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INTRODUCTIONThe method of probabilistic seismic risk analysis was proposed by Cornell in1968(Cornell,1968).After more than30years development,it has become the main method for seismic riskassessment of engineering sites and seismic zonation,and has been u…  相似文献   

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Ａｎａｌｙｓｉｓｏｆｆｏｒｅｓｈｏｃｋｓｅｑｕｅｎｃｅｏｆｔｈｅ１９７５ＨａｉｃｈｅｎｇｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｏｆＭｓ７．３Ｚｈａｏ－ＲｏｎｇＺＵＯ（左兆荣）；Ｊｉａｎ－ＰｉｎｇＷＵ（吴建平）ａｎｄＺｈｉ－ＬｉｎｇＷＵ（巫志玲）（Ｉｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆ...  相似文献   

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Ｍａｔｈｅｍａｔｉｃａｌｍｏｄｅｌｌｉｎｇｏｆｎｏｎｌｉｎｅａｒｂｅｈａｖｉｏｕｒｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｉｔｙ杨立明，石特临，郭大庆Ｌｉ－ＭｉｎｇＹＡＮＧ；Ｔｅ－ＬｉｎＳＨＩａｎｄＤａ－ＱｉｎｇＧＵＯ（ＥａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＲｅｓｅａｒｃｈＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔ...  相似文献   

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In the past decade, the most authoritative catalogues of Chinese earthquakes and the most popular with seismologists in China are the following:(1) Gu Gongxu, 1983, Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes;(2) Min Ziqun, 1988, Concise Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes;(3) Xie Yusuou, 1989, Catalogue of Chinese Earthquakes (M≥ 4.7) from 1900-1980 with Uniform Magnitudes; and(4) Min Ziqun, 1995, Catalogue of Chinese Historical Strong Earthquakes. Earthquakes that occurred before 1900 are mainly documented in historical records.Since 1950s, more recent earthquakes were documented in two major compilations of historical records finished in 1956 and 1983-1987. Separately this effort resulted in two chronicles: two volumes for the first one and five volumes for the second one. The magnitudes are converted from the maximum intensity. These magnitudes, by convention, are connected with surface wave magnitudes. However, it is clear that they do not have any strict seismological definition.The period of 1900-1962 documen  相似文献   

6.
A method of estimation of occurrence probability of earthquake intensity at a given site from the results of a ten-year scale of earthquake prediction described with a probability of occurrence in a given "prediction cell" is proposed in this paper. 2316 cities and towns in China were analyzed by using this method. The probability of intensity Ⅵ-Ⅸ were given for every city. These results can be used for the earthquake insurance, loss estimation, and planning of disaster protection.  相似文献   

7.
The seismic hazard of research area is evaluated by probabilistic analysis method for three different seismic statistical zone scenarios.The influence of uncertainty in seismic statistical zone delimiting on the evaluation result is discussed too.It can be seen that for those local sites along zone‘s border or within areas with vast change of upper bound magnitude among different scenarios the influence on seismic hazard result should not be neglected.  相似文献   

8.
（陈锦标，沈萍，郑治真）Ａｐｐｌｉｃａｔｉｏｎｏｆｄｉｇｉｔａｌｉｍａｇｅｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｉｎｇｔｏｔｈｅｄｅｔｅｒｍｉｎａｔｉｏｎｏｆｓｐａｔｉａｌｄｉｓｔｒｉｂｕｔｉｏｎｏｆｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓ￥Ｊｉｎ－ＢｉａｏＣＨＥＮ；ＰｉｎｇＳＨＥＮａｎｄＺ...  相似文献   

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Estimation of seismic hazard for the fast developing coastal area of Pakistan is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. On the basis of seismotectonics and geology, eleven faults are recognized in five seismic provinces as potential hazard sources. Maximum magnitude potential for each of these sources is calculated. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values at the seven coastal cities due to the maximum credible earthquake on the relevant source are also obtained. Cities of Gwadar and Ormara with acceleration values of 0.21g and 0.25g respec-tively fall in the high seismic risk area. Cities of Turbat and Karachi lie in low seismic risk area with acceleration values of less than 0.1g. The Probabilistic PGA maps with contour interval of 0.05g for 50 and 100 years return period with 90% probability of non-exceedance are also compiled.  相似文献   

10.
Current practice uses predictive models to extrapolate long-period response spectra based on far-field recordings in moderate and weak earthquakes. However, the spectra are not long enough and the data are often not reliable, which means that the seismic design code cannot accurately define seismic design requirements for long-period structures. The near-field recordings in the main-shock of the Chi-Chi earthquake have a large signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), which makes them suitable for studying the long-period acceleration response spectrum up to 20 sec. The acceleration response spectra from 246 stations within 120 km of the causative fault are statistically analyzed in this paper. The influence of distance and site conditions on long-period response spectrum is discussed, and the shapes of the amplification spectra are compared with the standard spectra specified in the seismic design code of China. Finally, suggestions for future revisions to the code are proposed.  相似文献   

11.
Nuées ardentes associated with dome collapse on 22 November 1994, at Merapi volcano traveled to the south–southwest as far as 6.5 km, and collectively accumulated roughly 2.5–3 million cubic meters of deposits. The damaged area comprises 9.5 km2 and is covered by two nuée ardente facies, a conventional “Merapi-type”, valley-fill block-and-ash flow facies and a pyroclastic surge facies. The proximal deposits reflect the accumulation of dozens of nuées ardentes, with many subsidiary flow units. The distal deposits are more simply organized, as only a few individual events reached to distances >3.5 km. The stratigraphic relationships north of Turgo hill indicate that the surge deposits are a facies of particularly mobile nuées ardentes that also deposited channeled block-and-ash flow facies. They further suggest that the surge facies beyond the channel margins correlate laterally with a finer-grained sublayer locally developed at the base of the block-and-ash flow facies. Eyewitness reports suggest that the emplacement of the block-and-ash flow facies in the distal part of the Boyong river may have followed, by a short time interval, the destruction and deposition of the surge facies at Turgo village. The stratigraphy is in accord with the eyewitness reports. The surge facies was emplaced by a dilute surge current, detached from the same dome-collapse nuée ardente that, as a separate flow unit, subsequently emplaced the distal block-and-ash deposit in the Boyong valley. The detachment occurred at higher elevations, likely at or above the slope break at about 2000 m elevation. This flow separation enabled the surge current to shortcut over the landscape and to emplace its deposit even as the block-and-ash flow continued its tortuous southward movement in the Boyong channel. Dome-collapse nuée ardente activity formed the bulk of the eruption, which was accompanied by virtually no significant vertical summit explosive activity.  相似文献   

12.
The 1998 block-and-ash flow (BAF) deposits on the western flanks of Merapi were described both immediately following emplacement, and after one and two wet seasons of erosion. This afforded a unique combination of data on deposit morphology and internal structure from proximal to distal reaches. The deposits of the basal avalanches from individual BAF events were classified into three major and two minor facies in channelised reaches, primarily resulting from effects of channel confinement and slope. Termination reaches were classified into three facies, related to preevent topography. The deposit facies architecture was interpreted to understand particle transport and deposition within the framework of granular flow systematics.The transport model we propose for these basal avalanches involves unsteady flow conditions, generated by pulses of collapse as the source, and/or by development of kinetic waves during the granular flow. The coarsest clasts along with low-density material migrated to the wave/pulse fronts within these flows. Whereas, in bulk flow, grain dispersive pressures and kinetic sieving result in coarsest clasts being buoyed to the flow top, with this tendency being greatest on higher slopes (=greater kinetic energy) and with greater flow confinement (maximising particle collisions).Deposition begins as the flow reaches near its full extent. An initial pulse or flow wave freezes rapidly from its base upward and its rear forward as it looses kinetic energy and dispersive pressure, such that an upper higher energy part of the flow is still able to move downstream over the frozen base. Later waves or pulses then accrete progressively horizontally upslope banking up onto or overtopping earlier deposited sediment. Hence, the overall flow freezes from its front to its tail. At termination reaches in unconfined areas, the overflowing upper part of flow gradually deposits from its base upward, resulting in a slightly tapering sheet formed deposit, marked by a front made up of wood fragments and large boulders. On sudden slope breaks in termination areas, piling up of sediment occurs in flat reaches, producing whaleback type forms as the flows rapidly lost competence.One implication of this model is that each kinetic wave or flow-pulse crest developed within the basal avalanche represents a portion of greater flow depth (or stage height). Hence, development of these crests control the ability of parts of the basal avalanche to escape from confined channels and generate unexpected hazards.  相似文献   

13.
Valley-fill ignimbrites of the Middle Laacher See Tephra (MLST) in the proximal depositional fan south of Laacher See volcano are laterally continuous with fine-grained overbank-facies deposits, 0.5–1.5 m thick, covering higher elevations and interfluves between the paleovalleys. The overbank deposits consist of up to 12 ash layers, each 4–10 cm thick, which show internal structures typical of ash-flow transport, such as poor sorting, reverse size-grading of pumice, local normal grading of coarse ash-sized lithics above a fine-grained basal layer, cross-stratification behind obstacles, and erosional unconformities. Thickness, median grain-size, and number of individual layers decrease systematically with distance from the vent. Overbank ash layers thicken at the valley slopes and form discrete valley-fill ignimbrite flow units in the paleochannels with median grain size increasing from 63 m to 350 m. Toward the center of paleochannels, however, the well-defined overbank facies is obscured by mutual erosion of individual flow units. Overlapping data fields in ternary grain-size variation diagrams indicate the overbank facies to have evolved from ash flows chiefly through depletion of lapilli and coarse ash. Overbank-facies ash layers do not represent dust layers resulting from elutriation clouds of ash flows (co-ignimbrite ash) or surge deposits developed on higher ground due to low concentration of solids. They are similar in some parameters to Taupo-type ignimbrite veneer deposits, but are interpreted differently. The thin, fine-grained, Laacher See ash layers are thought to have been deposited from diluted portions of the flow proceeding directly from the eruption column while the main pyroclastic flows were confined to the paleovalleys radiating away from the eruptive center. The wide distribution of the thin ash layers is attributed to the balance of deposition from various flow parts and turbulent entraining and heating of ambient air that sustained sufficient mobility of the diluted flows to spread across hills and level ground.  相似文献   

14.
The 18–24 January 1913 eruption of Colima Volcano consisted of three eruptive phases that produced a complex sequence of tephra fall, pyroclastic surges and pyroclastic flows, with a total volume of 1.1 km3 (0.31 km3 DRE). Among these events, the pyroclastic flows are most interesting because their generation mechanisms changed with time. They started with gravitanional dome collapse (block-and-ash flow deposits, Merapi-type), changed to dome collapse triggered by a Vulcanian explosion (block-and-ash flow deposits, Soufrière-type), then ended with the partial collapse of a Plinian column (ash-flow deposits rich in pumice or scoria,). The best exposures of these deposits occur in the southern gullies of the volcano where Heim Coefficients (H/L) were obtained for the various types of flows. Average H/L values of these deposits varied from 0.40 for the Merapi-type (similar to the block-and-ash flow deposits produced during the 1991 and 1994 eruptions), 0.26 for the Soufrière-type events, and 0.17–0.26 for the column collapse ash flows. Additionally, the information of 1991, 1994 and 1998–1999 pyroclastic flow events was used to delimit hazard zones. In order to reconstruct the paths, velocities, and extents of the 20th Century pyroclastic flows, a series of computer simulations were conducted using the program FLOW3D with appropriate Heim coefficients and apparent viscosities. The model results provide a basis for estimating the areas and levels of hazard that could be associated with the next probable worst-case scenario eruption of the volcano. Three areas were traced according to the degree of hazard and pyroclastic flow type recurrence through time. Zone 1 has the largest probability to be reached by short runout (<5 km) Merapi and Soufrière pyroclastic flows, that have occurred every 3 years during the last decade. Zone 2 might be affected by Soufriere-type pyroclastic flows (∼9 km long) similar to those produced during phase II of the 1913 eruption. Zone 3 will only be affected by pyroclastic flows (∼15 km long) formed by the collapse of a Plinian eruptive column, like that of the 1913 climactic eruption. Today, an eruption of the same magnitude as that of 1913 would affect about 15,000 inhabitants of small villages, ranches and towns located within 15 km south of the volcano. Such towns include Yerbabuena, and Becerrera in the State of Colima, and Tonila, San Marcos, Cofradia, and Juan Barragán in the State of Jalisco.  相似文献   

15.
Large-scale collapse of a dacite dome in the late afternoon of 15 September 1991 generated a series of pyroclastic-flow events at Unzen Volcano. Pyroclastic flows with a volume of 1×106 m3 (as DRE) descended the northeastern slope of the volcano, changing their courses to the southeast due to topographic control. After they exited a narrow gorge, an ash-cloud surge rushed straight ahead, detaching the main body of the flow that turned and followed the topographic lows to the east. The surge swept the Kita-Kamikoba area, which had been devastated by the previous pyroclastic-flow events, and transported a car as far as 120 m. Following detachment, the surge lost its force after it moved several hundred meters, but maintained a high temperature. The deposits consist of a bottom layer of better-sorted ash (unit 1), a thick layer of block and ash (unit 2), and a thin top layer of fall-out ash (unit 3). Unit 2 overlies unit 1 with an erosional contact. The upper part of unit 2 grades into better-sorted ash. At distal block-and-ash flow deposits, the bottom part of unit 2 also consists of better-sorted ash, and the contact with the unit 1 deposits becomes ambiguous. Video footage of cascading pyroclastic flows during the 1991–1995 eruption, traveling over surfaces without any topographic barriers, revealed that lobes of ash cloud protruded intermittently from the moving head and sides, and that these lobes surged ahead on the ground surface. This fact, together with the inspection by helicopter shortly after the events, suggests that the protruded lobes consisted of better-sorted ash, and resulted in the deposits of unit 1. The highest ash-cloud plume at the Oshigadani valley exit, and the thickest deposition of fall-out ash over Kita-Kamikoba and Ohnokoba, indicate that abundant ash was also produced when the flow passed through a narrow gorge. In the model presented here, the ash clouds from the pyroclastic flows were composed of a basal turbulent current of high concentration (main body), an overriding and intermediate fluidization zone, and an overlying dilute cloud. Release of pressurized gas in lava block pores, due to collisions among blocks and the resulting upward current, caused a zone of fluidization just above the main body. The mixture of gas and ash sorted in the fluidization zone moved ahead and to the side of the main body as a gravitational current, where the ash was deposited as surge deposits. The main body, which had high internal friction and shear near its base, then overran the surge deposits, partially eroding them. When the upward current of gas (fluidization) waned, better-sorted ash suspended in the fluidization zone was deposited on block-and-ash deposits. In the distal places of block-and-ash deposits, unit 2 probably was deposited in non-turbulent fashion without any erosion of the underlying layer (unit 1).  相似文献   

16.
Fuji volcano is the largest active volcano in Japan, and consists of Ko-Fuji and Shin-Fuji volcanoes. Although basaltic in composition, small-volume pyroclastic flows have been repeatedly generated during the Younger stage of Shin-Fuji volcano. Deposits of those pyroclastic flows have been identified along multiple drainage valleys on the western flanks between 1,300 and 2,000 m a.s.l., and have been stratigraphically divided into the Shin-Fuji Younger pyroclastic flows (SYP) 1 to 4. Downstream debris flow deposits are found which contain abundant material derived from the pyroclastic flow deposits. The new14C ages for SYP1 to SYP4 are 3.2, 3.0, 2.9, and 2.5 ka, respectively, and correspond to a period where explosive summit eruptions generated many scoria fall deposits mostly toward the east. The SYP1 to SYP4 deposits consist of two facies: the massive facies is about 2 m thick and contains basaltic bombs of less than 50 cm in size, scoria lapilli, and fresh lithic basalt fragments supported in an ash matrix; the surge facies is represented by beds 1 to 15 cm thick, consisting mainly of ash with minor amount of fine lapilli. The bombs and scoria are 15 to 30% in volume within the massive facies. The ashes within the SYP deposits consist largely of comminuted basalt lithics and crystals that are derived from the Middle-stage lava flows exposed at the western flanks. SYP1 to SYP4 were only dispersed down the western flanks. The reason for this one-sided distribution is the asymmetric topography of the edifice; the western slopes of the volcano are the steepest (over 34 degrees). Most pyroclastic materials cannot rest stably on the slopes steeper than 33 degrees. Therefore, ejecta from the explosive summit eruptions that fell on the steep slopes tumbled down the slopes and were remobilized as high-temperature granular flows. These flows consisted of large pyroclastics and moved as granular avalanches along the valley bottom. Furthermore, the avalanching flows increased in volume by abrasion from the edifice and generated abundant ashes by the collision of clasts. The large amount of the fine material was presumably available within the transport system as the basal avalanches propagated below the angle of repose. Taking the typical kinetic friction coefficient of small pyroclastic flows, such flows could descend the western flanks where scattered houses are below 1,000 m a.s.l. A similar type of pyroclastic flow could result if explosive summit eruptions occur in the future.Editorial responsibility: R Cioni  相似文献   

17.
The Cana Creek Tuff is one of four rhyolitic ignimbrite members of the Late Carboniferous Currabubula Formation, a volcanogenic conglomeratic braidplain sequence exposed along the western margin of the New England Orogen in northeastern New South Wales. The source is not exposed but was probably located tens of kilometres to the west of existing outcrops. The medial to distal parts of the tuff average about 70 m in thickness, are widespread (minimum present area 1400 km2), and comprise a primary pyroclastic facies (ignimbrite, ash-fall tuff) and a redeposited volcaniclastic facies (sandstone, conglomerate). Both facies are composed of differing proportions of crystal fragments (quartz, plagioclase, K-feldspar), pumiceous clasts (pumice, shards, fine ash), and accidental lithics. The eruption responsible for this unit was explosive and of large magnitude (dense rock equivalent volume about 100 km3). That it was also phreatomagmatic in character is proposed on the basis of: the intimate association of primary and redeposited facies; the presence of accretionary lapilli both in ignimbrite and in ash-fall tuff; the fine grain size of juvenile pyroclasts; the low grade of the ignimbrite; and the close similarity in facies, composition and magnitude to the deposits from the 20,000y. B.P. phreatomagmatic eruption at Taupo, New Zealand (the Wairakei and parts of the Hinuera Formations). The eruption began and ended from a vent with excess water available, possibly submersed in a caldera lake, and generated volcaniclastic sheet floods and debris flows. The emplacement of the primary pyroclastic facies is correlated with an intervening stage when the water:magma mass ratio was lower. The deposits from a large-magnitude, phreatomagmatic eruption are predicted to show systematic lateral variations in facies. Primary pyroclastic facies predominate near the source although the preserved stratigraphy is an incomplete record because of widespread contemporaneous erosion. Volcaniclastic facies, redeposited from proximal sites by floods, dominate at medial and distal locations. In areas hundreds of kilometres from the source, the eruption is registered by thin layers of fine-grained airfall ash.  相似文献   

18.
Pyroclastic flows from the 1991 eruption of Unzen volcano,Japan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Pyroclastic flows from Unzen were generated by gravitational collapse of the growing lava dome. As soon as the parental lobe failed at the edge of the dome, spontaneous shattering of lava occurred and induced a gravity flow of blocks and finer debris. The flows had a overhanging, tongue-like head and cone- or rollershaped vortices expanding outward and upward. Most of the flows traveled from 1 to 3 km, but some flows reached more than 4 km, burning houses and killing people in the evacuated zone of Kita-kamikoba on the eastern foot of the volcano. The velocities of the flows ranged from 15 to 25 m/s on the gentle middle flank. Observations of the flows and their deposits suggest that they consisted of a dense basal avalanche and an overlying turbulent ash cloud. The basal avalanche swept down a topographic low and formed to tongue-like lobe having well-defined levees; it is presumed to have moved as a non-Newtonian fluid. The measured velocities and runout distances of the flows can be matched to a Bingham model for the basal avalanche by the addition of turbulent resistance. The rheologic model parameters for the 29 May flow are as follows: the density is 1300 kg/m3, the yield strength is 850 Pa, the viscosity is 90 Pa s, and the thickness of the avalanche is 2 m. The ash cloud is interpreted as a turbulent mixing layer above the basal avalanche. The buoyant portions of the cloud produced ash-fall deposits, whereas the dense portions moved as a surge separated from the parental avalanche. The ash-cloud surges formed a wide devastated zone covered by very thin debris. The initial velocities of the 3 June surges, when they detached from avalanches, are determined by the runout distance and the angle of the energy-line slope. A comparison between the estimated velocities of the 3 June avalanches and the surges indicates that the surges that extended steep slopes along the avalanche path, detached directly from the turbulent heads of the avalanches. The over-running surge that reached Kita-Kamikoba had an estimated velocity higher than that of the avalanche; this farther-travelled surge is presumed to have been generated by collapse of a rising ash-cloud plume.  相似文献   

19.
El Chichón volcano consists of a 2-km wide Somma crater compound cone 0.2 Ma old with peripheral domes with a central crater reactivated several times during the Holocene. The most recent eruption at El Chichón occurred from March 28 to April 4, 1982, resulting in the worst volcanic disaster during historical times in Mexico, killing more than 2000 people and destroying nine towns and small communities. The volcanic hazard map of El Chichón is based on detailed field work that documented twelve eruptions during the last 8000 years, and computer simulations. To validate the results, computer simulations were first performed over pre-1982 topography mimicking the extent of the actual deposits produced and afterwards run over post-1982 topography. These eruptions have produced pyroclastic fall, surge, flow and lahar deposits. Pyroclastic flows have different volumes and Heim coefficients varying from 0.2 (pumice flows), to 0.15 (block-and-ash flows) and 0.10 (ash flows). Simulations using FLOW3D and TITAN2D indicate that pumice flows and block-and-ash flows can fill the moat area and follow main ravines up to distances of ca. 3 km from the crater, with no effect on populations around the volcano. On the other hand, more mobile ash flows related to column-collapse events can reach up to 4 km from the vent, but will always follow the same paths and still not affect surrounding populations. The energy-cone model was used to simulate the outflow of pyroclastic surges based on the 1982 event (H/L = 0.1 and 0.2), and shows that surges may reach some towns around the volcano.  相似文献   

20.
Facies variations east-northeast of Mount St. Helens preserve a record of depositional processes in the 18 May 1980 lateral blast cloud. This paper reports new field, grain-size and component data from the ENE sector of the timber-blowdown zone and presents a model for blast flow and sedimentation. The first-erupted ejecta was rich in juvenile components and extends to the distal blowdown limit. The last-erupted ejecta was rich in accidental lithics and reached no further than a few kilometres from the mountain due to waning discharge. The blast cloud was a turbulent stratified flow which transported and deposited sediment in the manner of a high-density turbidity current. The possibility that the blast was emplaced as a giant shearing fluidised bed is not favoured by compositional zoning patterns. Depositional conditions were strongly influenced by the rate of suspended-load fallout from the blast. Within about 8 km from vent rapid sedimentation caused deposition under moderate to high concentration conditions and formation of a basal hindered-settling zone able to detach gravitationally and drain into local depressions. The resulting proximal facies resembles a low-aspect-ratio ignimbrite. Fines depletion in the proximal facies is attributed to a combination of residual turbulence and rapid gas escape during particle settling and compaction through the hindered-settling zone. Component data suggest that the blast head played no significant role in the generation of fines depletion in the blast deposit as suggested by previous workers. With increasing distance from vent the rate of particle fallout declined and sedimentation took place under increasingly dilute and tractional conditions, building up antidune-like bedforms. Wavelengths of these bedforms range from 20 to <1 m, and decrease away from vent. There is a systematic relationship between antidune migration direction and depositional slope. The transition from proximal (ignimbrite-like) to distal (surge-like) facies suggests a possible gradation in transport and deposition processes between conventional pyroclastic surges and high-velocity pyroclastic flows.  相似文献   

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