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1.
The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth’s surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach.
相似文献2.
D. S. Molodenskii 《Seismic Instruments》2011,47(3):246-252
It has become possible to apply efficiently Beaumont and Berger’s idea (1974) about the possibility to predict earthquakes using continuous monitoring of temporal variations of the tidal response only in recent years, with the appearance of GPS data on the field of the Earth’s surface displacements in seismic regions, as well as with the appearance of the Global Seismographic Network (GSN) containing the tidal tiltmetric and gravimetric data in the vicinities of the epicenters of strong earthquakes in Peru (2001), Sumatra (2004), and Chile (2010) before and after the strongest seismic events. Below, we present the results of the modeling of temporal variations of the tidal response of the environment in the vicinities of the focus of catastrophic earthquakes. The model of the focus includes data on the expansion and orientation of the fault surface, as well as on the discontinuity of the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite shores. The model is constructed from the GPS data on horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth’s surface. 相似文献
3.
M. S. Molodenskii 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2009,45(9):832-837
The paper presents the results of analytical and numerical model calculations of elastic surface displacements caused by earthquakes
and the processes of earthquake nucleation. The analytical calculations are focused on the model of a homogeneous elastic
space; the numerical calculations also cover models of radially inhomogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust
and upper mantle described by the PREM model. 相似文献
4.
搜集了1900-2013年间发生在中国大陆及其邻区的震源机制解资料,详细整理了其中的70个7级及以上大震的震源参数、地表破裂带和地表位移资料。根据资料的完整程度将地震分成三类: A类存在地表破裂和地表位移观测资料; B类存在地表破裂资料,但缺少地表位移观测数据;C类缺少地表破裂带和地表位移观测资料。对B类和C类缺少地表位移观测数据的地震,利用三角形模型模拟其位移分布。再根据地表位移分布及地震破裂带与本文使用网格模型之间的位置关系将地震分段。最后,利用分段前、后的地震数据和改进的双三次样条方法反演研究区域的形变场模型。结果表明:①大震资料的分段处理改进了地震数据的反演结果,提高了反演模型的合理性和空间一致性;在喜马拉雅断裂带,形变场具有更好的连续性,其变形特征与地质等数据的反演结果基本吻合;塔里木盆地和阿尔金断裂的形变量减小,与该区域较低的地震活动性一致;戈壁一阿尔泰的变形从SE的挤压和NE的拉张调整到NE的挤压和NW的拉张;鄂尔多斯西缘的拉张分量明显减小。②113年的地震资料解释了印度板块向欧亚板块运动总速率的30~50%,存在20 mm/a左右的速度亏损,该亏损量可能包括断层蠕动、褶皱等非震形变,未监测到或者缺失的地震,及以弹性应变能形式存在通过潜在地震释放的应变 相似文献
5.
M. S. Molodenskiy D. S. Molodenskiy T. A. Begitova 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(2):210-217
The idea of forecasting the earthquakes by continuous monitoring the time variations of tidal responses was suggested by E. Nishimura in 1950. However, the implementation of this idea has only become possible with the deployment of the GSN and F-net global seismic networks. Below, we present the new method for identifying the time variations of tidal response of the medium in seismically active regions using the data from these networks. We show that our approach significantly increases the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard methods of moving spectral analysis. The analysis of the data from the horizontal pendulums which record the northward tilts demonstrates the slow growth of the tidal tilts during six years before the earthquake, which is followed by the instantaneous drop of the amplitudes at the moment of the earthquake. During four years after this drop, the tidal amplitudes remained at a noticeably lower level than their average preearthquake values. These changes in the tidal amplitudes indicate the nonlinear response of the medium in the presence of large tectonic 相似文献
6.
D. S. Molodenskii 《Seismic Instruments》2011,47(3):289-293
The idea of Beaumont and Berger [Beaumont and Berger, 1974] about the possibility of earthquake prediction by means of continuous
monitoring of temporal changes in tidal response was able to achieve effective application only in recent years after the
appearance of GPS-data on the Earth’s surface displacement field in the seismic regions and the Global Seismographic Network
(GSN), containing tidal, tiltmetric, and gravimetric data of measurements in the epicentral areas. The results of statistical
analysis of the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the epicenters of the earthquakes in Peru (2001), in Sumatra
(2004), and in Chile (2010) are presented. 相似文献
7.
根据已发布震源机制解目录（哈佛大学CMT）,将青藏高原东部及邻区划分为5个构造应力场分区,并对各分区的地震逐个计算其发震断层面上的固体潮汐正应力、剪应力、库仑破裂应力及相位角,分析潮汐应力分量对不同类型发震断层的作用效果及其随深度变化特征.基于库仑破裂应力判断准则,研究潮汐应力对各种类型地震的触发作用;基于Schuster检验方法,统计分析潮汐应力对各个震级档、不同构造类型地震的影响.综合运用上述两种分析方法,探讨潮汐应力对不同震级地震以及处于不同构造块体、发震断层、震源深度地震的触发机制.结果表明,潮汐应力对印度块体和拉萨块体的正断和逆断型地震,滇缅泰块体、印支块体和松潘-甘孜块体的走滑和斜滑型地震,川滇菱形块体的斜滑型地震均存在不同程度的触发效应,且触发效应的强弱依赖于震源深度、震级大小、发震断层类型及其所处区域构造应力场. 相似文献
8.
近年来,人们越来越多地注意到地震发生前所存在着的地温增高的各种异常现象.本文以这些异常现象为根据,试图探讨地热变化与地震孕育的关系.文章假定,无限弹性介质中含有椭圆盘状断层面,并以此断层面为热通道.考虑在压应力作用下,温度为 x,y 的线性函数分布在此通道内,根据线弹性断裂力学观点,借助断裂力学中三维问题的解法,求出了断层面边缘附近的应力场和应力强度因子.结果表明,热应力有千巴的量级,并较定量地讨论了热应力大小与介质线膨胀系数的关系.最后简要地讨论了介质线膨胀系数的变化对地震孕育的影响. 相似文献
9.
O. I. Aptikaeva 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2012,48(5):385-394
The temporal variations in shear-wave attenuation field in several focal zones of the strong earthquakes that occurred in the Earth??s crust and the upper mantle in the Garm region (Tajikistan) between 1980 and1991 are investigated by analyzing the detailed structure of coda envelopes of the local earthquakes. The significant role of fluids in the formation of the source zones of the strong Garm earthquakes is shown. The influence of the nonuniform rotation of the Earth on the dynamics of the deep fluid regime and seismicity is considered. 相似文献
10.
GPS data from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) are used to derive far-field co-seismic displacements induced by the Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. Significant horizontal displacements about 30 mm, 10 mm, and 20 mm were caused by this large event in northeast China, north China, and on the Korean peninsula respectively. Vectors of relatively large horizontal displacements with dominant east components pointed to the epicenter of this earthquake. The east components show an exponential decay with the longitude, which is characteristic of the decay of the co-seismic horizontal displacements associated with earthquakes of thrust rupture. The exponential fit of the east components shows that the influence of the co-seismic displacements can be detected by GPS at a distance of about 3200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. By considering the capability of the far field displacements for constraining the inversion of the fault slip model of the earthquake, we use spherically stratified Earth models to simulate the co-seismic displacements induced by this event. Using computations and comparisons, we discuss the effects of parameters of layered Earth models on the results of dislocation modeling. Comparisons of the modeled and observed displacements show that far field GPS observations are effective for constraining the fault slip model. The far field horizontal displacements observed by GPS are used to modify the slips and seismic moments of fault slip models. The result of this work is applicable as a reference for other researchers to study seismic source rupture and crustal deformation. 相似文献
11.
An M8.3 earthquake struck the southwestern part of the Hellenic Arc, near the Island of Crete, in AD 365, generating a tsunami
that affected almost the entire eastern Mediterranean region. Taking into account that the time history of seismicity in this
region is fairly complete for such earthquakes in the historical catalog, which can be dated as back as the 5th century B.C.,
there is no indication that this segment of plate boundary has been fully ruptured again. The seismic hazard associated with
this part of the Hellenic Arc necessitates the evaluation of the rupture characteristics of this great event. The constraint
of the faulting geometry was initially achieved by using information from seismicity, and the focal mechanisms of earthquakes
that occurred during the instrumental period. A rupture model for this great earthquake is constructed by assuming an elastic
medium and calculating the theoretical surface displacements for various fault models that are matched with the observed surface
deformation gleaned from historical reports. The resulted fault model concerns thrust faulting with a rupture length of 160
km and a seismic moment of 5.7 × 1028 dyn·cm, an average slip of 8.9 m and a corresponding moment magnitude equal to 8.4, in excellent agreement with the macroseismic
estimation. The absence of such events recurrence is an indication of the lack of complete seismic coupling that is common
in subduction zones, which is in accordance with the back arc spreading of the Aegean microplate and with previous results
showing low coupling for extensional strain of the upper plate. 相似文献
12.
本文基于三维孔隙弹性理论,建立了紫坪铺水库及周边地区的有限元模型.根据紫坪铺水库开始蓄水到汶川地震发震时刻的水位变化情况,计算了整个区域的孔隙压力和库仑应力.详细讨论了断层及周围地层的弹性模量和扩散系数对计算结果的影响.计算结果表明:从弹性角度看,断层的弹性模量对汶川地震震源处的库仑应力影响很小;震源处的库仑应力随着断层和周围地层的扩散系数增大而增大.当给定弹性模量和扩散系数代表性值的时候,计算结果表明在汶川地震发震时刻,震源处的库仑应力变化量为+1 kPa左右,这表明紫坪铺水库使得汶川地震发震断层更加危险.是否这个量级的库仑应力就能够触发汶川地震还需要进一步探讨.通过分析库区周边小震的分布,发现小震分布区域均是库仑应力增加的地区,因此紫坪铺水库周边的小震应该与紫坪铺水库蓄水有直接关系. 相似文献
13.
The response of creeping parts of the San Andreas fault to earthquakes on nearby faults: Two examples 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
R. W. Simpson S. S. Schulz L. D. Dietz R. O. Burford 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):665-685
Rates of shallow slip on creeping sections of the San Andreas fault have been perturbed on a number of occasions by earthquakes occurring on nearby faults. One example of such perturbations occurred during the 26 January 1986 magnitude 5.3 Tres Pinos earthquake located about 10 km southeast of Hollister, California. Seven creepmeters on the San Andreas fault showed creep steps either during or soon after the shock. Both left-lateral (LL) and right-lateral (RL) steps were observed. A rectangular dislocation in an elastic half-space was used to model the coseismic fault offset at the hypocenter. For a model based on the preliminary focal mechanism, the predicted changes in static shear stress on the plane of the San Andreas fault agreed in sense (LL or RL) with the observed slip directions at all seven meters; for a model based on a refined focal mechanism, six of the seven meters showed the correct sense of motion. Two possible explanations for such coseismic and postseismic steps are (1) that slip was triggered by the earthquake shaking or (2) that slip occurred in response to the changes in static stress fields accompanying the earthquake. In the Tres Pinos example, the observed steps may have been of both the triggered and responsive kinds. A second example is provided by the 2 May 1983 magnitude 6.7 Coalinga earthquake, which profoundly altered slip rates at five creepmeters on the San Andreas fault for a period of months to years. The XMM1 meter 9 km northwest of Parkfield, California recorded LL creep for more than a year after the event. To simulate the temporal behavior of the XMM1 meter and to view the stress perturbation provided by the Coalinga earthquake in the context of steady-state deformation on the San Andreas fault, a simple time-evolving dislocation model was constructed. The model was driven by a single long vertical dislocation below 15 km in depth, that was forced to slip at 35 mm/yr in a RL sense. A dislocation element placed in the seismogenic layer under XMM1 was given a finite breaking strength of sufficient magnitude to produce a Parkfield-like earthquake every 22 years. When stress changes equivalent to a Coalinga earthquake were superposed on the model running in a steady state mode, the effect was to make a segment under XMM1, that could slip in a linear viscous fashion, creep LL and to delay the onset of the next Parkfield-like earthquake by a year or more. If static stress changes imposed by earthquakes off the San Andreas can indeed advance or delay earthquakes on the San Andreas by months or years, then such changes must be considered in intermediate-term prediction efforts. 相似文献
14.
研究了2005年2月15日乌什6.2级地震前3个月中在乌什附近形成的北西向小震条带.结果表明,条带中显著地震震级上升,其发震时间间隔缩短,且显著地震发震时引潮力矢量相互之间的交角较小,引潮力水平矢量相互之间的交角也较小,引潮力水平矢量方向接近于地震断层面走向. 相似文献
15.
We propose the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in active seismic areas. This method allows one to increase the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard moving average spectral method for more than an order of magnitude. In addition, this work presents the results of comparative analysis of temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in space-time in the vicinity of the 9-magnitude earthquake in Japan that occurred on March 11, 2011. 相似文献
16.
This work focuses on variations of the Earth tidal factor and phase lag derived from groundwater observations before and after major earthquakes. It is based on an analysis of the data from four observational wells at boundaries between distinct active blocks of China mainland. These wells are also situated on several active fault zones and have exhibited considerable responses to the Wenchuan M s8.0 earthquake of 2008 in China. We collected hourly records of water levels of these wells from 2007 to 2009 and processed these data for analysis. The tidal factors, phase lags, and phase-difference changes of tidal residuals of each well were calculated. We found that when the Wenchuan quake happened, the tidal factors of the 4 wells were changing rapidly, while their phase lags and phase differences of tidal residuals declined swiftly, which may reflect the stress and strain changes of the well-aquifer system during the seismic generation. 相似文献
17.
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has been measuring temporal and spatial variations of mass redistribution within the Earth system since 2002. As large earthquakes cause significant mass changes on and under the Earth’s surface, GRACE provides a new means from space to observe mass redistribution due to earthquake deformations. GRACE serves as a good complement to other earthquake measurements because of its extensive spatial coverage and being free from terrestrial restriction. During its over 10 years mission, GRACE has successfully detected seismic gravitational changes of several giant earthquakes, which include the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake, 2010 Maule (Chile) earthquake, and 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) earthquake. In this review, we describe by examples how to process GRACE time-variable gravity data to retrieve seismic signals, and summarize the results of recent studies that apply GRACE observations to detect co- and post-seismic signals and constrain fault slip models and viscous lithospheric structures. We also discuss major problems and give an outlook in this field of GRACE application. 相似文献
18.
文中计算了由日、月引潮力在地球内产生的潮汐应力场,研究了潮汐应力对地震的触发作用.采用的地球模型是分为十五层的球对称模型.对于近30年来我国或我国邻近发生的七十次较大的地震,计算了震源处在发震时刻的球坐标系中的潮汐应力.通过坐标变换,得到了发震断层面中的正应力及沿错动矢量方向的剪应力.根据岩石的库仑剪破裂准则来判断潮汐应力对所研究的震例是否具有触发作用.结果表明,在七十个震例中,潮汐应力对其中四十三个有触发作用.对于华北地区的十八个震例,潮汐应力对其中十四个有触发作用.还可看出,对于浅源走滑型地震有较明显的触发作用,而对浅源斜滑及倾滑型地震则没有明显的触发作用.对国外七十二个震例的计算结果得到了类似的结论.最后,对华北地区中任一可能的发震地点,提出一种根据潮汐应力来预测发震的危险时间范围的方法. 相似文献
19.
2004年苏门答腊大地震后,不同作者根据地震波和/或GPS观测,提出了不同的断层错动模型.在利用同震位移观测资料反演断层滑动模型时,由于使用半无限空间均匀介质模型或半无限空间分层介质模型,一般只能利用近场位移GPS观测约束,无法利用远场资料,这些模型有时差别颇大,如何区别这些模型的优劣是一个仍尚未解决的问题.本文采用等效体力有限元方法,在考虑地球球形和分层的条件下,对四个不同作者提供的2004年苏门答腊地震的断层滑动模型计算全球同震位移.由于采用了球形模型,所以不仅可以把四个模型的近场位移计算结果与GPS数据进行对比,而且可以把远场位移计算结果与GPS数据进行对比.我们发现,垂直位移对断层滑动模型的依赖性小于水平位移.四个模型计算的近场位移与GPS位移符合程度均较好,但是四个模型计算的远场位移与GPS位移符合情况有很大不同,其中Chlieh等（2007）模型在近场与远场符合程度均很好,是四个模型中最好的.另外还探讨了断层反演数据资料、断层几何模型以及地球模型对计算结果的影响.对于特大地震,全球同震位移观测与计算值吻合程度的好坏是衡量断层滑动模型的合理性的一个重要依据. 相似文献
20.
S. M. Molodenskii M. S. Molodenskii T. A. Begitova 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2016,52(5):648-659
Constructing detailed models for postseismic and coseismic deformations of the Earth’s surface has become particularly important because of the recently established possibility to continuously monitor the tectonic stresses in the source zones based on the data on the time variations in the tidal tilt amplitudes. Below, a new method is suggested for solving the inverse problem about the coseismic and postseismic deformations in the real non-ideally elastic, radially and horizontally heterogeneous, self-gravitating Earth with a hydrostatic distribution of the initial stresses from the satellite data on the ground surface displacements. The solution of this problem is based on decomposing the parameters determining the geometry of the fault surface and the distribution of the dislocation vector on this surface and elastic modules in the source in the orthogonal bases. The suggested approach includes four steps: 1. Calculating (by the perturbation method) the variations in Green’s function for the radial and tangential ground surface displacements with small 3D variations in the mechanical parameters and geometry of the source area (i.e., calculating the functional derivatives of the three components of Green’s function on the surface from the distributions of the elastic moduli and creep function within the volume of the source area and Burgers’ vector on the surface of the dislocations); 2. Successive orthogonalization of the functional derivatives; 3. Passing from the decompositions of the residuals between the observed and modeled surface displacements in the system of nonorthogonalized functional derivatives to their decomposition in the system of orthogonalized derivatives; finding the corrections to the distributions of the sought parameters from the coefficients of their decompositions in the orthogonalized basis; and 4. Analyzing the ambiguity of the inverse problem solution by constructing the orthogonal complement to the obtained basis. The described approach has the following advantages over the method of steepest descent which was used in our previous works: 1. Application of the perturbation method significantly reduces the volume of the computations in the real problems of coseismic and postseismic deformations (by three to four orders of magnitude when the data from a few dozens of observation points are used); 2. In contrast to the method of steepest descent, the suggested method always provides stable results. This means that adding the new satellite data does not alter the previously calculated coefficients in the low-order harmonics of the distributions of the sought parameters in the orthogonalized basis; this only changes the coefficients of the increasingly higher harmonics which determine the smallscale details in the sought distributions. 3. In contrast to the method of steepest descent, the suggested method is not only capable of constructing stable partial solutions of the inverse problem but also estimating the ambiguity of these solutions. The ambiguity is represented in terms of the superposition of the known functions contained in the orthogonal complement and, hence, with the growth of the amount of the analyzed data it is determined by the linear combination of the increasingly higher harmonics. In the second part of the paper, we present the results of the model numerical computations of Green’s function for the elastic displacements of the ground surface, which correspond to the case of the arbitrary geometry of the dislocation surface and arbitrary orientation of the dislocation vector for the real model of the radially heterogeneous gravitating Earth with the hydrostatic distribution of the initial stresses. The numerical calculations of the creep function in the upper mantle for the coseismic deformations and the ambiguity of the models of postseismic deformations in the vicinity of the source of the Great Tohoku earthquake (Japan) of March 11, 2011 are illustrated by the examples. 相似文献