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1.
气温对太湖蓝藻复苏和休眠进程的影响 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2
利用2005 2014年每日的卫星数据、气象站和浮标站观测资料研究复苏期和休眠期的平均气温、稳定通过界限温度初终日、周有效积温与太湖蓝藻休眠和复苏时间的关系,探讨气温是否是影响蓝藻休眠和复苏时间进程的关键因子.分析结果显示:太湖蓝藻复苏早晚与春季(3 5月)气温密切相关,春季气温越高,蓝藻复苏时间越早;太湖蓝藻休眠时间与秋、冬季(11次年1月)气温密切相关,秋、冬季气温越高,蓝藻休眠时间越晚.此外根据分析结果发现,太湖首次出现蓝藻水华的时间一般是气温稳定通过9℃初日之后的1个月左右,但上一周期的休眠与下一周期的复苏之间气温异常偏高会导致蓝藻水华首次出现时间早于稳定通过9℃初日;最后一次蓝藻水华出现时间与气温稳定通过4℃的终日相近;在复苏期,湖水中的叶绿素a浓度随周有效积温变化而变化,二者相关系数为0.9. 相似文献
2.
太湖蓝藻水华的预防、预测和预警的理论与实践 总被引：67，自引：21，他引：46
综述了蓝藻水华预防、预测预警的重要意义及其理论与技术体系.基于作者所提出的将蓝藻水华形成分为休眠、复苏、生长和上浮聚集形成水华的"四阶段理论",以及太湖蓝藻越冬、春季复苏和水华形成的时空规律,提出了太湖蓝藻水华的预防理念.综述了国内外蓝藻水华形成与预测研究进展,阐述了蓝藻水华形成关键过程的主导生态因子及其阈值:确定了水华蓝藻越冬的空间分布与生命特征,利用室内模拟实验和野外原位观测与捕捉,得到了蓝藻春季复苏的室内和野外温度阈值分别为14℃和9℃,发现了蓝藻复苏量与有效生理积温呈正相关的基本规律;初步揭示了水华蓝藻生长竞争优势形成的生物学与生态学机理以及光利用策略,利用细胞分裂频率法测定了夏季太湖水华蓝藻的原位生长速率为0.2-0.4;确定了在不同水文气象条件下,水华蓝藻在水体中垂直分布和在不同湖区之间输移的基本格局,发现藻类在水体中各层间百分含量的变异系数随着风浪的增大而减小,进一步证明了蓝藻水华形成是在适当水文气象要素驱动下,已经成为优势种群的水华蓝藻在湖体中空间位置的改变而引起的.建立了太湖蓝藻水华预测模型和工作流程,在2007年和2008年在太湖实施了未来3d的蓝藻水华预测预警,预测分析了2008年全年太湖蓝藻水华情势.对预测结果的回顾性评估与分析表明,目前已有的理论研究结果和预测工作流程可以对太湖蓝藻水华发生概率、发生地点和强度进行预测,预测准确率达到60%-80%.此外,还提出了未来蓝藻水华预测的研究方向. 相似文献
3.
西湖生态系统健康评价初探 总被引：27，自引：3，他引：24
建立了基于多源卫星遥感影像的太湖蓝藻水华信息提取的普适模式,获取了天气晴好条件下蓝藻水华的面积和空间分布近年来,太湖蓝藻水华暴发时间逐渐提前至3-4月,暴发的高频繁期发生在6—7月,其次是10—11月;2000年以来,蓝藻水华的持续时间有所增加,几乎全年（3—12月）都有发生北部（梅梁湾、竺山湾）是蓝藻水华的最初暴发地,是蓝藻水华暴发的重灾区＋每年都有发生;2001年以来,南部沿岸区（浙江附近水域,即夹浦新塘一带的沿岸水体）也几乎每年都有发生,且集聚面积逐年扩大,持续时间越来越长,逐渐成为太湖蓝藻的最早暴发地;2003年以来,蓝藻水华开始向湖心扩散,严重时几乎覆盖整个太湖的非水生植被区：值得注意的是．2005年以来,以前很少有蓝藻水华发生的贡湖湾,也开始有大面积蓝藻水华覆盖,2007年发生的频率显著增加． 相似文献
4.
全球气候变化显著影响湖泊理化环境和生态系统演化,对生态系统服务造成负面影响甚至引发生态系统灾变,其中风速下降可能促使富营养化湖泊蓝藻水华的暴发和水面漂浮集聚。以往由于较低的观测频次,往往很难精细量化风对蓝藻水华的影响。利用陆基高光谱近感观测技术,基于分钟小时尺度开展周年高频观测,通过对6—10月蓝藻生长期太湖表层水体叶绿素a浓度统计分析,量化蓝藻水华高频动态变化特征,确定蓝藻水华漂浮集聚的风速阈值。研究发现,随着风速的下降,水体表层叶绿素a浓度随之增加,蓝藻水华出现概率也随之增加。概率分析显示,当近地面风速小于2.5 m/s时,湖泊表层比较容易形成明显肉眼可见的蓝藻水华,藻华发生概率为55.1%。长时间持续的低风速容易诱发蓝藻水华形成和漂浮集聚,强风浪事件后低风速出现1～2天叶绿素a往往就能恢复以往较高水平,这为管理者有效防控蓝藻水华提供了新视角。长期气象观测显示,气候变化影响下太湖地区风速呈现显著下降趋势,增加了蓝藻竞争优势和发生概率,有助于其在表面漂浮集聚。在未来的气候变化情景下,如果风速继续呈现下降趋势,在营养盐条件不变情况下湖泊表层蓝藻水华发生概率可能还会上升,增加蓝藻水华防控... 相似文献
5.
基于遥感数据的太湖蓝藻水华信息识别方法 总被引：9，自引：4，他引：5
2007 年太湖大规模蓝藻暴发,再次引起了人们对太湖环境的关注.有效地提取蓝藻水华信息对分析蓝藻动态分布有重要意义.而卫星遥感技术是进行太湖水质监测与保护的措施之一.本文以2007年4月23日CBERS-02星CCD数据为主要的数据源,以NDVI值为测试变量,运用CART算法确定分割阈值,从而通过构建决策树的方法识别蓝藻水华信息,分析其蓝藻水华的提取结果,取得了较好的效果.文中还在GIS技术支持下,提取了2007年5月17日MODIS影像中的蓝藻水华信息.本次研究为以后开展长期的太湖蓝藻水华动态监测提供技术参考. 相似文献
6.
基于突变理论的太湖蓝藻水华危险性分区评价 总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5
蓝藻水华暴发是湖泊生态系统中营养物质长期累积的结果,是系统营养经长期演化后的极端状态.突变理论评价方法无需确定指标权重,减少了人为主观因素,并且计算方便.本文基于突变理论,采取蓝藻水华暴发的表征因子(叶绿素浓度)和导致蓝藻水华暴发的环境因子(总氮和总磷)作为潜在危险性评价指标,蓝藻水华的面积、范围以及暴发频次作为历史危险性评价指标建立多准则蓝藻水华暴发风险评价指标体系,并结合太湖九个分区进行蓝藻水华暴发危险性分区及全湖评价.研究结果表明:竺山湖和西部沿岸为极重危险性湖区;梅梁湾为重度危险性湖区;南部沿岸、贡湖和大太湖为中度危险性湖区;箭湖东茭咀、东太湖和胥湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性较小,为轻微危险性湖区.整体上看,太湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性程度由轻到重基本上沿东南-西北方向变化,与营养盐浓度由低到高分布趋势相一致.根据评价结果,可以明确太湖各区遭遇蓝藻水华暴发危险性的大小,为蓝藻水华风险管理和应急处理提供科学依据. 相似文献
7.
太湖富营养化条件下影响蓝藻水华的主导气象因子 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
利用2004-2018年卫星遥感解译的太湖蓝藻水华信息构建蓝藻综合指数，采用随机森林机器学习算法分析同期气象因子与蓝藻水华综合指数的关系，定量评估影响蓝藻水华的主要气象因子特征变量的重要性度量和贡献率.结果表明，在光、温、水、风等主要气象要素中，气温对蓝藻水华综合指数起着主导的作用，其次是风速和降水，日照时间的影响或可忽略.其中气温条件中重要性度量最大的是年平均气温，其次是冬、春季节的平均气温；风速因子中影响较大的是7月份的平均风速；水分条件中主导因子是9月累计降水量.优选的随机森林模型模拟值与实际蓝藻水华综合指数的变化趋势基本一致，拟合优度为0.91，通过0.01显著性检验，随机森林模型模拟效果较好.用随机森林模型模拟值对太湖蓝藻水华分等级评估，模型模拟精度达到了86.7%，其中5个重度等级年份模型模拟结果完全一致，中度等级的6个年份模型模拟值有5年与之相符，中度以上等级的模拟精度达90.9%，模型能够反映气象因子对蓝藻水华综合指数的综合影响，对中、重度蓝藻水华的模拟效果更好.随机森林模型有助于理解富营养化状态下影响蓝藻水华的主导气象因子，利用气象因子的可预测性可以促进蓝藻水华预测预警能力的提升. 相似文献
8.
2009年太湖水域“湖泛”监测与分析 总被引：15，自引：4，他引：11
"湖泛"是太湖水域近年来发生的重要环境灾害问题之一.根据2009年4-10月的太湖"湖泛"易发区巡测和跟踪监测资料,分析了2009年太湖水域"湖泛"发生情况.2009年太湖共发生11次小范围"湖泛",主要发生在太湖西岸、梅梁湾和贡湖湾局部水域.对比近年"湖泛"发生水域的水质指标,以及同期太湖蓝藻水华暴发、湖体水质及其变化情势,认为蓝藻水华强度、频次和面积与2007、2008年相比呈明显的下降趋势,从而可能降低了大面积"湖泛"暴发的机率;同时,2007年以来在太湖北部湖湾的生态清淤工程也降低了北部湖湾发生大面积"湖泛"的可能性.同期水质监测指标显示,2009年同期太湖水质综合评价为Ⅳ类、中富营养状态,而太湖湖西、竺山湖、梅梁湾水域仍为Ⅴ类或劣Ⅴ类,"湖泛"仍时有发生.蓝藻打捞、生态清淤、控源截污、"引江济太"调水是预防太湖"湖泛"的有效措施;同时,加强太湖"湖泛"巡查,建立太湖"湖泛"监测预警系统,及时发现太湖"湖泛",有序、妥善地处置黑臭水体,将对确保太湖饮用水水源地安全起到积极的作用. 相似文献
9.
利用陆基高光谱遥感捕捉太湖蓝藻水华日内快速变化过程 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
受蓝藻自身垂直迁移和频繁风浪扰动影响,太湖蓝藻水华漂浮混合和迁移堆积等变化迅速,在传统的湖面定位和断面监测中总感觉蓝藻水华有些"来无影、去无踪",限制了对其形成过程、驱动机制和防控治理的深入认识.卫星遥感可以实现蓝藻水华空间分布同步观测,但由于观测频次的限制很难捕捉蓝藻水华快速动态变化过程.本文利用与杭州海康威视数字技术股份有限公司联合自主研发的陆基（地基、岸基或者平台、船舶、桩基等能固定安装的均可）高光谱多参数水质遥感监测仪,架设于中国科学院太湖湖泊生态系统研究站（简称太湖站）水上观测场,通过对叶绿素a浓度及其他关键水质参数秒-分钟级的连续观测,有效捕捉了一天内蓝藻水华短期突然和快速变化过程.研究结果显示,在微风和小风条件下蓝藻容易在表层水体漂浮,盛行西北风驱动湖面开敞水域蓝藻水华快速漂浮集聚到太湖站岸边,短短半小时内表层水体叶绿素a浓度可以由10 μg/L快速攀升到100 μg/L以上,一天内会出现多个叶绿素a峰值,清晰展示了蓝藻快速日内动态变化过程.受蓝藻快速日内变化影响,透明度、总氮、总磷和高锰酸盐指数等水质参数也呈现出快速日内变化,叶绿素a浓度与透明度存在极显著负相关,与总氮、总磷和高锰酸盐指数存在极显著正相关,叶绿素a能解释总氮、总磷80%以上的变化,说明蓝藻短期内的漂浮和集聚深刻影响到湖泊水质. 相似文献
10.
藻类生长与营养盐浓度存在藻类几何级数增长的营养盐浓度变化的下限阈值和藻类生长不受氮磷浓度增加影响的上限阈值,但由于蓝藻水华的形成受多种因素的综合影响,不同湖泊、不同区域及不同时段的氮磷浓度对蓝藻水华的影响差别较大,使得蓝藻生长的氮磷控制阈值难以确定.针对控制蓝藻水华暴发的氮磷阈值的研究虽然有所开展,但多集中在实验室研究阶段或对经验值的判断,虽然也有基于野外实测数据的研究,但也限制于某一特定区域,而基于野外长序列实测数据并且覆盖整个湖泊的氮磷阈值研究则是空白.太湖作为具有较高营养背景的富营养化浅水湖泊,蓝藻水华的发生受氮磷影响较大.对太湖总磷(TP)、总氮(TN)和叶绿素a(Chl.a)浓度的时空变化分析发现,太湖西北湖区的TP、TN与Chl.a浓度明显较高,并且TP、TN与Chl.a均呈显著性正相关.为探究太湖蓝藻水华暴发的TP和TN控制阈值,以轻富营养化等级下的Chl.a分级标准(10,26］作为表征水华暴发的条件,采用郑丙辉等的频率分布法,确定了太湖蓝藻水华暴发的TP和TN控制阈值分别为0.05~0.06和1.71~1.72 mg/L;通过空间验证,太湖藻型区TP和TN浓度远高于同级营养水平下全湖区TP和TN控制阈值,表明藻型区高氮磷水平为蓝藻水华发生提供充足营养盐条件,即使氮磷全湖平均浓度控制在蓝藻水华暴发的氮磷阈值水平之下,但在气象水文等因素适宜条件下,藻型区水华发生风险仍然较高;并且在高氮磷背景下,即便在水华发生风险低的季节,水华发生风险仍然较大.近十几年来,虽然太湖经历了大规模的高强度治理,但由于环太湖流域的湖西区入湖负荷占比大,导致太湖藻型区氮磷浓度仍处于高位运行状态,为蓝藻水华的暴发提供了充足的营养盐基础,因此,湖西区的控源减排仍然是太湖富营养化及蓝藻水华防控的重点. 相似文献
11.
Temperature observations at 25 sites in the 2000 km2 Dee catchment in NE Scotland were used, in conjunction with geographic information system (GIS) analysis, to identify dominant landscape controls on mean monthly maximum stream temperatures. Maximum winter stream temperatures are mainly controlled by elevation, catchment area and hill shading, whereas the maximum temperatures in summer are driven by more complex interactions, which include the influence of riparian forest cover and distance to coast. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate the catchment‐wide distribution of mean weekly maximum stream temperatures for the hottest week of the 2‐year observation period. The results suggested the streams most sensitive to high temperatures are small upland streams at exposed locations without any forest cover and relatively far inland, while lowland streams with riparian forest cover at locations closer to the coast exhibit a moderated thermal regime. Under current conditions, all streams provide a suitable thermal habitat for both, Atlantic salmon and brown trout. Using two climate change scenarios assuming 2·5 and 4 °C air temperature increases, respectively, temperature‐sensitive zones of the stream network were identified, which could potentially have an adverse effect on the thermal habitat of Atlantic salmon and brown trout. Analysis showed that the extension of riparian forests into headwater streams has the potential to moderate changes in temperature under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to –0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period. 相似文献
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高精度数字重力仪广泛应用于矿产资源勘探领域，由石英弹性系统组成的重力传感器是高精度数字重力仪的核心部件，其对外界环境温度非常敏感，由环境温度变化引起的重力输出变化远远大于仪器本身精度指标，而且不同的数字重力仪具有不同的温度影响特性.若重力传感器的恒温环境得不到保障，或环境温度的微弱变化无法得到准确的测量和补偿，将严重影响重力仪器的测量精度和一致性.本文针对该问题，研究了高精度恒温测温系统的设计方法及关键技术，考虑到数字重力仪器精度高、体积小、功耗低和便携式的特点，对高精度恒温测温系统中的关键器件选型、热结构设计、电路设计、软件设计等进行深入研究，并给出具体的解决措施.并设计了静态试验、高低温试验和石英弹性系统温度系数测定试验三个部分验证高精度恒温测温系统的有效性.试验结果表明：高精度测温系统最小分辨率达到10 μ℃；静态常温时，高精度恒温系统温度变化约为70 μ℃；在-20℃~+45℃的环境温度冲击中高精度恒温系统温度变化小于1 m℃；恒温点微调装置可实现石英弹性系统温度系数的精确测定.该研究为高精度重力测量仪器研制中消除环境温度变化影响提供了一种有效解决方案. 相似文献
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利用青藏高原改则、甘孜、拉萨和那曲气象站的地面水银温度计观测的地面0 cm温度和地面向上、大气向下长波辐射观测资料，计算和比较分析了地面水银表温度与地表辐射温度的差异.分析表明，由于地面水银温度计接触式测温方法的局限性，使得气象台站观测场地的地面水银表温度存在较大的误差：在裸露地表，夏季白天的正偏差可达4℃以上，夜间的负偏差在-2℃左右；在稠密植被地表，白天正偏差最高可达16℃以上，夜间的负偏差可达-3℃.由于偏差的不均衡性和离散性，即使对地面水银表温度作简单平均或积分平均处理，其代表性仍然很差.在对地表温度准确性要求较高的定量化研究与应用中，应避免直接采用地面水银表温度资料，即使由于资料缺乏而以其代之，也应对其采取适当的订正补偿等处理措施.随着科学研究对地表温度准确性的更高要求，推广使用地表辐射测温的观测方法是必要的. 相似文献
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J. K. Angell 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1980,118(1):378-386
Examined are temperature and ozone variations in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere during the period 1958–77, as estimated from radiosondes rocketsondes, ozonesondes, and Umkehr measurements. The temperature variation in the low tropical stratosphere is a combination of the variation associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation, and a variation nearly out of phase with the pronounced 3-yearly temperature oscillation (Southern Oscillation) present in the tropical troposphere since 1963. Based on radiosonde and rocketsonde data, the quasibiennial temperature oscillation can be traced as high as the stratopause, the phase varying with both height and latitude. However, the rocketsonde-derived temperature decrease of several degrees Celsius in the 25–55 km layer of the Western Hemisphere between 1969 (sunspot maximum) and 1976 (sunspot minimum) is not apparent in high-level radiosonde data, so that caution is advised with respect to a possible solar-terrestrial relation.There has been a strong quasi-biennial oscillation in ozone in the 8–16 km layer of the north polar region, with ozone minimum near the time of quasi-biennial west wind maximum at a height of 20 km in the tropics. A quasi-biennial oscillation in ozone (of similar phase) is also apparent from both ozonesonde data and Umkehr measurements in 8–16 and 16–24 km layers of north temperate latitudes, but not higher up. Both measurement techniques also suggest a slight overall ozone decrease in the same layers between 1969 and 1976, but no overall ozone change in the 24–32 km layer. Umkehr measurements indicate a significant 6–8% increase in ozone amount in all stratospheric layers between 1964 and 1970, and in 1977 the ozone amount in the 32–46 km layer was still 4% above average despite the predicted depletion due to fluorocarbon emissions. The decrease in ozone in the 32–46 km, layer of mid latitudes following the volcanic eruptions of Agung and Fuego is believed to be mostly fictitious and due to the bias introduced into the Umkehr technique by stratospheric aerosols of volcanic origin. Above-average water vapor amounts in the low stratosphere at Washington, DC, appear closely related to warm tropospheric temperatures in the tropics, presumably reflecting variations in strength of the Hadley circulation. 相似文献
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A Mazaud M.A SicreU Ezat J.J PichonJ Duprat C LajC Kissel L BeaufortJ.L Turon 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,201(1):159-170
New records of past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were derived in the 30-50 kyr B.P. time interval from a core located at 45°S in the Southern Indian Ocean, MD94-103. To investigate the climatic phasing between the Southern Indian Ocean, the Greenland and the Antarctic ice, the magnetic signal of core MD94-103 was synchronized at better than millennial accuracy in the vicinity of the Laschamp geomagnetic to a reference record, NAPIS-75, already placed on the GISP2 age model. Coccolithophorid and diatom species abundances both point to a cooling of surface waters during H4. Specific diatoms also indicate lower salinity waters during the same time interval. These observations do not support the idea that the South hemisphere warmed 1.5-2 kyr before the North hemisphere (Nature 394 (1998) 739). Rather, alkenone-derived SSTs suggest that cold conditions have characterized the surface waters in the south latitudes during H4 and H5, and that temperature at evaporation sites contributed to the isotopic events A1 and A2 visible in the isotopic records of central Antarctica (Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 177 (2000) 219). SSTs obtained from foraminifera assemblages depict somewhat different temperature patterns, possibly indicative of water stratification. 相似文献
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Climate warming and its impact on natural regional boundaries in China in the 1980s 总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10
The global climate warming accelerated in the 1980s has become a focus in the world. Based on the month by month and year by year temperature data from 160 representative stations throughout the country during 1951-1999, this paper analyses annual and four seasons' temperature variations of China since the 1980s. It was found out that the non-equalibrium response with relative great regional and seasonal differences is represented in the country's climate warming. In regional changes a trend of "warm in the north and cold in the south" occurs whereas in seasonal changes, the characters of "warm in winter and cool in summer" present. Significant verification of the temperature variations conducted in terms of mathematical statistics reveals that a confidence level of over 95% has been basically reached in areas north of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, according to data of diurnal mean temperature steadily passing through accumulated temperature ≥10℃ from 335 stations since 1951 or since the founding of the stations in the early 1950s to 1999, comparative analysis of the data of the last 19 years with that of the first 30 years was conducted and the accumulated temperature ≥10℃ and the variation range of the persistent number of days ≥10℃ were obtained. It was concluded that a general northward shift of central subtropics, north subtropics, warm temperate zone, mesothermal zone and frigid temperate zone of eastern China was observed. The northward shift of north subtropics and warm temperate zone was obvious but changes of south subtropics and marginal tropics were insignificant. In western China, in addition to southwestern Yunnan, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and western Inner Mongolia where the temperature zones of each either shifted northward or trended to move upward, not much changes were found in other areas or they shifted southward slightly and declined. 相似文献
20.
The relationship between air (Ta) and water temperature (Tw) is very important because it shows how the temperature of a water body might respond to future changes in surface Ta. Mean monthly Tw records of three gauging stations (Bezdan, Bogojevo i Veliko Gradi?te) were analysed alongside mean monthly discharge (Q) for the same stations. Additionally, Ta series from two meteorological stations (Sombor and Veliko Gradi?te) were correlated with Tw variations over the period 1950–2012. Locally weighted scatter point smoothing (LOWESS) was used to investigate long‐term trends in the raw data, alongside the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test. Trend significance was established using Yue–Pilon's pre‐whitening approaches to determine trends in climate data. Also, the rescaled adjusted partial sums (RAPS) method was used to detect dates of possible changes in the time series. Statistically significant warming trends were observed for annual and seasonal minimum and maximum Tw at all investigated sites. The strongest warming was observed at Bogojevo gauging station for seasonal maximum Tw, with +0.05 °C per year on average. RAPS established that the trend began in the 1980s. This behaviour is linked to climate patterns in the North and East Atlantic which determine the amount of heat advected onto mainland Europe. Statistically significant correlations were found for all Tw on an annual basis. Overall, the strongest correlations (p < 0.01) between Tw residuals and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were recorded for the winter period. These findings suggest possible predictability of Tw over seasonal time‐scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献