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1.
The estimation of the seismological parameters of historical earthquakes is a key step when performing seismic hazard assessment in moderate seismicity regions as France. We propose an original method to assess magnitude and depth of historical earthquakes using intensity data points. A flowchart based on an exploration tree (ET) approach allows to apply a consistent methodology to all the different configurations of the earthquake macroseismic field and to explore the inherent uncertainties. The method is applied to French test case historical earthquakes, using the SisFrance (BRGM, IRSN, EDF) macroseismic database and the intensity prediction equations (IPEs) calibrated in the companion paper (Baumont et al. Bull Earthq Eng, 2017). A weighted least square scheme allowing for the joint inversion of magnitude and depth is applied to earthquakes that exhibit a decay of intensity with distance. Two cases are distinguished: (1) a “Complete ET” is applied to earthquakes located within the metropolitan territory, while (2) a “Simplified ET” is applied to both, offshore and cross border events, lacking information at short distances but disposing of reliable data at large ones. Finally, a priori-depth-based magnitude computation is applied to ancient or poorly documented events, only described by single/sporadic intensity data or few macroseismic testimonies. Specific processing of “felt” testimonies allows exploiting this complementary information for poorly described earthquakes. Uncertainties associated to magnitude and depth estimates result from both, full propagation of uncertainties related to the original macroseismic information and the epistemic uncertainty related to the IPEs selection procedure.  相似文献   

2.
An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates.  相似文献   

3.
—?The problem of accounting for local soil effect on earthquake ground motion is especially urgent when assessing seismic hazard – recent needs of earthquake engineering require local site effects to be included into hazard maps. However, most recent works do not consider the variety of soil conditions or are performed for generalized site categories, such as “hard rock,”“soft soil” or “alluvium.” A technique of seismic hazard calculations on the basis of the Fourier Amplitude Spectra recently developed by the authors allows us to create hazard maps involving the influence of local soil conditions using soil/bedrock spectral ratios. Probabilistic microzoning maps may be constructed showing macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, response and design spectra for various return periods (probability of exceedance), that allow optimization of engineering decisions. An application of this approach is presented which focused on the probabilistic microzoning of the Tashkent City.  相似文献   

4.
We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.  相似文献   

5.
Estimates of site seismicity rates using ill-defined macroseismic data   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
A new approach to the problem of site seismic hazard analysis is proposed, based on intensity data affected by uncertainties. This approach takes into account the ordinal and discrete character of intensities, trying to avoid misleading results due to the assumption that intensity can be treated as a real number (continuous distribution estimators, attenuation relationships, etc.). The proposed formulation is based on the use of a distribution function describing, for each earthquake, the probability that site seismic effects can be described by each possible intensity value. In order to obtain site hazard estimates where local data are lacking, the dependence of this distribution function with the distance from the macroseismic epicenter and with epicentral intensity is examined. A methodology has been developed for the purpose of combining such probabilities and estimating site seismicity rates which takes into account the effect of uncertainties involved in this kind of analysis. An application of this approach is described and discussed.  相似文献   

6.
In the framework of the UPStrat-MAFA project, a seismic hazard assessment has been undertaken in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna as a first step in studies aimed at evaluating the risk on an urban scale. The analysis has been carried out with the SASHA code which uses macroseismic data in order to calculate, starting from the site seismic history, the maximum intensity value expected in a given site with a probability of exceedance of 10 % (Iref), for a fixed exposure time. Depending on the aims of the project, hazard is estimated for local volcano-tectonic seismicity and short exposure times (10 and 30 years), without taking into account the contribution of “regional” events characterized by much longer recurrence times. Results from tasks A, B and D of the project have produced an updated macroseismic dataset, better performing attenuation models and new tools for SASHA, respectively. The maps obtained indicate that the eastern flank of Etna, the most urbanized sector of the volcano, is characterized by a high level of hazard with Iref values up to degree VIII EMS, and even IX EMS locally. The disaggregated data analysis allows recognizing the “design earthquake” and the seismogenic fault which most contribute to the hazard at a site-scale. The latter analysis is the starting point to select the scenario earthquake to be used in the analyses of tasks C and F of the project dealing with, respectively, synthetic ground motion simulations and the evaluation of the Disruption Index.  相似文献   

7.
In the process of updating existing PSHA maps in Central Asia, a first step is the evaluation of the seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by applying a data driven method. Following the Site Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (SASHA) [11], the evaluation of the probability of exceedance of any given intensity value over a fixed exposure time, is mainly based on the seismic histories available at different locations without requiring any a-priori assumption about seismic zonation. The effects of earthquakes not included in the seismic history can be accounted by propagating the epicentral information through a Intensity Prediction Equation developed for the analyzed area. In order to comply with existing building codes in the region that use macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, we evaluated the seismic hazard at 2911 localities using a macroseismic catalog composed by 5322 intensity data points relevant to 75 earthquakes in the magnitude range 4.6–8.3. The results show that for most of the investigated area the intensity having a probability of at least 10% to be exceeded in 50 years is VIII. The intensity rises to IX for some area struck by strong earthquakes in the past, like the Chou-Kemin-Chilik fault zone in northern Tien-Shan, between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, or in Gissar range between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These values are about one intensity unit less than those evaluated in the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Ulomov, The GSHAP Region 7 working group [29]). Moreover, hazard curves have been extracted for the main towns of Central Asia and the results compared with the estimates previously obtained. A good agreement has been found for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan), while a lower probability of occurrence of I=VIII has been obtained for Tashkent (Uzbekistan) and a larger one for I=IX in Almaty (Kazakhstan).  相似文献   

8.
A project has been implemented in recent years for assessing seismic hazard in the Italian territory on probabilistic bases, to be used as scientific background for the revision of the current seismic zonation. A consolidated approach was considered for the purpose; seismic hazard was estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration and macroseismic intensity. As the computer code employed allows the user to make specific choices on some input data, some rather unorthodox decisions were taken regarding earthquake catalogue completeness, seismicity rates, boundaries of the seismogenic zones, definition of the maximum magnitude, attenuation relation, etc. The overwhelming amount of geological and seismological data for Italy (just consider, for example, that the earthquake catalogue collects events which occurred over the last ten centuries) permits the operator to make different choices, more or less cautiously. It is quite interesting, then, to evaluate the influence of the specific choices on the final hazard results as a comparison to traditional possibilities. The tests performed clearly indicate the critical choices and quantify their contribution. In particular, we consider thorough comprehension of the space geometry of the earthquake source boundaries and the adequacy of the attenuation relation in modelling the radiation pattern very important.  相似文献   

9.
Further information on the macroseismic field in the Balkan area   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Papazachos and Papaioannou (1997) (called PP97 hereinafter) studied the macroseismic field in the Balkan area (Greece, Albania, former Yugoslavia, Bulgaria and western Turkey) with the purpose of deriving attenuation and scaling relations useful for seismic hazard assessment and study of historical earthquakes. In his comment, Trifunac suggests that our analysis might exhibit certain bias for all countries except Greece due to problems mainly associated with the database (completeness, etc.), conversion of local intensity scales used in the Balkan countries, as well as to the local variations of the attenuation relation due to the variation of the geotectonic environment in this area. Specifically, his most important comments can be summarized as follows: a) The large participation of Greek data probably biased the scaling relations proposed in the study. b) The conversion relations used between local macroseismic scales are less accurate than their proposed such relations. c) The variation of attenuation (geometrical and anelastic) in different regions of the study area is important and local relations (instead of the proposed single relation) should be determined for seismic hazard assessment. In the following, we study in detail each of these possible bias sources. Additional work on the macroseismic field of the Balkan area shows that none of the previously described factors, suggested by Trifunac, introduces bias in the results presented by PP97. Specifically, it is shown that the database used by PP97 fulfills the basic requirements for a reliable determinations of attenuation and scaling relations proper for seismic hazard assessment in all five countries of this area. Evidence is presented that no strong geographical variation of the attenuation of macroseismic intensities of shallow earthquakes is observed. Relations between local version of intensity scales suggested by Shebalin et al. (1974) are shown to be reliable. Finally, it is demonstrated that national practices for estimation of macroseismic intensities may affect the results of seismic hazard assessment but proper formulation can be applied (PP97) which allows to take into account such differences in national practices. This formulation allows also to introduce and correct for anisotropic radiation at the seismic source as well as the incorporation of site effects.  相似文献   

10.
This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for updating the seismic hazard curves. The methodology is based on the comparison of predictive exceedance rates of a fixed acceleration level (given by the seismic hazard curves) and the observed exceedance rates in some selected sites. The application of the methodology needs, firstly, the definition of a prior probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based in a logic tree. Each main branch corresponds to a probabilistic model of calculus of seismic hazard. The method considers that, initially (or a priori), the weights of all branches of the logic tree are equivalent. Secondly, the method needs to compile the observations in the region. They are introduced in a database containing the recorded acceleration data (during the instrumental period). Nevertheless, the instrumental period in stable zones (as France) shows only very low acceleration levels recorded during a short observation period. Then, a method to enlarge the REX (number of observations) is presented taking into account the historical data and defining “synthetic” accelerations in the sites of observation. The synthetic REX allows to expand the period of observation and to increase the acceleration thresholds used in the Bayesian updating process. The application of the Bayesian approach leads to a new and more objective definition of the weights of each branch of the logic tree and, therefore, to new seismic hazard curves (mean and centiles). The Bayesian approach doesn’t change the probabilistic models (seismic hazard curves). It only modifies the weights of each branch of the logic tree.  相似文献   

11.
In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.  相似文献   

12.
The aim of this paper is to provide a complete and reliable macroseismic knowledge of the events that stroke a large area in Central Italy on 7 and 11 May 1984. Previous studies, together with original accounts integrated with new and unpublished information, have been gathered and examined in order to re-evaluate macroseismic intensities in terms of the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98). New intensity maps have been compiled; the total number of localities with available information for both the shocks increases from 1254 of the previous study to 1576. On the basis of the new dataset, the macroseismic magnitude of the first shock is MW 5.6 which is lower than the previous macroseismic computation (MW 5.7). Moreover, the topic of assessing macroseismic intensity in the presence of multiple shocks has been also investigated, proposing an unconventional approach to presenting the macroseismic data: an overall picture of the cumulative effects produced by all the seismic sequence is given to support a partial but faithful reconstruction of the second shock. This approach is inspired by the common experience in interpreting historical seismic sequences and gives a picture of the impact of the 1984 events on the territory.  相似文献   

13.
Earthquakes that occurred in the Baikal seismic region in 1725, 1742, 1769, and 1829 are studied on the basis of original macroseismic information. Due to the fact that their parameters were previously determined using the combination of macroseismic and paleoseismic data, the goal of our investigation is to verify how well the solutions agree with the macroseismic evidence. Careful examination of macroseismic data includes, first of all, the searching for original sources, which cannot be replaced by any other data types, for instance, paleoseismic information characterized by questionable reliability. The completeness of analysis is achieved when different components are inspected separately before mixing. In the case when unequivocal data interpretation is impossible, it is better to consider different alternative solutions characterized by relatively narrow error ranges. Variants can be weighted correspondingly (at least, evaluated qualitatively). Otherwise we have to deal with the so-called “average” solutions, often useless due to great determination errors. Magnitudes of all earthquakes estimated previously on the basis of macroseismic and paleoseismic data are not confirmed by the original macroseismic information, and revised magnitudes are essentially lower.  相似文献   

14.
In all European countries the will to conserve the building heritage is very strong. Unfortunately, large areas in Europe are characterised by a high level of seismic hazard and the vulnerability of ancient masonry structures is often relevant. The large number of monumental buildings in urban areas requires facing the problem with a methodology that can be applied at territorial scale, with simplified models which need little easily obtainable, data. Within the Risk-UE project, a new methodology has been stated for the seismic vulnerability assessment of monumental buildings, which considers two different approaches: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. Both models can be used with data of different reliability and depth. This paper illustrates the theoretical basis and defines the parameters of the two models. An application to an important church is presented.  相似文献   

15.
It is proposed that some possible macroseismic epicenters can be determined quickly from the relationship that the microseismic epicenters located by instruments bear with faults.Based on these so-called macroseismic epicenters,we can make fast seismic hazard estimation after a shock by use of the empirical distribution model of seismic intensity.In comparison with the method that uses the microseismic epicenters directly,this approach can increase the preccision of fast seismic hazard estimation.Statistical analysis of 133 main earthquakes in China was made.The result shows that the deviation distance between the microseismic epicenter and macroseismic epicenter falls within the range of 35km for 88% earthquakes of the total and within the range of 35to 75km for the remaining ones.Then,we can take the area that has the microseismic epicenter as its center and is 35km in radius as the area for emphatic analysis,and take the area within 75km around the microseismic epicenter as the area for general analysis.The relation between the 66 earthquake cases on the N-S Seismic Belt in China and the spatial distribution characteristics of faults and the results of focal mechanism solution were analyzed in detail.We know from the analysis that the error of instrumental epicenter determination is not the only factor that gives effects to the deviation of the macroseismic epicenter.In addiditon to it,the fault size,fault distribution,fault activity,fault intersection types,earthquake magnitude,etc,are also main affecting factors.By sorting out ,processing and analyzing these affecting factors,the principle and procedures for quickly determining the possible position of the macroseismic epicenter were set up.Taking these as a basis and establishing a nationwide database of faults that contains relevant factors,it is possible to apply this method in practical fast estimation of seismic hazard.  相似文献   

16.
Macroseismic intensity data plays an important role in the process of seismic hazard analysis as well in developing of reliable earthquake loss models. This paper presents a physical-based model to predict macroseismic intensity attenuation based on 560 intensity data obtained in Iran in the time period 1975–2013. The geometric spreading and energy absorption of seismic waves have been considered in the proposed model. The proposed easy to implement relation describes the intensity simply as a function of moment magnitude, source to site distance and focal depth. The prediction capability of the proposed model is assessed by means of residuals analysis. Prediction results have been compared with those of other intensity prediction models for Italy, Turkey, Iran and central Asia. The results indicate the higher attenuation rate for the study area in distances less than 70 km.  相似文献   

17.
The earthquake of February 1 (January 21 in the Julian Calendar), 1725 was for a long time considered not only the earliest precisely dated historical seismic event in eastern Siberia, but also the most powerful earthquake for the entire period of recorded seismic events in the region: M = 8.2 (Novyi katalog…, 1977). The epicenter location (Stanovoy Upland) and the magnitude of the event were assessed on the basis of very scanty historical data, as well as using paleoseismogeological information. The February 1, 1725 event received the name “The Great East Siberian” earthquake and served for decades as decisive evidence for the assessment of the seismic hazard and seismic zoning of the northeastern flank of the Baikal rift zone. However, the solution of the focal parameters in the (Novyi katalog…, 1977) has caused serious doubts. In this paper a newly elaborated version is proposed that is based on a detailed reevaluation of the initially known macroseismic information, as well as additional historical data that previously had not come to the attention of seismologists. As the result, a different solution of the focal parameters (51.8° N; 113.0° E, eastern Transbaikalia) and a significantly lower magnitude (M = 6.0) compared with the parameters given in (Novyi katalog…, 1977) were obtained. The presented solution makes us more attentive to the estimates of seismic hazard in east Transbaikalia based on historical data, as well as to the historical data themselves.  相似文献   

18.
In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previous work through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes.  相似文献   

19.
A modelling of the observed macroseismic intensity of historical and instrumental earthquakes in southern Spain is proposed, with the aim of determining the macroseismic parameters for seismic hazard evaluation in a region in which the characterization of intensity distribution of seismic events shows different levels of difficulty referable to the complex faults system of the area in study. The adopted procedure allows an analytical determination of epicenters and principal attenuation directions of earthquakes with a double level of verification with reference to the maximum shaking area and structural lineaments of the region, respectively. The analyses, carried out on a suitable number of events, highlight, therefore, some elements for a preliminary characterization of a seismic zonation on the basis of the consistency between seismic intensity distribution of earthquakes and corresponding structural framework.  相似文献   

20.
Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy. This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in the magnitude range M w = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit.  相似文献   

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