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1.
Groundwater modeling is undergoing a change from traditional stand-alone studies toward being an integrated part of holistic water resources management procedures. This is illustrated by the development in Denmark, where comprehensive national databases for geologic borehole data, groundwater-related geophysical data, geologic models, as well as a national groundwater-surface water model have been established and integrated to support water management. This has enhanced the benefits of using groundwater models. Based on insight gained from this Danish experience, a scientifically realistic scenario for the use of groundwater modeling in 2020 has been developed, in which groundwater models will be a part of sophisticated databases and modeling systems. The databases and numerical models will be seamlessly integrated, and the tasks of monitoring and modeling will be merged. Numerical models for atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater processes will be coupled in one integrated modeling system that can operate at a wide range of spatial scales. Furthermore, the management systems will be constructed with a focus on building credibility of model and data use among all stakeholders and on facilitating a learning process whereby data and models, as well as stakeholders' understanding of the system, are updated to currently available information. The key scientific challenges for achieving this are (1) developing new methodologies for integration of statistical and qualitative uncertainty; (2) mapping geological heterogeneity and developing scaling methodologies; (3) developing coupled model codes; and (4) developing integrated information systems, including quality assurance and uncertainty information that facilitate active stakeholder involvement and learning.  相似文献   

2.
Stochastic modeling is a rapidly evolving, popular approach to the study of the uncertainty and heterogeneity of groundwater systems. However, the use of Monte Carlo‐type simulations to solve practical groundwater problems often encounters computational bottlenecks that hinder the acquisition of meaningful results. To improve the computational efficiency, a system that combines stochastic model generation with MODFLOW‐related programs and distributed parallel processing is investigated. The distributed computing framework, called the Java Parallel Processing Framework, is integrated into the system to allow the batch processing of stochastic models in distributed and parallel systems. As an example, the system is applied to the stochastic delineation of well capture zones in the Pinggu Basin in Beijing. Through the use of 50 processing threads on a cluster with 10 multicore nodes, the execution times of 500 realizations are reduced to 3% compared with those of a serial execution. Through this application, the system demonstrates its potential in solving difficult computational problems in practical stochastic modeling.  相似文献   

3.
Pump‐and‐treat systems can prevent the migration of groundwater contaminants and candidate systems are typically evaluated with groundwater models. Such models should be rigorously assessed to determine predictive capabilities and numerous tools and techniques for model assessment are available. While various assessment methodologies (e.g., model calibration, uncertainty analysis, and Bayesian inference) are well‐established for groundwater modeling, this paper calls attention to an alternative assessment technique known as screening‐level sensitivity analysis (SLSA). SLSA can quickly quantify first‐order (i.e., main effects) measures of parameter influence in connection with various model outputs. Subsequent comparisons of parameter influence with respect to calibration vs. prediction outputs can suggest gaps in model structure and/or data. Thus, while SLSA has received little attention in the context of groundwater modeling and remedial system design, it can nonetheless serve as a useful and computationally efficient tool for preliminary model assessment. To illustrate the use of SLSA in the context of designing groundwater remediation systems, four SLSA techniques were applied to a hypothetical, yet realistic, pump‐and‐treat case study to determine the relative influence of six hydraulic conductivity parameters. Considered methods were: Taguchi design‐of‐experiments (TDOE); Monte Carlo statistical independence (MCSI) tests; average composite scaled sensitivities (ACSS); and elementary effects sensitivity analysis (EESA). In terms of performance, the various methods identified the same parameters as being the most influential for a given simulation output. Furthermore, results indicate that the background hydraulic conductivity is important for predicting system performance, but calibration outputs are insensitive to this parameter (KBK). The observed insensitivity is attributed to a nonphysical specified‐head boundary condition used in the model formulation which effectively “staples” head values located within the conductivity zone. Thus, potential strategies for improving model predictive capabilities include additional data collection targeting the KBK parameter and/or revision of model structure to reduce the influence of the specified head boundary.  相似文献   

4.
1 INTRODUCTION Agricultural use of pesticides has been recognized as one of the important non-point pollution sources in the world, and the pesticide application to agricultural lands has led to large amounts of residues discharged into surface water through runoff (Leonard, 1990). There have been growing concerns about the fate and transport of pesticides in agricultural lands, due to the associated adverse impacts on water environment and human health (Agassi et al., 1995; Ng and Clegg…  相似文献   

5.
Groundwater models developed for specific sites generally become obsolete within a few years due to changes in: (1) modeling technology; (2) site/project personnel; (3) project funding; and (4) modeling objectives. Consequently, new models are sometimes developed for the same sites using the latest technology and data, but without potential knowledge gained from the prior models. When it occurs, this practice is particularly problematic because, although technology, data, and observed conditions change, development of the new numerical model may not consider the conceptual model's underpinnings. As a contrary situation, we present the unique case of a numerical flow and trichloroethylene (TCE) transport model that was first developed in 1993 and since revised and updated annually by the same personnel. The updates are prompted by an increase in the amount of data, exposure to a wider range of hydrologic conditions over increasingly longer timeframes, technological advances, evolving modeling objectives, and revised modeling methodologies. The history of updates shows smooth, incremental changes in the conceptual model and modeled aquifer parameters that result from both increase and decrease in complexity. Myriad modeling objectives have included demonstrating the ineffectiveness of a groundwater extraction/injection system, evaluating potential TCE degradation, locating new monitoring points, and predicting likelihood of exceedance of groundwater standards. The application emphasizes an original tenet of successful groundwater modeling: iterative adjustment of the conceptual model based on observations of actual vs. model response.  相似文献   

6.
The potential for rising groundwater is an important consideration in any coastal resiliency assessment. Unlike other groundwater modeling that focuses mostly on contaminant tracking, coastal groundwater resiliency assessments are primarily concerned with the potential for groundwater emergence induced by sea level rise. This provides more options for modelers that range from simplified water table elevation models to fully integrated groundwater and storm water models. The selection is dependent on available data and project needs. However, despite the relative simplicity of some of the techniques, all the methods benefit from a professional with hydrogeological training.  相似文献   

7.
Risk assessment of contaminated sites is crucial for quantifying adverse impacts on human health and the environment. It also provides effective decision support for remediation and management of such sites. This study presents an integrated approach for environmental and health risk assessment of subsurface contamination through the incorporation of a multiphase multicomponent modeling system within a general risk assessment framework. The method is applied to a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada. Three remediation scenarios with different efficiencies (0, 60, and 90%) and planning periods (10, 20, 40, 60, and 80 years later) are examined for each of the five potential land-use plans of the study site. Then three risky zones with different temporal and spatial distributions are identified based on the local environmental guidelines and the excess lifetime cancer risk criteria. The obtained results are useful for assessing potential human health effects when the groundwater is used for drinking water supply. They are also critical for evaluating environmental impacts when the groundwater is used for irrigation, stockbreeding, fish culture, or when the site remains the status quo. Moreover, the results indicate that the proposed method can effectively identify risky zones with different risk levels under various remediation actions, planning periods, and land-use patterns.  相似文献   

8.
The system assessment capability (SAC) is the first total-system stochastic simulator to address inventory distribution, environmental release and transport, and impacts to human health and ecological, economic, and cultural resources from hundreds of radiological and chemical waste disposal sites for the entire Hanford Site in southeast Washington State. Flow and contaminant transport modeling in the vadose zone at 720 individual sites has been integrated into the SAC stochastic software framework using the STOMP code, providing the means to define release to the regional aquifer to support the SAC groundwater transport model. Important features, events, and processes including remedial actions, time-variant natural infiltration rates, and high volume aqueous-phase discharges were addressed in the software and data. A separate data extraction program, VZGRAB, was developed to enable analysts to aggregate vadose zone release data across the hundreds of waste sites in various ways following a SAC simulation to develop an improved understanding of the system performance and uncertainty aspects.  相似文献   

9.
We completed a two‐step regional analysis of a coastal groundwater basin to (1) assess regional suitability for managed aquifer recharge (MAR), and (2) quantify the relative impact of MAR activities on groundwater levels and sea water intrusion. The first step comprised an analysis of surface and subsurface hydrologic properties and conditions, using a geographic information system (GIS). Surface and subsurface data coverages were compiled, georeferenced, reclassified, and integrated (including novel approaches for combining related datasets) to derive a spatial distribution of MAR suitability values. In the second step, results from the GIS analysis were used with a regional groundwater model to assess the hydrologic impact of potential MAR placement and operating scenarios. For the region evaluated in this study, the Pajaro Valley Groundwater Basin, California, GIS results suggest that about 7% (15 km2) of the basin may be highly suitable for MAR. Modeling suggests that simulated MAR projects placed near the coast help to reduce sea water intrusion more rapidly, but these projects also result in increased groundwater flows to the ocean. In contrast, projects placed farther inland result in more long‐term reduction in sea water intrusion and less groundwater flowing to the ocean. This work shows how combined GIS analysis and modeling can assist with regional water supply planning, including evaluation of options for enhancing groundwater resources.  相似文献   

10.
When linearity can be assumed (linear response of heads to stresses), stream–aquifer flow exchange can be simulated as the drainage of a number of independent linear reservoirs. This conceptual model, which can be mathematically deduced in a univocal way from an eigenvalue solution of the linear groundwater flow problem, facilitates the understanding of the physical phenomenon and the analysis of influencing factors. The number of reservoirs required to simulate stream depletion in some ideal homogeneous cases of stream–aquifer connection was analyzed in detail in a previous investigation using analytical eigenvalue solutions [16]. However, most aquifers are heterogeneous in nature and numerical solutions must be employed to analyze whether they could also be simulated using few reservoirs. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of the influence of heterogeneity on the simulation of natural groundwater discharges in aquifers connected to rivers, as a series of linear reservoirs. A Monte-Carlo approach was employed to perform this study. The results show that, on a monthly time scale, many cases (even heterogeneous aquifers) can be simulated using just a few reservoirs with sufficient accuracy and at minimum computational cost. Therefore, this modeling technique can be useful to efficiently simulate the integrated management of complex water resources systems at the basin scale (with many aquifers, reservoirs, demands, etc.) that need to simultaneously consider surface and groundwater flow and stream–aquifer interaction.  相似文献   

11.
Landslides in partially saturated colluvium on Seattle, WA, hillslopes have resulted in property damage and human casualties. We developed statistical models of colluvium and shallow‐groundwater distributions to aid landslide hazard assessments. The models were developed using a geographic information system, digital geologic maps, digital topography, subsurface exploration results, the groundwater flow modeling software VS2DI and regression analyses. Input to the colluvium model includes slope, distance to a hillslope–crest escarpment, and escarpment slope and height. We developed different statistical relations for thickness of colluvium on four landforms. Groundwater model input includes colluvium basal slope and distance from the Fraser aquifer. This distance was used to estimate hydraulic conductivity based on the assumption that addition of finer‐grained material from down‐section would result in lower conductivity. Colluvial groundwater is perched so we estimated its saturated thickness. We used VS2DI to establish relations between saturated thickness and the hydraulic conductivity and basal slope of the colluvium. We developed different statistical relations for three groundwater flow regimes. All model results were validated using observational data that were excluded from calibration. Eighty percent of colluvium thickness predictions were within 25% of observed values and 88% of saturated thickness predictions were within 20% of observed values. The models are based on conditions common to many areas, so our method can provide accurate results for similar regions; relations in our statistical models require calibration for new regions. Our results suggest that Seattle landslides occur in native deposits and colluvium, ultimately in response to surface‐water erosion of hillslope toes. Regional groundwater conditions do not appear to strongly affect the general distribution of Seattle landslides; historical landslides were equally dispersed within and outside of the area potentially affected by regional groundwater conditions. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
A groundwater plume containing high concentrations of pharmaceutical compounds, mainly sulfonamides, barbiturates, and ethyl urethane, in addition to chlorinated ethenes and benzene was investigated. The contamination originating from a former pharmaceutical industry discharges into a multilayered aquifer system and a downgradient stream. In this study, geological and hydrogeological data were integrated into a numerical flow model to examine identified trends using statistical approaches, including principal component analysis and hierarchal cluster analysis. A joint interpretation of the groundwater flow paths and contaminant concentrations in the different compartments (i.e., groundwater and hyporheic zone) provided insight on the transport processes of the different contaminant plumes to the stream. The analysis of historical groundwater concentrations of pharmaceutical compounds at the site suggested these compounds are slowly degrading. The pharmaceutical compounds migrate in both a deep semiconfined aquifer, as well as in the shallow unconfined aquifer, and enter the stream along a 2-km stretch. This contrasted with the chlorinated ethenes, which mainly discharge to the stream as a focused plume from the unconfined aquifer. The integrated approach developed here, combining groundwater flow modeling and statistical analyses of the contaminant concentration data collected in groundwater and the hyporheic zone, lead to an improved understanding of the observed distribution of contaminants in the unconfined and semiconfined aquifers, and thus to their discharge to the stream. This approach is particularly relevant for large and long-lasting contaminant sources and plumes, such as abandoned landfills and industrial production sites, where field investigations may be very expensive.  相似文献   

13.
The recent drought in the UK has focused attention on the requirement for more effective groundwater management practices in order to reduce the interference of groundwater abstraction on river flows to acceptable levels. Quantification of the impacts and the assessment of alternative management strategies requires the use of mathematical models. An Integrated Catchment Management Model is described which permits the direct assessment of alternative groundwater management practices on river flows. The model utilises a modified version of the Stanford Watershed Model for groundwater recharge estimation and for the computation of the surface and interflow components of runoff. The river system is incorporated implicitly in an integrated finite difference groundwater model. Groundwater flow to or from the river system is computed as a function of river level, which in turn is related to stage discharge characteristics of discrete reaches of the river system. The model has now been applied to a number of important groundwater systems in southern and eastern England. The calibration and verification results achieved in application to the River Allen catchment are presented. The approach maximises the use of readily available hydrological and hydrogeological information, and gives the water resources planner a sound framework and support for decision making.  相似文献   

14.
Understanding multiphase transport within saline aquifers is necessary for safe and efficient CO2 sequestration. To that end, numerous full‐physics codes exist for rigorously modeling multiphase flow within porous and permeable rock formations. High‐fidelity simulation with such codes is data‐ and computation‐intensive, and may not be suitable for screening‐level calculations. Alternatively, under conditions of vertical equilibrium, a class of sharp‐interface models result in simplified relationships that can be solved with limited computing resources and geologic/fluidic data. In this study, the sharp‐interface model of Nordbotten and Celia (2006a,2006b) is evaluated against results from a commercial full‐physics simulator for a semi‐confined system with vertical permeability heterogeneity. In general, significant differences were observed between the simulator and the sharp‐interface model results. A variety of adjustments were made to the sharp‐interface model including modifications to the fluid saturation and effective viscosity in the two‐phase region behind the CO2‐brine interface. These adaptations significantly improved the predictive ability of the sharp interface model while maintaining overall tractability.  相似文献   

15.
Since surface water and groundwater systems are fully coupled and integrated, increased groundwater withdrawal during drought may reduce groundwater discharges into the stream, thereby prolonging both systems’ recovery from drought. To analyze watershed response to basin-level groundwater pumping, we propose a modelling framework to understand the resiliency of surface water and groundwater systems using an integrated hydrologic model under transient pumping. The proposed framework incorporates uncertainties in initial conditions to develop robust estimates of restoration times of both surface water and groundwater and quantifies how pumping impacts state variables such as soil moisture. Groundwater pumping impacts over a watershed were also analyzed under different pumping volumes and different potential climate scenarios. Our analyses show that groundwater restoration time is more sensitive to variability in climate forcings as opposed to changes in pumping volumes. After the cessation of pumping, streamflow recovers quickly in comparison to groundwater, which has higher persistence. Pumping impacts on various hydrologic variables were also discussed. Potential for developing optimal conjunctive management plans using seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts is also discussed.  相似文献   

16.
Over the past few decades, groundwater has become an essential commodity owing to increased demand as a result of growing population, industrialization, urbanization and so on. The water supply situation is expected to become more severe in the future because of continued unsustainable water use and projected change in hydrometeorological parameters due to climate change. This study is based on the integrated approach of remote sensing, geographical information system and multicriteria decision‐making techniques to determine the most important contributing factors that affect the groundwater resources and to delineate the groundwater potential zones. Ten thematic layers, namely, geomorphology, geology, soil, topographic elevation (digital elevation model), land use/land cover, drainage density, lineament density, proximity of surface water bodies, surface temperature and post‐monsoon groundwater depth, were considered for the present study. These thematic layers were selected for groundwater prospecting based on the literature; discussion with the experts of the Central Ground Water Board, Government of India; field observations; geophysical investigation; and multivariate techniques. The thematic layers and their features were assigned suitable weights on Saaty's scale according to their relative significance for groundwater occurrence. The assigned weights of the layers and their features were normalized by using the analytic hierarchy process and eigenvector method. Finally, the selected thematic maps were integrated using a weighted linear combination method to create the final groundwater potential zone map. The final output map shows different zones of groundwater potential, namely, very good (16%), good (35%), moderate (28%) low (17%) and very low (2.1%). The groundwater potential zone map was finally validated using the discharge and groundwater depth data from 28 and 98 pumping wells, respectively, which showed good correlation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
洪泛湿地是位于水生系统和陆生系统之间的过渡带，在河流和陆地之间的水文生态方面起着纽带作用，受气候变化和人类活动的叠加影响，其水文过程改变很大程度上影响了湿地生态系统循环、结构和功能的稳定。本文以鄱阳湖洪泛区湿地为研究区，应用湖泊水动力和洪泛区地下水数值模型，评估鄱阳湖拟建水利枢纽工程对洪泛区地下水系统的影响。模拟结果表明，拟建水利枢纽工程将会遵循调度方案使得湖泊水位明显提高，但同时导致洪泛区地下水位的整体抬升，且东部主湖区附近的地下水位受到的影响（约1～3 m）要明显强于洪泛区其它区域（约小于1 m）。地下水位的变化同时导致不同典型时期洪泛区地下水流速的减小及地下水流向的改变，表现为枢纽建设后地下水流向的逆转和流速基本小于0.1 m/d。鄱阳湖涨水-丰水期总体为湖水补给洪泛区地下水模式，枯水-退水期主要为地下水补给湖水模式，但水利枢纽可能导致洪泛区地下水系统水均衡状态发生转变，影响了地下水系统的补给和排泄状态，最终形成了长期稳定的湖泊补给地下水的作用模式。从地下水-生态系统响应变化的角度分析，拟建水利枢纽建设引起的地下水位上升，可能会给湿地生物地球化学元素的迁移转化、植被群落的演变与退...  相似文献   

18.
As a fundamental unit of the landscape, hillslopes are studied for their retention and release of water and nutrients across a wide range of ecosystems. The understanding of these near‐surface processes is relevant to issues of runoff generation, groundwater–surface water interactions, catchment export of nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, contaminants (e.g. mercury) and ultimately surface water health. We develop a 3‐D physics‐based representation of the Panola Mountain Research Watershed experimental hillslope using the TOUGH2 sub‐surface flow and transport simulator. A recent investigation of sub‐surface flow within this experimental hillslope has generated important knowledge of threshold rainfall‐runoff response and its relation to patterns of transient water table development. This work has identified components of the 3‐D sub‐surface, such as bedrock topography, that contribute to changing connectivity in saturated zones and the generation of sub‐surface stormflow. Here, we test the ability of a 3‐D hillslope model (both calibrated and uncalibrated) to simulate forested hillslope rainfall‐runoff response and internal transient sub‐surface stormflow dynamics. We also provide a transparent illustration of physics‐based model development, issues of parameterization, examples of model rejection and usefulness of data types (e.g. runoff, mean soil moisture and transient water table depth) to the model enterprise. Our simulations show the inability of an uncalibrated model based on laboratory and field characterization of soil properties and topography to successfully simulate the integrated hydrological response or the distributed water table within the soil profile. Although not an uncommon result, the failure of the field‐based characterized model to represent system behaviour is an important challenge that continues to vex scientists at many scales. We focus our attention particularly on examining the influence of bedrock permeability, soil anisotropy and drainable porosity on the development of patterns of transient groundwater and sub‐surface flow. Internal dynamics of transient water table development prove to be essential in determining appropriate model parameterization. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Uranium (U) concentrations in groundwater in several parts of the eastern San Joaquin Valley, California, have exceeded federal and state drinking water standards during the last 20 years. The San Joaquin Valley is located within the Central Valley of California and is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world. Increased irrigation and pumping associated with agricultural and urban development during the last 100 years have changed the chemistry and magnitude of groundwater recharge, and increased the rate of downward groundwater movement. Strong correlations between U and bicarbonate suggest that U is leached from shallow sediments by high bicarbonate water, consistent with findings of previous work in Modesto, California. Summer irrigation of crops in agricultural areas and, to lesser extent, of landscape plants and grasses in urban areas, has increased Pco2 concentrations in the soil zone and caused higher temperature and salinity of groundwater recharge. Coupled with groundwater pumping, this process, as evidenced by increasing bicarbonate concentrations in groundwater over the last 100 years, has caused shallow, young groundwater with high U concentrations to migrate to deeper parts of the groundwater system that are tapped by public-supply wells. Continued downward migration of U-affected groundwater and expansion of urban centers into agricultural areas will likely be associated with increased U concentrations in public-supply wells. The results from this study illustrate the potential long-term effects of groundwater development and irrigation-supported agriculture on water quality in arid and semiarid regions around the world.  相似文献   

20.
The Kanin massif is an important trans‐boundary aquifer, which stretches between Slovenia and Italy. The groundwater is only partially exploited, mainly for water supply, but the aquifer exhibits great potential for future exploitation. Since no consistent regional overview of the hydrogeological functioning of the Kanin massif was available, the decision was made to perform a study of this area, using a pragmatic approach based on 3D geological and hydrogeological modelling. The so‐called KARSYS approach was applied, with the aim of characterizing the groundwater reserves within this karst massif and of locating the main drainage axes that carry groundwater from the recharge areas to the respective springs. Delineation of the catchment areas of the corresponding springs was carried out, and some new explanations were obtained, especially with regard to the Mo?nica spring, which is located in Slovenia and forms a potential source of drinking water. It was found that this spring's catchment area extends as far as the Italian ski resort of Sella Nevea. The conceptual model also provides a possible explanation about the underground drainage towards the Boka spring and waterfall, which has been a challenge for decades. This new explanation is based on the existence of a perched groundwater body that feeds the Boka spring via a system of conduits. Despite some limitations, the results, which consist of a visualization of the underground drainage and groundwater storage within the Kanin massif, can be used as a basis for planning the sustainable management of karst waters in the studied area. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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