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新版地震区划图地震活动性模型与参数确定 总被引：11，自引：4，他引：7
地震活动性模型和地震动预测模型是概率地震危险性分析的两个核心。在新版地震区划图中,依据板内地震活动空间不均匀性分布的特点,在概率地震危险性分析方法(CPSHA)中采用了由地震统计区、背景潜在震源区和构造潜在震源区构成的三级层次性潜在震源区模型,并构建了相应的地震活动性模型。本文在论述CPSHA方法及其地震活动性模型基本概念的基础上,重点介绍了新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的三级潜在震源区模型的构成、地震活动性假定和基本特点,同时,也对新版地震区划图地震活动性模型的重要参数确定思路、方法与结果进行了介绍。本文将为更好地认识与理解我国新版地震动参数区划图提供有益的参考。 相似文献
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新地震区划图潜在震源区划分的主要技术特色 总被引：13，自引：7，他引：6
简要介绍了新地震区划图潜在震源区划分方案的形成过程,重点分析了潜在震源区三级划分、东西部地区潜在震源区划分技术途径的差异、不同级别活动块体边界带对高震级潜在震源区划分的控制作用、发震构造模型及其在潜在震源区划分中的应用等主要技术特色.共划分出29个地震带、77个地震构造区和1199个潜在震源区.与中国地震动参数区划图(2001)中综合方案相比,东西部地区潜在震源区的个数都有较大的增加,其中东部地区体现在震级上限6.0、6.5和7.0级的中强潜在震源区个数的明显增加,与划分工作中加强了该地区中强地震发震构造的判识研究相关;而西部地区体现在震级上限7.5和8.0级的高震级潜在震源区个数的大幅度增加,与划分工作中注重了活动块体边界带高震级潜在震源区划分,以及强调应用发震构造模型指导潜在震源区划分的技术特色相协调. 相似文献
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新地震区划图地震构造区划分的原则和方法——以中国东部中强地震活动区为例 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
在新编全国地震区划图潜在震源区划分工作中,采用了三级划分的技术思路,即在地震统计区内先划分出地震构造区,以控制地震统计区内地震构造和地震活动的差异性,然后,在地震构造区内再进行潜在震源区划分。地震构造区划分是新编全国地震区划图潜在震源区划分工作中的一个关键环节。本文论述了地震构造区的定义、作用、划分原则和依据等。介绍了中国东部地区地震构造区划分方案,并以东北地震区和华南沿海地震带为例,对地震构造区划分方案进行了详细论述。 相似文献
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新一代《中国地震动参数区划图》(GB18306—2015),采用近几年地震监测资料、最新活断层探测成果,首次考虑了极罕遇地震影响,采用新的技术方法进行编制,于2016年6月1日正式实施。由于潜在震源区的划分、地震活动性参数、衰减关系等发生变化,使河北省部分地震动参数发生变化。 相似文献
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新编制的地震动参数区划图采用了潜在震源区三级划分方案,以体现背景地震活动空间分布的不均匀性,并在地震构造区内归纳出统一的地震构造模型.本文根据西南地区潜在震源区三级划分的成果,分析了龙门山地震统计区内的龙门山和成都地震构造区的基本特征,历史地震活动强度及频度,主要活动构造的构造变形样式,建立了地震构造区的发震构造模型,确定了构造区的本底地震及划分构造源的地震构造标志.同时,提出了确定背景源空间分布函数的简单方法. 相似文献
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本文介绍的长期地震区划图，是在现有资料和认识水平下，先将全国划分成７３９个具有不同最大地震的潜在震源区，再根据区域地震烈度衰减关系，估算出近３万个计算控制点上的最大影响烈度值，并在此基础上编制成图，该图反映了我国地震活动与构造活动性空间分布的不均匀性，该图可以作为地震灾害损失估计与震害防御方面的基础资料，也可在规划布局特别重要的工程建设项目及初步选址时参考。 相似文献
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潜在震源区不确定性因素分析 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5
本文根据洪华生(Der Kiureghian-Ang)断层破裂模型,对不同尺度的潜在震源区及各种震源参数进行了地震危险性数值计算。分析了潜在震源区划分范围,震级上限M_u及β值等地震活动性参数的不确定性对地震危险性分析的影响,其结果可供地震区划及工程地震等工作者参考。 相似文献
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本文概述了“场地地震危险度评估专家系统”课题组６年工作的主要成果和智能辅助地震区划系统ＩＡＳＨＥＳ的组成及测试结果，着重叙述了潜辰源区两级划分的思想，Ａ级潜在辰原区地震活动趋势估计和Ｂ级潜在震源区划分及震级上限判定所依据的专家知识，以及适用于专家系统的Ｂ级潜在震源区加权系数的确定方法。 相似文献
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Liu Human Zhu Min Pan Keqi Yang Liping Tao Xiaxin Zhang Yuming Dong Ruishu Wang Liangmou and Du RuimingInstitute of Engineering Mechanics SSB Harbin China Institute of Geology SSB Beijing China Computer Application Department Harbin University of Architecture Engineering Harbin China 《中国地震研究》1996,(4)
In this paper,the structure of the intelligence-aided seismic zonation system IASHES and its validation are briefly introduced.Emphasis is placed on the two rank scheme of potential seismic source areas; an expert subsystem for estimating the seismicity trends of rank A source areas; an expert subsystem for delineation of rank B source areas; an expert subsystem for judgment of upper limit of magnitude of rank B source areas,and an improved procedure for determination of weighting factors of rank B source areas,which is specially suitable to ES(Expert systems). 相似文献
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The Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China(1990)was based on the probabilistic method of seismic hazard analysis.In compiling the map,the characteristics of inhomogeneity of earthquake distribution both in space and time in China are considered sufficiently,and some necessary modifications in the model of seismic hazard analysis are carried out.Based on the analysis of the seismic activity and seismotectonic environment,26 seismic provinces are divided first as the statistical elements of the seismicity analysis; the seismic potential source areas are then divided in the seismic provinces.The 733 potential source areas with various upper limit magnitudes have been divided in the country.According to the reliable time domain of earthquake data with various magnitude intervals,the b values in magnitude-frequency relationship are calculated in the seismic provinces.According to the analysis of the inhomogeneity of seismicity distribution both in space and time,the annual average occurrence rates of the eart 相似文献
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K. W. Campbell P. C. Thenhaus T. P. Barnhard D. B. Hampson 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2002,22(9-12):743-754
We developed a seismic hazard model for Taiwan that integrates all available tectonic, seismicity, and seismic hazard information in the region to provide risk managers and engineers with a model they can use to estimate earthquake losses and manage seismic risk in Taiwan. The seismic hazard model is composed of two major components: a seismotectonic model and a ground-shaking model. The seismotectonic model incorporates earthquakes that are expected to occur on the Ryukyu and Manila subduction zones, on the intermediate-depth Wadati-Benioff seismicity zones, on the active crustal faults, and within seismotectonic provinces. The active crustal faults include the Chelungpu fault zone, the source of the damaging MW 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, and the Huangchi-Hsiaoyukeng fault zone that forms the western boundary of the Taipei Basin. The ground-shaking model uses both US, worldwide, and Taiwanese attenuation relations to provide robust estimates of peak ground acceleration and response spectral acceleration on a reference site condition for shallow crustal and subduction zone earthquakes. The ground shaking for other site conditions is obtained by applying a nonlinear soil-amplification factor defined in terms of the average shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil profile, consistent with the methodology used in the current US and proposed Taiwan building codes. 相似文献
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A seismic source model is presented for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses to be conducted for sites within the
Buller–NW Nelson region of New Zealand. The application of common probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methodology
for sites in this region has been complicated by the long-held suspicion that the observed rates of seismic activity are high
and not representative of long-term earthquake activity. However, recent analyses of geological, seismicity and geodetic data
indicate that the extent of this anomaly may have been overestimated and that current rates of seismic activity within this
region are likely to continue into the foreseeable future. Probable bounds for the most appropriate long-term rates of seismic
activity are estimated after considering all available sources of constraint. These include geodetic analyses, plate-motion
modelling, finite element modelling, structural geological considerations, paleoseismic information, tree-ring analyses, precarious
rock information, observed seismicity and fundamental mechanics. A suite of fault sources is identified, and the observed
seismicity is partitioned between these sources and a background source using Bayesian inference, and then analysed to obtain
a magnitude–frequency distribution for each seismic source. The annual moment release rate for the region, resulting from
the identified and characterised sources, is shown to be consistent with available constraints. Consequently, it is demonstrated
that the observed seismicity in the Buller–NW Nelson region can be used to model future earthquake occurrence within the region
and that standard PSHA may therefore be implemented within the region. 相似文献
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The occurrence of the Algiers earthquake (M 6.8) of May 21, 2003, has motivated the necessity to reassess the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria. The fact that this destructive earthquake took place in an area where there was no evidence of previous significant earthquakes, neither instrumental nor historical, strongly encourages us to review the seismic hazard map of this region. Recently, the probabilistic seismic hazard of northern Algeria was computed using the spatially smoothed seismicity methodology. The catalog used in the previous computation was updated for this review, and not only includes information until June 2003, but also considers a recent re-evaluation of several historical earthquakes. In this paper, the same methodology and seismicity models are utilized in an effort to compare this methodology against an improved and updated seismic catalog. The largest mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) values are obtained in northernmost Algeria, specifically in the central area of the Tell Atlas. These values are of the order of 0.48 g for a return period of 475 years. In the City of Algiers, the capital of Algeria, and approximately 50 km from the reported epicenter of this latest destructive earthquake, a new mean PGA value of 0.23 g is obtained for the same return period. This value is 0.07 g greater than that obtained in the previous computation. In general, we receive greater seismic hazard results in the surrounding area of Algiers, especially to the southwest. The main reason is not this recent earthquake by itself, but the significant increase in the mmax magnitude in the seismic source where the city and the epicenter are included. 相似文献
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本文在组合模式和立交模式的基础上提出了预报中、强地震的动态空区法，应用该法对我国大震进行了回顾性检验。结果表明，这一方法比单空区确定地震危险区有重要改进。文中还讨论了由动态空区出现的频次增多、地震共轭条带以及中小地震活动性加剧等判定震源断层的致锁和解锁时间，由此预测未来主震的震级和发震时间。 相似文献
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利用北京昌平南口地区的地震活动性、震源参数与介质特性等对南口山前断裂进行断层分段，结果表明该断层各段的地震学特征差异明显，与地质学手段所得到的部分结果是一致的 相似文献
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INTRODUCTION Withrapideconomicdevelopment,deficiencyofelectricalpowerisbecomingincreasinglysevere.Therefore,theconstructionofmorehydropowerstationsinSouthwestChinawherehydropowerresources areabundantisinevitable.Presently,severalcascadepowerstationsarepla… 相似文献