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1.
—The study presents the results of the statistical relationship between seasonal northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu state of India (TNR) and southeast India (SER) and mid-latitude circulation indices viz., zonal index (ZON) meridional index (MER) and the ratio of meridional to zonal index (M/Z) between the geographical area 35°N to 70°N at 500 hPa level over three sectors and hemisphere, based on 19 years (1971–1989) of data. The results indicate that northeast monsoon rainfall over India shows a strong antecedent relationship with the strength of ZON over all the sectors and hemisphere. The best association is observed during antecedent March over sector I (45°W–90°E) where direct and strong correlation coefficients of 0.69 and 0.64 are obtained with TNR and SER, respectively. Antecedent MAM (spring) season over sector I also shows a significant positive correlation with TNR/SER. Thus, the mid-latitude zonal circulation index may have possible use for the long-range forecasting of northeast monsoon rainfall over India. 相似文献
2.
Indian summer monsoon and El Nino 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The associations between strong to moderate El Nino events and the all-India and subdivisional summer monsoon rainfall is
examined for the period 1871 to 1978. The significance of the association is assessed by applying the Chi-square test to the
contingency table.
The analysis indicates that during 22 El Nino years the Indian monsoon rainfall was mostly below normal over most parts of
the country. However, the association between El Nino and deficient rainfall or drought is statistically significant over
the subdivisions west of longitude 80°E and north of 12°N. During the five strong El Nino years—1877, 1899, 1911, 1918, and
1972—many areas of India suffered large rainfall deficiencies and severe droughts. There are four moderate El Nino years—1887,
1914, 1953, and 1976—when the suffering was marginal.
The relationship between El Nino and the Indian monsoon rainfall is expected to be useful in forecasting large-scale anomalies
in the monsoon over India. 相似文献
3.
This study examines the short-range forecast accuracy of the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric
Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) as applied to the July 2006 episode of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the model's sensitivity
to the choice of different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs), namely Betts-Miller, Grell (GR) and Kain-Fritsch (KF).
The results showed that MM5 day 1 (0–24 h prediction) and day 2 (24–48 h prediction) forecasts using all three CPSs overpredicted
monsoon rainfall over the Indian landmass, with the larger overprediction seen in the day 2 forecasts. Among the CPSs, the
rainfall distribution over the Indian landmass was better simulated in forecasts using the KF scheme. The KF scheme showed
better skill in predicting the area of rainfall for most of the rainfall thresholds. The root mean square error (RMSE) in
day 1 and day 2 rainfall forecasts using different CPSs showed that rainfall simulated using the KF scheme agreed better with
the observed rainfall. As compared to other CPSs, simulation using the GR scheme showed larger RMSE in wind speed prediction
at 850 and 200 hPa over the Indian landmass. MM5 24-h temperature forecasts at 850 hPa with all the CPSs showed a warm bias
of the order of 1 K over the Indian landmass and the bias doubled in 48-h model forecasts. The mean error in temperature prediction
at 850 hPa over the Indian region using the KF scheme was comparatively smaller for all the forecast intervals. The model
with all the CPSs overpredicted humidity at 850 hPa. The improved prediction by MM5 with the KF scheme is well complemented
by the smaller error shown by the KF scheme in vertical distribution of heat and mean moist static energy in the lower troposphere.
In this study, the KF scheme which explicitly resolve the downdrafts in the cloud column tended to produce more realistic
precipitation forecasts as compared to other schemes which did not explicitly incorporate downdraft effects. This is an important
result especially given that the area covered by monsoon-precipitating systems is largely from stratiform-type clouds which
are associated with strong downdrafts in the lower levels. This result is useful for improving the treatment of cumulus convection
in numerical models over the ISM region. 相似文献
4.
Relations between oxygen stable isotopic ratios in precipitation and relevant meteorological factors in southwest China 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
ZHANG XinPing LIU JingMiao SUN WeiZheng HUANG YiMin & ZHANG JianMing College of Resources Environment Hunan Normal University Changsha China Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Beijing China Cold Arid Regions Environmental Engineering Research Institute Lanzhou China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2007,50(4):571-581
The correlations of isotopic ratios in precipitation with temperature, air pressure and humidity at dif- ferent altitudes, in southwest China, are analyzed. There appear marked negative correlations for the δ 18O in precipitation with precipitation amount, vapor pressure and atmospheric precipitable water (PW) at Mengzi, Simao and Tengchong stations on synoptic timescale; the marked negative correlations between the δ 18O in precipitation and the diurnal mean temperature at 400 hPa, 500 hPa, 700 hPa and 850 hPa are different from the temperature effect in middle-high-latitude inland. Moreover, the notable positive correlation between the δ 18O in precipitation and the dew-point deficit △Td at different altitudes is found at the three stations. On annual timescale, the annual precipitation amount weighted mean δ 18O display the negative correlations not only with annual precipitation but also with annual mean temperature at 500 hPa. It can be deduced that, in the years with abnormally strong summer monsoon, more warm and wet air from low-latitude oceans is transported northward along the vapor channel located in southwest China and generates abnormally strong rainfall on the way. Meanwhile, the ab- normally strong condensation process will release more condensed latent heat into atmosphere, and lead to the rise of atmospheric temperature during rainfall, but decline of the δ 18O in precipitation. On the contrary, in the years with abnormally weak summer monsoon, the abnormally weak condensation process will release less condensed latent heat into atmosphere, and lead to the decline of atmos- pheric temperature during rainfall, but increase of the δ 18O in precipitation. 相似文献
5.
Identification of best predictors for forecasting seasonal rainfall and runoff in Australia 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The first step towards developing a reliable seasonal runoff forecast is identifying the key predictors that drive rainfall and runoff. This paper investigates the lag relationships between rainfall across Australia and runoff across southeast Australia versus 12 atmospheric‐oceanic predictors, and how the relationships change over time. The analysis of rainfall data indicates that the relationship is greatest in spring and summer in northeast Australia and in spring in southeast Australia. The best predictors for spring rainfall in eastern Australia are NINO4 [sea surface temperature (SST) in western Pacific] and thermocline (20 °C isotherm of the Pacific) and those for summer rainfall in northeast Australia are NINO4 and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin). The relationship in northern Australia is greatest in spring and autumn with NINO4 being the best predictor. In western Australia, the relationship is significant in summer, where SST2 (SST over the Indian Ocean) and II (SST over the Indonesian region) is the best predictor in the southwest and northwest, respectively. The analysis of runoff across southeast Australia indicates that the runoff predictability in the southern parts is greatest in winter and spring, with antecedent runoff being the best predictor. The relationship between spring runoff and NINO4, thermocline and SOI is also relatively high and can be used together with antecedent runoff to forecast spring runoff. In the northern parts of southeast Australia, the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are better predictors of runoff than antecedent runoff, and have significant correlation with winter, spring and summer runoff. For longer lead times, the runoff serial correlation is reduced, especially over the northern parts, and the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are likely to be better predictors for forecasting runoff. The correlations between runoff versus the predictors vary with time, and this has implications for the development of forecast relationship that assumes stationarity in the historical data. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
印度洋海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature，简称SST）的方差分析和相关分析表明南印度洋也存在一个海温偶极子型振荡，并定义了一个南印度洋海表温度异常偶极子指数.夏、秋季（南半球冬、春）的南印度洋偶极子指数与后期热带500hPa和100hPa高度场异常有显著而持续的相关，在冬、春达到最大，并可以持续到次年夏、秋.前期夏、秋季节的南印度洋偶极模对次年我国大陆东部夏季降水异常有显著的影响，对应偶极子正位相，次年夏季印度洋、南海（东亚）夏季风偏弱；副高加强且南撤、西伸，南亚高压偏强且位置偏东，易形成我国长江流域降水偏多，华南降水偏少；负位相年反之.后期冬季西太平洋暖池是联系南印度洋偶极子与次年我国夏季降水异常关系的一条重要途径.南印度洋偶极子表现出了明显的独立于ENSO（El Nio Southern Oscillation，简称ENSO）的特征. 相似文献
7.
In this study, sensitivity of the Indian summer monsoon simulation to the Himalayan orography representation in a regional climate model (RegCM) is examined. The prescribed height of the Himalayan orography is less in the RegCM model than the actual height of the Himalayas. Therefore, in order to understand the impact of the Himalayan orography representation on the Indian summer monsoon, the height of the Himalayan orography is increased (decreased) by 10 % from its control height in the RegCM model. Three distinct monsoon years such as deficit (1987), excess (1988) and normal rainfall years are considered for this study. The performance of the RegCM model is tested with the use of a driving force from the reanalysis data and a global model output. IMD gridded rainfall and the reanalysis-2 data are used as verification analysis to validate the model results. The RegCM model has the potential to represent mean rainfall distribution over India as well as the upper air circulation patterns and some of the semi-permanent features during the Indian summer monsoon season. The skill of RegCM is reasonable in representing the variation in circulation and precipitation pattern and intensity during two contrasting rainfall years. The simulated seasonal mean rainfall over many parts of India especially, the foothills of the Himalaya, west coast of India and over the north east India along with the whole of India are more when the orography height is increased. The low level southwesterly wind including the Somali jet stream as well as upper air circulation associated with the tropical easterly jet stream become stronger with the enhancement of the Himalayan orography. Statistical analysis suggests that the distribution and intensity of rainfall is represented better with the increased orography of RegCM by 10 % from its control height. Thus, representation of the Himalayan orography in the model is close to actual and may enhance the skill in seasonal scale simulation of the Indian summer monsoon. 相似文献
8.
本文采用经验正交函数展开(EOF)及相关分析等方法,使用中国气象局整编的160站1951~2005年月平均降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了中国东部夏季降水准两年周期振荡的空间模态及其大气环流背景场.结果表明:(1)中国地区降水季节性差异明显,夏季是主要的降水期并具有明显的准两年周期振荡(TBO)特征,中国东部地区是降水TBO方差变化最大的区域.(2)中国东部夏季降水TBO存在两个主要的空间模态,第1模态以27°N为界南北成反位相的变化关系,降水振幅较大;第2模态降水振幅相对较小,大值中心位于河套-华北地区.(3)形成中国东部夏季降水TBO的两个主要空间模态环流背景场明显不同.第1模态与西太平洋海温成正相关,与东太平洋海温成负相关.第2模态则主要与日本海附近的海温成正相关.当夏季降水TBO以江淮偏多时(第1模态),西太平洋海温偏高,东太平洋海温偏低,中国东部及沿海上空850 hPa有异常反气旋,500 hPa高度相关场东亚上空呈"正负正"波列特征,200 hPa南亚高压加强,西风急流位置偏南.当夏季降水TBO降水位置偏北时(第2模态),中国东部及沿海上空有异常气旋,200 hPa南亚高压偏弱,西风急流位置偏北. 相似文献
9.
The relationship between the monsoon rainfall throughout all India, northwest India and peninsular India as well as the onset dates of the monsoon and two indices of southern oscillation (SOI), namely Isla de Pascua minus Darwin (I-D) and Tahiti minus Darwin (T-D) pressure anomaly have been studied for different periods. The study indicates that the monsoon rainfall shows a strong and significant direct relationship with SOI for the concurrent, succeeding autumn and succeeding winter seasons. The magnitude of the direct correlation coefficient for the SOI using (I-D) is enhanced over all India and peninsular India if the above seasons happen to be associated with an easterly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) at 50 mb. The result indicates that the strength of the monsoon plays an important role in the following southern oscillation events in the Pacific Ocean. The premonsoon tendency of the SOI anomaly spring minus winter SOI shows a significant positive correlation with monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India. The absolute value of the positive correlation coefficient becomes highly enhanced over all India, northwest India as well as peninsular India if the 6-month period from December to March is associated with the westerly phase of the QBO. Hence, the premonsoon SOI tendency parameter can be a useful predictor of Indian monsoon rainfall especially if it happens to be associated with the westerly QBO. Significant negative association is also found between the anomaly of monsoon onset dates and SOI of the previous spring season, the absolute value being higher for SOI (T-D) than for SOI (I-D). The negative correlation coefficient becomes enhanced if the previous springs are associated with a westerly phase of the QBO. It shows that the previous spring SOI has some predictive value for the onset date of Indian monsoon, a positive SOI followed by an early onset of monsoon, andvice versa, especially if it is associated with a westerly phase of the QBO. 相似文献
10.
D. R. Pattanaik 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1527-1545
The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal
and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different
homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the
monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation
(OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this
study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period
-ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal
in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS
and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal
(NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of
Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase
in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about
three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern
tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian
Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for
the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the
OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall,
whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also
found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies
over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the
years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA. 相似文献
11.
QiuMing Yang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2009,52(10):1485-1501
Based on the observational data in summer, the variations of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of the daily rainfall over the
lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (LYRV) were studied by using the non-integer spectrum analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
data for the period of 1979–2005 were analyzed by principal oscillation pattern analysis (POP) to investigate the spatial
and temporal characteristics of principal ISO patterns of the global circulation. The relationships of these ISO patterns
to the rainfall ISO and the heavy precipitation process over LYRV were also discussed. It is found that the rainfall over
LYRV in May–August is mainly of periodic oscillations of 10–20, 20–30 and 60–70 days, and the interannual variation of the
intensity of its 20–30-day oscillation has a strongly positive correlation with the number of the heavy precipitation process.
Two modes (POP1, POP2) are revealed by POP for the 20–30-day oscillation of the global 850 hPa geopotential height. One is
a circumglobal teleconnection wave train in the middle latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SCGT) with an eastward propagation,
and the other is the southward propagation pattern in the tropical western Pacific (TWP). The POP modes explain 7.72% and
7.66% of the variance, respectively. These two principal ISO patterns are closely linked to the low frequency rainfall and
heavy precipitation process over LYRV, in which the probability for the heavy precipitation process over LYRV is 54.9% and
60.4% for the positive phase of the imaginary part of POP1 and real part of POP2, respectively. Furthermore, the models of
the global atmospheric circulation for the 20–30-day oscillation in association with or without the heavy precipitation process
over LYRV during the Northern Hemisphere summer are set up by means of the composite analysis method. Most of the heavy precipitation
processes over LYRV appear in Phase 4 of SCGT or Phase 6 of TWP. When the positive phases of 20–30-day oscillations for the
rainfall over LYRV are associated with (without) the heavy precipitation process, a strong westerly stream appears (disappears)
from the Arabian Sea via India and Bay of Bengal (BOB) to southern China and LYRV for the global 850 hPa filtered wind field
during Phase 4 of SCGT. This situation is favorable (unfavorable) for the forming of the heavy precipitation process over
LYRV. Similarly, a strong (weak) western wind belt forms from India through BOB to southern China and LYRV and the subtropical
northwestern Pacific and central and eastern equatorial Pacific during Phase 6 of TWP for the cases with (without) the heavy
precipitation process. The evolutions of these ISO patterns related to the 20–30-day oscillation are excited by either the
interaction of extratropical circulation in both hemispheres or the heat source forcing in Asia monsoon domain and internal
interaction of circulation in East Asia. These two global circulation models might therefore provide valuable information
for the extended-range forecastof the heavy precipitation process over LYRV during the 10–30 days. 相似文献
12.
Porathur V. Joseph 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(3):723-738
Asian summer monsoon sets in over India after the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves across the equator to the northern hemisphere over the Indian Ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on either side of the equator in Indian and Pacific oceans are found related to the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India). Droughts in the June to September monsoon rainfall of India are followed by warm SST anomalies over tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over west Pacific Ocean. These anomalies persist till the following monsoon which gives normal or excess rainfall (tropospheric biennial oscillation). Thus, we do not get in India many successive drought years as in sub-Saharan Africa, thanks to the ocean. Monsoon rainfall of India has a decadal variability in the form of 30-year epochs of frequent (infrequent) drought monsoons occurring alternately. Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well-known decadal oscillation in SST of the Atlantic Ocean (also of the Pacific Ocean) are found to run parallel with about the same period close to 60 years and the same phase. In the active–break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon, the ocean and the atmosphere are found to interact on the time scale of 30–60 days. Net heat flux at the ocean surface, monsoon low-level jetstream (LLJ) and the seasonally persisting shallow mixed layer of the ocean north of the LLJ axis play important roles in this interaction. In an El Niño year, the LLJ extends eastwards up to the date line creating an area of shallow ocean mixed layer there, which is hypothesised to lengthen the active–break (AB) cycle typically from 1 month in a La Niña to 2 months in an El Niño year. Indian monsoon droughts are known to be associated with El Niños, and long break monsoon spells are found to be a major cause of monsoon droughts. In the global warming scenario, the observed rapid warming of the equatorial Indian ocean SST has caused the weakening of both the monsoon Hadley circulation and the monsoon LLJ which has been related to the observed rapid decreasing trend in the seasonal number of monsoon depressions. 相似文献
13.
利用SODA次表层海温再分析资料和卫星遥感海面高度异常数据,分析了热带太平洋和印度洋温跃层海温之间的联系,提出了太平洋-印度洋温跃层海温异常联合模(PITM)的概念、并定义了该联合模指数.结果表明,联合模指数具有准两年和3~5年的年际变化周期以及2011-2012年的年际变化周期,并具有季节锁相和振幅不对称等特征.联合模的演变过程与温跃层海温异常(TOTA)的发展和传播过程紧密相联:在太平洋,TOTA一般从西太平洋出发沿赤道(5°S-5°N)向东传播,到达东太平洋之后折向北,再沿10°N-14°N纬度带向西传播到达太平洋西岸并向赤道西太平洋扩展,形成一条回路;南太平洋也有类似回路但信号较弱;在印度洋,则主要沿8°S-12°S纬度带向西传播,到达西岸后折向北,然后迅速沿赤道(1.25°S-1.25°N)向东扩展,也形成一条回路.对NCEP/NCAR再分析风场资料的合成分析则表明,联合模的演变过程与大气环流尤其是纬向垂直环流(Walker环流)的变化密切相关,联合模的正位相对应着赤道印度洋区域顺时针的Walker环流以及赤道太平洋区域逆时针的Walker环流;而联合模的负相位则有相反的情况.此外,联合模演变过程中,TOTA的传播发展与850 hPa异常纬向风的传播发展有很好的相关. 相似文献
14.
Niraj Priyadarshi Soumya Bandyopadhyay V. M. Chowdary K. Chandrasekar Jeganathan Chockalingam Uday Raj 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(9):1583-1595
ABSTRACT This study analysed long-term rainfall data (1851–2006) over seven climatic zones of India at seasonal and annual scales based on three techniques: (i) linear regression, (ii) multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) and (iii) Bayesian algorithm. The linear regression technique was used for trend analysis of short-term (30 years) and long-term (156 years) rainfall data. The MFDFA revealed small- and large-scale fluctuations, whereas the Bayesian algorithm helped in quantifying the uncertainty in break-point detection from the rainfall time series. Major break points years identified through Bayesian algorithm were 1888, 1904 and 1976. The MFDFA technique identified that high fluctuation years were between 1871–1890, 1891–1910 and 1951–1970. Linear regression-based analysis revealed 1881–1910 and 1971–2006 as break-point periods in the North Mountainous Indian region. A similar analysis was carried out for India as a whole, as well as its seven climatic zones. 相似文献
15.
观测资料的分析极为清楚地表明,江淮流域的夏季降水有着极为明显的低频变化,周期为30-60d和近20d的振荡是其最基本的特征,尤其是在多雨的年份.对应江淮夏季多雨(涝)年和少雨(旱)年,大气环流的分析表明其大气季节内振荡(IS0)的形势有着显著的差异.例如在多雨(少雨)年,在长江以南的850hPa上为一个低频(IS0)反气旋(气旋)性环流控制,而中国北部和日本一带为气旋(反气旋)性环流,从而在江淮流域形成较强的低频辐合(辐散)气流;在200hPa的青藏高原上却为一个低频气旋(反气旋)性环流所控制.分析还表明,对应多雨年,在江淮流域有明显的由中高讳度向南传播和由低玮度向北传播的大气低频振荡的汇合情况;而对应于少雨年,由中高纬度向南传播的低频系统较不明显,在江淮流域低频系统的汇合也较为不清楚. 相似文献
16.
Some aspects of the monsoon circulation and monsoon rainfall 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
R. Ananthakrishnan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1977,115(5-6):1209-1249
Summary The south Asian summer monsoon from June to September accounts for the greater part of the annual rainfall over most of India and southeast Asia. The evolution of the summer and winter monsoon circulations over India is examined on the basis of the surface and upper air data of stations across India. The salient features of the seasonal reversals of temperature and pressure gradients and winds and the seasonal and synoptic fluctuations of atmospheric humidity are discussed. The space-time variations of rainfall are considered with the help of climatic pentad rainfall charts and diagrams. The rainfall of several north and central Indian stations shows a minimum around mid-August and a maximum around mid-February which seem to be connected with the extreme summer and winter positions of the ITCZ and the associated north-south shifts in the seasonal circulation patterns. Attention is drawn to the characteristic features of the monsoon rainfall that emerge from a study of daily and hourly rainfall of selected stations. Diurnal variations of temperature, pressure, wind and rainfall over the monsoon belt are briefly treated. 相似文献
17.
Lareef Zubair 《水文研究》2003,17(12):2439-2448
As part of an effort to demonstrate the use of climate predictions for water resources management, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences on stream flow in the Kelani River in Sri Lanka were investigated using correlation analysis, composite analysis and contingency tables. El Niño (warm phase of ENSO) was associated with decreased annual stream flow and La Niña (cold phase of ENSO) with increased annual flows. The annual stream flow had a negative correlation with the simultaneous ENSO index of NINO3·4 that was significant at the 95% level. This negative correlation is enhanced to a 99% level if the aggregate January to September or the April to September stream flow alone were considered. Although, there is little correlation between ENSO indices and stream flow during the October to December period, there is a high correlation between rainfall and NINO3·4 (r = 0·51, significant at the 99% level). Therefore ENSO based rainfall predictions can be used along with a hydrological model to predict the October to December stream flow. This study demonstrates the viability of using ENSO based predictors for January to September or April to September stream flow predictions in the Kelani River. The October to December stream flow may be predicted by exploiting the strong relationship between ENSO and rainfall during that period. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Abstract Characterization of the seasonal and inter-annual spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in a changing climate is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest adequate future water resources management strategies. Trends in annual, seasonal and maximum 30-day extreme rainfall over Ethiopia are investigated using 0.5° latitude?×?0.5° longitude gridded monthly precipitation data. The spatial coherence of annual rainfall among contiguous rainfall grid points is also assessed for possible spatial similarity across the country. The correlation between temporally coinciding North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index and annual rainfall variability is examined to understand the underlying coherence. In total 381 precipitation grid points covering the whole of Ethiopia with five decades (1951–2000) of precipitation data are analysed using the Mann-Kendall test and Moran spatial autocorrelation method. Summer (July–September) seasonal and annual rainfall data exhibit significant decreasing trends in northern, northwestern and western parts of the country, whereas a few grid points in eastern areas show increasing annual rainfall trends. Most other parts of the country exhibit statistically insignificant trends. Regions with high annual and seasonal rainfall distribution exhibit high temporal and spatial correlation indices. Finally, the country is sub-divided into four zones based on annual rainfall similarity. The association of the AMO index with annual rainfall is modestly good for northern and northeastern parts of the country; however, it is weak over the southern region. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Uhlenbrook Citation Wagesho, N., Goel, N.K., and Jain, M.K. 2013. Temporal and spatial variability of annual and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 354–373. 相似文献
19.
The 2010 boreal summer marked a worldwide abnormal climate. An unprecedented heat wave struck East Asia in July and August 2010. In addition to this, the tropical Indian Ocean was abnormally warm during the summer of 2010. Several heavy rainfall events and associated floods were also reported in the Indian monsoon region. During the season, the monsoon trough (an east–west elongated area of low pressure) was mostly located south of its normal position and monsoon low pressure systems moved south of their normal tracks. This resulted in an uneven spatial distribution with above-normal rainfall over peninsular and Northwest India, and deficient rainfall over central and northeastern parts of India, thus prediction (and simulation) of such anomalous climatic summer season is important. In this context, evolution of vertical moist thermodynamic structure associated with Indian summer monsoon 2010 is studied using regional climate model, reanalysis and satellite observations. This synergised approach is the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The model-simulated fields (pressure, temperature, winds and precipitation) are comparable with the respective in situ and reanalysis fields, both in intensity and geographical distribution. The correlation coefficient between model and observed precipitation is 0.5 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 4.8 mm day?1. Inter-comparison of model-simulated fields with satellite observations reveals that the midtropospheric temperature [Water vapour mixing ratio (WVMR)] has RMSE of 0.5 K (1.6 g kg?1), whereas the surface temperature (WVMR) has RMSE of 3.4 K (2.2 g kg?1). Similarly, temporal evolution of vertical structure of temperature with rainfall over central Indian region reveals that the baroclinic nature of monsoon is simulated by the model. The midtropospheric warming associated with rainfall is captured by the model, whereas the model failed to capture the surface response to high and low rainfall events. The model has strong water vapour loading in the whole troposphere, but weaker coherent response with rainfall compared to observations. Thus, strong water vapour loading and overestimation of rainfall are reported in the model. This study put forward that the discrepancy in the model-simulated structure may be reduced by assimilation of satellite observations. 相似文献
20.
Large scale climate and rainfall seasonality in a Mediterranean Area: Insights from a non‐homogeneous Markov model applied to the Agro‐Pontino plain 
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下载免费PDF全文 Francesco Cioffi Federico Conticello Upmanu Lall Lucia Marotta Vito Telesca 《水文研究》2017,31(3):668-686
In the context of climate change and variability, there is considerable interest in how large scale climate indicators influence regional precipitation occurrence and its seasonality. Seasonal and longer climate projections from coupled ocean–atmosphere models need to be downscaled to regional levels for hydrologic applications, and the identification of appropriate state variables from such models that can best inform this process is also of direct interest. Here, a Non‐Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) for downscaling daily rainfall is developed for the Agro‐Pontino Plain, a coastal reclamation region very vulnerable to changes of hydrological cycle. The NHMM, through a set of atmospheric predictors, provides the link between large scale meteorological features and local rainfall patterns. Atmospheric data from the NCEP/NCAR archive and 56‐years record (1951–2004) of daily rainfall measurements from 7 stations in Agro‐Pontino Plain are analyzed. A number of validation tests are carried out, in order to: 1) identify the best set of atmospheric predictors to model local rainfall; 2) evaluate the model performance to capture realistically relevant rainfall attributes as the inter‐annual and seasonal variability, as well as average and extreme rainfall patterns. Validation tests show that the best set of atmospheric predictors are the following: mean sea level pressure, temperature at 1000 hPa, meridional and zonal wind at 850 hPa and precipitable water, from 20°N to 80°N of latitude and from 80°W to 60°E of longitude. Furthermore, the validation tests show that the rainfall attributes are simulated realistically and accurately. The capability of the NHMM to be used as a forecasting tool to quantify changes of rainfall patterns forced by alteration of atmospheric circulation under climate change and variability scenarios is discussed. 相似文献