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1.
The locked section of the San Andreas fault in southern California has experienced a number of large and great earthquakes in the past, and thus is expected to have more in the future. To estimate the location, time, and slip of the next few earthquakes, an earthquake instability model is formulated. The model is similar to one recently developed for moderate earthquakes on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. In both models, unstable faulting (the earthquake analog) is caused by failure of all or part of a patch of brittle, strain-softening fault zone. In the present model the patch extends downward from the ground surface to about 12 km depth, and extends 500 km along strike from Parkfield to the Salton Sea. The variation of patch strength along strike is adjusted by trial until the computed sequence of instabilities matches the sequence of large and great earthquakes sincea.d. 1080 reported by Sieh and others. The last earthquake was theM=8.3 Ft. Tejon event in 1857. The resulting strength variation has five contiguous sections of alternately low and high strength. From north to south, the approximate locations of the sections are: (1) Parkfield to Bitterwater Valley, (2) Bitterwater Valley to Lake Hughes, (3) Lake Hughes to San Bernardino, (4) San Bernardino to Palm Springs, and (5) Palm Springs to the Salton Sea. Sections 1, 3, and 5 have strengths between 53 and 88 bars; sections 2 and 4 have strengths between 164 and 193 bars. Patch section ends and unstable rupture ends usually coincide, although one or more adjacent patch sections may fail unstably at once. The model predicts that the next sections of the fault to slip unstably will be 1, 3, and 5; the order and dates depend on the assumed length of an earthquake rupture in about 1700.  相似文献   

2.
2014年8月24日,在美国加州旧金山海湾北部的纳帕地区发生了MW6.1地震.发震断层是西纳帕断裂系统中的一部分,但是该断层之前并未被足够重视.本文利用欧洲空间局最近发射成功并刚刚投入使用的Sentinel-1A卫星获取的第一对同震干涉像对(20140807-20140831),得到了该地震的地表同震形变场,结合震后24h内区域GPS同震形变资料作为约束条件,反演了纳帕地震的断层几何参数以及滑动分布.Sentinel-1A干涉结果表明,此次地震造成了明显的地面形变,视线向最大抬升和最大沉降量均达到了10cm.联合反演结果表明,该发震断层的走向为344°,倾角为80°.主要破裂以右旋走滑为主,平均倾滑角为-146.5°,最大倾滑量达到了1.1m,位于地表下约4km,存在明显的滑动亏损现象.此次地震,累计释放地震矩达1.5×1018 N·m,约合矩震级MW6.1.该结果略小于InSAR单独约束结果,可能与Sentinel-1A像对中包含的快速震后形变分量有关.  相似文献   

3.
The San Andreas Fault (SAF) is the Pacific-North American plate boundary, yet in southern California a significant portion of the relative plate motion is accommodated by the San Jacinto Fault (SJF). Here we investigate the initiation of the SJF and its interaction with the SAF in a three-dimensional visco-elasto-plastic finite-element model. The model results show that the restraining bend of the southern SAF causes strain localization along the SJF, thus may have contributed to its initiation. Slip on the SJF tends to reduce slip rate on the SAF and enhance deformation in the Eastern California Shear Zone. The initiation of the SJF and its interaction with the SAF reflect the evolving plate boundary zone as it continuously seeks the most efficient way to accommodate the relative plate motion.  相似文献   

4.
Rates of shallow slip on creeping sections of the San Andreas fault have been perturbed on a number of occasions by earthquakes occurring on nearby faults. One example of such perturbations occurred during the 26 January 1986 magnitude 5.3 Tres Pinos earthquake located about 10 km southeast of Hollister, California. Seven creepmeters on the San Andreas fault showed creep steps either during or soon after the shock. Both left-lateral (LL) and right-lateral (RL) steps were observed. A rectangular dislocation in an elastic half-space was used to model the coseismic fault offset at the hypocenter. For a model based on the preliminary focal mechanism, the predicted changes in static shear stress on the plane of the San Andreas fault agreed in sense (LL or RL) with the observed slip directions at all seven meters; for a model based on a refined focal mechanism, six of the seven meters showed the correct sense of motion. Two possible explanations for such coseismic and postseismic steps are (1) that slip was triggered by the earthquake shaking or (2) that slip occurred in response to the changes in static stress fields accompanying the earthquake. In the Tres Pinos example, the observed steps may have been of both the triggered and responsive kinds. A second example is provided by the 2 May 1983 magnitude 6.7 Coalinga earthquake, which profoundly altered slip rates at five creepmeters on the San Andreas fault for a period of months to years. The XMM1 meter 9 km northwest of Parkfield, California recorded LL creep for more than a year after the event. To simulate the temporal behavior of the XMM1 meter and to view the stress perturbation provided by the Coalinga earthquake in the context of steady-state deformation on the San Andreas fault, a simple time-evolving dislocation model was constructed. The model was driven by a single long vertical dislocation below 15 km in depth, that was forced to slip at 35 mm/yr in a RL sense. A dislocation element placed in the seismogenic layer under XMM1 was given a finite breaking strength of sufficient magnitude to produce a Parkfield-like earthquake every 22 years. When stress changes equivalent to a Coalinga earthquake were superposed on the model running in a steady state mode, the effect was to make a segment under XMM1, that could slip in a linear viscous fashion, creep LL and to delay the onset of the next Parkfield-like earthquake by a year or more. If static stress changes imposed by earthquakes off the San Andreas can indeed advance or delay earthquakes on the San Andreas by months or years, then such changes must be considered in intermediate-term prediction efforts.  相似文献   

5.
The occurrence of the September 28, 2004 M w = 6.0 mainshock at Parkfield, California, has significantly increased the mean and aperiodicity of the series of time intervals between mainshocks in this segment of the San Andreas fault. We use five different statistical distributions as renewal models to fit this new series and to estimate the time-dependent probability of the next Parkfield mainshock. Three of these distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull) are frequently used in reliability and time-to-failure problems. The other two come from physically-based models of earthquake recurrence (the Brownian Passage Time Model and the Minimalist Model). The differences resulting from these five renewal models are emphasized.  相似文献   

6.
A prototype expert system has been developed to provide rapid warning of earthquakes while they are occurring. Warning times of up to 100 seconds will be possible. In the complete system, several accelerometers are distributed at intervals within a few kilometers of a known fault; data are telemetered to a central computer which implements the expert system. The expert system incorporates specific information about the type of fault to be monitored, and includes simple rules for estimating the fault slip, rupture length, and seismic moment, all in real time. If the seismic moment exceeds a preset value, an alarm may be issued. The prototype is designed for deployment on near-surface strike-slip faults such as the San Andreas and has been successfully tested with data from the 1979 Imperial Valley and 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. Crucial concepts have also been tested using synthetic data calculated for a model of the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Parkfield, California, could be used as a test site.  相似文献   

7.
A detailed seismological interpretation of the strong motion records was attempted for the 1966 Parkfield earthquake, California. Velocity and displacement traces integrated from the corresponding recorded accelerograms were found most valuable in studying the earthquake mechanism and wave forms. A double-couple right-lateral strike — slip mechanism (along the San Andreas fault) is consistent with the recorded direct S-waves originating from the hypocentre. High energy arrivals observed on the velocity traces are interpreted as S-waves (‘stopping phases’) that originated at the termination of the rupture towards the south-east of the San Andreas fault. A double-couple left-lateral strike–slip mechanism is suggested as the cause of this rupture termination. From particle velocity diagrams of the stopping phases in the horizontal plane, the rupture length was found to be between 20 and 28 km. Corresponding rupture velocities are estimated to be 2·5 ± 0·1 and 3·1 ± 0·5 km/s. The inference from the strong motion records is that Love waves were more excited at the south-western than the north-eastern side of the fault, whereas the Rayleigh waves were more energetic at the north-eastern than the south-western side of the fault.  相似文献   

8.
We present new in situ observations of systematic asymmetry in the pattern of damage expressed by fault zone rocks along sections of the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Punchbowl faults in southern California. The observed structural asymmetry has consistent manifestations at a fault core scale of millimeters to meters, a fault zone scale of meters to tens of meters and related geomorphologic features. The observed asymmetric signals are in agreement with other geological and geophysical observations of structural asymmetry in a damage zone scale of tens to hundreds of meters. In all of those scales, more damage is found on the side of the fault with faster seismic velocities at seismogenic depths. The observed correlation between the damage asymmetry and local seismic velocity structure is compatible with theoretical predictions associated with preferred propagation direction of earthquake ruptures along faults that separate different crustal blocks. The data are consistent with a preferred northwestward propagation direction for ruptures on all three faults. If our results are supported by additional observations, asymmetry of structural properties determined in field studies can be utilized to infer preferred propagation direction of large earthquake ruptures along a given fault section. The property of a preferred rupture direction can explain anomalous behavior of historic rupture events, and may have profound implications for many aspects of earthquake physics on large faults.  相似文献   

9.
Seismic measurements of the internal properties of fault zones   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The internal properties within and adjacent to fault zones are reviewed, principally on the basis of laboratory, borehole, and seismic refraction and reflection data. The deformation of rocks by faulting ranges from intragrain microcracking to severe alteration. Saturated microcracked and mildly fractured rocks do not exhibit a significant reduction in velocity, but, from borehole measurements, densely fractured rocks do show significantly reduced velocities, the amount of reduction generally proportional to the fracture density. Highly fractured rock and thick fault gouge along the creeping portion of the San Andreas fault are evidenced by a pronounced seismic low-velocity zone (LVZ), which is either very thin or absent along locked portions of the fault. Thus there is a correlation between fault slip behavior and seismic velocity structure within the fault zone; high pore pressure within the pronounced LVZ may be conductive to fault creep. Deep seismic reflection data indicate that crustal faults sometimes extend through the entire crust. Models of these data and geologic evidence are consistent with a composition of deep faults consisting of highly foliated, seismically anisotropic mylonites.  相似文献   

10.
Following theoretical calculations that suggest shallow generation of rock damage during an earthquake rupture, we measure the degree of fracture damage in young sedimentary rocks from the Juniper Hills Formation (JHF) that were displaced 21 km along the Mojave section of San Andreas Fault (SAF) and were not exhumed significantly during their displacement. In exposures adjacent to the fault, the JHF typically displays original sedimentary fabrics and little evidence of bulk shear strain at the mesoscopic scale. The formation is, however, pervasively fractured at the microscopic scale over a zone that is about a 100 m wide on the southwest side of the SAF near Little Rock. The abundance of open fractures, the poor consolidation, and the shallow inferred burial depth imply that the damage was generated close to the surface of the Earth. The spatial correlation of this damage with a seismically active trace of the SAF suggests that it was generated by SAF slip events that by assumption were of a seismic nature throughout the displacement history of the JHF. Thus the JHF provides a very shallow upper bound for the generation of brittle damage in a seismic fault zone. The fracture fabric is characterized by preferred orientations of fractures that split grains between contact points and is consistent with overall deformation under directed compression. However, the available results cannot be used to distinguish between proposed off-fault damage mechanisms. Fracture orientations are compatible with a maximum compressive stress oriented at a high angle to the fault at about 10 m, and at a lower, more variable angle farther away from the fault. The fracture distribution and fabric are consistent with observations made of the microscale damage characteristics of the Hungry Valley Formation in the northwestern section of the SAF in the Mojave, and with previous observations of exhumed, ancestral strands of the SAF.  相似文献   

11.
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the statistical distributions of recurrence times of earthquakes. Recurrence times are the time intervals between successive earthquakes at a specified location on a specified fault. Although a number of statistical distributions have been proposed for recurrence times, we argue in favor of the Weibull distribution. The Weibull distribution is the only distribution that has a scale-invariant hazard function. We consider three sets of characteristic earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: (1) The Parkfield earthquakes, (2) the sequence of earthquakes identified by paleoseismic studies at the Wrightwood site, and (3) an example of a sequence of micro-repeating earthquakes at a site near San Juan Bautista. In each case we make a comparison with the applicable Weibull distribution. The number of earthquakes in each of these sequences is too small to make definitive conclusions. To overcome this difficulty we consider a sequence of earthquakes obtained from a one million year “Virtual California” simulation of San Andreas earthquakes. Very good agreement with a Weibull distribution is found. We also obtain recurrence statistics for two other model studies. The first is a modified forest-fire model and the second is a slider-block model. In both cases good agreements with Weibull distributions are obtained. Our conclusion is that the Weibull distribution is the preferred distribution for estimating the risk of future earthquakes on the San Andreas fault and elsewhere.  相似文献   

12.
右江断裂带地处桂西断块区,有记载以来沿带曾发生40～50级地震15次,属中强地震带。笔者在室内卫片、航片、大比例尺地形图解译和分析的基础上,经野外实地调查,获得了断裂带晚更新世活动的若干地质地貌证据,实测了断裂的左旋位移数据。文中介绍了有关证据,并根据年龄数据,计算了断裂中、晚更新世以来的水平和垂直位移速率。断裂带在平面上分3大段,即百色以西段、百色—思林段、思林—坛洛段,各大段又可进一步分为若干个小段。断裂断错了距今(328±025)×104a～(1016±079)×104a的阶地堆积物和残坡积物,控制着百色—田东晚第四纪盆地的发育,地貌上形成断层谷和槽地、断层崖和陡坎,横穿断裂的水系发生同步左旋位移,其活动性质以左旋走滑为主,兼有张性差异运动。晚更新世不同时段以来断裂的水平位移速率为147～198mm/a,中更新世以来的垂直位移速率为074～076mm/a,晚更新世以来为01～035mm/a。该断裂的位移速率明显低于其西的川滇断块内部断裂,更低于川滇断块周边断裂  相似文献   

13.
断裂活动和地震活动具有互为因果的关系,而不同于一般做法,文中用地震的活动性来分析断裂带的活动特征.为了解邯郸市周边存在的断裂带的活动特征,基于邯郸市附近地震台网监测的地震数据,利用地震纵波速度和震源位置联合反演方法,得到了邯郸市周边主要断裂带上地震波速度及震中在空间和时间上的分布特征,确定了地下壳质的纵波速度结构特征.综合分析表明:邯郸市周边小震的活动主要由磁县断裂和林州-武安断裂引起,太行山山前断裂带南端(邯郸-磁县段)几乎没有活动;地震活动集中在6 ～ 10km的范围内;活动时间特征是,从开始的2条断裂带同时活动逐渐演变为以磁县断裂活动为主.  相似文献   

14.
对断裂带及附近区域地层精细结构的描述是理解地震孕育和发生过程的基础.不同板块或块体边界在构造或区域应力作用下,常常会形成速度间断面和低速的断裂带,间断面和低速带的存在会产生特殊的断裂带地震波,比如断裂带首波和围陷波,并会影响地震的物理过程、破裂速度和破裂方向等.本文主要利用2010年4月14日M_W6.9玉树地震后布设的流动地震台站,对沿着甘孜—玉树断裂带传播的断裂带首波进行识别和分析.分析结果表明,在甘孜—玉树断裂带的不同区域均观测到了断裂带首波,在西段的结隆拉张盆地附近的3个台站沿断裂带界面的平均纵波速度差异值在5%～8%,而其他区域的平均速度差异为1%～3%.通过台站位置分布和断裂带首波特征关系,初步分析了断裂带拉张盆地的结构,结果显示结隆盆地的长度为～40km,宽度为5.35～5.97km,深度不超过5km,在地表浅层形成了一个低速区,分别与巴颜喀拉块体(NE)和羌塘块体(SW)产生了两个物性差异界面,但没有延伸到主震和余震区震源深度.我们的结果表明结合密集台阵资料,通过断裂带首波特征分析可以为断裂带精细结构及几何特征提供一种新的技术方法和途径.  相似文献   

15.
The observations of short-term decreases in helium soil-gas concentrations along the San Andreas Fault in central California have been correlated with subsequent earthquake activity. The area of study is elliptical in shape with radii approximately 160×80 km, centered near San Benito, and with the major axis parallel to the Fault. For 83 percent of theM>4 earthquakes in this area a helium decrease preceded seismic activity by 1.5 to 6.5 weeks. There were several earthquakes without a decrease and several decreases without a corresponding earthquake. Owing to complex and unresolved interaction of many geophysical and geochemical parameters, no suitable model is yet developed to explain the observations.  相似文献   

16.
We have compared near-fault ground motions from TeraShake simulations of Mw7.7 earthquake scenarios on the southern San Andreas Fault with precariously balanced rock locations. The TeraShake scenarios with different directions of rupture generate radically different ground motions to the northwest of the Los Angeles Basin, primarily because of directivity effects, and thus provide constraints on the ground motion and rupture direction for the latest (1690) large event on that section of the San Andreas Fault. Due to the large directional near-field ground motions predicted by the simulations, we expect the precariously balanced rocks to be located primarily in the backward rupture direction or near the epicenter. Preliminary results favor persistent nucleation at or slightly northwest of the San Gorgonia Pass fault zone for large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas Fault.  相似文献   

17.
We show that geodetic data from the Bay Area Regional Deformation (BARD) network indicate asymmetric motion across the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), resulting from a strong contrast in rigidity across the fault, as determined previously from seismological data. Assuming asymmetric motion across the fault, we determine the location and size of the maximum strain rate in the region. We find that, compared to the determination using a symmetric model of deformation, it is shifted eastward and its value increases from ～0.4 μstrain/yr to ～0.65 μstrain/yr. Such strain rate amplitudes are consistent with previous geodetic slip rate estimates. We confirm that the geological units located east of SAF are entrained by the motion of the Pacific Plate and that the San Andreas fault (SAF) is the real rheological limit between the Pacific and North-American Plates. The asymmetry of rheology constrained in this study implies the strain rate maximum in SFBA is likely located between SAF and the Hayward fault system. This also has implications for hazards in the northern SFBA, in particular on the Rodgers creek fault.  相似文献   

18.
Tanlu fault zone is the largest strike-slip fault system in eastern China. Since it was discovered by aeromagnetics in 1960s, it has been widely concerned by scholars at home and abroad, and a lot of research has been done on its formation and evolution. At the same time, the Tanlu fault zone is also the main seismic structural zone in China, with an obvious characteristic of segmentation of seismicity. Major earthquakes are mostly concentrated in the Bohai section and Weifang-Jiashan section. For example, the largest earthquake occurring in the Bohai section is M7.4 earthquake, and the largest earthquake occurring in the Weifang-Jiashan section is M8.5 earthquake. Therefore, the research on the active structure of the Tanlu fault zone is mainly concentrated in these two sections. With the deepening of research, some scholars carried out a lot of research on the middle section of Tanlu fault zone, which is distributed in Shandong and northern Jiangsu Province, including five nearly parallel fault systems, i.e. Changyi-Dadian Fault(F1), Baifenzi-Fulaishan Fault(F2), Yishui-Tangtou Fault(F3), Tangwu-Gegou Fault(F4) and Anqiu-Juxian Fault(F5). They find that the faults F3 and F5 are still active since the late Quaternary. In recent years, we have got a further understanding of the geometric distribution, active age and active nature of Fault F5, and found that it is still active in Holocene. At the same time, the latest research on the extension of F5 into Anhui suggests that there is a late Pleistocene-Holocene fault existing near the Huaihe River in Anhui Province. The Tanlu fault zone extends into Anhui Province and the extension section is completely buried, especially in the Hefei Basin south of Dingyuan. At present, there is little research on the activity of this fault segment, and it is very difficult to study its geometric structure and active nature, and even whether the fault exists has not been clear. Precisely determining the distribution, active properties and the latest active time of the hidden faults under urban areas is of great significance not only for studying the rupture behavior and segmentation characteristics of the southern section of the Tanlu fault zone, but also for providing important basis for urban seismic fortification. By using the method of shallow seismic prospecting and the combined drilling geological section, this paper carries out a detailed exploration and research on the Wuyunshan-Hefei Fault, the west branch fault of Tanlu fault zone buried in Hefei Basin. Four shallow seismic prospecting lines and two rows of joint borehole profiles are laid across the fault in Hefei urban area from north to south. Using 14C, OSL and ESR dating methods, ages of 34 samples of borehole stratigraphic profiles are obtained. The results show that the youngest stratum dislocated by the Wuyunshan-Hefei Fault is the Mesopleistocene blue-gray clay layer, and its activity is characterized by reverse faulting, with a maximum vertical offset of 2.4m. The latest active age is late Mesopleistocene, and the depth of the shallowest upper breaking point is 17m. This study confirms that the west branch of Tanlu fault zone cuts through Hefei Basin and is still active since Quaternary. Its latest activity age in Hefei Basin is late of Middle Pleistocene, and the latest activity is characterized by thrusting. The research results enrich the understanding of the overall activity of Tanlu fault zone in the buried section of Hefei Basin and provide reliable basic data for earthquake monitoring, prediction and earthquake damage prevention in Anhui Province.  相似文献   

19.
Anqiu-Juxian Fault is an important fault in the Tanlu fault zone, with the largest seismic risk, the most recent activity date and the most obvious surface traces. It is also the seismogenic fault of the Tancheng M8 1/2 earthquake in 1668. There are many different views about the southern termination location of surface rupture of the Tancheng earthquake and the Holocene activity in Jiangsu segment of this fault. Research on the latest activity time of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault, particularly the termination location of surface rupture of the Tancheng earthquake, is of great significance to the assessment of its earthquake potential and seismic risk. Based on trench excavation on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault, we discuss the time and characteristics of its latest activity. Multiple geological sections from southern Maling Mountain to Chonggang Mountain indicate that there was an ancient seismic event occurring in Holocene on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault. We suggest the time of the latest seismic event is about(4.853±0.012)~(2.92±0.3)ka BP by dating results. The latest activity is characterized by thrust strike-slip faulting, with the maximum displacement of 1m. Combined with the fault rupture characteristics of each section, it is inferred that only one large-scale paleo-earthquake event occurred on the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault since the Holocene. The upper parts of the fault are covered by horizontal sand layers, not only on the trench in the west of Chonggang mountain but also on the trench in Hehuan Road in Suqian city, which indicates that the main part of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault was probably not the surface rupture zone of the 1668 Tancheng M8 1/2 earthquake. In short, the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault has experienced many paleo-earthquake events since the late Pleistocene, with obvious activity during the Holocene. The seismic activities of the Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault have the characteristics of large magnitude and low frequency. The Jiangsu segment of Anqiu-Juxian Fault has the deep tectonic and seismic-geological backgrounds of big earthquakes generation and should be highly valued by scientists.  相似文献   

20.
ＭｅａｓｕｒｅｍｅｎｔｏｆｒａｄｏｎｇａｓｏｎｍａｊｏｒｆａｕｌｔｓｉｎＣａｌｉｆｏｒｎｉａ，ＵＳＡＷｅｉＺＨＡＮＧ（张炜）ａｎｄＣｈｉ－ＹｕＫＩＮＧ（金继宇）（ＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓａｎｄＰｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｓｉｍｏｌｏ...  相似文献   

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