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The contribution discusses the problems with modelling design floods for water structures. The statistical extrapolations of observed flood series of, for example, 80 years “only” to the annual exceedance probability AEP = 0.01 is difficult due to the large variability in extreme values. For large dams, however, the AEP = 0.001 or 0.0001 is required. Most of the uncertainties in hydrological modelling are epistemic (uncertainties in model structure, model parameters, inputs, calibration data, and in measurements) and moreover some measurements can be disinformative. With powerful computers, it is now possible to produce very long series (100 to100,000 years in hourly time step) using precipitation and temperatures computed with a weather model. Within the framework of the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) many (thousands) of such continuous simulations are produced and compared to the observed historical data. According to Keith Beven's Manifesto for the equifinality thesis the differences between modelled and observed values should not be larger than some limits of acceptability based on what is known about errors in the input and output observations used for model evaluation (e.g., for flow the current metering data are used). The unacceptable realisations are rejected. We have been working with the frequency version of TOPMODEL in various versions according to the unique characteristics of each catchment. Design hydrographs for water structures are then extracted from the acceptable realisations. The continuous simulation with uncertainty estimation seems nowadays the most promising method of computing design hydrographs for important water structures, even if issues associated with epistemic uncertainty of model assumptions remain. 相似文献
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震源性质的时频分析与事件识别 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
应用时频分析技术研究了近年来发生在朝鲜半岛的核爆炸、化学爆炸与天然地震事件的识别问题,计算了上述三者的瞬时频率、瞬时振幅谱与群延迟等多项参数,提出地震与爆炸的识别指标.初步研究结果表明,对较大事件,上述三者来自震源的激发频率信息有明显差异性,核爆炸源激发的频率明显高于地震,化学爆炸最低.特别是,这些信息指标对于识别小当... 相似文献
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The estuarine ecosystems are considered as key objects in the Arctic monitoring. Crustacean Saduria entomon, bivalve Portlandia aestuariorum and Cyrtodaria curriana, whitefish Coregonus muksun, C. autumnalis and C. sardinella sardinella and sculpin Triglopsis polaris (= Myoxocephalus quadricornis) are proposed for monitoring of Arctic estuaries. Review of AMAP list of species was carried out. Some species, as included in the World and National ‘Red Books’ and thus being under legislation (polar bear, atlantic and Laptev sea subspecies of walrus, falcon Falco rusticolus) must be left out of the list of species-monitors. The same is applied as in the case of species which often feed on human waste (glaucous gull, fulmar). Instead of using the rare and valuable carnivorous species, appropriately their prey is used as monitors. 相似文献
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A framework for a seismic risk model for Greater Cairo 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A.M. Moharram A.Y. Elghazouli J.J. Bommer 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(10-11):795
Following the adverse effects caused by the moderate Ms 5.4 event of October 1992, the need to model the risk from earthquakes occurring in or near Cairo was shown to be an essential tool to offset this threat in the future. To provide the necessary elements for a risk model, this paper describes a methodology for developing a ground-shaking model as well as an inventory database for the city. In the first part, a scheme is followed to integrate data on geological structures, seismic sources, seismicity and surface soil conditions to build-up an event-based hazard model. In the second part, a brief review of the history of seismic provisions in Egyptian codes is presented, and a detailed assessment of local maps and information is supplemented by results from street surveys to obtain building stock data and geographical resolutions. On the basis of these studies, the city is divided into a number of census-tracts, or geo-codes, of classified building and soil characteristics, representing a fundamental step towards the development of a full loss model. 相似文献
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Julio C. Miranda 《地震工程与结构动力学》2013,42(7):1103-1110
This paper studies tuned mass dampers (TMDs) resulting in high modal damping for mechanical systems incorporating such devices for the purpose of seismic response reduction. Focusing on the determination of damping and tuning, the proposed methodology identifies a point of multiplicity of complex eigenvalues and eigenvectors, resulting in different parameters for TMDs according to their location with respect to such multiplicity condition. It is shown that significant equal modal damping and average modal damping can be induced by properly tuning highly damped TMDs, obtaining parameters intrinsic to the mechanical systems, and excitation independent. Further, it is shown that the methodology yields, as particular cases, two proposals by others using TMDs for the same purpose of seismic response abatement. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The role of bioassay in the pollution control system for water bodies is considered. Studies of the mechanisms of toxic impact of various chemical compounds on aquatic organisms were used to develop a bioindication method to give an integral estimate of water toxicity and determine some classes of chemical pollutants. The results of application of such methods to assessing water quality in Lake Ladoga are given. 相似文献
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Researchers have long recognized the importance and potential benefits of utilizing the tangent stiffness matrix of a test specimen in hybrid simulations employing implicit and mixed‐integration schemes. However, the computation of the tangent stiffness matrix during testing has proved to be challenging, particularly for test specimens with more than one degree of freedom (dof). This paper presents a new methodology that is more straightforward and simpler than existing techniques for computing the tangent stiffness matrix of a multi‐dof test specimen. The proposed method is combined with the operator‐splitting method (OSM), and the capabilities, advantages and limitations of the new formulation are demonstrated through several examples. The accuracy, stability, and error propagation characteristics of the modified OSM are also studied theoretically as well as numerically. The research results show that the proposed algorithm provides results that are better than those produced via the regular OSM alone, especially for damped structures undergoing highly inelastic behavior during testing. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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建立了一种Timoshenko裂纹梁的分析模型并且获得了闭合形式的挠度解析解。首先,在一致梁的理论框架下,通过引入δ函数模拟裂纹导致的局部柔度,建立用广义函数表示的Timoshenko裂纹梁的微分控制方程,进而得到挠度的闭合形式的解答;其次,根据线弹性断裂力学理论,利用转角及挠度突变与局部柔度系数的关系,建立Timoshenko裂纹梁的模型参数与裂纹深度的显式表示;最后,通过对裂纹深度与挠度、转角和曲率间关系的分析,总结了结构响应的损伤敏感性及其特征,并且通过与引入裂纹奇异单元的有限元结果进行比较,验证了本文所建分析模型及求解方法的正确性。研究结果表明,本文所建立的Timoshenko裂纹梁的分析模型,具有较高的计算精度和效率,在结构模型修正和损伤识别中具有良好的应用前景。 相似文献
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《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2020,(2)
正Submission of Papers Earthquake Engineering Engineering Vibration operates an online submission and peer review system that allows authors to submit articles online and track their progress via a web interface. 相似文献
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《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2013,(6):1091
SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in both basic and applied 相似文献
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《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2014,(4)
正SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences,an academic journal cosponsored by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the National Natural Science Foundation of China,and published by Science China Press and Springer,is committed to publishing high-quality,original results in both basic and applied research.SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences is published monthly in both print and electronic forms.It is indexed by Current Contents Fluidex,Science Citation Index,Meteorological and Geoastrophysical Abstracts,Water Resources Abstracts,Geo Ab- 相似文献