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1.
基于水平衡模型的呼伦湖湖泊水量变化   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
针对北方寒旱区呼伦湖水位下降、水面萎缩的现象,根据气候特征,利用月水量平衡模型探究湖泊水文过程并揭示其变化规律.在此基础上,利用不同气候条件下各水平衡项对于湖泊水位的影响程度确定水位升降的直接原因.基于1963-1980年间水位的实测数据,根据水量平衡原理及其他辅助计算判断出湖泊与周边区域存在着地下水的交换,且具有一定的规律性,即历年11月至次年3月期间的累积降雪融化渗入土壤中形成浅层径流补给湖泊,而7、8月份湖泊补给周边草原.基于以上规律,根据周边坡面汇流、地下水与湖泊交换量的年内变化特征,利用水平衡方程式推算湖泊1981-2008年逐月水位变化,并与其他研究成果比较,吻合度较高.不同气候条件下,径流量对于湖泊水位的影响程度最为突出,是水位变化的主控因子.  相似文献   

2.
The northern mid‐high latitudes form a region that is sensitive to climate change, and many areas already have seen – or are projected to see – marked changes in hydroclimatic drivers on catchment hydrological function. In this paper, we use tracer‐aided conceptual runoff models to investigate such impacts in a mesoscale (749 km2) catchment in northern Scotland. The catchment encompasses both sub‐arctic montane sub‐catchments with high precipitation and significant snow influence and drier, warmer lowland sub‐catchments. We used downscaled HadCM3 General Circulation Model outputs through the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator to project the future climate. This was based on synthetic precipitation and temperature time series generated from three climate change scenarios under low, medium and high greenhouse gas emissions. Within an uncertainty framework, we examined the impact of climate change at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales and projected impacts on flow regimes in upland and lowland sub‐catchments using hydrological models with appropriate process conceptualization for each landscape unit. The results reveal landscape‐specific sensitivity to climate change. In the uplands, higher temperatures result in diminishing snow influence which increases winter flows, with a concomitant decline in spring flows as melt reduces. In the lowlands, increases in air temperatures and re‐distribution of precipitation towards autumn and winter lead to strongly reduced summer flows despite increasing annual precipitation. The integration at the catchment outlet moderates these seasonal extremes expected in the headwaters. This highlights the intimate connection between hydrological dynamics and catchment characteristics which reflect landscape evolution. It also indicates that spatial variability of changes in climatic forcing combined with differential landscape sensitivity in large heterogeneous catchments can lead to higher resilience of the integrated runoff response. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Abstract

The long term hydrological response of a medium-sized mountainous catchment to climate changes has been examined, The climate changes were represented by a set of hypothetical scenarios of temperature increases coupled with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes. Snow accumulation and ablation, plus runoff from the study catchment (the Mesochora catchment in central Greece) were simulated under present (historical) and altered climate conditions using the US National Weather Service snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models. The results of this research obtained through alternative scenarios suggest strongly that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause major decreases in winter snow accumulation and hence increases in winter runoff, as well as decreases in spring and summer runoff. The simulated changes in annual runoff were minor compared with the changes in the monthly distribution of runoff. Attendant changes in the monthly distribution of soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration would also occur. Such hydrological results would have significant implications on future water resources design and management.  相似文献   

4.
Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment‐scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939–2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data‐sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley–Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy‐budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer‐term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Abstract

The hydrological regime of a mountainous catchment, in this instance the Mesochora catchment in Central Greece, was simulated for altered climates resulting when using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model for carbon dioxide doubling. The catchment snow water equivalent was predicted on the basis of the snow accumulation and ablation model of the US National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS), while the catchment runoff, as well as actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture storages, were simulated through application of the soil moisture accounting model of NWSRFS. Two scenarios of monthly climate change were drawn from the GISS model, one associated with temperature and precipitation changes, while the other referred to temperature changes alone. A third hypothetical scenario with temperature and precipitation changes similar to those corresponding to the mean monthly GISS scenarios was used to test the sensitivity of the monthly climate change of the hypothetical case on catchment hydrology. All three scenarios projected decreases in average snow accumulations and in spring and summer runoff and soil moisture, as well as increases in winter runoff and soil moisture storage and spring evapotranspiration.  相似文献   

6.
The impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation was studied for rainfed, snowfed and glacierfed basins located in the western Himalayan region. Hydrological processes were simulated under current climatic conditions using a conceptual hydrological model, which accounts for the rainfall–runoff, evaporation losses, snow and glacier melt. After simulations of daily observed streamflow (R2=0.90) for 6 years, the model was used to study the impact of warmer climate on melt and evaporation. Based on the future projected climatic scenarios in the study region, three temperature scenarios (T+1, T+2 and T+3 °C) were adopted for quantifying the effect of warmer climate. The comparison of the effect of warmer climate on different types of basins indicated that the increase in evaporation was the maximum for snowfed basins. For a T+2 °C scenario, the annual evaporation for the rainfed basins increased by about 12%, whereas for the snowfed basins it increased by about 24%. The high increase of the evaporation losses would reduce the runoff. It was found that under a warmer climate, melt was reduced from snowfed basins, but increased from glacierfed basins. For a T+2 °C scenario, annual melt was reduced by about 18% for the studied snowfed basin, while it increased by about 33% for the glacierfed basin. Thus, impact of warmer climate on the melt from the snowfed and glacierfed basins was opposite to each other. The study suggests that out of three types of basins, snowfed basins are more sensitive in terms of reduction in water availability due to a compound effect of increase in evaporation and decrease in melt. For a complex type of basin, the decrease in melt from seasonal snow may be counterbalanced by increase in melt from glaciers. However, on long-term basis, when the areal extent of glaciers will decrease due to higher melt rate, the water availability from the complex basins will be reduced.  相似文献   

7.
Changes in climate and land use can significantly influence the hydrological cycle and hence affect water resources. Understanding the impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow can facilitate development of sustainable water resources strategies. This study investigates the flow variation of the Zamu River, an inland river in the arid area of northwest China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool distributed hydrological model. Three different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios were considered on the basis of measured climate data and land‐use cover, and then these data were input into the hydrological model. Based on the sensitivity analysis, model calibration and verification, the hydrological response to different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios was simulated. The results indicate that the runoff varied with different land‐use type, and the runoff of the mountain reaches of the catchment increased when grassland area increased and forestland decreased. The simulated runoff increased with increased precipitation, but the mean temperature increase decreased the runoff under the same precipitation condition. Application of grey correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature play a critical role in the runoff of the Zamu River basin. Sensitivity analysis of runoff to precipitation and temperature by considering the 1990s land use and climate conditions was also undertaken. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
梁新歌  王涵  赵爽  宋春桥 《湖泊科学》2023,35(6):2111-2122
在全球气候变暖和极端气候事件增加的背景下,流域水文循环过程受到的影响越来越强烈,导致湖泊水位变化表现出复杂的时空特征。而泛北极地区是地球上湖泊数量与面积分布最为集中的区域之一,该地区湖泊对气候变化响应非常敏感。因此,了解这些湖泊近期水文变化特征十分必要。本研究共搜集了36个泛北极大型湖泊(>500 km2)基于遥感或站点观测的近20年水位数据,分析其时空变化特征。本文使用线性回归模型来估算湖泊水位的变化趋势,进而利用皮尔逊相关分析了其主要水文影响变量和大气环流机制,并运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法探讨了水位突变的原因。结果表明,泛北极湖泊的水位整体上呈现不同程度上升(平均速率为0.013 m/a),有23个(64%)湖泊的水位呈上升趋势;研究湖泊中有10个通过90%统计显著性检验。其中,水位上升速率最大的湖泊是位于哈萨克斯坦的腾吉兹湖,上升速率为0.078 m/a。泛北极湖泊水位的波动主要与径流有关,有19个(53%)湖泊的水位波动与径流的增加更为相关;相比而言,位于亚洲的极地湖泊水位的上升与流域蒸发的降低显著相关,尤其是库苏古尔湖。从区域大气环流影响来看,泛北极湖泊水位变化主要与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关,其次是北极涛动和北大西洋涛动。本研究有助于加深对泛北极湖泊近20年水位变化规律及气候影响特征的科学理解。  相似文献   

9.
The impact of global climate change on runoff components, especially on the type of overland flow, is of utmost significance. High‐resolution temporal rainfall plays an important role in determining the hydrological response of quick runoff components. However, hydrological climate change scenario analyses with high temporal resolution are rare. This study investigates the impact of climate change on discharge peak events generated by rainfall, snowmelt, and soil‐frost induced runoff using high‐resolution hydrological modelling. The study area is Schäfertal catchment (1.44 km2) in the lower Harz Mountains in central Germany. The WaSiM‐ETH hydrological model is used to investigate the rainfall response of runoff components under near future (2021–2050) and far‐distant future (2071–2100) climatic conditions. Disaggregated daily climate variables of WETTREG2010 SRES scenario A1B are used on a temporal resolution of 10 min. Hydrological model parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis was conducted using the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM_(ZS)) uncertainty tool. The scenario results show that total runoff and interflow will increase by 3.8% and 3.5% in the near future and decrease by 32.85% and 31% in the far‐distant future compared to the baseline scenario. In contrast, overland flow and the number and size of peak runoff will decrease moderately for the near future and drastically for the far‐distant future compared to the baseline scenario. We found the strongest decrease for soil‐frost induced discharge peaks at 79.6% in the near future and at 98.2% in the far‐distant future scenario. It can be concluded that high‐resolution hydrological modelling can provide detailed predictions of future hydrological regimes and discharge peak events of the catchment. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
内蒙古呼伦湖水量平衡计算与分析   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  
根据呼伦湖的实际水文过程,计算1963-1980年月水量平衡,在此基础上,分析库容与径流、径流+降雨、径流+降雨-蒸发的相关性.利用累积和分析水位、径流、降雨、蒸发年均值的突变情况,进而重点论述了2000年后水位持续降低的原因.同时,探讨各水平衡项的年内分布规律及相互关系.结果表明,2000年后水位的急剧降低是气候变化(暖干化)造成的.河川径流对水位的影响程度最大,其次为湖面降雨.每年4、5月,冰封期积累的降雪融化渗入地下补给湖泊,其他时间则由湖泊补给地下水.  相似文献   

11.
This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225 km2) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 1989?2009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 2049?2065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4°C to +2.6°C) and a decrease in total precipitation (?22% to ?31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (?19% to ?63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch  相似文献   

12.
Recent climate change represents one of the most serious anthropogenic threats to lake ecosystems in Canada. As meteorological and hydrological conditions are altered by climate change, so too are physical, chemical and biological properties of lakes. The ability to quantify the impact of climate change on the physical properties of lakes represents an integral step in estimating future chemical and biological change. To that end, we have used the dynamic reservoir simulation model, a one‐dimensional vertical heat transfer and mixing model, to hindcast and compare lake temperature‐depth profiles against 30 years of long‐term monitoring data in Harp Lake, Ontario. These temperature profiles were used to calculate annual (June–September) thermal stability values from 1979 to 2009. Comparisons between measured and modelled lake water temperature and thermal stability over three decades showed strong correlation (r2 > 0.9). However, despite significant increases in modelled thermal stability over the 30 year record, we found no significant change in the timing of the onset, breakdown or the duration of thermal stratification. Our data suggest that increased air temperature and decreased wind are the primary drivers of enhanced stability in Harp Lake since 1979. The high‐predictive ability of the Harp Lake dynamic reservoir simulation model suggests that its use as a tool in future lake management projects is appropriate. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Quantitative evaluation of the effect of climate variability and human activities on runoff is of great importance for water resources planning and management in terms of maintaining the ecosystem integrity and sustaining the society development. In this paper, hydro‐climatic data from four catchments (i.e. Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment, Hutuo River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment) in the Haihe River basin from 1957 to 2000 were used to quantitatively attribute the hydrological response (i.e. runoff) to climate change and human activities separately. To separate the attributes, the temporal trends of annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff during 1957–2000 were first explored by the Mann–Kendall test. Despite that only Hutuo River catchment was dominated by a significant negative trend in annual precipitation, all four catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff varying from ?0.859 (Chaohe River) to ?1.996 mm a?1 (Zhanghe River). Change points in 1977 and 1979 are detected by precipitation–runoff double cumulative curves method and Pettitt's test for Zhanghe River and the other three rivers, respectively, and are adopted to divide data set into two study periods as the pre‐change period and post‐change period. Three methods including hydrological model method, hydrological sensitivity analysis method and climate elasticity method were calibrated with the hydro‐climatic data during the pre‐change period. Then, hydrological runoff response to climate variability and human activities was quantitatively evaluated with the help of the three methods and based on the assumption that climate and human activities are the only drivers for streamflow and are independent of each other. Similar estimates of anthropogenic and climatic effects on runoff for catchments considered can be obtained from the three methods. We found that human activities were the main driving factors for the decline in annual runoff in Luanhe River catchment, Chaohe River catchment and Zhanghe River catchment, accounting for over 50% of runoff reduction. However, climate variability should be responsible for the decrease in annual runoff in the Hutuo River catchment. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
中亚近期气候变化的湖泊响应   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
秦伯强 《湖泊科学》1993,5(2):118-127
本世纪以来,气候的暖干化趋势在北半球中纬度地区表现突出,对该地区水资源造成了一系列的影响,基于这一事实,本文主要考察了中亚干旱和半干旱地区内陆湖泊对气候变化的响应。研究表明,气候变化对湖泊影响主要有二种途径,其一是通过热量平衡影响湖泊水量收支中的支出项,即蒸发量;其二是影响湖泊收入项,即降水与地表径流。伊塞克湖以前者为主,青海湖以后者为主。在相同的气候变化背景下,不同湖盆形态的湖泊对此作出的响应不尽相同:湖盆浅平,以面积变化为主;湖盆深凹,则以水位变化为主。  相似文献   

15.
本文较为详细地分析了近半个世纪以来的伊塞克湖区实测水文和气象资料。指出流域内降水量的变化未出现减少趋势,相反在湖泊东部迎风坡上,降水有增大的趋势。这部分增加的降水量是由于气候趋暖造成蒸发量增加所致。同时气候趋暖也使冰川消融扩大,径流量增加。但由于沿河引水灌溉,使河川径流在滨湖地带显著减少。灌溉的实质是扩大蒸发面,使蒸发水量增加。蒸发形成的水量,部分以降水形式返回湖内,部分越过流域边界外逸,外逸水量的多少决定了湖水位的下降速度。  相似文献   

16.
The Kalu Ganga catchment is one of the largest in Sri Lanka, and is home to 5% of the national population. A first assessment is provided here of the sensitivity of Kalu Ganga runoff to a 2°C increase in global mean temperature – the supposed threshold for “dangerous” climate change. Runoff is simulated using the HBV-Light hydrological model and scenario data from seven general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation is the strongest cause of change in runoff. Substantial inter-GCM differences in scenario precipitation lead to uncertainty in the direction of change in mean annual runoff from the baseline (range ?25% to +19%). Scenario monthly runoff ranges from ?41% to +124% of the baseline values at its most extreme (March); June is the only month with a consistent direction of change (range ?17% to ?65%) – thus indicating that climate change may lead to a substantially different hydrological regime in the Kalu Ganga catchment.  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT

Surface runoff generation capacity can be modified by land-use and climate changes. Annual runoff volumes have been evaluated in a small watershed of tropical forest (Brazil), using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Firstly, the accuracy of SWAT in runoff predictions has been assessed by default input parameters and improved by automatic calibration, using 20-year observations. Then, the hydrological response under land uses (cropland, pasture and deforested soil) alternative to tropical forest and climate change scenarios has been simulated. SWAT application has showed that, if forest was replaced by crops or pasture, the watershed’s hydrological response would not significantly be affected. Conversely, a complete deforestation would slightly increase its runoff generation capacity. Under forecasted climate scenarios, the runoff generation capacity of the watershed will tend to decrease and will not be noticeably different among the representative concentration pathways. Pasture and bare soil will give the lowest and highest runoff coefficients, respectively.  相似文献   

18.
In accounting for uncertainties in future simulations of hydrological response of a catchment, two approaches have come to the fore: deterministic scenario‐based approaches and stochastic probabilistic approaches. As scenario‐based approaches result in a wide range of outcomes, the role of probabilistic‐based estimates of climate change impacts for policy formulation has been increasingly advocated by researchers and policy makers. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on seasonal river flows by propagating daily climate time series, derived from probabilistic‐based climate scenarios using a weather generator (WGEN), through a set of conceptual hydrological models. Probabilistic scenarios are generated using two different techniques. The first technique used probabilistic climate scenarios developed from statistically downscaled scenarios for Ireland, hereafter called SDprob. The second technique used output from 17 global climate models (GCMs), all of which participated in CMIP3, to generate change factors (hereafter called CF). Outputs from both the SDprob and the CF approach were then used in combination with WGEN to generate daily climate scenarios for use in the hydrological models. The range of simulated flow derived with the CF method is in general larger than those estimated with the SDprob method in winter and vice versa because of the strong seasonality in the precipitation signal for the 17 GCMs. Despite this, the simulated probability density function of seasonal mean streamflow estimated with both methods is similar. This indicates the usefulness of the SDprob or probabilistic approach derived from regional scenarios compared with the CF method that relies on sampling a diversity of response from the GCMs. Irrespective of technique used, the probability density functions of seasonal mean flow produced for four selected basins is wide indicating considerable modelling uncertainties. Such a finding has important implications for developing adaptation strategies at the catchment level in Ireland. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
ABSTRACT

The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment.  相似文献   

20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):418-431
Abstract

The water balance of the closed freshwater Lake Awassa was estimated using a spreadsheet hydrological model based on long-term monthly hydrometeorological data. The model uses monthly evaporation, river discharge and precipitation data as input. The net groundwater flux is obtained from model simulation as a residual of other water balance components. The result revealed that evaporation, precipitation, and runoff constitute 131, 106 and 83 × 106 m3 of the annual water balance of the lake, respectively. The annual net groundwater outflow from the lake to adjacent basins is 58 × 106 m3. The simulated and recorded lake levels fit well for much of the simulation period (1981–1999). However, for recent years, the simulated and recorded levels do not fit well. This may be explained in terms of the combined effects of land-use change and neotectonism, which have affected the long-term average water balance. With detailed long-term hydrogeological and meteorological data, investigation of the subsurface hydrodynamics, and including the effect of land-use change and tectonism on surface water and groundwater fluxes, the water balance model can be used efficiently for water management practice. The result of this study is expected to play a positive role in future sustainable use of water resources in the catchment.  相似文献   

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