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1.
C.-C. P. Tsai 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,149(2):265-297
—A new, yet simple, method using the asperity model to estimate ground motion in the near-source regime for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses is proposed in this study. This near-source model differs from conventional empirical attenuation equations. It correlates peak ground motions with the local contributing source in terms of the static stress drop released non-uniformly on the causative fault plane rather than with the whole seismic source in terms of magnitude. Here the model is simplified such that ground motions at a rock or firm soil site near extended vertical strike-slip faults are dominated by direct shear waves. The proposed model is tested by comparing its predictions with strong ground motion observations from the 1979 Imperial Valley and the 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. The results have revealed that ground motions in the near-source region can be adequately predicted using the asperity model with appropriate calibration factors. The directivity effect of ground motion in the near-source region is negligible for high-frequency accelerations. The cut-off frequency (?max?) at a site is an important parameter in the near-source region. Higher values of ?max yield higher estimates of peak ground accelerations. For high-frequency structures, ?max should be carefully estimated. In the near- source region both non-uniform and uniform source models can produce non-stationary high-frequency ground motions. Peak motions may not be caused by the nearest sections of the fault (even if the uniform source model is considered). 相似文献
2.
This paper presents an integrated approach for evaluating seismic hazard and establishing ground motion at a site. In this approach, we combine the advantage of probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses and generate synthetic ground motion by considering the characteristics of seismic source, path attenuation, and local soil condition. Furthermore, uncertainties in seismic and soil parameters are taken into account. The proposed approach can be used to establish site-specific ground motion for engineering applications. 相似文献
3.
Christophe Martin Gabriele Ameri David Baumont David Carbon Gloria Senfaute Jean-Michel Thiry Ezio Faccioli Jean Savy 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2477-2511
The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods. 相似文献
4.
O. V. Pavlenko 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2013,170(4):571-595
To estimate the parameters of ground motion in future strong earthquakes, characteristics of radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the Kamchatka region were studied. Regional parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves were estimated by comparing simulations of earthquake records with data recorded by stations of the Kamchatka Strong Motion Network. Acceleration time histories of strong earthquakes (M w = 6.8–7.5, depths 45–55 km) that occurred near the eastern coast of Kamchatka in 1992–1993 were simulated at rock and soil stations located at epicentral distances of 67–195 km. In these calculations, the source spectra and the estimates of frequency-dependent attenuation and geometrical spreading obtained earlier for Kamchatka were used. The local seismic-wave amplification was estimated based on shallow geophysical site investigations and deep crustal seismic explorations, and parameters defining the shapes of the waveforms, the duration, etc. were selected, showing the best-fit to the observations. The estimated parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves describe all the studied earthquakes well. Based on the waveforms of the acceleration time histories, models of slip distribution over the fault planes were constructed for the studied earthquakes. Station PET can be considered as a reference rock station having the minimum site effects. The intensity of ground motion at the other studied stations was higher than at PET due to the soil response or other effects, primarily topographic ones. At soil stations INS, AER, and DCH the parameters of soil profiles (homogeneous pyroclastic deposits) were estimated, and nonlinear models of their behavior in the strong motion were constructed. The obtained parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves and models of soil behavior can be used for forecasting ground motion in future strong earthquakes in Kamchatka. 相似文献
5.
Ashraf Adly Laurentiu Danciu Donat Fäh Valerio Poggi Awad Omran Awad Hassoup 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(12):5697-5733
A new seismic hazard model for Cairo, the capital city of Egypt is developed herein based on comprehensive consideration of uncertainties in various components of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The proposed seismic hazard model is developed from an updated catalogue of historical and instrumental seismicity, geodetic strain rates derived from GPS-based velocity-field of the crust, and the geologic slip rates of active faults. The seismic source model consists of area sources and active faults characterised to forecast the seismic productivity in the region. Ground motion prediction models are selected to describe the expected ground motion at the sites of interest. The model accounts for inherent epistemic uncertainties of statistical earthquake recurrence; maximum magnitude; ground motion prediction models, and their propagation toward the obtained results. The proposed model is applied to a site-specific hazard analysis for Kottamiya, Rehab City and Zahraa-Madinat-Nasr (hereinafter referred to as Zahraa) to the East of Cairo (Egypt). The site-specific analysis accounts for the site response, through the parameterization of the sites in terms of average 30-m shear-wave velocity (Vs30). The present seismic hazard model can be considered as a reference model for earthquake risk mitigation and proper resilience planning. 相似文献
6.
7.
Introduction The estimation of damage probability distribution among different damage states of rein-forced concrete buildings is a key component of earthquake loss estimation for modern city or a group of cities. With the development of city, the reinforced concrete buildings are major compo-nent parts of modern cities. Vulnerability estimates for these kinds of buildings are of importance to those responsible for civil protection, relief, and emergency services to enable adequate contin-genc… 相似文献
8.
Mine Betül Demircioğlu Karin Şeşetyan Tamer Y. Duman Tolga Çan Senem Tekin Semih Ergintav 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3399-3438
Over the years, several local and regional seismic hazard studies have been conducted for the estimation of the seismic hazard in Turkey using different statistical processing tools for instrumental and historical earthquake data and modeling the geologic and tectonic characteristics of the region. Recently developed techniques, increased knowledge and improved databases brought the necessity to review the national active fault database and the compiled earthquake catalogue for the development of a national earthquake hazard map. A national earthquake strategy and action plan were conceived and accordingly with the collaboration of the several institutions and expert researchers, the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project (UDAP-Ç-13-06) was initiated, and finalized at the end of 2014. The scope of the project was confined to the revision of current national seismic hazard map, using the state of the art technologies and knowledge of the active fault, earthquake database, and ground motion prediction equations. The following two seismic source zonation models are developed for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis: (1) Area source model, (2) Fault and spatial smoothing seismic source model (FSBCK). In this study, we focus on the development and the characterization of the Fault Source model, the background spatially smoothed seismicity model and intrinsic uncertainty on the earthquake occurrence-rates-estimation. Finally, PSHA results obtained from the fault and spatial smoothed seismic source model are presented for 43, 72, 475 and 2475 years return periods (corresponding to 69, 50, 10, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) for PGA and 5% damped spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s. 相似文献
9.
DISCUSSION ON THE SPECTRA SHAPE OF SEISMIC MARGIN EARTHQUAKE OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN CHINA 
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下载免费PDF全文 Fukushima nuclear accident caused widespread concern of earthquake initiated severe accident. Under this background, China nuclear utilities carried out research and application of seismic margin assessment(SMA)approach to evaluate the seismic margin of the existing nuclear power plants(NPP)by different spectra shape of seismic margin earthquake(SME). By reviewing the method used to determine SME of operational NPP in central and eastern United States(CEUS), this paper analyzed the seismic hazard characteristic of China NPP sites, contrasted the design basis ground motion between NPP in CEUS and China, and suggested giving priority to evaluating the seismic margin of operational NPP that adopted the improved second generation technology for the urgency and importance of assessment on the actual seismic capacity of NPP. Comparing RG1.60 spectrum to normalized site-specific SL-2 level acceleration spectra, we found that some normalized spectra overtook the RG1.60's in high frequency range, so it is not always adequate to scale RG1.60 spectrum to evaluate the seismic margin for sites of the improved second generation NPP. We selected a sample site whose site-specific SL-2 level ground motion is close to the standard design of improved second generation NPP(0.2g scaled RG1.60 spectrum)to determine the seismic margin earthquake by probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method of the sample site. Compared to the given PGA(0.3g)scaled scenario earthquake ground motions and the uniform hazard response spectrum(UHRS), whose PGA is 0.3g to PGA(0.3g)scaled standard spectra(median NUREG/CR0098 spectrum and RG1.60 spectrum), the results demonstrated that uniform hazard response spectrum and scaled scenario earthquake ground motions are both significantly higher than the PGA scaled median NUREG/CR0098 spectrum, and all the three spectra are enveloped by PGA scaled RG1.60 spectrum. Then, this paper suggests adopting the uniform hazard response spectrum or scenario earthquake ground motions to evaluate the seismic margin of improved second generation NPP beyond site SL-2 ground motion; and to evaluate the seismic margin of improved second generation NPP beyond standard design, we recommend to use PGA scaled RG1.60 spectrum. 相似文献
10.
Karin Sesetyan Mine B. Demircioglu Tamer Y. Duman Tolga Çan Senem Tekin Tuba Eroğlu Azak Özge Zülfikar Fercan 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3367-3397
The seismic zoning map of Turkey that is used in connection with the national seismic design code (versions issued both in 1997 and 2007) is based on a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted more than 20 years ago (Gülkan et al. in En son verilere göre haz?rlanan Türkiye deprem bölgeleri haritas?, Report No: METU/EERC 93-1, 1993). In line with the efforts for the update of the seismic design code, the need aroused for an updated seismic hazard map, incorporating recent data and state-of-the-art methodologies and providing ground motion parameters required for the construction of the design spectra stipulated by the new Turkish Earthquake Design Code. Supported by AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey), a project has been conducted for the country scale assessment of the seismic hazard by probabilistic methods. The present paper describes the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted in connection with this project, incorporating in an area source model, all recently compiled data on seismicity and active faulting, and using a set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations, for both active shallow crustal and subduction regimes, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region. The area sources delineated in the model are fully parameterized in terms of maximum magnitude, depth distribution, predominant strike and dip angles and mechanism of possible ruptures. Resulting ground motion distributions are quantified and presented for PGA and 5 % damped spectral accelerations at T = 0.2 and 1.0 s, associated with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The full set of seismic hazard curves was also made available for the hazard computation sites. The second part of the study, which is based on a fault source and smoothed seismicity model is covered in Demircioglu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng, (2016). 相似文献
11.
Kamal Abdel-Rahman El-Sayed 《地震研究》2008,31(2):160-170
根据埃及Gasco天然气公司工程场地的现场调查资料、地震活动性和地震灾害评估结果,对该场地进行了评估.通过浅源地震波折射勘探,对8个地震剖面上的土壤和岩石的弹性动态常数进行了分析.场地地面模型包括两层,分析表明它们具有从中值到高值的弹性动态常数,说明场地有良好的土壤条件和基岩岩性.同时,我们搜集和分析了研究区周围150 km半径范围内的历史和仪器记录地震,从构造环境、地震活动性、地质构造和主要地震的断层面解等方面进行了研究,认为场地受4个震源区的影响:苏伊士中部海湾、开罗-苏伊士地区、开罗西南和Beni-Suef地区.我们采用地震活动性统计方法并结合专家判定,确定了这些震源区内最大地震的矩震级(MW).另外,依据场地峰值加速度(PGA)和反应谱,用随机方法对场地进行了地震灾害评估.4个震源区中,Beni-Suef地区距离工程场地最近,其PGA最大值为9.34cm/s2,但这个值很小,表明地震不会对工程场地产生破坏性影响.最后,我们还模拟了阻尼为1%、3%和5%时的伪加速度场地反应谱. 相似文献
12.
E. Faccioli 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2013,11(1):5-33
SH evaluation in Po Plain region is revisited with a view to: ( $a)$ updating available seismic source and ground motion attenuation models with recent data and testing the sensitivity of the results, ( $b)$ exploiting available non-stationary models to check their predictive performance at particular sites and, ( $c)$ handling the ground motion hazard generated by composite fault systems. Update of area source models and GMPEs does not strongly affect SH evaluated at representative sites, while usefulness of predictions derived from non-stationary models needs to be assessed on a site-by-site basis. A hybrid (deterministic-probabilistic) approach seems to be a promising tool for assessing site-specific hazard contributed by composite sources. 相似文献
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14.
This research focuses on the evaluation of soil conditions for seismic stations in southern and eastern Romania, their influence on stochastic finite-fault simulations, and the impact of using them on the seismic hazard assessment. First, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) are evaluated using ground motions recorded in 32 seismic stations during small magnitude (M W ≤ 6.0) Vrancea seismic events. Most of the seismic stations situated in the southern part of Romania exhibit multiple HVSR peaks over a broad period range. However, only the seismic stations in the eastern-most part of Romania have clear short-period predominant periods. Subsequently, stochastic finite-fault simulations are performed in order to evaluate the influence of the soil conditions on the ground motion amplitudes. The analyses show that the earthquake magnitude has a larger influence on the computed ground motion amplitudes for the short- and medium-period range, while the longer-period spectral ordinates tend to be influenced more by the soil conditions. Next, the impact of the previously evaluated soil conditions on the seismic hazard results for Romania is also investigated. The results reveal a significant impact of the soil conditions on the seismic hazard levels, especially for the sites characterized by long-period amplifications (sites situated mostly in southern Romania), and a less significant influence in the case of sites which have clear short predominant periods. 相似文献
15.
—?The problem of accounting for local soil effect on earthquake ground motion is especially urgent when assessing seismic hazard – recent needs of earthquake engineering require local site effects to be included into hazard maps. However, most recent works do not consider the variety of soil conditions or are performed for generalized site categories, such as “hard rock,”“soft soil” or “alluvium.” A technique of seismic hazard calculations on the basis of the Fourier Amplitude Spectra recently developed by the authors allows us to create hazard maps involving the influence of local soil conditions using soil/bedrock spectral ratios. Probabilistic microzoning maps may be constructed showing macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, response and design spectra for various return periods (probability of exceedance), that allow optimization of engineering decisions. An application of this approach is presented which focused on the probabilistic microzoning of the Tashkent City. 相似文献
16.
In the present study, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was conducted for Cyprus based on several new results: a new
comprehensive earthquake catalog, seismic source models based on new research, and new attenuation relationships. Peak ground
acceleration distributions obtained for a return period of 475 years for rock conditions indicate high hazard along the southern
coastline of Cyprus, where the expected ground motion is between 0.3 and 0.4 g. The rest of the island is characterized by
values representing less severe shaking. Results of this study strongly indicate the inadequacy of the Turkish Earthquake
Code that is being used in the northern part of the island and the Eurocode 8 that is in effect in the southern part of the
island to approximate the uniform hazard spectra developed for the high hazard and moderate hazard regions of the island. 相似文献
17.
Domenico Giardini Laurentiu Danciu Mustafa Erdik Karin Şeşetyan Mine B. Demircioğlu Tümsa Sinan Akkar Levent Gülen Mehdi Zare 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(8):3567-3570
The collaborative project Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME, 2010–2015) brought together scientists and engineers from the leading research institutions in the region and delivered state-of-the-art seismic hazard assessment covering Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey. Their efforts have been materialized in the first homogenized seismic hazard model comprising earthquake catalogues, mapped active faults, strong motions databank, ground motion models and the estimated ground motion values for various intensity measure types and relevant return periods (e.g. 475–5000 years). The reference seismic hazard map of the Middle East, depicts the mean values of peak ground acceleration with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a mean return period of 475 years. A full resolution poster is provided with this contribution. 相似文献
18.
A. Laurendeau P.-Y. Bard F. Hollender V. Perron L. Foundotos O.-J. Ktenidou B. Hernandez 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(6):2253-2284
A key component in seismic hazard assessment is the estimation of ground motion for hard rock sites, either for applications to installations built on this site category, or as an input motion for site response computation. Empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are the traditional basis for estimating ground motion while VS30 is the basis to account for site conditions. As current GMPEs are poorly constrained for VS30 larger than 1000 m/s, the presently used approach for estimating hazard on hard rock sites consists of “host-to-target” adjustment techniques based on VS30 and κ0 values. The present study investigates alternative methods on the basis of a KiK-net dataset corresponding to stiff and rocky sites with 500 < VS30 < 1350 m/s. The existence of sensor pairs (one at the surface and one in depth) and the availability of P- and S-wave velocity profiles allow deriving two “virtual” datasets associated to outcropping hard rock sites with VS in the range [1000, 3000] m/s with two independent corrections: 1/down-hole recordings modified from within motion to outcropping motion with a depth correction factor, 2/surface recordings deconvolved from their specific site response derived through 1D simulation. GMPEs with simple functional forms are then developed, including a VS30 site term. They lead to consistent and robust hard-rock motion estimates, which prove to be significantly lower than host-to-target adjustment predictions. The difference can reach a factor up to 3–4 beyond 5 Hz for very hard-rock, but decreases for decreasing frequency until vanishing below 2 Hz. 相似文献
19.
Gholamreza Abdollahzadeh Mohammad Sazjini Mohsen Shahaky Fatemeh Zahedi Tajrishi Leila Khanmohammadi 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):357-369
Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region. 相似文献
20.
Earthquakes damage engineering structures near, relatively to the rupture's size, to the source. In this region, the fault's dynamics affect ground motion propagation differently from site to site, resulting in systematic spatial variability known as directivity. Although a number of researches recommend that records with directivity‐related velocity pulses should be explicitly taken into account when defining design seismic action on structures, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), in its standard version, seems inadequate for the scope. In the study, it is critically reviewed why, from the structural engineering point of view, hazard assessment should account for near‐source effects (i.e., pulse‐like ground motions), and how this can be carried out adjusting PSHA analytically via introduction of specific terms and empirically calibrated models. Disaggregation analysis and design scenarios for near‐source PSHA are also formulated. The analytical procedures are then applied to develop examples of hazard estimates for sites close to strike–slip or dip–slip faults and to address differences with respect to the ordinary case, that is, when pulse‐like effects are not explicitly accounted for. Significant increase of hazard for selected spectral ordinates is found in all investigated cases; increments depend on the fault‐site configuration. Moreover, to address design scenarios for seismic actions on structures, disaggregation results are also discussed, along with limitations of current design spectra to highlight the pulse‐like effects of structural interest. Finally, an attempt to overcome these, by means of disaggregation‐based scenarios specific for the pulse occurrence case, is presented. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献