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1.
The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been adopted to estimate the seismic hazard in some seismogenic zones in Greece and surrounding regions. Seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude were considered as basic parameters for computing the prior estimates of the seismicity. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes' theorem and historical estimates of seismicity associated with each zone.High probabilities for earthquakes withM6.0 have been obtained for the northwestern part of Greece as well as for the southwestern part of the Hellenic arc.  相似文献   

2.
Microearthquake activity (impulsive, transient seismic events, with durations up to several seconds at a distance of 500 m, that exhibit a coda with a shift toward lower frequencies with increasing time) was monitored for a three-month period by a single seismograph sited directly above an undergound longwall mine in the coal-mining region of Buchanan County, Virginia, U.S.A. The purpose of this investigation was to determine if precursory increases in microseismicity prior to cavings (subsidence) of overburden in the mine were present and, if so, could they be detected by surface seismographic observations. The first two recording weeks were prior to the beginning of coal removal operations at the monitored mine. A comparision of the before and after levels of microearthquake occurrence indicated a sevenfold increase to about seven seismic events/hour that was attendant with the development of the time over the level of the background, non-coal-mining period seismicity.A total of over 15,000 microearthquakes were recorded during the monitoring period, most of which occurred during the actual coal-mining operations. The workday rate exceeded 30 seismic events/hour in contrast with the non-workday rate of about seven such events/hour. Rock and coal fracturing ahead of the mine plow are believed to be the primary cause of the majority of these very small seismic events. Cavings and rockbursts (violent eruptions that propel rock debris into the mine) also contributed to the total seismic activity. It appears that cavings, some of which were large enough to be felt on ground surface, are the primary source of the non-plowing related seismicity as larger free surface areas are opened underground. Any seismic activity premonitory to cavings, however, was effectively masked by the high workday rate. Thus, the use of surface seismic monitoring, in an attempt to document any increases of localized seismicity precursory to cavings, failed in this instance.The exact location of the mine and the survey dates are not given in this paper at the request of the mine operator.  相似文献   

3.
Relationships between the locations of mining-induced seismic events, local fault structure, and mine geometry were examined in a deep hard-rock mine in northern Idaho. Stopes experiencing rock bursts and other large seismic events were found to fall into two structural regimes: the Silver Vein, and the N48°W Trend, a steeply dipping plane of seismic activity that is subparallel to major local steeply dipping faults which bound blocky structures. The N48°W Trend also intersects a shaft that was seriously damaged when fault gouge was expelled into the opening during a 3-month period of high seismic energy release. Models of stress interaction are used to support the hypothesis that mining-induced deformation was mobilized along a 1.5 km length of the N48°W Trend. Specifically, numerical models are used to simulate rupture of seismic events and estimate induced changes in the quasi-static stress field. A Coulomb failure criterion is used with these results to estimate the spatial variation in potential for slip on planes parallel to local faulting. Increases in the potential for slip on fault planes subparallel to the N48°W Trend are consistent with activation of deformation along its 1.5 km length. For events with constant seismic moment, stress drop is shown to be far more important than source dimension in elevating slip potential along the observed plane of seismic activity  相似文献   

4.
We review earthquake distributions associated with hydrocarbon fields in the context of pore pressure diffusion models, poroelastic stress transfer and isostasy theory. These three mechanisms trigger or induce seismic instabilities at both local scale (D5 km) and at regional scale (D20 km). The modeled changes in stress are small (1 MPa), whatever the tectonic setting. Each mechanism corresponds to different production processes. (1) Local hydraulic fracturing due to fluid injection induces seismic-slip on cracks (M L3) within the injected reservoir through decreasing the effective stress. (2) Pure fluid withdrawal causes pore pressure to decrease within the reservoir. It triggers adjustments of the geological structure to perturbations related to the reservoir response to depletion. Poroelastic mechanisms transfer this stress change from the reservoir to the surrounding levels whereM L5 seismic instabilities occur either above or below the reservoir. (3) Massive hydrocarbon recovery induces crustal readjustments due to the removal of load from the upper crust. It can induce larger earthquakes (M L6) at greater distance from the hydrocarbon fields than the two other mechanisms.Due to the mechanical properties of the shallow rock matrices involved, seismic slip triggered either by mechanism (1) or (2), is a second-order process of the main elastoplastic deformation. for a minimum of 80% of commercially productive basins, most of the local deformation is reported as aseismic, i.e., there is no evidence forM L3 earthquakes. Nevertheless, the induced stresses vary as a function of time in a manner that depends on the hydraulic diffusivity (i.e., permeability) of the reservoir and surrounding rocks. Because small earthquakes (M L3) indicate changes in stress and pore pressure, monitoring of seismicity is a means of assessingin situ reservoir behavior.The less constrained seismic response to hydrocarbon recovery is the possible connection between local fluid manipulations, triggered earthquakes and major regional earthquakes. Positive feedback mechanisms suggest that the region of seismic hazard changes is much larger than the area where hydrocarbons are extracted. These observations and models testify that fluid movement and pore pressure changes (increase or decrease) play important roles in the mechanics of earthquakes and in the triggering of natural earthquakes.  相似文献   

5.
The most complete and reliable data of strong (M s6.5), shallow (h<70 km) earthquakes which occurred in the inner Aegean seismic zone have been utilized to describe its seismicity time variation during 1800–1986 by two independent statistical models. The first is a sequentially stationary model of seismicity rates which shows that intervals of low seismicity rate, lasting for some 37 years, alternate with high rate intervals of 8–12 years duration. The second model is a statistical model according which seismic energy released within 5-year time windows approximates a harmonic curve within a period of about 50 years. This model is in agreement with the notion that the time series of strong earthquake occurrences in the inner Aegean seismic zone consists of a random (shocks withM s=6.5–6.8) and a nonrandom component (M s6.9). Maxima and minima of the harmonic curve coincide with the high and low rate intervals, respectively. A model of regional stationary accumulation of thermal stresses along certain seismic belts and their cyclic relaxation may explain this periodicity.  相似文献   

6.
Recent findings on the Meso-Cenozoic tectonomagmatism and deep-seated anomalous geophysical structures suggest a close linkage between the seismicity of the Koyna region, the Westernghat uplift (WG-U) and associated thermomechanical and fluid activities. The WG-U seems to be the result of late Cretaceous thermal mobilization, erosion of the Deccan trap cover and superposition of compressional stress. The association of seismicity with uplift seems to result from movement of deep-seated heat and fluids/volatiles along the edges (or boundary faults) of the uplift; because the force required for crustal deformation depends on the relief. Observed gradients in relief may be attributed to the differential erosion-rates and heat inputs, due to the time gap of 50 Ma in the break-ups and plume activities on the eastern and western sides and consequence magmatism. Further, the geology and tectonics strongly indicate that the western margin (WM) is a relic of a mobile arm (MA), that included Madagascar, and which formed a part of the Proterozoic mobile belt of greater India (fort>85 Ma). The mobile nature of the WM facilitates mantle upwellings and transient elevation of isotherms at depth, raising the possibility of intermittent metamorphism and greater deformation.Superposition of the ongoing compression and uplift-induced forces make local permeability and pore-fluid pressure vital in triggering the seismic slip over the Peninsular shield. Certain representative model calculations have been carried out to estimate change in the e.m. induction characteristics caused by an intermittent hydraulic connectivity. The results show a drop in the resistivity which could be a useful monitoring index. The close connection of uplift and fluid activity as discussed here seems applicable for other active parts of the South Indian Shield (SIS) also.  相似文献   

7.
A sequence of moderate shallow earthquakes (3.5M L5.3) was located within the Vercors massif (France) in the period 1961–1984. This subalpine massif has been a low seismic area for at least 5 centuries. During the period 1962–1963, 12 shallow earthquakes occurred in the neighborhood (10 km) of the Monteynard reservoir, 30 km south of the city of Grenoble. The latest fourM L4.0 earthquakes occurred in 1979–1984 either at larger distance (35 km) or greater depth (10 km) from the reservoir. Two triggering mechanisms are suggested for this sequence: (i) the direct effect of elastic loading through either increased shear stress or strength reducing by increased pore pressure at depth; (ii) the pore pressure diffusion induced by poroelastic stress change due to the reservoir filling.The weekly water levels, local balanced geological cross sections, and focal mechanisms argue for two types of mechanical connection between the earthquake sequence and the filling cycles of the Monteynard reservoir. The seismic sequence started with the 1962–1963 shallow earthquakes that occurred during the first filling of the reservoir and are typical of the direct effect of elastic loading. The 1979 deeper earthquake is located at a 10 km depth below the reservoir. This event occurred 16 years after the initial reservoir impoundment, but one month after the previous 1963 maximum water level was exceeded. Moreover the yearly reservoir level increased gradually in the period 1962–1979 and has decreased since 1980. Accordingly we suggest that the gradual diffusion of water from reservoir to hypocentral depths decreases the strength of the rock matrices through increased pore pressure. The transition between the two types of seismic response is supported by the analysis ofM L3.5 earthquakes which all occurred in the period 1964–1971, ranging between 10 and 30 km distance from the reservoir. The three other delayed earthquakes of the 1961–1984 seismic sequence (M L4 during the 1979–1984 period) are all located 35 km away from the reservoir. Based on the seismic activity, the estimates for the hydraulic diffusivities range between 0.2–10 m2/s, except for the first event that occurred 30 km north of the reservoir, the filling just started. The lack ofin situ measurements of crustal hydrological properties in the area, shared by most of the Reservoir-Induced-Seismicity cases, prevents us from obtaining absolute evidence for the triggering processes. These observations and conceptual models attest that previous recurrence times for moderate natural shocks (4.5M L5.5) estimated within this area using historical data, could be modified by 0.1–1 MPa stress changes. These small changes in deviatoric stress suggest that the upper crust is in this area nearly everywhere at a state of stress near failure. Although the paucity of both number and size of earthquakes in the French subalpine massif shows that aseismic displacements prevail, our study demonstrates that triggered earthquakes are important tools for assessing local seismic risk through mapping fault zones and identifying their possible seismic behavior.  相似文献   

8.
Precursory seismic quiescence: Past,present, and future   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
Precursory seismic quiescence has played a major role in most of the succesful earthquake predictions made to date. In addition to these successes, the number of detailed post-mainshock documentations of precursory quiescence is steadily growing. These facts suggest that precursory quiescence will play an important role in earthquake prediction programs of the future. For this reason it is important to critically evaluate the present state of knowledge concerning this phenomenon. The history of observations of precursory seismic quiescence includes work on seismic gaps and seismic preconditions as well as actual studies of temporal quiescence. These papers demonstrated the importance of quantitative evaluation of seismicity rates and the benefits of systematic analysis. During the early 1980's the impact of man-made effects on seismicity rates was demonstrated for the first time. Despite progress in catalog understanding, the identification and correction of man-made seismicity changes remains as the major barrier to earthquake prediction using these data. Effects of man-made changes are apparent in many past studies of seismicity patterns, making the results difficult to evaluate. Recent experience with real-time anomalies has demonstrated the necessity of determining the false alarm rates associated with quiescence precursors. Determination of false alarm rates depends on quantitative definitions of anomalies and statistical evaluations of their significance. A number of successful predictions, which have been made on the basis of seismic quiescence, provide important lessons for present and future work. There are many presently unanswered questions regarding seismic quiescence which must be answered before we can determine the reliability of this phenomena as a precursor.  相似文献   

9.
We computed a one-dimensional (1D) velocity model and station corrections refering to the Provence region (South-eastern France) by inverting P-wave arrival times recorded on an eight-station local seismic network. Using this velocity model and the program HYPOELLIPSE (Lahr, 1989), we relocated a set of 108 local events. The quality comparison between previous earthquake locations and new relocated shows a good improvement.The obtained Minimum 1D velocity model can be used in a better-quality routine for earthquake location and represent a first step towards more detailed seismic studies in the Provence region.  相似文献   

10.
A re-assessment of the historic seismicity of the central sector of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera (EC) is made by revision of bibliographic sources, by calibration with modern instrumental earthquakes, and by interpretations in terms of current knowledge of the tectonics and seismicity of the region. Throughout the process we have derived an equation to estimate Mw for shallow crustal earthquakes in Colombia using the length of isoseismal VIII, LVIII:
We also derived an equation to evaluate Mw for Colombian crustal earthquakes using the rupture length, L, estimated generally from the aftershock distribution of strong earthquakes:
We calculated average attenuation parameters for intermediate depth and shallow earthquakes that may be used, combined with other observations, to estimate the focal depth of historical events. Our final picture shows three distinct regions of the Colombian Eastern Cordillera (EC) where historical earthquakes are distributed. (a) The southern sector, from the Páramo de Sumapaz down to the Colombian Massif where the largest crustal earthquakes have occurred (1827, M 7 3/4; 1967, Mw = 7.0). (b) The central sector, between the Páramo de Sumapaz and Tunja with moderate to large earthquakes associated to the reverse faults on the piedmonts (the 1805 earthquake, M 6 3/4, on the western flank, and the 1743, 1923 and 1995 with M 6 1/2, 6 3/4, and 6.5, respectively, on the eastern flank). (c) The northern sector, to the north of Tunja, which is characterized by recurrent earthquakes probably associated with major reverse faults in the axial zone (e.g., 1646, I0 = VIII; 1724, M 6 3/4; 1755, I0 VIII; and 1928, M 5 3/4). Two events appear to be related to the axial faults to the south of Bogotá: those in 1644 (M 6) and 1917 (M = 7.1). The 1785 earthquake might have been an intraplate event in the subducting plate under the EC. Events in 1616 and 1826, which caused damage along the axial zone of the Cordillera near Bogotá, have no historical records precise enough to allow the estimation of their location and size, but their epicentres are probably not farther than some tens of kilometers from Bogotá.  相似文献   

11.
Through a detailed analysis of seismicity at the base of the transition zone, we obtain an updated value of the maximum reliable depth of confirmed seismicity, we investigate regional variation in the maximum depth of seismicity among those Wadati-Benioff zones which reach the bottom of the transition zone, and we attempt to quantify the maximum possible rate of seismic release in the lower mantle compatible with the failure to detect even a single event since the advent of modern seismological networks. We classify deep subduction zones into three groups: those whose seismicity does not reach beyond 620 km, those whose seismicity appears to terminate around 650–660 km, and Tonga-Kermadec (and the Vityaz cluster) whose seismicity extends to 685–690 km. We suggest that the depth extent of seismicity is controlled by the depth of the pv + mw transition responsible for the 660-km seismic discontinuity, which is deflected to greater depths in cold slabs than in warmer ones. We note that this transition marks the depth below which thermal perturbation of phase transitions no longer generates buoyancy anomalies and their large attendant down-dip compressive stresses and below which strain energy generated by other mechanisms may not accumulate to seismogenic levels due to superplastic weakness in fine-grained materials. We find that the maximum level of seismic activity in the lower mantle must be at least three orders of magnitude less than that observed in the transition zone.  相似文献   

12.
Faulting and seismicity in the upper continental crust require considerable differential stresses. Application of experimentally developed friction, fracture and flow laws shows that high differential stresses can only exist in the uppermost crust. Direct hydraulic fracturing measurements in deep boreholes seem to support this rock mechanics conclusion. The experimental data base presently consists of approximately 500 hydrofrac tests conducted in about 100 boreholes at about 30 different geographical locations. To illustrate the variation of measured stresses with depth, the data are expressed as dimensionless horizontal stresses in the formS H,h/Sv=(/z)+, whereS v=gz Extrapolation of the experimental data to greater depth shows that the minor horizontal stress approaches the valueS h/Sv=0.5 which limits friction on wet faults, and that the major horizontal stress approaches a value close toS H/Sv=1 at rather shallow depth (5 to 10 km.). This limits faulting and seismicity in most of the upper crust to either strike-slip or normal faults. The lower boundary for seismicity is mainly dependent on tectonic strain accumulation and rock creep at the environmental conditions at depth.  相似文献   

13.
New Developments in Seismic Risk Assessment in Italy   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
  相似文献   

14.
Seismic activity that preceded, accompanied, and followed the 17–23 March 1981 Etnean eruption has been statistically analyzed.On the grounds of both time evolution of seismicity and catalogue completeness, three time intervals have been defined (12 February–2 March, 12–17 March, 19–31 March) and for each of these periods both the b coefficient of theGutenberg-Richter's (1956) relationship and the E parameter of the cluster size (Shlien andToksoz, 1970) have been calculated.No significant variations were observed between the first and third periods, while lower values of bothb andE coefficients were found in the second one. These findings might indicate that changes in the seismicity features occur just before the eruption start.Small but fast variations in the stress field acting on the volcano might originate this type of seismic activity, while the importance of the tectonic control on volcanic phenomena seems to be confirmed.  相似文献   

15.
We investigate the influence of spatial heterogeneities on various aspects of brittle failure and seismicity in a model of a large strike-slip fault. The model dynamics is governed by realistic boundary conditions consisting of constant velocity motion of regions around the fault, static/kinetic friction laws, creep with depth-dependent coefficients, and 3-D elastic stress transfer. The dynamic rupture is approximated on a continuous time scale using a finite stress propagation velocity (quasidynamic model). The model produces a brittle-ductile transition at a depth of about 12.5 km, realistic hypocenter distributions, and other features of seismicity compatible with observations. Previous work suggested that the range of size scales in the distribution of strength-stress heterogeneities acts as a tuning parameter of the dynamics. Here we test this hypothesis by performing a systematic parameter-space study with different forms of heterogeneities. In particular, we analyze spatial heterogeneities that can be tuned by a single parameter in two distributions: (1) high stress drop barriers in near-vertical directions and (2) spatial heterogeneities with fractal properties and variable fractal dimension. The results indicate that the first form of heterogeneities provides an effective means of tuning the behavior while the second does not. In relatively homogeneous cases, the fault self-organizes to large-scale patches and big events are associated with inward failure of individual patches and sequential failures of different patches. The frequency-size event statistics in such cases are compatible with the characteristic earthquake distribution and large events are quasi-periodic in time. In strongly heterogeneous or near-critical cases, the rupture histories are highly discontinuous and consist of complex migration patterns of slip on the fault. In such cases, the frequency-size and temporal statistics follow approximately power-law relations.on leave from CNRS Rennes, France  相似文献   

16.
The integration of terrain computer modeling with field methods may provide a powerful mechanism for understanding active faults geometry, kinematics and long-term fault behavior. Radar interferometry was used on ERS tandem images to create a geocoded DEM (InSAR-DEM) with a nominal 20-m spatial-resolution of the central Apennines axial zone, a seismically active area characterized by historical destructive earthquakes with M 7. The potential was tested of InSAR-DEM application to the Fucino and Sulmona basin boundary faults, which have well-defined seismological, paleoseismological and/or geological evidence for their having seismogenic sources. In particular, slope maps extracted from the InSAR-DEM were used for fault scarps detection, whether on carbonate bedrock (fault scarp type 2) or affecting continental deposits within the basin (fault scarp type 1), and compared with the available geological and new field data. In order to assess the DEM accuracy and to evaluate morphometric parameters related to the long-term slip-rates of the faults, a set of topographic profiles was extracted from the InSAR-DEM and compared with analogous profiles derived from the available topographic map (i.e., 1/25,000, with 25 m contour interval). In particular, the use of InSAR-DEM analyses showed its better results, with respect to the standard topography, for urban/agricultural gently sloped areas where fault scarps affected unconsolidated and particularly soft sediments (e.g., Fucino basin fault systems), while in severely sloped carbonate ridge and forested areas low coherences and layover effects made InSAR-DEM application problematic. A maximum value of 1.1 ± 0.2 mm yr–1 slip-rate was obtained for the Fucino boundary fault. Finally, the recognized en-échelon pattern of the Sulmona basin boundary fault, provided a segmentation model for this structure corroborated by geological-structural field data.  相似文献   

17.
By statistica means, the temporal variation of the seismic activity in Albania is discussed in this study. We have investigated the seismic energy release for this century also using the periodogram technique to study the time series of the seismic energy release.A sequentially stationary model to evaluate the seismic rates for Albanian earthquakes with magnitudeM s 6.0, is constructed, by using the least square method.The study of seismic energy release for Albanian earthquakes of this century and the time distribution of major earthquakes for the last two centuries supports the cyclicity of the seismic activity in a regional scale.  相似文献   

18.
We consider a general stochastic branching process,which is relevant to earthquakes as well as to many other systems, and we study the distributions of the total number of offsprings (direct and indirect aftershocks in seismicity) and of the total number of generations before extinction. We apply our results to a branching model of triggered seismicity, the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) model. The ETAS model assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes (aftershocks). An aftershock sequence results in this model from the cascade of aftershocks of each past earthquake. Due to the large fluctuations of the number of aftershocks triggered directly by any earthquake (fertility), there is a large variability of the total number of aftershocks from one sequence to another, for the same mainshock magnitude. We study the regime in which the distribution of fertilities is characterized by a power law ~1/1+. For earthquakes we expect such a power-distribution of fertilities with =b/ based on the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution ~ 10–bm and on the increase ~ 10–m of the number of aftershocks with the mainshock magnitude m. We derive the asymptotic distributions pr(r) and pg(g) of the total number r of offsprings and of the total number g of generations until extinction following a mainshock. In the regime < 2 for which the distribution of fertilities has an infinite variance, we find This should be compared with the distributions obtained for standard branching processes with finite variance. These predictions are checked by numerical simulations. Our results apply directly to the ETAS model whose preferred values =0.8–1 and b=1 puts it in the regime where the distribution of fertilities has an infinite variance. More generally, our results apply to any stochastic branching process with a power-law distribution of offsprings per mother  相似文献   

19.
The high likelihood of a gap-filling thrust earthquake in the Alaska subduction zone within this decade is indicated by two independent methods: analysis of historic earthquake recurrence data and time-to-failure analysis applied to recent decades of instrumental data. Recent (May 1993) earthquake activity in the Shumagin Islands gap is consistent with previous projections of increases in seismic release, indicating that this segment, along with the Alaska Peninsula segment, is approaching failure. Based on this pattern of accelerating seismic release, we project the occurrence of one or moreM7.3 earthquakes in the Shumagin-Alaska Peninsula region during 1994–1996. Different segments of the Alaska-Aleutian seismic zone behave differently in the decade or two preceding great earthquakes, some showing acceleration of seismic release (type A zones), while others show deceleration (type D zones). The largest Alaska-Aleutian earthquakes—in 1957, 1964, and 1965—originated in zones that exhibit type D behavior. Type A zones currently showing accelerating release are the Shumagin, Alaska Peninsula, Delarof, and Kommandorski segments. Time-to-failure analysis suggests that the large earthquakes could occur in these latter zones within the next few years.  相似文献   

20.
Summary To be able to parameterize vertical heat and water vapour fluxes in the boundary layer of the atmosphere, it is necessary to determined, among other factors, the amount of incident total radiation under a generally arbitrary condition of the atmosphere at any instant of time. This paper deals with a simple model for computing the total radiation based on known solar elevation, total cloud cover and the atmospheric turbidity parameter. This variant of the model was formulated on the basis of a two-year series of total radiation observations made in the radiation network of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, and on the measurements and observations made at the observatory of the Institute of the Physics of the Atmosphere in Kopisty. An example of comparing the observed and theoretical values of total radiation will also be given.
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