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地震短期预测的概率方法浅议 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7
和天气预报相比,地震预测,特别是地震的短临预测更为困难。概率方法真实地反映了地震发生的随机性,真实地反映了人类对于地震认识的局限性,加快短期预测的概率方法研究与应用是十分必要的。概率预测是经验预测、统计预测和物理预测的综合,各类地震预测方法特别是物理预测方法的发展还很不充分,目前仍处于探索阶段。从目前我国地震预测的现状来看,应大力发展统计预测方法。地震目录可为我们提供对背景地震发生率的估计,而前兆的出现使我们可以得到地震发生率大大高于背景发生率的时段,其增益越强,时段越短,越接近于理想预测。前兆和地震之间的关系的统计检验对于概率预测起着十分重要的作用。该文提出,应按实用化的要求逐步规范各种地震预测方法。这对地震预测研究的健康发展是至关重要的。 相似文献
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在前人提出的地震预测方法基础上提出一种地震学综合预测方法。首先利用动态图像方法(地震条带与地震空区)大致确定潜在地震危险区;然后利用中、强地震产生的库仑应力确定孕震区;最后利用地震矩快速释放模型和相关长度增长模型判断孕震区是否进入短临状态。在地震三要素预测中,发挥地震学典型预测方法的优势,并且对相关性较小的预测方法的预测结论相互对比、印证,以便得出更可靠的预测结果。文中还利用这种综合预测方法对1983年菏泽5.9级做了简略研究,结果表明这种综合预测方法的预测结果和菏泽地震基本上是一致的。 相似文献
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在水库地震预测中首次引进了地震概率增益综合预测模型,叙述了该方法的基本原理;探讨了影响水库地震最大震级发生的因素;结合中国水库及其水库地震震例资料,对水库地震综合影响因素E值、库容、库水深度因素或指标预测水库地震最大震级的效能R值和经验概率增益K值进行了统计和评价,表明概率增益综合预测能够对各种预测方法预测水库地震的效果进行定量分析。在此基础上,选择国内外若干水库进行了水库地震最大震级回溯性检验,表明该方法作为一种新的水库地震最大震级预测方法是可行的 相似文献
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《地球物理学进展》2017,(6)
利用地震勘探技术预测页岩储层的可压裂性,是目前页岩气勘探开发领域亟须解决的关键问题之一.本文介绍了近年国内外页岩储层可压裂性地震预测方法相关新进展,主要包括页岩可压裂性岩石物理分析、页岩储层裂缝、脆性和地应力地震预测方法等方面.通过调研可知利用叠前地震资料基于方位各向异性预测裂缝和地应力是目前主要技术,未来,解释人员可综合利用标准的反射成像和绕射成像进行裂缝解释.利用地震资料预测页岩岩石脆性的主要方法有以叠前弹性参数同时反演为核心的地震预测技术、地震属性Eρ预测岩石脆性和λρ-μρ模板预测脆性,根据研究区地震资料的偏移距选择恰当的方法进行岩石脆性预测.最终,本文探讨了页岩可压裂性地震预测进一步发展建议. 相似文献
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《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,(9)
正SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in 相似文献
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《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,(12)
正SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in both basic and applied research. 相似文献
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In natural waters arsenic concentrations up to a few milligrams per litre were measured. The natural content of arsenic found in soils varies between 0.01 mg/kg and a few hundred milligrams per kilogram. Anthropogenic sources of arsenic in the environment are the smelting of ores, the burning of coal, and the use of arsenic compounds in many products and production processes in the past. A lot of arsenic compounds are toxic and cause acute and chronic poisoning. In aqueous environment the inorganic arsenic species arsenite (As(III)) and arsenate (As(V)) are the most abundant species. The mobility of these species is influenced by the pH value, the redox potential, and the presence of adsorbents such as oxides and hydroxides of Fe(III), Al(III), Mn(III/IV), humic substances, and clay minerals. 相似文献
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Due to deleterious effects on non-target organisms, the use of organotin compounds on boat hulls of small vessels (<25 m) has been widely prohibited. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) resolved that the complete prohibition on organotin compounds acting as biocides in antifouling systems should commence in 2008. As a result of restrictions on the use of organotin based paints, other antifouling formulations containing organic biocides have been utilised. This survey was conducted to assess the contamination of replacement biocides in the marine environment following the ban of TBT-based paints. Surface sediments samples were collected in the major ports and marinas along the France Mediterranean coastline (Cote d’Azur) and analysed for organotin compounds, Irgarol 1051, Sea-nine 211TM, Chlorothalonil, Dichlofluanid and Folpet. Every port and marina exhibited high levels of organotin compounds, with concentrations in sediments ranging from 37 ng Sn g−1dry wt in Menton Garavan to over 4000 ng Sn g−1dry wt close to the ship chandler within the port of Villefranche-sur-Mer. TBT degradation indexes suggested that fresh inputs are still made. Among the other antifoulants monitored, only Irgarol 1051 exhibited measurable concentrations in almost every port, with concentrations ranging from 40 ng g−1dry wt (Cannes) to almost 700 ng g−1dry wt (Villefranche-sur-Mer, ship chandler). 相似文献
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Ian R. Falconer 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2005,33(1):64-71
Microcystins are cyclic heptapeptide toxins produced by a range of cyanobacterial genera. These cyanobacteria occur naturally in drinking water reservoirs subject to eutrophication, and in rivers and natural lakes. Because of the diversity of organisms, the toxins occur, from oligo‐mesotrophic lakes in North Temperate latitudes, to hypertrophic tropical ponds. The toxins are responsible for numerous cases of injury and death of domestic animals, and human poisoning from drinking water. The initial poisoning includes hepatic cell death. This leads to secondary effects from liver deficiency, including jaundice and photosensitisation. The toxic effects are largely due to inhibition of phosphatase enzymes, acting to regulate protein phosphorylation. The consequences include structural damage, apoptosis and, at lower concentrations, cell cycle effects and tumour promotion. As there is no clear evidence for direct carcinogenesis by microcystins, they are classed as non‐carcinogenic toxins in drinking water. Guideline Values for safe drinking water are derived from data for subchronic rodent toxicity, using the No Observed Adverse Effect Level (the highest dose giving no toxicity). To this dose are applied uncertainty factors, to calculate a Tolerable Daily Intake. On the basis of a standard bodyweight and water consumption the Guideline Value is determined for drinking water. For microcystin‐LR the WHO have set a provisional Guideline Value of 1 μg/L for drinking water. 相似文献
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The geomagnetic field and secular variation exhibit asymmetrical spatial features which are possibly originating from an heterogeneous thermal control of the Earth's lower mantle on the core. The identification of this control in magnetic data is subject to several difficulties, some of which can be alleviated by the use of core surface flow models. Using numerical dynamos driven by heterogeneous boundary heat flux, we confirm that within the parameter space accessible to simulations, time average surface flows obey a simple thermal wind equilibrium between the Coriolis and buoyancy forces, the Lorentz, inertial and viscous forces playing only a secondary role, even for Elsasser numbers significantly larger than 1. Furthermore, we average the models over the duration of three vortex turnovers, and correlate them with a longer time average which fully reveals the signature of boundary heterogeneity. This allows us to quantify the possibility of observing mantle control in core surface flows averaged over a short time period. A scaling analysis is performed in order to apply the results to the Earth's core. We find that three vortex turnovers could represent between 100 and 360 years of Earth time, and that the heat flux heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary could be large enough to yield an observable signature of thermal mantle control in a time average core surface flow within reach of the available geomagnetic data. 相似文献
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Richard McCreary John McGaughey Yves Potvin Dave Ecobichon Marty Hudyma Harald Kanduth Alain Coulombe 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1992,139(3-4):349-373
Located in northern Québec, the Lac Shortt Mine was a small gold mine consisting of a thin subvertical orebody which was mined in three main phases. High stress and rockbursting conditions were experienced when ore was extracted in the upper zone between the surface and a depth of 500 metres during the first two phases of mining. Severe rockbursts were experienced in late 1989 near the shaft and in the footwall development following a deepening of the mine shaft to a depth of 830 m and partial development of footwall drift access for the third phase of mining (the mining of the lower zone starting at a depth of 830 m moving upward toward a depth of 500 m). A 16-channel Electrolab MP250 microseismic system, with a Queen's University Full-Waveform piggy-back system, was installed underground at the site due to these problems.It was expected that the thinning sill would be subjected to an ever-increasing load as the thickness of the 500 m sill pillar decreased in the face of the mining excavation from below. A monitoring program consisting of the microseismic monitoring system, a range of conventional geomechanics monitoring tools as well as the undertaking of periodic seismic tomography surveys to assess the ongoing state of stress and rock mass condition within the sill was therefore warranted.The anomalously high-magnitude stress field and the brittle rockmass created a situation in which rockmass failure was common and violent. In the creation and thinning of the sill pillar, the location of banded microseismic activity was crucial in tracing rockmass failure and the associated ground control problems. Reliable source-location determination enabled the identification of areas of stress increase. The movement of the rockmass failure front could be followed, and was responsible for stope dilution, footwall and orebody development deterioration, and caving.Source-mechanism analyses gave accurate double-couple solutions for approximately forty percent of these events having at least ten recognizable polarities. Results suggested movement along vertical north-south striking or vertical east-west striking features. Underground observation of damaged access points showed that vertical north-south striking joints were experiencing failure.The microseismic activity, which was consistently concentrated close to the southwest and northeast corners of current production stopes, could be explained by a stress field oriented obliquely to the strike of the orebody, as measured prior to shrinkage of the sill pillar byin situ stress measurements and observed borehole overbreaks. The orientations of theP andT axes for the microseismic activity further confirmed that the stress field oriented obliquely to strike.While an increase in compressional-wave velocity of 2.3 percent, corresponding to a measured stress increase of approximately 10 MPa could be measured by repeated tomographic surveys, it was relatively small and only a factor of two or so above the velocity measured uncertainty. The relative insensitivity of thein situ rock mass modulus to the applied stress is believed to be largely due to the rockmass discontinuities being relatively closed prior to stress increase, as substantiated by the small deformations seen by the extensometer and borehole camera. This situation existed because of the very high pre-mining stress level.The experimental demonstration that the rock could not absorb substantially increased load through the mechanism of discontinuity closure or tightening (which would be reflected in the modulus) may be evidence in itself of potentially burst-prone ground, such as encountered at Lac Shortt. 相似文献
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The inability to detect the presence of viable Helicobacter pylori bacteria in environmental waters has hindered the public health community in assessing the role water may play in the transmission of this pathogen. This work describes a cultural enrichment method coupled with an H. pylori‐specific PCR to identify these bacteria in water. While far from perfected at the present time, this represents an exciting new approach to studying the significance of water as a transmission mechanism for H. pylori. Evidence is presented that indicates culturable H. pylori bacteria were found using this enrichment/PCR method in a local groundwater source. 相似文献
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Response spectrum predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong: rock sites 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
N. T. K. Lam A. M. Chandler J. L. Wilson G. L. Hutchinson 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(1)
To realistically assess the seismic risk relating to built infrastructures in Hong Kong and in the neighbouring coastal cities of southern Guangdong province, it is necessary to predict ground shaking induced by different earthquake scenarios with good accuracy. A companion paper has described the modelling of the spatial and temporal distribution of the diffused seismic activities in the region, based on the newly-developed ‘Expanding Circular Disc’ (ECD) method. Representative Magnitude–Distance (M–R) combinations for both near-field and far-field earthquakes (in relation to Hong Kong) have been derived using the ECD method. The present paper describes the modelling of the response spectrum on rock sites associated with the predicted M–R combinations, using the Component Attenuation Model (CAM) that was also developed recently by the authors, based on stochastic simulations of the seismological model. The significant effects of soil resonance on the response spectrum are described in a separate publication.The accuracy of CAM in modelling ground motion properties on rock sites has been tested here by comparisons with (i) strong motions recorded in Taiwan and South China from the 1999 ‘Chi-Chi’ earthquake in Taiwan (M=7.6), (ii) motions recorded in South China from another earthquake occurring in the southern Taiwan Strait in the same year (M=5.1), and (iii) historical seismic intensity data obtained within South China. The overall capability of CAM in modelling both near-field and far-field attenuation has been shown to be unmatched by existing empirical models. Results of the comparison studies confirm the accuracy of CAM, particularly within an epicentral distance of 300–400 km.This study shows that the developed serviceability response spectra (i.e. at short return periods) are controlled mainly by the earthquake recurrence behaviour of major distant seismic sources. In contrast, the ultimate response spectra (i.e. at long return periods) relate to events with magnitudes close to the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) limit, the effect of which may also be represented by the Characteristic Response Spectrum (CRS). Both types of earthquake scenario can be significantly affected by the regional crustal properties. The proposed response spectrum envelopes have been compared with previously developed recommendations, and a critical review has been conducted. The intrinsic advantages of the ECD–CAM modelling approach have been highlighted, emphasising its directness and transparency when compared with the more complex process required to implement traditional Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). 相似文献