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1.
Analysis of changes in the critical frequency foF2 in recent decades has been performed by determination of “Delta foF2” parameter. These values determine the mean change of foF2 values from the “etalon period” (1958–1980) to later periods. The results are compared with the determination of foF2 trends, which was performed in a series of previous publications of the authors. The data of two most reliable ionospheric stations of the European region, Slough and Juliusruh, are analyzed. The results confirm all principal conclusions obtained earlier, which were based on analysis of the trends. A systematic decrease of foF2 with time occurs (which corresponds to a negative trend), and the character of changes in the Delta values with season and local time on the whole agrees with the character of changes in the trend. It is shown that the results based on the data of both considered stations show good agreement.  相似文献   

2.
This study deals with the optimal design of detention dams under flood discharge uncertainties using a simulation-based optimization approach. An extended methodology is represented by integrating the ant colony optimization (ACO), artificial neural networks, and various risk measures including: expected flood discharge, value at risk, and conditional value at risk (CVaR). For this purpose, first, the neural network is trained by the results of a hydrodynamic model and then it is used to measure different risk indices under flood uncertainties. The proposed approach is then applied to a real case and optimal designs are determined by the search algorithm-i.e. ACO. Different optimal designs are obtained for the storage detention dams when different risk concepts are implemented as the objective function in the system modeling. Particularly, when the expected value measure is combined with the CVaR, the cost of optimal design is nearly two times smaller than those obtained by the formulation with independent objective functions whereas the obtained solution could efficiently minimize both E(Q d ) and CVaR. The optimal solutions have especial capabilities in terms of performance and cost levels and this gives the stakeholders and decision makers to construct a framework to choose the final design when there are different attitudes and interests for flood risk management.  相似文献   

3.
The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b m , N, M 1, M 2) that an observed b m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M 1????≤?ΔM/2,?M 2?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.  相似文献   

4.
Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.  相似文献   

5.
We have studied the influence of daytime polar substorms (geomagnetic bays under the IMF Bz > 0) on variations of the vertical gradient of the atmospheric electric field potential (Ez) observed at the Polish Hornsund Station (Svalbard, Norway). Only the observations of Ez under “fair weather” conditions were used, i.e. in the absence of strong wind, precipitations, low cloud cover, etc. We studied more than 20 events of daytime polar substorms registered by the Scandinavian chain of IMAGE magnetometers in 2010–2014 during the “fair weather” periods at the Hornsund Station. Analysis of the observations showed that Ez significantly deviates from the its background variations during daytime, as a rule, when the Hornsund Station is in the region of projection of the daytime auroral oval, the position of which was determined from OVATION data. It was shown that the development of a daytime polar substorm leads to fluctuating enhance of Ez values. It was found that Ez surges are accompanied by intensification of field-aligned electric currents outflowing from the ionosphere, which were calculated from the data of low-orbit communication satellites of the AMPERE project.  相似文献   

6.
Microstructure measurements were performed along two sections through the Halmahera Sea and the Ombai Strait and at a station in the deep Banda Sea. Contrasting dissipation rates (??) and vertical eddy diffusivities (K z ) were obtained with depth-averaged ranges of \(\sim [9 \times 10^{-10}-10^{-5}]\) W kg??1 and of \(\sim [1 \times 10^{-5}-2 \times 10^{-3}]\) m2 s??1, respectively. Similarly, turbulence intensity, \(I={\epsilon }/(\nu N^{2})\) with ν the kinematic viscosity and N the buoyancy frequency, was found to vary seven orders of magnitude with values up to \(10^{7}\). These large ranges of variations were correlated with the internal tide energy level, which highlights the contrast between regions close and far from internal tide generations. Finescale parameterizations of ?? induced by the breaking of weakly nonlinear internal waves were only relevant in regions located far from any generation area (“far field”), at the deep Banda Sea station. Closer to generation areas, at the “intermediate field” station of the Halmahera Sea, a modified formulation of MacKinnon and Gregg (2005) was validated for moderately turbulent regimes with 100 < I < 1000. Near generation areas marked by strong turbulent regimes such as “near field” stations within strait and passages, ?? is most adequately inferred from horizontal velocities provided that part of the inertial subrange is resolved, according to Kolmogorov scaling.  相似文献   

7.
The percent model affinity (PMA) index is used to measure the similarity of two probability profiles representing, for example, an ideal profile (i.e. reference condition) and a monitored profile (i.e. possibly impacted condition). The goal of this work is to study the effects of sample size, evenness, true value of the index and number of classes on the statistical properties of the estimator of the PMA index. We derive and extend previous formulas of the expectation and variance of the estimator for estimated monitored profile and fixed reference profile. Using the obtained extension, we find that the estimator is asymptotically unbiased, converging faster when the profiles differ. When both profiles are estimated, we calculate the expectation using transformation rules for expectation and in addition derive the formula for the estimator’s variance. Since the computation of the probabilities in the variance formula is slow, we study the behavior of the variance with simulation experiments and assess whether it could be approximated with the variance for the fixed reference profile. Finally, we provide a set of recommendations for the users of the PMA index to avoid the most common caveats of the index.  相似文献   

8.
The change in the dependence of the F2-layer critical frequency on its height hmF2 is considered based on two sources of initial data used earlier by the authors. It is found that the slope k of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 systematically decreases from the earlier (“etalon”) period, 1958–1980, to the later periods of 1988–2010, 1998–2010, and 1998–2014. Since the foF2 value depends on the atomic oxygen concentration in the F region much more strongly than hmF2, the found decrease in k confirms the concept of a decrease in the atomic oxygen concentration in the thermosphere with time previously formulated by the authors.  相似文献   

9.
Soil failure can be used for seismic protection of structures   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
A new seismic design philosophy is illuminated, taking advantage of soil “failure” to protect the superstructure. Instead of over-designing the foundation to ensure that the loading stemming from the structural inertia can be “safely” transmitted onto the soil (as with conventional capacity design), and then reinforce the superstructure to avoid collapse, why not do exactly the opposite by intentionally under-designing the foundation to act as a “safety valve” ? The need for this “reversal” stems from the uncertainty in predicting the actual earthquake motion, and the necessity of developing new more rational and economically efficient earthquake protection solutions. A simple but realistic bridge structure is used as an example to illustrate the effectiveness of the new approach. Two alternatives are compared : one complying with conventional capacity design, with over-designed foundation so that plastic “hinging” develops in the superstructure; the other following the new design philosophy, with under-designed foundation, “inviting” the plastic “hinge” into the soil. Static “pushover” analyses reveal that the ductility capacity of the new design concept is an order of magnitude larger than of the conventional design: the advantage of “utilising” progressive soil failure. The seismic performance of the two alternatives is investigated through nonlinear dynamic time history analyses, using an ensemble of 29 real accelerograms. It is shown that the performance of both alternatives is totally acceptable for moderate intensity earthquakes, not exceeding the design limits. For large intensity earthquakes, exceeding the design limits, the performance of the new design scheme is proven advantageous, not only avoiding collapse but hardly suffering any inelastic structural deformation. It may however experience increased residual settlement and rotation: a price to pay that must be properly assessed in design.  相似文献   

10.
Timber constructions have been widely suggested to be seismically resistant based on post-disaster reconnaissance studies. This observation has, however, remained to a large extent anecdotal due to the lack of experimental work supporting it, especially for certain timber architectural forms, including traditional timber frame “h?m??” structures. To fill this gap, the authors carried out an extensive full-scale testing scheme using frames of various geometrical configurations, tested under reverse-cyclic lateral loading with/without infill (brick and adobe) or cladding (ba?dadi and ?amdolma) (Aktas et al. in Earthq Spectra 30(4):1711–1732, 2014a, b). The tests concluded that h?m?? frames had high energy dissipation capabilities due mostly to nailed connections. Infill/cladding significantly helped improve stiffness and lateral load strength of the frames, and timber type did not seem to make a remarkable impact on the overall behaviour. The current paper, on the other hand, uses test data to calculate capacity/demand ratios based on capacity spectrum method and Eurocode 8 to elaborate more on the performance of “h?m??” structures under seismic loading. The obtained results are discussed to draw important conclusions with regards to how frame geometry and infill/cladding techniques affect the overall performance.  相似文献   

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