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1.
C. J. van der Veen 《Surveys in Geophysics》1987,9(3-4):389-418
Through the use of fossil fuels as an energy source, mankind is slowly changing the constitution of the atmosphere. The emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases changes the radiative properties of the earth/atmosphere system, and as a result climate is expected to become warmer. As a starting point for the sea-level rise scenario discussed here it is assumed that the globally-averaged increase of surface air temperatures will amount to 2 to 4°C in the second half of the next century (i.e. around 2085 AD). One of the consequences of this warming is an accelerated rise in sea level, caused by thermal expansion of ocean water and further retreat of mountain glaciers. The Greenland Ice Sheet will also decrease in size, but on the other hand, Antarctica is expected to grow slightly due to increased snowfall. Taken together, the projection for future sea level presented here suggest that by 2085 AD, global sea-level stand will be 28–66 cm higher than the present level, which implies a rate of sea-level rise of about 2 to 4 times that observed during the last 100 yr. Our scenario does not include a contribution resulting from the possible collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. If this collapse is indeed likely to occur after the major peripheral ice shelves have thinned considerably, the effects on sea level will be small in the coming 100 yr. First, the oceans surrounding Antarctica must have warmed sufficiently to reduce the winter sea-ice extent to allow circumpolar deep water to penetrate into the sub-shelf cavities, thus increasing basal melt rates on the ice shelves. Of course, on longer time scales, West Antarctica could become the major contributor to rising sea level. 相似文献
2.
全球变暖背景下的冰盖消融以及由此带来海平面上升日益明显,直接影响地球表面的陆地水质量平衡,以及固体地球瞬间弹性响应,研究冰盖质量变化的海平面指纹能够帮助深入了解未来海平面区域变化的驱动因素.本文基于海平面变化方程并考虑负荷自吸效应（SAL）与地球极移反馈的影响,借助美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心（Center for Space Research,CSR）发布的2003年到2012年十年期间的GRACE重力场月模型数据（RL05）,结合加权高斯平滑的区域核函数,反演得到格陵兰与南极地区冰盖质量变化的时空分布,并利用海平面变化方程计算得到了相对海平面的空间变化,结果表明：格陵兰与南极冰盖质量整体呈明显的消融趋势,变化速率分别为-273.31 Gt/a及-155.56 Gt/a,由此导致整个北极圈相对海平面降低,最高可达约-0.6 cm·a-1;而南极地区冰盖质量变化趋势分布不一,导致西南极近海相对海平面下降,而东南极地区近海相对海平面上升,最高可达约0.2 cm·a-1.远离质量负荷区域的全球海平面以上升趋势为主,平均全球相对海平面上升0.71 mm·a-1,部分远海地区相对海平面上升更加突出（例如北美与澳大利亚）,高出全球平均海平面上升速率将近30%.此外,本文也重点探讨了GRACE监测冰盖消融结果中由于极地近海海平面变化导致的泄漏影响,经此项影响校正后的结果表明：海平面指纹效应对GRACE监测格陵兰与南极地区2003-2012期间整体冰盖消融速率的贡献分别为约3%与9%,建议在后期利用GRACE更精确地估算研究区冰盖质量变化时,应考虑海平面指纹效应的渗透影响. 相似文献
3.
Thirteen years of GRACE data provide an excellent picture of the current mass changes of Greenland and Antarctica, with mass loss in the GRACE period 2002–2015 amounting to 265 ± 25 GT/year for Greenland (including peripheral ice caps), and 95 ± 50 GT/year for Antarctica, corresponding to 0.72 and 0.26 mm/year average global sea level change. A significant acceleration in mass loss rate is found, especially for Antarctica, while Greenland mass loss, after a corresponding acceleration period, and a record mass loss in the summer of 2012, has seen a slight decrease in short-term mass loss trend. The yearly mass balance estimates, based on point mass inversion methods, have relatively large errors, both due to uncertainties in the glacial isostatic adjustment processes, especially for Antarctica, leakage from unmodelled ocean mass changes, and (for Greenland) difficulties in separating mass signals from the Greenland ice sheet and the adjacent Canadian ice caps. The limited resolution of GRACE affects the uncertainty of total mass loss to a smaller degree; we illustrate the “real” sources of mass changes by including satellite altimetry elevation change results in a joint inversion with GRACE, showing that mass change occurs primarily associated with major outlet glaciers, as well as a narrow coastal band. For Antarctica, the primary changes are associated with the major outlet glaciers in West Antarctica (Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier systems), as well as on the Antarctic Peninsula, where major glacier accelerations have been observed after the 2002 collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf. 相似文献
4.
C. J. Van Der Veen 《Surveys in Geophysics》1987,9(1):1-42
In this review, the carbon dioxide problem is discussed, with special reference to the possible effects of a global warming on the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. Instead of detailed projections of future climate and the consequences, the basic mechanisms are explained and illustrated with results described in the literature.It is concluded that a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 content (most likely to occur somewhere in the second half of the next century) will result in a globally-averaged warming of 2–4°C, and an intensification of the hydrological cycle. In the polar regions, this warming will be a few degrees larger and as a consequence the Greenland Ice Sheet will decrease in size. Antarctica, on the other hand, is expected to grow because of the increased snowfall. The instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is also discussed and, although no conclusive prediction to its long-term response can be made, it is argued that on a short time scale (less than about 100 y) nothing dramatically wil happen to this part of Antarctica. 相似文献
5.
两极冰盖消融是造成海平面上升的重要原因,作为世界第二大冰盖,格陵兰冰盖消融速度在进入21世纪以后明显加快,引起了广泛关注.本文利用ICESat卫星激光测高数据,探讨了坡度改正的方法,通过改进平差模型解决了病态问题,并采用重复轨道方法计算了2003年9月至2009年10月间格陵兰冰盖的体积和高程变化趋势,对格陵兰冰盖各冰川流域系统的变化情况进行了详细分析.结果表明,格陵兰冰盖在这6年间平均高程变化趋势为-16.79±0.84cm·a^-1,体积变化速率为-301.37±15.16km^3·a^-1,体积流失主要发生在冰盖边缘,其中DS1、DS8等流域的体积损失正在加剧,而高程在2000m以上的冰盖内陆地区表现出高程积聚的状态,但增长速度明显减缓.与现有研究成果的对比表明,算法优化后的本文结果更具可靠性. 相似文献
6.
Distribution of ice thickness and subglacial topography of the “Chinese Wall” around Kunlun Station,East Antarctica 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
As fundamental parameters of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, ice thickness and subglacial topography are critical factors for studying the basal conditions and mass balance in Antarctica. During CHINARE 24 (the 24th Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition, 2007/08), the research team used a deep ice-penetrating radar system to measure the ice thickness and subglacial topography of the “Chinese Wall” around Kunlun Station, East Antarctica. Preliminary results show that the ice thickness varies mostly from 1600 m to 2800 m along the “Chinese Wall”, with the thickest ice being 3444 m, and the thinnest ice 1255 m. The average bedrock elevation is 1722 m, while the minimum is just 604 m. Compared with the northern side of the ice divide, the ice thickness is a little greater and the subglacial topography lower on the southern side, which is also characterized by four deep valleys. We found no basal freeze-on ice in the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains area, subglacial lakes, or water bodies along the “Chinese Wall”. Ice thickness and subglacial topography data extracted from the Bedmap 2 database along the “Chinese Wall” are consistent with our results, but their resolution and accuracy are very limited in areas where the bedrock fluctuates intensely. The distribution of ice thickness and subglacial topography detected by ice-penetrating radar clarifies the features of the ice sheet in this “inaccessible” region. These results will help to advance the study of ice sheet dynamics and the determination of future locations of the GSM’s geological and deep ice core drilling sites in the Dome A region. 相似文献
7.
Changes of mean annual net accumulation at the surface on the grounded ice sheets of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and Greenland in response to variations in sea ice extent are estimated using grid-point values 100 km apart. The data bases are assembled principally by bilinear interpolation of remotely sensed brightness temperature (Nimbus-5 ESMR, Nimbus-7 SMMR), surface temperature (Nimbus-7 THIR), and surface elevation (ERS-1 radar altimeter). These data, complemented by field data where remotely sensed data are not available, are used in multivariate analyses in which mean annual accumulation (derived from firn emissivity) is the dependent variable; the independent variables are latitude, surface elevation, mean annual surface temperature, and mean annual distance to open ocean (as a source of energy and moisture). The last is the shortest distance measured between a grid point and the mean annual position of the 10% sea ice concentration boundary, and is used as an index of changes in sea ice extent as well as of mean concentration. Stepwise correlation analyses indicate that variations in sea ice extent of ± 50 km would lead to changes in accumulation inversely of ± 4% on East Antarctica, ± 10% on West Antarctica, and ±4% on Greenland. These results are compared with those obtained in a previous study using visually interpolated values from contoured compilations of field data; they substantiate the findings for the Antarctic ice sheets (±4% on East Antarctica, ±9% in West Antarctica), and suggest a reduction by one half of the probable change of accumulation on Greenland (from ±8%). The results also suggest a reduction of the combined contribution to sea level variability to ±0.19 mm a-1 (from ±0.22 mm a-1). 相似文献
8.
南极冰盖冰雪质量变化反映了全球气候变化,并且直接影响着全球海平面变化.ICESat测高卫星的主要任务之一就是要确定南北两极冰盖的质量变化情况并评估其对全球海平面变化的影响.本文利用2003年10月至2008年12月的ICESat测高数据,针对南极DEM分辨率有限的特殊性,通过求解坡度改正值,解决重复轨道地面脚点不重合的问题,计算了南极大陆(86°S以北区域,后文所述南极冰盖均不包括86°S以南区域)在这5年里的冰雪质量变化情况,得到东南极冰盖的质量变化为-18±20Gt/a,西南极-26±6Gt/a,南极冰盖的冰雪质量变化为-44±21Gt/a,对全球海平面上升的影响约为0.12mm·a~(-1).解算结果表明,南极冰盖质量亏损主要集中在西南极阿蒙森海岸附近冰川以及东南极波因塞特角区域. 相似文献
9.
Steven Franke Hannes Eisermann Wilfried Jokat Graeme Eagles Jölund Asseng Heinrich Miller Daniel Steinhage Veit Helm Olaf Eisen Daniela Jansen 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(13):2728-2745
The landscape of Antarctica, hidden beneath kilometre-thick ice in most places, has been shaped by the interactions between tectonic and erosional processes. The flow dynamics of the thick ice cover deepened pre-formed topographic depressions by glacial erosion, but also preserved the subglacial landscapes in regions with moderate to slow ice flow. Mapping the spatial variability of these structures provides the basis for reconstruction of the evolution of subglacial morphology. This study focuses on the Jutulstraumen Glacier drainage system in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The Jutulstraumen Glacier reaches the ocean via the Jutulstraumen Graben, which is the only significant passage for draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet through the western part of the Dronning Maud Land mountain chain. We acquired new bed topography data during an airborne radar campaign in the region upstream of the Jutulstraumen Graben to characterise the source area of the glacier. The new data show a deep relief to be generally under-represented in available bed topography compilations. Our analysis of the bed topography, valley characteristics and bed roughness leads to the conclusion that much more of the alpine landscape that would have formed prior to the Antarctic Ice Sheet is preserved than previously anticipated. We identify an active and deeply eroded U-shaped valley network next to largely preserved passive fluvial and glacial modified landscapes. Based on the landscape classification, we reconstruct the temporal sequence by which ice flow modified the topography since the beginning of the glaciation of Antarctica. 相似文献
10.
LIU Yan CHENG Xiao HUI FengMing WANG XianWei WANG Fang CHENG Cheng 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,57(6):1267-1277
Ice shelf breakups account for most mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet as the consequence of the propagation of crevasses(or rift)in response to stress.Thus there is a pressing need for detecting crevasses’location and depth,to understand the mechanism of calving processes.This paper presents a method of crevasse detection using the ICESat-1/GLAS data.A case study was taken at the Amery Ice Shelf of Antarctica to verify the accuracy of geo-location and depth of crevasses detected.Moreover,based on the limited crevasse points,we developed a method to detect the peak stress points which can be used to track the location of the crack tips and to identify the possible high-risk area where an ice shelf begins to break up.The spatial and temporal distribution of crevasse depth and the spatial distribution of peak stress points of the Amery Ice Shelf were analyzed through 132 tracks in 16 campaign periods of ICESat-1/GLAS between 2003 and 2008.The results showed that the depth of the detected crevasse points ranged from 2 to 31.7 m,which were above the sea level;the crevasse that advected downstream to the front edge of an ice shelf has little possibility to directly result in breakups because the crevasse depth did not show any increasing trend over time;the local stress concentration is distributed mainly in the suture zones on the ice shelves. 相似文献
11.
Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has been a major contributor to sea level change in the recent past. Global and regional sea level variations caused by melting of the GIS are investigated with the finite element sea-ice ocean model (FESOM). We consider changes of local density (steric effects), mass inflow into the ocean, redistribution of mass, and gravitational effects. Five melting scenarios are simulated, where mass losses of 100, 200, 500, and 1000 Gt/yr are converted to a continuous volume flux that is homogeneously distributed along the coast of Greenland south of 75°N. In addition, a scenario of regional melt rates is calculated from daily ice melt characteristics. The global mean sea level modeled with FESOM increases by about 0.3 mm/yr if 100 Gt/yr of ice melts, which includes eustatic and steric sea level change. In the global mean the steric contribution is one order of magnitude smaller than the eustatic contribution. Regionally, especially in the North Atlantic, the steric contribution leads to strong deviations from the global mean sea level change. The modeled pattern mainly reflects the structure of temperature and salinity change in the upper ocean. Additionally, small steric variations occur due to local variability in the heat exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. The mass loss has also affects on the gravitational attraction by the ice sheet, causing spatially varying sea level change mainly near the GIS, but also at greater distances. This effect is accounted for by using Green's functions. 相似文献
12.
2002年发射的GRACE重力卫星为南极冰盖质量平衡提供了一种新的测量方式,但由于南极GIA模型的不确定较大,进而影响GRACE结果的可靠性.本文联合2003—2009年的GRACE和ICESat等数据实现了南极GIA信号的分离,联合方法所分离的GIA不依赖于不确定性很大的冰负荷等假设模型,而是直接基于卫星观测数据估算而来的,具有更大的可靠性.在分离过程中,本文提出了冰流速度加权改正法和GPS球谐拟合改正法对GIA结果进行精化,同时引入了南极GPS观测站的位移数据对分离的GIA进行详细的评估和验证,GPS验证表明经过冰流速度加权和GPS球谐拟合双改正后的GIA结果精度明显得到提高.最后本文利用所分离的GIA对GRACE和ICESat结果进行了改正,得到2003—2009年南极冰盖质量变化的趋势为-66.7±54.5 Gt/a(GRACE)和-77.2±21.5Gt/a(ICESat),相比采用其他的GIA模型,本文的GIA结果使GRACE和ICESat这两种不同观测技术得到的南极冰盖质量变化结果更加趋于一致. 相似文献
13.
Jens-Ove Nslund 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1997,22(5):441-455
On the high altitude polar plateau of Amundsenisen, western Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, a subglacial valley, with a broad horizontal valley floor interpreted as a sediment floodplain or valley delta, was studied by radio echo sounding. In addition, a small, probably glacial, valley was mapped within the same subglacial massif. Basal ice temperatures were calculated using field data on precipitation, air temperature and ice sheet thickness. Discoveries of old landforms which have been preserved more or less intact beneath the former Fennoscandian and Laurentide ice sheets have received increasing attention during the last decade. The aim of this study is to investigate whether preservation of landforms occurs under the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, and to discuss under that climatological and glaciological circumstances preservation may take place. The results show that the ice sheet covering the investigated localities is frozen to bed, and therefore has an insignificant erosional capability. The observations suggest that a large-scale subglacial sediment deposit and a small valley formed by glacial erosion have survived beneath a cold-based ice sheet marginal zone for a long time period. The process of glacial preservation, recognized for bedrock features and tentatively observed for sediment accumulations, should act on similar large-scale landforms under any cold-based ice sheet, present or past. On the basis of existing studies of the age and stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, a Middle Pliocene age is suggested for the preserved landforms. The presence of the presumed sediment-filled valley further indicates that no prolonged periods of basal melting have occurred at the Amundsenisen study area during the ice sheet history, which includes the Quaternary glaciation periods. Finally, calculations of basal temperature for localities at different altitudes within the same subglacial massif were used to demonstrate local altitudinal control of glacial preservation. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
Glacier is a special medium which can conserve a long time chronological information of microorganism. As a preliminary research, from Ice Core3 of Malan glacier (91°45.3′ E, 35°48.4′ N; drilled at 5620 m a.s.l.), we successfully isolated live microorganisms. 75 strains of bacteria in 10 genera and 6 strains of actinomycetes in 2 genera were isolated from 23 samples. 32 strains bacteria were identified to beBacillus and 25 strains wereB. circulans, B. firmus, B. subtilis andB. alvei. The genera of bacteria in Malan ice core were similar to that in Greenland and Antarctic ice core. We cannot isolate fungi and alga from Malan ice core, although they are widely distributed in Greenland and Antarctica.
相似文献15.
Changes in polar ice could cause vertical crustal motion of up to several mm yr-1 along the edge of the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps. Measurements of the uplift could help constrain the changing ice volumes. The problem is complicated by the Earth's visco-elastic response to past loading, including the Late Pleistocene deglaciation. A method is described for removing these visco-elastic effects, by using simultaneous measurements of vertical motion and surface gravity. A linear combination of these two measurement types can be formed which is relatively independent of visco-elastic effects, and which can be interpreted in terms of present-day fluctuations in ice. 相似文献
16.
鉴于卫星测高技术在南极周边海域会受到海面浮冰影响,且在利用测高序列分析海平面周期性动态变化时还会受到潮汐周期混叠效应的影响,为此,本文开展了基于GPS和验潮数据联合的南极大陆附近海域从1994-2014年间海平面的绝对变化研究.研究结果显示：在围绕南极大陆及附近海域的15个验潮站中,海平面绝对变化速度最大的是Diego Ramirez验潮站,达到11.10±0.04 mm·a-1;在西南极南极半岛的德雷克海峡,海平面变化最为活跃,变化均值在8.31±0.05 mm·a-1;在东南极,从Syowa站依次到Casey站,海平面的绝对变化速度相对平稳,四个潮位站海平面变化均值为3.35±0.04 mm·a-1;在罗斯冰架右下侧的罗斯岛附近,由于冰川崩解入海导致Scott Base站处的海平面上升速度较快,达到了9.61±0.07 mm·a-1.综合15个验潮站计算结果可得南极半岛德雷克海峡和罗斯岛附近海域,海平面绝对变化速度要高于同期南大洋海平面绝对变化速度,而东南极4个潮位站海平面绝对变化均值则与其相当.这也进一步反映了南极不同海域间海平面变化的差异性,相比较于对南大洋海平面变化的一个整体研究,分区研究海平面变化更具针对性,能更好地了解南极不同区域冰盖、冰架崩解和消融的情况. 相似文献
17.
The temporal and spatial distributions of Antarctic sea ice play important roles in both the generation mechanisms and the signal characteristics of microseisms. This link paves the way for seismological investigations of Antarctic sea ice. Here we present an overview of the current state of seismological research about microseisms on Antarctic sea ice. We first briefly review satellite remote-sensing observations of Antarctic sea ice over the past 50 years. We then systematically expound upon the generation mechanisms and source distribution of microseisms in relation to seismic noise investigations of sea ice, and the characteristics of Antarctic microseisms and relationship with sea ice variations are further analyzed. We also analyze the continuous data recorded at seismic station BEAR in West Antarctica from 2011 to 2018 and compare the microseism observations with the corresponding satellite remote-sensing observations of Antarctic sea ice. Our results show that:(1) the microseisms from the coastal regions of West Antarctica exhibit clear seasonal variations, SFM with maximum intensities every April-May and minimum intensities around every October-November; while DFM intensities peak every February-March, and reach the minimum around every October. Comparatively, the strong seasonal periodicity of Antarctic sea ice in better agreement with the observed DFM; and (2) microseism decay is not synchronous with sea ice expansion since the microseism intensity is also linked to the source location, source intensity (e.g., ocean storms, ocean wave field), and other factors. Finally, we discuss the effect of Southern Annular Mode on Antarctic sea ice and microseisms, as well as the current limitations and potential of employing seismological investigations to elucidate Antarctic sea ice variations and climate change. 相似文献
18.
Volcanic glass shards from three tephra layers at 788, 1457, 1711 m depth in the 2164-m Byrd Station ice core from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet were analysed by electron microprobe. Glass shards within each tephra layer are homogeneous and have peralkaline trachyte compositions. Mt. Takahe, 450 km north-northwest of the drill site is considered the most likely eruptive source, although Toney Mountain, 460 km to the north is also a possible source. Tephra layers in ice cores from the West Antarctic ice sheet may offer a valuable tool for stratigraphic correlation. 相似文献
19.
利用5年的GRACE重力数据,计算了南极1°×1°等效水量时间序列,得到每个格网的趋势项,结果表明在西南极Amundsen区域有明显的负增长,超过-80 mm/a,南极半岛存在着负增长,东南极Enderby Land地区质量增长;计算得到2002年7月到2007年9月南极、东南极和西南极冰盖的等效体积变化分别为-78±37 km3/a,-3±46 km3/a和-75±50 km3/a,对应海平面变化的贡献为0.21±0.1 mm/a,0.008±0.127 mm/a和0.2±0.14 mm/a.该结果与国际最新研究结果一致.同时发现冰后回弹是影响利用GRACE研究南极冰盖质量变化的关键因素. 相似文献
20.
Ice Sheets and Sea Level: Thinking Outside the Box 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Michiel R. Van den Broeke Jonathan Bamber Jan Lenaerts Eric Rignot 《Surveys in Geophysics》2011,32(4-5):495-505
Until quite recently, the mass balance (MB) of the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica was poorly known and often treated as a residual in the budget of oceanic mass and sea level change. Recent developments in regional climate modelling and remote sensing, especially altimetry, gravimetry and InSAR feature tracking, have enabled us to specifically resolve the ice sheet mass balance components at a near-annual timescale. The results reveal significant mass losses for both ice sheets, caused by the acceleration of marine-terminating glaciers in southeast, west and northwest Greenland and coastal West Antarctica, and increased run-off in Greenland. At the same time, the data show that interannual variability is very significant, masking the underlying trends. 相似文献