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Gao Wenxue Gao QinhuaState Seismological Bureau Beijing China Institute of Geology SSB Beijing China 《中国地震研究》1995,(2)
This paper is a review on earthquake prediction and forecast research,progress in earthquake prediction work and pre-estimation of earthquake hazard degree in China in recent years.It indicates that China is the first country,the government of which has promoted and organized the state administration department on reduction of seismic hazards and ensured the socialization of earthquake prediction and forecast in the world.A program of earthquake prevention and protection and hazard reduction based on the results of research on earthquake occurrence regularities and prediction of earthquake preparation trend has been completed,and hence the socialization of results of earthquake prediction and forecast research can be expected to be in practice.The practical seismological works in last 20 years indicate that the earthquakes are not considered to be unpredictable,but it is a challenge remaining to be accepted.We are willing to cooperate with all friends who are engaged in earthquake prediction and forecas 相似文献
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Deng Qidong 《中国地震研究》2011,25(3):260-272
The great Haiyuan earthquake occurred at 20:06:09 on December 16,1920 in the south of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region.The magnitude of this earthquake is 8.5,listed as one of the three greatest earthquakes to ever occur in Chinese continent.This devastating earthquake killed about 230,000 people according to previous reports.Recent studies show that total casualties may have reached 270,000.The study of this earthquake using modern scientific and technological methods is the first in the history of earthquake research in China.Significant breakthroughs took place in the middle of last century.The earthquake surface rupture,with 200km in length and prominent left-lateral strike-slip displacement,was discovered.The first monograph on the Haiyuan earthquake was published.In the 1980s,innovative large-scale geological mapping technology for active faults was developed during studies on the Haiyuan earthquake surface ruptures,with the publication of the first large-scale map of the Haiyuan active fault.Quantitative studies were carried out on the fine structure and geometry of the fault zone,Holocene slip rate,co-seismic displacement,paleoearthquake and recurrence intervals and future earthquake risk assessment.The innovative studies also included rupture propagation along the strike-slip fault,evolution of pull-apart basins,determination of total displacement of the strike-slip fault,transition equilibrium between strike-slip displacement along its major strand and crustal shortening at the end of the strike-slip fault,and the mechanism of deformation on Liupan Mountain.On the occasion of the 90th anniversary of the Haiyuan earthquake,careful retrospect of scientific progress achieved during the recent 20 years would be helpful in providing further direction in the study of active faults and earthquake hazard reduction.While taking this occasion to remember those lost by the Haiyuan earthquake,we aim to make greater contributions to earthquake prediction and seismic hazard reduction. 相似文献
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Preface 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
《地震学报(英文版)》2003,(5)
During the last four years there have been significant advances in China, a country with intense seismic activity and earthquake disasters, in the study of seismology and physics of the Earths interior. These results are of significant help to the social endeavor for the reduction of earthquake hazard and risk, and potentially have an important impact on the development of seismology and solid geophysics even in a global perspective. Besides the continuous advancements in the on-going research… 相似文献
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AN-FU NIU 《地震学报(英文版)》1999,12(1):117-124
We discussed the linear and nonlinear character of deformation anomaly before the January 10, 1998 Zhangbei earthquake based on the quantitative analysis by using the tilt observation data. And generalized the three phases character of tilt deformation. ①Before the earthquake in the scale of one year, EW tilt keeps relative stationary on the block of the northern part of Yanshan Mountain; the tilt vector recurs around a point near the epicenter; and the abrupt change appears before the imminent earthquake. ② At a geodesic point, tilts discrete level in two directions have a synchronous property with a decline tendency (that is an entropy reduction) in two years before the earthquake. ③ The anomaly intensity AF value at all geodesic points on the same crustal block appear high value anomaly at least two times within 3 years before the earthquake. Using the simulation experimental results of rock rupture, we interpreted the phenomena of tilt deformation relative stationary or other kinds of stationary (process of entropy reduction), of recurrence of tilt deformation vector, of two times AF high values, and even the earthquake in groups, etc. 相似文献
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Based on the models of non-uniform earthquake distribution in the potential source,the seismic zonation of Western Panzhihua and Central and Southern Shanxi Province is studied.The results show that the usual uniform distribution model may underestimate the seismic risk and result in a reduction of the areas of high intensity.The influence of each non-uniform probabilistic distribution method on the result of seismic zoning is discussed. 相似文献
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《中国地震研究》1996,(1)
Progress and application of earthquake studies are important and effective fundamentals for the improvement of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. Through industrious effort during the past 30 years, significant advances were made in understanding the rules of earthquake occurrence, and the mastering and applying of the technology of earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. A number of devices that come close to or reach advanced world levels have been established and some systems in seismological experiments and earthquake prevention work have been improved, the ability to test and identify earthquake precursors have been raised, and the understanding of the complexity of these precursors has been deepened. The practical indexes and approaches for earthquake prediction have been worked out, and remarkable achievements in predictions and prevention of major earthquakes have been 相似文献
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Regional international cooperation in seismic data exchange and joint seismological analysis in the Asian-Pacific regions plays an important role in the reduction of earthquake disasters in these regions as well as the development of global seismology.Based on the up-to-date development of new technology and digital broadband seismology,we discussed the Asian seismological Commission(ASC) Proposal “Asian-Pacific Seismological Data Center“,We applied the concept of virtual seismological network(Ottemoeller and Havskov,1999) to the proposed ASC data exchange program.Based on the development of digital seismology,we in troduced a concept of “modern earthquake catalogues“which include not only location parameters and magnitudes as in the conventional earthquake catalogues but also new parameters of earthquakes such as CMT,radiated energy,STF,and earthquake rupture process,We recommended a webbased regional international data exchange program between the ASC members with the purpose of forming a virtual Asian-Pacific seismological network,and the interpretation and analysis of broadband digital seismic waveforms conducted at distributed“data centers“. 相似文献
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After the Ms6.6 earthquake occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties of Gansu Province on July 22, 2013, we preliminarily estimated the earthquake sequence to be a main shock-aftershock type based on the history of moderate-strong earthquake sequences in this area. As time went on, there were more aftershock events. These could be used for further analysis, and then for further decision on the earthquake sequence type. Finally, we determined the Ms6.6 earthquake sequence that occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties, Gansu Province as having been a main shock-aftershock type, with the largest Ms5.6 aftershock having occurred on the same day as the main Ms6.6 shock, from a comprehensive analysis of the historical characteristics of moderatety strong earthquakes of the earthquake zone, and the space-time evolution characteristics and parameters of the earthquake sequence. These provided a correct basis for anti- earthquake relief work and played an important role in mitigating the earthquake disaster and stabilizing the disturbed soci- ety after the earthquake in the earthquake zone and its neighboring areas. Reviewing the forecasting process and the re- sults, we found that we had successfully predicted the Ms6.6 earthquake that occurred in the border region between Min and Zhang counties on July 22, 2013 several years before it occurred. The magnitude and location of the earthquake had been predicted accurately, and the accuracy of the prediction was much higher than any other example in Chinese earth- quake prediction history. Forecasting on a monthly scale, we had indicated at the monthly meeting on earthquake prediction at the end of February, 2013 that there would be a risk of a moderately strong earthquake in Gansu Province from the change in moderately strong earthquake activity on the Chinese mainland. Even for short and impending earthquake prediction from several days to several dozens of days, we had proposed the likelihood of a moderate-strong earthquake happening in Gansu Province and the adjacent areas from the results of previous studies and the cases of earthquakes with MI ≥ 4.0 from the time before the Ms6.6 earthquake occurred. In a meeting about earthquake prediction held several days before the occurrence of the Ms6.6 event, we made the prediction that there would be an earthquake of M≥ 5.0 happening somewhere in Gansu Province and the surrounding area within dozens of days. The fact we had successfully predicted the Ms6.6 earth-quake on a several-year scale, as well as over a short time period to some extent, reinforces our belief that earthquakes can be forecast. Even with our present level of understanding, we can still capture some information on the gestation and occurrence of earthquakes before the arrival of a disaster. However, in order to achieve the goal of earthquake prediction in China, earthquake scientists still need to make arduous efforts. As long as earthquake scientists use the correct approach, and government supplies the necessary manpower and material resources to predict earthquakes, we believe that there will be a hope to achieve the aim of earthquake prediction with a relief effect. It is promising that we have achieved at least one or two earthquake forecasts. 相似文献
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In this paper, the research progress of the Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) is introduced from the major areas of concern, the concept of probability gain, hybrid model development,and the application to earthquake disaster reduction.Due to the development of OEF based on the global "Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)" plan, it provides a significant technical foundation for earthquake forecast modeling and a practical foundation for solving the actual problems in earthquake preparedness and disaster mitigation.Therefore, related research and technical ideas provide inspirational and referential significance for earthquake forecasting/prediction. 相似文献
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Chen Zhangli 《中国地震研究》2001,15(4):329-345
In the article the author looks back the hard development course and great progress in earth quake science and technology in China during the last near a half of century and expounds the following 3 aspects: (1) The strong desire of the whole society to mitigate seismic disasters and reduce the effect of earthquakes on social-economic live is a great driving force to push forward the development of earthquake science and technology in China; (2) To better ensure people‘ s life and property, sustainable economic development, and social stability is an essential purpose to drive the development of earthquake science and technology in China; and (3) To insist on the dialectical connection of setup of technical system for seismic monitoring with the scientific research of earthquakes and to better handle the relation between crucial task, current scientif ic level, and the feasibility are the important principles to advance the earthquake science and technology in China. Some success and many setbacks in earthquake disaster mitigation consistently enrich our knowledge regarding the complexity of the conditions for earthquake occurrence and the process of earthquake preparation, promote the reconstruction and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring, and deepen the scientific research of earthquakes. During the last 5 years, the improvement and modernization of technical system for earthquake monitoring have clearly provided the technical support to study and practice of earthquake prediction and pre caution, give prominence to key problems and broaden the field of scientific research of earth quakes. These have enabled us to get some new recognition of the conditions for earthquake oc currence and process of earthquake preparation, characteristics of seismic disaster, and mecha nism for earthquake generation in China‘s continent. The progress we have made not only en courages us to enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation, but also provides a basis for accelerating further development of earthquake science and technology in China in the new century, especially in the 10th five-year plan. Based on the history reviewed, the author sets forth a general requirement for develop ment of earthquake science and technology in China and brings out 10 aspects to be stressed and strengthened at present and in the future. These are: upgrade and setup of the network of digitized seismic observation; upgrade and setup of the network for observation of seismic pre cursors; setup of the network for observation of strong motion; setup of the laboratories for ex periment on seismic regime; establishment of technical system for seismic information, emer gency command and urgent rescue; research on short-term and imminent earthquake predic tion; research on intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction; research on attenuation of seismic ground motion, mechanism for seismic disaster, and control on seismic disaster; ba sic research fields related to seismology and geoscience. We expect that these efforts will signifi cantly elevate the level of earthquake science and technology in China to the advanced interna tional level, improve theories, techniques, and methods for earthquake precaution and predic tion, and enhance the effectiveness of earthquake disaster mitigation. 相似文献
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我国是世界上地震灾害最为严重的国家之一。50余年的防震减灾工作实践表明,健全防震减灾法律体系对于提升我国地震灾害防御能力具有十分重要的作用。采用文献查阅、对比分析等方法,在全面梳理我国防震减灾法律体系现状的基础上,总结分析了存在的4个方面问题,并借鉴日本和美国的先进经验,提出了出台《自然灾害防治法》、修订《突发事件应对法》,适时修订防震减灾有关法律法规,进一步明确防震减灾职权主体的法定职责任务,完善地方防震减灾法律体系等对策建议。 相似文献
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为了推进防震减灾事业的发展,本文介绍一本反映内陆地震活动的学术刊物《内陆地震》。总结该刊的诞生背景、主要内容以及研究成果等以了解天山地震学术研究的进展。通过学科领域统计的国内外论文收录以及通过逐年(近十年)统计的论文、简报、信息收录情况都从不同角度反映了《内陆地震》的成长。 相似文献
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浅谈城市发展与防震减灾 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
通过对加强防震减灾规划,加强地震安全性评价工作,加强地震应急救援能力以及增强公众防震减灾意识等4个方面的分析,揭示了城市发展与防震减灾的关系,强调了建设地震安全社区的重要性。 相似文献
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近年来，青岛市防震减灾事业取得了很大的进展，其中防震减灾宣传工作起了重要的作用。文章以青岛市的防震减灾宣传实践为例，总结了近几年来青岛市防震减灾宣传工作的特点和对策。 相似文献
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地震灾害造成的损失随社会发展而加重。经济迅速发展的我国新世纪防震减灾应采取新措施；需要提高地震设防标准，鼓励部分建筑先坚固起来，使我国建设的抗震能力在几十年内逐步达到国际先进水平；应在全国范围内抑制虚报，科学地确定地震预报的震级下限,通过清理地震预报方法提高报准率，从总体上提高地震预报效益；应重视震时应急行动的研究；应加强企业的防震减灾工作，并通过立法加以落实。 相似文献
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随着城镇化水平的快速提高，处于地震灾害高风险区域的城镇数量也不断增加。在城镇防震减灾工作管理体系中，市县地震部门的防震减灾工作是关键。然而，这些基层部门在推进防震减灾工作中面临着公共服务科技含量不高、工作手段缺乏、基础数据缺乏等难题。本文针对城镇地震防灾与应急处置的关键环节和薄弱部位，研究针对性强、操作简便的城镇地震防灾与应急处置一体化服务系统，为市县地震部门平时的震害防御、防震减灾科普宣传、应急准备以及震时应急响应和震后应急处置提供重要依据、工具和手段，全面提高市县防震减灾能力。从而提高为城镇人民的生命财产安全和经济建设保驾护航的能力，为城镇化建设营造安全的抗震环境。 相似文献