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1.
Baojin Qiao  Liping Zhu 《水文研究》2017,31(15):2752-2763
Most lakes of the Tibetan Plateau were experiencing quick expansion in recent decades; a detailed study on the changes in lakes of different supply types will help to understand the cause of the changes by analysing area change of 34 lakes and water level change of eight lakes in the north‐western Tibetan Plateau. All lakes are classified into three types: non‐glacier‐fed lakes, upstream lakes and glacier‐fed lakes. The glacier‐fed lakes are separated into glacier‐fed_P1 (quick expansion region) and glacier‐fed_P2 (slow expansion region). Combining the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation, less precipitation may be the main reason for lake shrinkage from 1976 to 1996 and quickly increasing precipitation led to the lakes' expansion from 1996 to 2000. However, after 2000, upstream lakes remained in a stable state with slight variation, non‐glacier‐fed lakes and glacier‐fed_P2 lakes exhibited a slightly increasing rate with high precipitation and high evaporation, and glacier‐fed_P1 lakes still expanded quickly. On the basis of the assumption of same precipitation and evaporation, glacial meltwater may make an important contribution (>52%) to the increase in water storage of Bangdag Co and Meima Co. The results suggest that glacial meltwater augments the increased rate of glacier‐fed_P2 lakes and plays a much more important role in the expansion of glacier‐fed_P1 lakes compared to other lakes.  相似文献   

2.
Glacier recessions caused by climate change may uncover pro‐glacial lakes that form important sedimentation basins regulating the downstream sediment delivery. The impact of modern pro‐glacial lakes on fluvial sediment transport from three different Norwegian glaciers: Nigardsbreen, Engabreen and Tunsbergdalsbreen, and their long‐term development has been studied. All of these lakes developed in modern times in overdeepened bedrock basins. The recession of Nigardsbreen uncovered a 1.8 km long and on average 15 m deep pro‐glacial lake basin during 1937 to 1968. Since then the glacier front has been situated entirely on land, and the sediment input and output of the lake has been measured. The suspended sediment transport into and out of the lake averaged 11 730 t yr?1 and 2340 t yr?1 respectively. Thus, 20% remained in suspension at the outlet. The measured mean annual bedload supplied to the lake was 11 800 t yr?1, giving a total transport of 23 530 t yr?1 which corresponds to a specific sediment yield of 561 t km?2 yr?1. A 1.9 km long and up to 90 m deep pro‐glacial lake basin downstream from Engabreen glacier was uncovered during 1890 to 1944. The average suspended sediment load delivered from the glacier during the years 1970–1981 amounted to 12 375 t yr?1and the transport out of the lake was 2021 t yr?1, giving an average of 16% remaining in suspension. The mean annual bedload was 8000 t yr?1, thus the total transport was 20 375 t yr?1, giving a specific sediment yield of 566 t km?2 yr?1. For Tunsbergdalsbreen glacier, measurements in the early 1970s indicated that the suspended sediment transport was on average 44 000 t yr?1. From 1987 to 1993 the recession of the glacier uncovered a small pro‐glacial lake, 0.3 km long and around 9 m deep. Downstream from this, the suspended sediment load measured in 2009 was 28 000 t yr?1, indicating that as much as 64% remained in suspension. Flow velocity, grain size of sediment, and morphology of the lake are important factors controlling the sedimentation rate in the pro‐glacial lakes. A survey of the sub‐glacial morphology of Tunsbergdalsbreen revealed that there are several overdeepened basins beneath the glacier. The largest is 4 km long and 100 m deep. When the glacier melts back they will become lakes and act as sedimentation basins. Despite an expected increase in sediment yield from the glacier, little sediment will pass these lakes and downstream sediment delivery will be reduced markedly. Beneath Nigardsbreen there was only a small depression that may form a lake and the sediment delivery will not be significantly affected. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
本文基于505 景 Landsat 卫星影像,通过自动化冰湖边界提取与人工目视解译相结合的方法调查了 2000 和 2020年中国境内冰湖的分布与变化,并结合 1990 年冰湖编目数据,分析中国冰湖变化特征及影响因素。 研究表明,19902020 年中国冰湖面积增加(180.1±0.1) km2,增加了 17.9%。 其中,冰川补给湖面积扩张最显著,为 22.9%,而非冰川补给湖的面积仅扩张 4.9%。 1990 2020 年冰湖面积在较高海拔带呈现增长快速的趋势,其中,在海拔 5500 m 以上冰湖面积扩张最大,达 30.5%。 在区域尺度,非冰川补给湖的变化主要受降水量和蒸发量变化的影响,其中蒸发量变化对非冰川补给湖更为显著;气温升高与冰川普遍退缩则是导致冰川补给湖普遍快速扩张的主要原因。  相似文献   

4.
冰湖作为区域气候变化的灵敏指示器和主要冰川灾害的启动器,认识其空间分布及变化特征对探讨冰湖对气候变化的响应规律及冰湖溃决危险性评估具有重要意义.基于1968-1980年地形图数据和1994-2016年Landsat TM/OLI遥感影像资料,综合利用RS、GIS技术和数理统计方法分析帕隆藏布流域面积≥ 0.01 km2冰湖时空分布及其动态变化,并对潜在危险性冰湖进行判别和评估.结果表明：2016年帕隆藏布流域共有冰湖351个,面积50.48 km2,且面积和数量分别以面积>1 km2和面积<0.1 km2的冰湖为主,这些冰湖主要分布于海拔2800~5400 m之间.近50年来帕隆藏布流域冰湖总体呈数量增多、面积增加态势;海拔<3000 m的冰湖相对稳定,而海拔>4500 m的冰湖数量和面积增加则相对迅速.近50年间帕隆藏布流域冰川面积减少591.34 km2,气候变暖导致的冰川末端退缩和冰川融水增加为冰湖形成和扩张提供了发育空间和物质来源.切毛措、光谢错等9个冰湖为潜在危险性冰湖,预计未来一段时间内帕隆藏布流域冰湖溃决可能处于活跃阶段,其形成和暴发也将更加频繁.  相似文献   

5.
Outburst floods from glacier‐dammed lakes are major events associated with glacier thinning and volume reduction. This paper investigates jökulhlaups emanating from the glacier‐dammed lake Øvre Messingmalmvatn at Rundvassbreen, an outlet glacier of the Blåmannsisen ice cap in northern Norway. Since 2001, the lake has several times been observed to drain suddenly, causing jökulhlaup outbursts into the pro‐glacial lake Rundvatnet. Varve analysis and lead‐210 (210Pb) dating were used to date sediment cores taken from Rundvatnet. It was found that sedimentation from jökulhlaups is recognizable in the lake as distinct sand layers embedded in the varved silt‐clay sequence which represents the normal lake sedimentation. Sand fractions were carried in suspension because of the extreme hydraulic conditions of jökulhlaups. The thickest sand layer was deposited during the 2001 jökulhlaup which lasted three days and had a total volume of 40 ×106 m3. Jökulhlaups were also recorded in 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2010; they each resulted in a sand layer. Annual sediment accumulation in Rundvatnet increased up to 10‐fold during the years with jökulhlaup outburst floods, from a normal value of 1–2 mm yr?1 to 8–10 mm yr?1. Five other jökulhlaups were identified from the 1910–1930 sedimentation interval, in addition to those observed in 2001–2010; there appear to have been none for 70 years during 1931–2000. Each jökulhlaup was preceded by a period when the glacier thinned to a critical volume and could no longer withstand the hydrostatic pressure of Øvre Messingmalmvatn; consequently a tunnel developed beneath the glacier, leading to a jökulhlaup. Statistical analyses of the correlations between the pro‐glacial sedimentation rate and temperature and precipitation suggested that although climate conditions are expected to influence sedimentation in the pro‐glacial catchment, a host of other interacting factors moderate the availability and delivery of sediment to the pro‐glacial system, making the processes responsible for changes in pro‐glacial sedimentation to remain uncertain. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Glacier retreat results in the formation and expansion, and sometimes outburst, of moraine‐dammed lakes worldwide. Sudden outburst floods from such lakes have caused enormous damage to settlements and infrastructure located downstream. Such lakes located in the Himalayan region are highly prone to outburst floods due to climatic conditions and geotectonic settings. In this study, multi‐temporal Landsat images from 2002–2014, digital elevation models (DEMs), geomorphic analysis and modelling were used to assess the changes in glacial lakes and the outburst susceptibility of moraine‐dammed lakes in the Chandra–Bhaga basin of the north‐western Indian Himalaya. An inventory of lakes was developed using satellite data, thematic maps and ground‐based investigations for the Chandra–Bhaga basin. The total area of all glacial lakes (size >5000 m2) increased by 47% from 2002 to 2014, with a pronounced increase of 57% for moraine‐dammed lakes. Sixteen moraine‐dammed lakes were identified and assessed for outburst susceptibility using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Forty‐one reported glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) events from moraine‐dammed lakes in Himalayan regions were analysed, culminating in the identification of 11 critical factors for assessing outburst susceptibility using the AHP, including those related to the lake area and change, surrounding terrain characteristics, dam geometry, regional seismicity and rainfall history. The past three GLOF events in the Himalayan region were used to validate the method and to classify moraine‐dammed lakes as having very high, high, medium or low outburst susceptibility. Eight lakes classified as very high and high outburst susceptibility should be further investigated in detail. The proposed AHP‐based approach is suitable for first‐order identification of critical lakes for prioritising future detailed investigation and monitoring of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Water source and lake landscape position can strongly influence the physico‐chemical characteristics of flowing waters over space and time. We examined the physico‐chemical heterogeneity in surface waters of an alpine stream‐lake network (>2600 m a.s.l.) in Switzerland. The catchment comprises two basins interspersed with 26 cirque lakes. The larger lakes in each basin are interconnected by streams that converge in a lowermost lake with an outlet stream. The north basin is primarily fed by precipitation and groundwater, whereas the south basin is fed mostly by glacial melt from rock glaciers. Surface flow of the entire channel network contracted by ～60% in early autumn, when snowmelt runoff ceased and cold temperatures reduced glacial outputs, particularly in the south basin. Average water temperatures were ～4 °C cooler in the south basin, and temperatures increased by about 4–6 °C along the longitudinal gradient within each basin. Although overall water conductivity was low (<27 µS cm?1) because of bedrock geology (ortho‐gneiss), the south basin had two times higher conductivity values than the north basin. Phosphate‐phosphorus levels were below analytical detection limits, but particulate phosphorus was about four times higher in the north basin (seasonal average: 9 µg l?1) than in the south basin (seasonal average: 2 µg l?1). Dissolved nitrogen constituents were around two times higher in the south basin than in the north basin, with highest values averaging > 300 µg l?1 (nitrite + nitrate‐nitrogen), whereas particulate nitrogen was approximately nine times greater in the north basin (seasonal average: 97 µg l?1) than in the south basin (seasonal average: 12 µg l?1). Total inorganic carbon was low (usually <0·8 mg l?1), silica was sufficient for algal growth, and particulate organic carbon was 4·5 times higher in the north basin (average: 0·9 mg l?1) than in the south basin (average: 0·2 mg l?1). North‐basin streams showed strong seasonality in turbidity, particulate‐nitrogen and ‐phosphorus, and particulate organic carbon, whereas strong seasonality in south‐basin streams was observed in conductivity and dissolved nitrogen. Lake position influenced the seasonal dynamics in stream temperatures and nutrients, particularly in the groundwater/precipitation‐fed north‐basin network. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Glacier and permafrost hazards such as glacial‐lake outburst floods and rock–ice avalanches cause significant socio‐economic damages worldwide, and these processes may increase in frequency and magnitude if the atmospheric temperature rises. In the extratropical Andes nearly 200 human deaths were linked to these processes during the twentieth century. We analysed bibliographical sources and satellite images to document the glacier and permafrost dynamics that have caused socio‐economic damages in this region in historic time (including glacial lake outburst floods, ice and rock–ice avalanches and lahars) to unravel their causes and geomorphological impacts. In the extratropical Andes, at least 15 ice‐dammed lakes and 16 moraine‐dammed lakes have failed since the eighteenth century, causing dozens of floods. Some floods rank amongst the largest events ever recorded (5000 × 106 m3 and 229 × 106 m3, respectively). Outburst flood frequency has increased in the last three decades, partially as a consequence of long‐term (decades to centuries) climatic changes, glaciers shrinkage, and lake growth. Short‐term (days to weeks) meteorological conditions (i.e. intense and/or prolonged rainfall and high temperature that increased meltwater production) have also triggered outburst floods and mass movements. Enormous mass failures of glaciers and permafrost (> 10 × 106 m3) have impacted lakes, glaciers, and snow‐covered valleys, initiating chain reactions that have ultimately resulted in lake tsunamis and far‐reaching (> 50 km) flows. The eruption of ice‐covered volcanoes has also caused dozens of damaging lahars with volumes up to 45 × 106 m3. Despite the importance of these events, basic information about their occurrence (e.g. date, causes, and geomorphological impact), which is well established in other mountain ranges, is absent in the extratropical Andes. A better knowledge of the processes involved can help to forecast and mitigate these events. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):266-277
Abstract

The White Cordillera (northern Peru), with a glacial surface of 631 km2, is the largest glacierized mountain range in the Tropics. Due to the lack of physical data from most of its sub-basins, it is difficult to build a physical model to estimate the water resource flowing from the glaciers at the present time and a fortiori for the future. The most recent GCM simulations indicate a significant increase in the temperature and an accelerated shrinking of the glaciers. Consequently, we sought a model that would be based on the data available within instrumented sub-basins. A theoretical/conceptual water model makes it possible to quantify the local glacier contribution, which could then be applied to the other non-instrumented sub-basins. A total of 43.6% of Parón Lake's instrumented sub-basin area (47.4 km2) corresponds to glacial surfaces. Within this sub-basin, a smaller watershed (8.8 km2), called Artesón, with 72.9% glacierized area, has been accurately observed over a 5-year hydrological period (September 2000–August 2005). This information allowed us to calibrate the model over the Artesón sub-basin. The parameters obtained were applied to the entire Parón basin using the same modelling approach.  相似文献   

10.
Retreating glaciers give way to new landscapes with lakes as an important element. In this study, we combined available data on lake outlines with historical orthoimagery and glacier outlines for six time periods since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA; ~1850). We generated a glacial lake inventory for modern times (2016) and traced the evolution of glacial lakes that formed in the deglaciated area since the LIA. In this deglaciated area, a total of 1192 lakes formed over the period of almost 170 years, 987 of them still in existence in 2016. Their total water surface in 2016 was 6.22 ± 0.25 km2. The largest lakes are > 0.4 km2 (40 ha) in size, while the majority (> 90%) are smaller than 0.01 km2. Annual increase rates in area and number peaked in 1946–1973, decreased towards the end of the 20th century, and reached a new high in the latest period 2006–2016. For a period of 43 years (1973–2016), we compared modelled overdeepenings from previous studies to actual lake genesis. For a better prioritization of formation probability, we included glacier-morphological criteria such as glacier width and visible crevassing. About 40% of the modelled overdeepened area actually got covered by lakes. The inclusion of morphological aspects clearly aided in defining a lake formation probability to be linked to each modelled overdeepening. Additional morphological variables, namely dam material and type, surface runoff, and freeboard, were compiled for a subset of larger and ice-contact lakes in 2016, constituting a basis for future hazard assessment.  相似文献   

11.
王欣  丁永建  张勇 《湖泊科学》2019,31(3):609-620
冰川融水通过热量、水、物质传输对山地冰冻圈冰湖水文效应产生影响,引起广泛关注.本文从山地冰冻圈冰湖的水量、物理化学性质、生物等方面系统总结冰川融水对冰湖水文效应的影响.冰川融水被冰湖滞留能在一定程度上延缓区域冰川水资源的亏损,但也直接导致了潜在危险性冰湖数量和危险程度增大.冰川融水对冰湖物理性质的影响主要表现在降低湖水温度、影响透明度/浊度、改变湖水密度、造成湖水热力分层现象等方面,对冰湖化学性质的影响主要表现在增加湖水中的氮素、溶解有机物、持久性有机污染物、各类离子和重金属等,进而影响冰湖生物的分布、组成、结构和功能.深入系统地开展冰川融水及其变化对冰湖水文效应研究,对冰川水文与水资源、山地冰冻圈生态环境研究具有重要意义.  相似文献   

12.
Supra‐glacial lakes and ponds can create hotspots of mass loss on debris‐covered glaciers. While much research has been directed at understanding lateral lake expansion, little is known about the rates or processes governing lake deepening. To a large degree, this knowledge gap persists due to sparse observations of lake beds. Here we report on the novel use of ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys to simultaneously collect supra‐glacial lake bathymetry and bottom composition data from Spillway Lake (surface area of 2.4 × 105 m2; volume of 9.5 × 104 m3), which is located in the terminus region of the Ngozumpa Glacier in the Khumbu region of the Nepal Himalaya. We identified two GPR bottom signals corresponding to two sedimentary facies of (1) sub‐horizontal layered fine sediment drape and (2) coarse blocky diamict. We provide an understanding of the changes in subaqueous debris distribution that occur through stages of lake expansion by combining the GPR results with in situ observations of shoreline deposits matching the interpreted facies. From this, we present an updated conceptual model of supra‐glacial lake evolution, with the addition of data on the evolving debris environment, showing how dominant depositional processes can change as lakes evolve from perched lakes to multi‐basin base‐level lakes and finally onto large moraine‐dammed lakes. Throughout lake evolution, processes such as shoreline steepening, lakebed collapse into voids and conduit interception, subaerial and subaqueous calving and rapid areal expansion alter the spatial distribution and makeup of lakebed debris and sediments forcing a number of positive and negative feedbacks on lake expansion. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
On 3 September 1998, a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) that originated from Tam Pokhari occurred in the Hinku valley of the eastern Nepal Himalaya. This study analyses the lake's geomorphic and hydrologic conditions prior to the outburst, and evaluates the conditions that could contribute to a future flood through photogrammetric techniques. We processed high‐resolution Corona KH‐4A (2.7 m) and ALOS PRISM (2.5 m) stereo‐images taken before and after the GLOF event, and produced detailed topographic maps (2‐m contour interval) and DEMs (5 m × 5 m). We (re‐) constructed lake water surfaces before (4410 ± 5 m) and after (4356 ± 5 m) the outburst, and reliably estimated the lake water surface lowering (54 ± 5 m) and the water volume released (19.5 ± 2.2 × 106 m3) from the lake, showing good agreement with the results obtained from ground‐based measurements. The most relevant conditions that may have influenced the catastrophic drainage of Tam Pokhari in 1998 include the presence of: (i) a narrow (75 ± 6 m), steep (up to 50°) and high (120 ± 5 m) moraine dam; (ii) high lake level (8 ± 5 m of freeboard) and (iii) a steep overhanging glacier (>40°). The lake outburst substantially altered the immediate area, creating a low and wide (>500 m) outwash plain below the lake, a wide lake outlet channel (~50 m) and a gentle channel slope (~3–5°). Our new data suggest that the likelihood of a future lake outburst is low. Our results demonstrate that the datasets produced by photogrammetric techniques provide an excellent representation of micro‐landform features on moraine dams, lake water surfaces and the changes in both over time, thereby allowing highly accurate pre‐ and post‐GLOF (volumetric) change analysis of glacial lakes. Furthermore, it enables precise measurement of several predictive variables of GLOFs that can be useful for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes or prioritizing them for detailed field investigations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
近40 a西藏那曲当惹雍错湖泊面积变化遥感分析   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
西藏著名圣湖之一的当惹雍错,是藏北高原腹地内陆封闭大湖,对湖泊面积变化的长时间序列研究较少,本文通过高分辨率陆地资源卫星Landsat TM/ETM+数据源,利用遥感和地理信息系统软件,通过人工目视解译方法对1977-2014年当惹雍错湖泊面积变化进行系统分析,并结合流域临近气象站资料,流域冰川等辅助数据对其湖泊面积变化原因进行综合分析.结果表明,1977-2014年当惹雍错湖泊平均面积为835.75 km~2,1977-2014年湖泊面积总体呈上升趋势,1970s湖泊平均面积为829.15 km~2,1980s和1990s湖泊平均面积分别为827.50和826.42 km~2,2000年之后湖泊面积明显增加,2000s湖泊平均面积与1970s相比,增幅为8.04 km~2.当惹雍错湖泊空间变化特点是,位于最大河流入口处达尔果藏布的湖泊东南部扩大明显,湖泊西南部小湖1于2014年9月开始明显扩大并与当惹雍错有相连趋势;流域冰川融水是当惹雍错主要补给源,近40 a当惹雍错湖泊面积变化是在气温升高的背景下,冰川、降水量和蒸发量三者共同变化作用的结果.  相似文献   

15.
The observed retreat of several Himalayan glaciers and snow packs is a cause of concern for the huge population in southern Asia that is dependent on the glacial‐fed rivers emanating from Himalayas. There is considerable uncertainty about how cryospheric recession in the Himalayan region will respond to climate change, and how the water resource availability will be affected. As a first step towards quantifying the contribution of glacier‐melt water, hydrograph separation of River Ganga at Rishikesh into its constituent components, namely (i) surface runoff, (ii) glacial ice‐melt and (iii) groundwater discharge has been done in this paper. A three‐component mixing model has been employed using the values of δ18O and electrical conductivity (EC) of the river water, and its constituents, to estimate the time‐varying relative fraction of each component. The relative fraction of the surface runoff peaks (70–90%) during winter, due to the near‐zero contribution of glacial ice‐melt, essentially represents the melting of surface snow from the catchment. The contribution of glacial ice‐melt to the stream discharge peaks during summer and monsoon reaches a maximum value of ～40% with an average of 32%. The fraction of groundwater discharge varies within a narrow range (15 ± 5%) throughout the year. On the basis of the variation in the d‐excess values of river water, it is also suggested that the snow‐melt and ice‐melt component has a significant fraction derived from winter precipitation with moisture source from mid‐latitude westerlies (also known as western disturbances). Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
根据1975年地形图、1970s末至2013年19期Landsat（MSS、TM、ETM+）陆地资源卫星和20032009年ICESat卫星数据,以及近40年气象资料,对西藏佩枯错湖泊面积变化进行分析.结果表明,湖泊面积、湖泊高度变化波动较大,均呈减少和退缩趋势.19752013年间湖泊面积减少10.68 km2,减幅为3.79%.从空间动态变化来看,变化较明显的区域位于该湖的南岸和东北岸,南岸、东北岸湖岸线分别向北、向西南萎缩.20032009年湖面高度和湖泊面积均呈现出下降趋势,分别下降了0.17 m和4.4 km2.19992013年之间对该流域湖泊有影响的冰川变化分析显示,冰川呈现出退缩、面积减少趋势.数据显示冰川面积总共减少了17.17 km2,减少率为7.91%.自1971年以来,流域气温总体呈上升趋势,2000年以后升温显著.佩枯错43 a来降水量年际变化波动较大,年降水量呈减少趋势,总的来说降水量每10 a减少6.99 mm.虽然佩枯错属于降水和冰雪融水补给湖泊,但该流域湖面增减与周围冰川变化的关系并不明显,与温度变化呈负相关,而与流域内降水量呈正相关.综合分析表明,佩枯错流域湖泊变化与冰川退缩关系不密切,降水量是湖泊变化的主要原因.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

The hydrological data (since 1953) of the Llanganuco basin (87.0 km2, 39% glacierized) show an increase of the glacial melting during the last quarter of the 20th century. These results were supplemented (since the end of 2000) by the data of the small basin of Artesoncocha (8.4 km2, 79% glacierized). The basin runoff is well correlated to the atmospheric temperature derived from the NOAA-NCEP re-analysis above the Cordillera Blanca. At the monthly time scale, the temperature is a good proxy of the glacier melting. The retreat of several glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca has been well documented for 50 years, highlighting an acceleration of the deglaciation in the mid-1970s. The use of these data of various origins permits one to model the behaviour of glaciers, especially the meltwater production, and then to predict their future evolution. The model was calibrated over the 1950–2000 period, thus providing a possible optimistic evolution range (underestimation if the climate change becomes more intense). The forcing of the model by forecasts of the future temperature evolution above the Cordillera Blanca, derived from the regionalization of global climatic models, allows improvement of the estimations only based on past glacial behaviour.  相似文献   

18.
青藏高原上分布着大量的大陆性冰川,其对区域及全球气候变化响应极其敏感.工业革命以来,随着全球升温速率加快(特别是北半球),青藏高原部分地区的冰川在近百年显著退缩.冰前湖沉积物是最直接的冰川变化记录载体之一,但其沉积速率如何响应冰川及气候变化,能否反演冰川进退过程却知之甚少.本文依据~(210)Pb和~(137)Cs限定藏南冰前湖枪勇错QY5沉积岩芯的年龄,计算出不同深度沉积物的沉积速率,且与前人(QY-3)的沉积速率进行对比,揭示了近百年来枪勇错流域冰川变化历史及其与气温之间的关系.结果表明,枪勇错QY5近百年来的平均沉积速率为0.21 cm/a,比湖心(QY-3)快2倍左右,但两者的变化基本同步,高沉积速率对应温度上升期,是冰川退缩的直接响应:(1)1900—1960年,枪勇错沉积速率整体增加且变幅较大,与1890—1950年之间西藏温度波动式升高相对应,反映枪勇冰川总体处于退缩状态;(2)1960—1985年,沉积速率低且变幅较小,同期气温下降,枪勇冰川退缩程度相对较低且保持平稳;(3)1985年以来,枪勇错沉积速率呈上升趋势,是全球增暖下冰川显著退缩的直接响应.在短时间尺度内冰前湖沉积速率所揭示的枪勇冰川变化主要受控于温度,降水量对冰川变化的影响较小,但冰川对温度变化的响应滞后5～10 a.由于全球变暖和冰川对温度响应的滞后,在未来几十年高原冰川的融化速率可能会加快,亚洲水塔将面临着新的挑战.  相似文献   

19.
Discharge was calculated from a mountainous area, including discharge from glaciers, in the Qilian Shan (Qilian Mountains) of northwest China. The studied Yingluoxia basin is 9983 km2 in area, with glaciers making up 0·3% of the basin. The calculation method was based on the heat balance, requiring only daily temperature and precipitation. Calculated annual discharge from the basin corresponded well with the observed data. Calculated annual discharge from glaciers was 3·6% of the total discharge from the basin. The temporal trend of the calculated equilibrium line altitude (ELA) at the July 1st Glacier (western side of the Yingluoxia basin) was similar to that of the observed ELA. The calculated annual mass balance of glaciers within the Yingluoxia basin has a larger negative value than the other glaciers in China, as the ratio of accumulation area to the total glacier area in the Yingluoxia basin is much lower than in neighbouring basins to the west. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
段水强 《湖泊科学》2018,30(1):256-265
柴达木盆地众多的湖泊不仅对维持当地脆弱的生态环境具有极其重要的作用,而且中心盐湖也是重要的矿产资源.进入21世纪以来,受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,盆地湖泊发生了一系列重大变化.为科学认识这一问题,选取了1976-2015年6期Landsat系列卫星影像,解译了该区域1 km2以上的湖泊水面,并分析了湖泊变化对气候和人类活动的响应.结果表明：柴达木盆地湖泊面积总体上存在扩张（1976-1990年）萎缩（1990-2000年）扩张（2000-2010年）萎缩（2010-2015年）4个阶段的变化过程,2010年湖泊面积最大,2015年湖泊又明显萎缩.就气候水文因素而言,湖泊面积变化主要受山区降水径流的影响.湖面变化与前3 a的降水径流关系最为密切.进入21世纪以来,气候变化与上游社会经济耗水、盐湖周边人为阻隔河湖连通、开采卤水、修建人工盐田、排放老卤等人类活动,对盆地中心湖泊的空间格局、面积都产生了显著影响,苦水沟、达布逊湖南部形成了新湖泊,鸦湖、团结湖面积显著扩大,东、西台吉乃尔湖逐渐萎缩、干涸,一里平湖由以前的干盐湖在2010年一跃成为盆地最大的湖泊.针对盐湖大规模开发产生的负面影响,提出了合理开发盐湖资源的建议.  相似文献   

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