any of macroseismic catalogues known; neither acquisition nor systematization of macroseismic data was ever performed for that purpose. However, 15 years is a rather long period in which large seismic events may have occurred. The present paper deals with the previously unknown earthquake that occurred on November 13, 1898. The primary macroseismic data were taken from regional periodicals. On the strength of all the evidence obtained, the earthquake epicenter is localized in Western Transbaikalia, near the western end of the Malkhansky Range; the magnitude is estimated at M?=?5.9. The information about the large earthquake of November 13, 1898 provides filling significant gaps in knowledge for seismicity in Western Transbaikalia and a better understanding of seismic potential of faults therein. The obtained results show that the periods of seismic quiescence in catalogues may be related to insufficient information on seismicity of Eastern Siberia in the historical past rather than to the absence of large earthquakes. 相似文献
8.
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10.
In the process of updating existing PSHA maps in Central Asia, a first step is the evaluation of the seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by applying a data driven method. Following the Site Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (SASHA) [11], the evaluation of the probability of exceedance of any given intensity value over a fixed exposure time, is mainly based on the seismic histories available at different locations without requiring any a-priori assumption about seismic zonation. The effects of earthquakes not included in the seismic history can be accounted by propagating the epicentral information through a Intensity Prediction Equation developed for the analyzed area. In order to comply with existing building codes in the region that use macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, we evaluated the seismic hazard at 2911 localities using a macroseismic catalog composed by 5322 intensity data points relevant to 75 earthquakes in the magnitude range 4.6–8.3. The results show that for most of the investigated area the intensity having a probability of at least 10% to be exceeded in 50 years is VIII. The intensity rises to IX for some area struck by strong earthquakes in the past, like the Chou-Kemin-Chilik fault zone in northern Tien-Shan, between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, or in Gissar range between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These values are about one intensity unit less than those evaluated in the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Ulomov, The GSHAP Region 7 working group [29]). Moreover, hazard curves have been extracted for the main towns of Central Asia and the results compared with the estimates previously obtained. A good agreement has been found for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan), while a lower probability of occurrence of I=VIII has been obtained for Tashkent (Uzbekistan) and a larger one for I=IX in Almaty (Kazakhstan). 相似文献
11.
N. N. Ambraseys 《地震工程与结构动力学》1985,13(3):361-399
The purpose of this paper is to present the results of an evaluation of the seismicity of western Scandinavia. Intensities, with reference to the MSK scale, have been assessed for the larger earthquakes, in most cases from primary sources, and isoseismal maps have been constructed for the most important events, while for smaller shocks one or more isoseismal radii were estimated. In all, over 3,200 earthquakes have been retrieved for Northwest Europe including about 300 artificial events such as chemical explosions, rock-bursts and mine explosions. Of these, 500 events occurred in western Scandinavia. Surface-wave magnitudes were reassessed for 205 events, using surface-wave amplitude-period data, and all earthquakes recorded by more than 6 stations were relocated for the period prior to 1955. A calibration formula, obtained from the combination of macroseismic and instrumental data of the 20th century, has been used to assign magnitudes to all events for which there is macroseismic information available, thus deriving a homogeneous body of data covering a period of 180 years. It is shown that the largest earthquake in the region since 1800 occurred on land and that it had a magnitude in excess of 6.0. This is contrary to the current belief, based on short-term data, that the larger events in western Fennoscandia occur offshore in the continental shelf areas. 相似文献
12.
中国大陆强震灾害范围的统计研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
强震的灾害范围是非常重要的地震学参数,它在地震灾害快速评估,地震保险及防震减灾等方面有着广泛的应用。本文全面,系统地收集了中国大陆宏观等震线资料,对没有地理坐标的等震线进行了数字化。精确计算了从１３０３年至１９９４年共１８３次强震的灾害范围,并对误差因素进行了分析。 相似文献
13.
D. Albarello A. Berardi C. Margottini M. Mucciarelli 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1995,145(2):297-312
A multi-parametric study of empirical relationships between macroseismic data and magnitude is presented for the Italian region by the analysis of a new extended data set concerning 146 earthquakes. The available magnitude determinations include all of the most intense earthquakes which occurred in Italy in the last century and have been obtained by an accurate revision of original instrumental data. Intensity data have been revised and upgraded on the basis of the most recent studies: only local intensities directly documented have been used. Macroseismic determinations ofM
s
,m
B
andM
wa
magnitudes have been performed. The empirical relationships between maximum felt intensity (I
max
) and magnitude have been determined by the use of a distribution-free approach and a linear regression analysis. This last parameterization allows for the explanation of more than 60% of the variation in magnitude. In order to improve these results, the linear dependence between magnitude,I
max
and average distances (in logarithm) corresponding to fixed attenuation values has been explored. The comparison between instrumental magnitudes and corresponding macroseismic estimates obtained from empirical relationships shows that the respective uncertainties are comparable. 相似文献
14.
An evaluation of the magnitude of historical earthquakes is proposed, through an empirical relation based on a felt area of historical earthquakes derived from a vectorial modelling of macroseismic intensity distribution. 相似文献
15.
段星北 《地震学报(英文版)》1997,10(6):731-741
ＧｅｏｇｒａｐｈｉｃａｌｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｈｙｐｏｃｅｎｔｒａｌｄｅｐｔｈｓｏｆＣｈｉｎｅｓｅｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓＸＩＮＧ－ＢＥＩＤＵＡＮ（段星北）ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒ... 相似文献
16.
对邯郸地震台网1984-2008年记录的磁县小地震,作双差定位,然后根据定位结果,对磁县历史强震断层参数作反演计算,求解磁县历史强震断层走向、倾角等特征参数,根据当地应力场来估算磁县历史强震断层的滑动角. 相似文献
17.
Three earthquakes that happened over two days in May 1951 caused extensive damage to villages in a small area of eastern El Salvador (Central America). Contemporary hypocentral solutions indicated focal depths, confirmed by re-calculations using available seismic data, of the order of 90 km, suggesting events associated with the subducted Cocos plate. Macroseismic observations strongly indicate that the earthquakes were of very shallow focus and this is supported by wave-form modeling and the appearance of seismograms recorded in Guatemala. A re-evaluation of the location and source characteristics for these events is presented, together with a fault plane solution and additional macroseismic evidence. The implications for seismic hazard and risk assessment in Central America, where shallow earthquakes of moderate magnitude, frequently occurring in clusters, pose the greatest threat to settlements which, like the area affected by these events, are concentrated along the axis of Quaternary volcanoes. 相似文献
18.
Further information on the macroseismic field in the Balkan area 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Papazachos and Papaioannou (1997) (called PP97 hereinafter) studied the macroseismic field in the Balkan area (Greece, Albania, former Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and western Turkey) with the purpose of deriving attenuation and scaling relations useful for seismic hazard assessment and study of historical earthquakes. In his comment, Trifunac suggests that our analysis might exhibit certain bias for all countries except Greece due to problems mainly associated with the database (completeness, etc.), conversion of local intensity scales used in the Balkan countries, as well as to the local variations of the attenuation relation due to the variation of the geotectonic environment in this area. Specifically, his most important comments can be summarized as follows: a) The large participation of Greek data probably biased the scaling relations proposed in the study. b) The conversion relations used between local macroseismic scales are less accurate than their proposed such relations. c) The variation of attenuation (geometrical and anelastic) in different regions of the study area is important and local relations (instead of the proposed single relation) should be determined for seismic hazard assessment. In the following, we study in detail each of these possible bias sources. Additional work on the macroseismic field of the Balkan area shows that none of the previously described factors, suggested by Trifunac, introduces bias in the results presented by PP97. Specifically, it is shown that the database used by PP97 fulfills the basic requirements for a reliable determinations of attenuation and scaling relations proper for seismic hazard assessment in all five countries of this area. Evidence is presented that no strong geographical variation of the attenuation of macroseismic intensities of shallow earthquakes is observed. Relations between local version of intensity scales suggested by Shebalin et al. (1974) are shown to be reliable. Finally, it is demonstrated that national practices for estimation of macroseismic intensities may affect the results of seismic hazard assessment but proper formulation can be applied (PP97) which allows to take into account such differences in national practices. This formulation allows also to introduce and correct for anisotropic radiation at the seismic source as well as the incorporation of site effects. 相似文献
19.
Ch. Kkallas C. B. Papazachos D. Boore Ch. Ventouzi B. N. Margaris 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(11):5121-5150
We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, namely the destructive 1926 M?=?7.7 Rhodes and 1935 M?=?6.9 Crete earthquakes, the unique 1956 M?=?6.9 Amorgos aftershock (recently proposed to be triggered by a shallow event), and the more recent 2002 M?=?5.9 Milos earthquake, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, IMM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of VS30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >?100 km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional “prediction” but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information. 相似文献
20.
L. Sirovich 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》1997,16(6):353-362
Recent tests on a series of earthquakes in California and Nevada suggest that in some regions the approximate shapes of the territories with equal earthquake-induced damage (expressed in terms of macroseismic intensity) could be synthetically traced out with a simple formula. This formula takes into account some gross features of the source: depth and length, unilateral or bilateral rupture, radiation patterns, rupture velocity, and directivity. Having been formulated on an empirical basis, the formula is however compatible with the so-called asymptotic approach, in which the far-field component of the Green's function is used. This paper presents the synthetic isoseismals of the earthquakes at Cedar Mountain, Nevada, 1932; Fairview Peak-Dixie Valley, Nevada, 1954; and Coalinga, California, 1983. An overall consistency, from acceptable to remarkable, between the observed intensity patterns and the synthetically back-predicted intensity has been obtained for them. Where the detailed modelling techniques available today are inapplicable, due to insufficient information on the features of the seismic sources, or to save time and money, the new formula may be utilizable for improving seismic hazard calculations.The formula was also used inversely for back-predicting geometric-kinematic parameters of the Coalinga 1983 earthquake from macroseismic maps. This gave characteristics for its source which are in good agreement with the majority of data inferred from modelling and from analyzing modern instrumental recordings. This striking result opens new perspectives in retrieving information on the source of ancient earthquakes for which only macroseismic information is available. 相似文献