首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Stochastic models are recent but unavoidable tools for snow avalanche hazard mapping that can be described in a general system framework. For the computation of design return periods, magnitude and frequency have to be evaluated. The magnitude model consists of a set of physical equations for avalanche propagation associated with a statistical formalism adapted to the input–output data structure. The friction law includes at least one latent friction coefficient. The Bayesian paradigm and the associated simulation techniques assist considerably in performing the inference and taking estimation errors into account for prediction. Starting from the general case, simplifying hypotheses allows computing the predictive distribution of high return periods on a case-study. Only release and runout altitudes are considered so that the model can use the French database. An inversible propagation model makes it possible to work with the latent friction coefficient as if it is observed. Prior knowledge is borrowed from an avalanche path with similar topographical characteristics. Justifications for the working hypotheses and further developments are discussed. In particular, the whole approach is positioned with respect to both deterministic and stochastic hydrology.  相似文献   

2.
For snow avalanches, passive defense structures are generally designed by considering high return period events. However, defining a return period turns out to be tricky as soon as different variables are simultaneously considered. This problem can be overcome by maximizing the expected economic benefit of the defense structure, but purely stochastic approaches are not possible for paths with a complex geometry in the runout zone. Therefore, in this paper, we include a multivariate numerical avalanche propagation model within a Bayesian decisional framework. The influence of a vertical dam on an avalanche flow is quantified in terms of local energy dissipation with a simple semi-empirical relation. Costs corresponding to dam construction and the damage to a building situated in the runout zone are roughly evaluated for each dam height–hazard value pair, with damage intensity depending on avalanche velocity. Special attention is given to the poor local information to be taken into account for the decision. Using a case study from the French avalanche database, the Bayesian optimal dam height is shown to be more pessimistic than the classical optimal height because of the increasing effect of parameter uncertainty. It also appears that the lack of local information is especially critical for a building exposed to the most extreme events only. The residual hazard after dam construction is analyzed and the sensitivity to the different modelling assumptions is evaluated. Finally, possible further developments of the approach are discussed.  相似文献   

3.
This paper presents a stochastic model to generate daily rainfall occurrences at multiple gauging stations in south Florida. The model developed in this study is a space–time model that takes into account the spatial as well as temporal dependences of daily rainfall occurrence based on a chain-dependent process. In the model, a Markovian method was used to represent the temporal dependence of daily rainfall occurrence and a direct acyclic graph (DAG) method was introduced to encode the spatial dependence of daily rainfall occurrences among gauging stations. The DAG method provides an optimal sequence of generation by maximizing the spatial dependence index of daily rainfall occurrences over the region. The proposed space–time model shows more promising performance in generating rainfall occurrences in time and space than the conventional Markov type model. The space–time model well represents the temporal as well as the spatial dependence of daily rainfall occurrences, which can reduce the complexity in the generation of daily rainfall amounts.  相似文献   

4.
Factors influencing the distance a disintegrating rock mass travels as it spreads across the landscape after detaching from a slope include the volume and mechanical properties of the material, local topography and the materials encountered in the runout path. Here we investigate the influence of runout‐path material on the mobility and final morphology of the Round Top rock avalanche deposit, New Zealand. This rock avalanche of mylonitic schist ran out over a planar surface of saturated fluvial gravel. Longitudinal ridges aligned radial to source grade into smaller aligned hummocks and digitate lobes in the distal reach. Soils and river gravels in the runout path are found bulldozed at elongate ridge termini where they formed local obstacles halting avalanche motion at these locations, thus aiding development of prominent elongate ridges on the deposit. Further travel over the disrupted substrate led to avalanche–substrate mixing at the base of the debris mass. Field observations combined with subsurface geophysical investigations and laboratory analogue models illustrate the processes of substrate deformation features at the Round Top rock avalanche. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
  相似文献   

6.
A crucial point in any methodology for avalanche hazard assessment is the evaluation of avalanche distance exceeded probability, i.e., the annual probability that any assigned location along a given path is reached or exceeded by an avalanche. Typically this problem is faced by estimating the snow volume in the starting zone that is likely to accumulate an average every T years by statistical analysis of snowfall record, and then using this volume as input to an appropriately calibrated avalanche dynamics model to determine the runout distancesfor this design event. This methodology identifies the areas that canbe affected by an avalanche for the considered value of the return period (i.e. the average interval of time for a certain event to repeat itself), ¯T. However, it does not allow us to evaluate the actual avalanche encounter probability for any given point in the runout zone. In the present work this probability is computed by numerical integration of the expression P(x) = ∫0 ∞ P*(V)f(V) dV, where f is the probabilitydensity function (PDF) of the avalanche release volume V, and P* is the probability of the point x being reached or passed by an avalanche if the release volume is V; this latter probability is calculated by avalanche dynamics simulations. The procedure is implemented using a one-dimensional hydraulic-continuum avalanche dynamic model, calibrated on data from different Italian Alpine ranges, and is applied to a real world hazard mapping problem.  相似文献   

7.
Two branches of Tangjiagou rock avalanche were triggered by Lushan earthquake in Sichuan Province, China on April 20th, 2013. The rock avalanche has transported about 1 500 000 m3 of sandstone from the source area. Based on discrete element modeling, this study simulates the deformation, failure and movement process of the rock avalanche. Under seismic loading, the mechanism and process of deformation, failure, and runout of the two branches are similar. In detail, the stress concentration occur firstly on the top of the mountain ridge, and accordingly, the tensile deformation appears. With the increase of seismic loading, the strain concentration zone extends in the forward and backward directions along the slipping surface, forming a locking segment. As a result, the slipping surface penetrates and the slide mass begin to slide down with high speed. Finally, the avalanche accumulates in the downstream and forms a small barrier lake. Modeling shows that a number of rocks on the surface exhibit patterns of horizontal throwing and vertical jumping under strong ground shaking. We suggest that the movement of the rock avalanche is a complicated process with multiple stages, including formation of the two branches, high-speed sliding, transformation into debris flows, further movement and collision, accumulation, and the final steady state. Topographic amplification effects are also revealed based on acceleration and velocity of special monitoring points. The horizontal and vertical runout distances of the surface materials are much greater than those of the internal materials. Besides, the sliding duration is also longer than that of the internal rock mass.  相似文献   

8.
The central focus of this work is to study the processes acting well below the surface of a moving rock or debris avalanche during travel over stationary substrate material. Small‐scale physical models at a linear scale of 1:104 used coal as avalanche analogue material and different granular material simulating sedimentary substrates varying in frictional resistance, thickness and relative basal boundary roughness, as well as inerodible, non‐deformable runout path conditions. Substrate materials with the least frictional resistance showed the greatest response to granular flow overriding, becoming entirely mobilized beneath and ahead of the moving mass and producing the longest runout observed with a unique deposit profile shape. With a smooth substrate basal contact, failure occurred along this plane and avalanche and substrate became coupled during runout. With a rough base, however, temporary force chains of grain contacts in the substrate prevailed longer, imparted their resistance to motion/shear into the granular flow, and the flow rear section consequently halted earlier than when moving over substrates with a weak base. Reducing substrate thickness diminished the effect of basal contact roughness on granular flow runout and deposit length. Inerodible, non‐deformable substrate conditions caused changes in granular flow behaviour from essentially en masse sliding on low‐friction surfaces to increasing granular agitation over rougher paths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Pyroclastic flows from the 1991 eruption of Unzen volcano,Japan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Pyroclastic flows from Unzen were generated by gravitational collapse of the growing lava dome. As soon as the parental lobe failed at the edge of the dome, spontaneous shattering of lava occurred and induced a gravity flow of blocks and finer debris. The flows had a overhanging, tongue-like head and cone- or rollershaped vortices expanding outward and upward. Most of the flows traveled from 1 to 3 km, but some flows reached more than 4 km, burning houses and killing people in the evacuated zone of Kita-kamikoba on the eastern foot of the volcano. The velocities of the flows ranged from 15 to 25 m/s on the gentle middle flank. Observations of the flows and their deposits suggest that they consisted of a dense basal avalanche and an overlying turbulent ash cloud. The basal avalanche swept down a topographic low and formed to tongue-like lobe having well-defined levees; it is presumed to have moved as a non-Newtonian fluid. The measured velocities and runout distances of the flows can be matched to a Bingham model for the basal avalanche by the addition of turbulent resistance. The rheologic model parameters for the 29 May flow are as follows: the density is 1300 kg/m3, the yield strength is 850 Pa, the viscosity is 90 Pa s, and the thickness of the avalanche is 2 m. The ash cloud is interpreted as a turbulent mixing layer above the basal avalanche. The buoyant portions of the cloud produced ash-fall deposits, whereas the dense portions moved as a surge separated from the parental avalanche. The ash-cloud surges formed a wide devastated zone covered by very thin debris. The initial velocities of the 3 June surges, when they detached from avalanches, are determined by the runout distance and the angle of the energy-line slope. A comparison between the estimated velocities of the 3 June avalanches and the surges indicates that the surges that extended steep slopes along the avalanche path, detached directly from the turbulent heads of the avalanches. The over-running surge that reached Kita-Kamikoba had an estimated velocity higher than that of the avalanche; this farther-travelled surge is presumed to have been generated by collapse of a rising ash-cloud plume.  相似文献   

10.
Stoopes and Sheridan have mapped a volcanic debris avalanche of Nevado de Colima which has an exceptionally long runout (120 km) and low fall-height to length ratio (H/L = 0.04). We present paleomagnetic results from this volcanic debris avalanche deposit which provide evidence that this avalanche was emplaced at elevated temperatures. The majority of samples, collected from lithic clasts in the volcanic debris avalanche deposit, exhibit two-component remanent magnetizations with a low-temperature component (25–350°C) which is well grouped about the geomagnetic field direction at Colima and a high-temperature component (350–580°C) which is randomly oriented. Although the temperature of the deposit most likely varied with distance from the volcanic source and the thickness of the deposit, our results suggest an emplacement temperature of approximately 350°C at intermediate distances (18–26 km) from the source. In order for the rock clasts (20–40 cm diameter) to be heated to these temperatures, the avalanche was most likely the results of a magmatic, Bezymianny-type eruption. The mixing of hot, juvenile gases with the clasts provides an explanation for the high degree of fluidization of this material, as evidenced by the long runout of this avalanche deposit.  相似文献   

11.
Giant volcanic landslides are one of the most hazardous geological processes due to their volume and velocity. Since the 1980 eruption and associated debris avalanche of Mount St. Helens hundreds of similar events have been recognised worldwide both on continental volcanoes and volcanic oceanic islands. However, the causes and mobility of these enormous mass movements remain unresolved. Tenerife exhibits three voluminous subaerial valleys and a wide offshore apron of landslide debris produced by recurrent flank failures with ages ranging from Upper Pliocene to Middle Pleistocene. We have selected the La Orotava landslide for analysis of its causes and mobility using a variety of simple numerical models. First, the causes of the landslide have been evaluated using Limit Equilibrium Method and 2D Finite Difference techniques. Conventional parameters including hydrostatic pore pressure and material strength properties, together with three external processes, dike intrusion, caldera collapse and seismicity, have been incorporated into the stability models. The results indicate that each of the external mechanism studied is capable of initiating slope failures. However, we propose that a combination of these processes may be the most probable cause for giant volcanic landslides. Second, we have analysed the runout distance of the landslide using a simple model treating both the subaerial and submarine parts of the sliding path. The effect of the friction coefficient, drag forces and hydroplaning has been incorporated into the model. The results indicate that hydroplaning particularly can significantly increase the mobility of the landslide, which may reach runout distances greater than 70 km. The models presented are not considered definite and have mainly a conceptual purpose. However, they provide a physical basis from which to better interpret these complex geologic phenomena and should be taken into account in the prediction of future events and the assessment of landslide related hazards.  相似文献   

12.
For a low-level geomagnetic satellite survey, for which the motion of the satellite converts spatial variation into temporal variation, the limit on accuracy may well be background temporal fluctuations. The sources of the temporal fluctuations are current systems external to the Earth and include currents induced in the Earth due to these sources. The internal sources consist primarily of two components, the main geomagnetic field with sources in the Earth's core and a crustal geomagnetic field.Power spectra of the vertical geomagnetic field internal component that would be observed by a spacecraft in circular orbit at various altitudes, due to satellite motion through the spatially varying geomagnetic field, are compared to power spectra of the natural temporal fluctuations of the geomagnetic field vertical component (natural noise) and to the power spectrum for typical fluxgate magnetometer instrument noise. The natural noise is shown to be greater than this typical instrument noise over the entire frequency range for which useful measurements of the geomagnetic field may be made, for all geomagnetic latitudes and all times. Thus there would be little benefit in reducing the instrument noise below the typical value of 10?4 gamma2 Hz?1 plus a 1/f component of 10 milligamma rms decade?1.For a given satellite altitude, there is a maximum frequency above which the natural noise is greater than the power spectrum of the crustal geomagnetic field vertical component. Below this maximum frequency, the situation is reversed. This maximum frequency depends on geomagnetic latitude (and to a lesser extent on time of day and season of year), being lower in the auroral zone than at lower latitudes. The maximum frequency is also lower at higher satellite altitudes. The maximum frequency determines the spatial resolution obtainable on a magnetic field map. The spatial resolution (for impulses) obtainable at low latitudes for a 100-km satellite altitude (possibly achievable by tethering a small satellite at this altitude to a space vehicle at a higher altitude) is 60 km, while at the auroral zone the obtainable spatial resolution is 100 km. At the higher satellite altitude of 300 km the obtainable spatial resolution is 230 km at low latitudes and 530 km at the auroral zone. At 500-km satellite altitude, the obtainable spatial resolution is 500 km at low latitudes, while maps cannot be made at all for the auroral zone unless the data are selected for “quiet” days.For the lower satellite altitudes, greater spatial resolution can be obtained than at higher altitudes. Furthermore since the crustal geomagnetic field power spectrum is larger at lower altitudes, the relative error due to the natural noise is less than for higher altitudes.  相似文献   

13.
Over 30 samples from bedrock and boulders from the Veliki vrh rock avalanche have been collected for surface exposure dating. The limestone rocks have been radiochemically treated to isolate and determine long-lived 36Cl by accelerator mass spectrometry. It could be shown that the Veliki vrh rock avalanche from the Košuta Mountain (Slovenia) event can be very likely linked to one of the major historical earthquakes in Europe happening on the 25th of January 1348. Taken into account independently determined denudation rates, inherited 36Cl originating from pre-exposure at shallow depths (20–55 m) could be calculated. The high amount of inherited 36Cl, i.e. 17–46% of the total 36Cl, makes this site not suitable for a precise determination of the 36Cl production rate as it was originally anticipated. Veliki vrh is a “classic” rock avalanche of high velocity. The slope failed in the upper part with a translational slide predominantly along the bedding planes, whereas dynamic fragmentation is the cause for further crushing of the material and the long runout.  相似文献   

14.
1INTRODUCTIONErgodichypothesisisoneofthebasicconceptsofmoderngeomorphology.Itsuggeststhatundercertaincircumstancessamplinginspacecanbeequivalenttosamplingthroughtime;andthatspace-timetransformationsarepermissibleasaworkingtool.Thisisbasedontheassumptionthat,whenindividualmembersofapopulationoflandformsarechangingregularlythroughtime,thespatialfrequencyofoccurrenceofgiventypesoflandformsisinverselyproportionaltotheirrateofchange(Chorley,etal.,1985).TheconceptofthecycleofDavis'erosioninwhi…  相似文献   

15.
Flowslides are a frequent type of natural disaster in loess areas and may result in the significant loss of properties and/or casualties. The Dagou flowslide is a typical event in a loess area and is accompanied by significant sediment entrainment. To analyze the mechanisms responsible for flowslides and to obtain the parameters for a runout analysis, a field investigation was conducted. Specimens were sampled on site to carry out laboratory tests, including a triaxial test, sieve analysis, and chemical component analysis. The parameters were used in the runout study employing an energy‐based runout model. An analytical entrainment model was adopted to calculate the entrainment after considering physical properties and the mechanism of the entrainment process of the loess. Finally, the entrainment model was incorporated into the runout model to simulate the post‐failure process of this case. Energy dissipation due to the deformation of slices was considered as it was thought to be important for a slide with a significant deformation. The simulation results were compared with the measurements, including runout distance, total volume, erosion depth, deposition height at different sections, and velocities at specific locations. The results indicate that the energy‐based runout model, together with the entrainment model, can capture the kinematic characteristics of the Dagou flowslide. Therefore, it is feasible to use this model to predict the runout characteristics of flowslides in similar areas. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Rock avalanches destroy and reshape landscapes in only a few minutes and are among the most hazardous processes on Earth. The surface morphology of rock avalanche deposits and the interaction with the underlying material are crucial for runout properties and reach. Water within the travel path is displaced, producing large impact waves and reducing friction, leading to long runouts. We hypothesize that the 0.2 km3 Holocene Eibsee rock avalanche from Mount Zugspitze in the Bavarian Alps overran and destroyed Paleolake Eibsee and left a unique sedimentological legacy of processes active during the landslide. We captured 9.5 km of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles across the rock avalanche deposits, with up to 120 m penetration depth and more than 34 000 datum points. The ERT profiles reveal up to ~50 m thick landslide debris, locally covering up to ~30 m of rock debris with entrained fine-grained sediments on top of isolated remnants of decametre-wide paleolake sediments. The ERT profiles allow us to infer processes involved in the interaction of the rock avalanche with bedrock, lake sediments, and morainal sediments, including shearing, bulging, and bulldozing. Complementary data from drilling, a gravel pit exposure, laboratory tests, and geomorphic features were used for ERT calibration. Sediments overrun by the rock avalanche show water-escape structures. Based on all of these datasets, we reconstructed both position and size of the paleolake prior to the catastrophic event. Our reconstruction of the event contributes to process an understanding of the rock avalanche and future modelling and hazard assessment. Here we show how integrated geomorphic, geophysical, and sedimentological approaches can provide detailed insights into the impact of a rock avalanche on a lake. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

17.
Many hydrological and agricultural studies require simulations of weather variables reflecting observed spatial and temporal dependence at multiple point locations. This paper assesses three multi-site daily rainfall generators for their ability to model different spatio-temporal rainfall attributes over the study area. The approaches considered consist of a multi-site modified Markov model (MMM), a reordering method for reconstructing space–time variability, and a nonparametric k-nearest neighbour (KNN) model. Our results indicate that all the approaches reproduce adequately the observed spatio-temporal pattern of the multi-site daily rainfall. However, different techniques used to signify longer time scale observed temporal and spatial dependences in the simulated sequences, reproduce these characteristics with varying successes. While each approach comes with its own advantages and disadvantages, the MMM has an overall advantage in offering a mechanism for modelling varying orders of serial dependence at each point location, while still maintaining the observed spatial dependence with sufficient accuracy. The reordering method is simple and intuitive and produces good results. However, it is primarily driven by the reshuffling of the simulated values across realisations and therefore may not be suited in applications where data length is limited or in situations where the simulation process is governed by exogenous conditioning variables. For example, in downscaling studies where KNN and MMM can be used with confidence.  相似文献   

18.
Information on the spatial and temporal origin of runoff entering the channel during a storm event would be valuable in understanding the physical dynamics of catchment hydrology; this knowledge could be used to help design flood defences and diffuse pollution mitigation strategies. The majority of distributed hydrological models give information on the amount of flow leaving a catchment and the pattern of fluxes within the catchment. However, these models do not give any precise information on the origin of runoff within the catchment. The spatial and temporal distribution of runoff sources is particularly intricate in semi‐arid catchments, where there are complex interactions between runoff generation, transmission and re‐infiltration over short temporal scales. Agents are software components that are capable of moving through and responding to their local environment. In this application, the agents trace the path taken by water through the catchment. They have information on their local environment and on the basis of this information make decisions on where to move. Within a given model iteration, the agents are able to stay in the current cell, infiltrate into the soil or flow into a neighbouring cell. The information on the current state of the hydrological environment is provided by the environment generator. In this application, the Connectivity of Runoff Model (CRUM) has been used to generate the environment. CRUM is a physically based, distributed, dynamic hydrology model, which considers the hydrological processes relevant for a semi‐arid environment at the temporal scale of a single storm event. During the storm event, agents are introduced into the model across the catchment; they trace the flows of water and store information on the flow pathways. Therefore, this modelling approach is capable of giving a novel picture of the temporal and spatial dynamics of flow generation and transmission during a storm event. This is possible by extracting the pathways taken by the agents at different time slices during the storm. The agent based modelling approach has been applied to two small catchments in South East Spain. The modelling approach showed that the two catchments responded differently to the same rainfall event due to the differences in the runoff generation and overland flow connectivity between the two catchments. The model also showed that the time of travel to the nearest flow concentration is extremely important for determining the connectivity of a point in the landscape with the catchment outflow. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
LiDAR data were used to quantify and analyse a rockfall event which occurred in 2003 in the Western Dolomites (Italian Alps). In addition to previously existing airborne laserscanning (ALS) data, high resolution terrestrial laserscanning (TLS) data were collected. By using the original point clouds, the volume, axial ratio and runout length of single boulders as well as the surface roughness in the runout zone of the rockfall were derived. The total volume of the rockfall event of approximately 10 000 m³ was estimated by a reconstruction of the pre‐event surface at the detachment zone. The analysis of the laser scanning data of the accumulation zone revealed a power law scaling for boulder volumes larger than 8 m³. The dependence of runout length on boulder volume is complex; it is moderated by particle sphericity. In addition, we used ALS and TLS data to derive the spatial distribution of surface roughness on the talus cone. TLS allow for more accurate roughness mapping than ALS data, but for most applications the point density of ALS data seems to be sufficiently high to derive measures of roughness. Different sampling approaches for plane fitting on the scale of 5 m did not show significant effects besides the computational time. The results of our analyses provide important perspectives for rockfall modelling and process understanding with potential applications in both ‘applied’ (natural hazards) and ‘pure’ geomorphological research. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
In this work, a fully nonparametric geostatistical approach to estimate threshold exceeding probabilities is proposed. To estimate the large-scale variability (spatial trend) of the process, the nonparametric local linear regression estimator, with the bandwidth selected by a method that takes the spatial dependence into account, is used. A bias-corrected nonparametric estimator of the variogram, obtained from the nonparametric residuals, is proposed to estimate the small-scale variability. Finally, a bootstrap algorithm is designed to estimate the unconditional probabilities of exceeding a threshold value at any location. The behavior of this approach is evaluated through simulation and with an application to a real data set.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号