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信息融合是现代信息技术与多学科交叉、综合、延拓产生的新系统科学研究方向。本文介绍了信息融合概念,研究了信息融合的Dempster—Shafer证据推理方法,给出了利用信息融合技术进行油气预测的方法,并进行了数值模拟资料处理。处理结果表明,信息融合技术在油气预测中具有广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
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总结了目前常用的结构化网格及其局限性,分析了非结构化网格对复杂地质体边界的适应性和Delaunay三角化算法及其网格加密策略,提出了一种新的局部节点加密方法,实现了对复杂模型的完全非结构化四面体全自动剖分,给出了三维直流电阻率模拟中四面体网格的质量评价标准和最优指标.计算和分析表明,数值解在点电流源及附近的奇异区精度最低,网格加密策略可以有效地减少其影响,极大地提高数值解的精度.本文提出的局部节点加密策略计算量最小,对精度的改善也优于经典方法.在精度要求苛刻或模型十分复杂时,局部体积加密策略和二次单元是高精度模拟的可靠保证. 相似文献
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基于离散控制理论,结合CR法和RST法提出一种无条件稳定的动力学显式新算法。以算法精度和稳定性为条件,通过离散传递函数推导参数表达式和极点,使得新算法可满足零振幅衰减率和零周期延长率。算法参数α和γ作为传递格式选择参数,当α和γ分别取1时,新算法对应CR法和RST法的位移速度表达式。对新算法的精度和稳定性理论分析表明:新算法可满足无振幅衰减和周期延长,且对于线性系统和非线性刚度软化系统为无条件稳定,对非线性刚度硬化系统为条件稳定,并给出了非线性刚度硬化系统的稳定性范围。算例分析验证了新算法的精度和稳定性,证明提出的新算法是可靠有效的。 相似文献
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In this paper, a new index is proposed for the selection of the best regional frequency analysis method. First, based on the theory of reliability, the new selective index is developed. The variances of three regional T‐year event estimators are then derived. The proposed methodology is applied to an actual watershed. For each regional method, the reliability of various T‐year regional estimates is computed. Finally, the reliability‐based selective index graph is constructed from which the best regional method can be determined. In addition, the selection result is compared with that based on the traditional index, root mean square error. The proposed new index is recommended as an alternative to the existing indices such as root mean square error, because the influence of uncertainty and the accuracy of estimates are considered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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为提高基于模态参数的损伤识别方法的损伤敏感性和噪声鲁棒性,将多源数据融合技术引入到苏通大桥主梁损伤定位方法中。基于D-S证据理论对模态柔度和模态应变能指标进行数据融合,并以苏通大桥扁平钢箱梁为分析对象,对融合后损伤定位指标的应用效果进行了讨论。结果表明：基于数据融合的损伤定位方法具有较强的损伤敏感性,只需要较少的低阶模态信息就能识别主梁的早期损伤;数据融合后,损伤定位指标可以在较强的噪声环境下准确地识别斜拉桥钢箱梁的损伤,具有较好的工程实用性。 相似文献
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The precise time step integration method proposed for linear time-invariant homogeneous dynamic systems can provide precise numerical results that approach an exact solution at the integration points. However, difficulty arises when the algorithm is used for non-homogeneous dynamic systems, due to the inverse matrix calculation and the simulation accuracy of the applied loading. By combining the Gaussian quadrature method and state space theory with the calculation technique of matrix exponential function in the precise time step integration method, a new modified precise time step integration method （e.g., an algorithm with an arbitrary order of accuracy） is proposed. In the new method, no inverse matrix calculation or simulation of the applied loading is needed, and the computing efficiency is improved. In particular, the proposed method is independent of the quality of the matrix H. If the matrix H is singular or nearly singular, the advantage of the method is remarkable. The numerical stability of the proposed algorithm is discussed and a numerical example is given to demonstrate the validity and efficiency of the algorithm. 相似文献
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This paper presents a hybrid information fusion approach that integrates the cloud model and the D–S evidence theory to perceiving safety risks using sensor data under uncertainty. The cloud model provides an uncertain transforming tool between qualitative concepts and their quantitative expressions and uses the measurement of correlation to construct Basic Probability Assignments. An improved evidence aggregation strategy that combines the Dempster’ rule and the weighted mean rule is developed to get rid of counter-intuitive dilemma existing in a combination of high-conflict evidence. A three-layer information fusion framework consisting of sensor fusion, factor fusion, and area fusion is proposed to synthesize multi-source information to get the final fusion results. The developed cloud D–S approach is applied to the assessment of the safety of a real tailings dam in operation in China as a case study. Data information acquired from 28 monitoring sensors is fused in a continuous manner in order to obtain the overall safety level of the tailings dam. Results indicate that the developed approach is capable of achieving multi-layer information fusion and identifying global sensitivities of input factors under uncertainty. The developed approach proves to perform a strong robustness and fault-tolerant capacity, and can be used by practitioners in the industry as a decision tool to perceive and anticipate the safety risks in tailings dams. 相似文献
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The first order reliability method (FORM) has been widely used in probabilistic modelling of groundwater problems. The FORM approach requires an iterative optimization procedure to find out the system failure point (the most probable point).The advantages of this approach are that it does not require many computations in comparison with other methods when applied to simple problems, and it produces reasonably accurate results. However, it has been found that the computations of FORM can equal or exceed that of other methods in case of large number of variables.In this paper, a new implementation of FORM was proposed with more efficiency and accuracy than the traditional FORM method. In the proposed approach, automatic differentiation is used to obtain the gradient vector of the limit state function, which is required by FORM, instead of using finite difference estimation. This way, the first order derivative was obtained with a very good accuracy, and with less computational effort. Based on the obtained results, it is found that the proposed implementation of FORM is a very good tool for probabilistic risk assessment and uncertainty analysis in groundwater problems. 相似文献
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A new approach to evaluate the extreme value distribution （EVD） of the response and reliability of general multi-DOF nonlinear stochastic structures is proposed. The approach is based on the recently developed probability density evolution method, which enables the instantaneous probability density functions of the stochastic responses to be captured. In the proposed method, a virtual stochastic process is first constructed to satisfy the condition that the extreme value of the response equals the value of the constructed process at a certain instant of time. The probability density evolution method is then applied to evaluate the instantaneous probability density function of the response, yielding the EVD. The reliability is therefore available through a simple integration over the safe domain. A numerical algorithm is developed using the Number Theoretical Method to select the discretized representative points. Further, a hyper-ball is imposed to sieve the points from the preceding point set in the hypercube. In the numerical examples, the EVD of random variables is evaluated and compared with the analytical solution. A frame structure is analyzed to capture the EVD of the response and the dynamic reliability. The investigations indicate that the proposed approach provides reasonable accuracy and efficiency. 相似文献
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PP波和PS波联合反演方法作为有效的地震技术,比单纯纵波反演精度要高,能够提高地震储层识别的精度.以Russell近似理论为基础,推导了新的转换波AVO近似公式,双层模型界面的反射特征数值模拟显示,新公式具有较高的近似精度,且具备直接反演流体因子f、剪切模量μ和密度ρ等参数的优势,有效避免间接反演带来的误差.结合纵横波联合反演理论,提出了基于贝叶斯理论的新型联合反演算法.在实际应用中,对纵波和转换波角道集进行同相轴匹配处理,综合利用纵波和转换波资料携带的信息,实现基于Russell近似的多波联合反演.模型数据和实际资料测试结果表明,反演结果与真实值或测井结果匹配度较高,证实该方法真实有效. 相似文献
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传统基于信号传感技术的震区人员搜救方法,利用惯性导航传感技术融合移动距离和方向角对待搜救人员进行定位,容易受到天气状况不理想以及局部遮挡的影响,其搜救效率和精度低。提出基于视觉图像的震区人员搜救方法,利用图像采集设备采集震区初始视觉图像,采用小波降噪法降噪处理,提升可辨程度。通过色彩对比方法提取降噪后震区人员视觉图像的特征,并与震区原始图像特征对比,获取震区待搜救人员候选图像;根据候选图像分别采用Kalman滤波跟踪算法和Mean shift跟踪算法,在天气状况不理想以及局部遮挡的复杂震区环境中跟踪搜救人员目标。实验结果表明,所提方法查全率保持在98.5%以上,平均准确率约为98%,人员搜救平均时间约为23 s,说明所提方法能够进行高效、准确的震区人员搜救。 相似文献
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Advance first order second moment (AFOSM) method for single reservoir operation reliability analysis: a case study 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
A. Ganji L. Jowkarshorijeh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(1):33-42
Reservoir system reliability is the ability of reservoir to perform its required functions under stated conditions for a specified
period of time. In classical method of reservoir system reliability analysis, the operation policy is used in a simple simulation
model, considering the historical/synthetic inflow series and a number of physical bounds on a reservoir system. This type
of reliability analysis assumes a reservoir system as fully failed or functioning, called binary state assumption. A number
of researchers from various research backgrounds have shown that the binary state assumption in the traditional reliability
theory is not extensively acceptable. Our approach to tackle the present problem space is to implement the algorithm of advance
first order second moment (AFOSM) method. In this new method, the inflow and reservoir storage are considered as uncertain
variables. The mean, variance and covariance of uncertain variables are determined using moment values of reservoir state
variables. For this purpose, a stochastic optimization model developed based on the constraint state formulation is applied.
The proposed model of reliability analysis is used to a real case study in Iran. As a result, monthly probabilities of water
allocation were computed from AFOSM method, and the outputs were compared with those from Monte Carlo method. The comparison
shows that the outputs from AFOSM method are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. In term of practical use of this
study, the proposed method is appropriate to determine the monthly probability of failure in water allocation without the
aid of simulation. 相似文献
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In this paper we present a stochastic model reduction method for efficiently solving nonlinear unconfined flow problems in heterogeneous random porous media. The input random fields of flow model are parameterized in a stochastic space for simulation. This often results in high stochastic dimensionality due to small correlation length of the covariance functions of the input fields. To efficiently treat the high-dimensional stochastic problem, we extend a recently proposed hybrid high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) technique to high-dimensional problems with multiple random input fields and integrate it with a sparse grid stochastic collocation method (SGSCM). Hybrid HDMR can decompose the high-dimensional model into a moderate M-dimensional model and a few one-dimensional models. The moderate dimensional model only depends on the most M important random dimensions, which are identified from the full stochastic space by sensitivity analysis. To extend the hybrid HDMR, we consider two different criteria for sensitivity test. Each of the derived low-dimensional stochastic models is solved by the SGSCM. This leads to a set of uncoupled deterministic problems at the collocation points, which can be solved by a deterministic solver. To demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method, a few numerical experiments are carried out for the unconfined flow problems in heterogeneous porous media with different correlation lengths. The results show that a good trade-off between computational complexity and approximation accuracy can be achieved for stochastic unconfined flow problems by selecting a suitable number of the most important dimensions in the M-dimensional model of hybrid HDMR. 相似文献
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大型城市管网抗震可靠性分析与优化 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
本文提出了地震作用下供水系统的渗漏模型,发展了地震后带渗漏管网的流分析技术,结合一次二阶矩方法获得了地震后供水管网的功能可靠度。针对供燃气管网系统则提出了一类高效精确的大型网络抗震连通可靠度分析的概率解析算法———递推分解算法。以上述管网抗震可靠性分析理论为基础,分别发展了基于模拟退火算法的供水系统网络拓扑优化分析理论和基于遗传算法的供燃气网络系统拓扑优化理论。 相似文献
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合成三维横向非均匀介质远震体波接收函数的Maslov方法 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
三维横向非均匀介质远震体波接收函数的合成算法对于三维介质远震体波接收函数研究至关重要．本文发展了基于Ｍａｓｌｏｖ理论的横向非均匀介质接收函数合成算法,针对远震体波接收函数计算的特点,利用遗传算法完成三维动力学射线追踪,并采用递归算法组织射线的追踪过程,从而在保证追踪精度的同时提高了射线追踪的效率,并可完全避免传统射线追踪过程中的射线编码问题．正演计算结果表明,此法是一种高效、实用的三维横向非均匀介质接收函数计算方法． 相似文献
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地震数据中发育的层间多次波是影响速度分析和偏移成像的精度和可靠性的关键.通常情况下,层间多次波的动校正量、叠加速度和频率与一次波并无明显差异,从而对识别、预测和压制多次波带来了极大挑战.传统虚同相轴方法基于物理图像和定性公式,其预测的层间多次波振幅和相位精度难以满足实际需求,造成了其对匹配算法的过度依赖.本文针对传统虚同相轴方法的理论缺陷和计算精度问题,通过理论推导得到了新的自适应虚同相轴方法.相比于传统方法,自适应虚同相轴方法能够显著提高压制多次波能力,同时减少对匹配算法的依赖.本文给出了自适应虚同相轴方法的推导过程,并运用一维和二维模型算例验证了方法相较于传统虚同相轴方法的多次波预测精度优势.通过在PLUTO模型和实际陆地地震数据上的应用实例,证明了本文新研究的自适应虚同相轴方法对去除层间多次波,恢复并突出目标储层同相轴,提高地震成像分辨率的显著作用. 相似文献
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作为近地表横波速度结构成像的主要手段之一,面波多道分析法的正问题研究对现场观测系统设计及后续反演计算具有重要意义.目前面波频散曲线的正演主要分为两类:一是对水平层状介质中面波的本征值问题进行求解,该类方法计算效率高但较难考虑地下介质在横向上的不均匀性;二是基于波动方程的全波场模拟,该类方法在理论上可考虑任意复杂的地质模型但计算成本相对较高.本文基于振幅归一化加权的聚束分析,提出了一种适用于横向非均匀介质模型的多道瑞雷波频散曲线正演方法.首先,基于聚束分析的计算公式推导得到了经振幅归一化加权后输出功率谱中相速度与局部相速度之间的关系,然后通过黄金分割极值搜索算法计算得到了多道瑞雷波数据的理论频散曲线.数值分析结果表明,该算法能够快速地实现横向非均匀介质中多道瑞雷波频散曲线的正演计算,所求取的频散曲线与采用二维弹性波时间域有限差分模拟分析得到的结果误差较小,这在一定程度上说明了该计算方法的可靠性,从而可为面波多道分析法中的观测系统快速优化设计以及横向非均匀介质中频散曲线的反演解释提供理论支撑. 相似文献