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1.
The occurrence time of earthquakes can be anticipated or delayed by external phenomena that induce strain energy changes on the faults. ??Anticipated?? earthquakes are generally called ??triggered??; however, it can be controversial to label a specific earthquake as such, mostly because of the stochastic nature of earthquake occurrence and of the large uncertainties usually associated to stress modelling. Here we introduce a combined statistical and physical approach to quantify the probability that a given earthquake was triggered by a given stress-inducing phenomenon. As an example, we consider an earthquake that was likely triggered by a natural event: the M?=?6.2 13 Jan 1976 Kópasker earthquake on the Grímsey lineament (Tj?rnes Fracture Zone, Iceland), which occurred about 3?weeks after a large dike injection in the nearby Krafla fissure swarm. By using Coulomb stress calculations and the rate-and-state earthquake nucleation theory, we calculate the likelihood of the earthquake in a scenario that contains only the tectonic background and excludes the dike and in a scenario that includes the dike but excludes the background. Applying the Bayes?? theorem, we obtain that the probability that the earthquake was indeed triggered by the dike, rather than purely due to the accumulation of tectonic strain, is about 60 to 90?%. This methodology allows us to assign quantitative probabilities to different scenarios and can help in classifying earthquakes as triggered or not triggered by natural or human-induced changes of stress in the crust.  相似文献   

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5.
During the microzonation studies of the April 6th, 2009 L??Aquila earthquake, we observed local seismic amplifications in the Roio area??a plane separated from L??Aquila city center by mount Luco. Six portable, digital instruments were deployed across the plain from 15 April to mid-May 2009. This array recorded 152 aftershocks. We analyzed the ground motion from these events to determine relative site amplification within the plain and on surrounding ridges. Horizontal over vertical spectral ratio on noise data (HVSRN), aftershock recordings (HVEQ) and standard spectral ratio (SSR) showed amplifications at 1.3 and 4.0?Hz on quaternary deposits. Seismic amplifications in the frequency range of 4 and 6?Hz were also observed on a carbonate ridge of Colle di Roio, on the northwestern border of the plateau. A small amplification was noticed near the top of mount Luco, another rocky site. Large discrepancies in the amplification levels between methods have been observed for these sites, but the HVSRN, HVEQ and SSR gave similar results at the stations located in the Roio plain. On the rocky sites, the SSR was more reliable than the HVSRN at estimating the transfer function of the site, even if the resonance frequency seemed to be well detected by the latter method.  相似文献   

6.
This paper describes a case-history of liquefaction occurred near the village of Vittorito after the April 6, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (moment magnitude Mw = 6.3), approximately 45 km far from the epicentre. In the document, first, an estimation of the seismic motion in the area has been made. Thereafter, the performed geotechnical investigation is described, followed by the application of some fast assessment criteria for the occurrence of liquefaction, recently proposed by the new Italian Building Code. A careful assessment of all the parameters involved in conventional Seed and Idriss (1971) liquefaction analyses is considered. The cyclic resistance ratio CRR is evaluated by cone penetration tests CPT and by in situ seismic dilatometer tests SMDT; in the latter case CRR is evaluated by different empirical correlations with shear wave velocity Vs and horizontal stress index KD. Analytical data confirmed the observed occurrence of the liquefaction in Vittorito, even if the acceleration field in the area, produced by the L’Aquila earthquake, was very low.  相似文献   

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8.
Eighteen papers are included in Volume 1 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: case studies of earthquake-generated tsunamis; tsunami forecast and hazard assessments; and theoretical and computational modeling of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal behavior. Most of the papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14?C16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect the current state of tsunami science.  相似文献   

9.
The 2009 Mw 6.3 L’Aquila event caused extensive damage in the city of L’Aquila and in some small towns in its vicinity. The most severe damage was recognized SE of L’Aquila town along the Aterno river valley. Although building vulnerability and near-source effects are strongly responsible for the high level of destruction, site effects have been invoked to explain the damage heterogeneities and the similarities between the 2009 macroseismic field with the intensities of historical earthquakes. The small village of Onna is settled on quaternary alluvium and suffered during the L’Aquila event an extremely heavy damage in the masonry structures with intensity IX–X on the Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg (MCS) scale. The village of Monticchio, far less than 1.3 km from Onna, is mostly situated on Mesozoic limestone and suffered a smaller level of damaging (VI MCS). In the present paper, we analyze the aftershock recordings at seismic stations deployed in a small area of the middle-Aterno valley including Onna and Monticchio. The aim is to investigate local amplification effects caused by the near-surface geology. Because the seismological stations are close together, vulnerability and near-source effects are assumed to be constant. The waveform analysis shows that the ground motion at Onna is systematically characterized by large high-frequency content. The frequency resonance is varying from 2 to 3 Hz and it is related to alluvial sediments with a thickness of about 40 m that overlay a stiffer Pleistocene substrate. The ground motion recordings of Onna are well reproduced by the predictive equation for the Italian territory.  相似文献   

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11.
We present a fresh look at the source region of the 22 January 2003 M w 7.4 Armería earthquake, which occurred off the Pacific coast of the state of Colima, Mexico, near the town of Armería. The effects of this earthquake in the neighboring states of Colima and Jalisco were different and stronger than those of previous recent major earthquakes in the region. This earthquake and its aftershocks were recorded by two local telemetered seismograph networks (RESCO and RESJAL). From 22 January to 24 January 2003, no important seismicity was located on the plates interface, or within the Rivera Plate, and most epicenters were located west of the Armería River, which is the western border of the Colima Graben, and is located outside of the Colima Gap region. From 24 January to 31 January, the seismicity recorded by both networks showed a migration in depth, with an almost vertical offshore distribution between 4 and 24?km in depth. For this period, a seven-station portable digital seismograph network, equipped with three-component seismometers, was deployed in the epicentral area to study the aftershock sequence in detail. With this denser network more than 200 M L?>?2.0 aftershocks were recorded. The aftershock foci were deeper than those recorded during the early period and most of them locate on a hypothetical 12° dipping interface between the Rivera and North American Plates. Composite focal mechanism solutions for the aftershocks located during both periods indicate a reverse fault character that changes with time. Analysis of the new dataset still indicates that the earthquake was a shallow intraplate event.  相似文献   

12.
On 22 January 2003, the M w?=?7.6 Tecomán earthquake struck offshore of the state of Colima, Mexico, near the diffuse triple junction between the Cocos, Rivera, and North American plates. Three-hundred and fifty aftershocks of the Tecomán earthquake with magnitudes between 2.6 and 5.8, each recorded by at least 7 stations, are relocated using the double difference method. Initial locations are determined using P and S readings from the Red Sismológica Telemétrica del Estado de Colima (RESCO) and a 1-D velocity model. Because only eight RESCO stations were operating immediately following the Tecomán earthquake, uncertainties in the initial locations and depths are fairly large, with average uncertainties of 8.0?km in depth and 1.4?km in the north?Csouth and east?Cwest directions. Events occurring between 24 January and 31 January were located using not only RESCO phase readings but also additional P and S readings from 11 temporary stations. Average uncertainties decrease to 0.8?km in depth, 0.3?km in the east?Cwest direction, and 0.7?km in the north?Csouth direction for events occurring while the temporary stations were deployed. While some preliminary studies of the early aftershocks suggested that they were dominated by shallow events above the plate interface, our results place the majority of aftershocks along the plate interface, for a slab dipping between approximately 20° and 30°. This is consistent with the slab positions inferred from geodetic studies. We do see some upper plate aftershocks that may correspond to forearc fault zones, and faults inland in the upper plate, particularly among events occurring more than 3?months after the mainshock.  相似文献   

13.
A global catalog of small- to large-sized earthquakes was systematically analyzed to identify causality and correlatives between human-made mass shifts in the upper Earth??s crust and the occurrence of earthquakes. The mass shifts, ranging between 1?kt and 1?Tt, result from large-scale geoengineering operations, including mining, water reservoirs, hydrocarbon production, fluid injection/extractions, deep geothermal energy production and coastal management. This article shows evidence that geomechanical relationships exist with statistical significance between (a) seismic moment magnitudes M of observed earthquakes, (b) lateral distances of the earthquake hypocenters to the geoengineering ??operation points?? and (c) mass removals or accumulations on the Earth??s crust. Statistical findings depend on uncertainties, in particular, of source parameter estimations of seismic events before instrumental recoding. Statistical observations, however, indicate that every second, seismic event tends to occur after a decade. The chance of an earthquake to nucleate after 2 or 20?years near an area with a significant mass shift is 25 or 75?%, respectively. Moreover, causative effects of seismic activities highly depend on the tectonic stress regime in which the operations take place (i.e., extensive, transverse or compressive). Results are summarized as follows: First, seismic moment magnitudes increase the more mass is locally shifted on the Earth??s crust. Second, seismic moment magnitudes increase the larger the area in the crust is geomechanically polluted. Third, reverse faults tend to be more trigger-sensitive than normal faults due to a stronger alteration of the minimum vertical principal stress component. Pure strike-slip faults seem to rupture randomly and independently from the magnitude of the mass changes. Finally, mainly due to high estimation uncertainties of source parameters and, in particular, of shallow seismic events (<10?km), it remains still very difficult to discriminate between induced and triggered earthquakes with respect to the data catalog of this study. However, first analyses indicate that small- to medium-sized earthquakes (<M6) seem to be induced and large-sized events (>M6) seem to be triggered. The rupture propagation of triggered events might be dominated by pre-existing tectonic stress conditions.  相似文献   

14.
On April 6, 2009, the town of L’Aquila in the Abruzzo region (central Italy) was struck by a seismic event at 01:32 (UTC), of magnitude MW = 6.3. The mainshock was followed by a long period of intense seismic activity and within seven days after the mainshock there were seven events of magnitude MW ≥ 5 that occurred from April 6 to April 13. This long seismic sequence was characterized by a complex rupture mechanism that involved two major normal faults of the central Apennines: the Paganica and the Gorzano faults. The strong-motions of the mainshock were recorded by 64 stations of the Italian Strong-motion Network (RAN) operated by the National Civil Protection Department (DPC). Six stations of a local strong-motion array were working in NW L’Aquila suburb area. One of them, located at about 6 km from the Paganica fault surface tip-line, set up in trigger mode, recorded continuously for more than 20 min the mainshock and the aftershocks. Besides the mainshock, the RAN stations recorded in total 78 foreshocks and aftershocks of ML ≥ 3.5, during the period from January to December 2009. The corresponding waveforms provide the most extensive digital strong ground motion data set ever recorded in Italy. Moreover, the 48 three-component observations of events of magnitude MW ≥ 5, recorded at a distance less than 15 km from each of the major involved faults, provide a significant increasing of near-field records available for the Italian territory. Six days after the mainshock, the strong-motion dataset, referred to preliminary locations of the events with ML ≥ 4.0, was made available on the DPC web site () and at the same time it was delivered to the ITACA database (). This dataset has been used by many authors in scientific papers and by engineers, geophysicists and geologists for professional technical works. In this paper, the present-day available strong-motion signals from the L’Aquila sequence and the performance of the Italian strong-motion network in terms of the number and quality of recorded data, the geometry and data transmission system are described. In addition the role of the temporary network that represents an extension of the permanent Italian strong-motion network, supporting the emergency response by civil protection authorities and improving the network coverage has been evaluated.  相似文献   

15.
In Italy infills and partitions (non-structural elements) are typically made up of hollow brick masonry, disposed in one or two parallel vertical walls. Many studies have analysed their role on the seismic behaviour of moment resisting framed RC buildings and many seismic codes, all over the world, have provided specific additional measures for them. During the Abruzzo seismic sequence, non-structural damage in RC buildings, both private and public, was extensive, varying from small cracks to collapse, along with minor or no damage to structural elements. This damage involved a number of buildings, both old and recently completed, determining heavy socio-economic consequences, including human casualties, loss of building functionality (particularly important in case of strategic constructions), and unusable buildings. In this paper a review of the most frequent damage patterns is performed, aimed at identifying the main causes of damage and linking them to commonly adopted construction rules. For this purpose, local and global structural configurations frequently exhibiting non-structural damage are described, aside from out-of-plane and in-plane failures. Furthermore, a review of code provisions on non structural elements has been performed in the paper making reference to the most prominent current seismic codes and, finally, some design and construction rules are suggested.  相似文献   

16.
We exploit S-wave spectral amplitudes from 112 aftershocks (3.0 ≤ ML ≤ 5.3) of the L’Aquila 2009 seismic sequence recorded at 23 temporary stations in the epicentral area to estimate the source parameters of these events, the seismic attenuation characteristics and the site amplification effects at the recording sites. The spectral attenuation curves exhibit a very fast decay in the first few kilometers that could be attributed to the large attenuation of waves traveling trough the highly heterogeneous and fractured crust in the fault zone of the L’Aquila mainshock. The S-waves total attenuation in the first 30 km can be parameterized by a quality factor QS(f) = 23f 0.58 obtained by fixing the geometrical spreading to 1/R. The source spectra can be satisfactorily modeled using the omega-square model that provides stress drops between 0.3 and 60 MPa with a mean value of 3.3±2.8 MPa. The site responses show a large variability over the study area and significant amplification peaks are visible in the frequency range from 1 to more than 10 Hz. Finally, the vertical component of the motion is amplified at a number of sites where, as a consequence, the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) method fails in detecting the amplitude levels and in few cases the resonance frequencies.  相似文献   

17.
A temporary network of 33 seismic stations was deployed in the area struck by the 6th April 2009, Mw 6.1 (Scognamiglio et?al. in Seism Res Lett 6/81, 2010), L??Aquila earthquake (central Italy), with the aim to investigate the site amplification within the Aterno river Valley. The seismograms of 18 earthquakes recorded by 14 of the 33 stations were used to evaluate the average horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) for each site and the standard horizontal spectral ratio (SSR) between a site and a reference station. The obtained results have been compared to the geological and geophysical information in order to explain the resonance frequencies and the amplification levels with respect to surface geology of the valley. The results indicate that there is no uniform pattern of amplification, because of the complex geologic setting, as the thickness and degree of cementation of the deposits is highly variable.  相似文献   

18.
The earthquake of April 6th, 2009 in the L’Aquila area is one of the largest seismic events of the last years in Italy. The event, that caused significant damage in a large area of the Abruzzo region (cental Italy) and site amplification phenomena which were recorded even at large distances from the epicentre. After the emergency period, a detailed study of the surface effects was necessary for the post-earthquake reconstruction, but in a way it should be carried out rapidly enough to give instructions to urban planners, codes to public administrators and information to engineers. A team of surveyors were trained to collect field information such as geologic and geomorphologic features and geotechnical or geophysical information. The seismic inputs, for the numerical analyses, were provided, and the collected information were analyzed with the aid of dynamic codes to calculate the possible local site effects. The results are presented as acceleration response spectra, amplification coefficients (FA, FV and FH) and microzonation maps, aimed to urban planning and project design. In particular the more dangerous areas, affected by the higher amplification effects, were identified. Finally a comparison between the results obtained by the numerical analyses and the results derived from an experimental field analysis, measuring both earthquake weak motion and ambient noise, were performed. In this paper we present the results for one of the most severely damaged area (up to IX-X MCS), the Paganica–Tempera–Onna-San Gregorio area, located 6 to 10 km east of the April 6th main shock.  相似文献   

19.
On April 6, 2009 a ML = 5.8 earthquake hit the city of L’Aquila on the Apennine chain in central Italy. Notwithstanding the moderate-size event the L’Aquila city and several small villages along the Aterno river valley suffered severe damage, because of the unusual strong motions, mainly due to proximity to the fault (estimated hypocentral depth of about 10 km). In this paper the main features of the recorded motion are discussed. Four accelerometric stations were located within the surface projection of the fault and recorded peak values ranging from 0.4 to 0.6 g. The recorded motions were characterised by short durations and high peak accelerations both in the horizontal and vertical directions. The strong portions of vertical and horizontal motions occurred almost simultaneously due to the short travel paths of P and S waves from the fault to the ground surface near the fault area. Hence site response analyses were performed for the sites where recording stations were located. The geotechnical subsoil model was derived by boreholes, in situ dynamic tests (D-H and SDMT) and by laboratory tests (RCT). One-dimensional numerical analyses were carried out employing the well known computer code EERA. The numerical model was calibrated, in the linear equivalent range, by comparing numerical results with the horizontal acceleration recorded components.  相似文献   

20.
In this study near field strong ground motion generation of Mw 6.9 scenario events on Gemlik Bay was presented at broadband frequency (0.5–10 Hz) ground motion at 9 stations. In the first stage of the study, focal mechanism of a small earthquake, which was used as the Empirical Green’s Function (EGF) throughout the scenario simulation, was decided by simulating it with a smaller magnitude event. The best waveform fitting was judged with the smallest misfit value. In the second stage, near field ground motion simulation of scenario events was performed. Calculations were achieved by considering three different rupture processes which have the same magnitude but different asperity locations. Fault and asperity parameters for each scenario were determined from empirical scaling laws. It has been found that the peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocities reach maximum values of 1,440 cm/s2 and 125 cm/s, respectively for the worst case scenario. Rupture directivity effect is observed with clear peaks at a forward station. The design spectra for Turkish seismic design code (TSDC 2007) were either nearly or actually exceeded by the scenario earthquakes at periods lower than 0.6  s at all near field stations. Majority of structures in the area were built to lower design spectra before the 1998 code was implemented. The strength of many structures would have been insufficient to resist the forces that may be generated by an earthquake that is similar to Scenario I and Scenario II in this study.  相似文献   

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