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1.
In seismology according to Båth’s well-known law, the magnitude of the strongest aftershock is on average by unity lower than the magnitude of the main shock. At the same time, most of the strongest aftershocks typically occur within a few hours after the main shock. From the practical standpoint, this activity is quite naturally perceived as a direct continuation of the main earthquake. The subsequent strong aftershocks occur against the rarer background shocks, are less expected, and therefore constitute a separate hazard. The average difference in magnitudes between the main shock and the strongest aftershock that occurs a certain time after the main shock gradually increases. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the magnitudes of the strongest future aftershock at the successive instants of time after the main shock without taking into account the information about the aftershocks that have already occurred before a given time. For these estimates, we construct the theoretical distributions whose shape proves to be independent of time, whereas the time dependence of the shift in the magnitude proves to be known a priori. The predetermination of these dependences at the moment of the strong earthquake gives us grounds to characterize the constructed theoretical model as Båth’s dynamic law. 相似文献
2.
The aftershock processes that occurred in 1990?C2008 on the Kamchatka Peninsula and in the adjacent water area are numerically modeled with the aim of forecasting the aftershock activity. The aftershocks are identified by the Molchan-Dmitrieva algorithm followed by the analysis of spatiotemporal distribution of the earthquakes, which gives the final aftershock sequences. The simulations are based on the relaxation and triggering models of the aftershock processes. The studied models adequately describe and reliably simulate the temporal behavior of the aftershock sequences. An attempt is made to forecast the aftershock processes in Kamchatka using the ETAS model. It is shown that forecasting based on the data observed during the preceding time intervals is quite accurate. This approach can be applied in the centers of seismological monitoring for estimating the aftershock activity within the first days after a strong earthquake. 相似文献
3.
The aftershock processes that occurred in 1990–2008 on the Kamchatka Peninsula and in the adjacent water area are numerically modeled with the aim of forecasting the aftershock activity. The aftershocks are identified by the Molchan-Dmitrieva algorithm followed by the analysis of spatiotemporal distribution of the earthquakes, which gives the final aftershock sequences. The simulations are based on the relaxation and triggering models of the aftershock processes. The studied models adequately describe and reliably simulate the temporal behavior of the aftershock sequences. An attempt is made to forecast the aftershock processes in Kamchatka using the ETAS model. It is shown that forecasting based on the data observed during the preceding time intervals is quite accurate. This approach can be applied in the centers of seismological monitoring for estimating the aftershock activity within the first days after a strong earthquake.
相似文献4.
E. A. Rogozhin A. I. Lutikov L. E. Sobisevich To Shen K. Kh. Kanonidi 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(4):534-549
The characteristics of the foci for the main shock and strongest aftershocks of the Gorkha earthquake of April 25, 2015 in Nepal are described. The macroseismic data and examples of seismic dislocations are discussed. The progression of the release of seismic energy by the aftershock process is analyzed. The data for the geophysical and seismological precursors of the main shock and the strongest aftershock of May 12, 2015 are presented. These data allowed us to formulate the short-term forecast of this event. 相似文献
5.
Forecasting aftershock activity: 1. Adaptive estimates based on the Omori and Gutenberg–Richter laws
The method for forecasting the intensity of the aftershock processes after strong earthquakes in different magnitude intervals is considered. The method is based on the joint use of the time model of the aftershock process and the Gutenberg–Richter law. The time model serves for estimating the intensity of the aftershock flow with a magnitude larger than or equal to the magnitude of completeness. The Gutenberg–Richter law is used for magnitude scaling. The suggested approach implements successive refinement of the parameters of both components of the method, which is the main novelty distinguishing it from the previous ones. This approach, to a significant extent, takes into account the variations in the parameters of the frequency–magnitude distribution, which often show themselves by the decreasing fraction of stronger aftershocks with time. Testing the method on eight aftershock sequences in the regions with different patterns of seismicity demonstrates the high probability of successful forecasts. The suggested technique can be employed in seismological monitoring centers for forecasting the aftershock activity of a strong earthquake based on the results of operational processing. 相似文献
6.
选取IRIS远震台站波形数据,反演了云南漾濞MS6.4地震震源破裂过程,计算了断层破裂在近场产生的动态库仑破裂应力变化,并讨论了主震对近场余震活动的动态应力触发作用。结果显示:动态库仑应力演化过程与震源破裂特征反演结果一致,其大小分布与地震序列分布的疏密程度也具有较好的相关性。主震产生的静态和动态库仑破裂应力均促进余震的发生,但相比静态应力,余震位于库仑破裂应力正值区域的比例提高了21%,余震与动态库仑应力变化的正负区域有更好的一致性,动态应力能更好地解释震后余震分布的空间特征。垂直于地震序列主干10 km处出现小震丛集,该现象可能是由主震产生的动态库仑破裂应力占主导作用所致。定量分析主震对余震的动态应力触发结果显示,主震后一周内MS4.0以上的8次余震接收点均受到了动态库仑破裂应力的触发作用。 相似文献
7.
大地震后强余震活跃,震后快速判断最大余震震级和强余震发生可能性对提高应急救援效率有重大意义。针对震后应急救援,本文根据救援存活率将震后救援期分为8个时段:震后12 h、震后24 h、震后48 h、震后72 h、震后96 h、震后120 h、震后144 h和震后168 h。对我国大陆地区1966年以来6级及以上地震强余震资料进行分时段统计,分别拟合出8个时段的最大余震震级和主震震级的经验公式;并提出震后强余震发生可能性的经验判断方法,通过本文提出的可能性指数a,依据主震震级,震后可以快速判定强余震发生的可能性。 相似文献
8.
K. Nishigami 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2006,163(2-3):601-616
The 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture earthquake (MJMA 6.8) and its aftershock sequences generated complicated, i.e., several conjugate fault planes in their source region. In
order to understand the generating process of these earthquakes, we estimated a 3-D distribution of relative scattering coefficients
in the source region. The large slip area during the main shock rupture seems to be bounded by strong heterogeneous zones
with larger scattering coefficients. Hypocenters of the main shock and major large aftershocks with M 5-6 classes tend to be located close to stronger scattering areas. We found that one of these strong heterogeneities already
existed before the occurrence of the M 5.9 aftershock on November 8. We suppose that heterogeneous structures in the source region of this earthquake sequence affected
the initiation and growth of ruptures of the main shock and major large aftershocks. 相似文献
9.
This paper deals with the rapid estimation of the hazard posed by strong aftershocks for Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands based on the 12-hour aftershocks, namely, their rate, time of expectation, and maximum magnitude. The data set consists of main shocks and aftershocks as reported in the Catalog of the Kamchatka Branch of the Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences (GS RAS) for 1968–2016. We used both the Gutenberg–Richter relation and the Omori–Utsu law to find that the aftershock rates in two time intervals are connected by a relationship of proportionality, with the constant of proportionality being independent of the lowest magnitude of these earthquakes. With this property in mind, we calculated the constants of proportionality for estimating the rate of aftershocks with a magnitude above threshold values based on the data for the first 12 hours after the main shock. We have derived easily remembered rules for estimating the aftershock rates that can be expected for 5 days and for 1 month with magnitudes above a fixed value based on the 12-hour aftershock observations. We also derived empirical regression relations to estimate the magnitude of the largest aftershock that can be expected to occur during 1 year after the main shock and the time of the last aftershock to occur whose magnitude is 5.2 or greater. 相似文献
10.
中强地震余震序列地震目录编目是否完备、 震源参数是否准确,直接影响余震序列特征分析、 震后趋势快速判断和强余震预测等研究结果的科学性和可靠性. 2013年7月22日甘肃岷县-漳县MS6.6地震余震序列目录中存在较多单台记录地震事件,地震观测报告仅给出其震级,而未给出震中位置. 由于余震波形间的相互交叠干扰,使得余震最大振幅的测量误差较大,造成地震观测报告给出的单台事件震级误差较大. 精确估计单台记录地震事件的震中和震级,能够补充完善现有地震目录,提高地震目录的完备性. 本文对单台记录地震事件震中和震级的估计不仅限于单个台站,而是通过分析区域台网中多个台站的波形记录实现. 首先以余震序列中震级较大、 波形记录信噪比较高的地震波形作为模板,使用波形互相关震相检测技术,检测单台记录的地震事件在多个台站的震相到时. 如果能在4个以上台站检测到震相,则利用测震台网常用的HYPOSAT方法估计其震中位置,并利用多个台站记录波形与模板地震的振幅比估计其震级. 之后计算主震发生后不同时间的最小完备性震级,并通过线性拟合得到最小完备性震级随时间变化的表达式,以分析此地震余震序列的目录完备性. 经过计算共得到253个单台记录地震事件的震级和其中177个事件的震中位置,其震中空间分布范围与余震序列中其它地震分布范围基本一致. 震级复测以及与人工拾取震相到时误差对比表明,该方法所得震相检测和震级估计结果具有较好的可靠性. 主震及最大余震发生后的短时间内,有较多数量单台事件的目录所给出的震级偏低,分析认为可能受主震与较大余震后续震相以及余震间相互干扰所致. 主震发生0.02—0.3天内,其余震序列最小完备性震级随时间的对数呈线性下降,在0.3天后最小完备性震级稳定在ML1.1左右. 相似文献
11.
O. D. Zotov A. D. Zavyalov A. V. Guglielmi I. P. Lavrov 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2018,54(1):178-191
Based on the observation data for hundreds of the main shocks and thousands of aftershocks, the existence of effect of round-the-world surface seismic waves is demonstrated (let us conditionally refer to them as a round-the-world seismic echo) and the manifestations of this effect in the dynamics of the repeated shocks of strong earthquakes are analyzed. At the same time, we by no means believe this effect has been fully proven. We only present a version of our own understanding of the physical causes of the observed phenomenon and analyze the regularities in its manifestation. The effect is that the surface waves excited in the Earth by the main shock make a full revolution around the Earth and excite a strong aftershock in the epicentral zone of the main shock. In our opinion, the physical nature of this phenomenon consists in the fact that the superposition leads to a concentration of wave energy when the convergent surface waves reach the epicentral zone (cumulative effect). The effect of the first seismic echo is most manifest. Thus, the present work supports our hypothesis of the activation of rock failure under the cumulative impact of an round-the-world seismic echo on the source area which is releasing (“cooling”) after the main shock. The spatial regularities in the manifestations of this effect are established, and the independence of the probability of its occurrence on the main shock magnitude is revealed. The effect of a round-the-world seismic echo can be used to improve the reliability of the forecasts of strong aftershocks in determining the scenario for the seismic process developing in the epicentral zone of a strong earthquake that has taken place. 相似文献
12.
1990年4月17日乌恰6.4级地震序列有以下特征:(1)主震型序列;(2)强余震前小地震震中向强余震的震中附近迁移;(3)余震频度衰减快;(4)余震在主震和最大余震之间活动;(5)较大余震存在“密集-平静-发震”的规律;(6)存在晚期较强余震。 相似文献
13.
对2017年九寨沟MS7.0地震序列的横波分裂的时空变化特征进行了分析.通过横波窗内S波质点运动图的分析,从九寨沟地震震源区各个地震台站的近震横波记录中提取了横波分裂的快波偏振方向和慢波延迟时间.观测结果显示,震源区各台站的上地壳各向异性在空间上存在分区特征,时间上有随时间的趋势性变化特征.空间上,位于震源区北部余震区内的3个台站中,发震断层东面的台站L5112和L5111只有一个突出的快波偏振优势方向（NNE向）,而西面的L6202台有两个快波偏振优势方向（除了NNE向,还有一个近EW向）,体现了余震区剧烈调整的地壳应力和构造复杂断裂的综合作用;余震区外的3个台站中,震源区东部靠近塔藏断裂（东）附近的JZG台的快波偏振优势方向为NW向,与塔藏断裂（东）的走向一致,南部的台站L5110和L5113的快波偏振优势方向为近EW向,与区域主压应力方向一致;余震区内各台站的平均慢波延迟时间大于余震区外各台站,反映了九寨沟地震孕育过程中余震区的应力积累强于其周边区域.时间上,快波偏振方向在主震后前期离散度较大,随着时间的推移,离散度在后期有逐渐变小的趋势;慢波延迟时间在主震后较大,但随着时间的推移,也表现出逐渐减小,趋于稳定.横波分裂随时间逐渐减小和趋于稳定的变化特征反映了九寨沟地震在孕震中积累的应力,随着主震和余震的发生而导致的应力释放和调整,应力大小和调整幅度逐渐减小,后期趋于稳定. 相似文献
14.
2001年MS8.1昆仑山口西地震和2008年MS8.0汶川地震发生在同一构造单元,但其余震序列无论在个数、空间分布,还是持续时间上都表现了显著的差别.余震通常由主震区域内背景场地震活动性受到的扰动所引起,这样的扰动则来自于主震造成的应力场状态的变化.本文从滑移速率和状态相依赖的摩擦定律(Rate- and State-Dependent Friction Law)出发,结合区域主震前后的地震活动性资料,定量地估算了这两个大地震后余震序列可能的持续时间,并对不同模型所得的结果进行了比较和对比.结果表明,汶川地震余震持续时间约为昆仑山口西地震余震持续时间的20倍,这是由于昆仑山口西地震和汶川地震余震序列的个数和持续时间不仅与地震成核过程的状态变化有关,还与作用在断层面上的正应力 σN 和剪应力加载速率 τ· 的大小有关.主震前后剪应力速率 τ· 的差别导致了在相同大小应力扰动ΔCFS之后的余震的活动性变化率的明显不同,导致了所触发的余震的个数和余震序列的持续时间的巨大差别.通过对昆仑山口西地震和汶川地震余震序列的时空分布特征和持续时间的定量化认识,可以为地震灾害定量评估提供合理和有益的物理参数. 相似文献
15.
Stochastic procedure for the simulation of synthetic main shock‐aftershock ground motion sequences 
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下载免费PDF全文 According to the current seismic codes, structures are designed to resist the first damaging earthquake during their service life. However, after a strong main shock, a structure may still face damaging aftershocks. The main shock‐aftershock sequence may result in major damage and eventually the collapse of a structure. Current studies on seismic hazard mainly focus on the modeling and simulation of main shocks. This paper proposes a 3‐step procedure to generate main shock‐aftershock sequences of pairs of horizontal components of a ground motion at a site of interest. The first step generates ground motions for the main shock using either a source‐based or site‐based model. The second step generates sequences of aftershocks' magnitudes, locations, and times of occurrence using either a fault‐based or seismicity‐based model. The third step simulates pairs of ground motion components using a new empirical model proposed in this paper. We develop prediction equations for the controlling parameters of a ground motion model, where the predictors are the site condition and the aftershock characteristics from the second step. The coefficients in the prediction equations and the correlation between the model parameters (of the 2 horizontal components of 1 record and of several records in 1 sequence) are estimated using a database of aftershock accelerograms. A backward stepwise deletion method is used to simplify the initial candidate prediction equations and avoid overfitting the data. The procedure, based on easily identifiable engineering parameters, is a useful tool to incorporate effects of aftershocks into seismic analysis and design. 相似文献
16.
大森-宇津定律的一种可能机制以唐山大地震为例 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
为了探讨大森-宇津定律的物理机制, 本文在余震区等效黏度远低于其外部, 且构造应力场在整个余震活动时间间隔内基本保持不变的假设条件下, 提出了一个开尔文黏弹性地震震源体概念模型． 该模型可用于模拟主震后断层蠕变和震源区应力调整触发的余震序列以及蠕变停止后余震终结、 介质恢复到弹性状态、 断层重新闭锁和积累下一次地震的整个过程． 有限元方法可用来计算非均匀黏弹性地震震源体模型中主震和每次余震所引起的应力场及其随时间的演化过程． 在此基础上, 采用开尔文黏弹性地震震源体概念模型和有限元方法模拟了1976年唐山MS7.8地震余震序列． 结果表明: 经验的大森-宇津定律可以用开尔文黏弹性震源体模型来解释, 这意味着余震衰减的频度取决于蠕变的速率; 余震序列持续时间受控于震源体的黏度, 即黏度越大, 蠕变时间越长, 余震持续的时间也就越长． 相似文献
17.
Using the ground motion attenuation relation, we calculated and compared the effective peak acceleration (EPA) generated by main shocks and their strong aftershocks of 21 earthquake sequences with MS≥7 occurred in Chinese mainland and offing of China during 1966~2002. The result shows that EPA of strong aftershocks usually exceed that of main shock for 76.2% earthquake sequences and EPA of more than 50% strong aftershocks are greatly lar-ger than that of main shocks in large area, which suggests that it is necessary to take damage produced by strong aftershock into account in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the seismic design. 相似文献
18.
IntroductionItisshowedbyresearchesonearthquakestresstriggeringrecentlythatsmall'static'stresschangesduetopermanentfaultdisplacementcanalterthelikelihoodof,ortrigger,earthquakesonnearbyfaults(Harris,1998).Manystudiesoftriggeringinthenear-field,particularlyofaftershocks,showthesestaticchangesaretriggeringagent(Kilb,etal,2000).ReasenbergandSimpson(1992)studiedthere-sponseofregionalseismicitytothestaticstresschangeproducedbyLomaPrietaearthquake,andtheresultsshowedthataftershockratesincreasedinre… 相似文献
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预防强震后可能发生的余震对于保护灾区安全具有重要意义。为了对余震进行一定误差水平的快速判定,对主震与余震之间的关系进行分析。选取1970年1月1日—2009年9月30日全球范围5—10级地震进行预处理,采用基于最小二乘法的线性回归方法,对主震震级与最大余震震级关联关系、主震视应力与最大余震震级关联关系进行分析,并进行结果可视化。结果表明,主震与最大余震的震级存在一定线性关系,可为主震后在一定范围内对最大余震的快速判定提供一定参考。 相似文献