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1.
We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.  相似文献   

2.
On the 27 June 2015, at 15:34:03 UTC, a moderate-sized earthquake of M w 5.0 occurred in the Gulf of Aqaba. Using teleseismic P waves, the focal mechanism of the mainshock was investigated by two techniques. The first technique used the polarities of the first P wave onsets, and the second technique was based on the normalized waveform modeling technique. The results showed that the extension stress has a NE orientation with a shallow southward plunge while the compression stress has a NW trend with a nearly shallow westward plunge, obtaining a strike-slip mechanism. This result agrees well with the typical consequence of crustal deformation resulting from the ongoing extensional to shear stress regime in the Gulf of Aqaba (NE-SW extension and NW-SE compression). The grid search method over a range of focal depths indicates an optimum solution at 15 ± 1 km. To identify the causative fault plane, the aftershock hypocenters were relocated using the local waveform data and the double-difference technique. Considering the fault trends, the spatial distribution of relocated aftershocks demarcated a NS-oriented causative fault, in consistence with one of the nodal planes of the focal mechanism solution, emphasizing the dominant stress regime in the region. Following the Brune model, the estimates of source parameters exhibited fault lengths of 0.29 ≤ L ≤ 2.48 km, moment magnitudes of 3.0 ≤ M w ≤ 5.0, and stress drops of 0.14 ≤ Δσ < 1.14 MPa, indicating a source scaling similar to the tectonic earthquakes related to plate boundaries.  相似文献   

3.
Analysis of the frequency dependence of the attenuation coefficient leads to significant changes in interpretation of seismic attenuation data. Here, several published surface-wave attenuation studies are revisited from a uniform viewpoint of the temporal attenuation coefficient, denoted by χ. Theoretically, χ( f) is expected to be linear in frequency, with a generally non-zero intercept γ?=?χ(0) related to the variations of geometrical spreading, and slope dχ/df = π/Q e caused by the effective attenuation of the medium. This phenomenological model allows a simple classification of χ( f) dependences as combinations of linear segments within several frequency bands. Such linear patterns are indeed observed for Rayleigh waves at 500–100-s and 100–10-s periods, and also for Lg from ~2 s to ~1.5 Hz. The Lg χ( f) branch overlaps with similar linear branches of body, Pn, and coda waves, which were described earlier and extend to ~100 Hz. For surface waves shorter than ~100 s, γ values recorded in areas of stable and active tectonics are separated by the levels of \(\gamma _{D} \approx 0.2 \times 10^{-3}\) s???1 (for Rayleigh waves) and 8 ×10???3 s???1 (for Lg). The recently recognized discrepancy between the values of Q measured from long-period surface waves and normal-mode oscillations could also be explained by a slight positive bias in the geometrical spreading of surface waves. Similarly to the apparent χ, the corresponding linear variation with frequency is inferred for the intrinsic attenuation coefficient, χ i , which combines the effects of geometrical spreading and dissipation within the medium. Frequency-dependent rheological or scattering Q is not required for explaining any of the attenuation observations considered in this study. The often-interpreted increase of Q with frequency may be apparent and caused by using the Q-based model of attenuation and following preferred Q( f) dependences while ignoring the true χ( f) trends within the individual frequency bands.  相似文献   

4.
Attenuation characteristics in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) are estimated from 157 local seismograph recordings out of 46 earthquakes of 2.6?≤?M?≤?4.1 with hypocentral distances up to 60 km and focal depths down to 25 km. Digital waveform seismograms were obtained from local earthquakes in the NMSZ recorded by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) at the University of Memphis. Using the coda normalization method, we tried to determine Q values and geometrical spreading exponents at 13 center frequencies. The scatter of the data and trade-off between the geometrical spreading and the quality factor did not allow us to simultaneously derive both these parameters from inversion. Assuming 1/R 1.0 as the geometrical spreading function in the NMSZ, the Q P and Q S estimates increase with increasing frequency from 354 and 426 at 4 Hz to 729 and 1091 at 24 Hz, respectively. Fitting a power law equation to the Q estimates, we found the attenuation models for the P waves and S waves in the frequency range of 4 to 24 Hz as Q P?=?(115.80?±?1.36) f (0.495?±?0.129) and Q S?=?(161.34?±?1.73) f (0.613?±?0.067), respectively. We did not consider Q estimates from the coda normalization method for frequencies less than 4 Hz in the regression analysis since the decay of coda amplitude was not observed at most bandpass filtered seismograms for these frequencies. Q S/Q P?>?1, for 4?≤?f?≤?24 Hz as well as strong intrinsic attenuation, suggest that the crust beneath the NMSZ is partially fluid-saturated. Further, high scattering attenuation indicates the presence of a high level of small-scale heterogeneities inside the crust in this region.  相似文献   

5.
To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w  ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T w  = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.  相似文献   

6.
The damping modification factor (DMF) has been extensively used in earthquake engineering to describe the variation of structural responses due to varied damping ratios. It is known that DMFs are dependent not only on structural dynamic properties but also on characteristics of ground motions. DMFs regulated in current seismic codes are generally developed based on far-fault ground motions and are inappropriately used in structural design where pulse-like near-fault ground motions are involved. In this paper, statistical investigation of the DMF is performed based on 50 carefully selected pulse-like near-fault ground motions. It is observed that DMFs for pulse-like ground motions exhibit significant dependence on the pulse period T p in a specific period range. If the period of the structure in response is close to the pulse period, the DMF attains the same level as that derived from far-fault ground motions; as the period of the structure is considerably larger or smaller than the pulse period T p , the response reduction effect by the increased damping ratio is generally small, except for large earthquakes with long pulse periods, which exhibit significant reduction of response for structures with periods smaller than T p . Based on the statistical results of DMFs, the empirical formulas for estimating DMFs for displacement, velocity and acceleration spectra are proposed, the effect of structural period, pulse period and damping ratio are considered in the formulas, and the formulas are designed to satisfy the specific reliability requirement in the period range of 0.1 < T/T p  < 1, which is of engineering interest.  相似文献   

7.
Attenuation of P and S waves has been investigated in Alborz and north central part of Iran using the data recorded by two permanent and one temporary networks during October 20, 2009, to December 22, 2010. The dataset consists of 14,000 waveforms from 380 local earthquakes (2 < M L < 5.6). The extended coda normalization method (CNM) was used to estimate quality factor of P (Q P) and S waves (Q S) at seven frequency bands (0.375, 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24 Hz). The Q P and Q S values have been estimated at lapse times from 40 to 100 s. It has been observed that the estimated values of Q P and Q S are time independent; therefore, the mean values of Q P and Q S at different lapse times have been considered. The frequency dependence of quality factor was determined by using a power-law relationship. The frequency-dependent relationship for Q P was estimated in the form of (62 ± 7)f (1.03 ± 0.07) and (48 ± 5)f (0.95 ± 0.07) in Alborz region and North Central Iran, respectively. These relations for Q S for Alborz region and North Central Iran have estimated as (83 ± 8)f (0.99 ± 0.07) and (68 ± 5)f (0.96 ± 0.05), respectively. The observed low Q values could be the results of thermoelastic effects and/or existing fracture. The estimated frequency-dependent relationships are comparable with tectonically active regions.  相似文献   

8.
This study analyzes and compares the P- and S-wave displacement spectra from local earthquakes and explosions of similar magnitudes. We propose a new approach to discrimination between low-magnitude shallow earthquakes and explosions by using ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequencies as a criterion. We have explored 2430 digital records of the Israeli Seismic Network (ISN) from 456 local events (226 earthquakes, 230 quarry blasts, and a few underwater explosions) of magnitudes Md?=?1.4–3.4, which occurred at distances up to 250 km during 2001–2013 years. P-wave and S-wave displacement spectra were computed for all events following Brune’s source model of earthquakes (1970, 1971) and applying the distance correction coefficients (Shapira and Hofstetter, Teconophysics 217:217–226, 1993; Ataeva G, Shapira A, Hofstetter A, J Seismol 19:389-401, 2015), The corner frequencies and moment magnitudes were determined using multiple stations for each event, and then the comparative analysis was performed.The analysis showed that both P-wave and especially S-wave displacement spectra of quarry blasts demonstrate the corner frequencies lower than those obtained from earthquakes of similar magnitudes. A clear separation between earthquake and explosion populations was obtained for ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequency f 0(P)/f 0(S). The ratios were computed for each event with corner frequencies f 0 of P- and S-wave, which were obtained from the measured f 0 I at individual stations, then corrected for distance and finally averaged. We obtained empirically the average estimation of f 0(P)/f 0(S)?=?1.23 for all used earthquakes, and 1.86 for all explosions. We found that the difference in the ratios can be an effective discrimination parameter which does not depend on estimated moment magnitude M w .The new multi-station Corner Frequency Discriminant (CFD) for earthquakes and explosions in Israel was developed based on ratios P- to S-wave corner frequencies f 0(P)/f 0(S), with the empirical threshold value of the ratio for Israel as 1.48.  相似文献   

9.
We study the frictional and viscous effects on earthquake nucleation, especially for the nucleation phase, based on a one-degree-of-freedom spring-slider model with friction and viscosity. The frictional and viscous effects are specified by the characteristic displacement, U c, and viscosity coefficient, η, respectively. Simulation results show that friction and viscosity can both lengthen the natural period of the system and viscosity increases the duration time of motion of the slider. Higher viscosity causes a smaller amplitude of lower velocity motion than lower viscosity. A change of either U c (under large η) or η (under large U c) from a large value (U ch for U c and η h for η) to a small one (U cl for U c and η l for η) in two stages during sliding can result in a clear nucleation phase prior to the P-wave. The differences δU c = U ch ? U cl and δη = η h ? η l are two important factors in producing a nucleation phase. The difference between the nucleation phase and the P-wave increases with either δU c or δη. Like seismic observations, the peak amplitude of P-wave, which is associated with the earthquake magnitude, is independent upon the duration time of nucleation phase. A mechanism specified with a change of either η or U c from a larger value to a smaller one due to temporal variations in pore fluid pressure and temperature in the fault zone based on radiation efficiency is proposed to explain the simulation results and observations.  相似文献   

10.
In this study, we aim to improve the scaling between the moment magnitude (M W), local magnitude (M L), and the duration magnitude (M D) for 162 earthquakes in Shillong-Mikir plateau and its adjoining region of northeast India by extending the M W estimates to lower magnitude earthquakes using spectral analysis of P-waves from vertical component seismograms. The M W-M L and M W-M D relationships are determined by linear regression analysis. It is found that, M W values can be considered consistent with M L and M D, within 0.1 and 0.2 magnitude units respectively, in 90 % of the cases. The scaling relationships investigated comply well with similar relationships in other regions in the world and in other seismogenic areas in the northeast India region.  相似文献   

11.
Many studies on global climate have forecast major changes in the amounts and spatial patterns of precipitation that may significantly affect temperate grasslands in arid and semi-arid regions. As a part of ChinaFLUX, eddy covariance flux measurements were made at a semi-arid Leymus chinensis steppe in Inner Mongolia, China during 2003–2004 to quantify the response of carbon exchange to environmental changes. Results showed that gross ecosystem production (F GEP) and ecosystem respiration (R eco) of the steppe were significantly depressed by water stress due to lack of precipitation during the growing season. Temperature was the dominant factor affecting F GEP and R eco in 2003, whereas soil moisture imposed a significant influence on both R eco and F GEP in 2004. Under wet conditions, R eco showed an exponentially increasing trend with temperature (Q 10 = 2.0), but an apparent reduction in the value of R eco and its temperature sensitivity were observed during the periods of water stress (Q 10=1.6). Both heat and water stress can cause decrease in F GEP. The seasonality of ecosystem carbon exchange was strongly correlated with the variation of precipitation. With less precipitation in 2003, the steppe sequestrated carbon in June and July, and went into a senescence in early August due to water stress. As compared to 2003, the severe drought during the spring of 2004 delayed the growth of the steppe until late June, and the steppe became a CO2 sink from early July until mid-September, with ample precipitation in August. The semi-arid steppe released a total of 9.7 g C·m?2 from May 16 to the end of September 2003, whereas the net carbon budget during the same period in 2004 was close to zero. Long-term measurements over various grasslands are needed to quantify carbon balance in temperate grasslands.  相似文献   

12.
Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (Amax) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of Amax and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of Amax on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the Amax is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of Amax for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.  相似文献   

13.
The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M0?=?1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and fmax?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.  相似文献   

14.
The forecasting of evaporative loss (E) is vital for water resource management and understanding of hydrological process for farming practices, ecosystem management and hydrologic engineering. This study has developed three machine learning algorithms, namely the relevance vector machine (RVM), extreme learning machine (ELM) and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) for the prediction of E using five predictor variables, incident solar radiation (S), maximum temperature (T max), minimum temperature (T min), atmospheric vapor pressure (VP) and precipitation (P). The RVM model is based on the Bayesian formulation of a linear model with appropriate prior that results in sparse representations. The ELM model is computationally efficient algorithm based on Single Layer Feedforward Neural Network with hidden neurons that randomly choose input weights and the MARS model is built on flexible regression algorithm that generally divides solution space into intervals of predictor variables and fits splines (basis functions) to each interval. By utilizing random sampling process, the predictor data were partitioned into the training phase (70 % of data) and testing phase (remainder 30 %). The equations for the prediction of monthly E were formulated. The RVM model was devised using the radial basis function, while the ELM model comprised of 5 inputs and 10 hidden neurons and used the radial basis activation function, and the MARS model utilized 15 basis functions. The decomposition of variance among the predictor dataset of the MARS model yielded the largest magnitude of the Generalized Cross Validation statistic (≈0.03) when the T max was used as an input, followed by the relatively lower value (≈0.028, 0.019) for inputs defined by the S and VP. This confirmed that the prediction of E utilized the largest contributions of the predictive features from the T max, verified emphatically by sensitivity analysis test. The model performance statistics yielded correlation coefficients of 0.979 (RVM), 0.977 (ELM) and 0.974 (MARS), Root-Mean-Square-Errors of 9.306, 9.714 and 10.457 and Mean-Absolute-Error of 0.034, 0.035 and 0.038. Despite the small differences in the overall prediction skill, the RVM model appeared to be more accurate in prediction of E. It is therefore advocated that the RVM model can be employed as a promising machine learning tool for the prediction of evaporative loss.  相似文献   

15.
Long-term measurement of carbon metabolism of old-growth forests is critical to predict their behaviors and to reduce the uncertainties of carbon accounting under changing climate. Eddy covariance technology was applied to investigate the long-term carbon exchange over a 200 year-old Chinese broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest in the Changbai Mountains (128°28′E and 42°24′N, Jilin Province, P. R. China) since August 2002. On the data obtained with open-path eddy covariance system and CO2 profile measurement system from Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2004, this paper reports (i) annual and seasonal variation of F NEE, F GPP and R E; (ii) regulation of environmental factors on phase and amplitude of ecosystem CO2 uptake and release Corrections due to storage and friction velocity were applied to the eddy carbon flux.LAI and soil temperature determined the seasonal and annual dynamics of FGPP and RE separately. VPD and air temperature regulated ecosystem photosynthesis at finer scales in growing seasons. Water condition at the root zone exerted a significant influence on ecosystem maintenance carbon metabolism of this forest in winter.The forest was a net sink of atmospheric CO2 and sequestered ?449 g C·m?2 during the study period; ?278 and ?171 gC·m?2 for 2003 and 2004 respectively. F GPP and F RE over 2003 and 2004 were ?1332, ?1294 g C·m?2. and 1054, 1124 g C·m?2 respectively. This study shows that old-growth forest can be a strong net carbon sink of atmospheric CO2.There was significant seasonal and annual variation in carbon metabolism. In winter, there was weak photosynthesis while the ecosystem emitted CO2. Carbon exchanges were active in spring and fall but contributed little to carbon sequestration on an annual scale. The summer is the most significant season as far as ecosystem carbon balance is concerned. The 90 days of summer contributed 66.9, 68.9% of F GPP, and 60.4, 62.1% of R E of the entire year.  相似文献   

16.
The dynamics of the system of field-aligned currents (FACs) and closing ionospheric Pedersen currents is considered with the use of original processing methods and the data from four substorms of different types. The total current system comprises of two parts. One is the well-known substorm current wedge (SCW) system, in which the zonal (westward ) current closes FACs in the R1 zone (region). The component 2 consists of two pairs of meridional currents flowing equatorward and poleward in the R1 region and creating regions R0 and R2 (according to the classification of Iijima and Potemra). It is shown that the total FAC of the disturbed magnetosphere–ionosphere system is dominated by the contribution of component 2, which contradicts the original version of the SCW model but is consistent with new data. The quantitative characteristics of the dawn–dusk asymmetry are determined for the FAC distribution in the ionosphere for each substorm. It is shown that the ratio of the average intensities of FACs in the regions R0 and R2 was IR0/IR2 ≥ 0.4, which contradicts the popular opinion that there are no FACs in the polar cap. In addition, a relatively rare event of the simultaneous start of the substorm explosive phase and the SSC caused by the dynamic impact of the solar wind when the polar cap expands (rather than compresses as usual) is considered.  相似文献   

17.
Solutions of P-SV equations of motion in a homogeneous transversely isotropic elastic layer contain a factor exp(±ν j z), where z is the vertical coordinate and j?=?1, 2. For computing Rayleigh wave dispersion in a multi-layered half space, ν j is computed at each layer. For a given phase velocity (c), ν j becomes complex depending on the transversely isotropic parameters. When ν j is complex, classical Rayleigh waves do not exist and generalised Rayleigh waves propagate along a path inclined to the interface. We use transversely isotropic parameters as α H , β V , ξ, ? and η and find their limits beyond which ν j becomes complex. It is seen that ν j depends on ? and η, but does not depend on ξ. The complex ν j occurs when ? is small and η is large. For a given c/β V , the region of complex ν j in a ? -η plane increases with the increase of α H /β V . Further, for a given α H /β V , the complex region of ν j increases significantly with the decrease of c/β V . This study is useful to compute dispersion parameters of Rayleigh waves in a layered medium.  相似文献   

18.
During the ruptures of an earthquake,the strain energy.△E,.will be transferred into,at least,three parts,i.e..the seismic radiation energy(E_s),fracture energy(E_g),and frictional energy(E_f),that is,△E = E_s + E_g + E_f.Friction,which is represented by a velocity- and state-dependent friction law by some researchers,controls the three parts.One of the main parameters of the law is the characteristic slip displacement.D_c.It is significant and necessary to evaluate the reliable value of D_c from observed and inverted seismic data.Since D_c controls the radiation efficiency.η_R = E_s/(E_s+ E_g),the value of η_r is a good constraint of estimating D_c.Integrating observed data and inverted results of source parameters from recorded seismograms.the values of E_s and E_g of an earthquake can be measured,thus leading to the value of η_R.The constraint used to estimate the reliable value of D_c will be described in this work.An example of estimates of D_c.based on the observed and inverted values of source parameters of the September 20,1999 M_S 7.6 Chi-Chi(Ji-Ji).Taiwan region,earthquake will be presented.  相似文献   

19.
We made an attempt to assess the shear wave velocity values V S and, to a lesser extent, the V P values from ambient noise recordings in an array configuration. Five array sites were situated in the close proximity to borehole sites. Shear wave velocity profiles were modeled at these five array sites with the aid of two computational techniques, viz. spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) and H/V ellipticity. Out of these five array sites, velocity estimates could be reliably inferred at three locations. The shear wave velocities estimated by these methods are found to be quite consistent with each other. The computed V S values up to 30 m depth are in the range from 275 to 375 m/s in most of the sites, which implies prevalence of a low velocity zone at some pocket areas. The results were corroborated by evidence of site geology as well as geotechnical information.  相似文献   

20.
We present the seismic source zoning of the tectonically active Greater Kashmir territory of the Northwestern Himalaya and seismicity analysis (Gutenberg-Richter parameters) and maximum credible earthquake (m max) estimation of each zone. The earthquake catalogue used in the analysis is an extensive one compiled from various sources which spans from 1907 to 2012. Five seismogenic zones were delineated, viz. Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Karakorum Seismic Zone, Kohistan Seismic Zone, Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. Then, the seismicity analysis and maximum credible earthquake estimation were carried out for each zone. The low b value (<1.0) indicates a higher stress regime in all the zones except Nanga Parbat Syntaxis Seismic Zone and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. The m max was estimated following three different methodologies, the fault parameter approach, convergence rates using geodetic measurements, and the probabilistic approach using the earthquake catalogue and is estimated to be M w 7.7, M w 8.5, and M w 8.1, respectively. The maximum credible earthquake (m max) estimated for each zone shows that Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis Seismic Zone has the highest m max of M w 8.1 (±0.36), which is espoused by the historical 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M w 7.6 as well as the recent 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake of M w 7.6. The variation in the estimated m max by the above discussed methodologies is obvious, as the definition and interpretation of the m max change with the method. Interestingly, historical archives (～900 years) do not speak of a great earthquake in this region, which is attributed to the complex and unique tectonic and geologic setup of the Kashmir Himalaya. The convergence is this part of the Himalaya is distributed not only along the main boundary faults but also along the various active out-of-sequence faults as compared to the Central Himalaya, where it is mainly adjusted along the main boundary fault.  相似文献   

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