共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 218 毫秒
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(一)依据太阳活动的长期变化规律来看,目前正处在太阳活动第22周(偶数周)峰年之后。按太阳黑子相对数的年平均值来看,1989年(峰年)为157.6,1990年为142.1,1991年为145.3,1992年为94.3,1993年后越来越小。预计1995年,太阳活动将继续减小,但不会是极小,即本周期尚未结束。据已有的研究,太阳活动双周中,地震的频度与强度都比单周中的高得多,且越趋向谷年期,新疆附近,北京以东和川滇省的大部分地区越可能发生大地震。这些历史情况也值得注意。 相似文献
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本文讨论了太阳黑子相对数和南天山带强震迁移的11年周期,发现两者有很好的对应关系。太阳黑子处低潮时,地震易在乌恰地区发生;而太阳黑子处高潮时,地震则迁移到乌什附近。1985年8月23日乌恰M=7.6级地震,正处于太阳活动第21周的谷值,其震中纬度与强震迁移曲线所预示的纬度值仅差0.14°。 相似文献
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全球性地震活动与太阳活动的关系 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
分析研究了太阳活动,包括太阳黑子相对数、太阳10.7 cm射电流量、以及太阳质子事件与M6的地震之间的关系．发现:① 在太阳活动的极小年附近,地震活动频繁;而多数在太阳黑子极大的后一年,也就是说在太阳极区磁极性反转时期,地震活动相对少些;② 在太阳活动极小年,地震发生频数与上个太阳黑子相对数极大年均值、10.7 cm射电流量极大年均值和整个活动周的太阳质子事件数有非常好的正相关关系,与太阳质子事件的关系尤为密切;③ 按上述相关性,曾预测1995～1997年是地震活动非常频繁的时段．文中还对上述几点作了简要的物理探讨． 相似文献
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在《太阳活动与地震的关系》[1]这篇论文的前半部分中,作者统计分析了1877年至1976年我国大陆≥7级地震和太阳黑子资料,试图找出太阳黑子年平均相对数(即年平均伏尔夫数)、太阳活动11年周期极值期与地震之间的关系。但是,由于统计中的假设检验部分出现了原则性错误,由此而得出的一些结论——也是这篇文章的主要结论我们认为是不正确的。下面就这一问题与作者商榷。 相似文献
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本文根据苏黎世天文台太阳黑子11年周期资料和太阳黑子磁场磁性变化周期特征，构建了太阳黑子磁场磁性指数MI(Magnetic Index)时间序列.分析表明：太阳活动磁性周期平均长度为222年，但是每个周期长度是不相等的；多数情况周期短时磁性指数较大，对应太阳活动水平强；周期变长时磁性指数较小，对应太阳活动水平较弱；太阳黑子磁场磁性指数序列也具有80～90年的世纪周期. 进一步研究指出，太阳黑子磁场磁性指数曲线由极小值升至极大值时期，太阳磁场南向，行星际磁场磁力线与地磁场磁力线重联，此时磁层为开磁层，太阳风将携带大量等离子体从向阳面进入地球磁层，从而使输入的动量、能量和物质大幅度增加，与北半球对流层增温时期对应；太阳黑子磁场磁性指数曲线由极大值下降至极小值时期，太阳磁场北向，与磁层顶地磁场同向，行星际磁场不会与地磁场发生重联，此时磁层为闭磁层，这种情况下，只有少数带电粒子能够穿越磁力线进入地球磁层，与北半球对流层降温时期对应. 相似文献
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基于之前创建的行星会合指数运动学方程,发现太阳质心具有平均准22年向太阳系质心靠近(有时近似重合)的轨道运动周期.在整个太阳系角动量守恒的前提下,推出太阳自转角动量和太阳绕转角动量之和守恒.二者角动量转换造成太阳自转角动量变化和太阳绕转角动量变化具有互为反向的准22年变化规律.太阳自转角速度变化(dω/dt)图像与太阳黑子磁性指数图像具有一致对应关系,这种对应关系可以从物理机制上对太阳活动周相位变化和太阳活动强弱变化进行解释,这为预测太阳活动提供了一种有效方法.本研究为太阳活动替代性指标指代的双世纪周期和2403年哈尔斯塔(Hallstatt)周期规律找到了理论根据. 相似文献
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Using the characteristic
values of sunspot number variations during the descent and ascent of solar cycles,a neural network is designed to
make long-term predications of the ascending period and the maximum smoothed monthly mean
sunspot number for the Solar Cycle 23. Moreover,the factor of geomagnetic disturbance is also added as an
input. The trained and tested results from Solar Cycle 12 to 22 have been obtained.
Finally,the
predictions of the ascending period and the maximum smoothed monthly mean sunspot number
are given for Solar Cycle 23. 相似文献
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GPS（Global Positioning System）周跳是一种GPS信号异常现象.研究发现一定仰角以上的GPS周跳与电离层闪烁有关,是强电离层闪烁造成的GPS载波信号短时失锁现象,因此其可作为表征电离层闪烁效应的参量.本文通过分析由中国低纬度地区GPS台站原始观测数据提取的GPS周跳发生率与地方时、季节、太阳活动以及磁活动之间的关系,开展电离层闪烁效应与这几种参量之间关系的模式化研究.研究结果表明：（1）周跳发生率存在着地方时分布,发生时段主要在日落19：00LT后到午夜02：00LT之前,发生次数在22：00LT左右达到极大,然后缓慢减少,这一变化特点可以用自变量为地方时的Chapman函数形式来描述;（2）周跳发生率存在年变化特点,主要发生在年积日45~135天（春分季节）和225~315天（秋分季节）,可以通过高斯函数来描述每个分季闪烁效应的变化特点;（3）可以利用太阳辐射指数F10.7作为描述周跳随太阳活动周变化的参量,根据周跳随太阳活动周的变化特点,我们使用一个以F10.7为自变量的三次函数来描述这种变化;（4）电离层闪烁与磁活动的关系比较复杂,由于大多数情况下表现为磁活动对电离层闪烁的抑制作用,在本研究中使用一个以地磁活动指数Ap为自变量的的平方根函数来拟合这种变化. 相似文献
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Use of a watershed hydrologic model to estimate interbasin groundwater flow in a Costa Rican rainforest 
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下载免费PDF全文 The watershed hydrologic model TOPMODEL was used to estimate interbasin groundwater flow (IGF) into a small lowland rainforest watershed in Costa Rica. IGF is a common hydrological process but often difficult to quantify. Four‐year simulations (2006–2009) using three different model approaches gave estimates of IGF that were very similar to each other (10.1, 10.2, and 9.8 m/year) and to an earlier estimate (10.0 m/year) based on 1998–2002 data from a budget study that did not use a hydrologic simulation model, providing confidence in the new estimates and suggesting each of the three model approaches is viable. Results show no significant temporal variation in IGF during 2006–2009 (or between this period and the earlier study from 1998–2002). Simulations of the 16 consecutive 3‐month periods in 2006–2009 gave 16 values of IGF rate with a mean (10.1 m/year, standard deviation = 0.6 m/year) very similar to the estimates above from the 4‐year simulations. This suggests the modified version of TOPMODEL can be used to model stream discharge and estimate IGF for sub‐annual time periods during which change in water storage is not necessarily equal to zero. Thus, simple watershed models may be used to estimate IGF based on even relatively short calibration periods, making such models useful tools in the study of this widespread hydrological process that affects water and chemical fluxes and budgets but is often difficult and costly to quantify. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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应用基于Morlet小波变换的一种新的定量划分地震活跃期或平静期的分析方法,研究了华南和广西地区1900～2003年间浅源地震年释放能量的时间序列,对研究区中强地震活动的周期性特征有了新的认识。研究发现,华南地区的地震具有17a,3a和8a三个活动主周期,广西地区的地震具有29a,11a和16a三个活动主周期。根据目前中强震活动具有的周期性,结合历史地震活动情况,对研究区未来几年的地震活动趋势进行了预测。 相似文献
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The well-known 11-year cycle in low cloud cover amount for Solar Cycle Number 22 and the trend with time for Solar Cycle Number 23 are interpreted as being due to similar changes, but of opposite phase, in the mean global surface temperature of the Earth. An analysis of cloud amounts in two higher altitude bands shows that they, and the surface temperature, are roughly in phase with each other. The suggested mechanism to explain this result is that a warming of the Earth’s surface causes low clouds to rise and to be reclassified in the next upper category. The energetics of the process are shown to be satisfactory for this to be the correct explanation. 相似文献
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Long Term Time Variability of Cosmic Rays and Possible Relevance to the Development of Life on Earth
The well-known 11-year cycle in low cloud cover amount for Solar Cycle Number 22 and the trend with time for Solar Cycle Number
23 are interpreted as being due to similar changes, but of opposite phase, in the mean global surface temperature of the Earth.
An analysis of cloud amounts in two higher altitude bands shows that they, and the surface temperature, are roughly in phase
with each other. The suggested mechanism to explain this result is that a warming of the Earth’s surface causes low clouds
to rise and to be reclassified in the next upper category. The energetics of the process are shown to be satisfactory for
this to be the correct explanation. 相似文献
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Better parameterization of a hydrological model can lead to improved streamflow prediction. This is particularly important for seasonal streamflow forecasting with the use of hydrological modelling. Considering the possible effects of hydrologic non‐stationarity, this paper examined ten parameterization schemes at 12 catchments located in three different climatic zones in east Australia. These schemes are grouped into four categories according to the period when the data are used for model calibration, i.e. calibration using data: (1) from a fixed period in the historical records; (2) from different lengths of historical records prior to prediction year; (3) from different climatic analogue years in the past; and (4) data from the individual months. Parameterization schemes were evaluated according to model efficiency in both the calibration and verification period. The results show that the calibration skill changes with the different historic periods when data are used at all catchments. Comparison of model performance between the calibration schemes indicates that it is worth calibrating the model with the use of data from each individual month for the purpose of seasonal streamflow forecasting. For the catchments in the winter‐dominant rainfall region of south‐east Australia, a more significant shift in rainfall‐runoff relationships at different periods was found. For those catchments, model calibration with the use of 20 years of data prior to the prediction year leads to a more consistent performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Year‐round estimation of soil moisture content using temporally variable soil hydraulic parameters 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Soil moisture plays a key role in the hydrological cycle as it controls the flux of water between soil, vegetation, and atmosphere. This study is focused on a year‐round estimation of soil moisture in a forested mountain area using the bucket model approach. For this purpose, three different soil moisture models are utilised. The procedure is based on splitting the whole year into two complement periods (dormant and vegetation). Model parameters are allowed to vary between the two periods and also from year to year in the calibration procedure. Consequently, two sets of average model parameters corresponding to dormant and vegetation seasons are proposed. The process of splitting is strongly supported by the experimental data, and it enables us to variate saturated hydraulic conductivity and pore‐size characterisation. The use of the two different parameter sets significantly enhances the simulation of two (Teuling and Troch model and soil water balance model‐green–ampt [SWBM‐GA]) out of three models in the 6‐year period from 2009 to 2014. For these two models, the overall Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient increased from 0.64 to 0.79 and from 0.55 to 0.80. The third model (the Laio approach) proved to be insensitive to parameter changes due to its insufficient drainage prediction. The variability of the warm and cold parameter sets between particular years is more pronounced in the warm periods. The cold periods exhibited approximately similar character during all 6 years. 相似文献
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鲜水河断裂带地震活动特征及强震发生随时间增长概率 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
作者等仔细分析了鲜水河断裂带从１７２５年到现在的地震资料，并利用乌莫洛夫Ｔ─Ｓ、Ｍ为参数的作图法及强震发生随时间增长概率，绘制了地震活动图件及地震发生概率曲线以及Ｍ─Ｔ图和鲜水河断裂应变释放曲线。根据这些资料可以清楚地看出鲜水河断裂带自１７２５年到现在可分为两个大的活动周期，其中６．０级以上地震有由康定依次向甘孜迁移的特点。在每一个大的地震活动周期中，地震基本上两次重复由康定向甘孜迁移的过程，而且较强地震多发生在第二次迁移过程中，１９８２年甘孜地震标志着断裂带在第二幕地震活动高潮中，中强震已经完成了最后一次由断裂带东南端向西北端迁移的过程。同时考虑到断裂带应变释放曲线的特征，估计鲜水河断裂带目前已进入新的平静阶段。前两个大的活动周期之间，平静了近一个世纪。按历史上地震定向迁移规律，估计在新的活动期地震仍将从康定方向开始，逐步向甘孜发展。 相似文献
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The paper presents data on flux variations of ionizing EUV radiation for wavelengths shorter than 130 nm and in L-alpha hydrogen line on the basis of measurements performed on-board a Russian Earth-orbiting and interplanetary spacecrafts in the period since 1978 to 1997. These data were received by using common heritage instrumentation installed on four PROGNOZ satellites, INTERBALL-1, PHOBOS, and the geosynchronous meteorological satellite ELECTRO. Though the time series of observations is not continuous, it gives a possibility to estimate flux variations in certain periods of time and during 11–year cycle. During quiet periods of solar activity (except for flares) a level of diurnal variations is rather low, it being equal to about 3%. Radiation changes in L-alpha line from maximum to minimum in an 11–year cycle of solar activity achieves 200% and increases in the range of short waves. Data measured onboard the Russian satellites are compared with data obtained by Solar Mesospheric Explorer. 相似文献