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1.
Satellite observations of cloud top temperature and lightning flash distribution are used to examine the relationship between deep convection and lightning activity over the tropical regions of the northern and southern hemispheres. In agreement with previous work, the analysis of the results shows that, in the summer of both hemispheres, the lightning activity in continental deep convective storms is more intense than that in marine deep convective storms by a factor of between 7 and 10. Furthermore, it was observed that on average the daily lightning rate per 1°×1° grid cell for the southern hemisphere (SH) is about 20% greater than that of the northern hemisphere (NH), which can be attributed to a larger fractional cover by deep convective clouds in the SH. By using a set of independent indicators, it is shown that deep convection and lightning activity over land are well correlated (with correlation coefficients of 0.8 and 0.6 for NH and SH, respectively). This suggests the capacity for observations to act as a possible method of monitoring continental deep convective clouds, which play a key role in regulating the Earth’s climate. Since lightning can be monitored easily from ground networks and satellites, it could be a useful tool for validating the performance of model convective schemes and for monitoring changes in climate parameters.  相似文献   

2.
The Dynamical-microphysical-electrical Processes in Severe Thunderstorms and Lightning Hazards(STORM973)project conducted coordinated comprehensive field observations of thunderstorms in the Beijing metropolitan region(BMR)during the warm season from 2014 to 2018.The aim of the project was to understand how dynamical,microphysical and electrical processes interact in severe thunderstorms in the BMR,and how to assimilate lightning data in numerical weather prediction models to improve severe thunderstorm forecasts.The platforms used in the field campaign included the Beijing Lightning Network(BLNET,consisting of 16 stations),2 X-band dual linear polarimetric Doppler radars,and 4 laser raindrop spectrometers.The collaboration also made use of the China Meteorological Administration’s mesoscale meteorological observation network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Although diverse thunderstorm types were documented,it was found that squall lines and multicell storms were the two major categories of severe thunderstorms with frequent lightning activity and extreme rainfall or unexpected local short-duration heavy rainfall resulting in inundations in the central urban area,influenced by the terrain and environmental conditions.The flash density maximums were found in eastern Changping District,central and eastern Shunyi District,and the central urban area of Beijing,suggesting that the urban heat island effect has a crucial role in the intensification of thunderstorms over Beijing.In addition,the flash rate associated with super thunderstorms can reach hundreds of flashes per minute in the central city regions.The super(5%of the total),strong(35%),and weak(60%)thunderstorms contributed about 37%,56%,and 7%to the total flashes in the BMR,respectively.Owing to the close connection between lightning activity and the thermodynamic and microphysical characteristics of the thunderstorms,the lightning flash rate can be used as an indicator of severe weather events,such as hail and short-duration heavy rainfall.Lightning data can also be assimilated into numerical weather prediction models to help improve the forecasting of severe convection and precipitation at the cloud-resolved scale,through adjusting or correcting the thermodynamic and microphysical parameters of the model.  相似文献   

3.
Intense Mediterranean precipitation can generate devastating flash floods. A better understanding of the spatial structure of intense rainfall is critical to better identify catchments that will produce strong hydrological responses. We focus on two intense Mediterranean rain events of different types that occured in 2002. Radar and rain gauge measurements are combined to have a data set with a high spatial (1 × 1 km2) and temporal (5 min) resolution. Two thresholds are determined using the quantiles of the rain rate values, corresponding to the precipitating system at large and to the intense rain cells. A method based on indicator variograms associated with the thresholds is proposed in order to automatically quantify the spatial structure at each time step during the entire rain events. Therefore, its variability within intense rain events can be investigated. The spatial structure is found to be homogeneous over periods that can be related to the dynamics of the events. Moreover, a decreasing time resolution (i.e., increasing accumulation period) of the rain rate data will stretch the spatial structure because of the advection of rain cells by the wind. These quantitative characteristics of the spatial structure of intense Mediterranean rainfall will be useful to improve our understanding of the dynamics of flash floods.  相似文献   

4.
The French Mediterranean area is subject to intense rainfall events which might cause flash floods, the main natural hazard in the area. Flood-risk rainfall is defined as rainfall with a high spatial average and encompasses rainfall which might lead to flash floods. We aim to compare eight multivariate density models for multi-site flood-risk rainfall. In particular, an accurate characterization of the spatial variability of flood-risk rainfall is crucial to help understand flash flood processes. Daily data from eight rain gauge stations at the Gardon at Anduze, a small Mediterranean catchment, are used in this work. Each multivariate density model is made of a combination of a marginal model and a dependence structure. Two marginal models are considered: the Gamma distribution (parametric) and the Log-Normal mixture (non-parametric). Four dependence structures are included in the comparison: Gaussian, Student t, Skew Normal and Skew t in increasing order of complexity. They possess a representative set of theoretical properties (symmetry/asymmetry and asymptotic dependence/independence). The multivariate models are compared in terms of three types of criteria: (1) separate evaluation of the goodness-of-fit of the margins and of the dependence structures, (2) model selection with a leave-one-out evaluation of the Anderson-Darling and Cramer-Von Mises statistics and (3) comparison in terms of two hydrologically interpretable quantities (return periods of the spatial average and conditional probabilities of exceedances). The key outcome of the comparison is that the Skew Normal with the Log-Normal mixture margins outperform significantly the other models. The asymmetry introduced by the Skew Normal is an added-value with respect to the Gaussian. Therefore, the Gaussian dependence structure, although widely used in the literature, is not recommended for the data in this study. In contrast, the asymptotically dependent models did not provide a significant improvement over the asymptotically independent ones.  相似文献   

5.
Lightning activity and precipitation structure of hailstorms   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
By using the cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning location data from the lightning detection network of He- nan Province, surface Doppler radar data and standard orbit data of PR, TMI and LIS on TRMM satellite, the spatial and temporal characteristics of CG lightning flashes in 10 severe hailstorms are analyzed. The results show that the percentage of CG lightning in these hailstorms is high with an average value of 45.5%. There is a distinct increase in CG flash rate during the rapid development stage of hailstorms. The hailstone falling corresponds to an active positive flash period, and the increase of CG flash rate is generally accompanied with a decrease of –CG flash rate. The flash rate declines rapidly during the dissipating stage of hailstorms. The precipitation structure and lightning activity in two typical hail- storms are studied in detail. It is found that strong convective cells with reflectivity greater than 30dBZ mainly are situated in the front region of hailstorms, whereas the trailing stratiform region is in the rear part of the hailstorms. The maximum heights of echo top are higher than 14 km. Convective rain con- tributes much more rainfall to the total than stratiform rain, and the convective rain takes about 85% and 97% of the total in the two cases, respectively. Total lightning in the hailstorms is very active with the flash rate up to 183 fl/min and 55 fl/min, respectively. The results also indicate that most lightning flashes occurred in the echo region greater than 30 dBZ and its immediate periphery. The probability of lightning occurrence is 20 times higher in the convective region than in the stratiform region. The result suggests that the lightning information is helpful to the identification of convective rain region. The linear relationship between flash rate and ice water content is disclosed primarily.  相似文献   

6.
On 20th May 2006 the Soufrière Hills Volcano on the Caribbean island of Montserrat experienced a large dome collapse and intense rainfall generated flash floods. The floods had very high loads of volcanic debris derived both from this and previous eruptions and can thus be classified as lahars. The floods reached unusually high water levels and caused substantial geomorphic change in the Belham Valley. Detailed rainfall and geomorphological data, coupled with the precise timing of events and yewitness accounts have facilitated an assessment of the relative importance of rainfall volume and intensity, older volcanic debris, pre- and syn-flood tephra fall and the extent of pre-flood vegetation damage for the behavior of this and subsequent sediment-laden floods in this setting. The change in runoff behavior was controlled by preexisting vegetation damage and synchronous tephra fall and this was critically important in controlling the impact of these flash floods. Although rainfall intensity and volume have some control on flood occurrence they are not the critical control on flash flood impact on the geomorphology in the Belham Valley. A significant conclusion of this study is that the extreme nature of the flash floods was not caused by extreme rainfall (as is commonly believed to be the primary cause of flash floods) but rather it was the result of changed runoff behaviour caused by the widespread syn-flood tephra deposition and importantly the widespread vegetation damage by volcanic-associated acid rain in the preceding weeks.  相似文献   

7.
E. Morin  H. Yakir 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1353-1362
Abstract

t Spatio-temporal storm properties have a large impact on catchment hydrological response. The sensitivity of simulated flash floods to convective rain-cell characteristics is examined for an extreme storm event over a 94 km2 semi-arid catchment in southern Israel. High space–time resolution weather radar data were used to derive and model convective rain cells that then served as input into a hydrological model. Based on alterations of location, direction and speed of a major rain cell, identified as the flooding cell for this case, the impacts on catchment rainfall and generated flood were examined. Global sensitivity analysis was applied to identify the most important factors affecting the flash flood peak discharge at the catchment outlet. We found that the flood peak discharge could be increased three-fold by relatively small changes in rain-cell characteristics. We assessed that the maximum flash flood magnitude that this single rain cell can produce is 175 m3/s, and, taking into account the rest of the rain cells, the flash flood peak discharge can reach 260 m3/s.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Morin, E. and Yakir, H., 2013. Hydrological impact and potential flooding of convective rain cells in a semi-arid environment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1275–1284. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.841315  相似文献   

8.
Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small, urban catchments is examined through analyses of radar, rain gage and discharge observations from the 14.3 km2 Dead Run drainage basin in Baltimore County, Maryland. The flash flood forecasting problem pushes the envelope of rainfall estimation to time and space scales that are commensurate with the scales at which the fundamental governing laws of land surface processes are derived. Analyses of radar rainfall estimates are based on volume scan WSR-88D reflectivity observations for 36 storms during the period 2003–2005. Gage-radar analyses show large spatial variability of storm total rainfall over the 14.3 km2 basin for flash flood producing storms. The ability to capture the detailed spatial variation of rainfall for flash flood producing storms by WSR-88D rainfall estimates varies markedly from event to event. As spatial scale decreases from the 14.3 km2 scale of the Dead Run watershed to 1 km2 (and the characteristic time scale of flash flood producing rainfall decreases from 1 h to 15 min) the predictability of flash flood response from WSR-88D rainfall estimates decreases sharply. Storm to storm variability of multiplicative bias in storm total rainfall estimates is a dominant element of the error structure of radar rainfall estimates, and it varies systematically over the warm season and with flood magnitude. Analyses of the 7 July 2004 and 28 June 2005 storms illustrate microphysical and dynamical controls on radar estimation error for extreme flash flood producing storms.  相似文献   

9.
Short‐term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) can be achieved from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models or radar nowcasting, that is the extrapolation of the precipitation at a future time from consecutive radar scans. Hybrid forecasts obtained by merging rainfall forecasts from radar nowcasting and NWP models are potentially more skilful than either radar nowcasts or NWP rainfall forecasts alone. This paper provides an assessment of deterministic and probabilistic high‐resolution QPFs achieved by implementing the Short‐term Ensemble Prediction System developed by the UK Met Office. Both radar nowcasts and hybrid forecasts have been performed. The results show that the performance of both deterministic nowcasts and deterministic hybrid forecasts decreases with increasing rainfall intensity and spatial resolution. The results also show that the blending with the NWP forecasts improves the performance of the forecasting system. Probabilistic hybrid forecasts have been obtained through the modelling of a stochastic noise component to produce a number of equally likely ensemble members, and the comparative assessment of deterministic and probabilistic hybrid forecasts shows that the probabilistic forecasting system is characterised by a higher discrimination accuracy than the deterministic one. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Lightning Applications in Weather and Climate Research   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Thunderstorms, and lightning in particular, are a major natural hazard to the public, aviation, power companies, and wildfire managers. Lightning causes great damage and death every year but also tells us about the inner working of storms. Since lightning can be monitored from great distances from the storms themselves, lightning may allow us to provide early warnings for severe weather phenomena such as hail storms, flash floods, tornadoes, and even hurricanes. Lightning itself may impact the climate of the Earth by producing nitrogen oxides (NOx), a precursor of tropospheric ozone, which is a powerful greenhouse gas. Thunderstorms themselves influence the climate system by the redistribution of heat, moisture, and momentum in the atmosphere. What about future changes in lightning and thunderstorm activity? Many studies show that higher surface temperatures produce more lightning, but future changes will depend on what happens to the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere, as well as changes in water balance, and even aerosol loading of the atmosphere. Finally, lightning itself may provide a useful tool for tracking climate change in the future, due to the nonlinear link between lightning, temperature, upper tropospheric water vapor, and cloud cover.  相似文献   

11.
This preliminary investigation of the recent spate of deadly flash floods and debris flows in Ladakh (India) over the last decade identifies uncontrolled development in hazardous locations as an important factor contributing to loss of life and property damage in this high mountain desert. The sediments exposed in the channel banks and on the alluvial fans of several mountain streams in the area indicate a long history of flash floods and debris flows resulting from intense storms, which appear to have increased in frequency within the last decade. The signposts of these recurrent hazards are being ignored as a growing economy, which is boosted by a well‐established tourism industry, is now driving development onto lands that are susceptible to floods and debris flow hazards. In this science briefing we argue that the increasing vulnerability in Ladakh should be addressed with sound disaster governance strategies that are proactive, rather than reactionary. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Rainfall and flood data are relatively sparse in semi‐arid areas; hence there have been relatively few investigations into the relationships between rainfall inputs and flood generation in these environments. Previous work has shown that flood properties are influenced by a combination of precipitation characteristics including amount, intensity, duration and spatial distribution. Therefore floods may be produced by high intensity, short duration storms, or longer duration, low intensity rainfall. Most of this research has been undertaken in small catchments in either hyper‐arid or relatively high rainfall Mediterranean climates. This paper presents results from a 6 year data record in south‐east Spain from research conducted in two basins, the Rambla Nogalte (171 km2) and the Rambla de Torrealvilla (200 km2). Data cover an area of approximately 500 km2 and an annual average rainfall of 300 mm. At coarse temporal resolutions gauges spread over large areas record similar patterns of rainfall, although spells of rain show much more complexity; pulses of rain within storms can vary considerably in total rainfall, intensity and duration over the same area. The analysis for south‐east Spain shows that most storms occur over a period of less than 24 h, but that the number of rainfall events declines as the duration exceeds 8 h. This is at odds with data on floods for the study area suggesting that they are produced by storms lasting longer than 18 h. However, one flood event was produced by a very short (15 min) storm with high intensity rainfall. Most floods tended to occur in May/June or September, which coincides with wetter months of the year (September, October, December and May). Floods are also more highly related to the total rainfall occurring in a spell of rain, than to intensity. The complexity of storm rainfall increases with the storm total, which makes it difficult to generalize on the importance of rainfall intensity for flood generation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The NOAA Great Lakes Operational Forecast System (GLOFS) uses near-real-time atmospheric observations and numerical weather prediction forecast guidance to produce three-dimensional forecasts of water temperature and currents, and two-dimensional forecasts of water levels of the Great Lakes. This system, originally called the Great Lakes forecasting system (GLFS), was developed at The Ohio State University and NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (GLERL) in 1989. In 1996, a workstation version of the GLFS was ported to GLERL to generate semi-operational nowcasts and forecasts daily. In 2004, GLFS went through rigorous skill assessment and was transitioned to the National Ocean Service (NOS) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) in Silver Spring, MD. GLOFS has been making operational nowcasts and forecasts at CO-OPS since September 30, 2005. Hindcast, nowcast, and forecast evaluations using the NOS-developed skill assessment software tool indicated both surface water levels and temperature predictions passed the NOS specified criteria at a majority of the validation locations with relatively low root mean square error (4–8 cm for water levels and 0.5 to 1°C for surface water temperatures). The difficulty of accurately simulating seiches generated by storms (in particular in shallow lakes like Lake Erie) remains a major source of error in water level prediction and should be addressed in future improvements of the forecast system.  相似文献   

14.
This paper presents the verification results for nowcasts of seven categorical variables from an integrated weighted model (INTW) and the underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Nowcasting, or short range forecasting (0–6 h), over complex terrain with sufficient accuracy is highly desirable but a very challenging task. A weighting, evaluation, bias correction and integration system (WEBIS) for generating nowcasts by integrating NWP forecasts and high frequency observations was used during the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games as part of the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) project. Forecast data from Canadian high-resolution deterministic NWP system with three nested grids (at 15-, 2.5- and 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) were selected as background gridded data for generating the integrated nowcasts. Seven forecast variables of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, wind gust, visibility, ceiling and precipitation rate are treated as categorical variables for verifying the integrated weighted forecasts. By analyzing the verification of forecasts from INTW and the NWP models among 15 sites, the integrated weighted model was found to produce more accurate forecasts for the 7 selected forecast variables, regardless of location. This is based on the multi-categorical Heidke skill scores for the test period 12 February to 21 March 2010.  相似文献   

15.
Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005. In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out. The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of these convective storms can be improved.  相似文献   

16.
Flash floods represent one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters worldwide. The hydrological analysis of a flash flood event contributes in the understanding of the runoff creation process. This study presents the analysis of some flash flood events that took place in a complex geomorphological Mediterranean River basin. The objective of the present work is to develop the thresholds for a real‐time flash flood forecasting model in a complex geomorphological watershed, based on high‐frequency data from strategically located hydrological and meteorological telemetric stations. These stations provide hourly real‐time data which were used to determine hydrological and meteorological parameters. The main characteristics of various hydrographs specified in this study were the runoff coefficients, lag time, time to peak, and the maximum potential retention. The estimation of these hydrometeorological parameters provides the necessary information in order to successfully manage flash floods events. Especially, the time to peak is the most significant hydrological parameter that affects the response time of an oncoming flash flood event. A study of the above parameters is essential for the specification of thresholds which are related to the geomorphological characteristics of the river basin, the rainfall accumulation of an event, the rainfall intensity, the threshold runoff through karstic area, the season during which the rainfall takes place and the time intervals between the rainstorms that affect the soil moisture conditions. All these factors are combined into a real‐time‐threshold flash flood prediction model. Historical flash flood events at the downstream are also used for the validation of the model. An application of the proposed model is presented for the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT

Discharge observations and reliable rainfall forecasts are essential for flood prediction but their availability and accuracy are often limited. However, even scarce data may still allow adequate flood forecasts to be made. Here, we explored how far using limited discharge calibration data and uncertain forcing data would affect the performance of a bucket-type hydrological model for simulating floods in a tropical basin. Three events above thresholds with a high and a low frequency of occurrence were used in calibration and 81 rainfall scenarios with different degrees of uncertainty were used as input to assess their effects on flood predictions. Relatively similar model performance was found when using calibrated parameters based on a few events above different thresholds. Flood predictions were sensitive to rainfall errors, but those related to volume had a larger impact. The results of this study indicate that a limited number of events can be useful for predicting floods given uncertain rainfall forecasts.  相似文献   

18.
Weather radar has a potential to provide accurate short‐term (0–3 h) forecasts of rainfall (i.e. radar nowcasts), which are of great importance in warnings and risk management for hydro‐meteorological events. However, radar nowcasts are affected by large uncertainties, which are not only linked to limitations in the forecast method but also because of errors in the radar rainfall measurement. The probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting approach attempts to quantify these uncertainties by delivering the forecasts in a probabilistic form. This study implements two forms of probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting for a hilly area in the south of Manchester, namely, the theoretically based scheme [ensemble rainfall forecasts (ERF)‐TN] and the empirically based scheme (ERF‐EM), and explores which one exhibits higher predictive skill. The ERF‐TN scheme generates ensemble forecasts of rainfall in which each ensemble member is determined by the stochastic realisation of a theoretical noise component. The so‐called ERF‐EM scheme proposed and applied for the first time in this study, aims to use an empirically based error model to measure and quantify the combined effect of all the error sources in the radar rainfall forecasts. The essence of the error model is formulated into an empirical relation between the radar rainfall forecasts and the corresponding ‘ground truth’ represented by the rainfall field from rain gauges measurements. The ensemble members generated by the two schemes have been compared with the rain gauge rainfall. The hit rate and the false alarm rate statistics have been computed and combined into relative operating characteristic curves. The comparison of the performance scores for the two schemes shows that the ERF‐EM achieves better performance than the ERF‐TN at 1‐h lead time. The predictive skills of both schemes are almost identical when the lead time increases to 2 h. In addition, the relation between uncertainty in the radar rainfall forecasts and lead time is also investigated by computing the dispersion of the generated ensemble members. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

The societal impacts of flash floods are more significant than any other weather-related hazard. They are often manifested in the form of damage to infrastructure, flooding of roadways and bridges, creating deadly hazards to motorists and inundation of crops and pasture. Some of these hazards can be anticipated and thus mitigated given effective warning systems. This study describes the tools proposed over recent decades in the USA to predict flash flooding and evaluates them using a common observational data set. Design recommendations for flash-flood forecasting systems are provided, taking into account today's availability of high-resolution rainfall data at scales commensurate with flash flooding, their archives, spatial data sets to describe physiographic properties, and ever-increasing computational resources.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Gourley, J.J., Flamig, Z.L., Hong, Y., and Howard, K.W., 2014. Evaluation of past, present and future tools for radar-based flash-flood prediction in the USA. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1377–1389. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.919391  相似文献   

20.
In much of western United States destructive floods after wildfire are frequently caused by localized, short‐duration convective thunderstorms; however, little is known about post‐fire flooding from longer‐duration, low‐intensity mesoscale storms. In this study we estimate and compare peak flows from convective and mesoscale floods following the 2012 High Park Fire in the ungaged 15.5 km2 Skin Gulch basin in the northcentral Colorado Front Range. The convective storm on 6 July 2012 came just days after the wildfire was contained. Radar data indicated that the total rainfall was 20–47 mm, and the maximum rainfall intensities (upwards of 50 mm h?1) were concentrated over portions of the watershed that burned at high severity. The mesoscale storm on 9–15 September 2013 produced 220–240 mm of rain but had maximum 15‐min intensities of only 25–32 mm h?1. Peak flows for each flood were estimated using three independent techniques. Our best estimate using a 2D hydraulic model was 28 m3 s?1 km?2 for the flood following the convective storm, placing it among the largest rainfall‐runoff floods per unit area in the United States. In contrast, the flood associated with the mesoscale flood was only 6 m3 s?1 km?2, but the long‐duration flood caused extensive channel incision and widening, indicating that this storm was much more geomorphically effective. The peak flow estimates for the 2013 flood had a higher relative uncertainty and this stemmed from whether we used pre‐ or post‐flood channel topography. The results document the extent to which a high and moderate severity forest fire can greatly increase peak flows and alter channel morphology, illustrate how indirect peak flow estimates have larger errors than is generally assumed, and indicate that the magnitude of post‐fire floods and geomorphic change can be affected by the timing, magnitude, duration, and sequence of rainstorms. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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