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运用地震矩和实时概率模型,分别对东昆仑断裂带和阿尔金断裂带上的几个断裂段进行了地震危险性评估,得到的概率数据都属于小概率事件范围,说明未来100年内,这两个断裂带各段上发生与其历史上大小相当的地震的可能性很小。 相似文献
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根据历史地震资料考证、现场考察与综合分析，1765年5月1日发生在临洮南的一次中强破坏性地震其极震区位于卓尼、康乐交界的洮河连麓盆地附近的柳林、宗石一带，其名称应修改为卓尼-康乐地震，震级约5 1/2~6级，震中烈度可达Ⅷ度，极震区长轴方向大致与该区西秦岭北缘断裂带西段的锅麻滩断裂段东端相吻合。根据野外实地调查，锅麻滩断裂在极震区附近存在新活动的地质地貌现象，出露的断层剖面揭示出以左旋走滑为主兼具向北倾的正断特征，宏观地貌上沿断裂保留有断层陡坎、冲沟左旋位错等地貌标志。结合该区域构造应力场分析，本次卓尼-康乐地震发生在锅麻滩断裂段与漳县-黄香沟断裂段之间的左阶拉分区，是受区域应力影响引起断裂带在交汇部位与端点处应力集中所致。综合分析认为，锅麻滩断裂带东端是此次地震的发震构造。 相似文献
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西秦岭北缘断裂带的位移累积滑动亏损特征及其破裂分段性研究 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
根据西秦岭北缘断裂带的水平位移分组特征,定量计算了断裂端部和不连续部位的位移累积滑动亏损率,同时结合断裂带上的障碍体规模,滑动速率的差异,历史地震及古地震特征等,对断裂带进行了破裂分段性研究,结果表明,西秦岭北缘断裂带可以划分为鸳凤断裂,漳县断裂,锅麻滩断裂３条一级破裂段,６条二级破裂段。 相似文献
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海原断裂是中国西部的一条重要活动走滑断裂带，1920年沿该带发生的8.5级大震形成了长达230 km的地表破裂带和10 m的左旋走滑位移. 近10余年来，国内外学者对海原断裂开展了古地震研究，揭示出大量的古地震事件，为研究该断裂带上强震复发规律提供了重要的基础资料.本文利用这些古地震资料，采用泊松模型和布朗过程时间模型（Brownian passage time model），并考虑海原断裂带3个段落组合的不同尺度的破裂（单段破裂、双段破裂和全带破裂），经加权分析计算得到了海原断裂带未来百年强震（M6.7）复发的可能性及其震级分布. 计算结果表明，海原断裂带未来百年M6.7地震发生的可能性为0.035. 相似文献
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西秦岭北缘断裂带是青藏高原东北部一条左旋走滑为主的活动断裂带,其在黄香沟一段活动性较强,活动现象典型。对沿断裂带分布的地貌、地质体等晚第四纪位移量的研究表明,在黄香沟一带,断裂晚更新世晚期以来的水平位移量最大为40~60m;最小为6~8m,可能是一次滑动事件的特征位错量。断裂带上的位移具有分组特征,各组位移值之间具有6~8m的稳定增量。位移值的分组性和增量特征反映了该段断裂具有特征地震的活动特征,而7组位错值则反映了断裂7次特征活动事件。关于黄香沟一带与断裂相关的微地貌分析,也获得了大致相对应的事件次数。并由此初步推测,晚更新世晚期以来,该断裂带有过多次强烈活动,活动期次明显 相似文献
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海原活动断裂带的古地震与强震复发规律 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
海原断裂是中国西部的一条重要活动走滑断裂带, 1920年沿该带发生的8.5级强震形成了230 km长的地表破裂带和10 m的左旋走滑位移. 为了揭示这条重要发震断裂的强震活动规律, 沿断裂带的3个段落开挖了17个探槽, 揭示了大量的古地震事件, 并结合前人的研究结果, 利用古地震分析的逐次限定方法研究了海原断裂带的强震复发规律. 研究发现, 海原断裂带的3个段落具有分段差异的古地震活动历史; 古地震破裂有3种尺度, 即单段破裂、双段破裂和全段破裂. 另外, 整个海原断裂带的古地震丛集现象也十分明显, 第1丛集期在距今4600~6300 a期间, 第2丛集期发生在距今1000~2800 a期间. 海原断裂带的古地震活动习性对于认识大陆走滑断裂的破裂特征和强震复发规律具有十分重要的意义. 相似文献
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断裂带气体地球化学特征与形变特征之间的相关关系是建立具有物理预报思路断层气流动观测网络布设的重要课题。选择有大量温泉出露点且形变较剧烈的西秦岭北缘断裂带为研究对象,对跨断层形变测量场地进行断层土壤气剖面重合布设及现场测量,重点研究断层气分段性特征与断层形变、地震活动性特征耦合关系,探讨利用多种方法开展断裂带强震危险性分析的可能性。结果表明:断裂带土壤气地球化学特征和断层水准形变特征的分布具有良好相关关系,二者对比结果同时显示出西秦岭北缘断裂带中东段——武山段断层活动性相对活跃,渭源—漳县段次之,天水段断层相对闭锁的特征;且武山和甘谷走滑拉分区因流体活动的影响以中小地震活动为主,天水段和漳县段西部及与武山段交汇的盘古川地区,流体活动较弱,应变速率较小,存在孕育强震的可能。 相似文献
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由地震活动参数分析龙门山-岷山断裂带的现今活动习性与强震危险性 总被引：38，自引：0，他引：38
根据最近28年的区域台网地震资料,利用b值空间分布及断裂带分段的多地震活动参数值的组合方法,结合历史强震背景,分析了沿川北龙门山-岷山断裂带不同断裂段的现今活动习性,并初步判别出了潜在的强震危险段落。研究结果表明:龙门山断裂带中-南段存在6个具有不同现今活动习性的段落,其中,绵竹-茂县段处于相对高应力背景下的频繁中-小震活动状态,被认为是龙门山断裂带上未来最可能发生强震的地段;江油-平武段处于相对高应力背景下的稀疏中-小震活动状态,未来有可能发生中强地震。而岷山断裂带中的岷江断裂段和虎牙断裂段,以及叠溪隐伏逆断层地区均具有相对偏低的应力水平,可能与其不久前分别发生过大地震和强震有关,未来不太长的时期内复发大地震的可能性较小。 相似文献
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交城断裂带北段最大潜在地震发震概率评估1 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
基于太原市目标区交城断裂带的定量研究,特别是对活动断裂上的古地震资料进行的系统、详细的分析与总结,建立了反映该断裂地震地质特点和运动学属性的复发模式和概率模型.引入震级-地表破裂长度、震级-震源破裂长度、震级-断层破裂面积以及震级-地震矩的经验关系进行震级估计,最后进行综合评估以确定交城断裂带北段潜在地震的最大震级.复发模式的建立兼顾了泊松和准周期两种模式,利用专家意见法组合相应的Poisson模型和BPT模型,计算活动断裂最大潜在地震的复发概率.结果表明,交城断裂带北段潜在地震最大震级为Ms7.2级,而未来50a、100a、200a发生Ms7.2级地震的概率分别为2.1％、4.0％和7.9％. 相似文献
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扶余肇东断裂带是松辽盆地中一条重要的隐伏发震断裂带,2006年和2014年在此断裂带上发生了多次近6级地震,地震活动主要集中在断裂的东北段和查干花段。在2012—2014年的松原市活断层探测工作中,探明扶余肇东断裂带东北段经过松原市区,该段呈近EW向,具有明显的分段性和独立性,将其命名为扶余北断裂。通过三维物探资料和浅层人工探测,确定了扶余北断裂的空间展布和剖面特征,并利用联排钻孔探测和光释光测年技术,确定该断裂存在晚更新世以来的活动;利用石油物探资料获得的基岩面破裂规模,对扶余北断裂的地震潜势进行了估计,并进行了概率性地震危险性研究。 相似文献
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NEW EVIDENCES OF HOLOCENE ACTIVITY IN THE JIANGSU SEGMENT OF ANQIU-JUXIAN FAULT OF THE TANLU FAULT ZONE 
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下载免费PDF全文 Anqiu-Juxian Fault is an important fault in the Tanlu fault zone, with the largest seismic risk, the most recent activity date and the most obvious surface traces. It is also the seismogenic fault of the Tancheng M8 1/2 earthquake in 1668. There are many different views about the southern termination location of surface rupture of the Tancheng earthquake and the Holocene activity in Jiangsu segment of this fault. Research on the latest activity time of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault, particularly the termination location of surface rupture of the Tancheng earthquake, is of great significance to the assessment of its earthquake potential and seismic risk.
Based on trench excavation on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault, we discuss the time and characteristics of its latest activity. Multiple geological sections from southern Maling Mountain to Chonggang Mountain indicate that there was an ancient seismic event occurring in Holocene on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault. We suggest the time of the latest seismic event is about(4.853±0.012)~(2.92±0.3)ka BP by dating results. The latest activity is characterized by thrust strike-slip faulting, with the maximum displacement of 1m. Combined with the fault rupture characteristics of each section, it is inferred that only one large-scale paleo-earthquake event occurred on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault since the Holocene.
The upper parts of the fault are covered by horizontal sand layers, not only on the trench in the west of Chonggang mountain but also on the trench in Hehuan Road in Suqian city, which indicates that the main part of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault was probably not the surface rupture zone of the 1668 Tancheng M8 1/2 earthquake.
In short, the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault has experienced many paleo-earthquake events since the late Pleistocene, with obvious activity during the Holocene. The seismic activities of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault have the characteristics of large magnitude and low frequency. The Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault has the deep tectonic and seismic-geological backgrounds of big earthquakes generation and should be highly valued by scientists. 相似文献
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WANG Ming-ming HE Yu-lin LIU Shao WANG Shi-yuan MA Chao ZHANG Wei JIA Zhao-liang 《地震地质》2018,40(4):738-752
The Ganzi-Yushu Fault, the boundary of Bayan Har active tectonic block, Qiantang active tectonic block and Sichuan-Yunan active tectonic block, is a sinistral strike-slip fault zone with intensive Holocene activity. Thus, the study of activity characteristics and rupture behavior of paleoearthquakes in the late Quaternary on the Ganzi-Yushu Fault is of fundamental importance for understanding the future seismic risk of this fault. The southeast section of Ganzi-Yushu Fault is made up of three segments of Ganzi, Manigange and Dengke, where a MS7.3 earthquake in 1866, a MS7.7 earthquake in 1854 and a MS7.3 in 1896 occurred, respectively. There is still lack of in-depth study on the active features and the cascading rupture possibility of these segments, which hindered the evaluation of seismic risk for the southeast section of Ganzi-Yushu Fault. By the means of field geological survey and micro topography measurement, this paper studied the geological and geomorphological features of the southeast section of the Ganzi-Yushu Fault. The results show that the Ganzi and Dengke segments show obvious extension movement, in addition to the left-lateral movement. For Manigange segment, the characteristics of the movement are mainly left-lateral strike-slip and thrusting, and the maximum vertical displacement of the Holocene strata is greater than 2m. In part areas, the movement is normal faulting, which perhaps relates to the left stepping zone in the local stress environment. Therefore, combining the research results such as the fracture distribution in different motion characteristics, rupture behavior of paleoearthquakes, and the distribution of historical earthquake surface ruptures, we divide the southeast section of Ganzi Yushu Fault into Ganzi, Manigange and Dengke segment, and consider the Yakou and the Dengke Basin as the stepovers and the segments' boundaries. As the small scale of impermanent barriers including Dengke Basin and the ridge near Yakou, of which the width is about 1~2km, they may be broken through in great earthquake rupture in future. A trench was excavated in Zhuqing township to investigate the paleoearthquakes on the Manigange segment, radiocarbon dating was employed and 3 paleoseismic events were revealed in the Zhuqing trench, which are the seismic events occurring respectively at 3875~3455BC, after 775BC, and the latest one that ruptured the surface. Compared with the previous results of paleoseismology in the southeast section of Ganzi-Yushu Fault, it is found that the paleoseismic events in the Manigange segment are obviously different with that in Ganzi segment and Dengke segment. Due to the lack of sufficient data on the southeast section of the Ganzi-Yushu Fault, it still needs further discussion whether the cascade-rupturing between these segments exists. 相似文献
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郯庐断裂带中段全新世活断层的特征滑动行为与特征地震 总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16
郯庐断裂带中段全新世活断层由３个独立的破裂段组成。从各破裂段的运动性质、位移分布看，断层的运动属特征地震型滑动。地震活动以强震活动为主，强震具有周期性原地重复发生的特点，且其强度基本相同；中强地震缺失或很少发生；ｂ值在高震级范围内具低ｂ值的非线性关系。这些特点正是特征地震的典型表现．根据郯庐断裂带中段活断层全新世以来的活动特点看，未来该区仍然以特征地震方式活动．按郯庐带的强震复发间隔和各段的最新一次活动时代推算，未来一段时期内新沂－宿迁段复发大震的可能性较大，安丘段次之，莒县－郯城段复发大震的可能性则很小。 相似文献
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利用区域台网地震资料, 分析了川西安宁河-则木河断裂带不同段落的现今活动习性，进而鉴别潜在大地震危险的断裂段. 文中由异常低b值的分布圈绘出凹凸体，发展和应用了由多个地震活动参数值的组合判定断裂分段活动习性的方法，尝试了利用凹凸体段的震级频度关系参数估计特征地震的平均复发间隔. 结果表明，该研究断裂带存在5个不同现今活动习性的段落. 其中，安宁河断裂的冕宁-西昌段属于高应力下的闭锁段，其核心部分为一较大尺度的凹凸体；则木河断裂的西昌-普格段则表现为低应力下的微弱活动状态. 重新定位的震源深度分布，显示出上述闭锁段和微弱活动段的断层面轮廓. 冕宁-西昌段是未来大地震的潜在危险段. 该段从最晚的1952年6.7级地震起算，至未来特征地震的平均复发间隔估值为55～67年, 未来地震的震级估值为7.0～7.5. 本研究也初步表明，同-断裂段的活动习性可随时间动态演变. 相似文献
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Since 1997, several major earthquakes occurred around the Bayan Har block in the Tibetan plateau, providing an opportunity to further understanding the mechanism of intraplate earthquakes. What is the effect of interactions among these events on the earthquake occurrence pattern is an issue to be addressed. In this article, we use the visco-elastic Coulomb stress changes model to calculate the stress interactions among the historical events close to or large than MS7.0 since 1893 in the Bayan Har block. We apply the relationships between the slip rate and stress accumulation rate to transform the Coulomb stress changes into the influenced time. Then we remove such influence time from the occurrence years, and analyze the effects of the earthquake interactions on the clustering patterns of the historical earthquakes in the Bayan Har block. The results show that the major earthquakes in the Bayan Har block are characterized by a quasi-period of about 16 years from 1893 to 1973 and a clustering occurrence time period from 1997 to present following a relatively long quiescence period. The Bayan Har block is still in the active period with high probabilities of major quakes. We calculate the conditional probabilities of the rupture segments that did not rupture since 1893 of the boundary faults of the Bayan Har block in the next 30 years. The following faults or fault sections seem to be of major risk:The Maqin segment and the Maqu fault of the East Kunlun fault zone, the Awanang fault, the Luocha segment of the Tazhong fault, the Moxi segment of the Xianshuihe fault, and the Dangjiang fault. Other Fault segments in the Bayan Har block without seismic events since 1893 probably also have hazard of MS7 earthquakes in the future. 相似文献
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