共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 140 毫秒
1.
前言 从历史资料分析,某个区域的地震时间分布(时序)并非毫无规律可寻,而是近似地服从某一分布的,根据时间序列分析来进行中长期预报是有可能的。文献[1][2]利用灰色建模方法得出预报模型初步证实了这一点。本文将给出一种较方便的建模方法(回归法)来对地震发生时间进行预报,在某些情况下,其效果明显优于文献[1][2]。 相似文献
2.
主震与余震的震级统计关系及其地震动模型参数 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
本文从文献[1,2,3]中按一定的筛选原则,挑选出49组主、余震震级资料,通过回归分析,统计出了主震震级与余震震级之间的经验公式。然后,从结构在主、余震作用下的反应分析和抗震设计的需要出发,给出了确定主余震地震动时程曲线的方法,并以文献[4]为基础,确定了主震与余震的随机地震动模型及其参数。 相似文献
3.
4.
针对悬浮泥沙影响水体遥感测深精度的问题,选择长江口南港至南槽为研究区,通过对遥感测深方法研究,结合悬浮泥沙光谱特性分析,把"泥沙因子"引入到水体遥感测深反演模型中,研究表明:1)单因子非线性模型中,指数模型对0-2m的水深反演效果较好,对数模型对2-7m的水深反演较好,二次回归模型对7-14m的水深反演效果较好:2)建立的BP人工神经网络水深反演模型综合了多个波段具有的水深信息,模型的反演效果好于单因子非线性模型;3)实验构建的泥沙遥感参数综合了不同波段具有的悬沙信息,削弱了叶绿素和外界环境条件对泥沙信息的干扰,可较好地反映悬沙浓度变化特征;4)建立的BP人工神经网络泥沙因子水深反演模型削弱了悬浮泥沙对遥感测深的影响,模型实际反演能力明显优于单因子非线性模型和多因子BP人工神经网络水深反演模型. 相似文献
5.
6.
依据美国NGA两个版本的数据库,修正、补充了文献[3]的震源全局参数基础数据,形成分别包含189个地震的数据1和204个地震的数据2,分别在三种破裂类型、五(三)个震级段,统计得出矩震级与破裂面的面积、宽度、长度以及破裂面上平均错动量四个震源全局参数之间的经验关系和半经验关系。与文献[3]的结果比较表明,数据量增加后系数值的差异不明显,最大相对差分别为12.4%和8.4%,且统计结果离散减小,稳定性增加。采用本文结果建立震源模型,对一个7.0级走滑地震合成的近场4个地表点的高频地震动,得到的平均反应谱幅值、峰值总体上略大于用文献[3]参数合成的,平均值的相对差在4.6%~23.0%间,随距离增加差别有所减小。 相似文献
7.
8.
9.
太湖波浪数值模拟 总被引：8，自引：7，他引：1
在太湖实际波浪观测的基础上,采用率定验证后的第三代动谱平衡方程,考虑实际水底地形、波浪折射、浅化、反射、破碎、湖流等条件下,对太湖波浪进行数值模拟,研究太湖波浪的主要影响因素.结果表明:SWAN模型可以较好地模拟风作用下太湖风浪的生成和传播过程,模型在太湖应用是合适的;波高、波长、波周期等波浪参数在太湖的分布与风速、风向、水深等因素密切相关;在相同风向、不同风速情况下,太湖波浪发展至稳定状态的时间不一样;在不同风向,相同风速持续作用下,有效波高达到稳定的时间差不多,变化趋势也比较相同.说明波浪的发展不光取决于风速的大小,还同风的持续吹的时间和风区长度有关. 相似文献
10.
应用动态系统时间连续模型建立的新方法[DM(n,b)模型],通过对山西地区Ms≥5.5地震的建模,讨论DM(n,h)模型对小区域地震预测的可行性.并给出了山西地区的地震预报结果. 相似文献
11.
An unstructured mesh model of the west coast of Britain, covering the same domain and using topography and open boundary forcing
that are identical to a previous validated uniform grid finite difference model of the region, is used to compare the performance
of a finite volume (FV) and a finite element (FE) model of the area in determining tide–surge interaction in the region. Initial
calculations show that although qualitatively both models give comparable tidal solutions in the region, comparison with observations
shows that the FV model tends to under-estimate tidal amplitudes and hence background tidal friction in the eastern Irish
Sea. Storm surge elevations in the eastern Irish Sea due to westerly, northerly and southerly uniform wind stresses computed
with the FV model tend to be slightly higher than those computed with the FE model, due to differences in background tidal
friction. However, both models showed comparable non-linear tide–surge interaction effects for all wind directions, suggesting
that they can reproduce the extensive tide–surge interaction processes that occur in the eastern Irish Sea. Following on from
this model comparison study, the physical processes contributing to surge generation and tide–surge interaction in the region
are examined. Calculations are performed with uniform wind stresses from a range of directions, and the balance of various
terms in the hydrodynamic equations is examined. A detailed comparison of the spatial variability of time series of non-linear
bottom friction and non-linear momentum advection terms at six adjacent nodes at two locations in water depths of 20 and 6 m
showed some spatial variability from one node to another. This suggests that even in the near coastal region, where water
depths are of the order of 6 m and the mesh is fine (of order 0.5 km), there is significant spatial variability in the non-linear
terms. In addition, distributions of maximum bed stress due to tides and wind forcing in nearshore regions show appreciable
spatial variability. This suggests that intensive measurement campaigns and very high-resolution mesh models are required
to validate and reproduce the non-linear processes that occur in these regions and to predict extreme bed stresses that can
give rise to sediment movement. High-resolution meshes will also be required in pollution transport problems. 相似文献
12.
通过X射线衍射和化学分析等方法,研究了云南水电站断层泥中伊利石物理化学特征,结果显示：①伊利石物质的X射线衍射特征为⊿[（002）-（001）] ＞8,Ir＞1,BB1 ＜4°,属I＋ISII有序混层,膨胀层小于15％,晶胞参数b0=8.991A,1M多型结构;②K2O的平均含量9.1％变化范围在8.5％-10％之间;③K2O和Fe2O3含量之间为负相关,K2O含量与⊿[（002）-（001）] 2θ值呈正相关,而K2O与Ir值呈负相关.上述特征表明该断层泥伊利石是在低温（小于200℃）低压环境下生成.它的形成与断层稳定滑动机制有关.由此推测该断层未来发生大地震的可能性较小. 相似文献
13.
震源深度是核试验以及塌陷等浅源地震研究中的关键参数,可以为事件成因分析提供关键信息.然而朝鲜核试验区域地形起伏较大,地形效应可能对震源深度反演的结果造成影响.本文基于理论地震图进行测试,研究了地形起伏对震源深度反演的影响.发现震源深度小于2km时,不考虑地形影响,反演得到的震源深度会系统偏浅0.2km左右.然后利用MDJ2速度结构模型,我们反演了2017年9月3日朝鲜M6.3事件的震源参数,结果显示震源深度约为0.8km.进一步基于带地形的格林函数重新反演了该事件的震源深度,发现在1km处波形拟合结果较好.不同速度模型测试结果显示该事件的震源深度反演误差约为1km.案例研究表明,基于层状均匀速度模型,利用区域地震波形资料反演的震源深度可以为浅源事件成因分析提供关键约束. 相似文献
14.
An unstructured grid storm surge model of the west coast of Britain, incorporating a high-resolution representation of the
Mersey estuary is used to examine storm surge dynamics in the region. The focus of the study is the major surge that occurred
during the period 11–14 November 1977, which has been investigated previously using uniform grid finite difference models
and a finite element model of the west coast of Britain. However, none of these models included the Mersey estuary. Comparison
of solutions in the eastern Irish Sea with those computed with these earlier models showed that, away from the Liverpool Bay
region, the inclusion of the Mersey estuary had little effect. However, at the entrance to the Mersey, its inclusion did influence
the solution. By including a detailed representation of the Mersey estuary within the model, it was possible to conduct a
detailed study of storm surge propagation in the Mersey, which had never previously been performed. This detailed study showed
for the first time that the surge’s temporal variability within the estuary is influenced by surge elevation at its entrance.
This varies with time as a function of spatial and temporal variations of wind stress over the west coast of Britain. Within
the Mersey, calculations show that the spatial variability is mainly determined by changes in bottom topography, which had
not been included in earlier finite difference models. However, since water depth is influenced by variations in tidal elevation,
this, together with tide surge interaction through bottom friction and momentum advection, influences the surge. The ability
of the finite element model to vary the mesh in near-shore regions to such an extent that it can resolve the Mersey and hence
the impact of the Mersey estuary upon the Liverpool Bay circulation shows that it has distinct advantages over earlier finite
difference models. In the absence of detailed measurements within the Mersey at the time of the surge, it was not possible
to validate predicted surge elevations within the Mersey. However, significant insight into physical processes influencing
the surge propagation down the estuary, its reflection and spatial/temporal variability could be gained. 相似文献
15.
《Continental Shelf Research》2006,26(12-13):1519-1541
Initially a brief overview of the problem of computing the wind-induced circulation on the west coast of Britain is reviewed together with storm surge modelling. To date this work has primarily been performed with finite difference models. However, here new work is presented using a finite element model with a range of mesh refinements in shallow water regions to examine the influence of mesh resolution upon the wind-induced circulation off the west coast of Britain. Steady state current fields are computed for uniform westerly and southerly winds and compared with a uniform grid (of order 7 km) finite difference model solution. Calculations show that in deep water regions away from the coastal influence, the large-scale circulation features in the finite element solution are in good agreement with those found in the finite difference model. This suggests that they can be adequately resolved on a 7 km mesh. In the nearshore region and within estuaries a significantly finer mesh is required, with the variable mesh finite element model showing significant small scale variability in the nearshore area. Refining the mesh in the Mersey and using an accurate topographic data set, shows that although the larger scale features in the estuary can be resolved in the coarser mesh model, accurate topography is required to model their exact location. In addition smaller scale features are found that were not resolved in the coarser mesh models. Due to the effects of “wetting and drying” and the importance of non-linear processes in shallow regions difficulties occurred in de-tiding the full solution in order to determine the wind forced residual. Determining the wind forced solution in shallow water from a calculation in which wind and tidal forcing are included poses problems as to how to “de-tide” the solution in such a highly non-linear region. An approach based upon the harmonic analysis of the total solution, rather than subtracting a “tide only” solution is shown to be most effective and has implications for storm surge prediction.General and specific conclusions on the importance of highly accurate bathymetry, good mesh resolution and de-tiding method upon the accuracy of the wind forced solution in nearshore regions are summarized in the final part of the paper. The implications for storm surge prediction together with suggestions for future research to enhance the accuracy of storm surge prediction, namely “the way forward” are given at the end of the paper. 相似文献
16.
利用京津冀城市群地区6个观测站风廓线雷达夏季一个月同步观测资料,对其进行了风功率谱和小波分析.越接近地面,测站之间风的周期变化特征差异越明显,离地面越远,差异不显著.各站大于1天周期的频谱特征差异小,而小于1天周期的频谱特征差异大.各站频谱在几百米高度有明显日变化.不同位置的测站其日变化周期信号随高度分布表现为不同程度的地形影响效应.部分测站1km高度以下风功率谱在大于1天高频区近似满足-5/3幂分布规律.降水过程风频谱在低层普遍有小于1天的高频周期,这与降水过程高低空风速起伏和变化密切相关.各站平均风矢量日变化在5∶00—6∶00、20∶00—21∶00有明显风速变化和风向转换,1500m以下风向变化差异显著,偏南风出现时间及影响高度与该地区的山谷风和海陆风相联系.各站之间风速相关系数随高度分布呈现出低层低、上层高的特点.最后还给出了风廓线雷达布网建议. 相似文献
17.
搜集了青藏高原及其邻近区域的S波速度三维层析成像结果和2万多个实测重力点资料，将重力资料进行各种改正并网格化为30′×30′的布格重力异常．首先采用密度差与S波速度差之间的经验关系式，建立青藏地区岩石层密度的初始模型，再利用布格重力异常进行阻尼最小二乘法反演，得到青藏地区岩石层三维密度分布结果．反演结果表明：（1）青藏高原岩石层密度分布不仅在纵向上不均匀，而且在横向存在明显的不均匀．在深度10－70km范围内，高原整体呈低密度特性，在50－70km深度范围内低密度特征更加突出，与周缘地区存在0，1g／cm3的密度差．而在90－110km深度范围内，高原岩石层地幔显示密度高．（2）岩层密度分布与大地构造有明显相关的分区性，显示出青藏块体、巴颜喀拉块体、塔里木块体和印度块体． 相似文献
18.
介绍了高速铁路防风明洞的基本作用及设计方法;利用计算流体动力学原理中的数学模型及控制方程,对兰新第二双线铁路防风明洞大风作用下的风荷载进行了分析;通过计算工况的假定以及边界条件的合理设定,采用有限体积法建立防风明洞数值分析模型,并模拟计算了平地路段、浅路堑地段和路堤地段三大类工况和70、60、50、40m/s4种风速情况。研究结果表明：①开孔情况下,明洞各部位所受风荷载随着风速增大而增大;②明洞迎风侧均为正压,平地地段与路堤地段所受正压较接近,最大值出现在风速为70m/s时,迎风边墙正压为3202Pa;③明洞拱顶及背风侧均为负压,浅路堑地段所受负压最大值出现在风速为70m/s时,拱顶负压为-3550Pa;④各地段背风侧所受负压均小于-1500Pa,背风墙脚与背风边墙受力基本相同;⑤各地段各风速情况下,拱顶处负压均为最大;⑥开孔情况下的明洞各部位风荷载,普遍小于不开孔情况;⑦明洞开孔附近有回流风速,并随着外界风速增大而增大。 相似文献
19.
A two-dimensional vertically integrated hydrodynamic finite-element model of the west coast of Britain is used to examine
the response of the region to extreme meteorological forcing. The extent to which tide–surge interaction modifies the computed
surge elevation and current distributions is examined in detail. The nature of the finite-element model with its ability to
refine the mesh in nearshore regions is ideal for examining the influence of non-linear effects upon surges in these regions.
Calculations using spatially uniform orthogonal wind stresses show that the surge elevation and current in shallow water are
particularly sensitive to the method used to remove the tide as a result of the highly non-linear nature of the tide–surge
interaction in these regions. The most accurate means of de-tiding the solution is by subtracting a tide derived by harmonic
analysis of the tide and surge time series at the time of the surge. Subtracting a tide-only solution (the usual approach)
leads to tidal energy leaking into the surge solution. Calculations show that this arises because the surge modifies the tidal
amplitude and phase in shallow-water regions to such an extent that they are appreciably different to those found in the tide-only
calculation. Results suggest that this problem becomes more important, as nearshore meshes are refined in an attempt to improve
surge prediction. This suggests that in the future, highly accurate fine-mesh models will be required to compute total water
levels without the present linear separation into tidal and surge signal used in operational surge prediction. 相似文献
20.
为评估全球潮汐模型在我国潮汐改正中的适用性,本文首先对10个重力站2016—2018年的观测数据进行了精度评定,而后基于均方根、和方根、纬度依赖关系以及重力残差等指标对7个全球潮汐模型进行了精度评定。结果表明:10个重力站的一些评价指标达到甚至超越了早期超导重力仪,例如M2波潮汐因子的中误差普遍小于0.000 70,其中最高精度约为0.000 14,5个主要潮波的稳定度均≤0.001 5。在10个观测模型和7个全球潮汐模型中,DDW-NHi和M2001模型考虑了地球扁率的影响,基于这两个模型计算的和方根较其它模型所得的和方根均小,约为0.288×10?8 m/s2。基于最高精度的乌什站数据对Molodensky, DDW-NHi,M2001与观测模型的改正精度的对比显示,DDW-NHi模型改正计算的重力残差（±0.4×10?8—±1.0×10?8 m/s2）不及观测模型（±0.1×10?8—±0.5×10?8 m/s2）,但依然优于M2001模型（±0.7×10?8—±1.4×10?8 m/s2）,且DDW-NHi模型改正获得的残差比传统的Molodensky模型所得残差（±0.5×10?8—±1.5×10?8 m/s2）小1×10?8—2×10?8 m/s2. 相似文献