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1.
There is increased interest in the potential of tree planting to help mitigate flooding using nature-based solutions or natural flood management. However, many publications based upon catchment studies conclude that, as flood magnitude increases, benefit from forest cover declines and is insignificant for extreme flood events. These conclusions conflict with estimates of evaporation loss from forest plot observations of gross rainfall, through fall and stem flow. This study explores data from existing studies to assess the magnitudes of evaporation and attempts to identify the meteorological conditions under which they would be supported. This is achieved using rainfall event data collated from publications and data archives from studies undertaken in temperate environments around the world. The meteorological conditions required to drive the observed evaporation losses are explored theoretically using the Penman–Monteith equation. The results of this theoretical analysis are compared with the prevailing meteorological conditions during large and extreme rainfall events in mountainous regions of the United Kingdom to assess the likely significance of wet canopy evaporation loss. The collated dataset showed that event Ewc losses between approximately 2 and 38% of gross rainfall (1.5 to 39.4 mm day−1) have been observed during large rainfall events (up to 118 mm day−1) and that there are few data for extreme events (>150 mm day−1). Event data greater than 150 mm (reported separately) included similarly high percentage evaporation losses. Theoretical estimates of wet-canopy evaporation indicated that, to reproduce the losses towards the high end of these observations, relative humidity and the aerodynamic resistance for vapour transport needed to be lower than approximately 97.5% and 0.5 to 2 s m−1 respectively. Surface meteorological data during large and extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom suggest that conditions favourable for high wet-canopy evaporation are not uncommon and indicate that significant evaporation losses during large and extreme events are possible but not for all events and not at all locations. Thus the disparity with the results from catchment studies remains.  相似文献   

2.
Jia  Zuo  Ren  Fumin  Zhang  Dalin  Ding  Chenchen  Yang  Mingjen  Feng  Tian  Chen  Boyu  Yang  Hui 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2020,63(1):27-36
Recently, a track-similarity-based Dynamical-Statistical Ensemble Forecast(LTP_DSEF) model has been developed in an attempt to predict heavy rainfall from Landfalling Tropical cyclones(LTCs). In this study, the LTP_DSEF model is applied to predicting heavy precipitation associated with 10 LTCs occurring over China in 2018. The best forecast scheme of the model with optimized parameters is obtained after testing 3452 different schemes for the 10 LTCs. Then, its performance is compared to that of three operational dynamical models. Results show that the LTP_DSEF model has advantages over the three dynamical models in predicting heavy precipitation accumulated after landfall, especially for rainfall amounts greater than 250 mm. The model also provides superior or slightly inferior heavy rainfall forecast performance for individual LTCs compared to the three dynamical models. In particular, the LTP_DSEF model can predict heavy rainfall with valuable threat scores associated with certain LTCs, which is not possible with the three dynamical models. Moreover, the model can reasonably capture the distribution of heavier accumulated rainfall, albeit with widespread coverage compared to observations. The preliminary results suggest that the LTP_DSEF model can provide useful forecast guidance for heavy accumulated rainfall of LTCs despite its limited variables included in the model.  相似文献   

3.
The near-sea surface meteorological conditions associated with the Mediterranean heavy precipitation events constitute, on a short time scale, a strong forcing on the ocean mixed layer. This study addresses the question of the optimal time frequency of the atmospheric forcing to drive an ocean model in order to make it able to capture the fine scale ocean mixed layer response to severe meteorological conditions. The coupling time frequency should allow the ocean model to reproduce the formation of internal low-salty boundary layers due to sudden input of intense precipitation, as well as the cooling and deepening of the ocean mixed layer through large latent heat fluxes and stress under the intense low-level jet associated with these events. In this study, the one-dimensional ocean model is driven by 2.4-km atmospheric simulated fields on a case of Mediterranean heavy precipitation, varying the time resolution of the atmospheric forcing. The results show that using a finer temporal resolution than 1 h for the atmospheric forcing is not necessary, but a coarser temporal resolution (3 or 6 h) modifies the event course and intensity perceived by the ocean. Consequently, when using a too coarse temporal resolution forcing, typically 6 h, the ocean model fails to reproduce the ocean mixed layer fine scale response under the heavy rainfall pulses and the strong wind gusts.  相似文献   

4.
Motivated by the need for rainfall prediction models in data scarce areas, we adapted a simple storage based cloud model to use routinely available thermal infrared (TIR) data. The data is obtained from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) of the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG-2) satellite. Model inputs are TIR cloud top temperatures at 15-min intervals and observations of pressure, temperature, and dew point temperatures from ground-based stations at 30-min intervals. The sensitivity of the parsimonious cloud model to its parameters is evaluated by a regional sensitivity analysis (RSA) which suggests that model performance is sensitive to few parameters. The model was calibrated and tested for four convective events that were observed during the wet season in the source basin of the Upper Blue Nile River. The difference between the simulated and the observed depth of the selected rain events varies between 0.2 and 1.8 mm with a root mean square error of smaller than 0.5 mm for each event. It is shown that the updraft velocity characteristic can provide relevant information for rainfall forecasting. The simulation results suggest the effectiveness of the model approach as evaluated by selected performance measures. The various characteristics of the rainfall events as simulated generally match to observed counter parts when ground-based and remote sensing observations are combined.  相似文献   

5.
Rain‐on‐snow events have generated major floods around the world, particularly in coastal, mountainous regions. Most previous studies focused on a limited number of major rain‐on‐snow events or were based primarily on model results, largely due to a lack of long‐term records from lysimeters or other instrumentation for quantifying event water balances. In this analysis, we used records from five automated snow pillow sites in south coastal British Columbia, Canada, to reconstruct event water balances for 286 rain‐on‐snow events over a 10‐year period. For large rain‐on‐snow events (event rainfall >40 mm), snowmelt enhanced the production of water available for run‐off (WAR) by approximately 25% over rainfall alone. For smaller events, a range of antecedent and meteorological factors influenced WAR generation, particularly the antecedent liquid water content of the snowpack. Most large events were associated with atmospheric rivers. Rainfall dominated WAR generation during autumn and winter events, whereas snowmelt dominated during spring and summer events. In the majority of events, the sensible heat of rain contributed less than 10% of the total energy consumed by snowmelt. This analysis illustrated the importance of understanding the amount of rainfall occurring at high elevations during rain‐on‐snow events in mountainous regions.  相似文献   

6.
Extreme floods are the most widespread and often the most fatal type of natural hazard experienced in Europe, particularly in upland and mountainous areas. These ‘flash flood’ type events are particularly dangerous because extreme rainfall totals in a short space of time can lead to very high flow velocities and little or no time for flood warning. Given the danger posed by extreme floods, there are concerns that catastrophic hydrometeorological events could become more frequent in a warming world. However, analysis of longer term flood frequency is often limited by the use of short instrumental flow records (last 30–40 years) that do not adequately cover alternating flood‐rich and flood‐poor periods over the last 2 to 3 centuries. In contrast, this research extends the upland flood series of South West England (Dartmoor) back to ca AD 1800 using lichenometry. Results show that the period 1820 to mid‐1940s was characterized by widespread flooding, with particularly large and frequent events in the mid‐to‐late 19th and early 20th centuries. Since ca 1850 to 1900, there has been a general decline in flood magnitude that was particularly marked after the 1930s/mid‐1940s. Local meteorological records show that: (1) historical flood‐rich periods on Dartmoor were associated with high annual, seasonal and daily rainfall totals in the last quarter of the 19th century and between 1910 and 1946, related to sub‐decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and receipt of cyclonic and southerly weather types over the southwest peninsula; and (2) the incidence of heavy daily rainfall declined notably after 1946, similar to sedimentary archives of flooding. The peak period of flooding on Dartmoor predates the beginning of gauged flow records, which has practical implications for understanding and managing flood risk on rivers that drain Dartmoor. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Based on the observational data in summer, the variations of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of the daily rainfall over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (LYRV) were studied by using the non-integer spectrum analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1979–2005 were analyzed by principal oscillation pattern analysis (POP) to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of principal ISO patterns of the global circulation. The relationships of these ISO patterns to the rainfall ISO and the heavy precipitation process over LYRV were also discussed. It is found that the rainfall over LYRV in May–August is mainly of periodic oscillations of 10–20, 20–30 and 60–70 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 20–30-day oscillation has a strongly positive correlation with the number of the heavy precipitation process. Two modes (POP1, POP2) are revealed by POP for the 20–30-day oscillation of the global 850 hPa geopotential height. One is a circumglobal teleconnection wave train in the middle latitude of the Southern Hemisphere (SCGT) with an eastward propagation, and the other is the southward propagation pattern in the tropical western Pacific (TWP). The POP modes explain 7.72% and 7.66% of the variance, respectively. These two principal ISO patterns are closely linked to the low frequency rainfall and heavy precipitation process over LYRV, in which the probability for the heavy precipitation process over LYRV is 54.9% and 60.4% for the positive phase of the imaginary part of POP1 and real part of POP2, respectively. Furthermore, the models of the global atmospheric circulation for the 20–30-day oscillation in association with or without the heavy precipitation process over LYRV during the Northern Hemisphere summer are set up by means of the composite analysis method. Most of the heavy precipitation processes over LYRV appear in Phase 4 of SCGT or Phase 6 of TWP. When the positive phases of 20–30-day oscillations for the rainfall over LYRV are associated with (without) the heavy precipitation process, a strong westerly stream appears (disappears) from the Arabian Sea via India and Bay of Bengal (BOB) to southern China and LYRV for the global 850 hPa filtered wind field during Phase 4 of SCGT. This situation is favorable (unfavorable) for the forming of the heavy precipitation process over LYRV. Similarly, a strong (weak) western wind belt forms from India through BOB to southern China and LYRV and the subtropical northwestern Pacific and central and eastern equatorial Pacific during Phase 6 of TWP for the cases with (without) the heavy precipitation process. The evolutions of these ISO patterns related to the 20–30-day oscillation are excited by either the interaction of extratropical circulation in both hemispheres or the heat source forcing in Asia monsoon domain and internal interaction of circulation in East Asia. These two global circulation models might therefore provide valuable information for the extended-range forecastof the heavy precipitation process over LYRV during the 10–30 days.  相似文献   

8.
S. Mohan  P. K. Sahoo 《水文研究》2008,22(6):863-872
In Part 1 we demonstrated the applicability of stochastic models to predicting the characteristics of point drought events within any planning period by means of a case study (Mohan S, Sahoo PK (2007) Hydrological Processes 21 : this issue). In addition, studies on regional droughts are important in the context of regional level planning and evolving management strategies. The small number of drought events from a particular streamflow or rainfall series, when subjected to statistical analysis in order to predict future occurrences, produces results that are not very reliable. To overcome this difficulty, we propose using a long sequence of synthetically generated annual rainfall series at various rain‐gauge stations of a region, and multiyear regional droughts were derived from both historic and generated series. The key parameters for a successful regional multiyear drought study are the critical area ratio and the critical level, and the area affected by the drought can be ascertained using these parameters. The important regional drought parameters were determined and their suitable probability distributions were arrived at by studying a total of nine possible probability models; these models can be used in predicting the longest regional drought duration and the greatest regional drought severity with a given return period. The effect of change of critical parameters on the regional drought parameters is also studied and reported. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
A multifractal analysis of hourly and daily rainfall data recorded at four locations of Andalusia (southern Spain) was carried out in order to study the temporal structure of rainfall and to find differences between both time resolutions. The results show that an algebraic tail is required to fit the probability distribution of the extreme rain events for all the cases. The presence of a multifractal phase transition associated with a critical moment in the empirical moments scaling exponent function was also detected. Both facts indicate that the rainfall process is a case of self‐organized criticality (SOC) dynamics, although the results differ for each place according to the time resolution and the nature of the rainfall, either convective or frontal. This SOC behaviour is related to a statistically steady state that implies the presence of clusterization in the time‐occurrence sequence of rain events. Such fluctuations have been shown by performing the analysis of the Fano and Allan factors and the count‐based periodogram. The values for the “synoptic maximum”, the typical lifetime of planetary scale atmospheric structures, have been obtained for each place and some important periodicities have been detected when dealing with extremes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
High-frequency stable isotope data are useful for validating atmospheric moisture circulation models and provide improved understanding of the mechanisms controlling isotopic compositions in tropical rainfall. Here, we present a near-continuous 6-month record of O- and H-isotope compositions in both water vapour and daily rainfall from Northeast Australia measured by laser spectroscopy. The data set spans both wet and dry seasons to help address a significant data and knowledge gap in the southern hemisphere tropics. We interpret the isotopic records for water vapour and rainfall in the context of contemporaneous meteorological observations. Surface air moisture provided near-continuous tracking of the links between isotopic variations and meteorological events on local to regional spatial scales. Power spectrum analysis of the isotopic variation showed a range of significant periodicities, from hourly to monthly scales, and cross-wavelet analysis identified significant regions of common power for hourly averaged water vapour isotopic composition and relative humidity, wind direction, and solar radiation. Relative humidity had the greatest subdiurnal influence on isotopic composition. On longer timescales (weeks to months), isotope variability was strongly correlated with both wind direction and relative humidity. The high-frequency records showed diurnal isotopic variations in O- and H-isotope compositions due to local dew formation and, for deuterium excess, as a result of evapotranspiration. Several significant negative isotope anomalies on a daily scale were associated with the activity of regional mesoscale convective systems and the occurrence of two tropical cyclones. Calculated air parcel back trajectories identified the predominant moisture transport paths from the Southwest Pacific Ocean, whereas moisture transport from northerly directions occurred mainly during the wet season monsoonal airflow. Water vapour isotope compositions reflected the same meteorological events as recorded in rainfall isotopes but provided much more detailed and continuous information on atmospheric moisture cycling than the intermittent isotopic record provided by rainfall. Improved global coverage of stable isotope data for atmospheric water vapour is likely to improve simulations of future changes to climate drivers of the hydrological cycle.  相似文献   

12.
In the work discussed in this paper we considered total ozone time series over Kolkata (22°34′10.92″N, 88°22′10.92″E), an urban area in eastern India. Using cloud cover, average temperature, and rainfall as the predictors, we developed an artificial neural network, in the form of a multilayer perceptron with sigmoid non-linearity, for prediction of monthly total ozone concentrations from values of the predictors in previous months. We also estimated total ozone from values of the predictors in the same month. Before development of the neural network model we removed multicollinearity by means of principal component analysis. On the basis of the variables extracted by principal component analysis, we developed three artificial neural network models. By rigorous statistical assessment it was found that cloud cover and rainfall can act as good predictors for monthly total ozone when they are considered as the set of input variables for the neural network model constructed in the form of a multilayer perceptron. In general, the artificial neural network has good potential for predicting and estimating monthly total ozone on the basis of the meteorological predictors. It was further observed that during pre-monsoon and winter seasons, the proposed models perform better than during and after the monsoon.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract

Southern Ontario, Canada, has been impacted in recent years by many heavy rainfall and flooding events that have exceeded existing historical estimates of infrastructure design rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values. These recent events and the limited number of short-duration recording raingauges have prompted the need to research the climatology of heavy rainfall events within the study area, review the existing design IDF methodologies, and evaluate alternative approaches to traditional point-based heavy rainfall IDF curves, such as regional IDF design values. The use of additional data and the regional frequency analysis methodology were explored for the study area, with the objective of validating identified clusters or homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall amounts through Ward's method. As the results illustrate, nine homogeneous regions were identified in Southern Ontario using the annual maximum series (AMS) for daily and 24-h rainfall data from climate and rate-of-rainfall or tipping bucket raingauge (TBRG) stations, respectively. In most cases, the generalized extreme value and logistic distributions were identified as the statistical distributions that provide the best fit for the 24-h and sub-daily rainfall data in the study area. A connection was observed between extreme rainfall variability, temporal scale of heavy rainfall events and location of each homogeneous region. Moreover, the analysis indicated that scaling factors cannot be used reliably to estimate sub-daily and sub-hourly values from 24- and 1-h data in Southern Ontario.

Citation Paixao, E., Auld, H., Mirza, M.M.Q., Klaassen, J. & Shephard, M.W. (2011) Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario, Canada. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1067–1089.  相似文献   

14.
Stemflow is an important hydrological process of rainfall partitioning, but it has rarely been studied in the alpine riparian shrub Myricaria squamosa in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. This study aimed to measure and model the stemflow of the unstudied M. squamosa and to identify the key controlling factors of stemflow yield. Correlations and stepwise regression analysis between stemflow and five meteorological and ten biological factors indicated that the rainfall amount and the aboveground biomass were the best variables for modelling and predicting stemflow. We used the best model to estimate annual and stand stemflow, as well as rainfall threshold for stemflow generation. Annual stemflow accounted for 2.3 to 10.2% of the annual rainfall amount, varying with different vegetation coverage and leaf area index. The annual stemflow percentage increased linearly with the annual total rainfall amount of events > 7.3 mm. For M. squamosa stands, branches with diameters of 10 to 25 mm were less frequent but contributed much more stemflow than branches with diameters smaller than 10 mm. The stemflow percentage increased sharply with increasing rainfall amounts when the rainfall amounts were less than 4, 8 or 13 mm for the M. squamosa stands with coverage of 32.6, 47.6 or 56.1%, respectively, but increased gently when the rainfall amounts were greater than these values. The rainfall threshold for stemflow generation decreased as the branch aboveground biomass increased, and the estimated median value of the rainfall threshold was 0.8 mm for M. squamosa stands, with a range of 3.0 to 0.4 mm for branches weighing 10 to 300 g, respectively. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Jia Liu  Michaela Bray  Dawei Han 《水文研究》2013,27(25):3627-3640
The mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model is gaining popularity among the hydrometeorological community in providing high‐resolution rainfall forecasts at the catchment scale. Although the performance of the model has been verified in capturing the physical processes of severe storm events, the modelling accuracy is negatively affected by significant errors in the initial conditions used to drive the model. Several meteorological investigations have shown that the assimilation of real‐time observations, especially the radar data can help improve the accuracy of the rainfall predictions given by mesoscale NWP models. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of data assimilation for hydrological applications at the catchment scale. Radar reflectivity together with surface and upper‐air meteorological observations is assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the three‐dimensional variational data‐assimilation technique. Improvement of the rainfall accumulation and its temporal variation after data assimilation is examined for four storm events in the Brue catchment (135.2 km2) located in southwest England. The storm events are selected with different rainfall distributions in space and time. It is found that the rainfall improvement is most obvious for the events with one‐dimensional evenness in either space or time. The effect of data assimilation is even more significant in the innermost domain which has the finest spatial resolution. However, for the events with two‐dimensional unevenness of rainfall, i.e. the rainfall is concentrated in a small area and in a short time period, the effect of data assimilation is not ideal. WRF fails in capturing the whole process of the highly convective storm with densely concentrated rainfall in a small area and a short time period. A shortened assimilation time interval together with more efficient utilisation of the weather radar data might help improve the effectiveness of data assimilation in such cases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×106 m 3/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.  相似文献   

17.
An attempt is made to evaluate the impact of the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation within the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) modeling system to simulate two heavy rainfall events which occured on 26–27 July 2005 and 27–30 July 2006. During the 26–27 July 2005 event, the unprecedented localized intense rainfall 90–100 cm was recorded over the northeast parts of Mumbai city; however, southern parts received only 10 cm. Model simulation with the data assimilation experiment is reasonably well predicted for the rainfall intensity (800 mm) in 24 h and with accurate location over Mumbai agreeing with observation. Divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture parameters are evaluated during the various stages of the event. It is noticed that maximum convergence and vorticity during the mature stage; at the same time the vertical velocity also follows a similar trend during the period in the assimilation experiment. Vorticity budget terms over the location of heavy rainfall revealed that the contribution of the positive tilting term produced positive vorticity which triggered the convection and negative contribution to vorticity from the tilting term to precede the dissipation of the system. Model simulations from the second rain event, the off-shore trough at sea level along the west coast of India, is well represented after assimilation of observations during day-1 and day-2 as compared to the control simulations; the orientation of the off-shore trough is well matched with that of the observed. The intensity and spatial distribution of the rainfall has considerably improved in the assimilation simulation. The statistical skill scores also revealed that the precipitation forecast during the period has appreciably improved due to assimilation of observations. The results of this study indicate a positive impact of the 3DVAR assimilation on the simulation of heavy rainfall events.  相似文献   

18.
A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area.The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×106 m 3/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.  相似文献   

19.
—Rainfall-triggered landslides constitute a serious hazard and an important geomorphic process in many parts of the world. Attempts have been made at various scales in a number of countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to identify patterns in behaviour and, ultimately, to define or calculate landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. This study was carried out in three landslide-prone regions in the North Island of New Zealand. Regional landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds were calculated using an empirical “Antecedent Daily Rainfall Model.” In this model, first introduced by, triggering rainfall conditions are represented by a combination of rainfall occurring in a period before the event (antecedent rainfall) and rainfall on the day of the event. A physically-based decay coefficient is derived for each region from the recessional behaviour of storm hydrographs and is used to produce an index for antecedent rainfall. Statistical techniques are employed to obtain the thresholds which best separate the rainfall conditions associated with landslide occurrence from those of non-occurrence or a given probability of occurrence.The resultant regional models are able to represent the probability of occurrence of landsliding events on the basis of rainfall conditions. The calculated thresholds show regional differences in susceptibility of a given landscape to landslide-triggering rainfall. These differences relate to both the landslide database and the difference of existing physical conditions between the regions.  相似文献   

20.
The raindrop impact and overland flow are two major factors causing soil detachment and particle transportation. In this study, the turbulent characteristics of the shallow rain‐impacted water flow were investigated using a 2‐D fibre‐optic laser Doppler velocimetry (FLDV) and an artificial rainfall simulator. The fluctuating turbulent shear stress was computed using digital data processing techniques. The experimental data showed that the Reynolds shear stress follows a probability distribution with heavy tails. The tail probability increases with an increase of rainfall intensity or raindrop diameter, and it decreases with an increase of Reynolds number. A modified empirical equation was derived using both the raindrop diameter and rainfall intensity as independent variables to provide a better prediction of the Darcy‐Weisbach friction coefficient f under rainfall conditions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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