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1.
The algorithm CN makes use of normalized functions. Therefore the original algorithm, developed for the California-Nevada region, can be directly applied, without adjustment of the parameters, to the determination of the Time of Increased Probability (TIP) of strong earthquakes for Central Italy. The prediction is applied to the events with magnitudeMM 0=5.6, which in Central Italy have a return period of about six years. The routinely available digital earthquake bulletins of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica (ING), Rome, permits continuous monitoring. Here we extend to November 1994 the first study made by Keilis-Boroket al. (1990b). On the basis of the combined analysis of seismicity and seismotectonic, we formulate a new regionalization, which reduces the total alarm time and the failures to predict, and narrows the spatial uncertainty of the prediction with respect to the results ofKeilis-Borok et al. (1990b).The premonitory pattern is stable when the key parameters of the CN algorithm and the duration of the learning period are changed, and when different earthquake catalogues are used.The anlysis of the period 1904–1940, for whichM 0=6, allows us to identify self-similar properties between the two periods, in spite of the considerably higher seismicity level of the earlier time interval compared with the recent one.  相似文献   

2.
The possibility of intermediate-term earthquake prediction at Mt. Vesuvius by means of the CN algorithm is explored. CN was originally designed to identify the Times of Increased Probability (TIPs) for the occurrence of strong tectonic earthquakes, with magnitude M ≥ M0, within a region a priori delimited. Here the CN algorithm is applied, for the first time, to the analysis of volcanic seismicity. The earthquakes recorded at Mt. Vesuvius during the period from February 1972 to June 2004 are considered, and the magnitude threshold M0 selecting the events to be predicted is varied within the range: 3.0–3.3. Satisfactory prediction results are obtained, by retrospective analysis, when a time scaling is introduced. In particular, when the length of the time windows is reduced by a factor 2.5–3, with respect to the standard version of CN algorithm, more than 90% of the events with M ≥ M0 occur within the TIP intervals, with TIPs occupying about 30% of the total time considered. The control experiment ``Seismic History' demonstrates the stability of the obtained results and indicates that the CN algorithm can be applied to monitor the preparation of impending earthquakes with M ≥ 3.0 at Mt. Vesuvius.  相似文献   

3.
In this paper we evaluate the present state of the seismic regime in Southern California using the concentration parameter of seismogenic faults (K sf ,Sobolev andZavyalov, 1981). The purpose of this work is to identify potential sites for large earthquakes during the next five or ten years. The data for this study derived from the California Institute of Technology's catalog of southern California earthquakes, and spanned the period between 1932 to June 1982. We examined events as small asM L 1.8 but used a magnitude cutoff atM L =3.3 for a detailed analysis. The size of the target earthquakes (M M ) was chosen as 5.3 and 5.8.The algorithm for calculatingK sf used here was improved over the algorithm described bySobolev andZavyalov (1981) in that it considered the seismic history of each elementary seismoactive volume. The dimensions of the elementary seismoactive volumes were 50 km×50 km and 20 km deep. We found that the mean value ofK sf within 6 months prior to the target events was 6.1±2.0 for target events withM L 5.3 and 5.41.8 for targets withM L 5.8. Seventy-three percent of the targets withM L 5.8 occurred in areas whereK sf was less than 6.1. The variance of the time between the appearance of areas with lowK sf values and the following main shocks was quite large (from a few months to ten years) so this parameter cannot be used here for accurate predictions of occurrence time.Regions where the value ofK sf was below 6.1 at the end of our data set (June, 1982) are proposed as the sites of target earthquakes during the next five to ten years. The most dangerous area is the area east of San Bernardino whereK sf values are presently between 2.9 and 3.7 and where there has been no earthquake withM L 5.3 since 1948.  相似文献   

4.
A predictive equation to estimate the next interoccurrence time () for the next earthquake (M6) in the Ometepec segment is presented, based on Bayes' theorem and the Gaussian process.Bayes' theorem is used to relate the Gaussian process to both a log-normal distribution of recurrence times () and a log-normal distribution of magnitudes (M) (Nishenko andBuland, 1987;Lomnitz, 1964). We constructed two new random variablesX=InM andY=In with normal marginal densities, and based on the Gaussian process model we assume that their joint density is normal. Using this information, we determine the Bayesian conditional probability. Finally, a predictive equation is derived, based on the criterion of maximization of the Bayesian conditional probability. The model forecasts the next interoccurrence time, conditional on the magnitude of the last event.Realistic estimates of future damaging earthquakes are based on relocated historical earthquakes. However, at the present time there is a controversy between Nishenko-Singh and Gonzalez-Ruiz-Mc-Nally concerning the rupturing process of the 1907 earthquake. We use our Bayesian analysis to examine and discuss this very important controversy. To clarify to the full significance of the analysis, we put forward the results using two catalogues: (1) The Ometepec catalogue without the 1907 earthquake (González-Ruíz-McNally), and (2) the Ometepec catalogue including the 1907 earthquake (Nishenko-Singh).The comparison of the prediction error reveals that in the Nishenko-Singh catalogue, the errors are considerably smaller than the average error for the González-Ruíz-McNally catalogue of relocated events.Finally, using the Nishenko-Singh catalogue which locates the 1907 event inside the Ometepec segment, we conclude that the next expected damaging earthquake (M6.0) will occur approximately within the next time interval =11.82 years from the last event (which occurred on July 2, 1984), or equivalently will probably occur in April, 1996.  相似文献   

5.
Result of the algorithm of earthquake prediction, published in 1982, is examined in this paper. The algorithm is based on the hypothesis of long-range interaction between strong and moderate earthquakes in a region. It has been applied to the prediction of earthquakes withM6.4 in Southern California for the time interval 1932–1979. The retrospective results were as follows: 9 out of 10 strong earthquakes were predicted with average spatial accuracy of 58 km and average delay time (the time interval between a strong earthquake and its best precursor) 9.4 years varying from 0.8 to 27.9 years. During the time interval following the period studied in that publication, namely in 1980–1988, four earthquakes occurred in the region which had a magnitude ofM6.4 at least in one of the catalogs: Caltech or NOAA. Three earthquakes—Coalinga of May, 1983, Chalfant Valley of July, 1985 and Superstition Hills of November, 1987—were successfully predicted by the published algorithm.The missed event is a couple of two Mammoth Lake earthquakes of May, 1980 which we consider as one event due to their time-space closeness. This event occurred near the northern boundary of the region, and it also would have been predicted if we had moved the northern boundary from 38°N to the 39°N; the precision of the prediction in this case would be 30 km.The average area declared by the algorithm as the area of increased probability of strong earthquake, e.g., the area within 111-km distance of all long-range aftershocks currently present on the map of the region during 1980–1988 is equal to 47% of the total area of the region if the latter is measured in accordance with the density distribution of earthquakes in California, approximated by the catalog of earthquakes withM5. In geometrical terms it is approximately equal to 17% of the total area.Thus the result of the real time test shows a 1.6 times increase of the occurrence ofC-events in the alarmed area relative to the normal rate of seismicity. Due to the small size of the sample, it is of course, beyond the statistically significant value. We adjust the parameters of the algorithm in accordance with the new material and publish them here for further real-time testing.  相似文献   

6.
Bayes' theorem has possible application to earthquake prediction because it can be used to represent the dependence of the inter-arrival time (T) of thenext event on magnitude (M) of thepreceding earthquake (Ferraes, 1975;Bufe et al., 1977;Shimazaki andNakata, 1980;Sykes andQuittmeyer, 1981). First, we derive the basic formulas, assuming that the earthquake process behaves as a Poisson process. Under this assumption the likelihood probabilities are determined by the Poisson distribution (Ferraes, 1985) after which we introduce the conjugate family of Gamma prior distributions. Finally, to maximize the posterior Bayesian probabilityP(/M) we use calculus and introduce the analytical condition .Subsequently we estimate the occurrence of the next future large earthquake to be felt in Mexico City. Given the probabilistic model, the prediction is obtained from the data set that include all events withM7.5 felt in Mexico City from 1900 to 1985. These earthquakes occur in the Middle-America trench, along Mexico, but are felt in Mexico City. To see the full significance of the analysis, we give the result using two models: (1) The Poisson-Gamma, and (2) The Poisson-Exponential (a special case of the Gamma).Using the Poisson-Gamma model, the next expected event will occur in the next time interval =2.564 years from the last event (occurred on September 19, 1985) or equivalently, the expected event will occur approximately in April, 1988.Using the Poisson-Exponential model, the next expected damaging earthquake will occur in the next time interval =2.381 years from the last event, or equivalently in January, 1988.It should be noted that very strong agreement exists between the two predicted occurrence times, using both models.  相似文献   

7.
Multifractal analysis of earthquakes   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
Multifractal properties of the epicenter and hypocenter distribution and also of the energy distribution of earthquakes are studied for California, Japan, and Greece. The calculatedD q-q curves (the generalized dimension) indicate that the earthquake process is multifractal or heterogeneous in the fractal dimension. Japanese earthquakes are the most heterogeneous and Californian earthquakes are the least. Since the earthquake process is multifractal, a single value of the so-called fractal dimension is not sufficient to characterize the earthquake process. Studies of multifractal models of earthquakes are recommended. Temporal changes of theD q-q curve are also obtained for Californian and Japanese earthquakes. TheD q-q curve shows two distinctly different types in each region; the gentle type and the steep type. The steeptype corresponds to a strongly heterogeneous multifractal, which appears during seismically active periods when large earthquakes occur.D q for smallq or negativeq is considerably more sensitive to the change in fractal structure of earthquakes thanD q forq2. We recommend use ofD q at smallq to detect the seismicity change in a local area.  相似文献   

8.
The Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake is determined in Central Italy. This is done with an algorithm that has been successfully applied in other regions of the world (algorithm CN, from the initials of California and Nevada, where the first diagnoses of TIPs were made). The use of normalized functions allows direct application of the orginal algorithm to the new region being studied, without anyad hoc adjustment of the parameters.Retrospective analysis carried on until 1986 shows that TIPs occupy 26 percent of the total time considered and precede four out of five strong earthquakes. Forward monitoring indicates the possible existence of a TIP started in May 1988.Several tests indicate that the results obtained are quite stable, even when using catalogues from different agencies. Apart from obvious practical interest, this research is essential for the worldwide investigation of self-similarity in the origin of strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

9.
—A succession of precursory changes of seismicity characteristic to earthquakes of magnitude 7.0–7.5 occurred in advance of the Kobe 1995, M = 7.2, earthquake. Using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) regional catalog of earthquakes, the M8 prediction algorithm (Keilies-Borko and Kossobokov, 1987) recognizes the time of increased probability, TIP, for an earthquake with magnitude 7.0–7.5 from July 1991 through June 1996. The prediction is limited to a circle of 280-km radius centered at 33.5°N, 133.75°E. The broad area of intermediate-term precursory rise of activity encompasses a 175 by 175-km square, where the sequence of earthquakes exhibited a specific intermittent behavior. The square is outlined as the second-approximation reduced area of alarm by the "Mendocino Scenario" algorithm, MSc (Kossobokov et al., 1990). Moreover, since the M8 alarm starts, there were no swarms recorded except the one on 9–26 Nov. 1994, located at 34.9°N, 135.4°E. Time, location, and magnitude of the 1995 Kobe earthquake fulfill the M8-MSc predictions. Its aftershock zone ruptured the 54-km segment of the fault zone marked by the swarm, directly in the corner of the reduced alarm area. The Kobe 1995 epicenter is less than 50 km from the swarm and it coincides with the epicenter of the M 3.5 foreshock which took place 11 hours in advance.  相似文献   

10.
Summary TheGumbel's theory of largest values has been applied to the estimation of probability of occurrence and of return periods of largest earthquakes in the European area. For this study shallow shocks from the period 1901–1955 and from 15 earthquake zones were used. For each zone the largest magnitudes corresponding to one-year intervals were arranged in order of increasingM, grouped in classes and then the probabilitiesF(x j) were calculated. The data plotted on the probability paper fit a straight line fairly well. The extrapolated lines yield the possibility of estimating large magnitudes which will be exceeded with a given probability, e.g. 1%. Such values were compared with largest magnitudes observed during the period 1901–1955. Their return periods indicate that in most regions the largest probable shock already occurred. Following the procedure ofEpstein-Lomnitz the coefficients and were calculated and compared with corresponding values ofa andb of the magnitude-frequency relation.  相似文献   

11.
Predictions of earthquakes worldwide by the M8-MSc algorithm, which defines locations of Times of Increased Probability (TIPs), have been tested for nearly two decades, and the authors claim a high rate of success. Thus, it might be appropriate to ask what the consequences in terms of human losses may be if the expected earthquakes should occur. The loss estimating tool QUAKELOSS also has been tested in real-time mode during the last five years with success. Therefore, it is reasonable to estimate the order of magnitude of human losses if great earthquakes should occur in TIPs. Here I compare the consequences if M 8.5 earthquakes should happen in the current TIPs of southern Sumatra and central Chile (Kossobokov and Soloviev, 2008, centers at 4.75S/102.625E and 31.25S/71.77 W, respectively). The selection of the attenuation function is calibrated by matching theoretically calculated intensities and fatalities to the observed values in historic earthquakes. In both areas, the standard attenuation function I use is applicable. The results show that in southern Sumatra fatalities are expected to number fewer than 1,000 (possibly as much as a factor of 5 fewer), whereas they are likely to be larger than 1,000 (possibly as much as a factor six) in central Chile. These figures, however, do not account for possible tsunami effects. The difference is due to two factors. The earthquake sources are farther offshore, and there are only small settlements along the coast in southern Sumatra, whereas along the Chilean coast, large harbor cities are located in the northern part of the TIP area. Regardless of TIP predictions, large earthquakes are to be expected along the Chilean coast. Therefore, it seems advisable to implement mitigating measures in La Serena and Coquimbo, where most of the victims are expected.  相似文献   

12.
Applying genetic algorithm to inversion of seismic moment tensor solution and using the data of P waveform from digital network and initial motion directions of P waves of Taiwan network stations, we studied the moment tensor solutions and focal parameters of the earthquake of M=7.3 on 16 September of 1994 in Taiwan Strait and other four quakes of M L≥5.8 in the near region (21°–26°N, 115°–120°E). Among the five earthquakes, the quake of M=7.3 on September 16, 1994 in Taiwan Strait is the strongest one in the southeastern coast area since Nan’ao earthquake of M=7.3 in 1918. The results show that moment tensor solution of M=7.3 earthquake is mainly double-couple component, and is normal fault whose fault plane is near NW. The strike of the fault plane resembles that of the distributive bands of earthquakes before the main event and fracture pattern shown by aftershocks. The tension stress axis of focal mechanism is about horizontal, near in NE strike, the compressive stress axis is approximately vertical, near in NWW strike. It seems that this quake is controlled by the force of Philippine plate’s pressing Eurasian plate in NW direction. But from the viewpoint of P axis of near vertical and T axis of near horizontal, it is a normal fault of strong tensibility. There are relatively big difference between focal mechanism solution of this quake and those of the four other strong quakes. The complexity of source mechanism solution of these quakes represents the complexity of the process of the strait earthquake sequences. Contribution No. 98A01001, Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau, China. The subject is supported and helped by Academician Yun-Tai CHEN, Profs. Qing-Yao HONG, Zhen-Xing YAO, Tian-Yu ZHENG, Yao-Lin SHI, Ji-An XU, Bo-Shou HUANG and colleague Mei-Jian AN, Xue-Reng DING, Rui-Feng LIU. De-Chong ZHANG and Ming Li provided the digital data warm-heartedly. Lin-Ying WANG offered us the catalogue of earthquakes in southeastern coastal area in China. Xi-Li WANG and Tong-Xia BAI provided us the issued annual reports data. The authors would like to express their gratitude to all of these people. This paper is sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and Scientific and Technological Commission of Shantou, Guangdong Province.  相似文献   

13.
The largest earthquake (M0=4.9·1027 dyn·cm) of the 20th century in the territory of Greece occurred south of Amorgos Island, causing extensive destruction in the southern Aegean area. It occurred on an ENE–trending normal fault that is seated parallel to the Islands southern coastline. Changes in the rates of moderate–size earthquakes (M 5.0) that occurred before and after the Amorgos earthquake, within circular regions centered on its epicenter with radii of 100, 150 and 200 km, are investigated. The rate for moderate–size events just before the main shock appears to be considerably increased when compared to those of either preceding or subsequent periods. Further inspection reveals that more evident seismicity fluctuations are attributed to distances exceeding 100 km. These changes may be indicative of a broad region that is approaching a high stress state prior to an eventual large earthquake. Close to the main event, that is, within the 100–km radius, a remarkable quiescence period lasting about two decades before its occurrence was observed. Changes in seismicity are discussed in combination with static stress changes calculated by the application of the stress evolutionary model that takes into account the coseismic slip associated with the larger events (M 6.5) since the beginning of the 20th century and the tectonic loading on the major faults in the study area. These larger events, as with the intermediate magnitude seismicity taking place at distances exceeding 100 km and which encircled the quiescent area observed during the last 22 years before the Amorgos earthquake, are well correlated with stress-enhanced areas in each stage of the evolutionary model.  相似文献   

14.
Interplate coupling plays an important role in the seismogenesis of great interplate earthquakes at subduction zones. The spatial and temporal variations of such coupling control the patterns of subduction zone seismicity. We calculate stresses in the outer rise based on a model of oceanic plate bending and coupling at the interplate contact, to quantitatively estimate the degree of interplate coupling for the Tonga, New Hebrides, Kurile, Kamchatka, and Marianas subduction zones. Depths and focal mechanisms of outer rise earthquakes are used to constrain the stress models. We perform waveform modeling of body waves from the GDSN network to obtain reliable focal depth estimates for 24 outer rise earthquakes. A propagator matrix technique is used to calculate outer rise stresses in a bending 2-D elastic plate floating on a weak mantle. The modeling of normal and tangential loads simulates the total vertical and shear forces acting on the subducting plate. We estimate the interplate coupling by searching for an optimal tangential load at the plate interface that causes the corresponding stress regime within the plate to best fit the earthquake mechanisms in depth and location.We find the estimated mean tangential load over 125–200 km width ranging between 166 and 671 bars for Tonga, the New Hebrides, the Kuriles, and Kamchatka. This magnitude of the coupling stress is generally compatible with the predicted shear stress at the plate contact from thermal-mechanical plate models byMolnar andEngland (1990), andVan den Buekel andWortel (1988). The estimated tectonic coupling,F tc , is on the order of 1012–1013 N/m for all the subduction zones.F tc for Tonga and New Hebrides is about twice as high as in the Kurile and Kamchatka arcs. The corresponding earthquake coupling forceF ec appears to be 1–10% of the tectonic coupling from our estimates. There seems to be no definitive correlation of the degree of seismic coupling with the estimated tectonic coupling. We find that outer rise earthquakes in the Marianas can be modeled using zero tangential load.  相似文献   

15.
Most large earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 in California during 1852–1987 appear to show a southeast-to-northwest tendency of epicenter migration. This finding is consistent with earlier findings ofSavage (1971) for a relatively few large earthquakes along the west coast of North America, and ofWood andAllen (1973) for smaller events along the San Andreas fault in central California. The average speed of migration is approximately 130 km/yr, which is within the range of speeds observed for other major seismic zones in the world. The epicenter migration in California may be the result of some small but broad-scaled episodic strain changes associated with creep waves induced by magma injections at the East Pacific Rise and propagating northwestwardly along a broad transform boundary between the Pacific and North American plates at subseismogenic depths as proposed bySavage (1971).  相似文献   

16.
Summary Using the fromulae given byGutenberg andRichter, the writer has computed the magnitude and energy of 1804 earthquakes which occurred in Turkey during the period 1850–1960. For drawing the Isenerget, the formula =log10 S has been used in accordance with the definitions given byToperczer andTrapp, whereS=e i/F·p represents the energy in erg/m2 h corresponding to the surface element of 0.5° Lat. x 0.5° Long. Also the relationship between the seismicity and the tectonics of Turkey has been studied by drawing the maps of the epicenters, the focus-depths and the frequences of the earthquakes with various intensities.  相似文献   

17.
—Large earthquakes in Italy are preceded by a specific seismic activation which could be diagnosed by a reproducible intermediate-term earthquake prediction method—a modification for lower seismic rate areas of the algorithm, known as M8 (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov, 1990). Use has been made of the PFG-ING catalog of earthquakes, compiled on a regular basis, to determine areas and times of increased probability for occurrences of M≥ 6 earthquakes. In retroactive simulation of forward prediction, for the period 1972–1995, both the 1976 Friuli, M = 6.1 and the 1980 Irpinia, M = 6.5 earthquakes are predicted. In the experiment where priority magnitude scale is used, the times of increased probability for a strong earthquake to occur (TIPs) occupy less than a quarter of the total magnitude-space-time domain, and are rather stable with respect to positioning of circles of investiga tion. Successful stability tests have been made considering a recently compiled catalog (CCI97) (Peresan et al., 1997). In combination with the CN algorithm results (Costa et al., 1996) the spatio-temporal uncertainty of the prediction could be reduced to 5%. The use of M8 for the forward prediction requires the computations to be repeated each half-year, using the updated catalog.  相似文献   

18.
Time variations in the parameters of seismic activity in two regions in Greece, which are known to have different geodynamical conditions, are analyzed using the FastBEE algorithm suggested in (Papadopoulos and Baskoutas, 2009). The study is based on the data on weak earthquakes that occurred in two local regions. One region pertains to the zone dominated by intensive compression stress field, while another is located in the region of a relatively lower intensity extension stress field. It is shown that in the zone of compression the seismic parameters exhibit anomalous temporal behavior before strong earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.7, whereas in the zones of extension, similar anomalies precede earthquakes with lower magnitudes of up to Ms ≥ 4.9. The most informative parameters for the purposes of predicting strong seismic events are the released seismic energy in the form logE 2/3 and the slope of the frequency-magnitude dependence, b-value. The seismic activity in the region, expressed in terms of the logarithmic number of earthquakes, per unit time in some cases does not exhibit any particular pattern of behavior before strong earthquakes. In the time series of the studied parameters, four stages in the seismic process are clearly distinguished before strong earthquakes. Typically, a strong earthquake has a low probability to occur within the first two stages. Instead, this probability arises at stage III and attains its maximum at the end of this stage coinciding with the occurrence of the strong earthquake. We suggest these features of the time series to be used for the assessment of seismic hazard and for the real-time prediction of strong earthquakes. The time variations in the b-value are found to be correlated with the time variations inlogE 2/3. This correlation is closely approximated by the power-law function. The parameters of this function depend on the geodynamical features of the region and characterize the intensity and the type of the regional tectonic stresses. The results of our study show that the FastBEE algorithm can be successfully applied for monitoring seismic hazard and predicting strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

19.
The distribution of the focal mechanisms of the shallow and intermediate depth (h>40 km) earthquakes of the Aegean and the surrounding area is discussed. The data consist of all events of the period 1963–1986 for the shallow, and 1961–1985 for the intermediate depth earthquakes, withM s 5.5. For this purpose, all published fault plane solutions for each event have been collected, reproduced, carefully checked and if possible improved accordingly. The distribution of the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes in the Aegean declares the existence of thrust faulting following the coastline of southern Yugoslavia, Albania and western Greece extending up to the island of Cephalonia. This zone of compression is due to the collision between two continental lithospheres (Apulian-Eurasian). The subduction of the African lithosphere under the Aegean results in the occurrence of thrust faulting along the convex side of the Hellenic arc. These two zones of compression are connected via strike-slip faulting observed at the area of Cephalonia island. TheP axis along the convex side of the arc keeps approximately the same strike throughout the arc (210° NNE-SSW) and plunges with a mean angle of 24° to southwest. The broad mainland of Greece as well as western Turkey are dominated by normal faulting with theT axis striking almost NS (with a trend of 174° for Greece and 180° for western Turkey). The intermediate depth seismicity is distributed into two segments of the Benioff zone. In the shallower part of the Benioff zone, which is found directly beneath the inner slope of the sedimentary arc of the Hellenic arc, earthquakes with depths in the range 40–100 km are distributed. The dip angle of the Benioff zone in this area is found equal to 23°. This part of the Benioff zone is coupled with the seismic zone of shallow earthquakes along the arc and it is here that the greatest earthquakes have been observed (M s 8.0). The deeper part (inner) of the Benioff zone, where the earthquakes with depths in the range 100–180 km are distributed, dips with a mean angle of 38° below the volcanic arc of southern Aegean.  相似文献   

20.
The mass redistribution in the earth as a result of an earthquake faulting changes the earth's inertia tensor, and hence its rotation. Using the complete formulae developed byChao andGross (1987) based on the normal mode theory, we calculated the earthquake-induced polar motion excitation for the largest 11,015 earthquakes that occurred during 1977.0–1993.6. The seismic excitations in this period are found to be two orders of magnitude below the detection threshold even with today's high precision earth rotation measurements. However, it was calculated that an earthquake of only one tenth the size of the great 1960 Chile event, if happened today, could be comfortably detected in polar motion observations. Furthermore, collectively these seismic excitations have a strong statistical tendency to nudge the pole towards 140°E, away from the actually observed polar drift direction. This non-random behavior, similarly found in other earthquake-induced changes in earth rotation and low-degree gravitational field byChao andGross (1987), manifests some geodynamic behavior yet to be explored.  相似文献   

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