共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 93 毫秒
1.
作为主要的初级生产者,浮游植物在水生生态系统中扮演着重要的角色,浮游植物的时空分布反映了生态环境的变化.依据浮游植物的形态、生理、生态特点而定义的浮游藻类功能群对藻类的耐受性和敏感性进行了描述,因而浮游藻类功能群的组成是生境特征的良好指示者.对1960s至今抚仙湖、洱海、滇池3个高原湖泊的浮游藻类组成进行分析,并首次将功能群理论运用到这3个湖泊.结果表明,3个湖泊的浮游藻类优势功能群组成在近50～60年间发生了明显的改变:抚仙湖的浮游藻类优势功能群演变过程为C、X2、Lo、F、P(1960s)-H1、C、P(1980s)-P、C、T(1990s)-T(2000年以后);洱海的浮游藻类优势功能群演变过程为J、Lo、MP、C、H1(1960s)-C、H1(1980s)-C、H1(1990s)-C、H1、M(2000年以后);滇池的浮游藻类优势功能群演变过程为J、N、P、MP、Lo(1960s)-J、P、MP、M(1980s)-J、M(1990s)-M(2000年以后).抚仙湖、洱海、滇池水体内的藻类功能群演替趋势特征,即耐低温物种的减少以及喜营养物种的增加,表明3个高原湖泊在近几十年可能受到了气候变暖和营养程度增加的影响. 相似文献
2.
《中国科学:地球科学》2016,(10)
作为全球变化的主要表现之一,气候变暖对人类赖以生存的地球环境已经产生了不可磨灭的影响.其中,气候变暖如何影响污染物传播引起了科学家的广泛关注.持久性有机污染物(POPs)是可以进行全球传输的污染物.揭示气候变暖对POPs全球循环的影响机制对于准确理解POPs循环的过程和相关政策的制定具有重要的指导意义.本文综述了此领域近十年来的主要研究工作,总结了气候变暖对POPs排放、迁移、储存、降解和毒性的影响,简述了相关模型的特点和主要应用,并指出目前研究中存在的问题以及未来研究的主要方向.在气候变暖条件下,POPs全球循环的变化主要体现在以下几个方面:(1)全球变暖直接促进了POPs的二次排放,升温将导致POPs从土壤和海洋中挥发出来,而冰川融化、冻土退化则可以将POPs二次释放进入淡水生态系统;(2)全球极端气候(干旱和洪水)通过剧烈的地表侵蚀过程,将土壤所负载的POPs重新释放进入环境,进而改变了POPs的全球分布;(3)气候变暖条件下大气与海洋环流的变化将显著改变全球POPs的迁移路径;(4)气候变暖改变了海洋生物生产力,进而改变了海洋对POPs的储存能力;(5)部分地区水生及陆地食物链结构在气候变暖的情景下发生了明显变化,这种变化可以导致POPs在生态系统中毒性的放大;(6)尽管气候变暖在促使POPs再挥发的同时也加速着其降解的过程,但是总体上气候变暖增加了环境中POPs的总量;(7)各种模型的耦合应用对未来气候变暖情景下POPs环境行为的反馈与响应进行了预测,这些工作有助于政策和法律制定者在POPs控制措施中全面考虑气候变暖对POPs环境载荷的影响.在未来,气候变暖与全球变化的其他表现协同影响POPs的循环将是下一步的研究重点,POPs与碳循环、水循环互相关联耦合,其相互作用机制将是生态系统对气候变化适应性研究的一个新方向. 相似文献
3.
气候变化对湖库水环境的潜在影响研究进展 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
本文着重归纳气候变化对湖库热力特性、冰期、溶解氧、营养盐、浮游植物和水生植物等方面的影响规律,探讨气候变化对湖库水环境潜在影响的区域差异,讨论现有研究方法的优缺点和发展前景.研究表明,气候变暖对湖库物理过程的影响最为显著;热带草原气候和温带海洋性气候对于气候变暖和降雨变化的响应较其他气候类型突出;气候变化对湖库水环境的影响效果具有两面性.通过分析各气候类型中气候变暖对磷水平的潜在影响差异表明,亚热带季风气候的湖库更可能受气候变暖的影响趋于富营养状态.在今后研究中,建议深入开展各气候类型中区域性气候变化对湖库水环境影响的实例研究. 相似文献
4.
全球变暖对淡水湖泊浮游植物影响研究进展 总被引：9，自引：6，他引：3
全球变暖对湖泊生态系统的影响已经成为近年来湖沼学领域的研究热点.本文首先列举了目前研究全球变暖对淡水湖泊浮游植物影响的常用方法:监测数据分析、时空转换、遥感信息提取、控制实验、模型预测和古湖沼学技术等.研究结果表明气候变暖导致的气温升高、湖泊热力分层提前破坏以及无冰期提前等因素可导致春季物候提前;在全球变暖大背景下浮游植物群落结构正朝着蓝藻占优的方向发展,但是不同地区以及不同物种对全球变暖的响应不一致.在营养盐充足的湖泊中,由于全球变暖延长了浮游植物生长季节等,从而能提高浮游植物初级生产力;但在贫营养湖泊中,浮游植物初级生产力与变暖趋势甚至可能呈负相关.由于生态系统往往是多因子的共同作用,这也使得全球变暖对浮游植物群落的影响效应复杂化,区分各因子的净影响份额是目前研究的一个难点;全球变暖引起的风场改变会促进浅水湖泊中营养盐从底泥的释放,同时也会增加水体中悬浮物的浓度而影响水下光场,因此开展气候变化对再悬浮及浮游植物群落结构的影响可能是将来研究的一个切入点. 相似文献
5.
《中国科学:地球科学》2016,(2)
过去温度变化的定量记录对于深入探讨气候变化机制非常重要,不仅有助于检验并改善气候模式模拟的准确性,也可以为全球变化背景下的气候变化幅度提供参考.青藏高原由于其特殊的地理位置影响着大气环流格局,研究青藏高原气候变化有助于理解高原对全球气候变化的响应及其与全球气候系统之间的关系.生物标志化合物代用指标在气候变化研究中的应用为定量重建高原过去温度变化提供了可能.湖泊沉积物中甘油二烷基甘油四醚类化合物(GDGTs)来源相对复杂,其分布特征受多种气候与环境因素影响.本文对青藏高原27个湖泊表层沉积物及部分湖泊流域表土样品GDGTs进行分析,探讨湖泊表层沉积物中GDGTs分布特征的影响因素,并建立其与气候要素的定量关系.结果显示:(1)绝大多数湖泊表层沉积物GDGTs以b GDGTs为主,crenarchaeol和GDGT-0含量较低;(2)高原多数湖泊表层沉积物与表土GDGTs分布没有显著差异,表明i GDGTs可能同时来源于湖泊环境和陆源输入;(3)湖泊表层沉积物i GDGTs分布主要受湖水水化学要素(p H和盐度)及近地表大气年均温的影响,对于青藏高原小型湖泊,TEX86可能反映湖水p H的变化;(4)湖泊表层沉积物b GDGTs分布主要受气候要素(温度和降水)控制;(5)利用已发表的转换方程重建高原同一地区温度差异明显,因此利用GDGTs定量重建青藏高原过去气候前必须开展GDGTs的现代过程调查.本研究基于湖泊表层沉积物b GDGTs分布,分别利用代用指标(MBT,CBT)及不同b GDGTs化合物组分丰度(fabun)与湖泊所在地的年均气温(MAAT)建立了适用于青藏高原湖泊古气候研究的转换方程,为高原古气候定量重建提供研究基础. 相似文献
6.
全球变化下青藏高原湖泊在地表水循环中的作用 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
青藏高原是地球上最重要的高海拔地区之一,对全球变化具有敏感响应.青藏高原作为"亚洲水塔",其地表水资源及其变化对高原本身及周边地区的经济社会发展具有重要的影响.然而,在气候变暖的情况下,构成高原地表水资源的各个组分,如冰川、湖泊、河流、降水等水体的相变及其转化却鲜为人知.湖泊是青藏高原地表水体相变和水循环的关键环节.湖泊面积、水位和水量对西风和印度季风的降水变化非常敏感,但湖泊面积和水量变化在不同区域和时段的响应也不尽相同.湖泊水温对气候变暖具有明显响应,湖泊水温和水下温跃层深度的变化能够对水—气的热量交换具有明显影响,从而影响了区域蒸发和降水等水循环过程.由于湖泊水量增加,高原中部色林错地区湖泊盐度自1970s以来普遍下降.根据60多个湖泊实地监测建立的遥感反演模型研究发现,2000—2019年湖泊透明度普遍升高.对不同补给类型的大湖水量平衡监测发现,影响湖泊变化的气象和水文要素具有较大差异.在目前的暖湿气候条件下,青藏高原的湖泊将会持续扩张.为了深入认识湖泊变化在青藏高原区域水循环和气候变化中的作用,需要全面了解湖泊水量赋存及连续的时间序列变化,需要深入了解湖泊理化参数变化及对湖泊大气之间热量交换的影响,需要更多来自大湖流域的综合连续观测数据. 相似文献
7.
长江中下游典型湖泊营养盐历史变化模拟 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
湖泊营养盐变化在自然条件下受到气候水文因素控制,同时受到湖泊生态系统生物群落作用和反馈.作为动力机制探讨,本文试图基于水文和生态动力学方法,分别构建气候-流域水文作用于湖泊营养盐的外源模式和湖泊生物群落作用于湖泊营养盐的內源模式.针对长江中下游典型湖泊,经过控制实验和率定,发现营养盐模拟与观测数据在时间序列上达到90%百分位的正相关,因此用来模拟1640 1840 A.D.期间的营养盐演变历史.研究表明:(1)模拟的湖泊营养盐变化与沉积钻孔揭示的历史营养盐变化基本一致,沉积记录与模式模拟的7个湖泊的营养盐变化均显著相关;(2)气候因素是湖泊营养盐历史演变的主控因子,来自于湖泊生物群落的反馈作用贡献约占40%;(3)在温度和降水因子的驱动下,湖泊营养盐历史变化主要受降水控制,在极端干旱时期,60%的营养盐变化同步响应于降水变化.同时,面积在400 km2以下的湖泊营养盐对气候变化的响应比2000 km2以上的大湖更为敏感.研究结果对长江中下游湖泊营养状态的长期变化机理认识和趋势控制提供科学依据. 相似文献
8.
全球变暖对湖泊生态系统的影响已经成为近年来湖沼学领域的研究热点。本文首先列举了目前研究全球变暖对淡水湖泊浮游植物影响的常用方法：监测数据分析、时空转换、遥感信息提取、控制实验、模型预测和古湖沼学技术等。研究结果表明气候变暖导致的气温升高、湖泊热力分层提前破坏以及无冰期提前等因素可导致春季物候提前；在全球变暖大背景下浮游植物群落结构正朝着蓝藻占优的方向发展，但是不同地区以及不同物种对全球变暖的响应不一致。在营养盐充足的湖泊中，由于全球变暖延长了浮游植物生长季节等，从而能提高浮游植物初级生产力；但在贫营养湖泊中，浮游植物初级生产力与变暖趋势甚至可能呈负相关。由于生态系统往往是多因子的共同作用，这也使得全球变暖对浮游植物群落的影响效应复杂化，区分各因子的净影响份额是目前研究的一个难点；全球变暖引起的风场改变会促进浅水湖泊中营养盐从底泥的释放，同时也会增加水体中悬浮物的浓度而影响水下光场，因此开展气候变化对再悬浮及浮游植物群落结构的影响可能是将来研究的一个切入点。 相似文献
9.
10.
新疆博斯腾湖记录的亚洲内陆干旱区小冰期湿润气候研究 总被引：10，自引：1，他引：10
利用中国内陆干旱区最大淡水湖泊博斯腾湖中心的钻孔岩芯, 在137Cs, 210Pb和AMS 14C测年基础上, 对湖泊岩芯孢粉组合、碳酸盐含量和粒度等多指标进行了分析. 结果发现, 近1000年来, 内陆干旱区气候变化经历了3个主要阶段, 1000~1500 AD干旱、1500~1900 AD湿润和1900 AD以来的再次变干, 近千年来在几百年尺度上的气候变化组合以暖干和冷湿为主. 在公元1500~1900年的小冰期期间, 多种代用指标均出现显著变化, 孢粉蒿藜比显著增大, 碳酸盐含量明显降低, 而粒度明显偏粗, 说明博斯腾湖流域降水增加, 气候比今湿润, 这与近百年来全球变暖条件下内陆干旱区出现的暖干气候形成显著对照. 亚洲内陆冰芯、湖泊、河流、树轮、沙漠等记录均记录了西风环流显著影响区较为湿润的小冰期气候, 出现明显的冷湿气候组合, 博斯腾湖岩芯记录的湿润小冰期气候具有代表性. 西风环流影响区湿润小冰期气候可能是全球性普遍降温导致有效湿度增加和因北大西洋涛动负异常而导致的西风影响区降水增加两个因素共同作用的结果. 相似文献
11.
Effects of climate change on thermal properties of lakes and reservoirs, and possible implications 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
G. B. Sahoo S. G. Schladow J. E. Reuter R. Coats 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(4):445-456
Meteorologic-driven processes exert large and diverse impacts on lakes’ internal heating, cooling, and mixing. Thus, continued
global warming and climate change will affect lakes’ thermal properties, dynamics, and ecosystem. The impact of climate change
on Lake Tahoe (in the states of California and Nevada in the United States) is investigated here, as a case study of climate
change effects on the physical processes occurring within a lake. In the Tahoe basin, air temperature data show upward trends
and streamflow trends indicate earlier snowmelt. Precipitation in the basin is shifting from snow to rain, and the frequency
of intense rainfall events is increasing. In-lake water temperature records of the past 38 years (1970–2007) show that Lake
Tahoe is warming at an average rate of 0.013°C/year. The future trends of weather variables, such as air temperature, precipitation,
longwave radiation, downward shortwave radiation, and wind speed are estimated from predictions of three General Circulation
Models (GCMs) for the period 2001–2100. Future trends of weather variables of each GCM are found to be different to those
of the other GCMs. A series of simulation years into the future (2000–2040) is established using streamflows and associated
loadings, and meteorologic data sets for the period 1994–2004. Future simulation years and trends of weather variables are
selected so that: (1) future simulated warming trend would be consistent with the observed warming trend (0.013°C/year); and
(2) future mixing pattern frequency would closely match with the historical mixing pattern frequency. Results of 40-year simulations
show that the lake continues to become warmer and more stable, and mixing is reduced. Continued warming in the Tahoe has important
implications for efforts towards managing biodiversity and maintaining clarity of the lake. 相似文献
12.
The Global Warming Debate: A Review of the State of Science 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
A review of the present status of the global warming science is presented in this paper. The term global warming is now popularly used to refer to the recent reported increase in the mean surface temperature of the earth; this increase being attributed to increasing human activity and in particular to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) in the atmosphere. Since the mid to late 1980s there has been an intense and often emotional debate on this topic. The various climate change reports (1996, 2001) prepared by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), have provided the scientific framework that ultimately led to the Kyoto protocol on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (particularly carbon dioxide) due to the burning of fossil fuels. Numerous peer-reviewed studies reported in recent literature have attempted to verify several of the projections on climate change that have been detailed by the IPCC reports.The global warming debate as presented by the media usually focuses on the increasing mean temperature of the earth, associated extreme weather events and future climate projections of increasing frequency of extreme weather events worldwide. In reality, the climate change issue is considerably more complex than an increase in the earth’s mean temperature and in extreme weather events. Several recent studies have questioned many of the projections of climate change made by the IPCC reports and at present there is an emerging dissenting view of the global warming science which is at odds with the IPCC view of the cause and consequence of global warming. Our review suggests that the dissenting view offered by the skeptics or opponents of global warming appears substantially more credible than the supporting view put forth by the proponents of global warming. Further, the projections of future climate change over the next fifty to one hundred years is based on insufficiently verified climate models and are therefore not considered reliable at this point in time. 相似文献
13.
利用NOAA/AVHRR归一化植被指数（NDVI）及观测气温与再分析地表气温的差值（Observation Minus Reanalysis, OMR）分析了植被覆盖状况对中国地表气温变化的影响.结果表明，地表气温OMR趋势值与NDVI在空间上呈现出显著的负相关关系，植被覆盖状况差（NDVI小于0.1）的区域地表升温较为显著，气温OMR趋势值超过0.2℃/10a，而植被覆盖度高（NDVI大于0.5）的区域气温OMR趋势值则变化不大，甚至出现降温.气温OMR趋势值对植被的季节变化还有着敏感的响应.不同区域植被覆盖状况的差异可能导致中国地表气温变化对全球变暖的响应不同，预测中国未来气候变化需要考虑植被覆盖状况及其动态变化的影响. 相似文献
14.
Future climate and runoff projections across New South Wales,Australia: results and practical applications 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
This paper describes the rainfall–runoff modelling for New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) under historical climate and the likely changes to runoff around the year 2030 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES A1B global warming scenario. Results show that the mean annual historical rainfall and runoff, averaged over the entire region, are 516 and 55 mm, respectively. There is considerable uncertainty in the global climate modelling (GCM) of rainfall response in the region to global warming. The majority of GCMs show a decrease in the mean annual rainfall and the median estimate indicates that future mean annual runoff in the region in ～2030 relative to ～1990 will be lower by 0–20% in the southern parts, no change to a slight reduction in the eastern parts and higher by 0–20% in the northwest corner. Averaged across the entire region, the median estimate is a 5% decrease in the mean annual runoff and the extreme estimates range from a 14% decrease to a 10% increase in mean annual runoff. This is the first comprehensive study on the hydrological impacts of climate change done in NSW that covers the entire state. Outputs from this study are being used to underpin the hydrology for a number of major climate change impact studies that are presently underway across NSW. The results and output datasets from this study will be available through a web interface and they can be used by all state government agencies and industries in NSW to plan for and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a central role for the climate in the Atlantic realm. Since scenarios
for future climate change indicate a significant reduction of the MOC under global warming, an assessment of variations and
trends of the real MOC is important. Using observations at ocean weather ship (OWS) stations and along oceanic sections, we
examine the hydrographic information that can be used to determine MOC trends via its signature in water mass properties obtained
from model simulations with the climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. We show that temperature trends at mid-latitudes provide useful
indirect measure of large-scale changes of deep circulation: A mid-depth warming is related to MOC weakening and a cooling
to MOC strengthening. Based on our model experiments, we argue that a continuation of measurements at key OWS sites may contribute
to a timely detection of a possible future MOC slowdown and to separate the signal from interannual-to-multidecadal MOC variability.
The simulations suggest that the subsurface hydrographic information related to MOC has a lower variability than the MOC trend
measured directly. Based on our model and the available long-term hydrographic data, we estimate non-significant MOC trends
for the last 80 years. For the twenty-first century, however, the model simulations predict a significant MOC decline and
accompanied mid-depth warming trend. 相似文献
16.
Climate change and global cycling of persistent organic pollutants: A critical review 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Climate warming, one of the main features of global change, has exerted indelible impacts on the environment, among which the impact on the transport and fate of pollutants has aroused widespread concern. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are a class of pollutants that are transported worldwide. Determining the impact of climate warming on the global cycling of POPs is important for understanding POP cycling processes and formulating relevant environmental policies. In this review, the main research findings in this field over the past ten years are summarized and the effects of climate warming on emissions, transport, storage, degradation and toxicity of POPs are reviewed. This review also summarizes the primary POP fate models and their application. Additionally, research gaps and future research directions are identified and suggested. Under the influence of climate change, global cycling of POPs mainly shows the following responses. (1) Global warming directly promotes the secondary emission of POPs; for example, temperature rise will cause POPs to be re-released from soils and oceans, and melting glaciers and permafrost can re-release POPs into freshwater ecosystems. (2) Global extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods, result in the redistribution of POPs through intense soil erosion. (3) The changes in atmospheric circulation and ocean currents have significantly influenced the global transport of POPs. (4) Climate warming has altered marine biological productivity, which has changed the POP storage capacity of the ocean. (5) Aquatic and terrestrial food-chain structures have undergone significant changes, which could lead to amplification of POP toxicity in ecosystems. (6) Overall, warming accelerates the POP volatilization process and increases the amount of POPs in the environment, although global warming facilitates their degradation at the same time. (7) Various models have predicted the future environmental behaviors of POPs. These models are used to assist governments in comprehensively considering the impact of global warming on the environmental fate of POPs and therefore controlling POPs effectively. Future studies should focus on the synergistic effects of global changes on the cycling of POPs. Additionally, the interactions among global carbon cycling, water cycling and POP cycling will be a new research direction for better understanding the adaptation of ecosystems to climate change. 相似文献
17.
自2009年入冬以来北半球经受了创记录的严寒侵袭,联合国IPCC报告的权威性受到质疑。地球气候变化趋向陷入纷争的境地。从地质学和考古学的视角,以更长的时间周期去认识和了解气候变化规律和成因机制,或许对将来气候的长期预报有所启示。地球在漫长的演化史中经历了以千万年计的＂地质气候旋回＂、千百年计的＂史前气候周期＂及近现代以百年计的＂世纪气候波动＂。不同级次的周期均为内在自然因素所制约,CO2含量在地球演化史中趋于波动下降过程,当代的CO2浓度和气温均处于地质史的低点。人类活动可能在百年尺度内存在对气候和生态环境的影响。自20世纪初开始至今近百年升温趋向中,令人关注的是在中国曾有1941年、1969年、2009~2010年之交极度低温的出现,＂低温节点＂时距约为30~40年,似与海洋存在数十年为变化周期之说相近。由此引发对人为因素导致持续增温的质疑。2009年入冬以来的严寒是否为近百年升温波动周期的终结抑或只是次级的突变因素所致,尚有待观察。但自然因素主导的周期波动规律不可逆转,不能被未经实证而被夸大了的＂人为因素＂所左右。 相似文献
18.
Projections of changes in climate are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on natural and social systems. However, current knowledge on assembling different GCMs to estimate future climate change over the Pear River basin is still limited so far. This study examined the capability of BMA and arithmetic mean (AM) method in assembling precipitation and temperature from CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the Pearl River basin. Results show that the BMA outperforms the traditional AM method. Precipitation tends to increase over the basin under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, whereas decrease under RCP8.5. The most remarkable increase of precipitation is found in the northern region under RCP2.6 scenario. The linear trend of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature increases with the growing CO2 concentration. The warming trends in four seasons are distinct. The warming rate is prominent in summer and spring than that in other season, meanwhile it is larger in western region than in other parts of the basin. The findings can provide beneficial reference to water resources and agriculture management strategies, as well as the adaptation and mitigation strategies for floods and droughts under the context of global climate change. 相似文献
19.
Glacial retreat and the thawing of permafrost due to climate warming have altered the hydrological cycle in cryospheric‐dominated watersheds. In this study, we analysed the impacts of climate change on the water budget for the upstream of the Shule River Basin on the northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that temperature and precipitation increased significantly during 1957–2010 in the study area. The hydrological cycle in the study area has intensified and accelerated under recent climate change. The average increasing rate of discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin was 7.9 × 106 m3/year during 1957–2010. As the mean annual glacier mass balance lost ?62.4 mm/year, the impact of glacier discharge on river flow has increased, especially after the 2000s. The contribution of glacier melt to discharge was approximately 187.99 × 108 m3 or 33.4% of the total discharge over the study period. The results suggested that the impact of warming overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off increase during the study period. The evapotranspiration (ET) increased during 1957–2010 with a rate of 13.4 mm/10 years. On the basis of water balance and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the Global Land Data Assimilation System data, the total water storage change showed a decreasing trend, whereas groundwater increased dramatically after 2006. As permafrost has degraded under climate warming, surface water can infiltrate deep into the ground, thus changing both the watershed storage and the mechanisms of discharge generation. Both the change in terrestrial water storage and changes in groundwater have had a strong control on surface discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin. Future trends in run‐off are forecasted based on climate scenarios. It is suggested that the impact of warming will overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off in the study area. Further studies such as this will improve understanding of water balance in cold high‐elevation regions. 相似文献