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关于识别发震构造的思考与建议 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文基于地震活动是现代地质构造运动之产物,以及对我国及邻区现代构造条件的认识,指出了构造类比中值得关注的7个问题,提出了发震构造识别方法的新建议,其主要结果如下:(1)发震构造宜定义为,"在现代构造条件下,曾发生或可能发生地震的地质构造"。(2)我国及邻区的现代地质构造同第四纪以来的新构造运动是一脉相承,密不可分的。其中,①现代构造应力场具有明显的区域特征,而且从中更新世以来是基本稳定的;②组成我国大陆不同新构造类型的活动地块(构造单元)之间,存在包括地壳和上地幔横向非均匀性的构造格架差异;③大陆内部各活动地块之间,也存在不同的现代构造形变特征;④宜将中更新世的构造形迹作为与地震活动有关的现代构造形迹看待。(3)在进行构造类比时值得关注的问题有:①宜按活动断裂当前所处的发育阶段来评价其潜在地震;②断裂活动时代并非识别发震构造的充分条件,只有符合现代构造条件的粘~滑断裂,才应识别为大地震的发震构造;③只有同现代构造应力场相适应的先存构造,才可能孕育和发生地震;④对于某些单一断层参数与震级关系的统计结果,未考虑各地震构造区之间现代构造条件和断裂发育阶段的差异,则难以用于构造类比;⑤凡有新生代玄武岩(β6)出露的地段,有可能只发生6.5级以下的地震;⑥地震同地表断裂形迹之间没有必然的联系,尤其仅有断层物质特性分析或测年结果可用时,宜慎重对待为妥;⑦构造类比方法仅适用于识别与先存构造继承性活动有关的发震构造,对于活动地块内部新生或隐伏的发震构造仍无能为力。(4)对于发震构造识别方法的建议是:①以新构造单元为基础划分地震构造区;②按历史重演原则识别曾发生过地震的构造,即凡有较可靠中强以上地震震中、有小地震成丛或呈带分布、或有可信古地震遗迹的地段,均宜识别出符合现代构造条件的发震构造;③根据地震构造区内曾发生过不同震级档地震的构造标志,再按类比原则推断可能的发震构造;④综合评定地震构造区的极限地震,并以此作为区内发震构造最大潜在地震的阀限。 相似文献
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我国东北地区地震时空演变特征及其动力学研究 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文分析了我国东北地区中强地震空间分布特征和地震构造及震源机制特点,探讨了日本海俯冲带大地震迁移方向对中国东北地区中强地震空间分布的影响。结果表明:东北地区中强地震发震构造以NW向为主,Ms≥5 0的地震NW向发震构造约占67%,Ms≥5 8的地震NW向发震构造约占91%;日本海俯冲带大地震迁移方向对中国东北地区浅震的空间分布产生重要影响,当迁移方向与郯庐断裂带夹角较大时(α≥70°),地震主要发生在松辽盆地及其周边;当迁移方向与郯庐断裂带夹角较小时(α<70°),地震主要发生在郯庐断裂带附近。 相似文献
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利用层析成像的结果探讨安徽及邻区中强地震深部构造背景 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
利用层析成像的最新成果,对研究区(28°～39°N,112°～124°E)的中强地震深部构造环境进行了研究,结果表明:(1)研究区中强震位置、地表地质构造和活动构造单元的划分与上地壳速度结构之间存在一定的关联性。M≥6.0地震大多数分布在上地壳高速区与低速区的交接地带或高速区,低速区内的地震活动相对较少;分布在高速区的地震,主要活动在高速区内的速度变异地带。华北平原断块的边界带及其内部是研究区内主要的中强地震活动场所,该断块西、北部的裂陷盆地带在上地壳以间断的大片低速区为特征,在与高速区的交接地带,中强地震呈带状活动,并有活动断裂带的发育。北西向展布的周口-合肥-宣城低速条带分隔大别山、鲁西-安徽高速区,北侧与高速区的交接地带中强地震活动较为活跃,可能是华北、华南两大构造区在深部构造和现代活动构造上的一条重要分界线。(2)霍山-六安地区历史中强地震和近代小震活动频繁与东大别山中部在中地壳发育低速层及存在切穿地壳的两组深断裂有关。(3)安徽的中强地震活动在深部构造上分区特征明显,依据历史地震活动重演和发震构造条件(深部)类比的原则,对安徽未来存在发生5级左右地震的危险区进行了初步判定。 相似文献
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南天山及塔里木北缘构造带位于帕米尔地区东北侧,地震活动强烈。文中通过地质构造剖面、深部探测资料和地震震源机制解资料,综合研究了该区的地震构造模型。结果认为,该区的构造活动主要表现为天山地块逆冲于塔里木地块之上。天山构造系统包括迈丹断裂及其前缘推覆构造;塔里木构造系统包括深部的塔里木北缘断裂、基底共轭断层和浅部的推覆构造。塔里木北缘断裂是发育于塔里木地壳内部的高角度断裂,其形成原因在于塔里木和天山构造变形方向的差异。塔里木北缘断裂为研究区大地震的主要发震构造,天山推覆构造和塔里木基底断裂系统均具有不同性质的中强地震发震能力 相似文献
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面状发震构造在地震构造法中的应用：以大姚—姚安发震构造鉴定为例 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
核电厂地震安全性评价中的地震构造法,要求鉴定发震构造和划分地震构造区,在以往实践中,发震构造鉴定往往基于地表活动断裂构造,且表征为线状震源.当存在较强非随机分布的地震活动且难以找到清晰的地表活动断裂构造形迹时,地震构造法就难以合理地表现这些地震的危险性.本文以云南滇中大姚—姚安发震构造鉴定为例,探讨了在地表活动构造形迹不清,中强地震活动性较强的滇中大姚—姚安地区,采用面状发震构造来表征地震危险性的方法,讨论了在地震构造法中采用面状发震构造的必要性、鉴定思路和方法,并建议在今后的核工程地震危险性评价地震构造法中应充分考虑面状发震构造的应用. 相似文献
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Hazard and risk assessment in a complex multi-source volcanic area: the example of the Campania Region, Italy 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
In order to zone the territory of Campania Region (southern Italy) with regard to the hazard related to future explosive activity
of Somma-Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia Island, we drew a multi-source hazard map for tephra and pyroclastic flows. This
map, which merges the areas possibly endangered by the three volcanic sources, takes into account a large set of tephra fall
and pyroclastic flow events that have occurred in the last 10 ka. In detail, for fall products at Campi Flegrei and Somma-Vesuvio
we used the dispersal of past eruption products as deduced by field surveys and their recurrence over the whole area. For
pyroclastic flows, the field data were integrated with VEI = 4 simulated events; about 100 simulations sourcing from different
points of the area were performed, considering the different probability of vent opening. The spatial recurrence of products
of both past eruptions and simulated events was used to assign a weight to the area endangered by the single volcanic sources.
The sum of these weights in the areas exposed to the activity of two sources and/or to different kinds of products was used
to draw a hazard map, which highlights the spatial trend and the extent of the single equivalent classes at a regional scale.
A multi-source risk map was developed for the same areas as the graphic result of the product of volcanic hazard and exposure,
assessed in detail from a dasymetric map. The resulting multi-source hazard and risk maps are essential tools for communication
among scientists, local authorities, and the public, and may prove highly practical for long-term regional-scale mitigation
planning. 相似文献
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龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法。本文根据改进的Suzuki(1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序。通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性。根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图。本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据。 相似文献
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潘玉林 《地震地磁观测与研究》1996,17(6):71-74
文中讨论了我国火山灾害准确预报的可能性，对与火山灾害有关的一些重要问题，如高风险火山区的评估预测，火山灾害的预测评估的分期界定等进行了讨论。 相似文献
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芦山地震震后次生滑坡灾害风险评价研究 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
以北京时间2013年4月20日8时02分四川省雅安市芦山县7.0级地震为例,对研究区进行震后次生滑坡灾害风险评价.研究在利用芦山地震受灾区航空影像对震后次生滑坡灾害隐患点解译的基础上,选择坡度、坡向、震后累计降雨量和危险植被指数4个评价因子,利用统计分级法对各因子进行敏感性分析,采用层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP）对评价因子进行权重量化,最后综合运用GIS空间分析技术对芦山地震震后次生滑坡灾害进行风险评价,研究结果将研究区划分为次生滑坡灾害高危险区、中危险区和低危险区. 相似文献
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Miguel A. Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia Hugo Delgado-Granados Donald B. Dingwell 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(9):2155-2169
During volcanic explosions, volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) are frequently ejected. These projectiles represent a threat to people, infrastructure, vegetation, and aircraft due to their high temperatures and impact velocities. In order to protect people adequately, it is necessary to delimit the projectiles’ maximum range within well-defined explosion scenarios likely to occur in a particular volcano. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for VBP during volcanic eruptions is applied to Popocatépetl volcano. Three explosion scenarios with different intensities have been defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with VBP ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the “launching” kinetic energy of VBP observed in the field. In the case of Vulcanian eruptions, the most common type of activity at Popocatépetl, the ballistic model was used in concert with an eruptive model to correlate ballistic range with initial pressure and gas content, parameters that can be estimated by monitoring techniques. The results are validated with field data and video observations of different Vulcanian eruptions at Popocatépetl. For each scenario, the ballistic model is used to calculate the maximum range of VBP under optimum “launching” conditions: ballistic diameter, ejection angle, topography, and wind velocity. Our results are presented in the form of a VBP hazard map with topographic profiles that depict the likely maximum ranges of VBP under explosion scenarios defined specifically for Popocatépetl volcano. The hazard zones shown on the map allow the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises. 相似文献
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PRELIMINARY VOLCANIC HAZARD ZONATION IN JINLONGDINGZI VOLCANO,LONGANG VOLCANO AREA,JILIN PROVINCE,CHINA 
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下载免费PDF全文 Longgang volcano cluster is 150km away from the Tianchi volcano, located in Jingyu and Huinan Counties, Jilin Province, China. It had a long active history and produced hundreds of volcanoes. The latest and largest eruption occurred between 1 500 and 1 600 years ago by Jinlongdingzi(JLDZ)volcano which had several eruptions in the history. This paper discusses the volcanic hazard types, and using the numerical simulations of lava flow obtained with the Volcflow model, proposes the hazard zonation of JLDZ volcano area. JLDZ volcano eruption type is sub-plinian, which produced a great mass of tephra fallout, covering an area of 260km2. The major types of volcanic hazards in JLDZ area are lava flow, tephra fallout and spatter deposits. Volcflow is developed by Kelfoun for the simulation of volcanic flows. The result of Volcflow shows that the flows are on the both sides of the previous lava flows which are low-lying areas now. According to the physical parameters of historical eruption and Volcflow, we propose the preliminary volcanic hazard zonation in JLDZ area. The air fall deposits are the most dangerous product in JLDZ. The highly dangerous region of spatter deposits is limited to a radius of about 2km around the volcano. The high risk area of tephra fallout is between 2km to 9km around the volcano, and between 9km to 14km is the moderate risk area. Out of 14km, it is the low risk area. Lava flow is controlled by topography. From Jinchuan Town to Houhe Village near the volcano is the low-lying area. If the volcano erupts, these areas will be in danger. 相似文献
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在回顾总结了国外火山碎屑流灾害分析模型研究历史的基础上,本文选取了Flow3D模型对我国东北地区长白山天池火山未来大喷发可能产生的火山碎屑流进行了灾害区域划分。以长白山天池火山现代地形为依据,设定了11条未来爆炸式火山喷发时产生的火山碎屑流的可能流动线路。模拟结果表明,在喷发柱高度为10km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为13.7km;在喷发柱高度为20km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为35.4km;在喷发柱高度为30km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为57.8km。在此基础上,得出了长白山天池火山未来发生中规模、大规模和超大规模火山喷发时火山碎屑流的覆盖范围,完成了我国第一幅长白山天池火山碎屑流灾害区划图。 相似文献
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STUDY OF THE LAVA FLOW HAZARD ZONING BASED ON THE KINEMATIC THERMO-RHEOLOGICAL MODEL:EXAMPLE STUDY FOR THE ASHIKULE VOLCANO,XINJIANG 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The lava flow hazard is an important and frequent disaster for residents in the volcanic area. In this paper, we focus on the lava flow inundation hazard zoning based on the example case of the Ashikule volcano in Xinjiang, China. Firstly, the parameters of magma such as density, viscosity and temperature are calculated by the empirical formula of magma utilizing results of previous field geological survey and petrology analysis. Then, using the kinematic thermo-rheological model, we simulated the inundation area of lava flow from Ashi volcano at the effusion rates of 200m3/s and 500m3/s. The simulation results of Ashi volcano well coincide to the geological map and verify that the method and parameters are valid. Then the applied simulations were carried out to calculate the lava flow inundation area in future eruption at Ashi, Wuluke and Daheishan crater with different effusion rates. At last, according to the analysis of the applied simulation results and drawing lessons from the foreign disaster zoning method, the four-level hazard zoning was built and set with different colors. The first level with red color is the extra-dangerous zone that is always inundated in any eruption but only distributes near the lava spillway of the crater. The second level with orange color is the dangerous zone that is inundated in the medium scale eruption. The third level with yellow color is the sub-dangerous zone that is corresponding to the large eruption. The fourth level with blue color is the potential dangerous zone that is only inundated in the extra-large eruption. In addition, we put forward the suggestion to respond to and avoid the disaster in future. Although China has not been affected by the lava flow for nearly three hundred years, the prospective study in this paper will lay the foundation for the study of related disasters, and provide the reference for the major construction projects in the volcanic area. 相似文献
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In a companion paper, a methodology for ranking volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk was presented, and the likelihood and extent of potential hazards in the Auckland Region, New Zealand investigated. In this paper, the effects of each hazard are considered and the risk ranking completed. Values for effect are proportions of total loss and, as with likelihood and extent, are based on order of magnitude.Two outcomes were considered – building damage and loss of human life. In terms of building damage, tephra produces the highest risk by an order of magnitude, followed by lava flows and base surge. For loss of human life, risk from base surge is highest. The risks from pyroclastic flows and tsunami are an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, tephra fall followed by base surge produces the highest risk. The risks from lava flows and pyroclastic flows are an order of magnitude smaller. For building damage, the risk from Mt. Taranaki volcano, 280 km from the Auckland CBD, is largest, followed by Okataina volcanic centre, an Auckland volcanic field eruption centred on land, then Tongariro volcanic centre. In terms of human loss, the greatest risk is from an Auckland eruption centred on land. The risks from an Auckland eruption centred in the ocean, Okataina volcanic centre, and Taupo volcano are more than an order of magnitude smaller. When combined, the risk from Mt. Taranaki remains highest, followed by an Auckland eruption centred on land. The next largest risks are from the Okataina and Tongariro volcanic centres, followed by Taupo volcano.Three alternative situations were investigated. As multiple eruptions may occur from the Auckland volcanic field, it was assumed that a local event would involve two eruptions. This increased risk of a local eruption occurring on land so that it was equal to that of an eruption from Mt. Taranaki. It is possible that a future eruption may be of a similar, or larger size, to the previous Rangitoto eruption. Risk was re-calculated for local eruptions based on the extent of hazards from Rangitoto. This increased the risk of lava flow to greater than that of base surge, and the risk from an Auckland land eruption became greatest. The relative probabilities used for Mt. Taranaki volcano and the Auckland volcanic field may only be minimum values. When the probability of these occurring was increased by 50%, there was no change in either ranking.Editorial responsibility: J. S. Gilbert 相似文献