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1.
Based on observations of long-term variations in galactic cosmic rays (CRs) on Earth and in the near-Earth space, we have determined, using our own semiempirical model, modulation of galactic CRs during solar cycles 19–23. The modulation model relates CR variations to the characteristics of the solar magnetic field obtained for the surface of the solar wind source at distances of 2.50 and 3.25 solar radii. The main focus is CR behavior at the minimums of cycles 19–23 and specific features of CR modulation at a prolonged (as compared to previous cycles) minimum of cycle 23, which is still ongoing. CR modulation at minimums related to a change in the solar field dipole component during this period of the cycle has been considered. It is indicated that the long-term variations in CRs are better described if the last two years (2007 and 2008) of cycle 23 with anomalously low solar activity (SA) are included in the model. The role and value of the contribution of the cyclic variations in each index used in the proposed CR modulation model to the observed CR modulation have been estimated.  相似文献   

2.
During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth’s orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum (~2019–2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).  相似文献   

3.
The possibilities of improving the semiempirical model of cosmic ray (CR) modulation, proposed by us previously, are discussed. The following characteristics have been considered as model parameters in order to describe long-period CR variations using a unified model and to more completely reflect solar cycles in CR modulation as a complex interaction between two systems of fields (large-scale and local): the value and sign of the polar solar field, the average strength of the solar magnetic field (the B ss integral index), partial indices (zone-even (ZE) and zone-odd (ZO) and sector-even (SE) and sector-odd (SO) indices), the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and the special index (F x ) taking into account X ray flares. The role of each index in CR modulation has been revealed. When we described the long-term CR variations using many parameters and taking into account the integral index or one of four partial indices, the best results of modulation modeling during 1976–1999 were obtained for the B ss total energetic index and SO index. A difference between the model calculations and observations increases beginning from the middle of 2000; the problem features of the CR behavior and the specific features of modeling this behavior in cycle 23 of solar activity (SA) are discussed. It is assumed that a decrease in the CR density at the last SA minimums (from cycle to cycle) can be related to a decrease in the ZO index and to a recently detected similar decrease in the vertical component of the solar dipole magnetic moment.  相似文献   

4.
It is proposed to determined minimums of the 11-year solar cycles based on a minimal flux of the large-scale open solar magnetic field. The minimal fluxes before the finished cycle 23 (Carrington rotation CR 1904) and the started cycle 24 (CR 2054, April 2007) were equal to 1.8 × 1022 and 1.2 × 1022 μs, respectively. The long-term tendency toward an approach to a deep minimum of solar activity is confirmed. On the assumption that magnetic flux variations from minimums to maximums are proportional to each other, the anticipated value of the maximal Wolf number during cycle 24 is estimated as W max = 80.  相似文献   

5.
This paper addresses observed variations in cosmic ray (CR) intensity, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), the solar wind (SW) turbulence energy spectrum, and the energy spectrum index of Forbush decreases in the 20th–23rd solar cycles. Unlike the previous three cycles, there are some distinctive features in the 23rd solar cycle. The entire cycle shows a considerable increase in the index of the SW turbulence energy spectrum inclination and an substantially harder energy spectrum of Forbush decreases. The anomalously high flux of high-energy CRs and the anomalously low level of the IMF strength were recorded at the end of this cycle. The conclusion has been made that such unusual CR behavior is associated with a decrease in the degree of scattering in the resonance interaction between CR fluxes and SW inhomogeneities with spatial scales of ∼1012 cm.  相似文献   

6.
太阳辐射是电离层的电离源,强烈地调制电离层的变化.探索不同太阳辐射水平下的电离层状态,有助于认识电离层演变及其内在的基本物理过程.太阳活动在2008—2009年处于有记录以来的极低水平,研究电离层在此期间的变化及与其它太阳活动低年的差异是一个有益的课题.本文利用位于美洲扇区磁赤道地区Jicamarca台站(12.0°S, 283.2°E; dip 0.28°)测高仪观测的电离层F2层临界频率foF2数据探讨赤道地区foF2的行为.分别对第22/23太阳活动周低年(1996—1997)和第23/24活动周低年(2008—2009)的月中值、季节中值和滑动年均值进行分析,确认相比上一个太阳低年而言,在2008—2009年foF2滑动年均值和不同季节中值在各个地方时均降低,而月中值存在降低和升高.对foF2的时间尺度特性的分析发现,在本太阳周低年foF2长时间尺度分量下降,而短时间尺度分量呈现不一致的变化.我们认为,现有文献报道给出2008—2009年与以往太阳活动低年对比结果不一致有可能归因于所用分析方法关注的时间尺度不相同.  相似文献   

7.
The dynamics of the absolute global values (Φ) of the large-scale open solar magnetic field (LOSMF) fluxes at an interval of one solar rotation in 2006–2012 has been studied based on the Wilcox Solar Observatory data and using the ISOPAK original package for modeling the solar magnetic field. The reference points and the duration of the final quasi-biennial interval in cycle 23 (January 2006–May 2007; 17 months) and the phases of the cycle 24 minimum (May 2007–November 2009; 30 months), growth (November 2009–May 2012; 30 months), and the beginning of the maximum (May 2012–January 2013) have been determined. It has been indicated that the absolute values (Φ) decreased sharply at the beginning of the minimum, growth, and the maximum phases to ～(2, 1.25, 0.75) × 1022 Mx, respectively. During the entire minimum phase, LOSMF corotated super-quasi-rigidly westward in the direction of solar rotation; at the beginning of the growth phase, this field started corotating mostly eastward. The LOSMF polarity reversal in the current cycle 24 started in May–June 2012 (CR 2123–2124), when fields of southern polarity rushed from the Sun’s southern hemisphere toward the north. The statement that the solar cycle is a continuous series of quasi-biennial LOSMF intervals is confirmed. In particular, the minimum and growth phases are characterized by opposite LOSMF rotation directions, i.e., super-quasi-rigid corotation (twisting) and detwisting, with identical duration at least in cycle 24.  相似文献   

8.
This work represents a physical interpretation of cosmic ray modulation in the 22nd–24th solar cycles, including an interpretation of an unusual behavior of their intensity in the last minimum of the solar activity (2008–2010). In terms of the Parker modulation model, which deals with regularly measured heliospheric characteristics, it is shown that the determining factor of the increased intensity of the galactic cosmic rays in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is an anomalous reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval under the additional influence of the solar wind velocity and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We have used in the calculations the dependence of the diffusion tensor on the rigidity in the form K ij ∝ R 2?μ with μ = 1.2 in the sector zones of the heliospheric magnetic field and with μ = 0.8 outside the sector zones, which leads to an additional amplification of the diffusion mechanism of cosmic ray modulation. The proposed approach allows us to describe quite satisfactorily the integral intensity of protons with an energy above 0.1 GeV and the energy spectra in the minima of the 22nd–24th solar cycles at the same value of the free parameter. The determining factor of the anomalously high level of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the minimum of the 24th solar cycle is the significant reduction of the heliospheric magnetic field strength during this time interval. The forecast of the intensity level in the minimum of the 25th solar cycle is provided.  相似文献   

9.
We compare changes in the solar global magnetic field (GMF) given by the distribution of magnetic fields on the source surface and spot activity characterized by Wolf numbers, the number of spots, and their area reflecting the dynamics of local magnetic fields of active regions during cycles 21 to 24 (1976–2015). The results indicate that the changes in the GMF and spot activity have certain differences, both in different cycles generally and in the phases of growth, maximum, and decline in each individual cycle. The maximum and minimum correlations between the GMF and spot activity are observed in cycles 22 and 24, respectively. The maximum correlation is reached in growth phases (cycles 21, 22, and 24) and in the phase of decline (cycle 23), which can be associated with the fact that the phase of decline in cycle 23 is anomalously extended. Almost no correlation between the GMF and spot activity can be found at the phases of the maximum and early beginning of decline in all cycles. This can be associated with structural reorganization and sign change in the GMF.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper, we consider variations in energetic electron fluxes at a geostationary orbit, which are related to the Sun’s rotation period, during two solar cycles. We use data on energetic electron fluxes obtained from the GOES (1986–2007) (>2 MeV) and LANL (1996–2007) (50–225 and 315–1500 keV) satellites. Within the solar cycle, we observed both periods of high flux peak recurrence during several rotations and periods when there was no (or a low) 27-day recurrence. We show the similarity and difference between manifestations of flux recurrences from cycle to cycle. Insignificant manifestation of recurrence and its absence were observed mainly during the solar maximum. High electron flux recurrence was observed mainly at the phase of decline in solar activity (near the solar minimum). We show that for both solar cycles, there were several days (within the Bartels rotation) during which increased energetic electron fluxes would be most likely observed.  相似文献   

11.
The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of the stratospheric geopotential height and temperature fields at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations with periods related to the period of the Sun’s rotation (27.2 days) is discussed, applying methods of statistical spectral analysis to daily data for the period from 1965 to 1996. Atmospheric responses for three periodicities — 27.2 days (period of the Sun’s rotation), 25.3 days (periodicity caused by the modulation of the 27.2 days oscillation by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 days (doubled period of the solar rotation) — are studied. A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the atmospheric response to the 27.2 days solar periodicity has not been found. We explain it by a frequency shift of the response from the 27.2 days to the 25.3 days periodicity via amplitude modulation. For the 25.3 days oscillation, prominent differences between the maximum and minimum of the 11-year solar cycle have been found in the coherence between the 10.7 cm solar radio flux and the height/temperature fields: the relationships are stronger at solar maximum than at the minimum of the 11-year cycle. The same differences, but to a greater extent, are revealed for the oscillation with a period of 54.4 days. Coherence and amplitude estimates for this doubled solar rotation periodicity exhibit strong differences between extrema of the 11-year solar cycle. Phase estimates also demonstrate a clear difference between high and low solar activity: on the average, the delay of the atmospheric response after the solar signal is smaller at solar maximum than at solar minimum. Thus, we conclude that the mechanism of the influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the winter middle stratosphere can include both a direct effect of the frequency corresponding to the doubled solar rotation periodicity and an indirect effect of modulation of the intensity of the interaction between the solar 27.2 days oscillation and seasonal atmospheric variations.  相似文献   

12.
The parameter of cosmic ray fluctuations, which indicates the degree of IMF inhomogeneity, was introduced in order to quantitatively describe the dynamics of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity fluctuations during the geoeffective phases of the 11-year cycle. The 5-min data of the high-latitude neutron monitor at Oulu station (Finland) during cycles 20–23 was used in the calculations. The nonrandom non-Gaussian character of the GCR fluctuation parameter is caused by the nonstationary semiannual variation reflecting the transient nonstationary oscillatory process of sign reversal of the general solar magnetic field. This transient oscillatory process is responsible for the maximal geoeffectiveness and duration of the phase of polarity reversal, which manifests itself in a sharp and deep GCR intensity minimum during the final stage of the field sign reversal. The invariant of the 11-year “amplitude-duration” cycle was confirmed on a new basis: the LF drift of the “low” cycle period was detected, which was observed in an increase in the duration of cycle 23 we anticipated.  相似文献   

13.
We present results obtained at El Leoncito (CASLEO, San Juan, Argentina) with the CARPET charged particles detector installed in April 2006. The observed modulation of the cosmic ray flux is discussed as a function of its time variability and it is related to longer solar activity variations and to shorter variations during solar and geomagnetic transient activity. Short period (few minutes, few hours) cosmic ray modulation events are observed during rain time (precipitation) and significant variations of the atmospheric electric field. Complementary observations of the atmospheric electric field indicate that its time variations play an important role in the detected cosmic ray event.  相似文献   

14.
The prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 24 and 25 is made on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Monthly sunspot number data during the 1850–2007 interval (solar cycles 9–23) are decomposed into several levels and searched for periodicities by iterative regression in each level. For solar cycle 24, the peak is predicted in November 2013 with a sunspot number of 113.3. The cycle is expected to be weak, with a length of 133 mo (months) or 11.1 yr. The sunspot number maximum in cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2023 with a sunspot number 132.1 and a solar cycle length of 118 mo or 9.8 yr. Thus, solar cycle 24 is predicted to have an intensity 23% lower than cycle 23, and cycle 25 will be 5% lower than cycle 23.  相似文献   

15.
Analysis of the time series into trigonometric series allows the investigation of cosmic-ray (CR) intensity variations in a range of periodicities from a few days to 1 year. By this technique the amplitude and the phase of all observed fluctuations can be given. For this purpose, daily CR intensity values recorded at Climax Neutron Monitor station for the time intervals 1979–1982 and 1989–1991, which correspond to the epochs of maximum activity for solar cycles 21 and 22, respectively, have been studied. The data analysis revealed the occurrence of new periodicities, common or not, in the two solar maxima. A search of our results was done by a power spectral analysis determining independently possible systematic periodic or quasi-periodic variations. Based on the fact that during these maxima the CR intensity tracks the solar flare index better than the sunspot number, the same analysis was performed on these data, which are equivalent to the total energy emitted by the solar flares. Both analyses result in periodicities with different probability of occurrence in different epochs. Occurrence at peaks of 70, 56, 35, 27, 21 and 14- days were observed in all time series, while the periods of 140–154 and 105 days are reported only in the 21st solar maximum and are of particular importance. All of the short-term periods except of those at 27 and 154-days are recorded for first time in CR data, but they had already been observed in the solar activity parameters. Moreover, each parameter studied here has a very different power spectrum distribution in periods larger than 154 days. The possible origin of the observed variations in terms of the CR interaction in the upper atmosphere and the solar cavity dynamics is also discussed here.  相似文献   

16.
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17.
We study the cosmic ray modulation during different solar cycles and polarity states of the heliosphere. We determine (a) time lag between the cosmic ray intensity and the solar variability, (b) area of the cosmic ray intensity versus solar activity modulation loops and (c) dependence of the cosmic ray intensity on the solar variability, during different solar activity cycles and polarity states of the heliosphere. We find differences during odd and even solar cycles. Differences during positive and negative polarity periods are also found. Consequences and implications of the observed differences during (i) odd and even cycles, and (ii) opposite polarity states (A<0 and A>0) are discussed in the light of the modulation models, including drift effects.  相似文献   

18.
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19.
It is well known that the 630-nm nightglow emission intensity in midlatitudes increases by more than a factor of 2 during a sunspot maximum. It has been assumed that the phenomenon is caused by variations in solar UV radiation during a solar cycle (Fishkova, 1983). We present the results of photometric measurements of the nightglow 630.0 nm emission intensity at a latitude of 63° E and longitude of 130° E (Yakutsk) in 1990–2007. The dependence of the 630-nm emission intensity on solar activity on magnetically quiet days in the 22nd and 23rd solar cycles is shown. The close relationship between the 630-nm nightglow intensity and the intensity of extreme UV (EUV) with a correlation coefficient of 0.8–0.9 in 1997–2007 is ascertained from the SOHO/SEM data. The dominance of solar EUV in the excitation of nightglow 630-nm emission has thus been experimentally proved.  相似文献   

20.
Solar activity is evident both in the equatorial activity centres and in the polar magnetic field variations. The total solar irradiance variation is due to the former component. During the extraordinarily long minimum of activity between sunspot cycles 23 and 24, the variations related to the equatorial field components reached their minimum values in the first half of 2008, while those related to the polar field variations had their extreme values rather at the end of 2009 and the first half of 2010. The explanation of this delay is another challenge for dynamo theories. The role of the open solar flux has so far been grossly underestimated in discussions of Sun-climate relations. The gradual increase in the average terrestrial ground temperature since 1610 is related both to the equatorial and polar field variations. The main component (0.077?K/century) is due to the variation of the total solar irradiance. The second component (0.040?K/century) waits for an explanation. The smoothed residual increase, presumably antropogenic, obtained after subtraction of the known components from the total increase was 0.31?K in 1999.  相似文献   

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