共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 136 毫秒
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地球物理反演是获取地球信息的重要手段,其求解具有严重的不适定性.为获得稳定的反问题结果,通常需要在目标泛函中加入正则化约束项.正确地估计正则化参数一直是地球物理反问题中的难点.目前存在的选取方法需要根据大量的试验来确定正则化参数,工作量十分巨大,并且存在很大的经验性,很难得到最优的正则化参数.针对这个问题,本文提出了一种基于广义Stein无偏风险估计的正则化参数求取方法.该方法的具体思路是通过求解模型参数均方误差的广义Stein无偏风险估计函数,在反问题求解过程中自动求取正则化参数.本文模型测试结果表明,相比于目前常用的方法,通过该方法得到的正则化参数是最优的. 相似文献
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地球物理反问题线性化处理之后, 各种反演算法归结为对病态线性方程组的求解. 为了快速准确地计算出地球物理参数, 本文提出了一种全新的基于LSQR算法的混合差分进化算法(Hybrid Differential Evolution Algorithm, HDE). 该算法利用LSQR算法给出DE算法的初始种群, 提高DE算法的计算速度和稳定性. 在不同噪声水平下, 对四种正则化方法Tikhonov、TSVD、LSQR和HDE的反演结果进行详细比较. 理论模型和实际数据反演的结果都表明: 改进的HDE算法应用于地球物理反问题的求解是成功的: 反演结果与原设定模型具有较高的相关性, 在稳定性和准确性上较常规的反演算法都具有一定的优势; 而且不需要给定正则化参数, 具有更强的实用性. 相似文献
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量子退火最优化方法的思想是基于模拟退火方法发展而来的，但利用的是量子跃迁隧道效应的机制，这和模拟退火基于热力学的退火原理是不一样的.本文首先概述了量子退火和模拟退火的区别所在；其次主要论述了量子退火在最优化方面的应用发展情况，比如伊辛自旋玻璃问题，旅行商问题，布尔可满足性问题等，讨论了具体测试问题中量子退火方法的应用情况以及和模拟退火方法的比较；随后对基于量子退火方法的地球物理反演原理和方法做了相应的阐述，讨论了不同参数比如温度、横向场的设置，比较了处于不同的横向场和势能状态的概率大小问题；最后就量子退火方法在地球物理反问体中的应用前景以及存在的问题做了简要概述. 相似文献
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水体辐射传输方程是复杂的微积分方程,只能利用数值方法求解,如Monte Carlo光线追踪法、不变嵌入法、离散坐标法等,其中,Monte Carlo方法是目前解决水体水下光场三维问题的唯一有效方法.根据辐射传输理论,开发了水下光场的Monte Carlo模拟模型,主要包含大气、水-气界面、层化水体和水底边界4个模块.实现了模拟任意太阳角度、不同水体固有光学属性和任意深度条件下,考虑大气、粗糙水面和水底边界的水下光场,能够获取辐亮度、辐照度等辐射量的空间分布.该模型暂不考虑Raman散射、偏振、内部光源的影响.实现了GPU加速水下光场Monte Carlo模拟,并用Mobley等提出的海洋光学标准问题中的问题1~6进行验证.在两种计算环境下,通过对不同边界条件下的CPU、GPU运行时间及加速比的对比,发现GPU计算可以达到几百至上千倍的加速比. 相似文献
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Fragility curves represent the conditional probability that a structure's response may exceed the performance limit for a given ground motion intensity. Conventional methods for computing building fragilities are either based on statistical extrapolation of detailed analyses on one or two specific buildings or make use of Monte Carlo simulation with these models. However, the Monte Carlo technique usually requires a relatively large number of simulations to obtain a sufficiently reliable estimate of the fragilities, and it is computationally expensive and time consuming to simulate the required thousands of time history analyses. In this paper, high‐dimensional model representation based response surface method together with the Monte Carlo simulation is used to develop the fragility curve, which is then compared with that obtained by using Latin hypercube sampling. It is used to replace the algorithmic performance‐function with an explicit functional relationship, fitting a functional approximation, thereby reducing the number of expensive numerical analyses. After the functional approximation has been made, Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain the fragility curve of the system. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Detection and extraction of quasi-oscillatory dynamical modes from instrumental records of geophysical data became a useful tool in analyzing variability of observed phenomena reflected in complex, multivariate geophysical signals. Using the extension of the Monte Carlo singular system analysis (MC SSA), based on evaluating and testing regularity of dynamics of the SSA modes against the colored noise null hypothesis, we demonstrate detection of oscillatory modes with period of about 96 months in the long-term records of aa index as well as in the records of surface air temperature from several mid-latitude European locations and in the North Atlantic Oscillation index. 相似文献
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Mumby PJ 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,44(1):85-87
The importance of considering statistical power in marine pollution studies is unequivocal. However, the vast majority of ecological literature on power analysis focuses on parametric rather than non-parametric tests. This note describes a Monte Carlo simulation method for estimating the power of non-parametric tests. The method is illustrated using ordinal data. 相似文献
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Lake Tana is the largest fresh water body situated in the north‐western highlands of Ethiopia. In addition to its ecological services, it serves for local transport, electric power generation, fishing, recreational purposes, and source of dry season irrigation water supply. Evidence shows that the lake has dried at least once at about 15,000–17,000 before present owing to a combination of high evaporation and low precipitation events. Past attempts to understand and simulate historical fluctuation of Lake Tana based on simplistic water balance approach of inflow, outflow, and storage have failed to capture well‐known events of drawdown and rise of the lake that have happened in the last 44 years. This study tested different stochastic methods of lake level and volume simulation for supporting Lake Tana operational planning decision support. Three stochastic methods (perturbations approach, Monte Carlo methods, and wavelet analysis) were employed for lake level and volume simulation, and the results were compared with the stage level measurements. Forty‐four years of daily, monthly, and mean annual lake level data have shown a Gaussian variation with goodness of fit at 0.01 significant levels of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The stochastic simulations predicted the lake stage level of the 1972, 1984, and 2002/2003 historical droughts 99% of the time. The information content (frequency) of fluctuation of Lake Tana for various periods was resolved using Wigner's Time‐Frequency Decomposition method. The wavelet analysis agreed with the perturbations and Monte Carlo simulations resolving the time (1970s, 1980s, and 2000s) in which low frequency and high spectral power fluctuation has occurred. The Monte Carlo method has shown its superiority for risk analysis over perturbation and deterministic method whereas wavelet analysis reconstructed historical record of lake stage level at daily and monthly time scales. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Roberta-Serena Blasone Jasper A. Vrugt Henrik Madsen Dan Rosbjerg Bruce A. Robinson George A. Zyvoloski 《Advances in water resources》2008
In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes. 相似文献
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Abstract The water-centric community has continuously made efforts to identify, assess and implement rigorous uncertainty analyses for routine hydrological measurements. This paper reviews some of the most relevant efforts and subsequently demonstrates that the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM) is a good candidate for estimation of uncertainty intervals for hydrometry. The demonstration is made by implementing the GUM to typical hydrometric applications and comparing the analysis results with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method. The results show that hydrological measurements would benefit from the adoption of the GUM as the working standard, because of its soundness, the availability of software for practical implementation and potential for extending the GUM to hydrological/hydraulic numerical simulations. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Muste, M., Lee, K. and Bertrand-Krajewski, J.-L., 2012. Standardized uncertainty analysis for hydrometry: a review of relevant approaches and implementation examples. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 643–667. 相似文献
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Produced water discharge accounts for the greater portion of wastes arising from offshore oil and gas production operations. Development and expansion of Canada’s offshore oil and gas reserves has led to concerns over the potential long-term impacts of produced water discharges to the ocean. To examine this emerging environmental issue at a regional scale, an integrated risk assessment approach was developed in this study based on the princeton ocean model (POM), a random walk (RW) and Monte Carlo simulation. The use of water quality standards arrayed in a Monte Carlo design in the developed approach has served to reflect uncertainties and quantify environmental risks associated with produced water discharge. The model was validated against field data from a platform operating off Canada’s east coast, demonstrating its usefulness in supporting effective management of future produced water discharge. 相似文献