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1.
Abstract

Flood hazard maps were developed using remote sensing (RS) data for the historical event of the 1988 flood with data of elevation height, and geological and physiographic divisions. Flood damage depends on the hydraulic factors which include characteristics of the flood such as the depth of flooding, rate of the rise in water level, propagation of a flood wave, duration and frequency of flooding, sediment load, and timing. In this study flood depth and “flood-affected frequency” within one flood event were considered for the evaluation of flood hazard assessment, where the depth and frequency of the flooding were assumed to be the major determinant in estimating the total damage function. Different combinations of thematic maps among physiography, geology, land cover and elevation were evaluated for flood hazard maps and a best combination for the event of the 1988 flood was proposed. Finally, the flood hazard map for Bangladesh and a flood risk map for the administrative districts of Bangladesh were proposed.  相似文献   

2.
Flood hazard and risk assessment was conducted to identify the priority areas in the southwest region of Bangladesh for flood mitigation. Simulation of flood flow through the Gorai and Arial Khan river system and its floodplains was done by using a hydrodynamic model. After model calibration and verification, the model was used to simulate the flood flow of 100‐year return period for a duration of four months. The maximum flooding depths at different locations in the rivers and floodplains were determined. The process in determining long flooding durations at every grid point in the hydrodynamic model is laborious and time‐consuming. Therefore the flood durations were determined by using satellite images of the observed flood in 1988, which has a return period close to 100 years. Flood hazard assessment was done considering flooding depth and duration. By dividing the study area into smaller land units for hazard assessment, the hazard index and the hazard factor for each land unit for depth and duration of flooding were determined. From the hazard factors of the land units, a flood hazard map, which indicates the locations of different categories of hazard zones, was developed. It was found that 54% of the study area was in the medium hazard zone, 26% in the higher hazard zone and 20% in the lower hazard zone. Due to lack of sufficient flood damage data, flood damage vulnerability is simply considered proportional to population density. The flood risk factor of each land unit was determined as the product of the flood hazard factor and the vulnerability factor. Knowing the flood risk factors for the land units, a flood risk map was developed based on the risk factors. These maps are very useful for the inhabitants and floodplain management authorities to minimize flood damage and loss of human lives. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Flood risk assessment is customarily performed using a design flood. Observed past flows are used to derive a flood frequency curve which forms the basis for a construction of a design flood. The simulation of a distributed model with the 1‐in‐T year design flood as an input gives information on the possible inundation areas, which are used to derive flood risk maps. The procedure is usually performed in a deterministic fashion, and its extension to take into account the design flood‐and flow routing model uncertainties is computer time consuming. In this study we propose a different approach to flood risk assessment which consists of the direct simulation of a distributed flow routing model for an observed series of annual maximum flows and the derivation of maps of probability of inundation of the desired return period directly from the obtained simulations of water levels at the model cross sections through an application of the Flood Level Frequency Analysis. The hydraulic model and water level quantile uncertainties are jointly taken into account in the flood risk uncertainty evaluation using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach. An additional advantage of the proposed approach lies in smaller uncertainty of inundation predictions for long return periods compared to the standard approach. The approach is illustrated using a design flood level and a steady‐state solution of a hydraulic model to derive maps of inundation probabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
The occurrence of natural phenomena such as floods has caused serious consequences for human societies. The simulation of flood hazard maps and its depth in a river is one of the most complex processes in hydrology. In fact both geomorphological and hydraulic procedures for deriving the flood hazard maps and depth are imperfect at watershed scale. In this study, a combination of both procedures, using a probabilistic approach is used. Flood inundation maps for 2-, 10-, 25-,50- and 100-return period floods using flood routine within HEC-RAS in combination of Arc-GIS and topographic wetness index (TWI) map were produced. TWI threshold was identified using a maximum likelihood method in order to produce flood prone areas and calibrated over the reach of Zirab City. The correlation between TWI threshold and the flood depth was carried out and simple linear regression developed for various return periods. The resulting regression model is used in order to create flood hazard maps with various return periods at watershed scale.  相似文献   

5.
The Itajaí River basin is one of the areas most affected by flood-related disasters in Brazil. Flood hazard maps based on digital elevation models (DEM) are an important alternative in the absence of detailed hydrological data and for application in large areas. We developed a flood hazard mapping methodology by combining flow frequency analysis with the Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND) model – f2HAND – and applied it in three municipalities in the Itajaí River basin. The f2HAND performance was evaluated through comparison with observed 2011 flood extent maps. Model performance and sensitivity were tested for different DEM resolutions, return periods and streamflow data from stations located upstream and downstream on the main river. The flood hazard mapping with our combined approach matched 92% of the 2011 flood event. We found that the f2HAND model has low sensitivity to DEM resolution and high sensitivity to area threshold of channel initiation.  相似文献   

6.
The goal of the presented research was the derivation of flood hazard maps, using Monte Carlo simulation of flood propagation at an urban site in the UK, specifically an urban area of the city of Glasgow. A hydrodynamic model describing the propagation of flood waves, based on the De Saint Venant equations in two‐dimensional form capable of accounting for the topographic complexity of the area (preferential outflow paths, buildings, manholes, etc.) and for the characteristics of prevailing imperviousness typical of the urban areas, has been used to derive the hydrodynamic characteristics of flood events (i.e. water depths and flow velocities). The knowledge of the water depth distribution and of the current velocities derived from the propagation model along with the knowledge of the topographic characteristics of the urban area from digital map data allowed for the production of hazard maps based on properly defined hazard indexes. These indexes are evaluated in a probabilistic framework to overcome the classical problem of single deterministic prediction of flood extent for the design event and to introduce the concept of the likelihood of flooding at a given point as the sum of data uncertainty, model structural error and parameterization uncertainty. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Flood modelling inputs used to create flood hazard maps are normally based on the assumption of data stationarity for flood frequency analysis. However, changes in the behaviour of climate systems can lead to nonstationarity in flood series. Here, we develop flood hazard maps for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, under nonstationary conditions using extreme value analysis, a coupled 1D–2D model and high-resolution topographical data derived from LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. Our findings indicate that ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) influence the magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall, while global sea-level rise causes nonstationarity in local sea levels, having an impact on flood risk. The detailed flood hazard maps show that areas of high flood potential are located along river banks, with 0.60 km2 of the study area being unsafe for people, vehicles and buildings (H5 zone) under a 100-year return period scenario.  相似文献   

8.
This paper investigates the development of flood hazard and flood risk delineations that account for uncertainty as improvements to standard floodplain maps for coastal watersheds. Current regulatory floodplain maps for the Gulf Coastal United States present 1% flood hazards as polygon features developed using deterministic, steady‐state models that do not consider data uncertainty or natural variability of input parameters. Using the techniques presented here, a standard binary deterministic floodplain delineation is replaced with a flood inundation map showing the underlying flood hazard structure. Additionally, the hazard uncertainty is further transformed to show flood risk as a spatially distributed probable flood depth using concepts familiar to practicing engineers and software tools accepted and understood by regulators. A case study of the proposed hazard and risk assessment methodology is presented for a Gulf Coast watershed, which suggests that storm duration and stage boundary conditions are important variable parameters, whereas rainfall distribution, storm movement, and roughness coefficients contribute less variability. The floodplain with uncertainty for this coastal watershed showed the highest variability in the tidally influenced reaches and showed little variability in the inland riverine reaches. Additionally, comparison of flood hazard maps to flood risk maps shows that they are not directly correlated, as areas of high hazard do not always represent high risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
ABSTRACT

In this study, a GIS-based integration of multi-criteria analysis and the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) terrain model was adopted to delineate potential flood hazard zones and vulnerability of the Ogun River Basin, Nigeria. Flood causative factors were used as input for multi-criteria analysis using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and weighted overlay in ArcGIS 10.5 to generate potential flood hazard zones. The flood hazard map was overlaid with demographic population data to identify areas where vulnerable people and assets are located. The results show the varying degree of people’s susceptibility to flood hazards. Flood hazard zones were classified into Very High, High, Moderate, Low and Very Low, with area coverage of 1269.40, 14139.50, 7188.40, 17.41 and 0.85 km2, respectively (occupied by 466 290, 355 542, 69 554, 231 and 54 people, respectively). This study serves as a preliminary guide for early warning and policy decision-making for flood disaster risk reduction.  相似文献   

10.
Flooding proves to be the most devastating and annihilating natural hazard in Pakistan. Existing flood management strategies are riveted primarily to the structural measures that contribute limited loss reduction capability at the national level. Non-structural measures are not part of regular practices, as the adopted design standards, which are probabilistic in nature, are unable to assess their feasibilities. An improved risk-based assessment using expected annual damages (EAD) is introduced in this article for the evaluation of combined impacts. EAD treat the probabilistic nature of losses and provide an extended visualization of risk distributions in the form of damage curves and expected annual damages distribution maps. The Chenab River floodplain was selected to study the coalesced response of embankments and flood zoning, preliminary in economic terms. In this regard, the impacts of all likely floods are considered instead of the traditional focus on a single design flood. Damage curves and maps are compiled using estimated losses and probabilities of all floods. Flood zoning for agricultural land is performed. The results support choosing a multidirectional conjunctive approach that considers multiple measures to reduce flood losses. These results can be used as a vital input for the decision-making process.  相似文献   

11.
Flood modelling of urban areas is still at an early stage, partly because until recently topographic data of sufficiently high resolution and accuracy have been lacking in urban areas. However, digital surface models (DSMs) generated from airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR) having sub‐metre spatial resolution have now become available, and these are able to represent the complexities of urban topography. This paper describes the development of a LiDAR post‐processor for urban flood modelling based on the fusion of LiDAR and digital map data. The map data are used in conjunction with LiDAR data to identify different object types in urban areas, though pattern recognition techniques are also employed. Post‐processing produces a digital terrain model (DTM) for use as model bathymetry, and also a friction parameter map for use in estimating spatially distributed friction coefficients. In vegetated areas, friction is estimated from LiDAR‐derived vegetation height, and (unlike most vegetation removal software) the method copes with short vegetation less than ～1 m high, which may occupy a substantial fraction of even an urban floodplain. The DTM and friction parameter map may also be used to help to generate an unstructured mesh of a vegetated urban floodplain for use by a two‐dimensional finite element model. The mesh is decomposed to reflect floodplain features having different frictional properties to their surroundings, including urban features (such as buildings and roads) and taller vegetation features (such as trees and hedges). This allows a more accurate estimation of local friction. The method produces a substantial node density due to the small dimensions of many urban features. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Tools for accurately predicting environmental risks, such as the location and spatial extent of potential inundation, are not widely available. A dependence on calibration and a lack of available flood data have prevented the widespread application of existing hydrodynamic methods for predicting the extent of inundation. We use the height above the nearest drainage (HAND) terrain model to develop a simple static approach for mapping the potential extent of inundation that does not depend on flood observations and extends beyond methods for mapping low‐lying areas. While relying on the contour concept, the method utilizes drainage‐normalized topography and flowpaths to delineate the relative vertical distances (drop) to the nearest river. The HAND‐delineated relative drop is an effective distributed predictor of flood potential, which is directly related to the river stage height. We validated the new HAND contour approach using a flood event in Southern Brazil for which high‐resolution maps were available. The results indicated that the flood hazard‐mapping method accurately predicted the inundation extent of the channel carrying the flood wave and the channels influenced by flooding. For channels positioned outside of the flood‐wave area, the method overestimated the actual flood extent. As an original static assessment of floodwaters across the landscape, the HAND contour method could be used to map flood hazards in areas with poor information and could promote the development of new methods for predicting hydrological hazards. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
In August 2005 severe flood events occurred in the Alps. A sediment routing model for steep torrent channel networks called SETRAC has been applied to six well‐documented case study streams with substantial sediment transport in Austria and Switzerland. For these streams information on the sediment budget along the main channel is available. Flood hydrographs were reconstructed based on precipitation data and stream gauges in neighbouring catchments. Different scenarios are modelled and discussed regarding sediment availability and the effect of armouring and macro‐roughness on sediment transport calculations. The simulation results show the importance of considering increased flow resistance for small relative flow depth when modelling bedload transport during high‐intensity flood events in torrents and mountain rivers. Without any correction of increased flow resistance using a reduced energy slope, the predicted bedload volumes are about a factor of 10 higher on average than the observed values. Simulation results were also used for a back‐calculation of macro‐roughness effects from bedload transport data, and compared with an independent estimate of flow resistance partitioning based on flow resistance data. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Flood hydrographs from ephemeral streams in arid areas provide valuable information for assessing run‐off and groundwater recharge. However, such data are often scarce or incomplete, especially in hyper‐arid regions. The hypothesis of this study was that it is possible to reconstruct a hydrograph of a specific point along an ephemeral stream with the knowledge of only the peak flow rate of a flood event at that point and that this can be done at almost every point along the stream. The feasibility of this approach lies in the shape of the recession stage of the flood hydrograph, which is known to be a repeating phenomenon. The recession stage comes immediately after the peak flow rate, when it begins its decline, and lasts until the flood is extinguished. A general shape of the flood recession stage can be provided. Because the recession stage represents ~80% of the duration of a flood event, it can provide a general idea of the flood hydrograph's shape. A simple model based on geometric progression is suggested to describe the repeating recession stage of a flood. The advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only one parameter: the recession characteristic at a fixed point along the ephemeral stream, termed recession coefficient q. By knowing the recession coefficient of a fixed point and the peak flow rate of a flood event at that point, one can plot the flood hydrograph. A good agreement is shown between the observed and computed values of the recession stage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
The impact of uncertainty in ground elevation on the extent of areas that are inundated due to flooding is investigated. Land surface is represented through a Digital Surface Model (DSM). The effect of uncertainty in DSM is compared to that of the uncertainty due to rainfall. The Monte Carlo method is used to quantify the uncertainty. A typical photogrammetric procedure and conventional maps are used to obtain a reference DSM, later altered to provide DSMs of lower accuracy. Also, data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission are used. Floods are simulated in two stages. In the first stage, flood hydrographs for typical return periods are synthesized using generated storm hyetographs, the Soil Conservation Service–Curve Number method for effective rainfall, and the Soil Conservation Service synthetic unit hydrograph. In the second stage, hydrographs are routed via a one‐dimensional hydraulic model. Uncertainty in DSM is considered only in the second stage. Data from two real‐world basins in Greece are used. To characterize the inundated area, we employ the 90% quantile of the inundation extent and inundation topwidth for peak water level at specific river cross‐sections. For topwidths, apart from point estimates, also interval estimates are acquired using the bootstrap method. The effect of DSM uncertainty is compared to that for rainfall. Low uncertainty in DSM is found to widen the inundated area; whereas, the opposite occurred with high uncertainty. SRTM data proved unsuitable for our test basins and modelling context.  相似文献   

16.
Most road‐stream crossings over ephemeral channels are vulnerable to extreme hydrologic events. Ford stream crossings (FSCs) are usually dangerous for the road traffic during periods of high flow, in particular under flash flood conditions. The present paper analyzes the flood hazards on the Mediterranean coast in the Region of Murcia (south‐east Spain), affecting this type of road‐stream crossing over dry channels, according to hydraulic variables and bedload transport rates estimated for discharges at bankfull and flood‐prone stages. Under such conditions, the safety of people and vehicles was obtained using numerical models, developed by previous researchers; in particular, water levels and flow velocities across ford reaches were compared with different trend curves between water depths and corresponding critical velocities for children and adults, and for various prototype vehicles. Specifically, two approaches to assess this type of hazards were proposed: a specific Hydraulic Hazard Index and an algorithm for estimating the flood hazard from criteria of bed stability and bedload transport capacity (Flood Hazard at Fords, FHF). In addition, different exposure levels were established, using a Flood Vulnerability Index, based on the FHF, the road category, and the annual average daily traffic. The FHF model gave the best results with regard to the magnitude of the damage observed in recent flash floods for flow stages similar to those simulated. According to the danger thresholds established for this index, half‐bankfull flows represent here a high risk: 27.3% of FSCs for mini‐cars and 18.2% for large cars. At bankfull, the FHF exhibits very high values for mini‐cars (77.3% of FSCs) and for large passenger vehicles (50% of FSCs), while at the floodprone stage, extreme FHF values are reached for all kinds of vehicles at most of the ford crossings.  相似文献   

17.
Previously we have detailed an application of the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) procedure to estimate spatially distributed uncertainty in models conditioned against binary pattern data contained in flood inundation maps. This method was applied to two sites where a single consistent synoptic image of inundation extent was available to test the simulation performance of the method. In this paper, we extend this to examine the predictive performance of the method for a reach of the River Severn, west‐central England. Uniquely for this reach, consistent inundation images of two major floods have been acquired from spaceborne synthetic aperture radars, as well as a high‐resolution digital elevation model derived using laser altimetry. These data thus allow rigorous split sample testing of the previous GLUE application. To achieve this, Monte Carlo analyses of parameter uncertainty within the GLUE framework are conducted for a typical hydraulic model applied to each flood event. The best 10% of parameter sets identified in each analysis are then used to map uncertainty in flood extent predictions using the method previously proposed for both an independent validation data set and a design flood. Finally, methods for combining the likelihood information derived from each Monte Carlo ensemble are examined to determine whether this has the potential to reduce uncertainty in spatially distributed measures of flood risk for a design flood. The results show that for this reach and these events, the method previously established is able to produce sharply defined flood risk maps that compare well with observed inundation extent. More generally, we show that even single, poor‐quality inundation extent images are useful in constraining hydraulic model calibrations and that values of effective friction parameters are broadly stationary between the two events simulated, most probably reflecting their similar hydraulics. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
In this paper a new procedure to derive flood hazard maps incorporating uncertainty concepts is presented. The layout of the procedure can be resumed as follows: (1) stochastic input of flood hydrograph modelled through a direct Monte-Carlo simulation based on flood recorded data. Generation of flood peaks and flow volumes has been obtained via copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved. The shape of hydrograph has been generated on the basis of a historical significant flood events, via cluster analysis; (2) modelling of flood propagation using a hyperbolic finite element model based on the DSV equations; (3) definition of global hazard indexes based on hydro-dynamic variables (i.e., water depth and flow velocities). The GLUE methodology has been applied in order to account for parameter uncertainty. The procedure has been tested on a flood prone area located in the southern part of Sicily, Italy. Three hazard maps have been obtained and then compared.  相似文献   

19.
L. Brocca  F. Melone  T. Moramarco 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2801-2813
Nowadays, in the scientific literature many rainfall‐runoff (RR) models are available ranging from simpler ones, with a limited number of parameters, to highly complex ones, with many parameters. Therefore, the selection of the best structure and parameterisation for a model is not straightforward as it is dependent on a number of factors: climatic conditions, catchment characteristics, temporal and spatial resolution, model objectives, etc. In this study, the structure of a continuous semi‐distributed RR model, named MISDc (‘Modello Idrologico Semi‐Distribuito in continuo’) developed for flood simulation in the Upper Tiber River (central Italy) is presented. Most notably, the methodology employed to detect the more relevant processes involved in the modelling of high floods, and hence, to build the model structure and its parameters, is developed. For this purpose, an intense activity of monitoring soil moisture and runoff in experimental catchments was carried out allowing to derive a parsimonious and reliable continuous RR model operating at an hourly (or smaller) time scale. Specifically, in order to determine the catchment hydrological response, the important role of the antecedent wetness conditions is emphasized. The application of MISDc both for design flood estimation and for flood forecasting is reported here demonstrating its reliability and also its computational efficiency, another important factor in hydrological practice. As far as the flood forecasting applications are concerned, only the accuracy of the model in reproducing discharge hydrographs by assuming rainfall correctly known throughout the event is investigated indepth. In particular, the MISDc has been implemented in the framework of Civil Protection activities for the Upper Tiber River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Development of design flood hydrographs using probability density functions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to fit the shape of hydrographs and have been popularly used for the development of synthetic unit hydrographs by many hydrologists. Nevertheless, modelling the shapes of continuous stream flow hydrographs, which are probabilistic in nature, is rare. In the present study, a novel approach was followed to model the shape of stream flow hydrographs using PDF and subsequently to develop design flood hydrographs for various return periods. Four continuous PDFs, namely, two parameter Beta, Weibull, Gamma and Lognormal, were employed to fit the shape of the hydrographs of 22 years at a site of Brahmani River in eastern India. The shapes of the observed and PDF fitted hydrographs were compared and root mean square errors, error of peak discharge (EQP) and error of time to peak (ETP) were computed. The best‐fitted shape and scale parameters of all PDFs were subjected to frequency analysis and the quartiles corresponding to 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year were estimated. The estimated parameters of each return period were used to develop the flood hydrographs for 20‐, 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The peak discharges of the developed design flood hydrographs were compared with the design discharges estimated from the frequency analysis of 22 years of annual peak discharges at that site. Lognormal‐produced peak discharge was very close to the estimated design discharge in case of 20‐year flood hydrograph. On the other hand, peak discharge obtained using the Weibull PDF had close agreement with the estimated design discharge obtained from frequency analysis in case of 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods. The ranking of the PDFs based on estimation of peak of design flood hydrograph for 50‐, 100‐ and 200‐year return periods was found to have the following order: Weibull > Beta > Lognormal > Gamma. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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