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1.
本文搜集、整理1998—2013年境内外天山及周边地区(包括中国新疆、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦等)500余个GPS观测点数据,采用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对其进行解算和平差计算,并利用了弹性块体模型计算区域块体边界断层闭锁深度、块体运动参数和主要活动断层的滑动速率.研究结果表明,东、西昆仑地震带闭锁深度最大(19km),其次为南天山地区,闭锁深度达到17km,闭锁深度最小的为哈萨克斯坦(13km);各块体相对欧亚板块作顺(逆)时针旋转,旋转速率最大(-0.7208±0.0034°/Ma)为塔里木块体,其围绕欧拉极(38.295±0.019°N,95.078±0.077°E)顺时针方向转动,旋转速率最小为天山东段(0.108±0.1210°/Ma),而天山东、西两段无论是在旋转速率上还是在旋转方向上都有显著的区别.西昆仑断裂带的滑动速率(10.2±2.8mm·a-1)最大,南天山西段滑动速率为9.5±1.8mm·a-1,其东段为3.9±1.1mm·a-1;而北天山东段滑动速率(4.7±1.1mm·a-1)高于北天山西段(3.7±0.9mm·a-1);塔里木盆地南缘的阿尔金断裂带平均滑动速率为7.6±1.4mm·a-1,其结果与阿勒泰断裂带滑动速率(7.6±1.6mm·a-1)基本相当;天山断裂带运动方式主要以挤压为主,而阿尔金、昆仑、阿尔泰以及哈萨克斯坦断裂带均是以走滑运动方式为主,除阿勒泰断裂带走滑方式为右旋以外,其余几个断裂带均为左旋运动.最后,利用主要断裂带的滑动速率计算出各地震带的地震矩变化率以及1900年以来地震矩累计变化量,其结果与利用地震目录计算所得到的地震矩进行比较,判定出各地震带上地震矩均衡分布状态,研究结果显示阿尔金、西昆仑、东昆仑和北天山东段断裂带存在较大的地震矩亏损,均具有发生7级以上地震的可能性,南天山东段和哈萨克斯坦断裂带地震矩亏损相对较小,具有孕育6~7级地震的潜能,而天山西段、阿勒泰地震矩呈现出盈余状态,不具在1~3年内有发生强震的可能. 相似文献
2.
天山地震带近期地壳形变分析及地震危险性评估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1999—2018年天山地震带GPS连续站及流动站观测资料,采用线性球面块体模型分别计算了1999—2007期,2009—2013期,2013—2017期的滑动速率,结合天山地震带基线及区域应变结果分析天山地震带近期地壳形变情况,对天山地震带的地震危险性进行评估。结果显示:北天山断裂带西段的挤压滑动速率有微弱的调整,基线结果显示北天山断裂带中西段远场挤压应变加载增强,同时还表现出时空非线性变形过程,需关注其强震危险。南天山断裂带西段的挤压速率处于稳定的高值状态,2013—2017期的挤压速率达到了(-12.5±2.0) mm/a,跨越南天山断裂带西段的基线和应变都是以挤压状态为主,结合地震活动状态的分析,认为该段发生地震的危险性较高。 相似文献
3.
利用“中国大陆构造环境监测网络”GNSS数据研究1998—2018年青藏高原东北缘排除同震影响等干扰后的速度场、主应变率场、最大剪切应变率场、面应变场等的变化,活动断裂滑动速率变化、跨活动断裂基线变化等。将研究区域内的二级块体再分区,获得各次级块体内部的应变率变化;获取研究区域地壳运动场的趋势性、动态特征。研究结果显示,阿尔金断裂带中东段、祁连块体和柴达木块体交界、巴颜喀拉块体与羌塘块体交界、祁连块体南边界中段、海原—六盘山断裂带和西秦岭北缘断裂带西段的逆冲运动,祁连块体北边界西段、庄浪河断裂的左旋走滑运动,祁连块体北边界东段、西秦岭北缘断裂带东段的左旋逆走滑运动,都属于造成一定程度地壳变形的持续性局部应变增强活动。阿尔金断裂带东段、东昆仑断裂带中西段、祁连块体北边界、庄浪河断裂北段、海原断裂南段、六盘山断裂北段、西秦岭北缘断裂带东段可能存在闭锁,未来十年可能发生MS6.0以上地震。 相似文献
4.
巴颜喀拉块体东部及邻区块体边界断裂变形特征及其强震危险性分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
在对巴颜喀拉块体东部及其邻区活动块体划分的基础上,基于刚性块体运动模型,利用1999—2007年GPS数据反演得到巴颜喀拉块体东部及邻区活动块体边界断裂带的长期滑动速率,并且利用一维弹性位错模型反演了各活动块体边界断裂的闭锁深度。根据反演得到的滑动速率和闭锁深度,结合GIS平台上获取的各边界断裂的几何长度得到各边界断裂的主要地震矩累积,并通过对比各断裂带上历史强震目录估算的地震矩释放分析各边界断裂带上的地震矩亏损量,进而分析各活动块体边界断裂的强震背景,以期为区域强震的中长期地震危险性分析和防震减灾策略的制定提供资料。 相似文献
5.
利用1999—2015年GPS水平速度场, 基于块体-位错模型, 反演了青藏高原东北缘4条主要断裂(海原断裂, 六盘山断裂, 陇县—宝鸡断裂, 西秦岭北缘断裂)的闭锁程度和滑动亏损速率的空间分布, 并分析了各断裂的地震危险性。 结果显示, 六盘山断裂南段、 陇县-宝鸡断裂北段、 西秦岭北缘断裂东段闭锁程度最强, 闭锁深度达到24 km左右; 西秦岭北缘断裂东段滑动亏损速率最大, 平均值达到3 mm/a; 六盘山断裂南段、 陇县—宝鸡断裂北段滑动亏损速率平均值达到1.9 mm/a, 稍弱于西秦岭北缘断裂东段; 海原断裂闭锁程度和滑动亏损速率相对较小, 闭锁程度和滑动亏损都仅分布在浅部。 我们认为现阶段海原断裂的地震危险性相对较小, 六盘山断裂南段、 陇县—宝鸡北段、 西秦岭北缘断裂东段地震危险性高于这些断裂的其他段落。 这些结果对于青藏高原东北缘地震危险性判定和地震灾害评估具有参考意义。 相似文献
6.
采用1991—2015年GPS速度场数据,分析了阿尔金断裂现今滑动速率特征;利用Tdefnode负位错反演程序计算了阿尔金断裂的闭锁程度分布及滑动亏损速率分布;结合小震分布特征,对阿尔金断裂地震危险性进行了研究。结果表明:阿尔金断裂西段、中段和东段的走滑速率分别为7.1 mm/a,7.8 mm/a,5.0 mm/a,在与北西向断裂交汇区域速率减小最快;断裂闭锁程度较高区域集中在断裂中东段,断裂中段亏损速率为6～8 mm/a,到东段亏损速率增加到10 mm/a;结合震源深度剖面认为断裂中东段是一个地震空段,地震危险性较高,未来应该加强关注。 相似文献
7.
鲜水河断裂带南东段滑动速率与断层几何关系的数值模拟 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
本文在分析鲜水河断裂带南东段平面断层几何的基础上,利用二维有限单元数值分析方法探讨了该段各分支断层水平滑动速率以及各断块间的整体抬升速率。数值计算中设该断裂带北西段已知的滑动位移势是由南东段各分支断层分担的,并利用已知南东段的断层滑动速率作检验。结果表明:断裂带北西段水平滑动位移势中的91%是由南东段各分支断层的水平滑动分担的,雅拉河断层、色拉哈断层分担的比例最大,玉龙西断层次之。北西段滑动位移势中的其余9%由南东段垂直差异运动所转换。 相似文献
8.
以所建立的川滇地区主要活动块体及其周边断裂带的模型和前期利用GPS及水准资料反演所得到的断裂带长期运动速率作为基础,将汶川地震引起的同震错动量加入到三维断裂几何模型中,计算出汶川地震大范围的同震形变场,然后基于该同震形变场和活动断裂三维几何模型反演了各条断裂对该同震形变场的反映,并通过与各断裂带长期运动速率对比,得到了汶川地震对川滇地区各主要活动断裂带发震趋势的影响．结果表明,在汶川地震引起的同震形变场作用下,在川滇交界东部地区,龙门山断裂带南西段地震危险性提前了305a,鲜水河断裂带南东段大致提前了19a,安宁河断裂带和则木河断裂带分别提前了21a和12a,大凉山断裂带北段和南段分别提前了9.1a和18a,马边断裂带的地震危险性则提前了51a;对川滇交界西部的丽江——小金河断裂带南西段、怒江断裂带、龙陵——澜沧断裂带、南汀河断裂带、中甸断裂带等断裂带地震的能量积累也有促进作用;相反在鲜水河断裂带北西段、小江断裂带等历史地震频发的断裂带上,地震危险性具有一定的减速作用． 相似文献
9.
川西理塘断裂带平均滑动速率、地震破裂分段与复发特征 总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8
理塘断裂带是川西北次级块体内部的一条活动断裂带.野外调查获得其晚第四纪断错、近代地震破裂、破裂分段的新证据, 估算出断裂的滑动速率、特征地震震级与复发间隔.结果表明, 理塘断裂带由毛垭坝盆地北缘、理塘和康嘎-德巫等三条次级断裂组成, 以左旋走滑为主, 不同部位伴有不等的逆倾滑分量. 由7个地点的断错地貌及相关沉积物年龄估算断裂带距今约14 ka以来的平均左旋滑动速率为4.0±1.0 mm/a, 垂直(逆)滑动速率0.1~1.8 mm/a; 三条次级断裂均为独立的地震破裂段, 相应特征地震最大矩震级估值为7.0~7.3, 平均复发间隔为500~1000年, 北西段最晚地震破裂发生在距今119±2 a之前, 中段发生在公元1890年前后, 南东段则发生在公元1948年, 显示出与段落之间应力触发作用有关的地震破裂事件沿断裂带单向迁移的特点. 相似文献
10.
《地震地质》2017,(3)
利用青藏高原东北缘及周缘地区1999—2007年和2009—2014年2个时段的GPS水平运动速度场做约束,反演获取了海原-六盘山断裂带的闭锁程度和滑动速率亏损的时空分布演化。结果表明,海原断裂带以左旋走滑亏损为主,六盘山断裂北段以逆冲倾滑速率亏损为主,南段则以正向倾滑为主。其中,毛毛山断裂和老虎断裂西段在2个时段的闭锁深度都达到25km,最大左旋滑动亏损为6mm/a。老虎山东段和海原断裂(狭义)闭锁程度低,主要处于蠕滑状态。六盘山断裂2个时段的闭锁深度可达35km,最大逆冲滑动速率亏损为2mm/a。汶川地震后,六盘山断裂上逆冲滑动速率亏损高值区由中段迁移至北段且范围减小,南段则变成正倾滑速率亏损。毛毛山、老虎山西段和六盘山断裂的地震危险性要明显高于海原-六盘山断裂带其他断层段。 相似文献
11.
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF SLIP RATE DEFICIT ACROSS HAIYUAN-LIUPAN SHAN FAULT ZONE CONSTRAINED BY GPS DATA 
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下载免费PDF全文 As the northeast boundary of the Tibetan plateau, the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone has separated the intensely tectonic deformed Tibetan plateau from the stable blocks of Ordos and Alxa since Cenozoic era. It is an active fault with high seismic risk in the west of mainland China. Using geology and geodetic techniques, previous studies have obtained the long-term slip rate across the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone. However, the detailed locking result and slip rate deficit across this fault zone are scarce. After the 2008 Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake, the tectonic stress field of Longmen Shan Fault and its vicinity was changed, which suggests that the crustal movement and potential seismic risk of Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone should be investigated necessarily.
Utilizing GPS horizontal velocities observed before and after Wenchuan earthquake(1999~2007 and 2009~2014), the spatial and temporal distributions of locking and slip rate deficit across the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone are inferred. In our model, we assume that the crustal deformation is caused by block rotation, horizontal strain rate within block and locking on block-bounding faults. The inversion results suggest that the Haiyuan fault zone has a left-lateral strike-slip rate deficit, the northern section of Liupan Shan has a thrust dip-slip rate deficit, while the southern section has a normal dip-slip rate deficit. The locking depths of Maomao Shan and west section of Laohu Shan are 25km during two periods, and the maximum left-lateral slip rate deficit is 6mm/a. The locking depths of east section of Laohu Shan and Haiyuan segment are shallow, and creep slip dominates them presently, which indicates that these sections are in the postseismic relaxation process of the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake. The Liupan Shan Fault has a locking depth of 35km with a maximum dip-slip rate deficit of 2mm/a. After the Wenchuan earthquake, the high slip rate deficit across Liupan Shan Fault migrated from its middle to northern section, and the range decreased, while its southern section had a normal-slip rate deficit.
Our results show that the Maomao Shan Fault and west section of Laohu Shan Fault could accumulate strain rapidly and these sections are within the Tianzhu seismic gap. Although the Liupan Shan Fault accumulates strain slowly, a long time has been passed since last large earthquake, and it has accumulated high strain energy possibly. Therefore, the potential seismic risks of these segments are significantly high compared to other segments along the Haiyuan-Liupan Shan fault zone. 相似文献
12.
STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE ON THE RECURRENCE BEHAVIOR OF MAJOR EARTHQUAKE ON ACTIVE FAULT-TAKING THE MIDDLE-NORTH SECTION OF XIANSHUIHE FAULT AS AN EXAMPLE 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 It is of great significance to determine the factors and causes that affect the recurrence of major earthquakes. This paper introduces the influence of strong earthquake on the recurrence of major earthquakes according to elastic rebound theory, and then proposes to calculate the impact time Δt respectively from the effect of strong earthquakes on the same and surrounding faults on the major earthquake recurrence by using seismic moment release rate method and Coulomb stress change. In this paper, we studied the change amount of major earthquake recurrence by taking four earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6.5 occurring at different fracture sections of the Xianshuhe fault zone as an example, they occurred on Daofu, Changcu, Zhuwo Fault, respectively. We used seismic moment rate method to calculate the impact time Δt of strong earthquake on the recurrence of major earthquakes on the Daofu-Qianning Fault. We further discussed the effect of the Coulomb stress change due to the interaction between faults on the recurrence of subsequent major earthquakes. The co-seismic and post-seismic Coulomb stress changes caused by strong earthquake on the surrounding faults on the Ganzi-Luhuo Fault are calculated. With the fault interaction considered, the importance of the interaction between faults in the middle-north section of the Xianshuihe fault zone to change the recurrence of large earthquakes is retested and evaluated. The results indicate that the two strong earthquakes occurring along Xianshuihe Fault in 1904(M=7.0) and 1981(M=6.9) resulted in a delay of 80 years and 45 years of major earthquake recurrence on the Daofu-Qianning Fault respectively, and the M7.3 earthquake in 1923 and the M6.8 earthquake in 1967 resulted in an advance of 35 years of major earthquake recurrence on the Ganzi-Luhuo Fault. 相似文献
13.
Tian Qinjian 《中国地震研究》2007,21(1):74-84
The interaction zone between southern Tianshan and northern Tarim is located at the northeast side of Pamir. It is a region with high seismicity. We constructed a seismotectonic model for the west part of this zone from geological profiles, deep crust seismic detection and earthquake focal mechanisms data. Based on the synthesized geological features, deep crust structure, and earthquake focal mechanisms, we think that the main regional tectonic feature is that the Tianshan tecto-lithostratigraphic unit overthrusts on the Tarim block. The Tianshan tectonic system includes the Maidan fault and thrust sheets in front of the fault; The Tarim tectonic system includes the underground northern Tarim margin fault, conjugate faults in basement and overthrust fault in shallow. The northern Tarim margin fault is a high angle fault deep in the Tarim crust, adjusting different trending deformation between Tianshan and Tarim. It is a major active fault that can generate large earthquakes. The other faults, such as the Tianshan overthrust system and the Tarim basement faults in this area may generate moderately strong earthquakes with different styles. 相似文献
14.
MOMENT DEFICITS ON THE MAJOR FAULTS AND EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN THE EASTERN HIMALAYAN SYNTAXIS 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis(EHS)is a critical region for studying the tectonic evolution of Tibetan plateau, which was affected by the intense seismic activities. We use the theory of moment balance, GPS velocities and historical earthquake records to analyze the moment deficits in the EHS, assess the future seismicity and further to predict the recurrence interval of the 1950 Chayu MS8.6 earthquake.
We first collected multiple sets of GPS velocity fields and combined them to reduce the systematic bias. Then a micro-blocks model, constrained by GPS velocities, was built by TDEFNODE software to simultaneously invert the fault elastic strain parameters and rigid motion parameters based on the grid research and simulated annealing methods. The long-term slip rates on the faults were further estimated by the differential motions between the neighboring blocks. The results show that the nearly NS dextral strike-slip faults, Naga Fault and Sagaing Fault, slip with the average rates of ~10.6 and ~16.6mm/a, which are consistent with the lateral extrusion in the Tibetan plateau. However, the Main Frontal Thrust shows a distinguished sinistral strike-slip feature(6~10mm/a), possibly caused by the NNE pushing from the Indian plate to the Eurasian plate. On the other hand, because the EHS is located in frontal area of the collision between Indian and Eurasian plate, most faults show thrusting feature. The most obvious one is the Mishimi Fault, slipping with the rate of 23.3mm/a, implying that the convergence rate of the Indo-European plates is largely absorbed by this fault. The moment accumulation rate in the EHS is higher than the average rate in the Tibetan plateau and the total moment accumulation is(1.15±0.03)×1022 N·m in the last 200a. About 59.7% and 21.6% of the moment accumulation rate concentrate on the Main Frontal Thrust and Mishimi Fault.
Second, we selected the earthquake records occurring on the upper crust since 1800AD to analyze the moment release in the EHS based on the data from the International Seismological Centre, United States Geological Survey, and catalogue of historical strong earthquakes in China and some other previous studies. In addition, the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Project and linear regression method were adopted to estimate the relationship between body wave magnitude(mb), surface wave magnitude(MS), local magnitude(ML)and the moment(M0). Then we further estimated the total fault moment release in the EHS, (5.50±2.54)×1021N·m, which is significantly lower than the total moment accumulation. About 79.2% of the moment release occurs on the Mishimi Fault, this is because the 1950 MS8.6 Chayu earthquake is assumed to have ruptured on this fault.
Finally, the present-day moment deficits on the faults in the EHS were calculated by the differences between the moment accumulation and release, which represent the possibility to produce earthquakes on the upper crust faults in the future. The largest moment deficit was found on the Main Frontal Thrust near Bhutan, which is able to rupture with MW8.1+. Similarly, earthquakes with MW7.5+ and MW7.3+ have the potentials to occur on the Naga Fault and the Jiali Fault near Tongmai. However, the future earthquake scales may be less than MW7.1 on the remaining faults. Moderate minor earthquakes are the main activity in the area near the Yarlung Zangbo Suture zone and the southern Sagaing Fault. Although the Chayu MS8.6 earthquake occurred near the Mishimi Fault and the eastern MFT, the earthquake risk on those two faults cannot be ignored. Meanwhile, no matter which fault produced the Chayu earthquake, its recurrence will likely be 660a to 1 030a. 相似文献
15.
南天山及塔里木北缘构造带位于帕米尔地区东北侧,地震活动强烈。文中通过地质构造剖面、深部探测资料和地震震源机制解资料,综合研究了该区的地震构造模型。结果认为,该区的构造活动主要表现为天山地块逆冲于塔里木地块之上。天山构造系统包括迈丹断裂及其前缘推覆构造;塔里木构造系统包括深部的塔里木北缘断裂、基底共轭断层和浅部的推覆构造。塔里木北缘断裂是发育于塔里木地壳内部的高角度断裂,其形成原因在于塔里木和天山构造变形方向的差异。塔里木北缘断裂为研究区大地震的主要发震构造,天山推覆构造和塔里木基底断裂系统均具有不同性质的中强地震发震能力 相似文献
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川滇地区是我国地震危险性较高的地区之一.本文基于对特大强震的风险性考虑,使用全球地震模型OpenQuake软件,建立了川滇地区地震危险性预测新模型.首先根据构造特征划分多个震源分区,并整理出这些震源分区内断层活动特征与滑动速率;基于震源分区和断层模型,使用GPS应变率转换成的锥形古登堡-里克特关系作为整个区域的地震积累率,并允许超过历史最大震级的特大地震的出现,结合活动断层滑动速率所积累的地震发生率,给出震源分区内断层地震源和背景地震源的地震发生率的比率分配关系;在活动断层分段上,保留了大型断裂或其主要部分,没有根据小的阶区来对断层进行详细分段,以便分配特大地震发生率;并使用地震率平滑方法分配背景地震发生率.最后在OpenQuake中加入地震动预测方程,计算出了川滇地区的PGA分布图,为区域地震危险性提供科学依据. 相似文献
18.
横亘新疆境内的天山及其周边的西昆仑、阿尔金和阿尔泰是中国大陆著名的强构造运动区和地震活动带。在对新疆构造区应力环境、动力过程、断层运动变形特征和地震序列分析讨论的基础上,对新疆及其周缘主要构造区地震破裂方式和序列类型进行研究,得出如下结论:(1)西昆仑构造区受来自青藏块体和塔里木块体NS和NW向水平压应力和垂向力的作用,构造运动呈现出走滑与逆冲特征,震源破裂以走滑型为主,数量较少的逆断型地震主要分布在西昆仑帕米尔一侧的深震挤压区,正断型地震主要出现在西昆仑与阿尔金交汇的拉张盆地及附近。该区主余型地震占63%,6级以上地震序列也存在多震类型。(2)阿尔金断裂带位于西昆仑北缘断裂和北祁连断裂过渡带,受青藏块体向北和向西的推挤,断裂本身的左旋位移量通过两端逆冲挤压而转化,使得青藏高原北边界不断向外扩展。在此力源下,阿尔金断裂带震源破裂以走滑为主,也有少量的逆冲型地震。地震序列中主余型和孤立型地震占比相同(占44%)。(3)在印度板块和亚欧大陆碰撞效应影响下,天山地区产生近NNE向水平压应力,构造运动显现出带旋性特征的逆冲和走滑,震源破裂方式与之相吻合。而天山构造大跨度的空间展布、扩展形式的多样性和地震破裂的两重性,又影响到地震序列类型的多样性,使得主余型、孤立型和多震型地震在不同构造部位呈现优势分布。(4)阿尔泰的构造运动可能受到了来自印度板块与亚欧板块碰撞的远程效应和西伯利亚块体南向运动的双向影响,形成NNE和SW向水平挤压力,主要大型发震断裂做右旋剪扭错动,而一些深断裂则以逆冲运动为主。震源破裂呈现出走滑(占64%)和部分的逆冲(占27%),6级以上地震序列主要为主余型,5级左右地震则多为孤立型。 相似文献
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活断层与古地震定量数据在美国近三代地震区划图中的应用基本上体现了各阶段活断层研究的最新成果,其中断裂震源模型起到了桥梁的作用,并不断得到完善。在1996年地震区划图中引入了特征地震模型与截断的G—R模型,用以表述断层的震级一频度分布关系。在2002年地震区划图中更明确地处理了参数的不确定性,并引入逻辑树概念,同时在特征地震模型中试用了多段破裂模型。在2008年地震区划图中引用了更为广泛的逻辑树来描述地震构造几何形态、地震震级和复发周期的不确定性,其中特征地震模型包括：单段破裂和多段破裂的特征地震模型,以及给定震级的浮动地震模型（或不固定分段模型）。这些经验值得在我国第五代地震区划图的编制工作中借鉴。 相似文献