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滇21井水位微动态特征研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
本文通过对滇２１井的地质构造部位、水文地质条件、井孔结构等方面的论述,应用该井水位观测结果,以地下水微动态理论为指导,分析了气压、固体潮、降雨等干扰因素对水位的影响,归纳出该井水位正常动态特征,探讨了识别震兆异常的方法,为综合分析多井水位异常打下了基础。 相似文献
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针对2011年芜湖皖28井水位破年变异常,系统梳理该井相关资料,利用水位变幅、相关性分析及相对变差率进行分析.结果表明,该项异常信度较高,反映区域构造活动信息,是周边几次中等强度地震的共同前兆.通过剩余曲线、从属函数等数学方法,对该井历年水位观测数据进行异常识别.研究表明,该井水位异常主要表现为短期异常特征,与该井孔西北、西南侧中等地震有较好的对应关系. 相似文献
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地下水动态受水文因素影响较大，对地震和构造活动具有较灵敏的响应。判别并排除各种水文干扰，确认地下水在地震前的异常变化，对提高地震分析预报能力，具有重要作用。马家沟矿井水位动态观测层与地下水开采层为同一含水层，井水位于2010年出现破年变异常，加速持续上升，截至2015年，最大上升幅度约30 m。依据该井水文地质环境特征，根据唐山市区2001-2015年地下水位、降雨量、地下水开采量实测资料，建立合理多元回归模型和三维地下水流动模型，发现地下水开采量减少应为影响马家沟矿井水位动态的可能因素。文中采取的异常识别与分析方法，可为其他类似井孔的地下水动态异常识别及判定提供一定借鉴。 相似文献
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对邢台地震台地下流体数字化水位观测资料的内在质量及年、月、日动态特征等进行分析。结果表明:所辖流体观测井水位资料连续、可靠,内在质量较高,4个测点均是较理想的井水位观测点,其中,衡水井、辛集井水位对远场大震的同震效应明显;宁晋井因受井孔条件所限,同震效应不明显。井水位年变均为趋势性下降变化,但下降幅度均大于5 m,不利于地震中期或中短期地球物理异常信息的识别。在大部分月份月、日动态变化呈规律性,固体潮效应明显,这可在地震中短期地球物理异常监测中发挥一定的效能。 相似文献
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新20号井井水位动态分析及地震预测效能评价 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
对新20号井井水位动态观测资料进行了全时间过程扫描，分析了井水位的年变化规律、主要干扰因素和地震短期前兆异常特征，提出了如何判别水位年变叠加、峰谷相位移动和峰谷极差增减等异常是否打破年变规律的有效方法。根据这些指标，统计了观测期间乌鲁木齐监视区内发生5级以上地震时水位的相关异常参数，并对该井的地震预测效能进行了初步评价。 相似文献
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运用地磁差值年变率方法,对山西北部出现的趋势性地磁异常做了进一步的研究,对差值年变率动态图象作出了解释,并将处理后的差值年变率δＦ异常结合１９９９年５月１５日山西应县４．６级地震作了对应分析。 相似文献
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The parameters commonly considered to define climate are the mean annual precipitation and mean annual potential evapotranspiration. In this study an attempt has been made to develop a relationship between average drought frequency and the evapotranspiration/precipitation ratio for the arid, semi‐arid and subhumid climatic regions of India. The climatic regions are delineated using two climatic indices: namely (i) the ratio of mean annual precipitation (Pa) to global terrestrial mean annual precipitation (Pg), and (ii) the ratio of mean annual potential evapotranspiration (Ep) to mean annual precipitation (Pa). It was noted that the average drought frequency (i e., year?1.) decreases gradually from dry to wet regions. The return period varies from 2 to 3 years in the arid regions (12>Ep/Pa≥5), 3 to 5 years in semi‐arid regions (5>Ep/Pa≥2), and 5 to 8 years in sub‐humid regions (2>Ep/Pa≥3/4). Another relationship was developed between the average frequency of drought occurrence and the ratio of mean annual deficit to mean annual precipitation, (Ep?Pa)/Pa. The results have been compared with the drought experiences documented for other regions of the world. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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为了由过去的地震活动性推测将来的地震活动性,引入了地震（震级≥m）的期望年发生率v（≥m）来描述一个地区的地震活动性．根据全球地震目录（1964-1994年）以及南加州（1932-1995年）和华北（1970-1994年）两个区域地震目录资料,以统计样本量作为目录记录时间长短的相对量度,对由不同的统计样本量计算得出的地震实际年发生率v（≥m,T,t）进行了统计分析,得到三点结沦：①在统计样本量n足够大的情况下,地震实际年发生率表现出准平稳时间过程的特征,可近似地看作地震期望年发生率,本文给出了这种近似的误差（离差系数）与统计样本量之间的定量关系;②离差系数与统计样本量之间的关系与震级无关,表现出不同震级层次的相似性;③统计样本量相同时,不同震级的地震期望年发生率之间满足logv（≥）=a－bm的关系,形式上与G－R关系相似,但它给出了由小地震的统计特征估计大地震的期望年发生率及其统计误差的方法．基于上述结论,进一步讨论了地震活动性的统计特征在地震危险性分析中的潜在应用。 相似文献
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年度地震危险区预测问题的几点初步思考 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文通过我国年度地震危险区预测对应情况的简要分析，认为年度地震危险区判定的时效定位和异常依据的选取等存在值得注意的问题。提出年尺度中期或中短期地震危险区预测应根据不同地区震情跟踪研究进行科学的动态判定。 相似文献
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A. M. Dawod P. Y. Julien 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1987,1(2):127-134
Point rainfall triggers the complex processes of overland flow and surface erosion. The probability density functions of rainfall duration and intensity are coupled with a physically based dynamic formulation of rainfall-runoff-sediment transport relationships for upland areas. When considering a single storm, rainfall depth alone is a poor predictor of sediment transport because of the dispersion introduced by the effect of rainfall intensity. On a long terms basis, however, the total amount of rainfall can be used to predict total erosion losses. 相似文献
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A quarter century of declining suspended sediment fluxes in the Mississippi River and the effect of the 1993 flood 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Arthur J. Horowitz 《水文研究》2010,24(1):13-34
Annual fluxes, flow‐weighted concentrations and linear least squares trendline calculations for a number of long‐term Mississippi River Basin (MRB) sampling sites covering 1981 through 2007, whilst somewhat ‘noisy’, display long‐term patterns of decline. Annual flow‐weighted concentration plots display the same long‐term patterns of decline, but are less noisy because they reduce/eliminate variations due to interannual discharge differences. The declines appear greatest in the middle MRB, but also are evident elsewhere. The pattern for the lower Ohio River differs and may reflect ongoing construction at the Olmsted lock and dam that began in 1993 and currently is ongoing. The ‘Great Flood of 1993’ appears to have superimposed a step function (a sharp drop) on the long‐term rate of decline in suspended sediment concentrations (SSC), annual fluxes and flow‐weighted concentrations in the middle MRB at St Louis and Thebes, Missouri and Vicksburg, Mississippi, and in the lower MRB at St Francisville, Louisiana. Evidence for a step function at other sites is less substantial, but may have occurred. The step function appears to have resulted from losses in available (erodible) sediment, rather than to a reduction in discharge; hence, the MRB appears to be supply limited rather than discharge limited. These evaluations support the need for daily discharge and SSC data collections in the MRB to better address questions regarding long‐term trends in sediment‐related issues. This is apparent when the results for the Mississippi River at Thebes and St Louis sites are compared with those from other MRB sites where intensive (daily) data collections are lacking. Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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A low‐lying part of the Croatian capital, Zagreb, is exposed to flood risk from the Sava River. The biggest flood to data, with catastrophic consequences, occurred on 26 November 1964. To protect Zagreb from the Sava River floods, a flood control system was built and set in operation at the end of 1978. The Sava River's flood response changed over time as a result of this constructed system, as well as other anthropogenic and natural influences. The series of maximum annual Sava River stages and discharges measured at the Zagreb gauging station from 1926 to 2004 were analysed. Hydrological methods were used in order to assess Zagreb safety from the Sava River floods in the new conditions. This paper detects changes in high water occurrence in the Sava River near Zagreb. Long‐term stages and linear trends in discharges were examined. A simple technique for the conversion of stages to actual river channel morphology conditions was used. The technique presented in this paper enabled the recalculation of flood probabilities. It is stressed that for a complete understanding of floods, an examination should include the study of parameters of both maximum stages and maximum discharges. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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本文对川西地震重点监视防御区近年年度（中期）地震趋势的预报进行了跟踪分析和预测依据的审视，同时对监测预报方法的局限和预报思路的拓展问题进行了思考。 相似文献
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An scientific evaluation of annual earthquake prediction ability 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Introduction There have been nearly 40 years for earthquake prediction since the research on earthquake prediction was carried out in plan by some advanced countries since 1960s. For the hard long process of earthquake prediction, Alen, American famous scientist and former president of the evaluation commission of earthquake prediction in California, USA, said that the difficulty of earthquake prediction is more than the expected and the practical progress of earthquake prediction is more sl… 相似文献