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1.
The use of probability distribution ofrecurrence times as described by theexponential, Weibull and Rayleihgprobability densities form the core of theprobabilistic seismic prediction analysispresented in this paper. Using these threeprobabilistic models we derive threeformulas to calculate the conditionalprobability P(t|t) than an earthquakeevent will occur in the time interval (t, t+ t), provide that it has not occurredin the elapsed time t since the last largeearthquake (M 6.4) in the Tokyo area.This paper proposes a new method toestimate the time interval t foroccurrence of a new large earthquake inTokyo area. This time interval is measuredafter the elapsed time (t) since the lastlarge earthquake. To do this we use thethree formulas for the conditionalprobability P(t|t) and the criterionof the maximum conditional probability ofearthquake occurrence.Using a list of historical earthquakeswhich have occurred in the Tokyo area asgiven by Usami (1976, pp. 235–243), wefound that: (1) Using the exponentialmodel, it is estimated that a highlydamaging earthquake magnitude M 6.4, mayoccur before the year 2009.50, orequivalently before June 2009; (2) Usingthe Weibull model, it is estimated that thedamaging earthquake (M 6.4) may occurbefore the year 2129.80, or equivalentlybefore October 2129.  相似文献   

2.
Moment tensors of ten witwatersrand mine tremors   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Ground motions, recorded both underground and on the surface in two of the South African Gold mining districts, were inverted to determine complete moment tensors for 10 mining-induced tremors in the magnitude range 1.9 to 3.3. The resulting moment tensors fall into two separate categories. Seven of the events involve substantial coseismic volumetric reduction-V together with normal faulting entailing shear deformation AD, where the summation is over fault planes of areaA and average slipD. For these events the ratio-V/AD ranges from 0.58 to 0.92, with an average value of 0.71. For the remaining three events V is not significantly different from zero; these events are largely double-couple sources involving normal faulting. Surprisingly, the two types of source mechanism appear to be very distinct in that there is not a continuous distribution of the source mix from V=0 to-VAD. Presumably, the coseismic closure indicates substantial interaction between a mine stope and adjacent shear failure in the surrounding rock, under the influence of an ambient stress for which the maximum principal stress is oriented vertically.  相似文献   

3.
u uuuuaumau uu u m, ¶rt;u a mumau nmu a u nmu mau u nmmu. au n¶rt; nuau ¶rt;mam u u m. nua m¶rt; m u m¶rt;a aau (1960) ¶rt; uu .  相似文献   

4.
Summary The theory of methods of computing single- and inter-station transfer functions in both the spectral and time domains was developed in paper[1]. Both approaches are applied to the variation data recorded at field stations along two non-simultaneous profiles traversing the eastern margin of the Bohemian Massif, where a zone of anomalous induction seems to mark an important geological boundary of formations with different histories of development. The results of both analyses are found to coincide within reasonable bounds of 20–30% in the principal induction characteristics.
u m¶rt; ama ¶rt;-u -mau n¶rt;am u nma u am a ua am[1]. am nua m am a n¶rt;¶rt;a nu ¶rt; aaua ¶rt;aaum auau aumua a n mau ¶rt; u nu, nau m au aua,¶rt; aa a aa u¶rt;uu. a, u¶rt;u, mamau a¶rt;a ¶rt; ¶rt; ¶rt;uuau au umuu aumu. mam aau nma u am auam a 20–30% ¶rt; u¶rt;u naam.
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5.
Summary The elements of the VLF chorus, observed simultaneously at a ground station and satellite in polar orbit, can be used to determine the differences in the arrival times of waves and their dependence on latitude. Mostly does not change practically over a wide range of latitudes, however, in some cases it may increase appreciably at low value of L. Model computations of the propagation time, based on the assumption that the source of the chorus is located close to the equatorial plane, have indicated the possibility of explaining the increase in at low latitudes by the presence of a step in the electron density profile close to this plane.
a¶rt;u m a u a um nmu nun um nm n¶rt;um amu u nu¶rt;a ma a u u um auum (L). um a a m ¶rt;uana um, m a a¶rt;am aum uu a a L-a. am anmau n¶rt;nuu amua umua naam m um uu a uu uma auu mnu an¶rt;uu m mauu amua nmu.
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6.
a mam 10-mu u¶rt;au ¶rt;uauu nmu a anam. auum aam mua ¶rt;uu u nu amu uu, a , muu, u auauu n u mmu u uu umaa u ¶rt; nmu uuau.  相似文献   

7.
A set of acceleration source spectra is constructed using the observed parameters of the specific barrier model of Papageorgiou and Aki. The spectra show a significant departure from the 2-model at the high frequency range. Specifically, the high frequency spectral amplitudes of seismic excitation are higher as compared to the level predicted by the 2-model. This is also supported by other observational evidence. The high frequency amplitudes of acceleration scale proportionally to the square root of the rupture areaS, to the rupture spreading velocityv, and to the local strain drop (/) (=strain drop in between barriers). The local strain drop in between barriers is not related in a simple way to the global strain drop, which is the strain drop estimated by assuming that it is uniform over the entire rupture area. Consequently, the similarity law does not apply. Using the source spectra which we constructed, we derive expressions for high frequency amplitudes of acceleration such asa rms anda max. Close to the fault both are independent of fault dimensions and scale as (/µ)(f)1/2, while away from the fault plane they scale asW 1/2(/µ)(f)1/2, whereW is the width of the fault and f is the effective bandwidth of the spectra.  相似文献   

8.
Summary The CHMI LAOFM is used in the daily routine of the Central Forecasting Office of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute and some special results are transmitted to the regional offices. The model works in the region of Europe and the North Atlantic, uses conservative finite difference schemes and two types of semi-implicit schemes that allow effective model structurization in terms of programming language. The basic philosophy of the model is described.
¶rt; a zau mumuu unm zumzu umumm () ¶rt; z uz nza. m mam ¶rt;a zu nzam am amuu. z amam amu n u amu mamuz aa, un am , a a aa au. ama aum mu auau z n- , ma cam m nm a auuam mmauau nza. mam nuaa u u auauu.
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9.
¶rt; u n ¶rt; (nmu) muauu m m naaamu auu . am mu uu nu unauu ¶rt;a mu ¶rt; nuu u umuau. am ¶rt; ¶rt;u ¶rt;uua u nuam n uu. ¶rt;m uau u au nm u mnum ¶rt;a. a mm n¶rt;a ±0,1 naaamu auu ¶rt; um amu ¶rt; z=80° u ¶rt; m u ¶rt; =10 (uuaa). u¶rt;um nm u au am[2].  相似文献   

10.
u¶rt;m mam uu u nu a¶rt;u m¶rt;3 (a na¶rt;u) a amm 1539 a amuu aa a nu¶rt; am 1978 — am 1981. u m nuau nu mma. a¶rt;am u¶rt;aa ma (a aumu) u a auau nu, u u aauu u an u u. numa u am au nu ¶rt; =60° na¶rt;am. au naa, m nu u um a a ¶rt;a ¶rt;m a nu¶rt;, nu a m n u nua nu mma am 1980.  相似文献   

11.
Summary Localization errors made by approximating a given medium by a homogeneous rectangular block model and due to the approximative solution of two-point ray tracing are estimated for four different structures. The separate influence of the individual characteristics of the medium is discussed. The iterative Geiger method supplemented by a generalized inversion of the damped least-squares and Marquardt algorithm is used for localizating five hypothetical hypocentres using 9 stations. Travel times in the original structures, used as input data for localization, are calculated using a special ray tracing system.
am uu auauu a annuau a ¶rt; ¶rt; ma u ma ¶rt;¶rt; u annuau m a ¶rt; munau nuuum .
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12.
¶rt;aam ¶rt;a m¶rt;a amu uaa, u u , u auam u ma mum nuu ¶rt; uau aumma. u n u ama u ma n¶rt; ma m¶rt;a nm a umam u naa u ¶rt; nuu. mm m¶rt; n au auu u aau n¶rt;mam a au nm aum nu m unu a a.  相似文献   

13.
Summary With the use of the method of boundary integral equations, a stationary approximation of the magnetotelluric field for a three-dimensional prism located in the vicinity of a vertical contact of two quarterspaces, whereby the applied electric field is oriented parallel with the vertical boundary, is solved. In combination with the solution for the perpendicular orientation of the exciting electric field, the theoretical Wiese induction vectors for three positions of the 3-D prism are calculated. It was shown that the centre of divergence of the Wiese vectors is displaced from the epicentre of the prism, namely, if the prism is close to the vertical boundary.
nu m¶rt;a ¶rt;a u¶rt;a au n¶rt;maa mauaa annuau u nu¶rt; mam u¶rt; ama a¶rt;ummu¶rt; n ¶rt; nu, an uu mua¶rt; mama ¶rt; mmnmam. ¶rt;a mu n n¶rt;na¶rt;am ana naa mua ¶rt;au. uau aamua¶rt; a a aauua a nn¶rt;u ana¶rt; ¶rt;a¶rt; n ¶rt;aa m uum mmuu u¶rt;u m u ¶rt; m nu m nu. aa, m m a¶rt;u m u mum numa nu, ¶rt;¶rt;a nua nuaam mua ¶rt;au.
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14.
Summary The effectiveness of recording seismic phenomena in the Kruné hory (Mts.) region in NW Bohemia by selected stations in the CSR, GDR and Poland has been estimated. Magnitude isolines of the weakest earthquakes, which can be localized and detected with an 0.9 probability, were calculated on the basis of the level of seismic disturbances at the individual stations and of the empirical dependence of the attenuation of seismic waves with distance.
a a mum umauu uu u amu ¶rt; ana¶rt; uu uau mauu a mumuu , u a a uu n a m¶rt; mau u nuu auumu amau uu m amu u auma uuuu aum¶rt; a a mu, m mm 0.9 auuam u aum.
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15.
¶rt;am au uu ¶rt; aam ¶rt;uu ¶rt;u ma; ¶rt;am am u ¶rt; a, ¶rt;a u¶rt; amua m uuu a; num n aaa auauu nm.  相似文献   

16.
Summary The sequence of aurorae, observed at latitudes up to 55° between the years 1001 and 1900 was processed by methods of spectral analysis. The same methods were applied to parts of various duration of this interval. The periods predominant in the time series under investigation were determined. In all the selected parts of the interval, these periods are always located within the same frequency band. Their position is related to the periods corresponding to mutual conjunctions of the large planets.
¶rt; n uu, a¶rt;au a uma ¶rt; 55° nu¶rt; 1001–1900, ama nu nu m¶rt; nma aaua. a n¶rt; ¶rt; am a ¶rt;u m umaa. u n¶rt; na¶rt;au nu¶rt; u¶rt;a ¶rt;a. mu nu¶rt; ¶rt; a am umaa ¶rt;a a¶rt;m ¶rt;ua ¶rt;uaan amm. nu mum nu¶rt;au, mmmuu au u u nam.
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17.
On 29–30 September 1996, an earthquake sequence occurred in the Füzesgyarmat region in eastern Hungary. The main shock had a magnitude of ML = 3.2 and was felt with a maximum intensity 4 MSK. It was preceded by a foreshock with a magnitude of ML = 2.8 and was followed, within six hours, by five aftershocks with magnitudes 2.1ML 3.1. The dynamic source parameters of the Füzesgyarmat earthquake sequence have been derived from P-wave spectra of the Hungarian seismograph stations. The average of the obtained values at different stations shows that the main shock occurred on a fault length of 610 m, with relative displacement of 1.13 cm, stress drop of 7 bar and seismic moment of 3.96*1021 dyne.cm. The main shock was small to yield data for a full mechanism solution and no reliable single fault plane solution could be obtained due to the low signal to noise ratio at the recording stations. The parameters of the foreshock are fault length of 560m, seismic moment of 2.09*1021 dyne.cm, stress drop of 5.53 bar and relative displacement of 0.73 cm. The five aftershocks show source parameters similar to the foreshock stress drops (5.26 5.76 bar), fault lengths (415 L 600 m), seismic moments (8.36*1020 Mo 2.31*1021 dyne.cm) and relative displacements (0.52 0.91 cm).  相似文献   

18.
Summary The interpretation of surface seismic waves records is rather complicated as they include a superposition of oscillations of the fundamental mode and higher modes. Besides recorded oscillations depend on spectral characteristics of motions in earthquakes sources. The consideration of these problems is based on results of surface waves two-dimensional modelling [1]3. Some physical ideas about their formation deals with the change of the nature of the oscillation propagating with dispersion. This report represents a condensate of several independent works. , , . , . , . () . .Scientific communication presented to the IASPEI Assembly, Madrid, 1969.  相似文献   

19.
Summary The radiation power a VLF loop antenna with an arbitrary orientation of the loop's plane relative to the direction of the external magnetic field is calculated and its portion, transferred to the electromagnetic part of the excited spectrum, is determined.
am umaa m uu am c nu umau nmu uma n m¶rt; a¶rt;um¶rt; n u n¶rt;a ma am mu uu, u¶rt;a ma¶rt;um am am cnma ¶rt;a au.
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20.
Summary The effect of an irregular contact of two different rock types on the surface heat flow was analysed for the Zlatý Kopec region in northwest Bohemia. The 2-D geothermal model of subsurface structures was compiled according to measured values of the thermal conductivity and heat sources and by using isobaths map of the metamorphite-granite boundary. The heat flow was computed numerically from the temperature distribution obtained as a finite-difference solution of the heat conduction equation. It was found that the heat flow variation, corresponding to the most probable model, amounts approximately to the half of the actually observed changes. The surface heat flow is affected strongly by the thermal conductivity contrast between the overlying metamorphites and underlying granites and, on the contrary, it is little sensitive to the heat production difference between both rock types. It seems, therefore, that, despite the big heat production contrast observed, the main source of the heat flow variability are thermal conductivity inhomogeneities.
¶rt;am uu mama ¶rt; m¶rt; mun n¶rt; a nm mn nm ¶rt; amu am n ana¶rt; uu. a u au mnn¶rt;mu u mnauu u n amu aauauaum — mauu n¶rt; a maa ¶rt;a ¶rt; nunm mm. n nm auma n -am u au mnn¶rt;mu. mam ¶rt;m, m auau mn nma ma a m ¶rt;u, n¶rt;mam nuuum nu a¶rt;a uu. a nm m u um aua mnn¶rt;mu ¶rt; aauu mauuu n¶rt;au u uaauaum, u am, nm a mum auu mnauu ¶rt; muu n¶rt;au. aum, m, m a a¶rt;a au mnauu,a umu auau mn nma m ¶rt;¶rt;mu uma mnn¶rt;mu.
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