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本文收集了1967—2007年全球大陆(不包括中国大陆)29次7.0~7.9级浅源大地震的余震资料。根据震源机制解结果把这29次地震序列分为走滑型和非走滑型, 其中17次是走滑型, 12次是非走滑型, 并分别研究了走滑型和非走滑型地震序列强余震震级分布特征和空间分布特征。研究结果表明, 强余震与主震震级差服从指数分布, 统计得到了走滑型地震序列B值为0.58, 非走滑型地震序列B值为1.07。走滑型地震序列强余震与主震距离的优势分布范围是10~45 km, 而非走滑型地震序列强余震与主震的距离优势分布为20~59 km, 并且强余震与主震震中距服从正态分布。 相似文献
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应用地震动衰减关系计算了1966年邢台地震以来中国大陆及近海发生的21次MSge;7地震序列的主震和强余震产生的有效峰值加速度,并对计算结果进行了比较分析, 发现76.2%地震序列的强余震产生的有效峰值加速度超过主震,其中50%多的强余震产生的有效峰值加速度在大范围内大幅度地超过主震. 本研究表明在强余震震中区附近,强余震往往会造成比主震更严重的破坏, 因此在地震危险性分析中要充分考虑强余震的影响场,才能为抗震设防提供科学、安全、可靠的依据. 相似文献
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《华北地震科学》2015,(4)
依据1965年以来云南地区记录相对完整的108次5.0级以上地震序列资料,研究云南中强地震余震序列统计特征,探讨序列类型、余震震级、余震分布范围及间隔时间等与主震震级之间的关系。云南地区孤立型、主余型、多震型地震序列分别约占3.7%、63.0%及33.3%。5.0级以上主余型地震序列半年内发生的最大余震震级与主震震级总体呈正相关,但主震震级较低时相对离散。云南地区最大余震与主震距离空间分布具有分级的特点:当5.0≤主震震级M6.5时,最大余震优势分布范围是0~20km;当主震震级M≥6.5时,最大余震优势分布范围是5~40km。在云南地区的主余型地震序列中有68%的最大余震发生在主震后10d内,84%发生在震后30d内,97%发生在震后90d内。多震型序列中第一大震与第二大震发生的时间间隔和震中距的分布规律与主余型地震序列基本一致。 相似文献
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本文是《强余震的时间分布特征及其理论解释》(地球物理学报,1979年1期)的继续。文中分析了我国11个强震的余震序列,结果表明,强余震的空间分布有以下特点: 1.强余震的平面分布。强余震主要分布在断层的两端附近及主震震中附近。 2.强余震的空间迁移具有以下特征: (1)强余震的迁移范围与主震破裂长度相当,且随着时间的推移,迁移的范围越来越大;(2)其总的迁移范围及迁移方向与主震破裂方式有关。对单侧破裂的较大主震,强余震相对其震中呈单侧迁移;对双侧破裂的主震,其强余震相对其主震震中会呈现松弛振荡式迁移;对于双震型地震,强余震往往对第一个主震表现为单侧迁移,对于第二个主震表现为两头跳现象。 3.强余震的垂向分布:位于主破裂的断层面内,且在其前缘上。 本文从断裂力学和流变学角度,对上述观测事实进行了初步理论解释。 相似文献
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依据1970年以来记录相对完整的294次50级以上地震序列资料,研究中国大陆中强地震余震序列统计特征,探讨序列类型、最大余震震级、强余震活动持续时间等与主震震级及主震断层性质之间的关系.中国大陆孤立型、主余型及多震型地震余震序列分别约占23%、59%及18%.其中走滑型、具有倾滑分量的走滑型、具有走滑分量的倾滑型及逆冲型分别占48%、24%、17%及11%. 余震序列1年内最大余震震级与主震震级正相关,但主震震级较低时相对离散,孤立型序列离散程度较高,主余型及多震型序列线性相关性较好.绝大多数序列最大余震均发生在震后200天内,少数具有晚期强余震的序列主要属主余型序列,孤立型及多震型序列通常没有晚期强余震发生.68%的序列1年内最大余震发生在震后10天内,77%发生在震后30天之内,95%发生在震后120天之内.序列最大余震发生时间及5、6级强余震活动持续时间与序列类型及主震震级大小有关,多震型序列最大余震发生最快,孤立型次之、主余型最长.若仅就主余型序列而言,当主震震级较高时最大余震与主震间时间间隔相对较短,主震震级较低时最大余震与主震间时间间隔相对较长. 相似文献
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对大地震发生后强余震的震源机制,基于主要地震断层上小余震的时空分布进行了详细研究.近期在中国境内发生的强烈板内地震,如1976年唐山、1975年海城、1976年盐源——宁蒗等地震曾被中国地震台网很好记录.主震刚发生后的小余震以及强余震前后的小余震的震源用 S——P 时间的收敛法进行测定.强余震的断层是依靠这些小余震的震中分布来描绘的.可以看出有三种情况.第一,在主震断层区内,一次强余震发生在较小余震的比较不密集的部位;第二,一次强余震沿断层发生并与主震断层是共轭的;第三,一次强余震在沿平行并离开主震断层的断层上发生.可以认为,地质条件控制着强余震的发生.作为强余震的可能前兆,则有唐山地震的一次强余震,震级为7.1.其发生前,出现一些前震以及在接近主震断层方向上的某些地震台所记录的初动方向有变化.可以设想,这里的应力场在强余震发生前是有所变化的. 相似文献
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预防强震后可能发生的余震对于保护灾区安全具有重要意义。为了对余震进行一定误差水平的快速判定,对主震与余震之间的关系进行分析。选取1970年1月1日—2009年9月30日全球范围5—10级地震进行预处理,采用基于最小二乘法的线性回归方法,对主震震级与最大余震震级关联关系、主震视应力与最大余震震级关联关系进行分析,并进行结果可视化。结果表明,主震与最大余震的震级存在一定线性关系,可为主震后在一定范围内对最大余震的快速判定提供一定参考。 相似文献
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依据1970年以来记录相对完备的MSge;5.0地震序列资料,统计研究了中国大陆余震分布尺度与序列最大地震震级M0及最大地震破裂形式之间的关系. 在95%置信概率下,考虑主震破裂形式, 分序列类型给出了余震分布尺度与M0之间的统计关系. 定性而言,余震分布尺度的对数lgR与M0正相关, 但数据分布较为离散. 分类型来看, 孤立型序列余震分布尺度与M0之间统计相关程度低, 余震分布尺度介于5~60 km之间; 主余型序列lgR与M0正相关; 多震型序列当M0le;6.2时lgR与M0之间相关性不显著,余震分布尺度介于5~70 km之间, 当M0ge;6.3时lgR与M0线性相关. 统计结果还表明, 走滑近走滑及斜滑型主震所导致序列类型比例之间没有显著差异,而倾滑近倾滑型主震(主要为逆断型破裂)所导致的主余型序列所占比例较高, 孤立型及多震型序列所占比例则相对较低. 对比研究显示, 当M0较高时,余震分布尺度主要取决于主震大小而与主震破裂形式关系不明显. 相似文献
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本文在分析新疆人口分布和强地震地理分布特点的基础上,得出人口在地震活动带上相对集中的结论。并根据新疆构造地貌特点和气候水文条件,对这一现象的产生作了初步探讨。 相似文献
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A consistent approach to the frequency analysis of hydrologic data in arid and semiarid regions, i.e. the data series containing several zero values (e.g. monthly precipitation in dry seasons, annual peak flow discharges, etc.), requires using discontinuous probability distribution functions. Such an approach has received relatively limited attention. Along the lines of physically based models, the extensions of the Muskingum‐based models to three parameter forms are considered. Using 44 peak flow series from the USGS data bank, the fitting ability of four three‐parameter models was investigated: (1) the Dirac delta combined with Gamma distribution; (2) the Dirac delta combined with two‐parameter generalized Pareto distribution; (3) the Dirac delta combined with two‐parameter Weibull (DWe) distribution; (4) the kinematic diffusion with one additional parameter that controls the probability of the zero event (KD3). The goodness of fit of the models was assessed and compared both by evaluation of discrepancies between the results of both estimation methods (i.e. the method of moments (MOM) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM)) and using the log of likelihood function as a criterion. In most cases, the DWe distribution with MLM‐estimated parameters showed the best fit of all the three‐parameter models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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M. A. J. van Montfort A. Otten 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(1):69-76
In the peak over threshold model resulting in the Extreme-value distribution, type I, (EV1) the firste of the distribution function is based on the Poisson number of exceedances, and the seconde arises from the Exponentially distributed magnitudes.This paper, on the one hand, generalises the Poisson model to the (positive and negative) Binomial distribution, and, on the other hand, the Exponential distribution is generalised to the Generalised Pareto distribution. Lack of fit with respect to the Poisson and Exponential distribution is measured by statistics derived from those which would be locally most powerful if the estimates of the location and scale parameter were equal to the true parameter values. Ways of combining both statistics are discussed. 相似文献
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《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract A new theoretically-based distribution in frequency analysis is proposed. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution includes the generalized Pareto distribution, which is used to model the exceedences over threshold; log-logistic distribution, which is also advocated in flood frequency analysis; and Weibull distribution, which is a part of the generalized extreme value distribution used to model annual maxima as special cases. The extended Burr distribution is flexible to approximate extreme value distribution. Note that both the generalized Pareto and generalized extreme value distributions are limiting results in modelling the exceedences over threshold and block extremes, respectively. From a modelling perspective, generalization might be necessary in order to obtain a better fit. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is therefore a meaningful candidate distribution in the frequency analysis. Maximum likelihood estimation for this distribution is investigated in the paper. The use of the extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is demonstrated using data from China. 相似文献
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A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level. 相似文献
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On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
V. Choulakian N. El-Jabi J. Moussi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1990,4(3):217-226
A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level. 相似文献
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We have fitted field measurements of fracture spacings (from the vicinity of Lake Strom Thurmond, Georgia, U.S.A.) to the Weibull, Schuhmann and fractal distributions. The fracture spacings follow a fractal and Weibull distribution which implies that they were formed as a result of a repetitive fragmentation process. The limited variation of the fracture density with orientation in the study area suggests that the stress distribution generating these fractures may be uniform. 相似文献
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G. Mateu-Figueras V. Pawlowsky-Glahn C. Barceló-Vidal 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(3):205-214
There is a dearth of suitable models with which to adequately model compositional data sets, especially those which exhibit skewness after additive logratio-transformation. In order to address this deficit we propose the additive logistic skew-normal distribution, an extension to the additive logistic normal model on the simplex derived from the skew-normal distribution in real space. The purpose of this paper is to outline the potential of this distribution in the modelling of compositional data. We present its most important properties and use an example to exhibit the potential of this distribution. 相似文献
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VELOCITY FIELD AND RESISTANCE OF FLOW OVER ROUGH SURFACES WITH LARGE AND SMALL RELATIVE SUBMERGENCE 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Andreas DITTRICH Institut fuer Wasserbau und Kulturtechnik Universitet Karlsruhe Kaiserstr. Karlsruhe Germany Katinka KOLL Institut fuer Wasserbau und Kulturtechnik Universitet Karlsruhe Kaiserstr. Karlsruhe Germany 《国际泥沙研究》1997,(3)
LINTRODUCTIONPreciseknowledgeofthevelocityfieldandthecorrespondingresistanceofflowoverrollghsurfacesareofgreatimportanceformanypracticalproblemssuchastheestimationofthestabilitVofbedmaterialinerosiveriversortheremovalofaccumulatedfinesedimentfromthechannelandthelooseningofgravelbedmaterialbycontrolledreleaseofreservoirwater.Thelatterprocedure,calledflushingflows,isfrequentlyspecifiedtorestoreortomaintainaquatichabitat(WILCOCKetal.,1996).Dependingonwaterdepthhandroughnessheightk.(=equiv… 相似文献