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1.
戈澍漠  郑福婉 《内陆地震》1997,11(3):193-201
强震危险区预测是当前地震预报中的重要课题之一。笔者以预警活断层、预警活断层分段研究解决断层活动的时间和空间尺度为主线,配合地震活动动态分析、地震波介质特征早期信息、近场趋势性前兆异常和危险性概率预测,确定了判别几年尺度强震危险区的指标。在“八五”地震科技课题研究过程中,圈这了范围不超过10000km^2的5个强震危险区,已成功地对1993年10月2日若羌6.6级地震、1995年5月2日乌苏5.8级  相似文献   

2.
论述了大同一阳高地震的孕育机制,认为可能有3个因素,即区域断层的长期蠕动,中小地震的频繁活动以及外围强震的“增震作用”,研究了利用强震的增,减震作用判定强震危险区的方法,初步取得了较为满意的效果。  相似文献   

3.
罗福忠  柏美祥 《内陆地震》1993,7(2):173-179
根据新疆天山活断层新活动特征、卫星影象显示的线性构造与地震活动显示的网络构造,确定出天山可能发生强震的警戒断层有:独山子——安集海活断层、清水河子与精河——阿什里活断层、卡克博河与特克斯河活断层、兴地活断层和北轮台活断层。综合分析判定出5个未来十年可能发生强震的危险区:沙湾西南强震危险区、乌鲁木齐西南新生强震危险区、新源西新生强震危险区、库尔勒东强震危险区和轮台北新生强震危险区。研究结果表明,天山地区全新世活断层新活动颇为强烈,某些活断层具有控震作用。预测今后十年新疆天山地区有发生多个6.5级以上地震的可能。  相似文献   

4.
总结1995年度的预报情况,提出了1996年度全国4个大区的地震活动性水平以及可能的危险地区。  相似文献   

5.
阎维彰  郭跃宏 《地震研究》1991,14(3):215-222
本文利用山西地区的地震地质、地质构造、地震活动性、地球物理场等特征资料,对有关特征进行了图象识别,采用综合决策方案以提高识别的稳定性。综合判定结果分析表明,在研究区内的180个对象中,得到54个D类对象,占全部识别总面积的30%,其中向31个对象,历史上已发生过6级以上强震或在强震附近,另有23个对象为新判定的6级以上强震潜在震源区。得到山西强震潜在震源的预测图。  相似文献   

6.
概述了中国大地地壳垂直形变速率梯度的分布特征,统计了1960-1993年间大陆M≥6.0级地震与高梯度区的对应关系,从构造物理的角度论证了形变速率高梯度区是未来可能的强震危险区,采用贝叶斯公式估算了主要地震危险区的发震概率。  相似文献   

7.
把环境应力增高,作为将要发生强震的前兆。根据陈培善导出的利用地震波资料直接计算环境剪应力τ_0值的公式,计算了1987─1991年全国范围内的环境剪应力值,并据此预测了1992年以后3年内可能发生6级以上地震的5个强震危险区。实际验证结果是:从1992年5月至今,中国境内共发生M≥6.0的地震7次,6次均落在预先划定的危险区内。根据进一步的研究,计算了1992─1993年全国环境应力值,结合1991年以前的资料,对未来1993年11月─1996年3年内可能发生强震的危险区进行了预测,提出了6个值得注意的强震危险区。  相似文献   

8.
易志刚 《华南地震》1995,15(4):27-34
根据我国地震活动资料,对1995年以后的几年内我国东部的地震活动形势进行了初步分析。  相似文献   

9.
龚鸿庆 《地震》1993,(2):1-9
本文提出了利用地震平均重现周期判别地震丛集和确定地震丛集等级的方法。进而研究了中国M_s≥7.0地震的丛集事件分布特征,得到丛集事件等级一频次分布式和时间分布式。在此基础上,本文对中国大陆强震丛集事件作了背景预测。结果认为:中国大陆自1988年11月起,在未来15年内,发生强震丛集事件的概率为83.3%,其最大可能的等级为D_T=Ⅲ级。  相似文献   

10.
戈澍谟 《内陆地震》1995,9(3):227-233
一年至几年时间尺度的强震危险区预测,是当前地震预测工作急需解决的重要问题之一。在活断层研究的基础上,划分出近期活动的预警活断层,再在判定为预警活断层上圈定中期强震危险区。实践证明这是一个有效的办法。  相似文献   

11.
FS方法及其在综合多项震兆中的应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
本文提出了一种模式识别方法--FS方法.该方法的特征取为某些论域上的模糊子集.先以每三个原始特征组成子分类器的特征集,“训练”这些分类器,然后对子分类器进行筛选,最后用筛选出的子分类器的“软”分类结果的加权平均作为判别函数,形成总的分类决策.将FS方法应用于综合多项震兆,并进行了一系列控制试验,还与地震学中几种常用的方法进行了对比试验.结果表明,FS方法是稳定和有效的.  相似文献   

12.
We try to give a quantitative and global discrimination function by studying m b/M S data using Fisher method that is a kind of pattern recognition methods. The reliability of the function is also analyzed. The results show that this criterion works well and has a global feature, which can be used as first-level filtering criterions in event identification. The quantitative and linear discrimination function makes it possible to identify events automatically and achieve the goal to react the events quickly and effectively.  相似文献   

13.
边银菊 《地震学报》2005,27(4):414-422
用模式识别中的Fisher方法对mb/MS判据进行研究,给出了定量的全球普适的识别方程,并进行了可靠性分析. 结果表明,该识别判据效果很好,具有全球性的特点,可作为事件识别的第一级筛选的普适的识别判据. 定量的线性判别式的给出,使这一判据对事件进行自动识别成为可能,从而达到对事件进行快速有效反应的目的.   相似文献   

14.
Introduction Earthquake magnitude is a measurement of earthquake intensity, which is one of the basic seismic parameters. The body-wave magnitude mb and surface-wave magnitude MS are based re- spectively on different wave spectrum amplitudes, therefore, the magnitude used as a criterion has its sound physical basis, which is in fact to distinguish the frequency components of seismic waves excited by explosion and earthquake. The magnitude criterion has a very clear physical meaning. Proposed …  相似文献   

15.
We try to give a quantitative and global discrimination function by studying m b/M S data using Fisher method that is a kind of pattern recognition methods. The reliability of the function is also analyzed. The results show that this criterion works well and has a global feature, which can be used as first-level filtering criterions in event identification. The quantitative and linear discrimination function makes it possible to identify events automatically and achieve the goal to react the events quickly and effectively. Contribution No.05FE3018, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administrtion.  相似文献   

16.
应用模式识别方法预测油气储集层   总被引:11,自引:1,他引:11       下载免费PDF全文
本文论述了模式识别在地震油气解释中的应用,并提出了一套实现的方法.在地震资料处理中提出了信息保持的思想和处理方法.从特殊处理后的地震记录中提取多种地震特征,这些特征主要来自地震道的自回归系数、最大熵频谱和自相关函数.利用聚类分析和判别分析方法对地震特征向量进行分类,实例表明,本文提出的地震模式识别方法能有效地划分油气储集层,即使在油层较薄或是反射变化不明显的地区也能奏效.  相似文献   

17.
Local scour may occur when a hydraulic structure is positioned in a channel with an erodible bed. Herewith investigated experimentally are the erosion and flow pattern due to a water jet passing over a channel bed at the asymptotic (final) state. The development of the scour hole, its maximum scour depth and length, are recorded and compared with available scour-depth relations. Two sets of experiments (see Table 1) were carded out. Set 1 (3 runs) was concerned with measuring the vertical instantaneous velocity distribution in the scour hole. The scour hole at the asymptotic (final) state, t=100 [h] was investigated. Set 2 (5 runs) was concerned with studying the physics of scouring. Thescour hole at about mid-state, t≈0.5 [h], was investigated; subsequently the scour-hole depth was linearly extended on the semi-log scale to 72 [h]; no velocity measurements were performed. The present data are put in context with some (popular) existing relations; recommended is a modification of some of these relations。  相似文献   

18.
The main objective of this study was to fit and recognize spatial distribution patterns of grassland insects using various neural networks, and to analyze the feasibility of neural networks for detecting spatial distribution patterns of grassland insects. BP neural network, Learning vector quantization (LVQ) neural network, linear neural network and Fisher’s linear discriminant analysis were used to fit and recognize spatial distribution patterns at different ecological scales. Various comparisons and analysis were conducted. The results showed that BP, LVQ and linear neural networks were better algorithms for recognizing spatial distribution patterns of grassland insects. BP neural network was the best algorithm to fit spatial distribution patterns. BP network may be used to recognize the spatial details of distribution patterns, and the recognition performance of BP network became better as the increase of the number of hidden layers and neurons. Performance of linear neural network for pattern recognition was similar to linear discrimination method. Linear neural network would yield better performance in finding the general trends of distribution patterns. Recognition performance of LVQ network was just between BP network and linear network. It was found that recognition performance of neural networks depended upon not only the ecological scale but also the criterion for classification. Under the uniform criterion, recognition efficiency of linear methods tended to be weak as ecological scale became to be coarser. A joint use of neural networks was suggested in order to achieve both overall and detailed understanding on spatial distribution patterns.  相似文献   

19.
A comparison has been made between the hydraulic geometry of sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers, based on data from alluvial rivers around the world. The results indicate a signi?cant difference in hydraulic geometry among sand‐ and gravel‐bed rivers with different channel patterns. On this basis, some diagrams for discrimination of meandering and braided channel patterns have been established. The relationships between channel width and water discharge, between channel depth and water discharge, between width–depth ratio and water discharge and between channel slope and water discharge can all be used for channel pattern discrimination. The relationship between channel width and channel depth can also be used for channel pattern discrimination. However, the accuracy of these relationships for channel pattern discrimination varies, and the depth–discharge relationship is a better discriminator of pattern type than the classic slope–discharge function. The cause for this difference has been explained qualitatively. To predict the development of channel patterns under different natural conditions, the pattern discriminator should be searched on the basis of independent or at least semi‐independent variables. The relationship between stream power and bed material grain size can be used to discriminate channel patterns, which shows a better result than the discriminator using the slope–discharge relationship. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
《国际泥沙研究》2020,35(4):355-364
The scour and deposition pattern around an abutment under constant discharge condition is calculated using a three dimensional (3D) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model. The Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) equations are solved in three dimensions using a CFD model. The Level Set Method (LSM) is used for calculation of both free surface and bed topography. The two-equation turbulence model (k-ε and k-ω) is used to calculate the eddy viscosity in the RANS equations. The pressure term in the RANS equations on a staggered grid is modeled using the Chorin's projection method. The 5th order Weighted Essentially Non-Oscillatory (WENO) scheme discretizes the convective term of the RANS equations. The Kovacs and Parker and Dey formulations are used for the reduction in bed shear stress on the sloping bed. The model also used the sandslide algorithm which limits bed shear stress reduction during the erosion process. The numerical model solution is validated against experimental results collected at the Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy. Further, the numerical model is tested for performance by varying the grid sizes and key parameters like the space and time discretization schemes. The effect of varying bed porosity has been evaluated. Overall, the free surface is well represented in a realistic manner and bed topography is well predicted using the Level Set Method (LSM).  相似文献   

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